Week 13 BCS Breakdown

I have already poured over the standings (along with my team of super inteeligent monkeys and the extra voices in my head) to figure out everything anyone needs to know about the BCS this season. Here it is.

Standings (with projected bowl)

1 LSU (National Championship Game)

2 Alabama (National Championship Game)

3 Arkansas (Capital One Bowl)

4 Oklahoma St. (Cotton Bowl)

5 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

6 Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)

7 Boise St. (Poinsettia Bowl)

8 Houston (Sugar Bowl)

9 Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl)

10 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Teams in National Title Race and what they need to reach the title game

LSU – Win remaining games.

Alabama – Win remaining games, Oklahoma St. loss wouldn't hurt but may not be necessary

Arkansas – Win out, either Alabama or Oklahoma St. (and possibly both) need to lose

Oklahoma St. - Beat Oklahoma, Arkansas must lose to LSU, Alabama might need to lose to Auburn. SEC Championship Game upset would be helpful.

Virginia Tech – Win out, get an Oklahoma St. loss and then hope there is extreme distaste for a rematch and Stanford doesn't win the Pac-12.

Stanford – Win out, probably need the conference title meaning an Oregon loss to Oregon St. and the entire Virginia Tech scenario.

BCS Bowl Projections + explanations

National Title Game – LSU vs Alabama

Nobody really wants a rematch, but there won't be another choice when Oklahoma St. loses to Oklahoma. Even if the pollsters move Stanford or Virginia Tech over Alabama, the margin won't be big and the computers will keep Alabama in the 2 slot.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin

Oregon may have lost to USC, but the likelihood of them losing to Oregon St. or whoever comes out of the Pac-12 South at home is slim to none. As for Wisconsin, they are going to beat Penn St. at home and then get their revenge against Michigan St.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford

Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma St. to win the Big 12 and take an automatic berth to this game. With the first pick after National Title Game participants are replaced (Sugar picks first), the Fiesta will take Stanford with Michigan off the board.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Houston

This bowl is in a bad spot. They will be unable to get an SEC team as a replacement like usual. Given that, they will take an excited Michigan fanbase and Houston because as bad as Houston might be in the eyes of the bowls, the Big East Champion is going to be far worse.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs West Virginia

Given the misery that this game goes through annually (deservingly I might add), this is about as good as could be hoped for with the matchup likely to be ACC-Big East again. At least it is a rivalry that hasn't been played in awhile.

Who gets snubbed in this scenario?

Arkansas at 10-2 is beaten by the 2-team rule

The Sugar Bowl can't get its desired SEC team

Boise St. will be ranked higher than many of the BCS participants

Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. will both finish 10-2 and get left out of BCS games

The Orange Bowl will have the ratings poison of ACC Champ against Big East Champ (again, this bowl will be by far the happiest of the bowls to be rid of AQ's)

The people who have to watch the Big East Champ in a BCS Game (though this happens in any scenario)

BCS Bowl Projections and the race to the title game Week 10

Projections are made with future results in mind. Also note that the teams projected may not be the most deserving teams. That is the way bowl games work.

National Championship – LSU vs Oklahoma

LSU is going to win out. Not much question there. In the other spot, I think everyone else except Boise St. gets beat amongst the undefeated teams. At that point, Oklahoma, as the team doing the beating of Oklahoma St., jumps Boise into the title game.

Rose Bowl – Stanford vs Ohio St.

Ohio St. is going to win out. Do that and all they need is a Penn St. loss to either Nebraska or Wisconsin to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Given the current turmoil off the field at Penn St., I like the Buckeyes chances. As for Stanford, I project a loss, but to Notre Dame, not this week to Oregon.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Wisconsin

Oklahoma St. slides right in replacing Oklahoma as the Big 12 rep. As for Wisconsin, they will be irresistible at 2 losses for any bowl game with the traveling horde that follows them. If available, this bowl will take Oklahoma and Nebraska in less than a second, even if one or both are not entirely deserving.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St.

The game everyone really wants to see, and it happens when the Fiesta passes on Boise St. after having had them twice in the last five years.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Cincinnati

This bowl is still paying for all the favors it took in the pre-BCS era and for the Iowa-USC matchup in 2002. Given that they are stuck with the ACC Champion (though Clemson is, by far, the best non-Florida St. or Miami tv draw in the league) and the last pick, this matchup is destined to suck this season.

National Title Contenders

LSU – Win out, play for National Title

Oklahoma St. - Win Out, play for National Title

Alabama – Get a wholescale collapse, 2007-style while winning out. Either that or get an Arkansas win over LSU and steal the tiebreaker at the end.

Stanford – Win out and get either and Oklahoma St. or LSU loss. Don't be alarmed at number 4 ranking this week. As soon as they beat Oregon, that will be rectified.

Boise St. - Win out and get a lot of help. Among the contenders, Boise needs almost. If LSU remains undefeated, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma obviously trump Boise. Oregon and Alabama could be done in by the voters not wanting a title game rematch.

Oklahoma – Win out and get a Stanford loss. Would beat Oklahoma St. along the way. Might need Oklahoma St. to remain undefeated until Bedlam game as well (likely).

Oregon – Win out, hope for a collapse from everyone else and hope the voters prefer a non-conference rematch instead of a conference rematch. Likely done for in the National Title Race without 2 LSU losses to eliminate them.

Arkansas – Win out and win the tiebreaker for the SEC West. Ideally, this would be with an Auburn win over Alabama to eliminate Alabama entirely as winning the 3-way tiebreaker looks impossibly bleak for Arkansas. Also needs a loss by two of Oklahoma St., Oklahoma and Stanford.

Everybody else is completely cooked in the National Title race.

BCS Bowl Projections – End of September

These projections will next show up at the end of October and then weekly in November until the BCS pairings are announced in December.

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs LSU

I have changed from my preseason Virginia Tech projection for various reasons (which can be read below). For Oklahoma, they aren't losing at home leaving Oklahoma St. and Texas as the only legit chances to lose. Texas isn't ready yet in its rebuilding process and Oklahoma St. hasn't stopped an Oklahoma offense since 2002. That won't change this season.

As for LSU, their defense is amazing and I think they will be able to bottle up Alabama considering the Crimson Tide has no downfield passing threat whatsoever.

Others considered: Alabama, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Michigan, Georgia Tech

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Oregon

Wisconsin has looked incredible thus far against subpar competition. Considering I believe most of the Big Ten is subpar, that won't change though the Badgers will blow a game somewhere along the line in mind-numbing fashion.

As for Oregon, there is no shame in losing to LSU, especially in the opener and I have seen nothing since that leads me to believe anyone in the Pac-12 is going to stop the Duck offense (that includes Stanford).

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Nebraska

While I believe Oklahoma St. will lose a game before the annual loss to Oklahoma, that will still be good enough to get them to the Big 12 tied-in Fiesta Bowl at 10-2. As for their opponent, the Fiesta won't be able to resist the Nebraska traveling fanbase they that haven't gotten in the BCS era despite its previous membership in the Big 12. If Nebraska isn't here, I expect it to be Michigan, who could go 10-2 in a weak Big Ten.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs West Virginia

The Sugar is taking the SEC West runner up barring something unforeseen (Florida upset of Alabama or LSU). When given a choice between Boise St. and West Virginia, the Bowl will go for West Virginia's traveling horde over Boise going halfway across the country.

Orange Bowl – Georgia Tech vs Boise St.

The Yellow Jackets have returned to their form from two years ago, just in time to make Virginia Tech's schedule significantly more difficult. They will win at home against the Hokies to spoil Virginia Tech's undefeated run (if VT even gets past a much improved Clemson) and take their division. This development will also lead the Orange Bowl to try anything is can to get out from the ACC tie-in. The other bowls won't care and won't allow it. Then, to compound matters for the Orange Bowl, they will be hosting a non-AQ for the first time. At this point, bowl executives will want to jump off a building.

After the jump are others considered for BCS slots.

BCS Standings Analysis + Bowl Projections

As everyone has written already, the best thing that happened for TCU was the Alabama loss to LSU. For Boise St., problems now ensue and everyone else get things reshuffled except front runners Auburn and LSU.

Most Likely to be in National Title Game in order from most likely to least likely

Oregon – Win out and play for the title

Auburn – Same as Oregon

TCU – If either of the top two loses, TCU, with its humiliation of Utah in hand now, can withstand any one loss team

Auburn with a loss – If the loss is to Alabama on the road but the Tigers bounce back and win the SEC Title, I think the computers would prop them up over Boise St., especially if the opponent in the SEC Title game is Florida

Boise St. - While they won't have their customary late season slide in the computers this year because the WAC is stronger than normal, it still won't leap them over teams into title contention barring chaos. Best bet is for Oregon and TCU to both lose a game

Wisconsin – Don't have the long-term pedigree of an Ohio St. or Alabama needed to jump undefeated Boise St. or TCU and remains in front of Ohio St. in the pecking order because of head to head win

Oklahoma St. - In the same position as Wisconsin and have the chance to avenge loss to Nebraska in Big 12 Title game if they get there. Strong in the computers and the polls would come around, but need lots of losses above them

LSU and Stanford – Both are very strong, but in the bad spot of needing two losses by their conference leader. Voters won't put one of these two in the title game without a conference title (remember that Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 getting to play for the title without winning the Big 12 was one of the main complaints about the original BCS Ranking system) and conference titles look nearly unattainable

Nebraska – The Texas loss is going to be an albatross in any scenario in the computers leaving the Cornhuskers on the outside looking in no matter what happens

Anybody else – The scenario is too chaotic to even begin to comprehend

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs TCU

Nobody in the Pac-10 is beating Oregon unless good Cal shows up and the Ducks play a terrible game at the same time this week. For TCU, its even easier getting a San Diego St. team that doesn't have the talent to stay with the Frogs but will help in the computers and New Mexico (who at least managed to win a game). Auburn isn't here because I think they will lose at Alabama.

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford

I don't think Michigan St. will beat Penn St. at this point. Given that, all Wisconsin has to do is win out and the Rose Bowl is theirs. As for Stanford, the Rose Bowl will pick the Cardinal to replace Oregon. The non-BCS provision that has kept Boise St. here all season means nothing if there is a non-BCS team playing for the title leaving the Rose Bowl freed to take Stanford.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU

I admit this might be a stretch. The Orange Bowl seems to go out of its way to screw somebody whenever possible anymore so its possible an 11-1 Ohio St. could land here over LSU. I don't think that will happen but it is a possibility. As for the ACC, after the collective self destruction in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech holding a two game lead with three to play in the Coastal, we can probably safely put the Hokies here.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Boise St.

Auburn wins the SEC title game and heads to the Sugar Bowl (though don't discount a Florida upset that would kill Boise St.'s BCS hopes entirely, particularly with the Kansas St. rule of having to take any team in the top four seemingly not in effect anymore, because Florida would need a marquee opponent like Ohio St. to motivate their fans to travel) and faces undefeated Boise St. The Broncos will be mad about being excluded from the title game and out to prove something against the SEC champ.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

Nebraska will win the Big 12. Pittsburgh is the scraps left from the Big East. No controversy or anything to see here.

Teams still in the running by conference after the jump

BCS Breakdown + Bowl Projections October 25

Top 10 teams in the BCS
1 Auburn
2 Oregon
3 Boise St.
4 TCU
5 Michigan St.
6 Missouri
7 Alabama
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin

What it really means – the real national title picture. Teams higher up are closer to the title game if they win out
1 Auburn – An undefeated SEC Champion isn't going to get left out under any circumstances no matter what
2 Oregon – The Ducks are a strong number one in the polls and have room to improve in the computers which they will if they keep winning
3 Missouri – Missouri has two high profile games remaining, one this week at Nebraska and a possible Big 12 Title game along with a decent Kansas St. team. More than enough to jump Boise St., TCU and Michigan St. as the Big 12 is very strong in the computers
4 TCU – The howling from Big Ten territory if Michigan St. goes undefeated and doesn't pass TCU would be immense, but Baylor's ascension into the top 25 makes that win look much better along with Oregon St. and Utah. Michigan St. missing Ohio St. on the schedule in Big Ten play looks awful right now
5 Michigan St. - Already covered with no Ohio st. on schedule. Computer numbers are good now but could take a hit with weaker Purdue and Minnesota teams left on the schedule along with underachieving Penn St.
6 Boise St. - The voters seem to want the Broncos in the title game somehow if they can manage it. With most of the tougher WAC games coming (Fresno St., Hawaii and Nevada are all competent computer teams on par with the middle tier of most of the major conferences), the Broncos may not drop too much further in the computer component
7 Alabama – SEC fans will howl, but one-loss Tide aren't getting a major quality win in the SEC Title game and that hurts the chances if in fact Alabama runs the table
8 Utah – Utah simply won't jump Alabama even if they beat TCU and Notre Dame
9 Oklahoma – Win out and hope for chaos and an undefeated Missouri in the Big 12 Title game
10 Nebraska – Cornhuskers have the chance against Missouri to get back into the thick of things this week. After that, winning out with a win over Oklahoma is a must.

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs Michigan St.
Ducks seem to be on cruise control heading into the toughest test of the season this Saturday at USC. Michigan St must win at Iowa, certainly possible if Wisconsin managed it, and then its downhill from there. I still don't think TCU is going to run the table impressive though they have been.

Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Wisconsin
Boise will take the non-BCS Rose Bowl slot with a perfect record while Wisconsin is going to run the table with the toughest games behind them on the way to 11-1 and a Rose Bowl berth.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama
I still project Virginia Tech as the ACC Champion. Meanwhile, Alabama will be 10-2 with a win over Auburn allowing them to jump LSU (who will have the head-to-head win and also be 10-2) as the top at-large pick.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Missouri
Auburn wins the SEC despite losing to Alabama (an Alabama loss at LSU in two weeks means an 11-0 Auburn would already have the West clinched going into the Iron Bowl) and faces Missouri who sneaks in over Nebraska despite a head-to-head loss because of a better record (Missouri will be 11-1 with only loss to Nebraska while Nebraska will be 11-2 with loss in Big 12 Title Game) and the nefarious unwritten bowl rule: if the bowl has an option, they prefer not to take a team coming off a lose in its final games because fans down on their team won't travel as well.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Pittsburgh
Oklahoma will win out to take the Big 12 while Pittsburgh seems to be rounding into form to takeover as the best of a sorry lot in the Big East.

Other at-large contenders by league after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections - Post BCS Standings

National Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon

With the BCS Rankings now out for the first time this season, everyone else can now see what I have been saying off and on for the last few weeks: Oregon and Oklahoma will play for the title if they win out. Obviously if one of the remaining two SEC teams wins out, they will jump someone to get into the title game, but I don't think that will happen.

Rose Bowl – Iowa vs Boise St.

Iowa has all of its big games ahead of itself and they are all at home. They will win them all on the way to an 11-1 season. Awaiting them will be Boise St. with a perfect record and number 3 ranking.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama

Virginia Tech is here by virtue of being the projected ACC Champ. Alabama will lose on the road to LSU for a second loss but beat Auburn to reach 10-2 and look good to any bowl game.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Michigan St.

Auburn will win the SEC despite a loss to Alabama at the end of the regular season and Michigan St. will go 11-1. The Spartans will easily end up in one of the BCS games as they have not been to a major bowl since the 1987 Rose Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl – Texas vs West Virginia

Texas has a good chance to win out and a 10-2 Longhorn teams, while not really a fit for most of the games, the Fiesta because of the relationship with the Big 12, would take them (or one of the other Big 12 teams).

Other At-Large contenders by league after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections Week 7

National Title Game – Oregon vs Oklahoma
I really should stop moving preseason prediction Oklahoma out of this spot. Something makes me look foolish every time I do it. That said, there shouldn’t be any movement this week. Oregon has a bye week and Oklahoma plays overmatched Iowa St.

Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Iowa
I did some additional thinking and Iowa plays both Michigan St. and Ohio St. at home. This means they have a good chance to run the table putting them in the Rose Bowl with a perfect conference record. Boise St. is still here in the non-BCS league champ spot.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Ohio St.
With Ohio St. at 11-1 and in the at-large pool after the Fiesta takes Nebraska to replace Oklahoma, the Sugar does the sensible thing and puts together a blockbuster Alabama-Ohio St. game.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU
I still have Virginia Tech in the ACC though Florida St. makes a compelling case. On the other side, I think LSU will beat Auburn next week and end up 11-1 with a loss to Alabama. With crazy Les Miles from the SEC, that equals rare ratings gold for the Orange Bowl.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs West Virginia
Nebraska will be the pick to replace Oklahoma and West Virginia as the Big East Champ is the last team left over without question.

Other legit BCS possibilities by conference after the jump

BCS Bowl Projections – Week 5

I know its a little late but the Oklahoma St.-Texas A&M game last night didn't change anything here.

BCS Title Game – Oklahoma vs Oregon

I still have both of these teams as the only major conference undefeateds as I believe Alabama is due for a big Championship Saturday upset (its been awhile since we had one of those) and Ohio St. will lose at Wisconsin. Oregon will run the table in the Pac-10 with its toughest remaining games at home while Oklahoma will take advantage of a weak Big 12 to run the table even though they are most certainly not one of the best two teams and won't be even if they do win out.

Rose Bowl – Ohio St. vs Boise St.

The Buckeyes are only going to lose once while Boise St. ends up here because of the Rose Bowl being forced to take the best non-BCS team even if the second place Pac-10 team is in the top 10.

Sugar Bowl – Florida vs Nebraska

Florida lands here as the SEC Champion and the Sugar Bowl picking its team before the Orange takes Nebraska and its traveling horde of fans.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Wisconsin

I project Clemson to this game as the ACC Champ but that doesn't really matter. It could be Miami, Virginia Tech or NC State just as easily. On the other side, the second place team in the Pac-10 will be more deserving that Wisconsin, but the Badgers and their traveling fans will get the nod over a Arizona or Stanford.

Fiesta Bowl – Alabama vs West Virginia

After losing Oklahoma, the Fiesta has the first pick of teams. Normally this would go to an eligible Big 12 team, but that team is Nebraska and with them on the way out of the league and Alabama on the board after losing the SEC Title Game, the Fiesta takes the Crimson Tide. On the downside, the Fiesta also has the last pick meaning they get leftover West Virginia, the projected Big East champ.

Others considered for BCS games, by league after the jump