Jan 8, 2012

Learning from the past – what to take from the first LSU-Alabama matchup

There are a lot of things to be learned from the first game between LSU and Alabama. Only some of them are relevant to this game. Here are a few of them.

Alabama must figure out a way to throw deep on LSU – In the first game, Alabama had some success in the first half on intermediate passing routes. It found nothing deep (as I suspected might be the case in the pregame analysis). Somehow, someway, Alabama must find a deep pass. And I mean a legit deep ball. Getting Trent Richardson 50 yards on a screen is not a deep ball. Throwing down the field for a long completion, preferably a touchdown is what is needed. If Alabama can do it, even once, it will open the field up. In the last game, only Richardson's greatness kept Alabama from being totally stagnant after the first two drives. The lack of respect for Alabama's receivers by the LSU safeties and coaching staff completely negated everything else and would have negated Richardson too if he wasn't so good. With a deep completion, even one, the rest of the field reopens, including the midrange passes that Alabama used to great effect (seven completions over 15 yards) for the first quarter and a half of the first game.

Jordan Jefferson's legs are the key to the LSU offense – Last time, Jarrett Lee was still the starter for LSU when the game started. By the end of the game, Jefferson was the unquestioned starter. Without Jefferson, LSU wouldn't have got the second field goal that sent the game to overtime. His legs were necessary. Without those legs that make him mobile, Jefferson is Lee with a lower completion percentage and a few less interceptions. Now, he should be ready to play better in round two. At the very least, he should do well with knocking the rust off since he did it in the middle of the first game.

Alabama's defense will not be beaten by traditional means – When Lee was in the game in the first game, Alabama ate the LSU offense alive. I already mentioned Jefferson's legs. In addition, LSU should get the gimmick plays out. The TE Around play that LSU used on 4th and 1 to seal the win in the 2010 game was a great example of the type of unconventional play calling that will be needed to move the ball on Alabama. Without some plays like that one built for deception at a key time, LSU won't move the ball again and there will be another stalemate.

The Alabama offense will continue to stall just outside the redzone – All game long in the first game, Alabama stalled just before the red zone, causing long field goal attempts. I don't see any reason why that will change in round 2 (making hitting a deep ball for a TD all the more important). The main reason why is the lack of a go to receiver. LSU's corners are so good, the Alabama receivers got erased in the first game. Nowhere does a lack of receivers become more evident than the area between midfield and the redzone. That area, more than any other, is where receivers make the offense go. This is because the defense generally becomes more aggressive in its blitz packages in this area and good receivers allow check downs to be made gaining more yardage. With no receivers open, the extra pressure becomes sacks, like what happened to Alabama in overtime. In what we've seen since then, the Alabama receivers just aren't up to the challenge. That means the field goal unit must be ready this time after its failures in the first game.

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