Tour de France Second Rest day questions

1 Will Chris Froome attack his teammate?

This is the ultimate question of the Tour. Froome has spoken about wanting to be supported next year to win the Tour and how he could have possibly won this Tour if given a chance (and no puncture causing him to lose time on stage 1). Still, Froome is in second place and has looked like the strongest rider in the race in nearly every mountain stage so far. Also, given the dig he put in on the road to La Toussuire, it seems the only way overall leader (and Froome teammate) Bradley Wiggins can be dropped is either by Froome himself or by Vincenzo Nibali dropping Wiggins and Froome not helping him chase back.

2 Does Nibali have a chance?

Tomorrow's crazy mountain stage (seriously, this thing looks like it was lifted from the Giro instead of being a Tour stage) finishes on a descent. This is preferred for Nibali as if he attacks and gets a gap on the climb, he will never be seen again on the stage (whereas the GC seemed designed for Bradley Wiggins this yer, this stage seems designed specifically for Nibali and the injured and withdrawn Samuel Sanchez). That said, he needs to have two amazing days in a row and also not tow Froome with him if he manages to drop Wiggins. He will give it a go and possibly win one of the next two mountain stages, but it won't be enough with that crazy long time trial sitting there on Saturday.

3 Will BMC work for Evans or Van Garderen?

So Tejay van Garderen is 7^th overall and has looked stronger than defending champion Cadel Evans ever since the beginning of the La Toussuire stage. Still, Evans is the defending champion and sits 4^th overall. Which one they work for depends on who has the legs though a tactic of sending Van Garderen on the attack on the Tourmalet tomorrow to see what happens might be a good idea. It would eliminate the who are they working for question and it could cause Sky to have to do some work earlier than they would like.

4 How good is Peter Sagan?

Sagan has the Green Jersey locked up and nearly won a mountain stage the other day. Considering he is only 22, how good can he be? First off, I don't think he is a Grand Tour winner. His time trialing isn't good enough considering he would be more of a diesel climber type and those guys either need a great team (which he likely won't have given his classics needs for teammates) or need to have an elite time trial. Still, Sagan is the type of guy who could win all five monuments. With his sprint, he is a threat in any climby monument as he doesn't have to solo home like so many others. He is also a threat to the points jersey in any race he enters, especially since he can gather points in the mountains, something most sprinters can't do (remember that I said Mark Cavendish should have tried to go into a breakaway at the Giro to search for points but just couldn't do it). When his career is over, I think Sagan will have won all five monuments, at least one world championship, a few week long stage races and probably a top 10 in a Grand Tour as well.

5 Who in the top 10 will crack and suffer greatly?

The most likely to crack is Thibult Pinot. Pinot has already cracked twice in this race, but Thursday looks particularly menacing for him. The reason: he hasn't climbed well on consecutive days. He was average at best on stage 7 and then was terrible on stage 12 (but lucky that stage went to a huge breakaway after the early climbs). Stage 17, with a tough climbing day after the absurd day on Wednesday looks bad for Pinot.

Bonus question: What to make of the Frank Schleck positive?

For those who don't know, Frank Schleck tested positive for a diretic that, while not explicitly illegal, is certainly in a gray area of doping. He left the race and we'll see what happens next. Still, it is another blow in a nightmare of a season for his RSNT team. If not for Fabian Cancellara, there is a good chance this team would get relegated from the Pro Tour (if it even exists after this season). The whole thing has been a nightmare and it brings into question his previous results and the results of his brother Andy. Just not good for anyone involved, even though there is a good chance he will avoid suspension.

Tour de France Rest Day Thoughts

1 Is the race already over?

So dominant were Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome of Team Sky both at Les Planche des Filles and at the first Individual Time Trial at Besancon that some are ready to anoint Wiggins the Tour champion. While I won't go that far without having seen a high mountain stage yet in this year's Tour, I think the chances are greater than 80% that Wiggins wins at this point because there is an even longer time trial waiting after the mountains. Given that Cadel Evans (BMC) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) need to take at least three minutes and probably four from their current positions to have a chance in the final time trial. That is unlikely even with all the mountain stages. The most likely way for Wiggins to not win at this point is for him to crack badly. If he does, the most likely winner seems to be Froome, who looks to be in the best climbing form of everyone.

2 So this is basically a Lance Armstrong tour all over again isn't it?

For those who don't know, Lance Armstrong (whether he is guilty of doping or not) used to win or get close to the yellow jersey in the prologue time trial, rely on his train of super domestiques that all were capable of top 10 or even top 5 placements if they were on other teams to pace him up the mountains, then attack on the final climb against a tired peloton to gap whoever might be left. This looks really familiar with the only major difference that Froome is better than any of Armstrong's lieutenants (with the possible exception of Levi Leipheimer). Of course given the dominance of Team Sky, much of the internet has been asking if this is like Lance's US Postal Blue Train in other ways as well...

3 … Can this possibly be clean riding by Sky? This is cycling after all.

Is it clean? I think so, but I am not overly confident. The circumstantial evidence seems bad, but nobody for Sky has failed a test in a time where the testing has been beefed up to new levels that weren't there when Lance's doped up team was pacing him up the mountains (no matter the opinion of Lance himself, his team included serial dopers Heras, Landis and Hamilton along with Leipheimer, VandeVelde and Hincapie who are all in the same did he or didn't he limbo that Lance is in from that era). As for that circumstantial evidence, Wiggins suddenly jumped quite a few level after a terrible first year with Team Sky. Yes, he had a 4^th place in the Tour with Garmin in 2009, but his 2010 results reverted to his previous level and there are plenty of cases in cycling history where everything came together in one huge effort that was career defining in a Grand Tour (see Peter Velits podium in 2010 Vuelta a Espana, Bobby Julich finishing 3^rd in the 1998 Tour de France and even JJ Cobo's Vuelta win last season in addition to the legion of Italians who have never done a thing outside of the Giro d'Italia no matter how much they talked about and targeted other races). Then 2011 came and Wiggins won the pre-Tour warm up Dauphine (he did so again this season) before crashing out of the Tour and finishing 3^rd while not having his best form in the Vuelta. Still, nothing suggested he was about to destroy the field. On the other hand, his teammate Froome came from literally nowhere to finish second in the Vuelta and the only guy to beat them was racing for the spiritual successor team of one of the largest doping rings in cycling history (Geox was run by people who were involved with Saunier-Duval, Ricco's team in the 2008 Tour de Farce, and before that Liberty Seguros, who had half the team thrown out on the eve of the 2005 Tour for doping violations). Then in this Tour, Wiggins and Froome seems to be peaking for all the big days. If nothing else it looks suspicious, especially in this sport. I want to believe they're clean and I think they are, but it is at least a bit troubling.

4 So what is everyone else to do?

For Evans and Nibali, a strategic alliance needs to be made. Obviously, their best chance is on descents. They need to attack together and work together. If one of them attacks, the other needs to not chase, forcing Team Sky to chase. As soon as Team Sky bridges back, the other needs to attack. Since nobody else who is close really has attack capability, these two have to do it themselves and they have to start quickly. If done right, at least they can bring some suspense to the time trial. If not, they will earn the respect of cycling fans everywhere for going down swinging instead of meekly. And in Nibali's case, we have seen him in a similar situation. He attacked on downhills early and often against Contador in the 2011 Giro d'Italia, trying to win it on the road. It cost him second to Michele Scarponi ultimately, but fans respected his efforts.

5 Is this a bad thing for the sport?

No, as long as Team Sky is racing clean. The Tour has never been the most exciting race in the world (the Team Sky train through mountains and win in time trials with the elite time trialer has been the preferred mode of victory for Indurain, Armstrong and Ullrich – 13 or the last 20 years). The last few years have been total aberrations in recent Tour history owing partially to Contador either being excluded or emptying the tank in the hardest climbing race ever (2011 Giro) and a lack of time trial kilometers (the last five years have seen the five fewest numbers of time trial kilometers since the time trial was introduced to the Tour). Many fans like dominance and will come around on Wiggins as long as he is clean. And those that love suspenseful racing can go back to watching the Giro and Vuelta like they should have been all along.

Tour de France Burning Questions - Stage 2

No that burning is no the yellow helmets for the leaders of the team classification. More on that later.

1 What is Fabian Cancellara's role in animating this race?

Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) is in an interesting place. He is not a high mountain climber. He is a major time trial threat in a race with a lot of time trial kms. He is also the leader of the race. And he's racing on a team that seems to be in total disarray, at least as far as GC is concerned. While Cancellara is not the GC leader of his team, he is in 3^rd place in the points competition and could score more tomorrow with a similar finish to stage 1 where he was 2^nd. If that happens again and with the time trial, is it possible Cancellara and his RSNT team mount a point assault? It could happen, especially if the sprinters start trying to conserve energy for the Olympics and don't contest all of week 2's sprint checkpoints.

2 What is the impact of these classic-like stages we have been seeing over the last few years?

Both Stages 1 and 3 look and act more like classics than normal stage race stages. Last year had a couple of these classic-like short climb finishes and 2010 had a Paris-Roubaix like cobblestone stage. The impact on the race has been positive. For one thing, the entire first week is no longer a procession of sprints. While there is a place for sprints and a lot of them, it's bad when sprints are every day of the first week as they often can be when the parcours are unimaginative. At the very least, these stages make a breakaway a possibility instead of a doomed exercise in suffering for those involved. It also can upend the GC at least a bit giving us more of a pecking order and that is needed with no time bonuses to separate matters any longer. For examples on GC, just look at the Paris-Roubaix stage in 2010 where Cancellara drove Andy Schleck to a time gain that helped Schleck immensely in his tour bid (that was ultimately doomed by Chain-gate then given to Schleck because of Contador's doping DQ). This year already, Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) and Chris Horner (RSNT) were caught out yesterday on Stage 1 and lost time. If nothing else, the pretenders are eliminated early and turned into stage hunters well before they normally would be. I have no problem with that.

3 Are the overall contenders going to attack tomorrow?

The non-time trial men among the overall contenders need to gain time somewhere, even if it's only a few second here and there. With 5 short categorized climbs compressed at the end of the route tomorrow, it seems like a good day to attack if the legs are good, especially with a few days of sprinting upcoming. Still, with the exception of Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and Samuel Sanchez (Euskatel), none of the overall contenders that lack high end time trial skills are know for their big attacks. It makes me wonder if there is going to be a GC staring contest while the breakaway rides up the road and takes the stage win (this result would surely anger current yellow jersey Fabian Cancellara).

4 Given that the Team Time Trial is normally around this time, which contenders will miss it and which are glad it's gone?

Chief among those who will miss it is Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp). His team's early TTT success helped move him into the GC contenders at his Giro d'Italia win in May and the Garmin team has made TTT success a hallmark of what they have done since the squad was formed. Cadel Evans (BMC) will also miss the TTT in part because his team has a couple of other strong TT'ers on it.

Among those who are happy to see it not included are Samuel Sanchez (Euskatel). Sanchez rides on a team that is, at best, allergic to time trialing (seriously, being a Basque climber generally means riding a good time trial is against team regulations). For the first time in a long time, Sanchez isn't starting with a 2 minute disadvantage on GC.

5 Can we get rid of the awful yellow helmets already?

Seriously, these things are crimes against fashion and humanity. Can we get rid of them before a team like Lampre gets a hold of them, please. Just imagine the pain that would cause the eyes. As for so far, here is Team Sky wearing them. They aren't so bad there, at least in comparison to what could happen. **shudders**

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