Why there should never be a BCS Title Rematch

I am staunchly anti-rematch. Back in 1996, I understood Florida getting a rematch against Florida St. because it was before the BCS system and before the Pac-10 and Big Ten were allowed into the championship game. In some years in that era, it was unavoidable. The Big Ten and Pac-10 champions were ranked too high for any other outcome to be possible. That said, I still didn't like the rematch and would have favored Nebraska to get the spot over Florida had they not lost to Texas in the Big 12 Championship game.

I bring this up because we, unless you have been living under a rock (which is certainly possible for some of you), are staring down the barrel of an LSU-Alabama rematch. And I don't like it at all. Here are my reasons:

There is not enough non-conference play to determine with sort of true merit that two teams that played each other are definitively better than everyone else in college football, even if it appears to be so.

In the context of this season, I bring to you the Big 12. Yes, Iowa St. is a middling Big 12 team. So is Texas Tech. Those two teams beat the elite of the conference: Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. But if you look closer, neither team lost a non-conference game. They only played three each and both teams won all of them. How can we say, with any certainty that these teams are weaker or stronger than middling SEC teams like Auburn and Florida (who, by the way, are higher on the SEC foodchain this season than Iowa St. and Texas Tech are on the Big 12 foodchain)? We can't, because we haven't seen enough evidence. We can speculate and guess (if I had to, I would guess Auburn would beat both Big 12 schools and Florida would beat Texas Tech but not Iowa St.), but there is no empirical evidence that one set of teams is better than the other. This applies to the conference as a whole, an increasing problem when conferences are often judged as a whole.

So if the loser beats the winner, which should be ranked higher

Obivously, the one that should be ranked higher is the one with the better body of work. Except in the BCS, if we have a rematch and Alabama wins, they will be the champion with an inferior body of work. I'm ok with this normally with a head to head win, but not when the loser would also have a head to head win. Honestly, if I were voting and we have a rematch, an Alabama win doesn't affect my vote at all. LSU is the number 1 team in a rematch scenario, period.

Shouldn't the National Champion also have to win its conference

Obviously, this is not the case in some other sports (college basketball in particular where every so often you get a champion that won neither its regular season or conference tournament championships), but those sports have playoffs that are designed to reward more teams with a postseason trip and a shot at the title. This sport also rewards teams, but with a bowl game. Not a championship shot. And as long as that is the case and only two out of 120 get a shot at it, the National Champion should be a conference champion unless they aren't in a conference. Go back to 2001 and 2003. How loud was the screaming that non-conference champions got into the National Championship Game. How loud would it have been had Michigan gotten a rematch against Ohio St. without even a share of the conference championship (particularly from the same SEC country that is now arguing in favor of an Alabama-LSU rematch)? With all of that and the whole we won the conference over the National Champions thing to stain the title and it's just not worth it.

Every game counts right

The crux of the argument. In the BCS, every game is supposed to count. And, despite all the controversy in past years, every game has counted (expect one). Even in 2001 when Nebraska didn't win its division and got to the title game, there were many things that could have prevented (chief among them being the playing of the Washington St.-Colorado game canceled because of 9/11 that would have lifted either 2-loss Colorado or Pac-10 Champ Oregon into the championship game) the Cornhuskers from reaching the game. The one time a game didn't count, we got the single most unsatisfying result of the BCS era, and that's saying something considering the existence of so many unfulfilled seasons and controversies. That year was the year of the split national title because the Oklahoma-Kansas St. game didn't count in the eyes of the BCS. Now, we have reached the same point. The LSU-Alabama would not have counted in the eyes of the BCS if we get a rematch and we are setting ourselves up for a fate that is quite awful and terrible if we allow it... of course the fact that it is so awful and terrible for the BCS, is one of the many reasons people are in favor of a rematch.

Week 13 BCS Breakdown

I have already poured over the standings (along with my team of super inteeligent monkeys and the extra voices in my head) to figure out everything anyone needs to know about the BCS this season. Here it is.

Standings (with projected bowl)

1 LSU (National Championship Game)

2 Alabama (National Championship Game)

3 Arkansas (Capital One Bowl)

4 Oklahoma St. (Cotton Bowl)

5 Virginia Tech (Orange Bowl)

6 Stanford (Fiesta Bowl)

7 Boise St. (Poinsettia Bowl)

8 Houston (Sugar Bowl)

9 Oklahoma (Fiesta Bowl)

10 Oregon (Rose Bowl)

Teams in National Title Race and what they need to reach the title game

LSU – Win remaining games.

Alabama – Win remaining games, Oklahoma St. loss wouldn't hurt but may not be necessary

Arkansas – Win out, either Alabama or Oklahoma St. (and possibly both) need to lose

Oklahoma St. - Beat Oklahoma, Arkansas must lose to LSU, Alabama might need to lose to Auburn. SEC Championship Game upset would be helpful.

Virginia Tech – Win out, get an Oklahoma St. loss and then hope there is extreme distaste for a rematch and Stanford doesn't win the Pac-12.

Stanford – Win out, probably need the conference title meaning an Oregon loss to Oregon St. and the entire Virginia Tech scenario.

BCS Bowl Projections + explanations

National Title Game – LSU vs Alabama

Nobody really wants a rematch, but there won't be another choice when Oklahoma St. loses to Oklahoma. Even if the pollsters move Stanford or Virginia Tech over Alabama, the margin won't be big and the computers will keep Alabama in the 2 slot.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin

Oregon may have lost to USC, but the likelihood of them losing to Oregon St. or whoever comes out of the Pac-12 South at home is slim to none. As for Wisconsin, they are going to beat Penn St. at home and then get their revenge against Michigan St.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford

Oklahoma will beat Oklahoma St. to win the Big 12 and take an automatic berth to this game. With the first pick after National Title Game participants are replaced (Sugar picks first), the Fiesta will take Stanford with Michigan off the board.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan vs Houston

This bowl is in a bad spot. They will be unable to get an SEC team as a replacement like usual. Given that, they will take an excited Michigan fanbase and Houston because as bad as Houston might be in the eyes of the bowls, the Big East Champion is going to be far worse.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs West Virginia

Given the misery that this game goes through annually (deservingly I might add), this is about as good as could be hoped for with the matchup likely to be ACC-Big East again. At least it is a rivalry that hasn't been played in awhile.

Who gets snubbed in this scenario?

Arkansas at 10-2 is beaten by the 2-team rule

The Sugar Bowl can't get its desired SEC team

Boise St. will be ranked higher than many of the BCS participants

Oklahoma St. and Kansas St. will both finish 10-2 and get left out of BCS games

The Orange Bowl will have the ratings poison of ACC Champ against Big East Champ (again, this bowl will be by far the happiest of the bowls to be rid of AQ's)

The people who have to watch the Big East Champ in a BCS Game (though this happens in any scenario)

BCS Insanity - Projections and the Like

Projections – These are made with the attempt to predict future games

National Title Game – LSU vs Clemson – These will be the only two undefeated AQ teams, ergo, this will be the title game matchup.

Rose Bowl – Oregon vs Wisconsin – Ducks will find a way to beat Stanford while Wisconsin will beat the winner of the Michigan St./Nebraska game this weekend in the Big Ten Title Game.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Stanford – With the Big Ten and SEC off the board and a Big 12 team already in this game, the Fiesta will take one-loss Stanford and pit Andrew Luck against Oklahma's high powered offense.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St. - This matchup should be obvious, especially cinsdiering nobody wants the Big East Champion

Orange Bowl – Nebraska vs Cincinnati – With the second at-large to replace anchor Clemson, the Orange will go for nostalgia (at least for themselves) and pick Nebraska before getting stuck with Big East Champ Cincinnati.

Teams still in hunt for BCS Championship Game and what they need to get there

LSU – Tigers need to win out. A loss will kill them because it would cause them to lose any tiebreakers in SEC West play, meaning they won't win the conference and with no conference title, there will be no national title shot.

Alabama – Not in as dire a straits as LSU if they lose a game (especially if its the Auburn game). As long as Alabama wins the division and there aren't two undefeated AQ teams, Alabama plays for the title even with a loss as long as they win the SEC.

Oklahoma St. - Cowboys win out and play for the title. A loss anywhere against the remaining schedule likely leaves them toast given the possible losses would either cause a lost tiebreaker in conference play or be a loss to the likes of Baylor. That won't get a non-historic powerhouse to the National Championship.

Boise St. - Need to win out and needs either the SEC champ to be the only AQ undefeated or the SEC champ to have two losses with only one other AQ undefeated. Probably would help to be impressive in victory to keep a possible one-loss Big 12 team out of the top spot.

Clemson – Win out, get a loss by the Alabama/LSU winner or Oklahoma St. Win the coin flip over Stanford or have the Cardinal lose.

Stanford – Same scenario as Clemson.

Kansas St. - Win out and play for the title. Lose and enjoy San Diego for the Holiday Bowl.

Oklahoma – Same scenario as Boise St. Might need a loss from Boise St. as well.

Arkansas – Win out and preferably blow LSU out. LSU also needs to beat Alabama. And there need to be no more than 1 AQ undefeated

South Carolina – Win out and have less than 2 AQ undefeateds (Good luck with that one without Lattimore)

Given those scenarios, what is the probability of the chaos so many root for? 10% - The number actually shrinks because Wisconsin is no longer undefeated and the Badgers were likely to get left out if they finished undefeated and there were two other AQ undefeateds.

After the jump are the scenarios for teams to reach one of the lesser BCS games.

BCS Standings Analysis + Bowl Projections

As everyone has written already, the best thing that happened for TCU was the Alabama loss to LSU. For Boise St., problems now ensue and everyone else get things reshuffled except front runners Auburn and LSU.

Most Likely to be in National Title Game in order from most likely to least likely

Oregon – Win out and play for the title

Auburn – Same as Oregon

TCU – If either of the top two loses, TCU, with its humiliation of Utah in hand now, can withstand any one loss team

Auburn with a loss – If the loss is to Alabama on the road but the Tigers bounce back and win the SEC Title, I think the computers would prop them up over Boise St., especially if the opponent in the SEC Title game is Florida

Boise St. - While they won't have their customary late season slide in the computers this year because the WAC is stronger than normal, it still won't leap them over teams into title contention barring chaos. Best bet is for Oregon and TCU to both lose a game

Wisconsin – Don't have the long-term pedigree of an Ohio St. or Alabama needed to jump undefeated Boise St. or TCU and remains in front of Ohio St. in the pecking order because of head to head win

Oklahoma St. - In the same position as Wisconsin and have the chance to avenge loss to Nebraska in Big 12 Title game if they get there. Strong in the computers and the polls would come around, but need lots of losses above them

LSU and Stanford – Both are very strong, but in the bad spot of needing two losses by their conference leader. Voters won't put one of these two in the title game without a conference title (remember that Nebraska in 2001 and Oklahoma in 2003 getting to play for the title without winning the Big 12 was one of the main complaints about the original BCS Ranking system) and conference titles look nearly unattainable

Nebraska – The Texas loss is going to be an albatross in any scenario in the computers leaving the Cornhuskers on the outside looking in no matter what happens

Anybody else – The scenario is too chaotic to even begin to comprehend

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs TCU

Nobody in the Pac-10 is beating Oregon unless good Cal shows up and the Ducks play a terrible game at the same time this week. For TCU, its even easier getting a San Diego St. team that doesn't have the talent to stay with the Frogs but will help in the computers and New Mexico (who at least managed to win a game). Auburn isn't here because I think they will lose at Alabama.

Rose Bowl – Wisconsin vs Stanford

I don't think Michigan St. will beat Penn St. at this point. Given that, all Wisconsin has to do is win out and the Rose Bowl is theirs. As for Stanford, the Rose Bowl will pick the Cardinal to replace Oregon. The non-BCS provision that has kept Boise St. here all season means nothing if there is a non-BCS team playing for the title leaving the Rose Bowl freed to take Stanford.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs LSU

I admit this might be a stretch. The Orange Bowl seems to go out of its way to screw somebody whenever possible anymore so its possible an 11-1 Ohio St. could land here over LSU. I don't think that will happen but it is a possibility. As for the ACC, after the collective self destruction in the Atlantic and Virginia Tech holding a two game lead with three to play in the Coastal, we can probably safely put the Hokies here.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Boise St.

Auburn wins the SEC title game and heads to the Sugar Bowl (though don't discount a Florida upset that would kill Boise St.'s BCS hopes entirely, particularly with the Kansas St. rule of having to take any team in the top four seemingly not in effect anymore, because Florida would need a marquee opponent like Ohio St. to motivate their fans to travel) and faces undefeated Boise St. The Broncos will be mad about being excluded from the title game and out to prove something against the SEC champ.

Fiesta Bowl – Nebraska vs Pittsburgh

Nebraska will win the Big 12. Pittsburgh is the scraps left from the Big East. No controversy or anything to see here.

Teams still in the running by conference after the jump

BCS Breakdown + Bowl Projections October 25

Top 10 teams in the BCS
1 Auburn
2 Oregon
3 Boise St.
4 TCU
5 Michigan St.
6 Missouri
7 Alabama
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin

What it really means – the real national title picture. Teams higher up are closer to the title game if they win out
1 Auburn – An undefeated SEC Champion isn't going to get left out under any circumstances no matter what
2 Oregon – The Ducks are a strong number one in the polls and have room to improve in the computers which they will if they keep winning
3 Missouri – Missouri has two high profile games remaining, one this week at Nebraska and a possible Big 12 Title game along with a decent Kansas St. team. More than enough to jump Boise St., TCU and Michigan St. as the Big 12 is very strong in the computers
4 TCU – The howling from Big Ten territory if Michigan St. goes undefeated and doesn't pass TCU would be immense, but Baylor's ascension into the top 25 makes that win look much better along with Oregon St. and Utah. Michigan St. missing Ohio St. on the schedule in Big Ten play looks awful right now
5 Michigan St. - Already covered with no Ohio st. on schedule. Computer numbers are good now but could take a hit with weaker Purdue and Minnesota teams left on the schedule along with underachieving Penn St.
6 Boise St. - The voters seem to want the Broncos in the title game somehow if they can manage it. With most of the tougher WAC games coming (Fresno St., Hawaii and Nevada are all competent computer teams on par with the middle tier of most of the major conferences), the Broncos may not drop too much further in the computer component
7 Alabama – SEC fans will howl, but one-loss Tide aren't getting a major quality win in the SEC Title game and that hurts the chances if in fact Alabama runs the table
8 Utah – Utah simply won't jump Alabama even if they beat TCU and Notre Dame
9 Oklahoma – Win out and hope for chaos and an undefeated Missouri in the Big 12 Title game
10 Nebraska – Cornhuskers have the chance against Missouri to get back into the thick of things this week. After that, winning out with a win over Oklahoma is a must.

BCS Bowl Projections

National Title Game – Oregon vs Michigan St.
Ducks seem to be on cruise control heading into the toughest test of the season this Saturday at USC. Michigan St must win at Iowa, certainly possible if Wisconsin managed it, and then its downhill from there. I still don't think TCU is going to run the table impressive though they have been.

Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Wisconsin
Boise will take the non-BCS Rose Bowl slot with a perfect record while Wisconsin is going to run the table with the toughest games behind them on the way to 11-1 and a Rose Bowl berth.

Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama
I still project Virginia Tech as the ACC Champion. Meanwhile, Alabama will be 10-2 with a win over Auburn allowing them to jump LSU (who will have the head-to-head win and also be 10-2) as the top at-large pick.

Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Missouri
Auburn wins the SEC despite losing to Alabama (an Alabama loss at LSU in two weeks means an 11-0 Auburn would already have the West clinched going into the Iron Bowl) and faces Missouri who sneaks in over Nebraska despite a head-to-head loss because of a better record (Missouri will be 11-1 with only loss to Nebraska while Nebraska will be 11-2 with loss in Big 12 Title Game) and the nefarious unwritten bowl rule: if the bowl has an option, they prefer not to take a team coming off a lose in its final games because fans down on their team won't travel as well.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Pittsburgh
Oklahoma will win out to take the Big 12 while Pittsburgh seems to be rounding into form to takeover as the best of a sorry lot in the Big East.

Other at-large contenders by league after the jump