Final Thoughts and Pick for the National Title

Alabama was the better team other than its special teams the last time around. That won't happen again. Either Alabama will be better again and it won't matter or LSU will be the better team.

The best quarterback will win the game. A.J. McCarron was average against LSU the first time around. He missed some plays and some pickups that he will have to do better with. Jordan Jefferson has been as schizophrenic as ever since returning to the lineup. He was great against Arkansas and awful against Georgia.

Les Miles is the best coach in this game. Conventional wisdom says Nick Saban is the better coach in part because his reputation and previous coaching stops say so. The reality is that Les Miles doesn't lose with extra time to prepare. Since getting to LSU, Miles has lost one game with more than one week to prepare his team. The only loss was to Penn St. in a bowl game with a terrible field two seasons ago. Included in those stats are the last two years against Alabama, where LSU was an underdog and won anyway. Given extra time, Miles just doesn't lose and while Saban is very good, Miles has proven to be better.

There will be touchdowns. In the first game, both teams had plenty of opportunities to score touchdowns and didn't take advantage. In this game, all it takes is one. One touchdown for either side will open the offenses a bit and allow some scoring to occur.

The gameplans won't be so relentlessly conservative this time. In the first game, Alabama started throwing the ball a bit, but went more and more into a shell as the game went on. LSU was conservative from the start and never came out of the shell (possibly out of necessity with Jordan Jefferson coming on in relief of ineffective Jarrett Lee). Both teams will be more aggressive and both will find some success with that aggressiveness that neither found in the first game.

Special teams won't play a major role. Conventional wisdom says special teams are a big part of expected close, defensive games like this one. It won't matter much. There won't be a game changing play on special teams here. No blocked punts, no big kick returns, nothing. Except maybe a missed kick, but nothing beyond the ordinary level.

Alabama can't come from behind. A.J. McCarron is just not going to be able to come from behind if they get behind more than one score. He can't get the passing game cranked up well enough (no deep balls) and he has never been behind as the starting qb. Even in the first game, he never trailed, only losing on the final play.

Whichever team hits the first deep ball will win the game. Neither team hit anything down the field in the first game. This time, I expect more of the same. Except this time, I expect someone to find something deep and whichever team does it first will win the game because of the space it gives to the running game.

Trent Richardson is not the key for the Alabama offense. Yes, Richardson is the most likely MVP for Alabama in the game. He also was the best player on offense for either team in the last game. None of that mattered. It didn't matter because Richardson can't do everything on his own. Where was Marquis Maze and the passing game? It disappeared at the 30 yard line, every time. If the passing game can't get going, Richardson, once again, won't matter despite being the best offensive player on the field.

The pick: Alabama has more overall talent. It has the better defense. It doesn't have the explosive talent in the positions needed to exploit the LSU defense. Given that, I expect it to be close and low scoring. Not as low scoring as the last time, but low scoring, especially compared to the other BCS games. In a close, low scoring game, the big mistake will decide the game. Last time, Alabama made the big mistakes in the kicking game. This time, Alabama will once again make the big mistake, this time coming from McCarron and the passing game.

LSU 20, Alabama 16

Learning from the past – what to take from the first LSU-Alabama matchup

There are a lot of things to be learned from the first game between LSU and Alabama. Only some of them are relevant to this game. Here are a few of them.

Alabama must figure out a way to throw deep on LSU – In the first game, Alabama had some success in the first half on intermediate passing routes. It found nothing deep (as I suspected might be the case in the pregame analysis). Somehow, someway, Alabama must find a deep pass. And I mean a legit deep ball. Getting Trent Richardson 50 yards on a screen is not a deep ball. Throwing down the field for a long completion, preferably a touchdown is what is needed. If Alabama can do it, even once, it will open the field up. In the last game, only Richardson's greatness kept Alabama from being totally stagnant after the first two drives. The lack of respect for Alabama's receivers by the LSU safeties and coaching staff completely negated everything else and would have negated Richardson too if he wasn't so good. With a deep completion, even one, the rest of the field reopens, including the midrange passes that Alabama used to great effect (seven completions over 15 yards) for the first quarter and a half of the first game.

Jordan Jefferson's legs are the key to the LSU offense – Last time, Jarrett Lee was still the starter for LSU when the game started. By the end of the game, Jefferson was the unquestioned starter. Without Jefferson, LSU wouldn't have got the second field goal that sent the game to overtime. His legs were necessary. Without those legs that make him mobile, Jefferson is Lee with a lower completion percentage and a few less interceptions. Now, he should be ready to play better in round two. At the very least, he should do well with knocking the rust off since he did it in the middle of the first game.

Alabama's defense will not be beaten by traditional means – When Lee was in the game in the first game, Alabama ate the LSU offense alive. I already mentioned Jefferson's legs. In addition, LSU should get the gimmick plays out. The TE Around play that LSU used on 4^th and 1 to seal the win in the 2010 game was a great example of the type of unconventional play calling that will be needed to move the ball on Alabama. Without some plays like that one built for deception at a key time, LSU won't move the ball again and there will be another stalemate.

The Alabama offense will continue to stall just outside the redzone – All game long in the first game, Alabama stalled just before the red zone, causing long field goal attempts. I don't see any reason why that will change in round 2 (making hitting a deep ball for a TD all the more important). The main reason why is the lack of a go to receiver. LSU's corners are so good, the Alabama receivers got erased in the first game. Nowhere does a lack of receivers become more evident than the area between midfield and the redzone. That area, more than any other, is where receivers make the offense go. This is because the defense generally becomes more aggressive in its blitz packages in this area and good receivers allow check downs to be made gaining more yardage. With no receivers open, the extra pressure becomes sacks, like what happened to Alabama in overtime. In what we've seen since then, the Alabama receivers just aren't up to the challenge. That means the field goal unit must be ready this time after its failures in the first game.

Fixing the BCS – Because no matter how much people want it, we aren't getting a playoff

There are a ton of problems with the BCS. Everyone is aware of that. And even if they aren't actively thinking about it, nearly everyone has that agitated college football fan friend that is frustrated annually (of course the frustrated friend is all of us discussing this).

Knowing that, I am still pro-BCS. It has done wonders for the popularity of college football (even though everyone hates the system). It has kept the meaning of the regular season (most of the time, there are four terrible cases where the system screwed up badly). It brought the Pac-10 and Big Ten into the system allowing for a true championship game (no matter how much everyone hates the BCS, any year where a Pac-10, now 12, or Big Ten team is in the title game is a point in favor of the BCS because it couldn't have happened before, allowing for split national championships like the 1991 Miami-Washington and 1997 Michigan-Nebraska splits). And it moved college football from a mostly regionalized sport where nobody cared about anyone outside of their own area to a national sport where LSU against Alabama matters in California and Oklahoma against Oklahoma St. matters in Big Ten country. All of these changes are good things for the sport and good things for fans of the sport.

Of course that is the rosy view of the BCS. There are problems. Start with the four total failures of the system where undeserving teams reached the BCS Title Game: 2000 Florida St., 2001 Nebraska, 2003 Oklahoma and 2011 Alabama I am looking at you here. Each of those seasons had teams that caused the majority of America to be outraged at the BCS Title Matchup. Go from there to all of the ridiculous off the reservation choices bringing undeserving teams to BCS games (2011 Virginia Tech and 2007 Kansas most notably). Then add in the automatic bids even for awful champions from BCS Conferences (2011 West Virginia, 2010 Connecticut, 2004 Pittsburgh, 1999 Stanford, 2002 and 2005 Florida St., 2006 Wake Forest). Mix all of that together along with college football's general bizarreness and you get total chaos, regularly, even when there is an argument over teams in teams where the system does its job (2008 Florida-Oklahoma, 2007 Ohio St.-LSU, 2006 Ohio St.-Florida, and 1998 Tennessee-Florida St. are all years where there weren't the perfect two undefeated teams and the system did its job very well, picking deserving teams).

So what needs to be done? As a note, there are some things that I believe are non-starters and so I won't suggest them even though they might be good ideas. Some of these are a selection committee, a plus one system, and eliminating the coaches poll from the system (one of the best ideas anyone has had).

1 Only Conference Champions (or Independents) are allowed to play for the BCS Title – Years system got this wrong: 2001 (Nebraska), 2003 (Oklahoma), 2011 (Alabama)

The argument in favor of the BCS is that the regular season means everything. If the regular season means everything, then winning your conference is a prerequisite. In a playoff type system, the playoff means everything so this is less of an issue. But everyone wants to keep the best regular season in sports. That means only Conference Champions need apply for the National Championship.

Matchups in failed years under this system – 2001 Miami vs Colorado (replaces Nebraska), 2003 LSU vs USC (replaces Oklahoma), 2011 LSU vs Oklahoma St. (replaces Alabama)

2 Give the BCS formula a makeover with the computers having more power

I know some will say that the computers had too much power, causing some of the stupid matchup in the early years of the system. That is exactly right. The computers did have too much power in the early days of the system. Now though, they have too little. When the formula was changed after the 2003 debacle, the influence of the computers went from too much to too little. Now, it is 1/3 of the rankings. In the early BCS days, the computers were closer to 2/3. It really should be half. The computers need to have a say because they are objective and unbiased. They don't need the entire say because computers can only read the data. And the data being put into them is often flawed (especially right now, more on that later). Despite that, there is space for the computers to have a legitimate say in matters here. We need some objectivity.

3 Make changes to the computer components

This goes along with number 2. Right now, the computers are limited in what they can do. Other than a cap on Margin of Victory (but bring it back), let the computer programmers do whatever the heck they want. The only rules are a three touchdown cap on Margin of Victory and the formula being used must be released to the public, even if nobody in the public would understand what the heck is actually happening with the formula. From there, more computers should be brought into the system. There needs to be a cross section of computer rankings. Kenneth Massey (who runs one of the BCS computer rankings) keeps a composite ranking that includes over 100 different computers plus the human polls and the BCS in a composite rankings. Why not go get some of those rankings that take some different things into account and broaden the spectrum of computer rankings? If nothing else, having more of them could allow them to be easily arranged into a poll like set of rankings that the public can more easily digest than what occurs now (when they are just dismissed) or what happened with the old formula (when the public yelled WTF is going on, get rid of these stupid things because I don't understand).

4 Automatic BCS bids to any conference champion of any league that finishes in the top 8, at-large pool extends to 14.

Rose and Sugar Bowls automatically get their traditional champions if in the top 8 and not in the National Title Game. Rose Bowl always gets first at-large pick to take either the Pac-12 or Big Ten Champ if ranked below 8 and in top 14 as Rose Bowl would not allow this plan otherwise.

Does this fix everything we have with undeserving teams getting into the BCS? No. Of course not. As long as the bowls are involved, there are going to be some befuddling picks. Would it fix a lot of the problems that we have seen the last few years? Absolutely.

5 Three team limit per conference instead of two

Do some want the cap eliminated entirely? Yes. That just can't happen. No conference is strong enough to be deserving of sucking up four out of ten BCS slots. The only way to get four teams ranked that high is to be top heavy, meaning it is likely that at least one of those teams is overrated and not really deserving (2011 South Carolina I'm looking at you). In the rare event that none of those teams was overrated (2010 SEC West), well the lesser bowls will be glad to have you as always and you should have beaten the better teams in your league when you had the chance. That said, the unbalanced schedules that nearly every league now plays makes a cap of two teams as exists presently impractical.

With those changes (in particular 1 and 4 that we can apply to ), this is how things may have looked each season since the expansion of the BCS in 2006 (I didn't worry about pick order too much so the teams would likely be close but the matchups off).

2011	Actual	New System	3 Auto-Bids – LSU, OK St., Oregon
BCS Title	LSU vs Alabama	LSU vs Oklahoma St.	No non-conference champs allowed
Rose	Oregon vs Wisconsin	Oregon vs Wisconsin
Sugar	Michigan vs Virginia Tech	Alabama vs Baylor	With Alabama dropping down, no need or desire for VT
Fiesta	Stanford vs Oklahoma St.	Kansas St. vs Stanford	With Ok St. in the BCS Game, KSt. Lands here to replace
Orange	Clemson vs West Virginia	Arkansas vs Michigan	2 team cap abolished gets Orange a good game, finally
2010	Actual	New System	5 Auto-Bids – Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma
BCS Title	Auburn vs Oregon	Auburn vs Oregon
Rose	TCU vs Wisconsin	Stanford vs Wisconsin	Rose Bowl gets desired matchup, sorry TCU
Sugar	Arkansas vs Ohio St.	Arkansas vs TCU	Didn't worry about pick order here, these 6 are the teams though
Fiesta	Oklahoma vs Connecticut	Oklahoma vs Michigan St.
Orange	Stanford vs Virginia Tech	Ohio St. vs LSU
2009	Actual	New System	8 Auto-Bids, Bowl pairings unchanged
BCS Title	Alabama vs Texas	Alabama vs Texas
Rose	Oregon vs Ohio St.	Oregon vs Ohio St.
Sugar	Florida vs Cincinnati	Florida vs Cincinnati
Fiesta	TCU vs Boise St.	TCU vs Boise St.
Orange	Georgia Tech vs Iowa	Georgia Tech vs Iowa
2008	Actual	New System	5 Auto-Bids – Oklahoma, Florida, USC, Utah, Penn St.
BCS Title	Oklahoma vs Florida	Oklahoma vs Florida
Rose	USC vs Penn St.	USC vs Penn St.
Sugar	Alabama vs Utah	Alabama vs Texas Tech	No 2 team limits allows Texas Tech
Fiesta	Texas vs Ohio St.	Texas vs Utah	Utah is pick since Ohio St. would be off board
Orange	Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech	Ohio St. vs Georgia Tech	GT is a stretch, but options were lacking (Boise finished 9th, no AQ)
2007	Actual	New System	5 Auto-Bids – Ohio St., LSU, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, USC
BCS Title	Ohio St. vs LSU	Ohio St. vs LSU
Rose	USC vs Illinois	USC vs Illinois
Sugar	Georgia vs Hawaii	Georgia vs Missouri	Hawaii finished 10th (No AQ) and Missouri was deserving
Fiesta	Oklahoma vs West Virginia	Oklahoma vs West Virginia
Orange	Virginia Tech vs Kansas	Virginia Tech vs Florida	If you have to have undefeated Hawaii, replace Florida
2006	Actual	New System	5 Auto-Bids – Ohio St., Florida, USC, Louisville, Boise St.
BCS Title	Ohio St. vs Florida	Ohio St. vs Florida
Rose	USC vs Michigan	USC vs Michigan
Sugar	LSU vs Notre Dame	LSU vs Wisconsin	No 2 team limit allows Wisconsin
Fiesta	Oklahoma vs Boise St.	Oklahoma vs Boise St.
Orange	Louisville vs Wake Forest	Notre Dame vs Louisville	Orange is happy to be rid of Wake Forest

Bowl Selection Review (Annual BCS Travesty Included with Admission)

BCS Matchups + First Thoughts

BCS Title Game – LSU vs Alabama

The expected title game. Over the next few weeks, the debate will rage (both here and elsewhere) about if this was really the correct matchup or not (regular readers here know I stand with the anti-rematch group). Nonetheless, the first game was a close game. I expect this to be close too. And also very low scoring. Long layoffs tend to favor the defenses as the offenses lose their timing. That prospect makes an even worse offensive game a possible, but it also brings a defensive touchdown into play that wasn't there in the first meeting. That is LSU's domain as I believe the Tigers will win again and win easily by a score of something like 17-7.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin

The most correct matchup of all the games, this would have been the matchup 40 years ago just the same as today. I was talking with a friend at church earlier tonight about this game and we agreed that Oregon has more ways to win this game, especially with Wisconsin lacking defensive linemen like the ones from LSU, Auburn and Ohio St. that have killed the Ducks the last few seasons.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Stanford

The Title Game's loss is the Fiesta Bowl's gain as the Fiesta Bowl gets the best matchup of the bowl season with Andrew Luck and the Oklahoma St. offense set for a wild shootout. That said, the Oklahoma St. defense will win this game. With turnovers as Luck has been surprisingly susceptible to interceptions at some bad times in games this season.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Virginia Tech

The Sugar Bowl went off the reservation with this pick and they are going to pay for it with a bad football game. Virginia Tech just isn't very good and the signs have been there all season despite a terrible schedule (remember that I picked Virginia Tech for the BCS Title Game in the preseason because of that schedule that, other than Clemson's surprise improvement, was every bit as bad as it appeared) that allowed the Hokies to rack up wins. Clemson destroyed them twice. Miami nearly came back from oblivion to take a 4^th quarter shootout in Blacksburg. North Carolina gave the Hokies a good run in Blacksburg as well. There were no games against teams that finished ranked except the Clemson games. This won't be the same. The Hokies will be tested and they will fail against Denard Robinson and Michigan's improved defense.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs West Virginia

This bowl is actually quite happy, all things considered. Though this matchup is weaker than quite a few non-BCS games, it is an immense improvement over a week ago. A week ago, this bowl was looking at 7-5 Louisville against Virginia Tech for the 4^th time in six years. As for the game, Clemson is the balanced version of West Virginia with more skill position talent. The result will reflect that.

Who got screwed (BCS Title Version)? Oklahoma St.

Oklahoma St. should have been in the BCS Title Game. The reasons have been stated over and over all over the place (except for on ESPN where everyone is 'mysteriously' pro-rematch this season), so I won't get into it here and now because it will go on for quite some time. It is an argument for a full post.

Who got screwed (BCS Version)? Boise St. or Kansas St.

Looking at the rest of the BCS games, there are two teams that could make a decent BCS case for the Sugar Bowl spot opposite Michigan (let's be honest here about Michigan who went 10-2 and has a huge fanbase and tv cache. The Wolverines were all but conceded in at 10-2 weeks ago and I have no problem with it despite its slightly lower ranking). Boise St. is the highest ranked team other than SEC 3 Arkansas (who can't go) not in the BCS. There is a case to be made for them to be in the BCS, even with a loss (though I find Boise's overall resume lacking and not quite BCS worthy this season). I think Kansas St. should have gotten the call for this game. The Wildcats were 10-2 in the conference ranked as the best in the country by the computers (another reason Oklahoma St. should be in the championship game) and finished in the top 10. Also, its fans travel extremely well because any chance to get out of cold, snowy Kansas in December-January is one you take. I don't think Virginia Tech will be traveling all that well as a disappointed fanbase but that's just me.

Who got screwed (Rest of Bowls)?

Penn St. - The players weren't the ones that perpetrated the scandal. Sad for them that they fell all the way to the TicketCity Bowl. Just awful for a team (emphasis on team and not program) that deserved better (even if they got a better opponent than expected with Houston).

Alamo Bowl – Obviously, the Alamo Bowl didn't know USC was staring at 2 years bowlless when they signed to bring in the Pac-12's second pick, but that and the Pac-12 getting 2 in the BCS both years so far has killed this game. Last season, it was 7-5 Arizona (instead of bowl ineligible USC) coming in with a four game losing streak to be sacrificed to Oklahoma St. This season, its 7-5 Washington (instead of bowl ineligible USC) and its flammable pass defense to play against Robert Griffin III and the most prolific deep passing game in college football.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl – This bowl works on behalf of a good cause (much better than when it was the Diamond Walnuts Emerald Bowl), but they got stuck with the biggest turd of the bowl season, no question. UCLA and its 6-7 record with a waiver to even be allowed to play and no coach is going to be a big favorite in this game somehow. Of course that somehow is that the Bruins are playing Illinois, former home of Ron Zook and possessors of a six game losing streak. In addition to the horrible matchup, this bowl also got a horrible time slot this season. They are on New Year's Eve in the middle of the day at the same time as Georgia Tech vs Utah in the Sun Bowl and Cincinnati vs Vanderbilt in the Liberty Bowl. Either of those games is far more appetizing.

Who got a gift?

Cotton Bowl – Talk about a charmed existence. This game got Arkansas and Kansas St. in a game that is a better matchup than two of the BCS games. This the year after getting the kickoff of LSU's championship run. Things are starting to go really well for this game again after a long spell of dry years.

Southern Miss – Normally, the Conference USA champion gets a trip to Memphis for the Liberty Bowl. Because of some odd contractual shenanigans between the SEC, Big East and the bowl in Birmingham, Southern Miss gets a Hawaiian vacation instead. Believe me, Christmas Eve in Hawaii is a much better proposition than New Year's Eve in Memphis, and if you want to experience both, Memphis close enough to Southern Miss that the players can do that if they so choose (though I have no idea why unless Memphis is home).

ACC teams other than Clemson and Florida St. - Clemson earned its way into the BCS. Florida St. was locked into the Champs Sports Bowl against Notre Dame pretty much no matter what. Virginia Tech got a gift Sugar Bowl bid and everyone else benefits from moving up one slot in the pecking order. In particular, Virginia should be happy to be going to Atlanta and the Chick-fil-a Bowl to play Auburn instead of the Belk Bowl or the Music City Bowl.

New Year's Day Football Fans – The games are on January 2 this season (because the 1^st is on a Sunday), but they are the best set of New Year's games in a long time. In the morning, we get Penn St-Houston, Michigan St.-Georgia, Ohio St.-Florida and South Carolina-Nebraska. Then we get a traditional Rose Bowl with Wisconsin-Oregon. After that, we get the best matchup of the BCS with Stanford-Oklahoma St. I have nothing to complain about there. It will be a great day of football.

Why there should never be a BCS Title Rematch

I am staunchly anti-rematch. Back in 1996, I understood Florida getting a rematch against Florida St. because it was before the BCS system and before the Pac-10 and Big Ten were allowed into the championship game. In some years in that era, it was unavoidable. The Big Ten and Pac-10 champions were ranked too high for any other outcome to be possible. That said, I still didn't like the rematch and would have favored Nebraska to get the spot over Florida had they not lost to Texas in the Big 12 Championship game.

I bring this up because we, unless you have been living under a rock (which is certainly possible for some of you), are staring down the barrel of an LSU-Alabama rematch. And I don't like it at all. Here are my reasons:

There is not enough non-conference play to determine with sort of true merit that two teams that played each other are definitively better than everyone else in college football, even if it appears to be so.

In the context of this season, I bring to you the Big 12. Yes, Iowa St. is a middling Big 12 team. So is Texas Tech. Those two teams beat the elite of the conference: Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. But if you look closer, neither team lost a non-conference game. They only played three each and both teams won all of them. How can we say, with any certainty that these teams are weaker or stronger than middling SEC teams like Auburn and Florida (who, by the way, are higher on the SEC foodchain this season than Iowa St. and Texas Tech are on the Big 12 foodchain)? We can't, because we haven't seen enough evidence. We can speculate and guess (if I had to, I would guess Auburn would beat both Big 12 schools and Florida would beat Texas Tech but not Iowa St.), but there is no empirical evidence that one set of teams is better than the other. This applies to the conference as a whole, an increasing problem when conferences are often judged as a whole.

So if the loser beats the winner, which should be ranked higher

Obivously, the one that should be ranked higher is the one with the better body of work. Except in the BCS, if we have a rematch and Alabama wins, they will be the champion with an inferior body of work. I'm ok with this normally with a head to head win, but not when the loser would also have a head to head win. Honestly, if I were voting and we have a rematch, an Alabama win doesn't affect my vote at all. LSU is the number 1 team in a rematch scenario, period.

Shouldn't the National Champion also have to win its conference

Obviously, this is not the case in some other sports (college basketball in particular where every so often you get a champion that won neither its regular season or conference tournament championships), but those sports have playoffs that are designed to reward more teams with a postseason trip and a shot at the title. This sport also rewards teams, but with a bowl game. Not a championship shot. And as long as that is the case and only two out of 120 get a shot at it, the National Champion should be a conference champion unless they aren't in a conference. Go back to 2001 and 2003. How loud was the screaming that non-conference champions got into the National Championship Game. How loud would it have been had Michigan gotten a rematch against Ohio St. without even a share of the conference championship (particularly from the same SEC country that is now arguing in favor of an Alabama-LSU rematch)? With all of that and the whole we won the conference over the National Champions thing to stain the title and it's just not worth it.

Every game counts right

The crux of the argument. In the BCS, every game is supposed to count. And, despite all the controversy in past years, every game has counted (expect one). Even in 2001 when Nebraska didn't win its division and got to the title game, there were many things that could have prevented (chief among them being the playing of the Washington St.-Colorado game canceled because of 9/11 that would have lifted either 2-loss Colorado or Pac-10 Champ Oregon into the championship game) the Cornhuskers from reaching the game. The one time a game didn't count, we got the single most unsatisfying result of the BCS era, and that's saying something considering the existence of so many unfulfilled seasons and controversies. That year was the year of the split national title because the Oklahoma-Kansas St. game didn't count in the eyes of the BCS. Now, we have reached the same point. The LSU-Alabama would not have counted in the eyes of the BCS if we get a rematch and we are setting ourselves up for a fate that is quite awful and terrible if we allow it... of course the fact that it is so awful and terrible for the BCS, is one of the many reasons people are in favor of a rematch.

Week 13 BCS Breakdown

I have already poured over the standings (along with my team of super inteeligent monkeys and the extra voices in my head) to figure out everything anyone needs to know about the BCS this season. Here it is.

Standings (with projected bowl)

1 LSU (National Championship Game)

2 Alabama (National Championship Game)

3 Arkansas (Capital One Bowl)

4 Oklahoma St. (Cotton Bowl)

5 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

6 Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)

7 Boise St. (Poinsettia Bowl)

8 Houston (Sugar Bowl)

9 Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl)

10 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Teams in National Title Race and what they need to reach the title game

LSU – Win remaining games.

Alabama – Win remaining games, Oklahoma St. loss wouldn't hurt but may not be necessary

Arkansas – Win out, either Alabama or Oklahoma St. (and possibly both) need to lose

Oklahoma St. - Beat Oklahoma, Arkansas must lose to LSU, Alabama might need to lose to Auburn. SEC Championship Game upset would be helpful.

Virginia Tech – Win out, get an Oklahoma St. loss and then hope there is extreme distaste for a rematch and Stanford doesn't win the Pac-12.

Stanford – Win out, probably need the conference title meaning an Oregon loss to Oregon St. and the entire Virginia Tech scenario.

BCS Bowl Projections + explanations

National Title Game – LSU vs Alabama

Nobody really wants a rematch, but there won't be another choice when Oklahoma St. loses to Oklahoma. Even if the pollsters move Stanford or Virginia Tech over Alabama, the margin won't be big and the computers will keep Alabama in the 2 slot.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin

Oregon may have lost to USC, but the likelihood of them losing to Oregon St. or whoever comes out of the Pac-12 South at home is slim to none. As for Wisconsin, they are going to beat Penn St. at home and then get their revenge against Michigan St.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford

Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma St. to win the Big 12 and take an automatic berth to this game. With the first pick after National Title Game participants are replaced (Sugar picks first), the Fiesta will take Stanford with Michigan off the board.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Houston

This bowl is in a bad spot. They will be unable to get an SEC team as a replacement like usual. Given that, they will take an excited Michigan fanbase and Houston because as bad as Houston might be in the eyes of the bowls, the Big East Champion is going to be far worse.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs West Virginia

Given the misery that this game goes through annually (deservingly I might add), this is about as good as could be hoped for with the matchup likely to be ACC-Big East again. At least it is a rivalry that hasn't been played in awhile.

Who gets snubbed in this scenario?

Arkansas at 10-2 is beaten by the 2-team rule

The Sugar Bowl can't get its desired SEC team

Boise St. will be ranked higher than many of the BCS participants

Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. will both finish 10-2 and get left out of BCS games

The Orange Bowl will have the ratings poison of ACC Champ against Big East Champ (again, this bowl will be by far the happiest of the bowls to be rid of AQ's)

The people who have to watch the Big East Champ in a BCS Game (though this happens in any scenario)

BCS Bowl Projections and the race to the title game Week 10

Projections are made with future results in mind. Also note that the teams projected may not be the most deserving teams. That is the way bowl games work.

National Championship – LSU vs Oklahoma

LSU is going to win out. Not much question there. In the other spot, I think everyone else except Boise St. gets beat amongst the undefeated teams. At that point, Oklahoma, as the team doing the beating of Oklahoma St., jumps Boise into the title game.

Rose Bowl – Stanford vs Ohio St.

Ohio St. is going to win out. Do that and all they need is a Penn St. loss to either Nebraska or Wisconsin to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Given the current turmoil off the field at Penn St., I like the Buckeyes chances. As for Stanford, I project a loss, but to Notre Dame, not this week to Oregon.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Wisconsin

Oklahoma St. slides right in replacing Oklahoma as the Big 12 rep. As for Wisconsin, they will be irresistible at 2 losses for any bowl game with the traveling horde that follows them. If available, this bowl will take Oklahoma and Nebraska in less than a second, even if one or both are not entirely deserving.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St.

The game everyone really wants to see, and it happens when the Fiesta passes on Boise St. after having had them twice in the last five years.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Cincinnati

This bowl is still paying for all the favors it took in the pre-BCS era and for the Iowa-USC matchup in 2002. Given that they are stuck with the ACC Champion (though Clemson is, by far, the best non-Florida St. or Miami tv draw in the league) and the last pick, this matchup is destined to suck this season.

National Title Contenders

LSU – Win out, play for National Title

Oklahoma St. - Win Out, play for National Title

Alabama – Get a wholescale collapse, 2007-style while winning out. Either that or get an Arkansas win over LSU and steal the tiebreaker at the end.

Stanford – Win out and get either and Oklahoma St. or LSU loss. Don't be alarmed at number 4 ranking this week. As soon as they beat Oregon, that will be rectified.

Boise St. - Win out and get a lot of help. Among the contenders, Boise needs almost. If LSU remains undefeated, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma obviously trump Boise. Oregon and Alabama could be done in by the voters not wanting a title game rematch.

Oklahoma – Win out and get a Stanford loss. Would beat Oklahoma St. along the way. Might need Oklahoma St. to remain undefeated until Bedlam game as well (likely).

Oregon – Win out, hope for a collapse from everyone else and hope the voters prefer a non-conference rematch instead of a conference rematch. Likely done for in the National Title Race without 2 LSU losses to eliminate them.

Arkansas – Win out and win the tiebreaker for the SEC West. Ideally, this would be with an Auburn win over Alabama to eliminate Alabama entirely as winning the 3-way tiebreaker looks impossibly bleak for Arkansas. Also needs a loss by two of Oklahoma St., Oklahoma and Stanford.

Everybody else is completely cooked in the National Title race.

BCS Insanity - Projections and the Like

Projections – These are made with the attempt to predict future games

National Title Game – LSU vs Clemson – These will be the only two undefeated AQ teams, ergo, this will be the title game matchup.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin – Ducks will find a way to beat Stanford while Wisconsin will beat the winner of the Michigan St./Nebraska game this weekend in the Big Ten Title Game.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford – With the Big Ten and SEC off the board and a Big 12 team already in this game, the Fiesta will take one-loss Stanford and pit Andrew Luck against Oklahma's high powered offense.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St. - This matchup should be obvious, especially cinsdiering nobody wants the Big East Champion

Orange Bowl – Nebraska vs Cincinnati – With the second at-large to replace anchor Clemson, the Orange will go for nostalgia (at least for themselves) and pick Nebraska before getting stuck with Big East Champ Cincinnati.

Teams still in hunt for BCS Championship Game and what they need to get there

LSU – Tigers need to win out. A loss will kill them because it would cause them to lose any tiebreakers in SEC West play, meaning they won't win the conference and with no conference title, there will be no national title shot.

Alabama – Not in as dire a straits as LSU if they lose a game (especially if its the Auburn game). As long as Alabama wins the division and there aren't two undefeated AQ teams, Alabama plays for the title even with a loss as long as they win the SEC.

Oklahoma St. - Cowboys win out and play for the title. A loss anywhere against the remaining schedule likely leaves them toast given the possible losses would either cause a lost tiebreaker in conference play or be a loss to the likes of Baylor. That won't get a non-historic powerhouse to the National Championship.

Boise St. - Need to win out and needs either the SEC champ to be the only AQ undefeated or the SEC champ to have two losses with only one other AQ undefeated. Probably would help to be impressive in victory to keep a possible one-loss Big 12 team out of the top spot.

Clemson – Win out, get a loss by the Alabama/LSU winner or Oklahoma St. Win the coin flip over Stanford or have the Cardinal lose.

Stanford – Same scenario as Clemson.

Kansas St. - Win out and play for the title. Lose and enjoy San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.

Oklahoma – Same scenario as Boise St. Might need a loss from Boise St. as well.

Arkansas – Win out and preferably blow LSU out. LSU also needs to beat Alabama. And there need to be no more than 1 AQ undefeated

South Carolina – Win out and have less than 2 AQ undefeateds (Good luck with that one without Lattimore)

Given those scenarios, what is the probability of the chaos so many root for? 10% - The number actually shrinks because Wisconsin is no longer undefeated and the Badgers were likely to get left out if they finished undefeated and there were two other AQ undefeateds.

After the jump are the scenarios for teams to reach one of the lesser BCS games.

BCS Bowl Projections – End of September

These projections will next show up at the end of October and then weekly in November until the BCS pairings are announced in December.

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs LSU

I have changed from my preseason Virginia Tech projection for various reasons (which can be read below). For Oklahoma, they aren't losing at home leaving Oklahoma St. and Texas as the only legit chances to lose. Texas isn't ready yet in its rebuilding process and Oklahoma St. hasn't stopped an Oklahoma offense since 2002. That won't change this season.

As for LSU, their defense is amazing and I think they will be able to bottle up Alabama considering the Crimson Tide has no downfield passing threat whatsoever.

Others considered: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Georgia Tech

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Oregon

Wisconsin has looked incredible thus far against subpar competition. Considering I believe most of the Big Ten is subpar, that won't change though the Badgers will blow a game somewhere along the line in mind-numbing fashion.

As for Oregon, there is no shame in losing to LSU, especially in the opener and I have seen nothing since that leads me to believe anyone in the Pac-12 is going to stop the Duck offense (that includes Stanford).

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Nebraska

While I believe Oklahoma St. will lose a game before the annual loss to Oklahoma, that will still be good enough to get them to the Big 12 tied-in Fiesta Bowl at 10-2. As for their opponent, the Fiesta won't be able to resist the Nebraska traveling fanbase they that haven't gotten in the BCS era despite its previous membership in the Big 12. If Nebraska isn't here, I expect it to be Michigan, who could go 10-2 in a weak Big Ten.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs West Virginia

The Sugar is taking the SEC West runner up barring something unforeseen (Florida upset of Alabama or LSU). When given a choice between Boise St. and West Virginia, the Bowl will go for West Virginia's traveling horde over Boise going halfway across the country.

Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech vs Boise St.

The Yellow Jackets have returned to their form from two years ago, just in time to make Virginia Tech's schedule significantly more difficult. They will win at home against the Hokies to spoil Virginia Tech's undefeated run (if VT even gets past a much improved Clemson) and take their division. This development will also lead the Orange Bowl to try anything is can to get out from the ACC tie-in. The other bowls won't care and won't allow it. Then, to compound matters for the Orange Bowl, they will be hosting a non-AQ for the first time. At this point, bowl executives will want to jump off a building.

After the jump are others considered for BCS slots.

BCS Preview and Picks

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs TCU

Offense: The Wisconsin offense has been a juggernaut since getting things rolling against Ohio St. Since then, nobody has come close to stopping the Badgers. The one question mark is what happens if TCU is able to stop the Wisconsin running game. The defenses in the Big Ten other than Ohio St. and Iowa leave much to be desired and Wisconsin played all the bottom dwellers, with devastating results. The TCU offense has been just as unstoppable, but against the best defense it played against, the TCU offense was held to a season low 27 points by Oregon St. Even though the Horned Frogs can strike quicker and have a better quarterback with Andy Dalton over Scott Tolzien, the Badgers are just better on offense. Edge: Wisconsin

Defense: There is no contest here. TCU has one of the best units if not the best defense in all of college football while Wisconsin has struggled at times, most notably in the loss to Michigan St. and the one-point win over Iowa where opponents scored 30 or more in each game. I still have major questions about the Wisconsin pass defense. Edge: TCU

Coaching: Gary Patterson has been building to a moment like this for a long time, but he and his team have had a tendency to fail in close big games where they are the better team (see last season's Fiesta Bowl against Boise St. and the loss at Utah two seasons ago). That said, he is better than Bret Bielema who finally appeared to get everything straightened out this season on the coaching end after three years of underachievement. Edge: Patterson and TCU

The Pick: TCU will impose its will on this game, but they won't be able to put the Badgers away. They will pay for that late as Wisconsin scores a late touchdown and holds on in the end.

Wisconsin 27, TCU 24

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Connecticut

Offense: Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Broyles are three of the four best offensive players in this game. The other is Jordan Todman of UConn. Considering Zach Frazier and the UConn passing game sometimes take drives, quarters or even full games off, Oklahoma will have the edge here, big. Remember that UConn somehow got to held to 10 points by Michigan's awful defense. Edge: Big to Oklahoma

Defense: Thee UConn defense has actually been quite good, but there are questions as to how much of that was real quality and how much a historically bad offensive conferences where nobody was well-coached or talented enough to actually field a capable offense. For Oklahoma, it has been a roller coaster ride, especially outside of Norman. The Sooners secondary can be had for big plays and the running game is good but not great. Edge: Connecticut

Coaching: Randy Edsall has no track record at this level. Bob Stoops continually gets his teams to this level and even won a few of these games some time ago. Stoops was a hot name for the Florida job. Edsall was no more than a 5^th rate backup plan. Edge: Stoops and Oklahoma

The Pick: UConn will get its points against the suspect Oklahoma secondary, but that won't be enough. The Huskies are about to get incinerated by a quarterback and team looking to start a national title run next season. Oklahoma 49, Connecticut 27

Orange Bowl – Stanford vs Virginia Tech

Offense: Both teams have different but great quarterbacks. Andrew Luck will be the top pick in the draft whenever he enters it while Tyrod Taylor is a big winner who has developed nicely over the course of his career. The difference is in the running game. Stanford wins with the line while Virginia Tech wins with its running backs. The Line is always a better option. Edge: Stanford but not by much

Defense: Stanford lacks depth, but its front line players are as good as anyones and only Oregon and USC (before mailing in the end of the season) did any real damage to the Cardinal (no shame there). Virginia Tech got housed by the Boise St. offense in the opener and continued to have problems early. It looked like the problems were fixed, but Florida St. backup quarterback E.J. Manuel led the Seminoles to 33 points. The Hokie defense isn't at its normal level. Edge: Stanford, slightly.

Coaching: Jim Harbaugh has resurrected Stanford and has been fearless in scheduling, recruiting and play calling. Frank Beamer is one of the best in the business. Should be a good matchup, but I go with the experience. Edge: Beamer and Virginia Tech

The Pick: Both teams are hot, but Stanford has shown warning signs of a loss, most notably the close call in November against Arizona St. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is playing as well as anyone in the country and right now, I would take the Hokies over anyone not playing in the Rose Bowl or the National Title Game. Virginia Tech 34, Stanford 28

Sugar Bowl – Ohio St. vs Arkansas

Offense: Ohio St. is good on offense, but they aren't at this level. Ryan Mallett and Knile Davis are better than anyone on the Ohio St. offensive roster and they have a coach who will let them use all that talent. Edge: Arkansas, big

Defense: Now it flips the other way. Arkansas has nobody at the level of Cameron Heyward and the Ohio St. defense. The Buckeyes are significantly better here.

Coaching: Jim Tressell has had his fair share of bad luck and bad draws in the BCS of late, but he has a national title and two other title game appearances on his resume. Petrino, while good, doesn't have the body of work to match that despite being a better offensive coach.

The Pick: Ohio St. is dealing with off the field distractions. Combine that with Arkansas just being a generally bad matchup for the Buckeyes. Arkansas cruises. Arkansas 31, Ohio St. 20

National Title Game Coming the morning of January 10

BCS Rankings Analysis and Bowl Projections

The top ten didn't change at all this week after everyone won. The big stories of the week are:

Boise St. is now in position to re-jump TCU – The Broncos were the big beneficiaries of a lot of TCU related things. First, TCU was underwhelming against a good San Diego St. team (the Aztecs are roughly equal, maybe slightly better than Hawaii who got obliterated on the blue turf). Second, the collective TCU schedule took the day off with Utah losing at Notre Dame, Baylor losing to Texas A&m and SMU still at home seething after losing to UTEP. Oregon St. also lost (to Washington St. of all teams) but since Boise St. played them too it doesn't hurt TCU, at least in comparison to Boise. This weekend was the worst case scenario for TCU.

Oregon and Auburn are still fine if they win out – Nothing changed here. Both of these teams win out and they play for the title. Now they both have a bye week (as does TCU) to rest and get everything rolling again. This comes just in time for Oregon who got beat up in the win over Cal on Saturday while Auburn would probably want to continue playing and just get everything over with considering all of the Cam Newton stuff that is out there.

Iowa's loss helps Michigan St. - The Hawkeyes lost to Northwestern bringing Michigan st. closer to the needed two way tie with Wisconsin to get to the Rose Bowl. The Spartans are well down in the BCS standings and need to tiebreaker to be head-to-head, something they done have the option of with Ohio St.

LSU who can't win their conference and Stanford who probably won't remain a buffer between the non-BCS schools and the first real one-loss threat – If Auburn or Oregon lose, TCU or Boise St. is going to the title game. With all the Cam Newton stuff out there, a one-loss Auburn that loses to Alabama and wins the SEC isn't getting the benefit of the doubt that a one-loss SEC team normally would. Meanwhile, Oregon with a loss won't have the computer numbers to get to the title game unless they remain number one in the polls, something that won't happen if they lose. With LSU and Stanford not winning their conferences, the non-BCS schools are in the clear because seventh-ranked Wisconsin isn't jumping that far up no matter how many times they score 83 points.

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game - Oregon vs Boise St.

Once Auburn loses to Alabama, the road will be clear for a non-BCS team to play for the title. I think the voters will put Boise St. in that position over TCU as much because of the victory in the Fiesta Bowl last season as anything else. Oregon won't lose at Autzen and Oregon St. seems to be melting down so the Ducks probably won't lose.

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford

I now think with Iowa having lost that Wisconsin will win the Big Ten outright. Michigan St. will lose to Penn St. and Ohio St. will lose to Iowa, but even if those things don't happen, the Badgers win all tiebreakers except to head-to-head with Michigan St. as long as they keep winning. With the non-BCS slot taken in the title game, the Rose Bowl picks Stanford to replace its lost Pac-10 champ, even if the Cardinal lose another game to finish 10-2.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU

If the choice comes down to non-BCS or LSU, the Orange will no doubt take the Tigers. That said, LSU should watch out because a Nebraska loss in the Big 12 Title game could send the Cornhuskers here instead. The Orange has a long and productive relationship with Nebraska and will exploit that in a second if given the opportunity.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Ohio St.

The Sugar picking first is tired of no name teams. They have has Cincinnati, Utah and Hawaii in the last three seasons. No amount of money or pressure is going to get them to pass on whoever is second in the Big 10, even if that team has two losses. I still project Auburn to lose to Alabama and then beat South Carolina putting the Tigers in New Orleans.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

Nebraska will win the Big 12 and Pittsburgh is my best guess out of the Big East. At this point, I would think the Fiesta, knowing they are stuck with the Big East Champ, is hoping West Virginia or Syracuse is the team though. West Virginia at least comes with a traveling horde of fans while Syracuse would be a good story to sell with the revival of the program.

All the teams still in BCS contention by conference after the jump

BCS Standings Analysis + Bowl Projections

As everyone has written already, the best thing that happened for TCU was the Alabama loss to LSU. For Boise St., problems now ensue and everyone else get things reshuffled except front runners Auburn and LSU.

Most Likely to be in National Title Game in order from most likely to least likely

Oregon – Win out and play for the title

Auburn – Same as Oregon

TCU – If either of the top two loses, TCU, with its humiliation of Utah in hand now, can withstand any one loss team

Auburn with a loss – If the loss is to Alabama on the road but the Tigers bounce back and win the SEC Title, I think the computers would prop them up over Boise St., especially if the opponent in the SEC Title game is Florida

Boise St. - While they won't have their customary late season slide in the computers this year because the WAC is stronger than normal, it still won't leap them over teams into title contention barring chaos. Best bet is for Oregon and TCU to both lose a game

Wisconsin – Don't have the long-term pedigree of an Ohio St. or Alabama needed to jump undefeated Boise St. or TCU and remains in front of Ohio St. in the pecking order because of head to head win

Oklahoma St. - In the same position as Wisconsin and have the chance to avenge loss to Nebraska in Big 12 Title game if they get there. Strong in the computers and the polls would come around, but need lots of losses above them

LSU and Stanford – Both are very strong, but in the bad spot of needing two losses by their conference leader. Voters won't put one of these two in the title game without a conference title (remember that Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 getting to play for the title without winning the Big 12 was one of the main complaints about the original BCS Ranking system) and conference titles look nearly unattainable

Nebraska – The Texas loss is going to be an albatross in any scenario in the computers leaving the Cornhuskers on the outside looking in no matter what happens

Anybody else – The scenario is too chaotic to even begin to comprehend

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs TCU

Nobody in the Pac-10 is beating Oregon unless good Cal shows up and the Ducks play a terrible game at the same time this week. For TCU, its even easier getting a San Diego St. team that doesn't have the talent to stay with the Frogs but will help in the computers and New Mexico (who at least managed to win a game). Auburn isn't here because I think they will lose at Alabama.

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford

I don't think Michigan St. will beat Penn St. at this point. Given that, all Wisconsin has to do is win out and the Rose Bowl is theirs. As for Stanford, the Rose Bowl will pick the Cardinal to replace Oregon. The non-BCS provision that has kept Boise St. here all season means nothing if there is a non-BCS team playing for the title leaving the Rose Bowl freed to take Stanford.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU

I admit this might be a stretch. The Orange Bowl seems to go out of its way to screw somebody whenever possible anymore so its possible an 11-1 Ohio St. could land here over LSU. I don't think that will happen but it is a possibility. As for the ACC, after the collective self destruction in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech holding a two game lead with three to play in the Coastal, we can probably safely put the Hokies here.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Boise St.

Auburn wins the SEC title game and heads to the Sugar Bowl (though don't discount a Florida upset that would kill Boise St.'s BCS hopes entirely, particularly with the Kansas St. rule of having to take any team in the top four seemingly not in effect anymore, because Florida would need a marquee opponent like Ohio St. to motivate their fans to travel) and faces undefeated Boise St. The Broncos will be mad about being excluded from the title game and out to prove something against the SEC champ.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

Nebraska will win the Big 12. Pittsburgh is the scraps left from the Big East. No controversy or anything to see here.

Teams still in the running by conference after the jump

BCS Breakdown + Bowl Projections October 25

Top 10 teams in the BCS
1 Auburn
2 Oregon
3 Boise St.
4 TCU
5 Michigan St.
6 Missouri
7 Alabama
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin

What it really means – the real national title picture. Teams higher up are closer to the title game if they win out
1 Auburn – An undefeated SEC Champion isn't going to get left out under any circumstances no matter what
2 Oregon – The Ducks are a strong number one in the polls and have room to improve in the computers which they will if they keep winning
3 Missouri – Missouri has two high profile games remaining, one this week at Nebraska and a possible Big 12 Title game along with a decent Kansas St. team. More than enough to jump Boise St., TCU and Michigan St. as the Big 12 is very strong in the computers
4 TCU – The howling from Big Ten territory if Michigan St. goes undefeated and doesn't pass TCU would be immense, but Baylor's ascension into the top 25 makes that win look much better along with Oregon St. and Utah. Michigan St. missing Ohio St. on the schedule in Big Ten play looks awful right now
5 Michigan St. - Already covered with no Ohio st. on schedule. Computer numbers are good now but could take a hit with weaker Purdue and Minnesota teams left on the schedule along with underachieving Penn St.
6 Boise St. - The voters seem to want the Broncos in the title game somehow if they can manage it. With most of the tougher WAC games coming (Fresno St., Hawaii and Nevada are all competent computer teams on par with the middle tier of most of the major conferences), the Broncos may not drop too much further in the computer component
7 Alabama – SEC fans will howl, but one-loss Tide aren't getting a major quality win in the SEC Title game and that hurts the chances if in fact Alabama runs the table
8 Utah – Utah simply won't jump Alabama even if they beat TCU and Notre Dame
9 Oklahoma – Win out and hope for chaos and an undefeated Missouri in the Big 12 Title game
10 Nebraska – Cornhuskers have the chance against Missouri to get back into the thick of things this week. After that, winning out with a win over Oklahoma is a must.

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs Michigan St.
Ducks seem to be on cruise control heading into the toughest test of the season this Saturday at USC. Michigan St must win at Iowa, certainly possible if Wisconsin managed it, and then its downhill from there. I still don't think TCU is going to run the table impressive though they have been.

Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Wisconsin
Boise will take the non-BCS Rose Bowl slot with a perfect record while Wisconsin is going to run the table with the toughest games behind them on the way to 11-1 and a Rose Bowl berth.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama
I still project Virginia Tech as the ACC Champion. Meanwhile, Alabama will be 10-2 with a win over Auburn allowing them to jump LSU (who will have the head-to-head win and also be 10-2) as the top at-large pick.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Missouri
Auburn wins the SEC despite losing to Alabama (an Alabama loss at LSU in two weeks means an 11-0 Auburn would already have the West clinched going into the Iron Bowl) and faces Missouri who sneaks in over Nebraska despite a head-to-head loss because of a better record (Missouri will be 11-1 with only loss to Nebraska while Nebraska will be 11-2 with loss in Big 12 Title Game) and the nefarious unwritten bowl rule: if the bowl has an option, they prefer not to take a team coming off a lose in its final games because fans down on their team won't travel as well.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Pittsburgh
Oklahoma will win out to take the Big 12 while Pittsburgh seems to be rounding into form to takeover as the best of a sorry lot in the Big East.

Other at-large contenders by league after the jump