Olympic Road Race Review - From London

Olympic Podium. Gold medal Vinokourov center,
 Silver Uran left and Bronze Kristoff right.

LONDON - Alexander Vinokourov (Kazakhstan) easily won a two-up sprint over Rigoberto Uran (Colombia) to take a shocking gold medal win in  his final career road race at 38 years old (he will finish career in the time trial on Wednesday). Alexander Kristoff (Norway) took the bronze, beating the rest of the remains of the breakaway that stayed away to the finish in a sprint.

The win by Vinokourov has already been met with mixed reaction. For much of his career, Vino (as many of his fans call him) has been popular for his attacking style and willingness to drop time in the interest of attacking and wins. At the same time, Vino was long suspected of doping, having ridden much of his career with the notorious T-Mobile team (Jan Ullrich, doper extraordinaire), and then he was busted for an illegal blood transfusion during the 2007 Tour de France. This has made him an extremely polarizing figure, especially as he returned to his attacking style after his suspension ended and won Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Stage 13 of the Tour de France, all while being unrepentant for his previous doping sins. At his LBL win, Vino was booed mercilessly by the fans as he was on the winner's podium and many have still never forgiven him. This sentiment continued today as much of the British cycling media went ballistic on twitter after the race with some outright accusing him of doping even now and hoping he would be DQ'ed (I would argue some of this is frustration that Great Britain was unable to do what was needed to Mark Cavendish to the finish line with the front group).

As for the overwhelmingly favored British, the question of course is 'What happened?' What happened is a confluence of events that should have been easy to see but nobody really realized was likely to happen until after the race. The first is the small team sizes. When the British team dominated the World Championship RR in Copenhagen last October, it did so by controlling the whole race and getting help from a couple of other sprint minded teams to deliver Cavendish to the line with the front group. That was never going to work here as teams are made up of only five riders instead of nine. That limit makes it much more difficult to control the race and limit attacks from happening. Also, there were no race radios in this race. The most striking example of this was the composition of the final breakaway. First of all, it was huge, numbering over 30. Second, somehow Fabian Cancellara and three of his Swiss teammates got into the group. That is a terrible mistake to make given Cancellara's talent (more on him later). The final part that really hurt Great Britain was the distance and length of time after the Tour de France. All but Ian Stannard rode the Tour de France. Combine that with the 250 km distance and the five man teams and there were some tired legs. Both Chris Froome and Bradley Wiggins tried and couldn't bring the final breakaway back before pulling off spent. With nobody else willing to work, Britain just burned their legs basically from the opening moments of the race.

Race at the startline. 10 AM London time.

Still, that the break got away tells nothing of how Vinokourov got the win. For that, he needs to thank Cancellara's suddenly suspect bike handling. Cancellara badly misjudged a turn with about 20 km to go and went should first into the barrier. Given the composition of the group at that point, Cancellara was the odds on favorite to win from that spot in the race and his crash reopened the door for everyone else. With the break still going towards the finish but seeming somewhat confused, Vinokourov and Uran launched an attack. Normally, this first attack from the group is doomed to total failure, but then nobody really chased. Vinokourov and Uran (both with few teammates in the race) just rode away from the field leading to the sprint and the shocking conclusion.

As for the sprinters, Andre Greipel (Germany) came in first among them in 27^th place followed by Tom Boonen (Belgium) and Cavendish.

For men's road cycling, next up in the time trial on Wednesday. After Cancellara's crash, Bradley Wiggins is now an overwhelming favorite in the race as Cancellara may not start and will certainly be diminished and world champion Tony Martin (Germany) is still recovering from his injuries suffered both in the Tour de France and on Monday while doing course recon. Given that, Wiggins biggest competition may come from Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) who was third in the final Tour de France Time Trial and appears to be in impeccable form right now.

Tour de France Final Review - Cavendish and Wiggins cap celebration of British Cycling

Today's stage: A sprint battle royale on the Champs-Elysses to finish the Tour de France.

Who won today's stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) won the final sprint for a record 4^th year in a row, taking his third stage win of the Tour to match Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol). The win also gave Cavendish the record for career Tour de France stage wins by a sprinter.

What matters in the GC race? Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) finished to win the Tour de France. He is the first British rider to win the Tour. As a side note, Team Sky was formed three years ago with the goal of having a British Tour de France champion by 2015. Objective achieved. Also, Wiggins has completed the greatest stage race season ever having won Paris-Nice, the Tour of Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphine. Second place was Chris Froome (Team Sky) and third place and on the final podium was Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas).

What matters in other competitions?

Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) did his green jersey proud by finishing second on the stage today behind Cavendish. Sagan was by far the strongest rider among those that really contested the jersey.

Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) won this jersey with his two mountain stage victories after the two rest days.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) ended up winning by over 6 minutes. Next up for him are the August stage race in the United States.

Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT won the team competition, it's biggest objective with no GC contender on the roster after Andy Schleck's injury before the Tour de France.

Biggest surprise of the entire race: Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) wasn't supposed to race the Tour de France. Too young (youngest rider in the race) and too inexperienced (no Grand Tours, these guys usually race at least one Vuelta or Giro before getting a shot at the Tour). But Pinot lobbied for the final team spot after an injury occurred and he made it pay off. A stage win and a top 10 overall finish for a Frenchman is incredible. Along with Pierre Rolland (Europcar), French cycling finally has a future other than stage hunters again.

Biggest disappointment of the entire race: Nobody ever really challenged Sky. Early on, Team Sky just rode at the front and let the crashes behind kill off their rivals (looks at Garmin and Rabobank's tattered remains after stage 6). Then they pounced in the mountains (Jurgen Van Den Broeck did puncture right before the start of the climb on stage 7, costing him over two minutes), killing everyone except Vincenzo Nibali off easily at some point during the race. As for Nibali, he had no help at all. Liquigas has little mountains support and all of it was tired and off-form after racing very hard to control the race (futilely I add) in the Giro. Eventually, he tired as well and no matter he was never going to take the necessary time to avoid being smoked in the time trials by the specialists.

Other items of note: For teams, the stage win breakdown is as follows: Team Sky, 6 (Cavendish, 3; Wiggins, 2; Froome, 1); Liquigas, 3 (All Sagan); Lotto-Belisol, 3 (All Greipel); Europcar, 3 (Voeckler, 2; Rolland, 1); FDJ, 2 (Pinot, 1; Fedrigo, 1); RSNT, 1 (Cancellara); Movistar, 1 (Valverde); Rabobank, 1 (Sanchez); Garmin, 1 (Millar)... The Super-Combative Prize for most aggressive rider of the whole Tor went to Chris Anker Sorenson (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff). Sorenson was in a multitude of breakaways searching for either a stage win or King of the Mountain points. He ended up third in the KoM and 14^th overall.

What is coming next for the peloton? Next up for many are the Olympics. The Road Race is on Saturday (I will be in London for the festivities) and the Time Trial on Thursday the week after that. From there, it's back to the normal schedule. For the American riders and teams, that means prep for the USAPCC. For everyone else, that means relax time or get ready for the Vuelta and World Championships. The Vuelta, and the return of Contador is less than four week away.

Tour de France Stage 18 Review - Cavendish Destroys Sprint Field

Today’s stage: Rolling hills, Most thought breakaway. I thought sprint. I was right.

Who won today’s stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) launched an amazing sprint destroying the other sprinters and passing the other two breakaway riders before the line to take the stage easily.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing. Nothing at all. This was a day for GC contenders to stay in the group and conserve energy before the time trial tomorrow.

What matters in other competitions?

Green Jersey (Points) – Not much. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) was 3^rd on the stage and extended his lead further, not that he needed to.

Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) had already clinched this competition over Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) at the beginning of the stage. All Voeckler must do is finish in Paris.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) has nearly wrapped this up. Only a time trial crash could deny him considering his only rival Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) is not a great time trialist.

Team Classification (Calculated by added the three best times on each team each day) – No changes. This goes to the time trial. RSNT leads Team Sky by 14’ 05. In the first time trial, Sky won the stage over RSNT by 1’ 26, but that was with everyone except Froome and Wiggins slow pedaling and Fabian Cancellara was still in the race. Given that Cancellara is no longer around and Sky riders Richie Porte and Michael Rogers are elite time trialists, there is a chance that Sky could make up that gap.

Biggest surprise: The break never really formed. All day there were small attacks and groups got away, but nobody ever got over three minutes as the peloton seemed intent on a sprint. It was almost as though the sprinter teams didn’t even want to risk another Sky controlled slow pedal day allowing the break to win by 10 minutes and so they decided the best way to avoid was to not allow the break to ever go anywhere.

Biggest disappointment: None. The actions of the peloton not letting a break go and chasing the constant attacks made for a fast and entertaining stage. The constitution of the attacks with big names like Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) and Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) made for entertaining, attacking riding.

Other items of note: All of the jerseys are pretty much secure. It’s not often this happens in the Tour de France before the final time trial (though the KoM is always decided by this point)…The final podium is pretty much set with Bradley Wiggins, Chris Froome and VIncenzo Nibali. This has been more normal over the years despite the recent years of having GC battles in the final time trial… For those teams that don’t have a win, it is probably over for them. Only Orica-GreenEdge with perpetual second place Matt Goss has any chance from among the non-stage winning teams has any chance to win a stage… Poor Luis Leon Sanchez. While he did get his stage win, it was on the tacks stage so nobody remembers. Other than that, he crashed and damaged his wrist on stage 1 and he was chased down by Sky twice on late attacks that looked promising.

What is coming tomorrow? Time trial. Flat. Built for specialists. This is Bradley Wiggins territory, especially with Cancellara and Tony Martin out of the race.

Tomorrow’s prediction: 1. Bradley Wiggins 2. Chris Froome 3. Tejay van Gerderen

Tour de France Stage 5 - Greipel repeats win from yesterday

Today's stage: A long procession to a bunch sprint. Same as yesterday. Not even with a categorized climb along the way.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) won his second sprint in a row, catching the breakaway and overtaking Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) in the final 100 meters to take the stage.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing, again. 3 km rule after a crash, again. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) still leads overall. This is unlikely to change tomorrow either as there is another sprint stage.

What matters in other competitions?

Green Jersey (Points) – The bonus Peter Sagan (Liquigas) got yesterday when Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) crashed is gone. Sagan was caught in Tyler Farrar's (Garmin-Sharp) 4^th crash of the race. He still leads the green jersey competition, but Goss, Greipel and Cavendish are a whole lot closer now.

Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With no climbs today, Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) retained the jersey. He will retain the jersey as long as he finishes tomorrow as well with onlt one category 4 climb on the route.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group. Barring a crash this won't change until stage 7 with a mountain top finish.

Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The 3 km rule being applied also means there was no change here, not that it was likely with a bunch sprint finish.

Biggest surprise: The breakaway nearly held on. There was a four-man breakaway seemed doomed all day long. For the whole race, they never got a huge lead. Still, the peloton let them hang on the vine and nearly paid for it as the break was in tact with under 1 km to go and got to the final 100 meters before being caught.

Biggest disappointment: Sagan was collected in the crash. The finish was slightly uphill today which suits Sagan and would possibly limit some of the top end speed that can neutralize him in a bunch sprint. That was all for naught for Sagan after being collected in the Farrar crash.

Other items of note: Argos-Shimano sprinter Marcel Kittel was forced to abandon the race today. He was unable to recover from his various stomach ailments that have limited him all tour long. For his team, it was second guessed when John Degenkolb was left at home and it looks worse now even though Tom Veelers had done decently in the sprints thus far... Team Sky interestingly came to the front and gave Cavendish a bit of help today for the first time all race. I wonder if that will be the case tomorrow with a mountain stage on Saturday.

What is coming tomorrow? One last sprint day before the mountains. There is only one categorized climb tomorrow. Like today, I feel sorry for whoever ends up on breakaway duty.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 3. Mark Renshaw (Rabobank)

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Tour de France Stage 4 - Greipel sprints to victory as Cav crashed behind him

Today's stage: A long procession to a bunch sprint.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) used a perfect lead out from his team to defeat a reduced field after a crash just inside 3km to go. Among those not involved because of the crash were stage favorite Mark Cavendish (Team Sky).

What matters in the GC race? The 3 km rule took effect today. It states that if involved in a crash on a non-summit finish with 3km or less to go then everybody in the group gets the same time. That means we still have a top 3 of Fabian Cancellara (RSNT), Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS).

What matters in other competitions?

Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) got a huge bonus on his points quest with Cavendish being involved in the crash. Sagan finished fifth on the stage and now leads Matthew Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) by 55 points, Greipel by 60 and Cavendish by 61.

Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) finally took a day off from breakaway duty with not enough points available to threaten him in this competition.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group. Barring a crash this won't change until stage 7 with a mountain top finish.

Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The 3 km rule being applied also means there was no change here, not that it was likely with a bunch sprint finish.

Biggest surprise: Nothing. Nothing at all. This was a by the books sprint stage. Early breakaway goes and takes a big lead. Big lead is eroded by the peloton when it decides it wants to chase. Breakaway is caught. Crash near the end takes a few contenders out. Sprint. With the exception of the crash that often happens, this is the patter for every bunch sprint in cycling.

Biggest disappointment: Cavendish was collected in the crash. After using Matt Goss' Orica-GreenEdge train as his own personal lead out for the intermediate sprint, Cavendish looked like the strongest man for the sprint for sure, but the crash deprived us of the battle.

Other items of note: Martin Tjallingi (Rabobank) was forced to abandon after his injuries from yesterday's crash. He somehow managed to finish the stage with a broken pelvis. In addition Tom Danielson (Garmin-Sharp) lost a lot of time yesterday meaning he won't be replicating his top 10 from a year ago, especially carrying a major shoulder injury... Over at the Tour of Austria, Jakob Fuglsang (RSNT) took the stage win and the race lead today.

What is coming tomorrow? More sprinting. There isn't even a categoriezed climb at all on the route tomorrow.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge)

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Tour de France Stage 3 - Another Saganesque Victory

Today's stage: A one-day classic disguised as part of a stage race.

Who won today's stage? Peter Sagan (Liquigas) won his second stage in three days. While he isn't automatic in a sprint like he was in California or Switzerland, these hilly stages are easy marks for him right now.

What matters in the GC race? Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) finished with the main group and retained the yellow jersey, but not without a few tense moments as 3^rd place Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS) attacked and nearly stole the stage and the jersey on the final climb. Among the overall threats, Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) is still the top man and everyone else still has the same time as before.

What matters in other competitions?

Green Jersey (Points) – Sagan extended his lead in the Green jersey competition with his stage win. His main competition is defending champion Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) who freelanced his way to top points in the intermediate sprint remaining in range of catching Sagan.

Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) got himself in the break for the 3^rd day day in a row. This allowed him extend his lead. He is sure to retain the jersey tomorrow as there aren't enough points available for anyone to pass him. Maybe he will take a mch needed rest and avoid the breakaway tomorrow.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group.

Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – With a large group finishing together, there was no change here. Team Sky retains the lead and they will continue to wear the new yellow helmets that go along with leadership in this competition. In other words, ditto yesterday. This doesn't figure to change until the mountains.

Biggest surprise: Morkov in the break again. He is likely to pay dearly later, but his team's new second sponsor Tinkoff has to be pleased with all of the screen time they have gotten thus far. Still, when was the last time someone was in the break three days in a row? Not even anyone from the FDJ breakaway squad from last season managed that.

Biggest disappointment: Nobody really challenged Sagan. It was too easy considering Sagan had a chance to celebrate with a running man dance on the bike as he won. At least Chavanel tried with his big attack. Everyone else either had nothing for Sagan or didn't bother trying as they saved energy for GC assaults later.

Other items of note: Today was a festival of crashes. Early on Astana leader Jani Brajkovic crashed (he is fine and still sits 13^th overall). Later, Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) and Kanstantin Siutsou (Team Sky) collided and caused a decent sized pile up. Siutsou was forced to abandon because of his injuries. Finally, there was a large pile up that included Farrar again, JJ Rojas (Movistar), Johnny Hoogerland (Vacansoleil), Simon Gerrans (Orica-GreenEdge) and many others. As a result of the crashes, many were stuck behind the main field where the Movistar team drove forward and dropped everyone. Notable among those that lost time some amount of time: Christian Vandevelde (Garmin-Sharp), Tom Danielson (Garmin-Sharp) and Thomas Voeckler (Europcar). Also of note, Rojas was forced to abandon.

What is coming tomorrow? Sprinters awaken again. Tomorrow is pancake flat for the final run in and has no climbs above category 4 at all. This means sprinters all the way.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Kenny Van Hummel (Vaconsoleil)

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Tour de France Daily - Cavendish sprints to victory, as usual

Today's stage: Sprinty sprint. With only one climb on the route and it a cat 4 before the halfway point of the stage, we were destined for a bunch sprint finish today.

Who won today's stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) opened up his Tour de France count this year with his 21^st career stage win beating Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) at the line.

What matters in the GC race? Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) finished safely in the bunch to retain the yellow jersey. He still leads Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS) by seven seconds. Among the favorites, Wiggins is the leader followed by Denis Menchov (Katusha), Cadel Evans (BMC), Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp)

What matters in other competitions?

Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) took over the lead after scoring points in the intermediate sprint and finishing 6^th on the stage. Stage winner Mark Cavendish is now 2^nd and former leader Fabian Cancellara is now 3^rd.

Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Still little progress here. Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) was in the break for the second straight day and took the only pint available to extend his lead. Tomorrow will bring a new pecking order with lots of hills at the end of the stage.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group.

Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – With a large group finishing together, there was no change here. Team Sky retains the lead and they will continue to wear the new yellow helmets that go along with leadership in this competition. In other words, ditto yesterday.

Biggest surprise: Cavendish contested the intermediate sprint while Greipel and Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) did not. With the intermediate sprint giving such a huge cache of points, Greipel and Farrar both signaled they are not at all contenders for the sprinters jersey by not even contesting the intermediate sprint. Cavendish has been saying since the Giro ended that the Green jersey was not his goal in this Tour because of the upcoming Olympics. Nonetheless, he was still up there to contest for some reason. The question is why (I think he was sandbagging knowing he has no lead out train and the green jersey is still the target)?

Biggest disappointment: Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano) is one of the best sprinters in the world. He didn't get a chance to show it today because of a stomach bug that caused him to be unable to hold the wheel of the peloton. That's too bad for all of us fans and spectators as Kittel beat Cavendish twice in a tune up race in the Netherlands two weeks ago.

Other items of note: Tony Martin (OPQS) and Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) both struggled with their injuries from yesterday. Martin in particular is riding with a broken bone in his wrist and seems to be holding on only to have the opportunity to test his form in the Stage 9 Time Trial... Despite this being the biggest race in the world, there are other races happening in the cycling world (most are now only because they moved up to avoid the Olympics). At the Tour of Austria, Danilo Di Luca (Acqua & Sapone) won today over Steve Morabito (BMC) and Thomas Rohregger (RSNT).

What is coming tomorrow? Another punchy, hilly stage like Stage 1. Tomorrow has five climbs including the first category 3 climbs of the race in the final 35 km. Given the race finishes atop a category 4 hill again, the sprinters will likely be uninvolved.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Cadel Evans (BMC) 2. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) 3. Robert Gesink (Rabobank)

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Tour de France Green Jersey Preview

The Tour de France is upon us. Most know about the overall victory and the yellow jersey that comes with it. For many riders, the yellow jersey is nothing more than a pipe dream. They lack the talent for climbing or more likely just have a heavier build. These riders become sprinters or all-rounders. They excel at winning races on flatlands or on moderately hilly courses (just not mountains). For these riders, there is another competition, the Green Jersey, one of the most prestigious titles in cycling outside of winning a Grand Tour or a Monument.

It's Power Ranking time

1 Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) – The defending champion of this classification. Cavendish was on point away from winning the equivalent competition at the May Giro d'Italia. Still, he is not the overwhelming favorite he has been in the past as he was smoked in sprints by Marcel Kittel (more on him later) recently and is pointed as much if not more to the Olympic Road Race in his home country just a week after the end of the tour. Considering Cavendish also does not have a sprint train dedicated to him like in previous years (he rides for Team Sky sharing the team with overall favorite Bradley Wiggins), his favorite status is tenuous at best despite his long record of stage victories and last year's green jersey in this race.

2 Peter Sagan (Liquigas) – Another rider without a sprint train (much of the team will be devoted to GC hope Vincenzo Nibali), Sagan may not need it. If the stage is possible to end in a sprint and has any sort of climbing to drop other sprinters, Sagan is going to win. For those that doubt that, look at his wins at the Tour of California and Tour de Suisse over the last month and a half. The only reason he isn't number one is that he hasn't beaten Cavendish in any of those races (Cavendish was busy elsewhere) and this is his first Tour de France. Cavendish won four stages his first time out but didn't finish the race and he won five stages in another tour but lost the green jersey to single stage winner Thor Hushovd. A similar thing could fell the inexperienced Sagan here.

3 Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano) – Kittel has been winning races everywhere for two years now, but most have been lower level races as he races for a Pro Continental team. Still, he is a threat and he beat Cavendish twice at the recent Ster ZLM Toer in the Netherlands. Once again though, inexperience is a likely culprit here as Kittel has never raced the Tour de France before and was beaten soundly by Sagan at the Vuelta last August.

4 Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEgde) – Cavendish's former teammate at HTC-Columbia, Goss will have a sprint train at his disposal as there are no GC threats on his team. Still, Goss has yet to beat Cavendish head-to-head (since parting ways, Goss has finished second to Cavendish four times including the World Championships last year and only won when Cavendish crashed) and therefore cannot be considered a real threat until he does.

5 Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) – Another former Cavendish teammate, Greipel won a stage last year and seems likely to do so again this year. Still, a green jersey seems like a longshot as Greipel is inconsistent at best when it comes to winning day in and day out like what is needed at the Tour de France.

6 Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) – The old war horse here, Petacchi's career seems dead, but he is listed this high because many thought he was done two years ago when he won the Green Jersey. Write him off at your own risk.

7 Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) – Farrar vs Cavendish was thought a couple of years ago to be the next great sprint rivalry, but Farrar has not held his end of the bargain up. He has lacked form all season, then he crashed in the Giro d'Italia and watched his teammate Ryder Hesjedal win the whole race (in a huge upset). This means he has no sprint train like he normally does and combined with his lacking form, he is unlikely to win a stage this year.

8 JJ Rojas (Movistar) – Second place last year, he lacks the top end speed to really contend in this competition, especially as everything that he does well is done better by Sagan. Still deserves a mention though.

9 Kenny Van Hummel (Vacansoleil) – More like to win a stage than Petacchi, Farrar or Rojas, but he realistically has no chance at the Green Jersey. In his first Tour de France three years ago, Van Hummel spent the entire race in the mountains racing against the time cut before falling on a descent during stage 17. While his struggle was popular (he was the last finisher on every mountain stage until his crash) with people speculating about whether the organizers would “Kill Kenny” by DQ'ing him on the time cut, it also showed he is unlikely to ever win a green jersey as he is unlikely to ever get over the mountains with enough energy to compete in the final sprint often needed to win the green jersey.

10 Philippe Gilbert (BMC) – Would be ranked higher, much higher, if he was on a different team. That he is on the team of defending champion Cadel Evans means he won't get to ride for himself at all after the Stage 2 Liege race that runs by his hometown. Still, I expect him to find a stage win somewhere and to finish in the points top ten.

Giro D'Italia Stage 20 - De Gendt's ride for the ages caps best GT stage in years

Today's stage: Utter brutality. Mortirolo (one of the three most difficult climbs in Europe along with the Zoncolan and the Angliru) and then a summit finish atop the Passo Dello Stelvio (highest ever finish for a Grand Tour stage)

Who won today's stage? Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil) defied conventional wisdom and attacked on the upped slopes of the Mortirolo. The GC leaders never saw him again. At one point on the Stelvio, it looked like De Gendt had a shot at the race lead also, but he has settled into fourth place going into the time trial. The ride itself was one of the more incredible long distance attacks we have seen in recent years (rivaled only by Andy Schleck's attack on the Galibier stage in last year's Tour de France) and is now the biggest win of De Gendt's career, by far.

What matters in the GC race? A remaking and moving of the pieces entering the final stage time trial tomorrow. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads the race after a late attack dropped his rivals. He finished 4^th on the stage. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) is still second, but he now trails by 31 seconds. Michele Scarponi (Lampre) is 3^rd, 1'51” behind and De Gendt moved from 8^th to 4^th with his incredible ride, now 2'18” behind and with a chance at the podium tomorrow.

What matters in the other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Oh what might have been for Mark Cavendish (Team Sky). He has lost the lead to Rodriguez by one point with only the time trial left. Had Cavendish won the sprint on Thursday, he would have this jersey locked down. Instead, he needs the best time trial of his life to score points tomorrow and retake the jersey on the final day. It looks unlikely though Rodrgiuez is also unlikely to score points tomorrow (and he really doesn't care either given that he is the overall leader).

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) managed to get himself in the early breakaway and scored enough points on the early climbs to seal the final blue jersey. With Rabottini in the break, none of the other outside shots that were possibilities bothered to contest today.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Sergio Henao (Team Sky) played good teammate today. At one point, Hesjedal dropped all but a few riders. Henao had managed to stay with Hesjedal and could have continued on and possibly taken the jersey from his teammate Rigerberto Uran. Instead, Henao dropped back and helped pace Uran up the Stelvio to protect the higher overall position and leave the jersey in the hands of his teammate.

Biggest surprise: De Gendt attacked from so far away. The Mortirolo, fearsome though it is, was thought to not be decisive this year because of the 20 km flat run up to the Stelvio. Instead, it played the same role as the Passo Lavaze did yesterday. De Gendt sent a teammate up the road just a little bit and then attacked himself, like Roman Krueziger (Astana) did yesterday. Then De Gendt rode away with the race though he didn't fade as bad as Krueziger did yesterday. The tactics were solid and the ride was superb, helped a bit by. De Gendt is a most deserving winner, but the amount of his time gap was helped by...

Biggest disappointment: ...the GC staring match. In the valley between the Mortirolo and the Stelvio, the top six GC men (Rodriguez, Hesjedal, Scarponi, Basso, Uran and Pozzovivo) all stared at each other, nearly coming to a total stop as all refused to work, attempting to make Hesjedal and his Garmin team do the pacemaking. This continued all the way nearly to the top of the Stelvio. Had De Gendt not faded in the final two kilometers, he would be leading the GC right now because of this since he actually got a lead on the day of over five minutes and at one point was ahead of Hesjedal on Virtual GC (the overall standings if the stage was stopped on the spot). Then, after making Hesjedal do all the work, Scarponi and Rodriguez attacked (Basso, Pozzovivo and Uran get a pass as they were dropped by Hesjedal on the Stelvio before the attacks started). Considering De Gendt is as good a time trialer (maybe even better) as Hesjedal, Rodriguez and Scarponi stupidly nearly let another threat to the overall enter the picture. As it is, De Gendt is a threat to their podium places now.

Other items of note: Four riders including Robbie Hunter (Garmin) and stage 18 winner Andrea Guardini (Farnese Vini) were disqualified from the race today for holding onto cars... The question for Mark Cavendish now is, “Was it worth it?” We will see. Cavendish has difficulties (that's an understatement) in the mountains and suffered all week in an attempt to win the Red Jersey (and complete his collection of Grand Tour points jerseys having already won the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana competitions). I suspect the answer won't come until the end of July. That would be the Olympic Road Race, being held on home roads in London and likely a sprint finish.

What is coming tomorrow? The final time trial for all the marbles. Hesjedal is most certainly the favorite as Rodriguez is notoriously bad in the time trial (remember that he lost four minutes in a stage 17 time trial while leading the 2010 Vuelta a Espana) while Hesjedal is good. Further down, De Gendt is excellent if Hesjedal has a bad day tomorrow and he is likely more of a threat than Scarponi is if we get further down the line. Extended preview of the time trial later today.

Giro d'Italia Stage 18 - Final Sprint with only Mountains left

Today's stage: Cruise control. Downhill sprint stage and only 139 km. This was basically a long drawn out descent before the pain really begins tomorrow.

Who won today's stage? Andrea Guardini (Farnese Vini) shocked everyone by beating Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) in the the sprint. The bigger shock was that it was no fluke. Guardini just had more speed, easily.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing at all. It was a bunch finish and nobody of note got a time bonus. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) by 30 seconds.

What matters in the other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Cavendish extended his lead over Rodriguez, but he really needed the stage win. That would have been an extra five points. As it stands now, Rodriguez is likely to overtake him in the next two days in the high mountains with summit finishes. As crazy as this sounds, with only one category 3 hill before the sprint checkpoint, I wonder if Cavendish tries to get in the breakaway tomorrow to steal just a few more points (Saturday is unlikely with a cat 2 and two cat 3's before the sprint point).

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No categorized climbs mean Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) still holds the jersey by a wide margin.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here. It's still Rigoberto Uran (Team Sky) and Sergio Henao (Team Sky) battling (and working together for their team).

Biggest surprise: Cavendish lost. He was beaten by a faster sprinter. Normally, there is no faster sprinter and when Cavendish loses there is some other reason (crash – see stage 3 and stage 9, team misread corner at end – see stage 11). Not today. Cavendish has had to nearly empty the tank to survive the mountains, even in the grupetto behind the the stage leaders.

Biggest disappointment: Nothing. This was everything expected, even the fast pace because it was pretty much straight downhill.

Other items of note: We now are down 31 riders with the abandonments overnight of Martin Velits (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) and Gaetan Bille (Lotto-Belisol). There might be a few more abandons overnight tonight after the final sprint stage as the few that are left in the race have no more opportunities remaining with only two summit finishes and a time trial left... Today's sprint course was much better than some others have been. No climbs, but it was short, downhill, fast and straight. Couldn't ask for a better design at this point in the race.

What is coming tomorrow? Let the pain commence. 198 km tomorrow with three category 1 climbs, a cat 3 and a cat 2. Also a summit finish. I suspect the Giro will not be won here with an even more difficult stage on tap for Saturday, but it could most certainly be lost here.

Giro d'Italia Stage 13 - Last stage before Mountain carnage

Today’s stage: Really short stage built for sprinters before the mountains and the end of all sprinting life are upon us. The organizers didn’t even put a ridiculous turn in to cause a crash or make things interesting.

Who won today’s stage? Refer to earlier posts. Are there hills on the stage? No. Is there any reason why there shouldn’t be a sprint? No. Is Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) in the field? Yes. Pick him. And that is what happened. No climbs, no road furniture, no ridiculous turns and Cavendish was in field, therefore Cavendish won.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing. Nothing at all. The dullest day of Grand Tour racing since I started doing this during the Giro last year means absolutely nothing at all happened in the overall standings chase. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads by 17” over Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) entering the high mountains tomorrow.

What matters in other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Cavendish extended his lead over Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) with his stage win. The question is if he (or Goss) will stay in the race with only one sprint stage left and a whole lot of mountains. If both leave, the defacto leader is Rodriguez with Domenico Pozzovivo (Colnago) and Martijn Keizer (Vacansoleil) also in contention.

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – I guess Michal Golas (Omega Pharma QuickStep) is actually going to contest this. He jumped out of the group at the top of the climb to score one point and extend his lead to 10 points. That said, the real battle for this begins tomorrow with the first category 1 mountains of the race.

White Jersey (Young Rider) – No changes. Damiano Caruso (Liquigas) still leads the Team Sky double of Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao heading into the mountains. Uran and Henao are more likely winners here as Caruso will have to help teammate Ivan Basso in the mountains while Uran and Henao are the protected riders for their teams.

Team Classification – No changes with everyone finishing in a bunch. Movistar still leads followed Liquigas and BMC. This category will be shattered tomorrow with the arrival of the high mountains and the first real summit finish of this year’s race.

Biggest surprise: There was no crash today. Every other sprint stage has had one, so the fact that there wasn’t a crash is a surprise, even without any stupid turns right before the finish line.

Biggest disappointment: Nothing happened. I know there is a need for a break, especially with mountains tomorrow and no rest day for awhile, but did the organizers have to come up with one of the single most dull and boring routes in Grand Tour history. Nothing happened at all on this day.

Other items of note: At the Tour of California, Peter Sagan (Liquigas) finally didn’t win. Of course it was a long time trial. Not exactly his specialty. Dave Zabriskie (Garmin) took the win with 40 year old Jens Voight (Radio Shack-Nissan-Trek) a surprising second. Among the overall contenders, Tejay van Garderen (BMC), Robert Gesink (Rabobank) and Peter Velits (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) became the overall contenders after Levi Leipheimer (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) and Chris Horner (Radio Shack-Nissan-Trek) had difficult time trials and lost lots of time. As for Sagan, he has one or two more stage chances, but he is out of the overall race after losing over 3 minutes to Zabriskie… We lost another rider today as Reto Hollenstein (NetApp) was involved in a nasty crash and was taken to the hospital with a likely broken collarbone. Considering all of the sprint crashes, it is amazing there haven’t been more abandonments. Entering tomorrow’s first high mountain stage there have been only 13 abandonments, a very low number for a Grand Tour. Expect to number to rise quickly over the next week.

What is coming tomorrow? The torment begins. There are only two climbs tomorrow, but they are really difficult. First up is the Col de Joux. 22.4km long with an average grade of 5.6%. Then a long descent followed by the similar climb to Cervina at the foot of the Matterhorn (27km long with an average grade of 5.5%). These gradients and lengths favor the diesel climbers over the explosive ones. Think Ivan Basso and Domenico Pozzovivo instead of Joaquim Rodriguez.

Giro d'Italia Stage 11 - Over halfway home

Today's stage: Long and boring. And that's not only me saying that. Michele Scarponi (Lampre) said that before the stage began. And he was right. Over 250 km with a tricky climb at the end and another stupidly placed turn on the final sprint home.

Who won today's stage? Roberto Ferrari (Androni Giacattoli) found the best line through the hairpin turn and accelerated away from Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) and a crashed peloton, passing Tomas Vaitkus (GreenEdge) along the way to take the stage win.

What matters in the GC race? Frank Schleck (Radio Shack-Nissan) likely had his hopes dashed completely. He lost 46 seconds today leaving him 2' 11” behind leader Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha). Considering the way Schleck struggles in the time trial, his hopes are cooked.

What matters in the other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Mark Cavendish took over the lead from Matt Goss (GreenEdge) with his 3^rd place finish on the stage today. For his part, Goss didn't make the final group.

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Miguel Rubiano (Androni Giacattoli) still leads after his presence in the breakaway on stage 6. He will likely lead until next weekend when the high mountains hit for the first time. At some point this week, I expect him to try his hand in a breakaway again for more points. Tomorrow is a day similar to stage 6 where someone contesting this jersey will try to make the breakaway.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here. Damiano Caruso (Laquigas) still leads followed by Team Sky's Colombian pairing of Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao

Team Classification – Not much here either. Liquigas now leads over Astana, Movistar and Garmin, but this really won't heat up until Saturday in the mountains.

Biggest surprise: Normally, it would be Ferrari's win, but that was as much because of luck in guessing the correct line though it appeared he had better legs than Cavendish today as well. The winner here is Vaitkus. Not normally a sprinter, he was only 150m from stealing a stage win because of the crash behind before fading to 5^th. Still a good placing for him.

Biggest disappointment: Where was Frank Schleck. Above already chronicled his time loss, but why? This stage shouldn't have caught any GC contender out of the group. I know that Schleck got sent to this race on short notice, but it appears that he, like his brother, only cares about two races all season: the Tour de France and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Even with the short notice, Schleck should be in good enough shape to stay with the group here.

Other items of note: Over at the Tour of California, Peter Sagan (Liquigas) took stage 3 in a sprint, just like stages 1 and 2. With another hard climbing day early followed by a long flat/downhill stretch, I wouldn't bet against him making it 4-for-4 today. At this point, he might even be an overall contender there because of the time bonuses... There was another stupid finish today back in Italy that caused yet another sprint crash, but this is the last of my complaining about it for today...Thomas Leezer (Rabobank) abandoned today, bringing the total number to nine so far in the race.

What is coming tomorrow? 155 km of medium mountain goodness. That said, its breakaway time. The toughest of the four categorized climbs is 33 km from the finish and its a category 2. Still, that will be enough to shed the sprinters and with no real time gaps likely, the breakaway will get a large leash, especially if it consists of riders an hour down like most of the breakaways so far in this race. Still and intriguing stage as the King of the Mountains classification will heat up once again.

Giro d'Italia Daily - Another Cavendish sprint win

Today's stage: Sprinty sprint, though the small category 4 climb near the end was a lot more difficult than anyone thought it would be.

Who won today's stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) was still around for the sprint. Cavendish did not crash. Therefore Cavendish won the stage, his second of the race. Matt Goss (Orica GreenEdge) was second, his second time in second to go with his stage victory.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing much. Ramunas Navardauskas (Garmin-Barracuda) still leads and none of the GC contenders were dropped on that climb today. Among the GC men, Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Barracuda) and Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha) lead.

Biggest surprise: 20+ riders got dropped on that climb. It wasn't that bad and those getting dropped there have big problems ahead. This is the Giro after all and despite the early easy stages, the mountains will still be hard even if it's not last year's absurd climbing spectacle.

Biggest disappointment: Nobody has emerged to challenge Cavendish and Goss in the sprints. The former teammates finished 1-2 both today and in stage 2 and Goss won stage 3 where Cavendish crashed.

Other items of note: Among the riders dropped were sprinters Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Barracuda), Thor Hushovd (BMC) and Theo Bos (Rabobank). Considering Cavendish and his awful climbing won the stage, this isn't a good sign for their respective forms on the bike.

What is coming tomorrow? The first category 2 climb of the race, the Passo Della Cappella is on the route tomorrow, but midway through the stage. There are also three category 3 climbs along the way. Expect the stage hunters to give it a go, but I expect a sprint from those sprinters who have some climbing legs. Goss looks good for this one if a sprint does occur.

Giro d'Italia Daily Stage 3 - Major crash mars yet another sprint

Today's stage: Another long (190 km), flat stage ending in a sprint. There really isn't much else that can be done in Denmark.

Who won today's stage? Matt Goss (Orica GreenEdge) bettered his second place from yesterday by winning today over JJ Haedo (Saxo Bank) and Tyler Farrar (Garmin) after yesterday's winner Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) was collected in a crash (more on that later).

What matters in the GC race? Nothing in the grand picture. In the short term, current leader Taylor Phinney (BMC) was contesting the sprint and got collected in the crash. He finished in an ambulance and may not continue in the race, but he keeps the leaders jersey for now as the crash happened inside the last three km during a sprint meaning he gets the same time as everyone else.

Biggest surprise: Goss was going to win the stage over Cavendish even without the crash. Cavendish's team didn't do a great job of setting him up resulting in a late start to his sprint. That was the main reason he was collected in the crash and even without it likely could have only reached 3^rd place.

Biggest disappointment: The crash itself was just stupid riding from Roberto Ferrari (Androni-Giacatolli) who jumped right looking for a gap that wasn't there (or even close to being there) and took Cavendish's front wheel out. From there the pile up was on collecting numerous other riders including Phinney.

Other items of note: Riders paid tribute to Wouter Weylandt, killed in a crash during stage 3 last season. His number (108) has been officially retired by the race... Tonight is the longest transfer in Giro history with everyone traveling to Italy to get the real fireworks started.

What is coming tomorrow? Tomorrow is a rest day because of the long transfer. Then it's Team Time Trial day on Wednesday. The TTT is always interesting and nearly always eliminates someone from GC contention because his team is awful in this discipline. The question is who that will be.

Giro d'Italia Daily - Stage 2 - Sprint for Cavendish

Today's stage: A long (206 km), flat stage set up for the sprinters (which is all that can every really exist in Denmark outside of a time trial and that was yesterday).

Who won today's stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) is the best sprinter in the world. And he won the first stage with fresh legs. No shock there, especially since there were no mountains to deal with today. Cavendish's former teammate at HTC-High Road Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) was second.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing at all. It was a sprint stage. Things don't change on these stages. Current leader Taylor Phinney (BMC) had a mechanical issue under 10 km from the finish but was paced back to the peloton by his teammates.

Biggest surprise: The breakaway was caught so early. Yesterday, I said the breakaway would be caught with around 15-20 km to go. I was partially right. The first breakaway was caught well before then. And then Lars Bak's (Lotto-Belisol) single man attempt was caught at 15 km to go.

Biggest disappointment: What were the organizers thinking putting a 90 degree turn in the final km. That is just asking for a crash and that is exactly what happened. The biggest name caught in the crash was Rabobank sprinter and recent double stage winner in Turkey Theo Bos.

Other items of note: Tomorrow's stage will be raced in honor of Wouter Weylandt who died in a crash during stage 3 of last year's Giro... Also, the Mayor or tomorrow's host city of Horsens died of a heart attack today.

What is coming tomorrow? Another day in Denmark, another sprint. That said, I am going with Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Barracuda) over Cavendish. Farrar will have extra motivation to win on the tribute day for his best friend and training partner Weylandt.