1 Is the race already over?
So dominant were Bradley Wiggins and
Chris Froome of Team Sky both at Les Planche des Filles and at the
first Individual Time Trial at Besancon that some are ready to anoint
Wiggins the Tour champion. While I won't go that far without having
seen a high mountain stage yet in this year's Tour, I think the
chances are greater than 80% that Wiggins wins at this point because
there is an even longer time trial waiting after the mountains. Given
that Cadel Evans (BMC) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) need to take at
least three minutes and probably four from their current positions to
have a chance in the final time trial. That is unlikely even with all
the mountain stages. The most likely way for Wiggins to not win at
this point is for him to crack badly. If he does, the most likely
winner seems to be Froome, who looks to be in the best climbing form
of everyone.
2 So this is basically a Lance
Armstrong tour all over again isn't it?
For those who don't know, Lance
Armstrong (whether he is guilty of doping or not) used to win or get
close to the yellow jersey in the prologue time trial, rely on his
train of super domestiques that all were capable of top 10 or even
top 5 placements if they were on other teams to pace him up the
mountains, then attack on the final climb against a tired peloton to
gap whoever might be left. This looks really familiar with the only
major difference that Froome is better than any of Armstrong's
lieutenants (with the possible exception of Levi Leipheimer). Of
course given the dominance of Team Sky, much of the internet has been
asking if this is like Lance's US Postal Blue Train in other ways as
well...
3 … Can this possibly be clean
riding by Sky? This is cycling after all.
Is it clean? I think so, but I am not
overly confident. The circumstantial evidence seems bad, but nobody
for Sky has failed a test in a time where the testing has been beefed
up to new levels that weren't there when Lance's doped up team was
pacing him up the mountains (no matter the opinion of Lance himself,
his team included serial dopers Heras, Landis and Hamilton along with
Leipheimer, VandeVelde and Hincapie who are all in the same did he or
didn't he limbo that Lance is in from that era). As for that
circumstantial evidence, Wiggins suddenly jumped quite a few level
after a terrible first year with Team Sky. Yes, he had a 4th
place in the Tour with Garmin in 2009, but his 2010 results reverted
to his previous level and there are plenty of cases in cycling
history where everything came together in one huge effort that was
career defining in a Grand Tour (see Peter Velits podium in 2010
Vuelta a Espana, Bobby Julich finishing 3rd in the 1998
Tour de France and even JJ Cobo's Vuelta win last season in addition
to the legion of Italians who have never done a thing outside of the
Giro d'Italia no matter how much they talked about and targeted other
races). Then 2011 came and Wiggins won the pre-Tour warm up Dauphine
(he did so again this season) before crashing out of the Tour and
finishing 3rd while not having his best form in the
Vuelta. Still, nothing suggested he was about to destroy the field.
On the other hand, his teammate Froome came from literally nowhere to
finish second in the Vuelta and the only guy to beat them was racing
for the spiritual successor team of one of the largest doping rings
in cycling history (Geox was run by people who were involved with
Saunier-Duval, Ricco's team in the 2008 Tour de Farce, and before
that Liberty Seguros, who had half the team thrown out on the eve of
the 2005 Tour for doping violations). Then in this Tour, Wiggins and
Froome seems to be peaking for all the big days. If nothing else it
looks suspicious, especially in this sport. I want to believe they're
clean and I think they are, but it is at least a bit troubling.
4 So what is everyone else to do?
For Evans and Nibali, a strategic
alliance needs to be made. Obviously, their best chance is on
descents. They need to attack together and work together. If one of
them attacks, the other needs to not chase, forcing Team Sky to
chase. As soon as Team Sky bridges back, the other needs to attack.
Since nobody else who is close really has attack capability, these
two have to do it themselves and they have to start quickly. If done
right, at least they can bring some suspense to the time trial. If
not, they will earn the respect of cycling fans everywhere for going
down swinging instead of meekly. And in Nibali's case, we have seen
him in a similar situation. He attacked on downhills early and often
against Contador in the 2011 Giro d'Italia, trying to win it on the
road. It cost him second to Michele Scarponi ultimately, but fans
respected his efforts.
5 Is this a bad thing for the sport?
No, as long as Team Sky is racing
clean. The Tour has never been the most exciting race in the world
(the Team Sky train through mountains and win in time trials with the
elite time trialer has been the preferred mode of victory for
Indurain, Armstrong and Ullrich – 13 or the last 20 years). The
last few years have been total aberrations in recent Tour history
owing partially to Contador either being excluded or emptying the
tank in the hardest climbing race ever (2011 Giro) and a lack of time
trial kilometers (the last five years have seen the five fewest
numbers of time trial kilometers since the time trial was introduced
to the Tour). Many fans like dominance and will come around on
Wiggins as long as he is clean. And those that love suspenseful
racing can go back to watching the Giro and Vuelta like they should
have been all along.
