Week 13 BCS Breakdown

I have already poured over the standings (along with my team of super inteeligent monkeys and the extra voices in my head) to figure out everything anyone needs to know about the BCS this season. Here it is.

Standings (with projected bowl)

1 LSU (National Championship Game)

2 Alabama (National Championship Game)

3 Arkansas (Capital One Bowl)

4 Oklahoma St. (Cotton Bowl)

5 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

6 Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)

7 Boise St. (Poinsettia Bowl)

8 Houston (Sugar Bowl)

9 Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl)

10 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Teams in National Title Race and what they need to reach the title game

LSU – Win remaining games.

Alabama – Win remaining games, Oklahoma St. loss wouldn't hurt but may not be necessary

Arkansas – Win out, either Alabama or Oklahoma St. (and possibly both) need to lose

Oklahoma St. - Beat Oklahoma, Arkansas must lose to LSU, Alabama might need to lose to Auburn. SEC Championship Game upset would be helpful.

Virginia Tech – Win out, get an Oklahoma St. loss and then hope there is extreme distaste for a rematch and Stanford doesn't win the Pac-12.

Stanford – Win out, probably need the conference title meaning an Oregon loss to Oregon St. and the entire Virginia Tech scenario.

BCS Bowl Projections + explanations

National Title Game – LSU vs Alabama

Nobody really wants a rematch, but there won't be another choice when Oklahoma St. loses to Oklahoma. Even if the pollsters move Stanford or Virginia Tech over Alabama, the margin won't be big and the computers will keep Alabama in the 2 slot.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin

Oregon may have lost to USC, but the likelihood of them losing to Oregon St. or whoever comes out of the Pac-12 South at home is slim to none. As for Wisconsin, they are going to beat Penn St. at home and then get their revenge against Michigan St.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford

Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma St. to win the Big 12 and take an automatic berth to this game. With the first pick after National Title Game participants are replaced (Sugar picks first), the Fiesta will take Stanford with Michigan off the board.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Houston

This bowl is in a bad spot. They will be unable to get an SEC team as a replacement like usual. Given that, they will take an excited Michigan fanbase and Houston because as bad as Houston might be in the eyes of the bowls, the Big East Champion is going to be far worse.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs West Virginia

Given the misery that this game goes through annually (deservingly I might add), this is about as good as could be hoped for with the matchup likely to be ACC-Big East again. At least it is a rivalry that hasn't been played in awhile.

Who gets snubbed in this scenario?

Arkansas at 10-2 is beaten by the 2-team rule

The Sugar Bowl can't get its desired SEC team

Boise St. will be ranked higher than many of the BCS participants

Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. will both finish 10-2 and get left out of BCS games

The Orange Bowl will have the ratings poison of ACC Champ against Big East Champ (again, this bowl will be by far the happiest of the bowls to be rid of AQ's)

The people who have to watch the Big East Champ in a BCS Game (though this happens in any scenario)

BCS Bowl Projections and the race to the title game Week 10

Projections are made with future results in mind. Also note that the teams projected may not be the most deserving teams. That is the way bowl games work.

National Championship – LSU vs Oklahoma

LSU is going to win out. Not much question there. In the other spot, I think everyone else except Boise St. gets beat amongst the undefeated teams. At that point, Oklahoma, as the team doing the beating of Oklahoma St., jumps Boise into the title game.

Rose Bowl – Stanford vs Ohio St.

Ohio St. is going to win out. Do that and all they need is a Penn St. loss to either Nebraska or Wisconsin to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Given the current turmoil off the field at Penn St., I like the Buckeyes chances. As for Stanford, I project a loss, but to Notre Dame, not this week to Oregon.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Wisconsin

Oklahoma St. slides right in replacing Oklahoma as the Big 12 rep. As for Wisconsin, they will be irresistible at 2 losses for any bowl game with the traveling horde that follows them. If available, this bowl will take Oklahoma and Nebraska in less than a second, even if one or both are not entirely deserving.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St.

The game everyone really wants to see, and it happens when the Fiesta passes on Boise St. after having had them twice in the last five years.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Cincinnati

This bowl is still paying for all the favors it took in the pre-BCS era and for the Iowa-USC matchup in 2002. Given that they are stuck with the ACC Champion (though Clemson is, by far, the best non-Florida St. or Miami tv draw in the league) and the last pick, this matchup is destined to suck this season.

National Title Contenders

LSU – Win out, play for National Title

Oklahoma St. - Win Out, play for National Title

Alabama – Get a wholescale collapse, 2007-style while winning out. Either that or get an Arkansas win over LSU and steal the tiebreaker at the end.

Stanford – Win out and get either and Oklahoma St. or LSU loss. Don't be alarmed at number 4 ranking this week. As soon as they beat Oregon, that will be rectified.

Boise St. - Win out and get a lot of help. Among the contenders, Boise needs almost. If LSU remains undefeated, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma obviously trump Boise. Oregon and Alabama could be done in by the voters not wanting a title game rematch.

Oklahoma – Win out and get a Stanford loss. Would beat Oklahoma St. along the way. Might need Oklahoma St. to remain undefeated until Bedlam game as well (likely).

Oregon – Win out, hope for a collapse from everyone else and hope the voters prefer a non-conference rematch instead of a conference rematch. Likely done for in the National Title Race without 2 LSU losses to eliminate them.

Arkansas – Win out and win the tiebreaker for the SEC West. Ideally, this would be with an Auburn win over Alabama to eliminate Alabama entirely as winning the 3-way tiebreaker looks impossibly bleak for Arkansas. Also needs a loss by two of Oklahoma St., Oklahoma and Stanford.

Everybody else is completely cooked in the National Title race.

BCS Insanity - Projections and the Like

Projections – These are made with the attempt to predict future games

National Title Game – LSU vs Clemson – These will be the only two undefeated AQ teams, ergo, this will be the title game matchup.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin – Ducks will find a way to beat Stanford while Wisconsin will beat the winner of the Michigan St./Nebraska game this weekend in the Big Ten Title Game.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford – With the Big Ten and SEC off the board and a Big 12 team already in this game, the Fiesta will take one-loss Stanford and pit Andrew Luck against Oklahma's high powered offense.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St. - This matchup should be obvious, especially cinsdiering nobody wants the Big East Champion

Orange Bowl – Nebraska vs Cincinnati – With the second at-large to replace anchor Clemson, the Orange will go for nostalgia (at least for themselves) and pick Nebraska before getting stuck with Big East Champ Cincinnati.

Teams still in hunt for BCS Championship Game and what they need to get there

LSU – Tigers need to win out. A loss will kill them because it would cause them to lose any tiebreakers in SEC West play, meaning they won't win the conference and with no conference title, there will be no national title shot.

Alabama – Not in as dire a straits as LSU if they lose a game (especially if its the Auburn game). As long as Alabama wins the division and there aren't two undefeated AQ teams, Alabama plays for the title even with a loss as long as they win the SEC.

Oklahoma St. - Cowboys win out and play for the title. A loss anywhere against the remaining schedule likely leaves them toast given the possible losses would either cause a lost tiebreaker in conference play or be a loss to the likes of Baylor. That won't get a non-historic powerhouse to the National Championship.

Boise St. - Need to win out and needs either the SEC champ to be the only AQ undefeated or the SEC champ to have two losses with only one other AQ undefeated. Probably would help to be impressive in victory to keep a possible one-loss Big 12 team out of the top spot.

Clemson – Win out, get a loss by the Alabama/LSU winner or Oklahoma St. Win the coin flip over Stanford or have the Cardinal lose.

Stanford – Same scenario as Clemson.

Kansas St. - Win out and play for the title. Lose and enjoy San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.

Oklahoma – Same scenario as Boise St. Might need a loss from Boise St. as well.

Arkansas – Win out and preferably blow LSU out. LSU also needs to beat Alabama. And there need to be no more than 1 AQ undefeated

South Carolina – Win out and have less than 2 AQ undefeateds (Good luck with that one without Lattimore)

Given those scenarios, what is the probability of the chaos so many root for? 10% - The number actually shrinks because Wisconsin is no longer undefeated and the Badgers were likely to get left out if they finished undefeated and there were two other AQ undefeateds.

After the jump are the scenarios for teams to reach one of the lesser BCS games.

BCS Bowl Projections – End of September

These projections will next show up at the end of October and then weekly in November until the BCS pairings are announced in December.

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs LSU

I have changed from my preseason Virginia Tech projection for various reasons (which can be read below). For Oklahoma, they aren't losing at home leaving Oklahoma St. and Texas as the only legit chances to lose. Texas isn't ready yet in its rebuilding process and Oklahoma St. hasn't stopped an Oklahoma offense since 2002. That won't change this season.

As for LSU, their defense is amazing and I think they will be able to bottle up Alabama considering the Crimson Tide has no downfield passing threat whatsoever.

Others considered: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Georgia Tech

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Oregon

Wisconsin has looked incredible thus far against subpar competition. Considering I believe most of the Big Ten is subpar, that won't change though the Badgers will blow a game somewhere along the line in mind-numbing fashion.

As for Oregon, there is no shame in losing to LSU, especially in the opener and I have seen nothing since that leads me to believe anyone in the Pac-12 is going to stop the Duck offense (that includes Stanford).

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Nebraska

While I believe Oklahoma St. will lose a game before the annual loss to Oklahoma, that will still be good enough to get them to the Big 12 tied-in Fiesta Bowl at 10-2. As for their opponent, the Fiesta won't be able to resist the Nebraska traveling fanbase they that haven't gotten in the BCS era despite its previous membership in the Big 12. If Nebraska isn't here, I expect it to be Michigan, who could go 10-2 in a weak Big Ten.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs West Virginia

The Sugar is taking the SEC West runner up barring something unforeseen (Florida upset of Alabama or LSU). When given a choice between Boise St. and West Virginia, the Bowl will go for West Virginia's traveling horde over Boise going halfway across the country.

Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech vs Boise St.

The Yellow Jackets have returned to their form from two years ago, just in time to make Virginia Tech's schedule significantly more difficult. They will win at home against the Hokies to spoil Virginia Tech's undefeated run (if VT even gets past a much improved Clemson) and take their division. This development will also lead the Orange Bowl to try anything is can to get out from the ACC tie-in. The other bowls won't care and won't allow it. Then, to compound matters for the Orange Bowl, they will be hosting a non-AQ for the first time. At this point, bowl executives will want to jump off a building.

After the jump are others considered for BCS slots.

BCS Rankings Analysis and Bowl Projections

The top ten didn't change at all this week after everyone won. The big stories of the week are:

Boise St. is now in position to re-jump TCU – The Broncos were the big beneficiaries of a lot of TCU related things. First, TCU was underwhelming against a good San Diego St. team (the Aztecs are roughly equal, maybe slightly better than Hawaii who got obliterated on the blue turf). Second, the collective TCU schedule took the day off with Utah losing at Notre Dame, Baylor losing to Texas A&m and SMU still at home seething after losing to UTEP. Oregon St. also lost (to Washington St. of all teams) but since Boise St. played them too it doesn't hurt TCU, at least in comparison to Boise. This weekend was the worst case scenario for TCU.

Oregon and Auburn are still fine if they win out – Nothing changed here. Both of these teams win out and they play for the title. Now they both have a bye week (as does TCU) to rest and get everything rolling again. This comes just in time for Oregon who got beat up in the win over Cal on Saturday while Auburn would probably want to continue playing and just get everything over with considering all of the Cam Newton stuff that is out there.

Iowa's loss helps Michigan St. - The Hawkeyes lost to Northwestern bringing Michigan st. closer to the needed two way tie with Wisconsin to get to the Rose Bowl. The Spartans are well down in the BCS standings and need to tiebreaker to be head-to-head, something they done have the option of with Ohio St.

LSU who can't win their conference and Stanford who probably won't remain a buffer between the non-BCS schools and the first real one-loss threat – If Auburn or Oregon lose, TCU or Boise St. is going to the title game. With all the Cam Newton stuff out there, a one-loss Auburn that loses to Alabama and wins the SEC isn't getting the benefit of the doubt that a one-loss SEC team normally would. Meanwhile, Oregon with a loss won't have the computer numbers to get to the title game unless they remain number one in the polls, something that won't happen if they lose. With LSU and Stanford not winning their conferences, the non-BCS schools are in the clear because seventh-ranked Wisconsin isn't jumping that far up no matter how many times they score 83 points.

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game - Oregon vs Boise St.

Once Auburn loses to Alabama, the road will be clear for a non-BCS team to play for the title. I think the voters will put Boise St. in that position over TCU as much because of the victory in the Fiesta Bowl last season as anything else. Oregon won't lose at Autzen and Oregon St. seems to be melting down so the Ducks probably won't lose.

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford

I now think with Iowa having lost that Wisconsin will win the Big Ten outright. Michigan St. will lose to Penn St. and Ohio St. will lose to Iowa, but even if those things don't happen, the Badgers win all tiebreakers except to head-to-head with Michigan St. as long as they keep winning. With the non-BCS slot taken in the title game, the Rose Bowl picks Stanford to replace its lost Pac-10 champ, even if the Cardinal lose another game to finish 10-2.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU

If the choice comes down to non-BCS or LSU, the Orange will no doubt take the Tigers. That said, LSU should watch out because a Nebraska loss in the Big 12 Title game could send the Cornhuskers here instead. The Orange has a long and productive relationship with Nebraska and will exploit that in a second if given the opportunity.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Ohio St.

The Sugar picking first is tired of no name teams. They have has Cincinnati, Utah and Hawaii in the last three seasons. No amount of money or pressure is going to get them to pass on whoever is second in the Big 10, even if that team has two losses. I still project Auburn to lose to Alabama and then beat South Carolina putting the Tigers in New Orleans.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

Nebraska will win the Big 12 and Pittsburgh is my best guess out of the Big East. At this point, I would think the Fiesta, knowing they are stuck with the Big East Champ, is hoping West Virginia or Syracuse is the team though. West Virginia at least comes with a traveling horde of fans while Syracuse would be a good story to sell with the revival of the program.

All the teams still in BCS contention by conference after the jump

BCS Standings Analysis + Bowl Projections

As everyone has written already, the best thing that happened for TCU was the Alabama loss to LSU. For Boise St., problems now ensue and everyone else get things reshuffled except front runners Auburn and LSU.

Most Likely to be in National Title Game in order from most likely to least likely

Oregon – Win out and play for the title

Auburn – Same as Oregon

TCU – If either of the top two loses, TCU, with its humiliation of Utah in hand now, can withstand any one loss team

Auburn with a loss – If the loss is to Alabama on the road but the Tigers bounce back and win the SEC Title, I think the computers would prop them up over Boise St., especially if the opponent in the SEC Title game is Florida

Boise St. - While they won't have their customary late season slide in the computers this year because the WAC is stronger than normal, it still won't leap them over teams into title contention barring chaos. Best bet is for Oregon and TCU to both lose a game

Wisconsin – Don't have the long-term pedigree of an Ohio St. or Alabama needed to jump undefeated Boise St. or TCU and remains in front of Ohio St. in the pecking order because of head to head win

Oklahoma St. - In the same position as Wisconsin and have the chance to avenge loss to Nebraska in Big 12 Title game if they get there. Strong in the computers and the polls would come around, but need lots of losses above them

LSU and Stanford – Both are very strong, but in the bad spot of needing two losses by their conference leader. Voters won't put one of these two in the title game without a conference title (remember that Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 getting to play for the title without winning the Big 12 was one of the main complaints about the original BCS Ranking system) and conference titles look nearly unattainable

Nebraska – The Texas loss is going to be an albatross in any scenario in the computers leaving the Cornhuskers on the outside looking in no matter what happens

Anybody else – The scenario is too chaotic to even begin to comprehend

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs TCU

Nobody in the Pac-10 is beating Oregon unless good Cal shows up and the Ducks play a terrible game at the same time this week. For TCU, its even easier getting a San Diego St. team that doesn't have the talent to stay with the Frogs but will help in the computers and New Mexico (who at least managed to win a game). Auburn isn't here because I think they will lose at Alabama.

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford

I don't think Michigan St. will beat Penn St. at this point. Given that, all Wisconsin has to do is win out and the Rose Bowl is theirs. As for Stanford, the Rose Bowl will pick the Cardinal to replace Oregon. The non-BCS provision that has kept Boise St. here all season means nothing if there is a non-BCS team playing for the title leaving the Rose Bowl freed to take Stanford.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU

I admit this might be a stretch. The Orange Bowl seems to go out of its way to screw somebody whenever possible anymore so its possible an 11-1 Ohio St. could land here over LSU. I don't think that will happen but it is a possibility. As for the ACC, after the collective self destruction in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech holding a two game lead with three to play in the Coastal, we can probably safely put the Hokies here.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Boise St.

Auburn wins the SEC title game and heads to the Sugar Bowl (though don't discount a Florida upset that would kill Boise St.'s BCS hopes entirely, particularly with the Kansas St. rule of having to take any team in the top four seemingly not in effect anymore, because Florida would need a marquee opponent like Ohio St. to motivate their fans to travel) and faces undefeated Boise St. The Broncos will be mad about being excluded from the title game and out to prove something against the SEC champ.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

Nebraska will win the Big 12. Pittsburgh is the scraps left from the Big East. No controversy or anything to see here.

Teams still in the running by conference after the jump

BCS Breakdown + Bowl Projections October 25

Top 10 teams in the BCS
1 Auburn
2 Oregon
3 Boise St.
4 TCU
5 Michigan St.
6 Missouri
7 Alabama
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin

What it really means – the real national title picture. Teams higher up are closer to the title game if they win out
1 Auburn – An undefeated SEC Champion isn't going to get left out under any circumstances no matter what
2 Oregon – The Ducks are a strong number one in the polls and have room to improve in the computers which they will if they keep winning
3 Missouri – Missouri has two high profile games remaining, one this week at Nebraska and a possible Big 12 Title game along with a decent Kansas St. team. More than enough to jump Boise St., TCU and Michigan St. as the Big 12 is very strong in the computers
4 TCU – The howling from Big Ten territory if Michigan St. goes undefeated and doesn't pass TCU would be immense, but Baylor's ascension into the top 25 makes that win look much better along with Oregon St. and Utah. Michigan St. missing Ohio St. on the schedule in Big Ten play looks awful right now
5 Michigan St. - Already covered with no Ohio st. on schedule. Computer numbers are good now but could take a hit with weaker Purdue and Minnesota teams left on the schedule along with underachieving Penn St.
6 Boise St. - The voters seem to want the Broncos in the title game somehow if they can manage it. With most of the tougher WAC games coming (Fresno St., Hawaii and Nevada are all competent computer teams on par with the middle tier of most of the major conferences), the Broncos may not drop too much further in the computer component
7 Alabama – SEC fans will howl, but one-loss Tide aren't getting a major quality win in the SEC Title game and that hurts the chances if in fact Alabama runs the table
8 Utah – Utah simply won't jump Alabama even if they beat TCU and Notre Dame
9 Oklahoma – Win out and hope for chaos and an undefeated Missouri in the Big 12 Title game
10 Nebraska – Cornhuskers have the chance against Missouri to get back into the thick of things this week. After that, winning out with a win over Oklahoma is a must.

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs Michigan St.
Ducks seem to be on cruise control heading into the toughest test of the season this Saturday at USC. Michigan St must win at Iowa, certainly possible if Wisconsin managed it, and then its downhill from there. I still don't think TCU is going to run the table impressive though they have been.

Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Wisconsin
Boise will take the non-BCS Rose Bowl slot with a perfect record while Wisconsin is going to run the table with the toughest games behind them on the way to 11-1 and a Rose Bowl berth.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama
I still project Virginia Tech as the ACC Champion. Meanwhile, Alabama will be 10-2 with a win over Auburn allowing them to jump LSU (who will have the head-to-head win and also be 10-2) as the top at-large pick.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Missouri
Auburn wins the SEC despite losing to Alabama (an Alabama loss at LSU in two weeks means an 11-0 Auburn would already have the West clinched going into the Iron Bowl) and faces Missouri who sneaks in over Nebraska despite a head-to-head loss because of a better record (Missouri will be 11-1 with only loss to Nebraska while Nebraska will be 11-2 with loss in Big 12 Title Game) and the nefarious unwritten bowl rule: if the bowl has an option, they prefer not to take a team coming off a lose in its final games because fans down on their team won't travel as well.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Pittsburgh
Oklahoma will win out to take the Big 12 while Pittsburgh seems to be rounding into form to takeover as the best of a sorry lot in the Big East.

Other at-large contenders by league after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections - Post BCS Standings

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon

With the BCS Rankings now out for the first time this season, everyone else can now see what I have been saying off and on for the last few weeks: Oregon and Oklahoma will play for the title if they win out. Obviously if one of the remaining two SEC teams wins out, they will jump someone to get into the title game, but I don't think that will happen.

Rose Bowl – Iowa vs Boise St.

Iowa has all of its big games ahead of itself and they are all at home. They will win them all on the way to an 11-1 season. Awaiting them will be Boise St. with a perfect record and number 3 ranking.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama

Virginia Tech is here by virtue of being the projected ACC Champ. Alabama will lose on the road to LSU for a second loss but beat Auburn to reach 10-2 and look good to any bowl game.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Michigan St.

Auburn will win the SEC despite a loss to Alabama at the end of the regular season and Michigan St. will go 11-1. The Spartans will easily end up in one of the BCS games as they have not been to a major bowl since the 1987 Rose Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl – Texas vs West Virginia

Texas has a good chance to win out and a 10-2 Longhorn teams, while not really a fit for most of the games, the Fiesta because of the relationship with the Big 12, would take them (or one of the other Big 12 teams).

Other At-Large contenders by league after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections Week 7

National Title Game – Oregon vs Oklahoma
I really should stop moving preseason prediction Oklahoma out of this spot. Something makes me look foolish every time I do it. That said, there shouldn’t be any movement this week. Oregon has a bye week and Oklahoma plays overmatched Iowa St.

Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Iowa
I did some additional thinking and Iowa plays both Michigan St. and Ohio St. at home. This means they have a good chance to run the table putting them in the Rose Bowl with a perfect conference record. Boise St. is still here in the non-BCS league champ spot.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Ohio St.
With Ohio St. at 11-1 and in the at-large pool after the Fiesta takes Nebraska to replace Oklahoma, the Sugar does the sensible thing and puts together a blockbuster Alabama-Ohio St. game.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU
I still have Virginia Tech in the ACC though Florida St. makes a compelling case. On the other side, I think LSU will beat Auburn next week and end up 11-1 with a loss to Alabama. With crazy Les Miles from the SEC, that equals rare ratings gold for the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs West Virginia
Nebraska will be the pick to replace Oklahoma and West Virginia as the Big East Champ is the last team left over without question.

Other legit BCS possibilities by conference after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections – Finally Some Major Changes

BCS Title Game – Alabama vs Oregon

Yes, I have finally come around on Alabama. I believed they were the best team all along (see the season long number one rankings from me) but thought they weren't invincible. Nothing has changed except that Florida is even worse than I thought and if Alabama and Florida played nine more times to make it ten, Alabama would win them all. On the other side, Oregon cleared one of its two toughest test last week against Stanford and will be favored in every game the rest of the year. Look out for the day after Thanksgiving where Alabama hosts Auburn and Oregon hosts Arizona in games that both could be battles of unbeatens (I should also mention Boise St.-Nevada is on that day as well).

Rose – Ohio St. vs Boise St.

Ohio St. won't run the table, but they will win the Big Ten again. Boise St. remains perfect and heads to the Rose Bowl. Ho hum, nothing changes here.

Sugar – Arkansas vs Nebraska

With Florida out of the mix, Arkansas moves into the vacated Alabama spot. Why Arkansas? Bowls don't like teams coming off losses. Arkansas will finish 10-2 with a win at the end over LSU and jump Auburn at either 11-1 or 10-2 because the Tigers will be coming off a loss to Alabama. The only exception to this is cold weather Midwestern teams who travel in huge numbers to get away from the cold, hence the presence of Nebraska here after losing the Big 12 Title Game to Oklahoma.

Orange – Virginia Tech vs Michigan St.

Virginia Tech is my new projected ACC Champ. I don't believe Miami quarterback Jacory Harris can stay interception free in enough big games to get Miami to the ACC Championship game and that division is the stronger division though NC State is certainly a threat despite losing to Virginia Tech last week. Michigan St. doesn't play Ohio St. and hasn't been in a BCS game since the BCS was started. The schedule works out well and while there is no way this team goes undefeated, 11-1 makes them an attractive option for the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta – Oklahoma vs West Virginia

Oklahoma wins the Big 12 and goes here as its anchor bowl. West Virginia will win the Big East and get shipped here as the last pick. Nobody wants the Big East Champ, even if it is the rabid traveling Mountaineer fans because the TV ratings will be way down. Maybe Bob Stoops can rectify his ugly loss to these guys from a few years ago.

Other serious contenders for BCS games after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections – Week 5

I know its a little late but the Oklahoma St.-Texas A&M game last night didn't change anything here.

BCS Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon

I still have both of these teams as the only major conference undefeateds as I believe Alabama is due for a big Championship Saturday upset (its been awhile since we had one of those) and Ohio St. will lose at Wisconsin. Oregon will run the table in the Pac-10 with its toughest remaining games at home while Oklahoma will take advantage of a weak Big 12 to run the table even though they are most certainly not one of the best two teams and won't be even if they do win out.

Rose Bowl – Ohio St. vs Boise St.

The Buckeyes are only going to lose once while Boise St. ends up here because of the Rose Bowl being forced to take the best non-BCS team even if the second place Pac-10 team is in the top 10.

Sugar Bowl – Florida vs Nebraska

Florida lands here as the SEC Champion and the Sugar Bowl picking its team before the Orange takes Nebraska and its traveling horde of fans.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Wisconsin

I project Clemson to this game as the ACC Champ but that doesn't really matter. It could be Miami, Virginia Tech or NC State just as easily. On the other side, the second place team in the Pac-10 will be more deserving that Wisconsin, but the Badgers and their traveling fans will get the nod over a Arizona or Stanford.

Fiesta Bowl – Alabama vs West Virginia

After losing Oklahoma, the Fiesta has the first pick of teams. Normally this would go to an eligible Big 12 team, but that team is Nebraska and with them on the way out of the league and Alabama on the board after losing the SEC Title Game, the Fiesta takes the Crimson Tide. On the downside, the Fiesta also has the last pick meaning they get leftover West Virginia, the projected Big East champ.

Others considered for BCS games, by league after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections - Week 4

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon

These two teams seem to be the most likely of the big four league (SEC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-10) teams that win any tiebreakers over undefeated Boise St. to be able to go undefeated with the remaining schedules each has. Both also have at least one big non-conference win to hang their hat on though Oregon's record could be quite dubious in that regard if Tennessee doesn't win anything in SEC play (possible this year).

Rose – Ohio St. vs Boise St.

Ohio St. isn't going to get through the Big Ten undefeated so they return to Pasadena where Boise St. will await after taking advantage of the non-BCS school to the Rose Bowl clause this season.

Fiesta – Arizona vs West Virginia

The Fiesta is going to opt for hometown Arizona as much as a nod to the Pac-10 that has been shafted year after year as anything else and get stuck with Big East champ West Virginia as the last pick. Without question, the Big East champ is going here unless West Virginia wins that league with a 12-0 record.

Sugar – Florida vs Nebraska

I still think Florida is headed to the SEC Title Game (as much because I don't believe in South Carolina or Kentucky as contenders) and I believe we are due for a big Championship Saturday upset to keep Alabama out of the title game. I also think Florida is going to lose twice on the way keeping them out of the National Title Game. Nebraska is going to go 10-2 at an absolute minimum through the regular season but likely 11-1. With a loss in the Big 12 title game to Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers would be a valuable team at 11-2, much more future Big Ten brethren Iowa and Wisconsin will be at 10-2 or 9-3.

Orange – Clemson vs Alabama

Clemson impressed me in the loss at Auburn enough to lock them in as the ACC's representative for now while Alabama goes here because the Sugar won't want Florida/Alabama 3.

Others Considered after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections

Maybe I should stick with original picks instead of changing at the first sign of trouble. Notice that Oklahoma is returning to its projected national title game perch.

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon

Oklahoma gets promoted back to the championship game after the win over Florida St. to play Oregon., who remains in this spot after destroying Tennessee in the second half.

Rose – Ohio St. vs Boise St.

Boise St. gets slotted in here with the Rose Bowl being forced to take a non-BCS team if they lose a team to the title game. I don't think Ohio St. is going to be undefeated, but they will win the Big Ten again.

Fiesta – Alabama vs Arizona

Normally the Fiesta would take a Big 12 team with its pick to replace Oklahoma, but with departing conference member Nebraska being projected here as the only viable pick and a lock for one of the other games, the Fiesta jumps at an SEC Title Game losing Alabama. As for West Virginia, they are the best of a bad lot in the Big East. Considering my hatred of the Orange Bowl for staging Rose Bowl East after the 2002 season and shipping Oklahoma to the Rose, it would be fitting if the Big East champ got shipped there to play the ACC champ. Anything to make that game suck.

Sugar – Florida vs Wisconsin

Florida gets here by virtue of an SEC title game upset of Alabama (BTW I think South Carolina, while good, picked the wrong year to draw the Auburn-Alabama-Arkansas trio from the west) while Wisconsin is going to be the best of the big schools in the Big Ten, one of which is always getting picked. Don't discount a 10-2 Michigan showing up here if they can manage to get that many wins.

Orange – Virginia Tech vs Nebraska

This Virginia Tech thing may change as soon as next week, but when everybody of note in the league loses, its tough to make a change. As for Nebraska, they are highly desirable for the bowls and will be available because of the Cornhuskers impending move to the Big Ten.

Others considered for BCS slots after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections – Week 2

National Title Game – Boise St. vs Oregon

Rose – Ohio St. vs Arizona

Fiesta – Oklahoma vs West Virginia

Sugar – Florida vs Miami

Orange – Virginia Tech vs Alabama

Note the crazy amount of changes from last week. Boise St. looked good enough on defense that I now project them undefeated. I do the same now for Oregon after seeing the USC secondary get torched and Oregon St., Washington, and UCLA look worse than expected. Seeing as how it was the accumulation of games against quality opponents and not lack of talent or ability that had me project a couple of Oregon losses, I will go out on the limb this week.

As for Oklahoma, fix the secondary and then we can talk about putting you back in the national title game, but do it quick because I loss to Florida St. is the end of all title hopes. Non-conference losses to ACC teams mean the end of the line as for as the national title race goes.

In Florida's case, it was never a confidant pick and while I still project them to the same 11-2 with an SEC title season I thought before, I no longer believe that will be good enough to get the Gators to the title game.

Also, note Arizona in the Rose Bowl. I expect them to be a 10-2 team and with Boise St. in the title game therefore invalidating the Rose Bowl must take the automatic non-BCS team, the game goes with the Pac-10 runner up to replace Oregon. That leaves 11-1 co-Mountain West champ TCU on the outside looking in with no automatic berth and a ranking around 8.

College Football Preview - BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Florida

Rose – Ohio St. vs Oregon

Fiesta – Nebraska vs Boise St.

Sugar – Alabama vs Miami

Orange – Virginia Tech vs Cincinnati

If those matchups look terrible, its because they are and it is all selection order. If TCU or Utah are the non-BCS team instead of Boise St., things looks much better. Here is the example.

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Florida

Rose – Ohio St. vs Oregon

Fiesta – Nebraska vs Cincinnati

Sugar – Alabama vs Miami

Orange – Virginia Tech vs TCU/Utah

Obviously to get to this point, on either of these I am making some assumptions. If you read my Mountain West preview, you know I predicted two loss seasons for both TCU and Utah. I also believe Boise St. is going to lose to either Virginia Tech or Oregon St. but still sneak into the top 12 to gain automatic BCS qualification.

As for the rest, I don't believe any of the Big Ten teams get through with less than two losses on the season (yes, that means I am picking Miami over Ohio St. in week 2) nor do I believe that will happen in the Pac-10. The ACC is too balanced for a team to get through with less than two losses so Florida is going to the title game by default with two losses of their own. SEC tie-breaker is in effect (the SEC tie-breaker states that, at this point because of their success in the National Title Game, the SEC wins all ties).