Showing posts with label Tour de France Daily. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tour de France Daily. Show all posts

Jul 22, 2012

Tour de France Final Review - Cavendish and Wiggins cap celebration of British Cycling


Today's stage: A sprint battle royale on the Champs-Elysses to finish the Tour de France.

Who won today's stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) won the final sprint for a record 4th year in a row, taking his third stage win of the Tour to match Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol). The win also gave Cavendish the record for career Tour de France stage wins by a sprinter.

What matters in the GC race? Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) finished to win the Tour de France. He is the first British rider to win the Tour. As a side note, Team Sky was formed three years ago with the goal of having a British Tour de France champion by 2015. Objective achieved. Also, Wiggins has completed the greatest stage race season ever having won Paris-Nice, the Tour of Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphine. Second place was Chris Froome (Team Sky) and third place and on the final podium was Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) did his green jersey proud by finishing second on the stage today behind Cavendish. Sagan was by far the strongest rider among those that really contested the jersey.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) won this jersey with his two mountain stage victories after the two rest days.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) ended up winning by over 6 minutes. Next up for him are the August stage race in the United States.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT won the team competition, it's biggest objective with no GC contender on the roster after Andy Schleck's injury before the Tour de France.

Biggest surprise of the entire race: Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) wasn't supposed to race the Tour de France. Too young (youngest rider in the race) and too inexperienced (no Grand Tours, these guys usually race at least one Vuelta or Giro before getting a shot at the Tour). But Pinot lobbied for the final team spot after an injury occurred and he made it pay off. A stage win and a top 10 overall finish for a Frenchman is incredible. Along with Pierre Rolland (Europcar), French cycling finally has a future other than stage hunters again.

Biggest disappointment of the entire race: Nobody ever really challenged Sky. Early on, Team Sky just rode at the front and let the crashes behind kill off their rivals (looks at Garmin and Rabobank's tattered remains after stage 6). Then they pounced in the mountains (Jurgen Van Den Broeck did puncture right before the start of the climb on stage 7, costing him over two minutes), killing everyone except Vincenzo Nibali off easily at some point during the race. As for Nibali, he had no help at all. Liquigas has little mountains support and all of it was tired and off-form after racing very hard to control the race (futilely I add) in the Giro. Eventually, he tired as well and no matter he was never going to take the necessary time to avoid being smoked in the time trials by the specialists.

Other items of note: For teams, the stage win breakdown is as follows: Team Sky, 6 (Cavendish, 3; Wiggins, 2; Froome, 1); Liquigas, 3 (All Sagan); Lotto-Belisol, 3 (All Greipel); Europcar, 3 (Voeckler, 2; Rolland, 1); FDJ, 2 (Pinot, 1; Fedrigo, 1); RSNT, 1 (Cancellara); Movistar, 1 (Valverde); Rabobank, 1 (Sanchez); Garmin, 1 (Millar)... The Super-Combative Prize for most aggressive rider of the whole Tor went to Chris Anker Sorenson (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff). Sorenson was in a multitude of breakaways searching for either a stage win or King of the Mountain points. He ended up third in the KoM and 14th overall.

What is coming next for the peloton? Next up for many are the Olympics. The Road Race is on Saturday (I will be in London for the festivities) and the Time Trial on Thursday the week after that. From there, it's back to the normal schedule. For the American riders and teams, that means prep for the USAPCC. For everyone else, that means relax time or get ready for the Vuelta and World Championships. The Vuelta, and the return of Contador is less than four week away.

Jul 21, 2012

Tour de France Final TT Review - Wiggins Destroys Field to Claim Yellow


Today's stage: The final time trial. A day when many Champions have confirms their strength in this race.

Who won today's stage? Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) did what a champion is supposed to do in the final time trial: win the thing. Of course the shock is that he destroyed the field again, just like the first time trial. Only his teammate Chris Froome and Spanish time trial champion Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) were within two minutes of Wiggins on the stage and the overall victory is confirmed by a large margin.

What matters in the GC race? No change on the podium. The time gaps between Wiggins, Froome and Vincezno Nibali (Liquigas) got larger. Below them there was some reshuffling in the bottom half of the top ten. Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) struggled in the time trial and dropped to 7th place behind Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) has clinched the Green Jersey.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) has clinched the Polka Dot Jersey.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) officially clinched the White Jersey over Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) today, but the competition hasn't been in doubt since the end of the mountains.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Sky closed down 8 minutes in the time trial with Richie Porte finishing 5th along with Wiggins and Froome, but it wasn't enough to overtake RSNT for the team title.

Biggest surprise: Tejay van Garderen caught Cadel Evans on the course. Van Garderen and Evans started three minutes apart but Evans was awful in the early part of the course allowing van Garderen to catch his team leader in a big surprise.

Biggest disappointment: Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) and Tony Martin (OPQS) were not here, having long since abandoned the race. It would have been nice to see these two challenge Wiggins and Froome in the time trial after three weeks of racing as one of them has often won the final time trial in recent years.

What is coming tomorrow? Sprint battle royale on the Champs-Elysses.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish 2. Andre Greipel 3. Matt Goss

Jul 20, 2012

Tour de France Stage 18 Review - Cavendish Destroys Sprint Field


Today’s stage: Rolling hills, Most thought breakaway. I thought sprint. I was right.

Who won today’s stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) launched an amazing sprint destroying the other sprinters and passing the other two breakaway riders before the line to take the stage easily.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing. Nothing at all. This was a day for GC contenders to stay in the group and conserve energy before the time trial tomorrow.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Not much. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) was 3rd on the stage and extended his lead further, not that he needed to.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) had already clinched this competition over Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) at the beginning of the stage. All Voeckler must do is finish in Paris.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) has nearly wrapped this up. Only a time trial crash could deny him considering his only rival Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) is not a great time trialist.
Team Classification (Calculated by added the three best times on each team each day) – No changes. This goes to the time trial. RSNT leads Team Sky by 14’ 05. In the first time trial, Sky won the stage over RSNT by 1’ 26, but that was with everyone except Froome and Wiggins slow pedaling and Fabian Cancellara was still in the race. Given that Cancellara is no longer around and Sky riders Richie Porte and Michael Rogers are elite time trialists, there is a chance that Sky could make up that gap.

Biggest surprise: The break never really formed. All day there were small attacks and groups got away, but nobody ever got over three minutes as the peloton seemed intent on a sprint. It was almost as though the sprinter teams didn’t even want to risk another Sky controlled slow pedal day allowing the break to win by 10 minutes and so they decided the best way to avoid was to not allow the break to ever go anywhere.

Biggest disappointment: None. The actions of the peloton not letting a break go and chasing the constant attacks made for a fast and entertaining stage. The constitution of the attacks with big names like Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) and Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) made for entertaining, attacking riding.

Other items of note: All of the jerseys are pretty much secure. It’s not often this happens in the Tour de France before the final time trial (though the KoM is always decided by this point)…The final podium is pretty much set with Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome and VIncenzo Nibali. This has been more normal over the years despite the recent years of having GC battles in the final time trial… For those teams that don’t have a win, it is probably over for them. Only Orica-GreenEdge with perpetual second place Matt Goss has any chance from among the non-stage winning teams has any chance to win a stage… Poor Luis Leon Sanchez. While he did get his stage win, it was on the tacks stage so nobody remembers. Other than that, he crashed and damaged his wrist on stage 1 and he was chased down by Sky twice on late attacks that looked promising.

What is coming tomorrow? Time trial. Flat. Built for specialists. This is Bradley Wiggins territory, especially with Cancellara and Tony Martin out of the race.

Tomorrow’s prediction: 1. Bradley Wiggins 2. Chris Froome 3. Tejay van Gerderen

Jul 19, 2012

Tour de France Stage 17 Review - Valverde wins stage as Wiggins confirms victory


Today's stage: The final summit finish of this year's Tour de France after another full day of climbing.

Who won today's stage? Alejandro Valverde (Movistar) got in the breakaway, attacked on the Port de Bales climb and was the only survivor of the breakaway, taking a solo victory by 19 seconds over the GC contenders. The win proves Valverde is back in full from his doping suspension that he served last year.

What matters in the GC race? The podium didn't change. Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome (Team Sky) finished second and third on the stage and extended their lead over Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). Behind them, former 5th place Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT) was dropped and lost big time, falling to 7th. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) moved up to 5th and Cadel Evans (BMC), despite being dropped himself, moved up to 6th.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – No changes, but that doesn't matter. As long as Peter Sagan (Liquigas) remains in the race, he will win this category.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) stayed on Fredrik Kessikoff's wheel until the top of climbs and took the points needed to seal the victory in the classification. At one point, Voeckler, going back to yesterday, won seven straight summits. That is the way to win the King of the Mountains.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – While Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) finished ahead of Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), he didn't gain nearly enough time to even threaten the white jersey as Van Garderen is likely to be in the top 10 of the time trial on Saturday.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Despite Zubeldia losing time, RSNT still didn't lose a lot. They did lose a few minutes and now lead Team Sky by 14 minutes.

Biggest surprise: Somebody other than Team Sky had a plan that worked. Many teams and riders have had a successful Tour so far, but other than Team Sky, it seemed to be backup plans or throw riders up the road in breakaways and see what happens, especially since we moved away from the sprint stages. Today, Movistar put three riders in the break including team leaders Valverde and Rui Costa. On the Port de Bales, they sent Rui Costa on the attack and then had Valverde bridge to him before soloing up to the top and down the descent. It was a very similar tactic to what Thomas de Gendt and his Vacansoleil team did on the Stelvio stage of the Giro d'Italia and it worked just as well here, getting Movistar it's first stage win of the Tour.

Biggest disappointment: What was Liquigas doing? All race long in the Giro I thought they were tactically bad and they showed today that nothing changed even though half of the team did since then. Today, for the first time all race, Vincenzo Nibali had help from his team. Of course the help he had was a team grinding everybody down Team Sky style. That's great when you're the Tour leader, less so when you only end up grinding down everyone except Sky and help crack your own team leader on the final climb when he needs to make up big time. Also, where was this kind of team showing when it was needed earlier in the race. Nibali tried to attack in the Alps and never had teammates with him from pretty much the moment the road turned uphill there. Just bizarre and bad tactics out of Liquigas.

Other items of note: At one point early on, Nibali was with the breakaway. They told him to go back to the group. So he did. It was probably the right move given the point on the stage they were at, but I'm not sure, especially considering Nibali cracked later in the day... With the high mountains done, those who like their summit finishes can now turn to the Vuelta, It has an insane seven summit finishes and three additional uphill-classic like finishes. Combined with the time bonuses, it looks like an incredible spectacle, or a Contador domination like the 2011 Giro route.

What is coming tomorrow? Transition out of the mountains stage. This is often a breakaway stage, but with the Orica-GreenEdge team of Matt Goss still without a stage win, that team might chase to set up a sprint finish.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Andre Greipel 2. Matt Goss 3. Mark Cavendish

Jul 18, 2012

Tour de France Stage 16 Review - Voeckler wins again as Sky suffocates race


Today's stage: Big mountains and a major GC battle. Descent finish.

Who won today's stage? Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) went into the breakaway looking for King of the Mountains points. He got a bunch of those and then dropped his companions one by one over the climbs until going solo on the final climb and descending home for his second stage win of this year's Tour.

What matters in the GC race? No changes in the podium. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) attacked three separate times out of the GC group and shed everyone, except the two guys he needed to shed: leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and his second place domestique Chris Froome. Most notably behind, Cadel Evans (BMC) was dropped on both of the final two climbs and lost over 4 minutes. He will remain in the top 10 as Janez Brajkovic (Astana), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) and Pierre Rolland (Europcar) were all dropped by the second GC group led by Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol). Van den Broeck is now 4th overall followed by Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT), Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) and Evans.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – No changes, but that doesn't matter. As long as Peter Sagan (Liquigas) remains in the race, he will win this category.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Voeckler was in the break for the KoM points, and he got enough of them to take the lead from Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana). The lead is only four points though with another huge mountain stage tomorrow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – With Pinot dropped, Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) made his lead nearly insurmountable unless he explodes tomorrow. Still, this is a head to head battle.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Even without Frank Schleck (out of the Tour after doping positive), RSNT extended its lead in the team competition. They now lead Sky by over 17 minutes and look likely to extend that lead again tomorrow before surrendering at least some of the lead back to Sky on the Saturday time trial.

Biggest surprise: The GC attacks were saved for the end. The big climbs of the Aubisque and the Tourmalet were early, possibly too early for an attack given the strength of Team Sky. Still, it was a surprise that nobody tried anything on the Col du Aspin to try and shed some Sky domestiques as there were so many remaining on the Aspin that there was no hope of dropping the Sky leadership on the final climb.

Biggest disappointment: Nibali couldn't make any of his attacks stick. Everybody else either didn't have the legs or had no desire to go. Nibali has obviously been one of the strongest guys in this race, but he has had no help in his attacks to stop the Sky train and today was no exception.

Other items of note: The breakaway today started as a ridiculous 38 riders. Expect the same tomorrow has Sky has no real reason to chase any breaks at this point in the race... There was no obvious on road fall out after the Frank Schleck positive test other than Schleck not being on the road... With Voeckler's win, he became the first non-Sprint double stage winner of the Tour this year. I suspect Bradley Wiggins will join him in the time trial on Saturday (especially with Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin no longer in the race)

What is coming tomorrow? Another short climbing stage like the one to La Toussuire. This one also has a summit finish and is the last chance to remake the GC before the time trial on Saturday.

Tomorrow's prediction: Don't ask me. Sky lets breakaways go everyday and predicting that correctly is like trying to win a roulette with one number.

Jul 17, 2012

Tour de France Second Rest day questions


1 Will Chris Froome attack his teammate?
This is the ultimate question of the Tour. Froome has spoken about wanting to be supported next year to win the Tour and how he could have possibly won this Tour if given a chance (and no puncture causing him to lose time on stage 1). Still, Froome is in second place and has looked like the strongest rider in the race in nearly every mountain stage so far. Also, given the dig he put in on the road to La Toussuire, it seems the only way overall leader (and Froome teammate) Bradley Wiggins can be dropped is either by Froome himself or by Vincenzo Nibali dropping Wiggins and Froome not helping him chase back.

2 Does Nibali have a chance?
Tomorrow's crazy mountain stage (seriously, this thing looks like it was lifted from the Giro instead of being a Tour stage) finishes on a descent. This is preferred for Nibali as if he attacks and gets a gap on the climb, he will never be seen again on the stage (whereas the GC seemed designed for Bradley Wiggins this yer, this stage seems designed specifically for Nibali and the injured and withdrawn Samuel Sanchez). That said, he needs to have two amazing days in a row and also not tow Froome with him if he manages to drop Wiggins. He will give it a go and possibly win one of the next two mountain stages, but it won't be enough with that crazy long time trial sitting there on Saturday.

3 Will BMC work for Evans or Van Garderen?
So Tejay van Garderen is 7th overall and has looked stronger than defending champion Cadel Evans ever since the beginning of the La Toussuire stage. Still, Evans is the defending champion and sits 4th overall. Which one they work for depends on who has the legs though a tactic of sending Van Garderen on the attack on the Tourmalet tomorrow to see what happens might be a good idea. It would eliminate the who are they working for question and it could cause Sky to have to do some work earlier than they would like.

4 How good is Peter Sagan?
Sagan has the Green Jersey locked up and nearly won a mountain stage the other day. Considering he is only 22, how good can he be? First off, I don't think he is a Grand Tour winner. His time trialing isn't good enough considering he would be more of a diesel climber type and those guys either need a great team (which he likely won't have given his classics needs for teammates) or need to have an elite time trial. Still, Sagan is the type of guy who could win all five monuments. With his sprint, he is a threat in any climby monument as he doesn't have to solo home like so many others. He is also a threat to the points jersey in any race he enters, especially since he can gather points in the mountains, something most sprinters can't do (remember that I said Mark Cavendish should have tried to go into a breakaway at the Giro to search for points but just couldn't do it). When his career is over, I think Sagan will have won all five monuments, at least one world championship, a few week long stage races and probably a top 10 in a Grand Tour as well.

5 Who in the top 10 will crack and suffer greatly?
The most likely to crack is Thibult Pinot. Pinot has already cracked twice in this race, but Thursday looks particularly menacing for him. The reason: he hasn't climbed well on consecutive days. He was average at best on stage 7 and then was terrible on stage 12 (but lucky that stage went to a huge breakaway after the early climbs). Stage 17, with a tough climbing day after the absurd day on Wednesday looks bad for Pinot.

Bonus question: What to make of the Frank Schleck positive?
For those who don't know, Frank Schleck tested positive for a diretic that, while not explicitly illegal, is certainly in a gray area of doping. He left the race and we'll see what happens next. Still, it is another blow in a nightmare of a season for his RSNT team. If not for Fabian Cancellara, there is a good chance this team would get relegated from the Pro Tour (if it even exists after this season). The whole thing has been a nightmare and it brings into question his previous results and the results of his brother Andy. Just not good for anyone involved, even though there is a good chance he will avoid suspension.

Jul 16, 2012

Tour de France Stage 14 - Another Breakaway Gets Away Before the Mountains Return


Today's stage: A possible sprint before the rest day, unless the breakaway were to get away.

Who won today's stage? Pierrick Fedrigo (FDJ) beat Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Sharp) in a two-up sprint after the two of them attacked from a six man breakaway that won the stage by over 10 minutes.

What matters in the GC race? No changes. Breakaway and a bunch finish behind it means no changes and a half day of relaxing and restful riding. Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Chris Froome (Team Sky) still lead the field.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – At the intermediate sprint, the Green Jersey was officially conceded to Peter Sagan (Liquigas). Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) and Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) were in the bunch and didn't bother to contest him for the intermediate sprint points.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No changes again. There were only a few points available so Fredrick Kessikoff (Astana) takes the spots into the rest day and then the two major Pyrenees stages that follow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here either. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ).
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – No changes here, that is for the mountains and Time Trials. RSNT still leads Team Sky by over 12 minutes.

Biggest surprise: No sprint today. This day seemed like a day tailor made for sprinters, especially with a rest day tomorrow. Still, there are only four big sprinters left in the race and none of their teams were working. Sagan's Liquigas and Mark Cavendish's Team Sky didn't work for obvious reasons. Lotto-Belisol briefly chased, but backed off when they had no help. And Orica-GreenEdge just didn't bother. I don't blame them since nobody ever helps them whenever they go to the front. Today, they put the onus on others to chase and the others didn't chase.

Biggest disappointment: The final sprint from the breakaway from was... underwhelming. Vande Velde is not a sprinter at all and it showed. Behind the sprint, the four other members of the breakaway were unable to organize and let the race win ride away from them. While Fedrigo was a deserving winner,, he won more by being the guy who played to his strengths tactically.

Other items of note: There was a whole host of abandons in the heat today. The biggest name was Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS)... There was an interesting tactic played by Saxo Bank to get Nikki Sorenson into the break. At the time, the break had five riders and Sorenson was attempting to bridge to it. He was likely not going to succeed until Saxo Bank put the team on the front to chase the break down. The message was clear: either let Sorenson bridge to the break or we will chase you down. The break let Sorenson catch on and then rode away with the stage victory.

What is coming tomorrow? Tomorrow is rest day in Pau, a favorite rest day stop for the Tour de France. After that comes the high mountains. Wednesday's parcours include the massive Col d'Aubisque and the near annual climb over the Col du Tourmalet before finishing on a descent (close enough to the line to matter for once in this Tour) from the Col de Peyresourde.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) 2. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) 3. Chris Froome (Team Sky)

Jul 15, 2012

Tour de France Stage 14 Review - Sanchez finaly gets his stage as tacks neutralize the race behind him


Today's stage: More mountains, but again too far from the finish to matter for the GC battle to really explode.

Who won today's stage? Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) has been desperate for a stage win and has been in numerous breakaways. Yesterday, he attacked in the final kilometers and looked like he was going to get away until the yellow jersey reeled him in to set up a sprint finish. Today, he got in the breakaway and attacked late to drop Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and take the stage. Sagan ended up second on this, a mountain stage.

What matters in the GC race? No changes, but that doesn't tell the story at all. At one point, Cadel Evans was over 2 minutes behind because of a puncture, but the puncture was caused by an idiot who threw tacks on the road near the top of the final climb. Evans and much of his BMC team were caught by it as were many other riders. Overall leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) neutralized the race because of the tacks and allowed Evans and his team to chase back on once the attacking Pierre Rolland (Europcar), who opportunistically attacked, was brought back by the teams of 3rd place Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and 5th place Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – For all intents and purposes, the Green Jersey was won today. Sagan won the intermediate sprint and then finished second on the stage giving him a lead of nearly 100 points over Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol). Former second place Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) trails Greipel by 30 points.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – There were no threats to the Polka Dot jersey in the breakaway so no changes at the top. Leader Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) did get 3 points on the early category 2 climb before the breakaway formed to extend his lead over Rolland to 14 points.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here either. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ).
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Despite the puncture drama and the breakaway winning by over 18 minutes because of it, there were no changes at the top of this classification. RSNT still leads Team Sky by over 12 minutes.

Biggest surprise: Saga got himself over the mountains with a chance to win the stage. Earlier in the Tour, his team director said he is a potential future Grand Tour winner. And everyone laughed. While that still seems unlikely, his performance today in the mountains portends better things in the mountains than most have thought he could do.

Biggest disappointment: Rolland attacked when he did. There were tacks in the road causing flats and Rolland attacked. Normally, that is fine, but with other contenders punctured because of nefarious happenings and not normal racing, etiquette is to not attack (like Wiggins and Team Sky).

Other items of note: Like Garmin with David Milar, Rabobank's Tour is saved with the win from Sanchez. Rabobank is down to four riders and they had two in the breakaway. Former 3rd GC option Steven Kruiswijk finished 10th after helping Sanchez early on. With a stage win, Rabobank has salvaged something out of this Tour were they were destroyed in the Stage 6 crash with Garmin and Vacansoleil. Now, only Vacansoleil needs a stage win...With the tacks, over 30 riders punctured between the top of the climb and the descent and Robert Kiserlovski (Astana) abandoned with a wrist injury after faling because of his puncture. Just ridiculous...

What is coming tomorrow? The annual stage to Pau, at the foot of the Pyrenees (it may not be every year, it just seems like it). Tomorrow is a possible sprint finish as the only climbs are two category 4's and a category 3.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Peter Sagan (Liquigas)

Jul 14, 2012

Tour de France Stage 13 Review - Greipel survives to sprint for victory...again


Today's stage: Another transition stage along the Mediterranean coast, this one expected to end in a sprint.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) got himself over the very difficult cat. 3 climb (it was short but the average gradient was over 10%) in range of the leaders, ws apced back to the group and then beat Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) in the sprint.

What matters in the GC race? No changes. All the top guys finished with the front group while many others were dropped. No changes as the Sky combo of Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome are still 1-2.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – After Matt Goss' (Orica-GreenEdge) penalty, he was dropped on the climb today. With Sagan finishing second on the stage, this competition is nearly over in favor of Sagan.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No changes here again with only one climb today. Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) still leads. Tomorrow has a cat. 2 and two cat. 1's in a possible breakaway stage. This means someone far down on the GC like Kessiakoff could go in the breakaway and get a load of points tomorrow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here either. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ).
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Considering the top six teams had the same time today, there was no change here. RSNT still leads Team Sky by 12 minutes.

Biggest surprise: Bradley Wiggins on the front of the lead out train. Wiggins is the yellow jersey. It's not often you see him leading out a teammate looking for a stage win and while Edvald Boasson Hagen didn't finish the win off, it was still a nice gesture from Wiggins to give his teammate an opportunity.

Biggest disappointment: Where were the other sprinters? This stage was supposed to be a sprint battle royale in between the mountains, but that climb that Greipel and Sagan got over shed everyone else. Sagan is the best climber among the sprinters so him getting over was expected. But Greipel is an awful climber. If he can get over, everyone else should have managed to be close enough to bridge back as well.

Other items of note: Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) was also paying back a teammate with some extra work. Van den Broeck sits 5th on GC, but he helped close down a short attack in the final kilometers for his teammate Greipel... Over the next few days, we are likely to see a few more abandonments along the way with more mountains. Tomorrow is a high mountain transitional stage again and Monday is mostly flat Wednesday and Thursday are both beastly stages in the Pyrenees.

What is coming tomorrow? The opposite of yesterday with a similar result. Breakaway will stay away after an early small climb and two late category 1 climbs that are too far to make a difference for the GC riders.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Jeremy Roy (FDJ) 2. Jerome Pineau (OPQS) 3. Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana)

Jul 13, 2012

Tour de France Stage 12 - Breakaway victory for Millar saves Garmin's Tour


Today's stage: The traditional transition stage leaving one of the big mountain ranges and headed to the other.

Who won today's stage? David Millar (Garmin-Sharp) won a two-up sprint against Jean-Christophe Peraud (AG2R La Mondiale) after the two of them and three others escaped early on the two big climbs to start the day.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing, nothing at all. Everyone finished in a bunch nearly 8 minutes behind the breakaway. No movement on this stage.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) beat Peter Sagan (Liquigas) in a sprint for 6th place to cut a few points off of Sagan's lead. Sagan still leads the competition though. UPDATE: Goss was relegated for cutting Sagan off making Sagan's lead huge in this competition. That is a big swing of points.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No changes here. The breakaway absorbed all the major points along the way and nobody really cared to go for the lesser points on the early category one climbs after emptying the tank yesterday. Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) retains the polka dots.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads Thiabult Pinot (FDJ) by 1'54”. To update from yesterday, Rein Taaramae is now 3rd in this category (he was still on the road when I posted yesterday). He is now 23'50” behind van Garderen.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT still leads by over 12 minutes. The only threat will be from Team Sky if their Time Trialers who slow pedaled in the first TT go all out in the final TT.

Biggest surprise: No surprises. This was destined to be a breakaway and it was. Those two early category one climbs made it so.

Biggest disappointment: There was no chase by the sprinters. On stages like this, it gets really dull really quick if the sprinters don't want to chase and after Peter Sagan was was brought back to the group by Matt Goss and Orica-GreenEdge, there was no need to chase. Nobody wanted to use the energy on a non-sure thing and tomorrow is a sure sprint stage.

Other items of note: Millar's win salvaged a miserable Tour for Garmin where nothing had gone right (owing mostly to that huge crash on stage six). Now Rabobank and Vacansoleil are the big losers of this Tour. Rabobank is now down to four riders after more abandonments overnight. As for Vacansoleil, they are down to five but expectations weren't nearly as high. Their young rider Wout Poels who was seriously injured in the stage 6 crash was transferred back to the Netherlands today and remains in stable condition. For these three crash-riddle teams, there are different goals upcoming. Garmin already got its huge win for the season at the Giro d'Italia, winning the overall with Ryder Hesjedal (who abandoned the Tour after the stage 6 crash). Vacansoleil head to the Vuelta bringing Thomas de Ghent, 3rd overall and the Queen Stage winner at the Giro. Meanwhile, Rabobank's season is in shambles. They were not up to par in the Ardennes classics including the home Amstel Gold and they put all their Grand Tour eggs in the Tour and they all cracked in the crash. Now they head to the Vuelta and need everything to go well to salvage their season. Gesink will be there and I expect Mollema will be there as well. Still, this season has been a mess for them.

What is coming tomorrow? Sprinter stage and they won't let the breakaway get away entirely with so few breakaway chances.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 2. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 3. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky)

Jul 12, 2012

Tour de France Stage 11 Review - And there will be a new champion


Today's stage: Big, nasty mountain stage with the only Alpine summit finish. For those who wish to attack leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky), this was the first obvious day to do it.

Who won today's stage? Pierre Rolland (Europcar) got in the early breakaway and then attacked up the final climb to La Toussuire to take his second career stage win (he won on Alpe d'Huez last year). If that sounds familiar, it is because the strategy was similar to how his teammate Thomas Voeckler won yesterday's stage.

What matters in the GC race? Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) cracked against the tempo of Team Sky while they were chasing Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) after his attack. The two Team Sky riders (Wiggins and Froome) now sit 1-2 overall with Nibali 3rd and Evans 4th. Further back, the rest of the top 10 was remade as Denis Menchov (Katusha) was nowhere to be found amongst the leaders (this is normal but he didn't manage to ninja himself into the final group this time) and Maxime Monfort (RSNT) was never seen after the early climbs either. Behind Evans, the new top 10 includes Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol), Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT), Tejay van Garderen (BMC), Janez Brajkovic (Astana), Rolland and Thibaut Pinot (FDJ).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Points? For sprinters? On this stage? Surely you jest. Same scores as yesterday. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) leads Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 232-205. Tomorrow brings as opportunity for more points if there is any climbing ability at all in those legs. There are two category 1 climbs, but then a long flat area before the intermediate sprint and a possible sprint finish as well.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) was in the breakaway today and took a boatload of points. In the process he regained the King of the Mountains jersey that he lost yesterday to Thomas Voeckler (Europcar). Voeckler's teammate Pierre Rolland is now second and Chris Anker Sorenson (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) is now third.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) exploded today along with Menchov and Monfort. That leaves just two men realistically contesting this category. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads, but his lead over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ) was shaved down to 1' 54” after van Garderen has to stay back and help pace the cracked Evans up the final climb.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT with its ensemble cast of Grand Tour experience and ex-GC contenders now has a strangle hold on this as a different three riders finish in the top 15 of a stage every day. For 2nd place Sky, this isn't really a goal and being 1-2 on the podium is much more importat.

Biggest surprise: Froome attacked, ever so briefly. On the final climb of the day, Nibali had attacked twice and the resulting chase had cracked Evans. Then, in a fit of enthusiasm, Froome attacked. Everybody followed, except Froome's team leader Wiggins. Then his team manager yelled at thim on the radio and Froome backed off.
Non-Froome category, it would be all the big names in the early breakaway. There were 31 riders in the breakaway and it read like a who's who of former GC contenders, fading stars and injured riders. This group at one point included Valverde, Scarponi, Basso, Leipheimer, and Gesink along with scores of others and the eventual stage winner Rolland.

Biggest disappointment: Froome didn't keep the hammer down and make this race, even one between two teammates. It is obvious now that Froome is better in the mountains (just as he was at the Vuelta last year when he went from domestique to 2nd overall, beating Wiggins) and Wiggins is better in the time trial. Still, I wish Froome has continued to attack. It would have taken some of the air of inevitability out of the race.
Non-Froome category, nobody cracked the Team Sky train. This was as weak as they have looked all race, but nobody cracked Sky and now they will get to ride all the way to the Pyrenees mostly unencumbered by attacks that will bother them.

Other items of note: Prologue and first week yellow jersey wearer Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) abandoned the race today to go home and be with his pregnant wife who is expecting their second child this month... Also abandoning today were Mark Renshaw (Rabobank), Bauke Mollema (Rabobank) and Lieuwe Westra (Vacansoleil), all of whom were involved in that crazy crash on stage 6...Seven riders missed the time cut today and are out of the race. Most notable is Italian sprinter Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre).

What is coming tomorrow? Some early high mountains followed by a long flat drag and a late category 3 before a possible sprint, if the sprinters are there and no breakaway is gone.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) 2. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 3. JJ Haedo (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff)

Jul 11, 2012

Tour de France Stage 10 - Voeckler claims Spots and the Stage


Today’s Stage: The first foray into the high mountains, but a likely breakaway stage

Who won today’s stage? Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) got himself in the early breakaway and then attacked constantly up the Grand Colombier, dropping most of the breakaway that had a whopping 25 riders in it to start. Then Voeckler attacked in the final kilometer, winning a very slow sprint to the line from a reduced group that included Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank), Dries Deveryns (OPQS) and Jens Voigt (RSNT).

What matters in the GC race? Jurgen van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) attacked on the final descent in an attempt to help his standing but made no real gains. His attack did spring RSNT to the front to protect the interests of Haimar Zubeldia and Maxime Monfort, giving Bradley Wiggins and his Team Sky teammates a rest after they used a ton of energy to chase down an attacking Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Both Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) got themselves in the large breakaway and both got to the sprint point just before the Grand Colombier. Goss won the sprint and Sagan was 3rd leaving Sagan’s lead at 232-205.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Voeckler won the Grand Colombier climb with its huge 25 point cache at the top and also takes the lead in the King of the Mountains in addition to his stage win. He now leads previous leader Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) and breakmate Scarponi by seven points.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) finished with the GC group while leader Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) finished just behind. This lowered the gap between them to 25 seconds with van Garderen still leading.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT extended its lead over Team Sky to 4’ 58”. More importantly, RSNT is one of the two teams that didn’t bring those silly looking yellow helmets that Team Sky was forced to wear the whole first week. Therefore, they don’t have to look stupid like Sky did.

Biggest surprise: The attacks flew from the GC guys today. The summit of the Grand Colombier was a long way from the finish. That didn’t stop Van den Broeck from attacking on its upper slopes or Nibali from attacking on the descent. While both were reeled in, Van den Broeck attacked again later and made up 30 second on all of his GC rivals.

Biggest disappointment: RSNT did some of the chasing for Team Sky. In an effort to protect Monfort and Zubeldia, RSNT did a good chunk of the chase on the final run-in to the finish with Frank Schleck and Chris Horner on the front. This also gave Team Sky’s tired pacesetters a break, most likely much to the chagrin of Cadel Evans led BMC and Vincenzo Nibali lead Liquigas.

Other items of note: Tony Martin (OPQS) finally abandoned the race after all of his crashes and horrible luck through the early part of the tour. Martin will heal and rest before the Olympics…  In the annual rest day scandal, Remy di Gregorio (Cofidis) was arrested yesterday and ejected from the race. First thought, as is usual in this sport, is doping, but nobody knows for sure and the rumor going around is that de Gregorio was involved in some sort of cocaine ring.

What is coming tomorrow? Mountain pain. This is where the Tour really ratchets up the intensity. Two beyond category climbs (why on Earth is the sprint point after a HC climb though I guess it had to be somewhere) followed by a Cat. 2 and then a cat. 1 finish atop La Toussuire, famous for the Floyd Landis bonk in 2006.

Tomorrow’s prediction: 1. Jurgen van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) 2. Cadel Evans (BMC) 3. Chris Froome (Team Sky)

Jul 10, 2012

Tour de France Rest Day Thoughts


1 Is the race already over?
So dominant were Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome of Team Sky both at Les Planche des Filles and at the first Individual Time Trial at Besancon that some are ready to anoint Wiggins the Tour champion. While I won't go that far without having seen a high mountain stage yet in this year's Tour, I think the chances are greater than 80% that Wiggins wins at this point because there is an even longer time trial waiting after the mountains. Given that Cadel Evans (BMC) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) need to take at least three minutes and probably four from their current positions to have a chance in the final time trial. That is unlikely even with all the mountain stages. The most likely way for Wiggins to not win at this point is for him to crack badly. If he does, the most likely winner seems to be Froome, who looks to be in the best climbing form of everyone.

2 So this is basically a Lance Armstrong tour all over again isn't it?
For those who don't know, Lance Armstrong (whether he is guilty of doping or not) used to win or get close to the yellow jersey in the prologue time trial, rely on his train of super domestiques that all were capable of top 10 or even top 5 placements if they were on other teams to pace him up the mountains, then attack on the final climb against a tired peloton to gap whoever might be left. This looks really familiar with the only major difference that Froome is better than any of Armstrong's lieutenants (with the possible exception of Levi Leipheimer). Of course given the dominance of Team Sky, much of the internet has been asking if this is like Lance's US Postal Blue Train in other ways as well...

3 … Can this possibly be clean riding by Sky? This is cycling after all.
Is it clean? I think so, but I am not overly confident. The circumstantial evidence seems bad, but nobody for Sky has failed a test in a time where the testing has been beefed up to new levels that weren't there when Lance's doped up team was pacing him up the mountains (no matter the opinion of Lance himself, his team included serial dopers Heras, Landis and Hamilton along with Leipheimer, VandeVelde and Hincapie who are all in the same did he or didn't he limbo that Lance is in from that era). As for that circumstantial evidence, Wiggins suddenly jumped quite a few level after a terrible first year with Team Sky. Yes, he had a 4th place in the Tour with Garmin in 2009, but his 2010 results reverted to his previous level and there are plenty of cases in cycling history where everything came together in one huge effort that was career defining in a Grand Tour (see Peter Velits podium in 2010 Vuelta a Espana, Bobby Julich finishing 3rd in the 1998 Tour de France and even JJ Cobo's Vuelta win last season in addition to the legion of Italians who have never done a thing outside of the Giro d'Italia no matter how much they talked about and targeted other races). Then 2011 came and Wiggins won the pre-Tour warm up Dauphine (he did so again this season) before crashing out of the Tour and finishing 3rd while not having his best form in the Vuelta. Still, nothing suggested he was about to destroy the field. On the other hand, his teammate Froome came from literally nowhere to finish second in the Vuelta and the only guy to beat them was racing for the spiritual successor team of one of the largest doping rings in cycling history (Geox was run by people who were involved with Saunier-Duval, Ricco's team in the 2008 Tour de Farce, and before that Liberty Seguros, who had half the team thrown out on the eve of the 2005 Tour for doping violations). Then in this Tour, Wiggins and Froome seems to be peaking for all the big days. If nothing else it looks suspicious, especially in this sport. I want to believe they're clean and I think they are, but it is at least a bit troubling.

4 So what is everyone else to do?
For Evans and Nibali, a strategic alliance needs to be made. Obviously, their best chance is on descents. They need to attack together and work together. If one of them attacks, the other needs to not chase, forcing Team Sky to chase. As soon as Team Sky bridges back, the other needs to attack. Since nobody else who is close really has attack capability, these two have to do it themselves and they have to start quickly. If done right, at least they can bring some suspense to the time trial. If not, they will earn the respect of cycling fans everywhere for going down swinging instead of meekly. And in Nibali's case, we have seen him in a similar situation. He attacked on downhills early and often against Contador in the 2011 Giro d'Italia, trying to win it on the road. It cost him second to Michele Scarponi ultimately, but fans respected his efforts.

5 Is this a bad thing for the sport?
No, as long as Team Sky is racing clean. The Tour has never been the most exciting race in the world (the Team Sky train through mountains and win in time trials with the elite time trialer has been the preferred mode of victory for Indurain, Armstrong and Ullrich – 13 or the last 20 years). The last few years have been total aberrations in recent Tour history owing partially to Contador either being excluded or emptying the tank in the hardest climbing race ever (2011 Giro) and a lack of time trial kilometers (the last five years have seen the five fewest numbers of time trial kilometers since the time trial was introduced to the Tour). Many fans like dominance and will come around on Wiggins as long as he is clean. And those that love suspenseful racing can go back to watching the Giro and Vuelta like they should have been all along.

Jul 9, 2012

Tour de France Stage 9 - Wiggins wins the stage and possibly the whole race


Today's stage: Time trial. Long enough to create big time gaps. More torment for pure climbers, most of who got smoked in the stage 6 supercrash.

Who won today's stage? Overall leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) won the stage beating teammate Chris Froome by 32 seconds. Prologue TT winner Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) was third.

What matters in the GC race? Wiggins now has a huge lead overall for this stage of the race. He leads defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) by 1' 53”, his teammate Froome by 2' 07” and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) by 2' 23”. Everybody else is over 3 minutes behind and likely has no chance at all of catching Wiggins.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – None of the top guys in this category are time trial specialists, so none scored any points today. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) still leads and will for quite some time as this category lies relatively dormant for awhile with high mountains coming.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No changes with a time trial. Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) still leads.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) rode an excellent time trial finishing 4th overall and retaking the white jersey from Rein Taaramae (Cofidis). Van Garderen leads Taaramae by 42' and Tony Gallopin (RSNT) by 45'.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT is the leader for a second straight day leading Team Sky by 1' 25”.

Biggest surprise: Froome. While he beat Wiggins in the time trial at the Vuelta last year, that was the Vuelta and Tony Martin won that stage. Today, Froome beat everyone except his teammate Wiggins in a huge shock. The biggest shock there would be that Froome also beat Cancellara.

Biggest disappointment: Wiggins has such a huge lead. Considering his train to see him through the mountains, it will be difficult to do anything to stop this from becoming a Wiggins procession to Paris to collect the final yellow jersey. It is US Postal and Lance Armstrong suck the life out of the race style riding all over again.

Other items of note: Poor Tony Martin (OPQS). The World Champion has had an awful race. He punctured in the prologue, broke his hand in a crash on stage 1 and then punctured again today. Even with the puncture and the broken hand, Martin still finished 12th today... Other than Wiggins and Froome, Team Sky slow pedaled through the time trial, conserving energy to help Wiggins later. Michael Rogers is a former World Champion in the time trial and finished 27th. Edvald Boasson Hagen is the Norwegian time trial champion. He finished 92nd. Richie Porte is among the top 10 time trialers in the world normally. He finished 95th.

What is coming tomorrow? Rest day followed by high mountains, kind of. The next stage includes the first beyond category climb: Grand du Colombier, but it is in the middle of the stage and the stage finishes much like yesterday with a descent and flat run in.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) 2. Jeremy Roy (FDJ) 3. Chris Horner (RSNT)

Jul 8, 2012

Tour de France Stage 8 - Breakaway success, finally


Today's stage: A true medium mountain stage. Seven climbs (only the final climb a category 1) and not a summit finish meant possible breakaway.

Who won today's stage? 22-year old Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) was the only breakaway survivor holding off the favorites and breakaway mate Tony Gallopin (RSNT) by 26 seconds to take his first career stage win.

What matters in the GC race? The top three remain unchanged. It's Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) in the yellow jersey followed by Cadel Evans (BMC) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). Former 4th place Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) didn't recover well after emptying the tank yesterday and dropped time today. He now trails by over 2 minutes. Other than the leaders, Denis Menchov (Katusha) and Haimar Zubledia (RSNT) are the only ones who remain within a minute of the lead.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – With the intermediate sprint points after five climbs with two more to go, the sprinters were shed early especially with a lot of attacks being unleashed by stage hunters all day long.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Some of the stage hunters today were not really stage hunters. They were looking for spots. The result was a new leader, Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana), who leads former lead Chris Froome (Team Sky) by a point. This category will most likely go to a fringe GC contender in the end, someone finishing in the bottom of the top 10 who is there on all the climbs but not able take the time needed to get back into the race.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – While Taaramae lost time GC and here, he still leads this competition. Still, it is by only 46 seconds over Gallopin and 1' 14” over stage-winner Pinot.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – And finally Sky is rid of the yellow helmets. Those ugly, horrifying things pass on to RSNT tomorrow as that team now leads by nearly three minutes after the 3rd Sky rider finished nearly five minutes behind on today's stage.

Biggest surprise: Only one breakaway rider was able to survive. This day looked like a breakaway festival and the peloton agreed with 20 riders getting into the initial breakaway. Still, only one man survived to beat the GC favorites group to the finish with one other finishing in the favorites group.

Biggest disappointment: No time gaps. If the breakaway didn't survive, it was because of possible attacks from the GC men. That didn't really happen as the GC men just grinded down everyone else until there was a small, select group remaining.

Other items of note: There was another abandonment because of a crash and it was a big one. Defending Olympic champion and Euskatel leader Samuel Sanchez was forced to abandon and, more important than his Tour de France campaign, his ability to ride in the Olympics and defend his title is in serious doubt... In the team abandonment sections, Euskatel and Garmin-Sharp have been decimated. Euskatel is down to five riders and Garmin six with neither of them having any threat to the top 40 in the race. The highest placed Garmin rider is Dan Martin in 69th place while the highest placed Euskatel rider is Jorge Azanza in 78th place... In the other race going, Jakob Fuglsang (RSNT) finished off his win in the Tour of Austria today. It is a big win for Fuglsang, a rider soon to be leaving RSNT for some other team in the offseason.

What is coming tomorrow? Time trial. The day when Wiggins and Evans assert their authority even more so, at least that is the pre-race script.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) 2. Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) 3. Cadel Evans (BMC)

Jul 7, 2012

Tour de France Stage 7 - Team Sky blows the race up in the mountains


Today's stage: The first mountain of the race atop a very difficult category 1 climb.

Who won today's stage? Chris Froome (Team Sky) helped his teammate Bradley Wiggins shed most of his rivals and then had enough left in the tank to win the stage himself by two seconds over Cadel Evans (BMC) and Wiggins.

What matters in the GC race? As expected, we have a new GC leader as the stage finale did not suit the talents of former leader Fabian Cancellara (RSNT). That leader is Wiggins, who was 3rd on the stage and inherits the yellow jersey. In second is Evans, 10 seconds behind and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) is 3rd, 16 seconds behind. Considering that Wiggins and Evans were the pre-race favorites and Nibali was the top darkhorse, this is, in all likelihood a 3 man race from here.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) scored points in the intermediate sprint after a botched day by Matt Goss and his Orica-GreenEdge team. The Sagan lead is 32 points over Goss with neither likely to score any more soon with more mountains and a time trial over the next few days
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With the cache of points available at the summit, the stage winner was destined to take the jersey, therefore stage winner Froome is the current leader.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) was in the front group at the end with Froome, Evans, Wiggins and Nibali. He moved up to 4th overall and leads the white jersey competition by 2' 37” over Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), who was dropped early.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Sky gets to keep the ugly yellow helmets as the leaders here. With Froome and Wiggins placing so high, this was easy for Sky. They now lead RSNT by 1' 37”.

Biggest surprise: Froome's attack to win the stage though maybe it shouldn't be so surprising. At this point I wonder if Sky management didn't have Froome lose time intentionally early on to avoid another Vuelta situation. Today looked a lot like the Vuelta last year when Wiggins was the protected rider and Froome was the better rider. The difference is that Froome is over a minute behind whereas last year he beat Wiggins and finished second overall. Still, it was a surprise to see the pacemaker at the end have the energy to kick and win the stage that way.

Biggest disappointment: Team Sky dominated. This looked like Lance Armstrong's US Postal train all over again and if this continues Bradley Wiggins will likely win the race overall no matter what anyone else does. Additionally, no other team had anyone with their leaders on the climb making it even easier for Team Sky.

Other items of note: The abandonment list after yesterday's crash lengthened considerably. Most notable among the abondments was Garmin-Sharp leader and Giro'dItalia champion Ryder Hesjedal after finishing 13 minutes down yesterday... The three Rabobank GC hopes all lost more time today. Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink and Steven Kruiswijk will all be stage hunters now.

What is coming tomorrow? More mountains, kind of. Tomorrow brings seven climbs as the race heads into Switzerland and they get progressively harder as the day goes on starting with a category 4, then a category 3, four category 2's and a category 1 followed by a descent finish. Looks like a day for a breakaway.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS) 2. Sandy Casar (FDJ) 3. Alexander Vinokourov (Astana)

Jul 6, 2012

Tour de France Stage 6 - A crash marred procession of doom


Today's stage: A seemingly innocent looking procession to a bunch sprint finish (it was a bunch sprint, it wasn't an innocent procession).

Who won today's stage? Peter Sagan (Liquigas) came around Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) at the end to take the bunch sprint and his 3rd stage win of the race. Notably missing from the sprint was Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) who was caught behind the massive crash that occurred 25-30 km from the end of the stage.

What matters in the GC race? The current leaders didn't change much. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) still leads the race by 7 seconds over Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS). Below all of that though, the GC field was decimated as many were caught in the crash. The first chase group lost around two minutes today That group included Bauke Mollema (Rabobank), Jani Brajkovic (Astana), Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Frank Schleck (RSNT) and Pierre Rolland (Europcar). Another 1-2 minutes later, Rabobank teammates Robert Gesink and Steven Kruiswijk came home. Considering that, Rabobank's hopes for this race and probably the season are shot now. Still, the biggest losers on the day were Garmin-Sharp. GC leader and Giro d'Italia winner Ryder Hesjedal lost over 13 minutes, but then again so did the entire team other than Dave Zabriskie (he was in the breakaway). The Garmin roster that was looking for GC success is not searching for that any longer. Hesjedal is still the team leader on GC in 108th place, 13' 38” behind.

As for those who managed to stay upright after the massive pile up, they are still in good GC shape, all six of them (this may not be an exaggeration). Wiggins is still 2nd overall. Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) is still in the top 10. Former Giro and double Vuelta winner Denis Menchov (Katusha) is also in the top 10 as is 2010 Vuelta and twice Giro podium finisher Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). Further down among GC contenders, Samuel Sanchez (Euskatel), Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) and Levi Leipheimer (OPQS) remain within a minute of the lead. With all of this, the overall standings will be turned upside down again tomorrow. There are mountains and a summit finish tomorrow.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Sagan extended his lead by taking the stage victory. He now leads Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) by 31 points and Greipel by 42 points. Cavendish is much further back and, in all likelihood, out of the green jersey chase. Let the Olympic prep begin.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With only one category 4 climb today, Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) retained the jersey. Tomorrow brings the likely end of his run as the stage winner is likely to overtake Morkov unless he can get himself in the break again.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Former second place Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) was caught behind the crash and finished with the Schleck group over 2 minutes down. Sagan has improved to second though he will likely drop tomorrow. In third is Rein Taaramae (Cofidis). Taaramae is a real threat having held the white jersey for much of last year's tour having won a mountain stage at the Vuelta last year as well.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The bunch sprint finish meant no changes at the top. Team Sky is still the leader followed by RSNT 4 seconds behind. The big news here is the fall of Garmin-Sharp. The defending champion in this classification lost a ton of time today even with Zabriskie in the breakaway and now sits last, over 35 minutes behind.

Biggest surprise: Sagan's sprint win. While Sagan had won the uphill finishes so far, he had not shown the same top end speed as the other sprinters. This left him with a ton of green jersey points, but nothing to show on the flat lands. Today should have been more of the same, but Cavendish wasn't around to contest the sprint and Greipel wasn't quite full strength after crashing twice during the stage. Still, beating a slightly weakened Greipel and full strength Goss with the Lotto leadout train also in play is a shock.

Biggest disappointment: The giant crash and the end of Garmin-Sharp and Rabobank, at least as far as GC goes. For Rabobank, if riders are healthy after hitting the tarmac (and that's a big question considering their team director said it's like a MASH unit on the team bus right now), expect an aggressive bunch searching for stage wins and animating the race in the mountains trying to get back into the race. On GC, the three Rabobank GC hopes all still have top 10 aspirations even if winning or the podium is unlikely at best.

For Garmin, the questions are numerous. The first is if there are any medical supplies left since the entire team except for Zabriskie has been on the tarmac at least once (their team says the bus is like a hospital). Among the crash victims, Tom Danielson abandoned after hitting the ground hard (he was already riding injured after an earlier crash). Tyler Farrar hit the deck again. That is five times in seven days of racing. Johan van Summeren looked like he had been in a bar fight when he finished. And everybody else on the team roster was scraped up from the crash.Second is the refocus the goal. Dan Martin wanted to win the King of the Mountains and that seems a viable possibility if he's healthy enough to climb since the GC leaders won't worry about marking him if he is up the road (similar to Jelle Vanendert last year who was six minutes down and attacked for high mountain points and stage wins). Also, Hesjedal will want to get a stage win if nothing else as he still does not have one in his tour career. Remember that last year Hesjedal was in the breakaway a couple of times on medium mountain stages after losing time and was leading the race up Alpe d'Huez early on the climb.

Other items of note: There were four abandonments from the crash today. There was Danielson of course, but also Wout Poels (Vacansoleil), Davide Vigano (Lampre) and Mikel Astarloza (Euskatel). I suspect there will be more tomorrow in the form of either non-starters after the crash or those who can't hack the climbing because of their injuries.

What is coming tomorrow? The mountains, kind of. I say kind of because the stage is two category 3 climbs and then a category 1 summit finish. It is not the continuous mountain insanity that is coming later

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Jerome Coppel (Saur-Sojasun) 2. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) 3. Chris Horner (RSNT)

Jul 5, 2012

Tour de France Stage 5 - Greipel repeats win from yesterday


Today's stage: A long procession to a bunch sprint. Same as yesterday. Not even with a categorized climb along the way.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) won his second sprint in a row, catching the breakaway and overtaking Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) in the final 100 meters to take the stage.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing, again. 3 km rule after a crash, again. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) still leads overall. This is unlikely to change tomorrow either as there is another sprint stage.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – The bonus Peter Sagan (Liquigas) got yesterday when Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) crashed is gone. Sagan was caught in Tyler Farrar's (Garmin-Sharp) 4th crash of the race. He still leads the green jersey competition, but Goss, Greipel and Cavendish are a whole lot closer now.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With no climbs today, Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) retained the jersey. He will retain the jersey as long as he finishes tomorrow as well with onlt one category 4 climb on the route.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group. Barring a crash this won't change until stage 7 with a mountain top finish.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The 3 km rule being applied also means there was no change here, not that it was likely with a bunch sprint finish.

Biggest surprise: The breakaway nearly held on. There was a four-man breakaway seemed doomed all day long. For the whole race, they never got a huge lead. Still, the peloton let them hang on the vine and nearly paid for it as the break was in tact with under 1 km to go and got to the final 100 meters before being caught.

Biggest disappointment: Sagan was collected in the crash. The finish was slightly uphill today which suits Sagan and would possibly limit some of the top end speed that can neutralize him in a bunch sprint. That was all for naught for Sagan after being collected in the Farrar crash.

Other items of note: Argos-Shimano sprinter Marcel Kittel was forced to abandon the race today. He was unable to recover from his various stomach ailments that have limited him all tour long. For his team, it was second guessed when John Degenkolb was left at home and it looks worse now even though Tom Veelers had done decently in the sprints thus far... Team Sky interestingly came to the front and gave Cavendish a bit of help today for the first time all race. I wonder if that will be the case tomorrow with a mountain stage on Saturday.

What is coming tomorrow? One last sprint day before the mountains. There is only one categorized climb tomorrow. Like today, I feel sorry for whoever ends up on breakaway duty.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 3. Mark Renshaw (Rabobank)

Jul 4, 2012

Tour de France Stage 4 - Greipel sprints to victory as Cav crashed behind him


Today's stage: A long procession to a bunch sprint.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) used a perfect lead out from his team to defeat a reduced field after a crash just inside 3km to go. Among those not involved because of the crash were stage favorite Mark Cavendish (Team Sky).

What matters in the GC race? The 3 km rule took effect today. It states that if involved in a crash on a non-summit finish with 3km or less to go then everybody in the group gets the same time. That means we still have a top 3 of Fabian Cancellara (RSNT), Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) got a huge bonus on his points quest with Cavendish being involved in the crash. Sagan finished fifth on the stage and now leads Matthew Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) by 55 points, Greipel by 60 and Cavendish by 61.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) finally took a day off from breakaway duty with not enough points available to threaten him in this competition.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group. Barring a crash this won't change until stage 7 with a mountain top finish.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The 3 km rule being applied also means there was no change here, not that it was likely with a bunch sprint finish.

Biggest surprise: Nothing. Nothing at all. This was a by the books sprint stage. Early breakaway goes and takes a big lead. Big lead is eroded by the peloton when it decides it wants to chase. Breakaway is caught. Crash near the end takes a few contenders out. Sprint. With the exception of the crash that often happens, this is the patter for every bunch sprint in cycling.

Biggest disappointment: Cavendish was collected in the crash. After using Matt Goss' Orica-GreenEdge train as his own personal lead out for the intermediate sprint, Cavendish looked like the strongest man for the sprint for sure, but the crash deprived us of the battle.

Other items of note: Martin Tjallingi (Rabobank) was forced to abandon after his injuries from yesterday's crash. He somehow managed to finish the stage with a broken pelvis. In addition Tom Danielson (Garmin-Sharp) lost a lot of time yesterday meaning he won't be replicating his top 10 from a year ago, especially carrying a major shoulder injury... Over at the Tour of Austria, Jakob Fuglsang (RSNT) took the stage win and the race lead today.

What is coming tomorrow? More sprinting. There isn't even a categoriezed climb at all on the route tomorrow.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge)

Jul 3, 2012

Tour de France Stage 3 - Another Saganesque Victory


Today's stage: A one-day classic disguised as part of a stage race.

Who won today's stage? Peter Sagan (Liquigas) won his second stage in three days. While he isn't automatic in a sprint like he was in California or Switzerland, these hilly stages are easy marks for him right now.

What matters in the GC race? Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) finished with the main group and retained the yellow jersey, but not without a few tense moments as 3rd place Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS) attacked and nearly stole the stage and the jersey on the final climb. Among the overall threats, Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) is still the top man and everyone else still has the same time as before.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Sagan extended his lead in the Green jersey competition with his stage win. His main competition is defending champion Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) who freelanced his way to top points in the intermediate sprint remaining in range of catching Sagan.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) got himself in the break for the 3rd day day in a row. This allowed him extend his lead. He is sure to retain the jersey tomorrow as there aren't enough points available for anyone to pass him. Maybe he will take a mch needed rest and avoid the breakaway tomorrow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – With a large group finishing together, there was no change here. Team Sky retains the lead and they will continue to wear the new yellow helmets that go along with leadership in this competition. In other words, ditto yesterday. This doesn't figure to change until the mountains.

Biggest surprise: Morkov in the break again. He is likely to pay dearly later, but his team's new second sponsor Tinkoff has to be pleased with all of the screen time they have gotten thus far. Still, when was the last time someone was in the break three days in a row? Not even anyone from the FDJ breakaway squad from last season managed that.

Biggest disappointment: Nobody really challenged Sagan. It was too easy considering Sagan had a chance to celebrate with a running man dance on the bike as he won. At least Chavanel tried with his big attack. Everyone else either had nothing for Sagan or didn't bother trying as they saved energy for GC assaults later.

Other items of note: Today was a festival of crashes. Early on Astana leader Jani Brajkovic crashed (he is fine and still sits 13th overall). Later, Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) and Kanstantin Siutsou (Team Sky) collided and caused a decent sized pile up. Siutsou was forced to abandon because of his injuries. Finally, there was a large pile up that included Farrar again, JJ Rojas (Movistar), Johnny Hoogerland (Vacansoleil), Simon Gerrans (Orica-GreenEdge) and many others. As a result of the crashes, many were stuck behind the main field where the Movistar team drove forward and dropped everyone. Notable among those that lost time some amount of time: Christian Vandevelde (Garmin-Sharp), Tom Danielson (Garmin-Sharp) and Thomas Voeckler (Europcar). Also of note, Rojas was forced to abandon.

What is coming tomorrow? Sprinters awaken again. Tomorrow is pancake flat for the final run in and has no climbs above category 4 at all. This means sprinters all the way.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Kenny Van Hummel (Vaconsoleil)