Jan 1, 2011

BCS Preview and Picks


Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs TCU
Offense: The Wisconsin offense has been a juggernaut since getting things rolling against Ohio St. Since then, nobody has come close to stopping the Badgers. The one question mark is what happens if TCU is able to stop the Wisconsin running game. The defenses in the Big Ten other than Ohio St. and Iowa leave much to be desired and Wisconsin played all the bottom dwellers, with devastating results. The TCU offense has been just as unstoppable, but against the best defense it played against, the TCU offense was held to a season low 27 points by Oregon St. Even though the Horned Frogs can strike quicker and have a better quarterback with Andy Dalton over Scott Tolzien, the Badgers are just better on offense. Edge: Wisconsin
Defense: There is no contest here. TCU has one of the best units if not the best defense in all of college football while Wisconsin has struggled at times, most notably in the loss to Michigan St. and the one-point win over Iowa where opponents scored 30 or more in each game. I still have major questions about the Wisconsin pass defense. Edge: TCU
Coaching: Gary Patterson has been building to a moment like this for a long time, but he and his team have had a tendency to fail in close big games where they are the better team (see last season's Fiesta Bowl against Boise St. and the loss at Utah two seasons ago). That said, he is better than Bret Bielema who finally appeared to get everything straightened out this season on the coaching end after three years of underachievement. Edge: Patterson and TCU
The Pick: TCU will impose its will on this game, but they won't be able to put the Badgers away. They will pay for that late as Wisconsin scores a late touchdown and holds on in the end.
Wisconsin 27, TCU 24

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Connecticut
Offense: Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Broyles are three of the four best offensive players in this game. The other is Jordan Todman of UConn. Considering Zach Frazier and the UConn passing game sometimes take drives, quarters or even full games off, Oklahoma will have the edge here, big. Remember that UConn somehow got to held to 10 points by Michigan's awful defense. Edge: Big to Oklahoma
Defense: Thee UConn defense has actually been quite good, but there are questions as to how much of that was real quality and how much a historically bad offensive conferences where nobody was well-coached or talented enough to actually field a capable offense. For Oklahoma, it has been a roller coaster ride, especially outside of Norman. The Sooners secondary can be had for big plays and the running game is good but not great. Edge: Connecticut
Coaching: Randy Edsall has no track record at this level. Bob Stoops continually gets his teams to this level and even won a few of these games some time ago. Stoops was a hot name for the Florida job. Edsall was no more than a 5th rate backup plan. Edge: Stoops and Oklahoma
The Pick: UConn will get its points against the suspect Oklahoma secondary, but that won't be enough. The Huskies are about to get incinerated by a quarterback and team looking to start a national title run next season. Oklahoma 49, Connecticut 27

Orange Bowl – Stanford vs Virginia Tech
Offense: Both teams have different but great quarterbacks. Andrew Luck will be the top pick in the draft whenever he enters it while Tyrod Taylor is a big winner who has developed nicely over the course of his career. The difference is in the running game. Stanford wins with the line while Virginia Tech wins with its running backs. The Line is always a better option. Edge: Stanford but not by much
Defense: Stanford lacks depth, but its front line players are as good as anyones and only Oregon and USC (before mailing in the end of the season) did any real damage to the Cardinal (no shame there). Virginia Tech got housed by the Boise St. offense in the opener and continued to have problems early. It looked like the problems were fixed, but Florida St. backup quarterback E.J. Manuel led the Seminoles to 33 points. The Hokie defense isn't at its normal level. Edge: Stanford, slightly.
Coaching: Jim Harbaugh has resurrected Stanford and has been fearless in scheduling, recruiting and play calling. Frank Beamer is one of the best in the business. Should be a good matchup, but I go with the experience. Edge: Beamer and Virginia Tech
The Pick: Both teams are hot, but Stanford has shown warning signs of a loss, most notably the close call in November against Arizona St. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is playing as well as anyone in the country and right now, I would take the Hokies over anyone not playing in the Rose Bowl or the National Title Game. Virginia Tech 34, Stanford 28

Sugar Bowl – Ohio St. vs Arkansas
Offense: Ohio St. is good on offense, but they aren't at this level. Ryan Mallett and Knile Davis are better than anyone on the Ohio St. offensive roster and they have a coach who will let them use all that talent. Edge: Arkansas, big
Defense: Now it flips the other way. Arkansas has nobody at the level of Cameron Heyward and the Ohio St. defense. The Buckeyes are significantly better here.
Coaching: Jim Tressell has had his fair share of bad luck and bad draws in the BCS of late, but he has a national title and two other title game appearances on his resume. Petrino, while good, doesn't have the body of work to match that despite being a better offensive coach.
The Pick: Ohio St. is dealing with off the field distractions. Combine that with Arkansas just being a generally bad matchup for the Buckeyes. Arkansas cruises. Arkansas 31, Ohio St. 20

National Title Game Coming the morning of January 10

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