Showing posts with label Cadel Evans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cadel Evans. Show all posts

Jul 21, 2012

Tour de France Final TT Review - Wiggins Destroys Field to Claim Yellow


Today's stage: The final time trial. A day when many Champions have confirms their strength in this race.

Who won today's stage? Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) did what a champion is supposed to do in the final time trial: win the thing. Of course the shock is that he destroyed the field again, just like the first time trial. Only his teammate Chris Froome and Spanish time trial champion Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) were within two minutes of Wiggins on the stage and the overall victory is confirmed by a large margin.

What matters in the GC race? No change on the podium. The time gaps between Wiggins, Froome and Vincezno Nibali (Liquigas) got larger. Below them there was some reshuffling in the bottom half of the top ten. Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) struggled in the time trial and dropped to 7th place behind Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) has clinched the Green Jersey.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) has clinched the Polka Dot Jersey.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) officially clinched the White Jersey over Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) today, but the competition hasn't been in doubt since the end of the mountains.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Sky closed down 8 minutes in the time trial with Richie Porte finishing 5th along with Wiggins and Froome, but it wasn't enough to overtake RSNT for the team title.

Biggest surprise: Tejay van Garderen caught Cadel Evans on the course. Van Garderen and Evans started three minutes apart but Evans was awful in the early part of the course allowing van Garderen to catch his team leader in a big surprise.

Biggest disappointment: Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) and Tony Martin (OPQS) were not here, having long since abandoned the race. It would have been nice to see these two challenge Wiggins and Froome in the time trial after three weeks of racing as one of them has often won the final time trial in recent years.

What is coming tomorrow? Sprint battle royale on the Champs-Elysses.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish 2. Andre Greipel 3. Matt Goss

Jul 18, 2012

Tour de France Stage 16 Review - Voeckler wins again as Sky suffocates race


Today's stage: Big mountains and a major GC battle. Descent finish.

Who won today's stage? Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) went into the breakaway looking for King of the Mountains points. He got a bunch of those and then dropped his companions one by one over the climbs until going solo on the final climb and descending home for his second stage win of this year's Tour.

What matters in the GC race? No changes in the podium. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) attacked three separate times out of the GC group and shed everyone, except the two guys he needed to shed: leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and his second place domestique Chris Froome. Most notably behind, Cadel Evans (BMC) was dropped on both of the final two climbs and lost over 4 minutes. He will remain in the top 10 as Janez Brajkovic (Astana), Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) and Pierre Rolland (Europcar) were all dropped by the second GC group led by Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol). Van den Broeck is now 4th overall followed by Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT), Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) and Evans.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – No changes, but that doesn't matter. As long as Peter Sagan (Liquigas) remains in the race, he will win this category.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Voeckler was in the break for the KoM points, and he got enough of them to take the lead from Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana). The lead is only four points though with another huge mountain stage tomorrow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – With Pinot dropped, Tejay Van Garderen (BMC) made his lead nearly insurmountable unless he explodes tomorrow. Still, this is a head to head battle.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Even without Frank Schleck (out of the Tour after doping positive), RSNT extended its lead in the team competition. They now lead Sky by over 17 minutes and look likely to extend that lead again tomorrow before surrendering at least some of the lead back to Sky on the Saturday time trial.

Biggest surprise: The GC attacks were saved for the end. The big climbs of the Aubisque and the Tourmalet were early, possibly too early for an attack given the strength of Team Sky. Still, it was a surprise that nobody tried anything on the Col du Aspin to try and shed some Sky domestiques as there were so many remaining on the Aspin that there was no hope of dropping the Sky leadership on the final climb.

Biggest disappointment: Nibali couldn't make any of his attacks stick. Everybody else either didn't have the legs or had no desire to go. Nibali has obviously been one of the strongest guys in this race, but he has had no help in his attacks to stop the Sky train and today was no exception.

Other items of note: The breakaway today started as a ridiculous 38 riders. Expect the same tomorrow has Sky has no real reason to chase any breaks at this point in the race... There was no obvious on road fall out after the Frank Schleck positive test other than Schleck not being on the road... With Voeckler's win, he became the first non-Sprint double stage winner of the Tour this year. I suspect Bradley Wiggins will join him in the time trial on Saturday (especially with Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin no longer in the race)

What is coming tomorrow? Another short climbing stage like the one to La Toussuire. This one also has a summit finish and is the last chance to remake the GC before the time trial on Saturday.

Tomorrow's prediction: Don't ask me. Sky lets breakaways go everyday and predicting that correctly is like trying to win a roulette with one number.

Jul 17, 2012

Tour de France Second Rest day questions


1 Will Chris Froome attack his teammate?
This is the ultimate question of the Tour. Froome has spoken about wanting to be supported next year to win the Tour and how he could have possibly won this Tour if given a chance (and no puncture causing him to lose time on stage 1). Still, Froome is in second place and has looked like the strongest rider in the race in nearly every mountain stage so far. Also, given the dig he put in on the road to La Toussuire, it seems the only way overall leader (and Froome teammate) Bradley Wiggins can be dropped is either by Froome himself or by Vincenzo Nibali dropping Wiggins and Froome not helping him chase back.

2 Does Nibali have a chance?
Tomorrow's crazy mountain stage (seriously, this thing looks like it was lifted from the Giro instead of being a Tour stage) finishes on a descent. This is preferred for Nibali as if he attacks and gets a gap on the climb, he will never be seen again on the stage (whereas the GC seemed designed for Bradley Wiggins this yer, this stage seems designed specifically for Nibali and the injured and withdrawn Samuel Sanchez). That said, he needs to have two amazing days in a row and also not tow Froome with him if he manages to drop Wiggins. He will give it a go and possibly win one of the next two mountain stages, but it won't be enough with that crazy long time trial sitting there on Saturday.

3 Will BMC work for Evans or Van Garderen?
So Tejay van Garderen is 7th overall and has looked stronger than defending champion Cadel Evans ever since the beginning of the La Toussuire stage. Still, Evans is the defending champion and sits 4th overall. Which one they work for depends on who has the legs though a tactic of sending Van Garderen on the attack on the Tourmalet tomorrow to see what happens might be a good idea. It would eliminate the who are they working for question and it could cause Sky to have to do some work earlier than they would like.

4 How good is Peter Sagan?
Sagan has the Green Jersey locked up and nearly won a mountain stage the other day. Considering he is only 22, how good can he be? First off, I don't think he is a Grand Tour winner. His time trialing isn't good enough considering he would be more of a diesel climber type and those guys either need a great team (which he likely won't have given his classics needs for teammates) or need to have an elite time trial. Still, Sagan is the type of guy who could win all five monuments. With his sprint, he is a threat in any climby monument as he doesn't have to solo home like so many others. He is also a threat to the points jersey in any race he enters, especially since he can gather points in the mountains, something most sprinters can't do (remember that I said Mark Cavendish should have tried to go into a breakaway at the Giro to search for points but just couldn't do it). When his career is over, I think Sagan will have won all five monuments, at least one world championship, a few week long stage races and probably a top 10 in a Grand Tour as well.

5 Who in the top 10 will crack and suffer greatly?
The most likely to crack is Thibult Pinot. Pinot has already cracked twice in this race, but Thursday looks particularly menacing for him. The reason: he hasn't climbed well on consecutive days. He was average at best on stage 7 and then was terrible on stage 12 (but lucky that stage went to a huge breakaway after the early climbs). Stage 17, with a tough climbing day after the absurd day on Wednesday looks bad for Pinot.

Bonus question: What to make of the Frank Schleck positive?
For those who don't know, Frank Schleck tested positive for a diretic that, while not explicitly illegal, is certainly in a gray area of doping. He left the race and we'll see what happens next. Still, it is another blow in a nightmare of a season for his RSNT team. If not for Fabian Cancellara, there is a good chance this team would get relegated from the Pro Tour (if it even exists after this season). The whole thing has been a nightmare and it brings into question his previous results and the results of his brother Andy. Just not good for anyone involved, even though there is a good chance he will avoid suspension.

Jul 15, 2012

Tour de France Stage 14 Review - Sanchez finaly gets his stage as tacks neutralize the race behind him


Today's stage: More mountains, but again too far from the finish to matter for the GC battle to really explode.

Who won today's stage? Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) has been desperate for a stage win and has been in numerous breakaways. Yesterday, he attacked in the final kilometers and looked like he was going to get away until the yellow jersey reeled him in to set up a sprint finish. Today, he got in the breakaway and attacked late to drop Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and take the stage. Sagan ended up second on this, a mountain stage.

What matters in the GC race? No changes, but that doesn't tell the story at all. At one point, Cadel Evans was over 2 minutes behind because of a puncture, but the puncture was caused by an idiot who threw tacks on the road near the top of the final climb. Evans and much of his BMC team were caught by it as were many other riders. Overall leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) neutralized the race because of the tacks and allowed Evans and his team to chase back on once the attacking Pierre Rolland (Europcar), who opportunistically attacked, was brought back by the teams of 3rd place Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and 5th place Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – For all intents and purposes, the Green Jersey was won today. Sagan won the intermediate sprint and then finished second on the stage giving him a lead of nearly 100 points over Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol). Former second place Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) trails Greipel by 30 points.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – There were no threats to the Polka Dot jersey in the breakaway so no changes at the top. Leader Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) did get 3 points on the early category 2 climb before the breakaway formed to extend his lead over Rolland to 14 points.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here either. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ).
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Despite the puncture drama and the breakaway winning by over 18 minutes because of it, there were no changes at the top of this classification. RSNT still leads Team Sky by over 12 minutes.

Biggest surprise: Saga got himself over the mountains with a chance to win the stage. Earlier in the Tour, his team director said he is a potential future Grand Tour winner. And everyone laughed. While that still seems unlikely, his performance today in the mountains portends better things in the mountains than most have thought he could do.

Biggest disappointment: Rolland attacked when he did. There were tacks in the road causing flats and Rolland attacked. Normally, that is fine, but with other contenders punctured because of nefarious happenings and not normal racing, etiquette is to not attack (like Wiggins and Team Sky).

Other items of note: Like Garmin with David Milar, Rabobank's Tour is saved with the win from Sanchez. Rabobank is down to four riders and they had two in the breakaway. Former 3rd GC option Steven Kruiswijk finished 10th after helping Sanchez early on. With a stage win, Rabobank has salvaged something out of this Tour were they were destroyed in the Stage 6 crash with Garmin and Vacansoleil. Now, only Vacansoleil needs a stage win...With the tacks, over 30 riders punctured between the top of the climb and the descent and Robert Kiserlovski (Astana) abandoned with a wrist injury after faling because of his puncture. Just ridiculous...

What is coming tomorrow? The annual stage to Pau, at the foot of the Pyrenees (it may not be every year, it just seems like it). Tomorrow is a possible sprint finish as the only climbs are two category 4's and a category 3.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Peter Sagan (Liquigas)

Jul 12, 2012

Tour de France Stage 11 Review - And there will be a new champion


Today's stage: Big, nasty mountain stage with the only Alpine summit finish. For those who wish to attack leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky), this was the first obvious day to do it.

Who won today's stage? Pierre Rolland (Europcar) got in the early breakaway and then attacked up the final climb to La Toussuire to take his second career stage win (he won on Alpe d'Huez last year). If that sounds familiar, it is because the strategy was similar to how his teammate Thomas Voeckler won yesterday's stage.

What matters in the GC race? Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) cracked against the tempo of Team Sky while they were chasing Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) after his attack. The two Team Sky riders (Wiggins and Froome) now sit 1-2 overall with Nibali 3rd and Evans 4th. Further back, the rest of the top 10 was remade as Denis Menchov (Katusha) was nowhere to be found amongst the leaders (this is normal but he didn't manage to ninja himself into the final group this time) and Maxime Monfort (RSNT) was never seen after the early climbs either. Behind Evans, the new top 10 includes Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol), Haimar Zubeldia (RSNT), Tejay van Garderen (BMC), Janez Brajkovic (Astana), Rolland and Thibaut Pinot (FDJ).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Points? For sprinters? On this stage? Surely you jest. Same scores as yesterday. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) leads Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 232-205. Tomorrow brings as opportunity for more points if there is any climbing ability at all in those legs. There are two category 1 climbs, but then a long flat area before the intermediate sprint and a possible sprint finish as well.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) was in the breakaway today and took a boatload of points. In the process he regained the King of the Mountains jersey that he lost yesterday to Thomas Voeckler (Europcar). Voeckler's teammate Pierre Rolland is now second and Chris Anker Sorenson (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) is now third.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) exploded today along with Menchov and Monfort. That leaves just two men realistically contesting this category. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads, but his lead over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ) was shaved down to 1' 54” after van Garderen has to stay back and help pace the cracked Evans up the final climb.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT with its ensemble cast of Grand Tour experience and ex-GC contenders now has a strangle hold on this as a different three riders finish in the top 15 of a stage every day. For 2nd place Sky, this isn't really a goal and being 1-2 on the podium is much more importat.

Biggest surprise: Froome attacked, ever so briefly. On the final climb of the day, Nibali had attacked twice and the resulting chase had cracked Evans. Then, in a fit of enthusiasm, Froome attacked. Everybody followed, except Froome's team leader Wiggins. Then his team manager yelled at thim on the radio and Froome backed off.
Non-Froome category, it would be all the big names in the early breakaway. There were 31 riders in the breakaway and it read like a who's who of former GC contenders, fading stars and injured riders. This group at one point included Valverde, Scarponi, Basso, Leipheimer, and Gesink along with scores of others and the eventual stage winner Rolland.

Biggest disappointment: Froome didn't keep the hammer down and make this race, even one between two teammates. It is obvious now that Froome is better in the mountains (just as he was at the Vuelta last year when he went from domestique to 2nd overall, beating Wiggins) and Wiggins is better in the time trial. Still, I wish Froome has continued to attack. It would have taken some of the air of inevitability out of the race.
Non-Froome category, nobody cracked the Team Sky train. This was as weak as they have looked all race, but nobody cracked Sky and now they will get to ride all the way to the Pyrenees mostly unencumbered by attacks that will bother them.

Other items of note: Prologue and first week yellow jersey wearer Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) abandoned the race today to go home and be with his pregnant wife who is expecting their second child this month... Also abandoning today were Mark Renshaw (Rabobank), Bauke Mollema (Rabobank) and Lieuwe Westra (Vacansoleil), all of whom were involved in that crazy crash on stage 6...Seven riders missed the time cut today and are out of the race. Most notable is Italian sprinter Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre).

What is coming tomorrow? Some early high mountains followed by a long flat drag and a late category 3 before a possible sprint, if the sprinters are there and no breakaway is gone.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) 2. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 3. JJ Haedo (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff)

Jul 10, 2012

Tour de France Rest Day Thoughts


1 Is the race already over?
So dominant were Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome of Team Sky both at Les Planche des Filles and at the first Individual Time Trial at Besancon that some are ready to anoint Wiggins the Tour champion. While I won't go that far without having seen a high mountain stage yet in this year's Tour, I think the chances are greater than 80% that Wiggins wins at this point because there is an even longer time trial waiting after the mountains. Given that Cadel Evans (BMC) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) need to take at least three minutes and probably four from their current positions to have a chance in the final time trial. That is unlikely even with all the mountain stages. The most likely way for Wiggins to not win at this point is for him to crack badly. If he does, the most likely winner seems to be Froome, who looks to be in the best climbing form of everyone.

2 So this is basically a Lance Armstrong tour all over again isn't it?
For those who don't know, Lance Armstrong (whether he is guilty of doping or not) used to win or get close to the yellow jersey in the prologue time trial, rely on his train of super domestiques that all were capable of top 10 or even top 5 placements if they were on other teams to pace him up the mountains, then attack on the final climb against a tired peloton to gap whoever might be left. This looks really familiar with the only major difference that Froome is better than any of Armstrong's lieutenants (with the possible exception of Levi Leipheimer). Of course given the dominance of Team Sky, much of the internet has been asking if this is like Lance's US Postal Blue Train in other ways as well...

3 … Can this possibly be clean riding by Sky? This is cycling after all.
Is it clean? I think so, but I am not overly confident. The circumstantial evidence seems bad, but nobody for Sky has failed a test in a time where the testing has been beefed up to new levels that weren't there when Lance's doped up team was pacing him up the mountains (no matter the opinion of Lance himself, his team included serial dopers Heras, Landis and Hamilton along with Leipheimer, VandeVelde and Hincapie who are all in the same did he or didn't he limbo that Lance is in from that era). As for that circumstantial evidence, Wiggins suddenly jumped quite a few level after a terrible first year with Team Sky. Yes, he had a 4th place in the Tour with Garmin in 2009, but his 2010 results reverted to his previous level and there are plenty of cases in cycling history where everything came together in one huge effort that was career defining in a Grand Tour (see Peter Velits podium in 2010 Vuelta a Espana, Bobby Julich finishing 3rd in the 1998 Tour de France and even JJ Cobo's Vuelta win last season in addition to the legion of Italians who have never done a thing outside of the Giro d'Italia no matter how much they talked about and targeted other races). Then 2011 came and Wiggins won the pre-Tour warm up Dauphine (he did so again this season) before crashing out of the Tour and finishing 3rd while not having his best form in the Vuelta. Still, nothing suggested he was about to destroy the field. On the other hand, his teammate Froome came from literally nowhere to finish second in the Vuelta and the only guy to beat them was racing for the spiritual successor team of one of the largest doping rings in cycling history (Geox was run by people who were involved with Saunier-Duval, Ricco's team in the 2008 Tour de Farce, and before that Liberty Seguros, who had half the team thrown out on the eve of the 2005 Tour for doping violations). Then in this Tour, Wiggins and Froome seems to be peaking for all the big days. If nothing else it looks suspicious, especially in this sport. I want to believe they're clean and I think they are, but it is at least a bit troubling.

4 So what is everyone else to do?
For Evans and Nibali, a strategic alliance needs to be made. Obviously, their best chance is on descents. They need to attack together and work together. If one of them attacks, the other needs to not chase, forcing Team Sky to chase. As soon as Team Sky bridges back, the other needs to attack. Since nobody else who is close really has attack capability, these two have to do it themselves and they have to start quickly. If done right, at least they can bring some suspense to the time trial. If not, they will earn the respect of cycling fans everywhere for going down swinging instead of meekly. And in Nibali's case, we have seen him in a similar situation. He attacked on downhills early and often against Contador in the 2011 Giro d'Italia, trying to win it on the road. It cost him second to Michele Scarponi ultimately, but fans respected his efforts.

5 Is this a bad thing for the sport?
No, as long as Team Sky is racing clean. The Tour has never been the most exciting race in the world (the Team Sky train through mountains and win in time trials with the elite time trialer has been the preferred mode of victory for Indurain, Armstrong and Ullrich – 13 or the last 20 years). The last few years have been total aberrations in recent Tour history owing partially to Contador either being excluded or emptying the tank in the hardest climbing race ever (2011 Giro) and a lack of time trial kilometers (the last five years have seen the five fewest numbers of time trial kilometers since the time trial was introduced to the Tour). Many fans like dominance and will come around on Wiggins as long as he is clean. And those that love suspenseful racing can go back to watching the Giro and Vuelta like they should have been all along.

Jul 9, 2012

Tour de France Stage 9 - Wiggins wins the stage and possibly the whole race


Today's stage: Time trial. Long enough to create big time gaps. More torment for pure climbers, most of who got smoked in the stage 6 supercrash.

Who won today's stage? Overall leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) won the stage beating teammate Chris Froome by 32 seconds. Prologue TT winner Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) was third.

What matters in the GC race? Wiggins now has a huge lead overall for this stage of the race. He leads defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) by 1' 53”, his teammate Froome by 2' 07” and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) by 2' 23”. Everybody else is over 3 minutes behind and likely has no chance at all of catching Wiggins.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – None of the top guys in this category are time trial specialists, so none scored any points today. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) still leads and will for quite some time as this category lies relatively dormant for awhile with high mountains coming.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No changes with a time trial. Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) still leads.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) rode an excellent time trial finishing 4th overall and retaking the white jersey from Rein Taaramae (Cofidis). Van Garderen leads Taaramae by 42' and Tony Gallopin (RSNT) by 45'.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT is the leader for a second straight day leading Team Sky by 1' 25”.

Biggest surprise: Froome. While he beat Wiggins in the time trial at the Vuelta last year, that was the Vuelta and Tony Martin won that stage. Today, Froome beat everyone except his teammate Wiggins in a huge shock. The biggest shock there would be that Froome also beat Cancellara.

Biggest disappointment: Wiggins has such a huge lead. Considering his train to see him through the mountains, it will be difficult to do anything to stop this from becoming a Wiggins procession to Paris to collect the final yellow jersey. It is US Postal and Lance Armstrong suck the life out of the race style riding all over again.

Other items of note: Poor Tony Martin (OPQS). The World Champion has had an awful race. He punctured in the prologue, broke his hand in a crash on stage 1 and then punctured again today. Even with the puncture and the broken hand, Martin still finished 12th today... Other than Wiggins and Froome, Team Sky slow pedaled through the time trial, conserving energy to help Wiggins later. Michael Rogers is a former World Champion in the time trial and finished 27th. Edvald Boasson Hagen is the Norwegian time trial champion. He finished 92nd. Richie Porte is among the top 10 time trialers in the world normally. He finished 95th.

What is coming tomorrow? Rest day followed by high mountains, kind of. The next stage includes the first beyond category climb: Grand du Colombier, but it is in the middle of the stage and the stage finishes much like yesterday with a descent and flat run in.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Alexandre Vinokourov (Astana) 2. Jeremy Roy (FDJ) 3. Chris Horner (RSNT)

Jul 8, 2012

Tour de France Stage 8 - Breakaway success, finally


Today's stage: A true medium mountain stage. Seven climbs (only the final climb a category 1) and not a summit finish meant possible breakaway.

Who won today's stage? 22-year old Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) was the only breakaway survivor holding off the favorites and breakaway mate Tony Gallopin (RSNT) by 26 seconds to take his first career stage win.

What matters in the GC race? The top three remain unchanged. It's Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) in the yellow jersey followed by Cadel Evans (BMC) and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). Former 4th place Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) didn't recover well after emptying the tank yesterday and dropped time today. He now trails by over 2 minutes. Other than the leaders, Denis Menchov (Katusha) and Haimar Zubledia (RSNT) are the only ones who remain within a minute of the lead.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – With the intermediate sprint points after five climbs with two more to go, the sprinters were shed early especially with a lot of attacks being unleashed by stage hunters all day long.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Some of the stage hunters today were not really stage hunters. They were looking for spots. The result was a new leader, Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana), who leads former lead Chris Froome (Team Sky) by a point. This category will most likely go to a fringe GC contender in the end, someone finishing in the bottom of the top 10 who is there on all the climbs but not able take the time needed to get back into the race.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – While Taaramae lost time GC and here, he still leads this competition. Still, it is by only 46 seconds over Gallopin and 1' 14” over stage-winner Pinot.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – And finally Sky is rid of the yellow helmets. Those ugly, horrifying things pass on to RSNT tomorrow as that team now leads by nearly three minutes after the 3rd Sky rider finished nearly five minutes behind on today's stage.

Biggest surprise: Only one breakaway rider was able to survive. This day looked like a breakaway festival and the peloton agreed with 20 riders getting into the initial breakaway. Still, only one man survived to beat the GC favorites group to the finish with one other finishing in the favorites group.

Biggest disappointment: No time gaps. If the breakaway didn't survive, it was because of possible attacks from the GC men. That didn't really happen as the GC men just grinded down everyone else until there was a small, select group remaining.

Other items of note: There was another abandonment because of a crash and it was a big one. Defending Olympic champion and Euskatel leader Samuel Sanchez was forced to abandon and, more important than his Tour de France campaign, his ability to ride in the Olympics and defend his title is in serious doubt... In the team abandonment sections, Euskatel and Garmin-Sharp have been decimated. Euskatel is down to five riders and Garmin six with neither of them having any threat to the top 40 in the race. The highest placed Garmin rider is Dan Martin in 69th place while the highest placed Euskatel rider is Jorge Azanza in 78th place... In the other race going, Jakob Fuglsang (RSNT) finished off his win in the Tour of Austria today. It is a big win for Fuglsang, a rider soon to be leaving RSNT for some other team in the offseason.

What is coming tomorrow? Time trial. The day when Wiggins and Evans assert their authority even more so, at least that is the pre-race script.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) 2. Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) 3. Cadel Evans (BMC)

Jul 7, 2012

Tour de France Stage 7 - Team Sky blows the race up in the mountains


Today's stage: The first mountain of the race atop a very difficult category 1 climb.

Who won today's stage? Chris Froome (Team Sky) helped his teammate Bradley Wiggins shed most of his rivals and then had enough left in the tank to win the stage himself by two seconds over Cadel Evans (BMC) and Wiggins.

What matters in the GC race? As expected, we have a new GC leader as the stage finale did not suit the talents of former leader Fabian Cancellara (RSNT). That leader is Wiggins, who was 3rd on the stage and inherits the yellow jersey. In second is Evans, 10 seconds behind and Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) is 3rd, 16 seconds behind. Considering that Wiggins and Evans were the pre-race favorites and Nibali was the top darkhorse, this is, in all likelihood a 3 man race from here.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) scored points in the intermediate sprint after a botched day by Matt Goss and his Orica-GreenEdge team. The Sagan lead is 32 points over Goss with neither likely to score any more soon with more mountains and a time trial over the next few days
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With the cache of points available at the summit, the stage winner was destined to take the jersey, therefore stage winner Froome is the current leader.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rein Taaramae (Cofidis) was in the front group at the end with Froome, Evans, Wiggins and Nibali. He moved up to 4th overall and leads the white jersey competition by 2' 37” over Tejay Van Garderen (BMC), who was dropped early.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Sky gets to keep the ugly yellow helmets as the leaders here. With Froome and Wiggins placing so high, this was easy for Sky. They now lead RSNT by 1' 37”.

Biggest surprise: Froome's attack to win the stage though maybe it shouldn't be so surprising. At this point I wonder if Sky management didn't have Froome lose time intentionally early on to avoid another Vuelta situation. Today looked a lot like the Vuelta last year when Wiggins was the protected rider and Froome was the better rider. The difference is that Froome is over a minute behind whereas last year he beat Wiggins and finished second overall. Still, it was a surprise to see the pacemaker at the end have the energy to kick and win the stage that way.

Biggest disappointment: Team Sky dominated. This looked like Lance Armstrong's US Postal train all over again and if this continues Bradley Wiggins will likely win the race overall no matter what anyone else does. Additionally, no other team had anyone with their leaders on the climb making it even easier for Team Sky.

Other items of note: The abandonment list after yesterday's crash lengthened considerably. Most notable among the abondments was Garmin-Sharp leader and Giro'dItalia champion Ryder Hesjedal after finishing 13 minutes down yesterday... The three Rabobank GC hopes all lost more time today. Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink and Steven Kruiswijk will all be stage hunters now.

What is coming tomorrow? More mountains, kind of. Tomorrow brings seven climbs as the race heads into Switzerland and they get progressively harder as the day goes on starting with a category 4, then a category 3, four category 2's and a category 1 followed by a descent finish. Looks like a day for a breakaway.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS) 2. Sandy Casar (FDJ) 3. Alexander Vinokourov (Astana)

Jul 2, 2012

Tour de France Burning Questions - Stage 2


No that burning is no the yellow helmets for the leaders of the team classification. More on that later.

1 What is Fabian Cancellara's role in animating this race?
Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) is in an interesting place. He is not a high mountain climber. He is a major time trial threat in a race with a lot of time trial kms. He is also the leader of the race. And he's racing on a team that seems to be in total disarray, at least as far as GC is concerned. While Cancellara is not the GC leader of his team, he is in 3rd place in the points competition and could score more tomorrow with a similar finish to stage 1 where he was 2nd. If that happens again and with the time trial, is it possible Cancellara and his RSNT team mount a point assault? It could happen, especially if the sprinters start trying to conserve energy for the Olympics and don't contest all of week 2's sprint checkpoints.

2 What is the impact of these classic-like stages we have been seeing over the last few years?
Both Stages 1 and 3 look and act more like classics than normal stage race stages. Last year had a couple of these classic-like short climb finishes and 2010 had a Paris-Roubaix like cobblestone stage. The impact on the race has been positive. For one thing, the entire first week is no longer a procession of sprints. While there is a place for sprints and a lot of them, it's bad when sprints are every day of the first week as they often can be when the parcours are unimaginative. At the very least, these stages make a breakaway a possibility instead of a doomed exercise in suffering for those involved. It also can upend the GC at least a bit giving us more of a pecking order and that is needed with no time bonuses to separate matters any longer. For examples on GC, just look at the Paris-Roubaix stage in 2010 where Cancellara drove Andy Schleck to a time gain that helped Schleck immensely in his tour bid (that was ultimately doomed by Chain-gate then given to Schleck because of Contador's doping DQ). This year already, Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) and Chris Horner (RSNT) were caught out yesterday on Stage 1 and lost time. If nothing else, the pretenders are eliminated early and turned into stage hunters well before they normally would be. I have no problem with that.

3 Are the overall contenders going to attack tomorrow?
The non-time trial men among the overall contenders need to gain time somewhere, even if it's only a few second here and there. With 5 short categorized climbs compressed at the end of the route tomorrow, it seems like a good day to attack if the legs are good, especially with a few days of sprinting upcoming. Still, with the exception of Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and Samuel Sanchez (Euskatel), none of the overall contenders that lack high end time trial skills are know for their big attacks. It makes me wonder if there is going to be a GC staring contest while the breakaway rides up the road and takes the stage win (this result would surely anger current yellow jersey Fabian Cancellara).

4 Given that the Team Time Trial is normally around this time, which contenders will miss it and which are glad it's gone?
Chief among those who will miss it is Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp). His team's early TTT success helped move him into the GC contenders at his Giro d'Italia win in May and the Garmin team has made TTT success a hallmark of what they have done since the squad was formed. Cadel Evans (BMC) will also miss the TTT in part because his team has a couple of other strong TT'ers on it.
Among those who are happy to see it not included are Samuel Sanchez (Euskatel). Sanchez rides on a team that is, at best, allergic to time trialing (seriously, being a Basque climber generally means riding a good time trial is against team regulations). For the first time in a long time, Sanchez isn't starting with a 2 minute disadvantage on GC.

5 Can we get rid of the awful yellow helmets already?
Seriously, these things are crimes against fashion and humanity. Can we get rid of them before a team like Lampre gets a hold of them, please. Just imagine the pain that would cause the eyes. As for so far, here is Team Sky wearing them. They aren't so bad there, at least in comparison to what could happen. **shudders**

Jun 30, 2012

Tour de France Daily – Cancellara confirms his short TT dominance... again


Today's stage: A short prologue to start the Tour de France, the most important cycling race there is, in Liege, Belgium.

Who won today's stage? Fabian Cancellara (RadioShack-Nissan-Trek forever abbreviated RSNT) destroyed the field winning by seven seconds over just 6.4km.

What matters in the GC race? Cancellara does take the yellow jersey, but he often has the yellow jersey early in the race (today is his 22nd yellow jersey of his career and he has held the jersey in 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2010) before ceding it to the overall contenders when the high mountains start. Among the overall contenders, Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) is the leader after finishing second on the brief stage. Former Giro d'Italia and Vuelta a Espana winner Denis Menchov (Katusha) is 8th overall, defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) is 13th, 2010 Vuelta winner Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) is 14th and reigning Giro d'Italia champion Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Sharp, note the team name change from Garmin-Barracuda since the Giro in May) is 15th.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Cancellara leads the competition, but he will be wearing yellow tomorrow. Wiggins will wear the Green jersey. Among the actual contenders, none scored any points and thus this will go to tomorrow to begins forming a pecking order.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No points available in a time trial. Tomorrow will see this jersey awarded for the first time with four category four climbs on the parcours tomorrow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) rode a scorching TT finishing 4th overall on the stage and beating Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) for the white jersey by 1 second.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Team Sky with Wiggins 2nd and Boasson Hagen 5th leads this early over RSNT who were carried by Cancellara's great ride.

Biggest surprise: Sylvain Chavanel (Omega-Pharma QuickStep, herefore OPQS) is the national time trial champion of France. Still, it is a surprise that he finished 3rd today and led for quite some time. A great ride by him and maybe a sign his form has returned to where it was two years ago when he won two stages and held the yellow jersey on two separate occasions early in the race.

Biggest disappointment: David Zabriskie (Garmin-Sharp) is the US time trial champion. He has won the prologue in the Tour de France before (2005 over Lance Armstrong). Today, he finished 68th. Not the result he was looking for after his second place overall finish at the Tour of California.

Other items of note: World time trial champion Tony Martin (OPQS) finished 45th on the stage, but it was because he flatted during the stage and lost 20-25 seconds because of it. Considering he finished 25 seconds to Cancellara, it would have been close between the two dominant time trial riders in the peloton... Other than Hesjedal, riders who raced the Giro d'Italia struggled. In particular Michele Scarponi (Lampre-ISD) finished 129th and is already in some trouble here at this Tour.

What is coming tomorrow? Hills, lots of them, but not big. The stage is in Ardennes country in the region where Fleche-Wallonne and Liege-Bastogne-Liege take place. Tomorrow there are category four hills and it isn't a big sprinter day with the finish a classics-like 1km uphill finish. With that finish, there could be some attacks by GC riders looking to start taking time from Wiggins considering the time trials to come.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Philippe Gilbert (BMC). 2. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). 3. Robert Gesink (Rabobank)