BCS Championship Game Quick Thoughts

The Alabama defense is one of the greatest of all-time – There have been very few defenses capable of taking apart teams like Alabama has done this season. In recent history, I can think of only four others: 1992 Alabama, 1995 Nebraska, 1999 Florida St. and 2001 Miami. Even being mentioned with those teams is an accomplishment, but I think Alabama this season is better on defense than those teams. Just look at the LSU offense. As it turns out, the LSU offense maxed out in the first game with its 9 points. It didn't play well here and we all saw the results. Sadly.

Despite the loss, the LSU defense was its usual self – The LSU defense is the second best in the country. It stood on its head to keep Alabama out of the endzone for most of the game before finally running out of gas. Kudos to the effort put forth by LSU, especially the front seven that bottled up Trent Richardson entirely before the late touchdown run

On some level, the Maze punt return was the end of the game – Yes, Marquis Maze was injured on the punt return and yes I have been extra critical of him this season. Still, his punt return really shook LSU's confidence. All season, nobody had even bothered to return a punt against LSU. When Maze took off on his return, it was like the energy and will was sucked out of the LSU sideline. The one certain advantage was no longer an advantage.

LSU's offensive gameplan was pathetic

Thank to @Year2 of TeamSpeedKills for the image

Just know the graphic isn't really all that far off from the truth.

Even with the bad gameplan, LSU's limitations offensively were on display – All season, nobody really thought much of LSU being a below average team offensively, as least as far as yards go. Mostly because it always had great field position and scored a ton of points. In this game, the field position was bad and there were no turnovers. Combined with a great defense, this was the result, as it might always have been destined to be. The last time this happened, the average Mississippi St. defense held LSU to 19 points, so we should have seen this as a possibility.

Jordan Jefferson should have been pulled – Jefferson was miserable in this game. No other way to describe it. He was inaccurate, made dumb decisions and was slow both in movement and in his reads in the option games. Quite simple, he was atrocious (even without the awful interception). Jarrett Lee may not have been better, but it wouldn't have hurt to try with the National Title on the line and the team in need of a spark down 15 in the 4^th quarter.

The Alabama offense found a savior at wide receiver with Norwood – Kevin Norwood was pedestrian for all of his two seasons so far at Alabama. All season long, I decried the lack of a deep threat or big play receiver as the main Alabama weakness. With Marquis Maze out injured, Norwood suddenly became that guy, catching four passes for 78 yards after catching only seven passes all season. With Norwood a threat, the Alabama passing game had one of its best games of the season against the best secondary in the country.

Alabama is lucky this didn't become a kicking contest again – The Alabama kicking game was all over the place again. 5-7 and a missed extra point shows this is still a problem. At one point I said on twitter not to kick the field goal. The only way to lose was to get one blacked and returned for a touchdown.

Jordan Jefferson, you have earned the top lowlight of the season – For those who missed the interception, here it is, in all its lowlighty glory.

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Week 13 BCS Breakdown

I have already poured over the standings (along with my team of super inteeligent monkeys and the extra voices in my head) to figure out everything anyone needs to know about the BCS this season. Here it is.

Standings (with projected bowl)

1 LSU (National Championship Game)

2 Alabama (National Championship Game)

3 Arkansas (Capital One Bowl)

4 Oklahoma St. (Cotton Bowl)

5 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

6 Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)

7 Boise St. (Poinsettia Bowl)

8 Houston (Sugar Bowl)

9 Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl)

10 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Teams in National Title Race and what they need to reach the title game

LSU – Win remaining games.

Alabama – Win remaining games, Oklahoma St. loss wouldn't hurt but may not be necessary

Arkansas – Win out, either Alabama or Oklahoma St. (and possibly both) need to lose

Oklahoma St. - Beat Oklahoma, Arkansas must lose to LSU, Alabama might need to lose to Auburn. SEC Championship Game upset would be helpful.

Virginia Tech – Win out, get an Oklahoma St. loss and then hope there is extreme distaste for a rematch and Stanford doesn't win the Pac-12.

Stanford – Win out, probably need the conference title meaning an Oregon loss to Oregon St. and the entire Virginia Tech scenario.

BCS Bowl Projections + explanations

National Title Game – LSU vs Alabama

Nobody really wants a rematch, but there won't be another choice when Oklahoma St. loses to Oklahoma. Even if the pollsters move Stanford or Virginia Tech over Alabama, the margin won't be big and the computers will keep Alabama in the 2 slot.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin

Oregon may have lost to USC, but the likelihood of them losing to Oregon St. or whoever comes out of the Pac-12 South at home is slim to none. As for Wisconsin, they are going to beat Penn St. at home and then get their revenge against Michigan St.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford

Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma St. to win the Big 12 and take an automatic berth to this game. With the first pick after National Title Game participants are replaced (Sugar picks first), the Fiesta will take Stanford with Michigan off the board.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Houston

This bowl is in a bad spot. They will be unable to get an SEC team as a replacement like usual. Given that, they will take an excited Michigan fanbase and Houston because as bad as Houston might be in the eyes of the bowls, the Big East Champion is going to be far worse.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs West Virginia

Given the misery that this game goes through annually (deservingly I might add), this is about as good as could be hoped for with the matchup likely to be ACC-Big East again. At least it is a rivalry that hasn't been played in awhile.

Who gets snubbed in this scenario?

Arkansas at 10-2 is beaten by the 2-team rule

The Sugar Bowl can't get its desired SEC team

Boise St. will be ranked higher than many of the BCS participants

Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. will both finish 10-2 and get left out of BCS games

The Orange Bowl will have the ratings poison of ACC Champ against Big East Champ (again, this bowl will be by far the happiest of the bowls to be rid of AQ's)

The people who have to watch the Big East Champ in a BCS Game (though this happens in any scenario)

BCS Bowl Projections and the race to the title game Week 10

Projections are made with future results in mind. Also note that the teams projected may not be the most deserving teams. That is the way bowl games work.

National Championship – LSU vs Oklahoma

LSU is going to win out. Not much question there. In the other spot, I think everyone else except Boise St. gets beat amongst the undefeated teams. At that point, Oklahoma, as the team doing the beating of Oklahoma St., jumps Boise into the title game.

Rose Bowl – Stanford vs Ohio St.

Ohio St. is going to win out. Do that and all they need is a Penn St. loss to either Nebraska or Wisconsin to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Given the current turmoil off the field at Penn St., I like the Buckeyes chances. As for Stanford, I project a loss, but to Notre Dame, not this week to Oregon.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Wisconsin

Oklahoma St. slides right in replacing Oklahoma as the Big 12 rep. As for Wisconsin, they will be irresistible at 2 losses for any bowl game with the traveling horde that follows them. If available, this bowl will take Oklahoma and Nebraska in less than a second, even if one or both are not entirely deserving.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St.

The game everyone really wants to see, and it happens when the Fiesta passes on Boise St. after having had them twice in the last five years.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Cincinnati

This bowl is still paying for all the favors it took in the pre-BCS era and for the Iowa-USC matchup in 2002. Given that they are stuck with the ACC Champion (though Clemson is, by far, the best non-Florida St. or Miami tv draw in the league) and the last pick, this matchup is destined to suck this season.

National Title Contenders

LSU – Win out, play for National Title

Oklahoma St. - Win Out, play for National Title

Alabama – Get a wholescale collapse, 2007-style while winning out. Either that or get an Arkansas win over LSU and steal the tiebreaker at the end.

Stanford – Win out and get either and Oklahoma St. or LSU loss. Don't be alarmed at number 4 ranking this week. As soon as they beat Oregon, that will be rectified.

Boise St. - Win out and get a lot of help. Among the contenders, Boise needs almost. If LSU remains undefeated, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma obviously trump Boise. Oregon and Alabama could be done in by the voters not wanting a title game rematch.

Oklahoma – Win out and get a Stanford loss. Would beat Oklahoma St. along the way. Might need Oklahoma St. to remain undefeated until Bedlam game as well (likely).

Oregon – Win out, hope for a collapse from everyone else and hope the voters prefer a non-conference rematch instead of a conference rematch. Likely done for in the National Title Race without 2 LSU losses to eliminate them.

Arkansas – Win out and win the tiebreaker for the SEC West. Ideally, this would be with an Auburn win over Alabama to eliminate Alabama entirely as winning the 3-way tiebreaker looks impossibly bleak for Arkansas. Also needs a loss by two of Oklahoma St., Oklahoma and Stanford.

Everybody else is completely cooked in the National Title race.