Showing posts with label Peter Sagan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Peter Sagan. Show all posts

Jul 22, 2012

Tour de France Final Review - Cavendish and Wiggins cap celebration of British Cycling


Today's stage: A sprint battle royale on the Champs-Elysses to finish the Tour de France.

Who won today's stage? Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) won the final sprint for a record 4th year in a row, taking his third stage win of the Tour to match Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol). The win also gave Cavendish the record for career Tour de France stage wins by a sprinter.

What matters in the GC race? Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) finished to win the Tour de France. He is the first British rider to win the Tour. As a side note, Team Sky was formed three years ago with the goal of having a British Tour de France champion by 2015. Objective achieved. Also, Wiggins has completed the greatest stage race season ever having won Paris-Nice, the Tour of Romandie and the Criterium du Dauphine. Second place was Chris Froome (Team Sky) and third place and on the final podium was Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) did his green jersey proud by finishing second on the stage today behind Cavendish. Sagan was by far the strongest rider among those that really contested the jersey.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Thomas Voeckler (Europcar) won this jersey with his two mountain stage victories after the two rest days.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) ended up winning by over 6 minutes. Next up for him are the August stage race in the United States.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – RSNT won the team competition, it's biggest objective with no GC contender on the roster after Andy Schleck's injury before the Tour de France.

Biggest surprise of the entire race: Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) wasn't supposed to race the Tour de France. Too young (youngest rider in the race) and too inexperienced (no Grand Tours, these guys usually race at least one Vuelta or Giro before getting a shot at the Tour). But Pinot lobbied for the final team spot after an injury occurred and he made it pay off. A stage win and a top 10 overall finish for a Frenchman is incredible. Along with Pierre Rolland (Europcar), French cycling finally has a future other than stage hunters again.

Biggest disappointment of the entire race: Nobody ever really challenged Sky. Early on, Team Sky just rode at the front and let the crashes behind kill off their rivals (looks at Garmin and Rabobank's tattered remains after stage 6). Then they pounced in the mountains (Jurgen Van Den Broeck did puncture right before the start of the climb on stage 7, costing him over two minutes), killing everyone except Vincenzo Nibali off easily at some point during the race. As for Nibali, he had no help at all. Liquigas has little mountains support and all of it was tired and off-form after racing very hard to control the race (futilely I add) in the Giro. Eventually, he tired as well and no matter he was never going to take the necessary time to avoid being smoked in the time trials by the specialists.

Other items of note: For teams, the stage win breakdown is as follows: Team Sky, 6 (Cavendish, 3; Wiggins, 2; Froome, 1); Liquigas, 3 (All Sagan); Lotto-Belisol, 3 (All Greipel); Europcar, 3 (Voeckler, 2; Rolland, 1); FDJ, 2 (Pinot, 1; Fedrigo, 1); RSNT, 1 (Cancellara); Movistar, 1 (Valverde); Rabobank, 1 (Sanchez); Garmin, 1 (Millar)... The Super-Combative Prize for most aggressive rider of the whole Tor went to Chris Anker Sorenson (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff). Sorenson was in a multitude of breakaways searching for either a stage win or King of the Mountain points. He ended up third in the KoM and 14th overall.

What is coming next for the peloton? Next up for many are the Olympics. The Road Race is on Saturday (I will be in London for the festivities) and the Time Trial on Thursday the week after that. From there, it's back to the normal schedule. For the American riders and teams, that means prep for the USAPCC. For everyone else, that means relax time or get ready for the Vuelta and World Championships. The Vuelta, and the return of Contador is less than four week away.

Jul 17, 2012

Tour de France Second Rest day questions


1 Will Chris Froome attack his teammate?
This is the ultimate question of the Tour. Froome has spoken about wanting to be supported next year to win the Tour and how he could have possibly won this Tour if given a chance (and no puncture causing him to lose time on stage 1). Still, Froome is in second place and has looked like the strongest rider in the race in nearly every mountain stage so far. Also, given the dig he put in on the road to La Toussuire, it seems the only way overall leader (and Froome teammate) Bradley Wiggins can be dropped is either by Froome himself or by Vincenzo Nibali dropping Wiggins and Froome not helping him chase back.

2 Does Nibali have a chance?
Tomorrow's crazy mountain stage (seriously, this thing looks like it was lifted from the Giro instead of being a Tour stage) finishes on a descent. This is preferred for Nibali as if he attacks and gets a gap on the climb, he will never be seen again on the stage (whereas the GC seemed designed for Bradley Wiggins this yer, this stage seems designed specifically for Nibali and the injured and withdrawn Samuel Sanchez). That said, he needs to have two amazing days in a row and also not tow Froome with him if he manages to drop Wiggins. He will give it a go and possibly win one of the next two mountain stages, but it won't be enough with that crazy long time trial sitting there on Saturday.

3 Will BMC work for Evans or Van Garderen?
So Tejay van Garderen is 7th overall and has looked stronger than defending champion Cadel Evans ever since the beginning of the La Toussuire stage. Still, Evans is the defending champion and sits 4th overall. Which one they work for depends on who has the legs though a tactic of sending Van Garderen on the attack on the Tourmalet tomorrow to see what happens might be a good idea. It would eliminate the who are they working for question and it could cause Sky to have to do some work earlier than they would like.

4 How good is Peter Sagan?
Sagan has the Green Jersey locked up and nearly won a mountain stage the other day. Considering he is only 22, how good can he be? First off, I don't think he is a Grand Tour winner. His time trialing isn't good enough considering he would be more of a diesel climber type and those guys either need a great team (which he likely won't have given his classics needs for teammates) or need to have an elite time trial. Still, Sagan is the type of guy who could win all five monuments. With his sprint, he is a threat in any climby monument as he doesn't have to solo home like so many others. He is also a threat to the points jersey in any race he enters, especially since he can gather points in the mountains, something most sprinters can't do (remember that I said Mark Cavendish should have tried to go into a breakaway at the Giro to search for points but just couldn't do it). When his career is over, I think Sagan will have won all five monuments, at least one world championship, a few week long stage races and probably a top 10 in a Grand Tour as well.

5 Who in the top 10 will crack and suffer greatly?
The most likely to crack is Thibult Pinot. Pinot has already cracked twice in this race, but Thursday looks particularly menacing for him. The reason: he hasn't climbed well on consecutive days. He was average at best on stage 7 and then was terrible on stage 12 (but lucky that stage went to a huge breakaway after the early climbs). Stage 17, with a tough climbing day after the absurd day on Wednesday looks bad for Pinot.

Bonus question: What to make of the Frank Schleck positive?
For those who don't know, Frank Schleck tested positive for a diretic that, while not explicitly illegal, is certainly in a gray area of doping. He left the race and we'll see what happens next. Still, it is another blow in a nightmare of a season for his RSNT team. If not for Fabian Cancellara, there is a good chance this team would get relegated from the Pro Tour (if it even exists after this season). The whole thing has been a nightmare and it brings into question his previous results and the results of his brother Andy. Just not good for anyone involved, even though there is a good chance he will avoid suspension.

Jul 16, 2012

Tour de France Stage 14 - Another Breakaway Gets Away Before the Mountains Return


Today's stage: A possible sprint before the rest day, unless the breakaway were to get away.

Who won today's stage? Pierrick Fedrigo (FDJ) beat Christian Vande Velde (Garmin-Sharp) in a two-up sprint after the two of them attacked from a six man breakaway that won the stage by over 10 minutes.

What matters in the GC race? No changes. Breakaway and a bunch finish behind it means no changes and a half day of relaxing and restful riding. Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Chris Froome (Team Sky) still lead the field.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – At the intermediate sprint, the Green Jersey was officially conceded to Peter Sagan (Liquigas). Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) and Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) were in the bunch and didn't bother to contest him for the intermediate sprint points.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No changes again. There were only a few points available so Fredrick Kessikoff (Astana) takes the spots into the rest day and then the two major Pyrenees stages that follow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here either. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ).
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – No changes here, that is for the mountains and Time Trials. RSNT still leads Team Sky by over 12 minutes.

Biggest surprise: No sprint today. This day seemed like a day tailor made for sprinters, especially with a rest day tomorrow. Still, there are only four big sprinters left in the race and none of their teams were working. Sagan's Liquigas and Mark Cavendish's Team Sky didn't work for obvious reasons. Lotto-Belisol briefly chased, but backed off when they had no help. And Orica-GreenEdge just didn't bother. I don't blame them since nobody ever helps them whenever they go to the front. Today, they put the onus on others to chase and the others didn't chase.

Biggest disappointment: The final sprint from the breakaway from was... underwhelming. Vande Velde is not a sprinter at all and it showed. Behind the sprint, the four other members of the breakaway were unable to organize and let the race win ride away from them. While Fedrigo was a deserving winner,, he won more by being the guy who played to his strengths tactically.

Other items of note: There was a whole host of abandons in the heat today. The biggest name was Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS)... There was an interesting tactic played by Saxo Bank to get Nikki Sorenson into the break. At the time, the break had five riders and Sorenson was attempting to bridge to it. He was likely not going to succeed until Saxo Bank put the team on the front to chase the break down. The message was clear: either let Sorenson bridge to the break or we will chase you down. The break let Sorenson catch on and then rode away with the stage victory.

What is coming tomorrow? Tomorrow is rest day in Pau, a favorite rest day stop for the Tour de France. After that comes the high mountains. Wednesday's parcours include the massive Col d'Aubisque and the near annual climb over the Col du Tourmalet before finishing on a descent (close enough to the line to matter for once in this Tour) from the Col de Peyresourde.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) 2. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) 3. Chris Froome (Team Sky)

Jul 15, 2012

Tour de France Stage 14 Review - Sanchez finaly gets his stage as tacks neutralize the race behind him


Today's stage: More mountains, but again too far from the finish to matter for the GC battle to really explode.

Who won today's stage? Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) has been desperate for a stage win and has been in numerous breakaways. Yesterday, he attacked in the final kilometers and looked like he was going to get away until the yellow jersey reeled him in to set up a sprint finish. Today, he got in the breakaway and attacked late to drop Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and take the stage. Sagan ended up second on this, a mountain stage.

What matters in the GC race? No changes, but that doesn't tell the story at all. At one point, Cadel Evans was over 2 minutes behind because of a puncture, but the puncture was caused by an idiot who threw tacks on the road near the top of the final climb. Evans and much of his BMC team were caught by it as were many other riders. Overall leader Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) neutralized the race because of the tacks and allowed Evans and his team to chase back on once the attacking Pierre Rolland (Europcar), who opportunistically attacked, was brought back by the teams of 3rd place Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) and 5th place Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – For all intents and purposes, the Green Jersey was won today. Sagan won the intermediate sprint and then finished second on the stage giving him a lead of nearly 100 points over Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol). Former second place Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) trails Greipel by 30 points.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – There were no threats to the Polka Dot jersey in the breakaway so no changes at the top. Leader Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) did get 3 points on the early category 2 climb before the breakaway formed to extend his lead over Rolland to 14 points.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here either. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ).
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Despite the puncture drama and the breakaway winning by over 18 minutes because of it, there were no changes at the top of this classification. RSNT still leads Team Sky by over 12 minutes.

Biggest surprise: Saga got himself over the mountains with a chance to win the stage. Earlier in the Tour, his team director said he is a potential future Grand Tour winner. And everyone laughed. While that still seems unlikely, his performance today in the mountains portends better things in the mountains than most have thought he could do.

Biggest disappointment: Rolland attacked when he did. There were tacks in the road causing flats and Rolland attacked. Normally, that is fine, but with other contenders punctured because of nefarious happenings and not normal racing, etiquette is to not attack (like Wiggins and Team Sky).

Other items of note: Like Garmin with David Milar, Rabobank's Tour is saved with the win from Sanchez. Rabobank is down to four riders and they had two in the breakaway. Former 3rd GC option Steven Kruiswijk finished 10th after helping Sanchez early on. With a stage win, Rabobank has salvaged something out of this Tour were they were destroyed in the Stage 6 crash with Garmin and Vacansoleil. Now, only Vacansoleil needs a stage win...With the tacks, over 30 riders punctured between the top of the climb and the descent and Robert Kiserlovski (Astana) abandoned with a wrist injury after faling because of his puncture. Just ridiculous...

What is coming tomorrow? The annual stage to Pau, at the foot of the Pyrenees (it may not be every year, it just seems like it). Tomorrow is a possible sprint finish as the only climbs are two category 4's and a category 3.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Peter Sagan (Liquigas)

Jul 14, 2012

Tour de France Stage 13 Review - Greipel survives to sprint for victory...again


Today's stage: Another transition stage along the Mediterranean coast, this one expected to end in a sprint.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) got himself over the very difficult cat. 3 climb (it was short but the average gradient was over 10%) in range of the leaders, ws apced back to the group and then beat Peter Sagan (Liquigas) and Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) in the sprint.

What matters in the GC race? No changes. All the top guys finished with the front group while many others were dropped. No changes as the Sky combo of Bradley Wiggins and Chris Froome are still 1-2.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – After Matt Goss' (Orica-GreenEdge) penalty, he was dropped on the climb today. With Sagan finishing second on the stage, this competition is nearly over in favor of Sagan.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – No changes here again with only one climb today. Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana) still leads. Tomorrow has a cat. 2 and two cat. 1's in a possible breakaway stage. This means someone far down on the GC like Kessiakoff could go in the breakaway and get a load of points tomorrow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here either. Tejay van Garderen (BMC) still leads over Thiabult Pinot (FDJ).
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – Considering the top six teams had the same time today, there was no change here. RSNT still leads Team Sky by 12 minutes.

Biggest surprise: Bradley Wiggins on the front of the lead out train. Wiggins is the yellow jersey. It's not often you see him leading out a teammate looking for a stage win and while Edvald Boasson Hagen didn't finish the win off, it was still a nice gesture from Wiggins to give his teammate an opportunity.

Biggest disappointment: Where were the other sprinters? This stage was supposed to be a sprint battle royale in between the mountains, but that climb that Greipel and Sagan got over shed everyone else. Sagan is the best climber among the sprinters so him getting over was expected. But Greipel is an awful climber. If he can get over, everyone else should have managed to be close enough to bridge back as well.

Other items of note: Jurgen Van den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) was also paying back a teammate with some extra work. Van den Broeck sits 5th on GC, but he helped close down a short attack in the final kilometers for his teammate Greipel... Over the next few days, we are likely to see a few more abandonments along the way with more mountains. Tomorrow is a high mountain transitional stage again and Monday is mostly flat Wednesday and Thursday are both beastly stages in the Pyrenees.

What is coming tomorrow? The opposite of yesterday with a similar result. Breakaway will stay away after an early small climb and two late category 1 climbs that are too far to make a difference for the GC riders.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Jeremy Roy (FDJ) 2. Jerome Pineau (OPQS) 3. Fredrik Kessiakoff (Astana)

Jul 6, 2012

Tour de France Stage 6 - A crash marred procession of doom


Today's stage: A seemingly innocent looking procession to a bunch sprint finish (it was a bunch sprint, it wasn't an innocent procession).

Who won today's stage? Peter Sagan (Liquigas) came around Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) at the end to take the bunch sprint and his 3rd stage win of the race. Notably missing from the sprint was Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) who was caught behind the massive crash that occurred 25-30 km from the end of the stage.

What matters in the GC race? The current leaders didn't change much. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) still leads the race by 7 seconds over Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS). Below all of that though, the GC field was decimated as many were caught in the crash. The first chase group lost around two minutes today That group included Bauke Mollema (Rabobank), Jani Brajkovic (Astana), Alejandro Valverde (Movistar), Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Frank Schleck (RSNT) and Pierre Rolland (Europcar). Another 1-2 minutes later, Rabobank teammates Robert Gesink and Steven Kruiswijk came home. Considering that, Rabobank's hopes for this race and probably the season are shot now. Still, the biggest losers on the day were Garmin-Sharp. GC leader and Giro d'Italia winner Ryder Hesjedal lost over 13 minutes, but then again so did the entire team other than Dave Zabriskie (he was in the breakaway). The Garmin roster that was looking for GC success is not searching for that any longer. Hesjedal is still the team leader on GC in 108th place, 13' 38” behind.

As for those who managed to stay upright after the massive pile up, they are still in good GC shape, all six of them (this may not be an exaggeration). Wiggins is still 2nd overall. Defending champion Cadel Evans (BMC) is still in the top 10. Former Giro and double Vuelta winner Denis Menchov (Katusha) is also in the top 10 as is 2010 Vuelta and twice Giro podium finisher Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas). Further down among GC contenders, Samuel Sanchez (Euskatel), Jurgen Van Den Broeck (Lotto-Belisol) and Levi Leipheimer (OPQS) remain within a minute of the lead. With all of this, the overall standings will be turned upside down again tomorrow. There are mountains and a summit finish tomorrow.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Sagan extended his lead by taking the stage victory. He now leads Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) by 31 points and Greipel by 42 points. Cavendish is much further back and, in all likelihood, out of the green jersey chase. Let the Olympic prep begin.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With only one category 4 climb today, Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) retained the jersey. Tomorrow brings the likely end of his run as the stage winner is likely to overtake Morkov unless he can get himself in the break again.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Former second place Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) was caught behind the crash and finished with the Schleck group over 2 minutes down. Sagan has improved to second though he will likely drop tomorrow. In third is Rein Taaramae (Cofidis). Taaramae is a real threat having held the white jersey for much of last year's tour having won a mountain stage at the Vuelta last year as well.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The bunch sprint finish meant no changes at the top. Team Sky is still the leader followed by RSNT 4 seconds behind. The big news here is the fall of Garmin-Sharp. The defending champion in this classification lost a ton of time today even with Zabriskie in the breakaway and now sits last, over 35 minutes behind.

Biggest surprise: Sagan's sprint win. While Sagan had won the uphill finishes so far, he had not shown the same top end speed as the other sprinters. This left him with a ton of green jersey points, but nothing to show on the flat lands. Today should have been more of the same, but Cavendish wasn't around to contest the sprint and Greipel wasn't quite full strength after crashing twice during the stage. Still, beating a slightly weakened Greipel and full strength Goss with the Lotto leadout train also in play is a shock.

Biggest disappointment: The giant crash and the end of Garmin-Sharp and Rabobank, at least as far as GC goes. For Rabobank, if riders are healthy after hitting the tarmac (and that's a big question considering their team director said it's like a MASH unit on the team bus right now), expect an aggressive bunch searching for stage wins and animating the race in the mountains trying to get back into the race. On GC, the three Rabobank GC hopes all still have top 10 aspirations even if winning or the podium is unlikely at best.

For Garmin, the questions are numerous. The first is if there are any medical supplies left since the entire team except for Zabriskie has been on the tarmac at least once (their team says the bus is like a hospital). Among the crash victims, Tom Danielson abandoned after hitting the ground hard (he was already riding injured after an earlier crash). Tyler Farrar hit the deck again. That is five times in seven days of racing. Johan van Summeren looked like he had been in a bar fight when he finished. And everybody else on the team roster was scraped up from the crash.Second is the refocus the goal. Dan Martin wanted to win the King of the Mountains and that seems a viable possibility if he's healthy enough to climb since the GC leaders won't worry about marking him if he is up the road (similar to Jelle Vanendert last year who was six minutes down and attacked for high mountain points and stage wins). Also, Hesjedal will want to get a stage win if nothing else as he still does not have one in his tour career. Remember that last year Hesjedal was in the breakaway a couple of times on medium mountain stages after losing time and was leading the race up Alpe d'Huez early on the climb.

Other items of note: There were four abandonments from the crash today. There was Danielson of course, but also Wout Poels (Vacansoleil), Davide Vigano (Lampre) and Mikel Astarloza (Euskatel). I suspect there will be more tomorrow in the form of either non-starters after the crash or those who can't hack the climbing because of their injuries.

What is coming tomorrow? The mountains, kind of. I say kind of because the stage is two category 3 climbs and then a category 1 summit finish. It is not the continuous mountain insanity that is coming later

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Jerome Coppel (Saur-Sojasun) 2. Vincenzo Nibali (Liquigas) 3. Chris Horner (RSNT)

Jul 5, 2012

Tour de France Stage 5 - Greipel repeats win from yesterday


Today's stage: A long procession to a bunch sprint. Same as yesterday. Not even with a categorized climb along the way.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) won his second sprint in a row, catching the breakaway and overtaking Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) in the final 100 meters to take the stage.

What matters in the GC race? Nothing, again. 3 km rule after a crash, again. Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) still leads overall. This is unlikely to change tomorrow either as there is another sprint stage.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – The bonus Peter Sagan (Liquigas) got yesterday when Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) crashed is gone. Sagan was caught in Tyler Farrar's (Garmin-Sharp) 4th crash of the race. He still leads the green jersey competition, but Goss, Greipel and Cavendish are a whole lot closer now.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – With no climbs today, Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) retained the jersey. He will retain the jersey as long as he finishes tomorrow as well with onlt one category 4 climb on the route.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group. Barring a crash this won't change until stage 7 with a mountain top finish.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The 3 km rule being applied also means there was no change here, not that it was likely with a bunch sprint finish.

Biggest surprise: The breakaway nearly held on. There was a four-man breakaway seemed doomed all day long. For the whole race, they never got a huge lead. Still, the peloton let them hang on the vine and nearly paid for it as the break was in tact with under 1 km to go and got to the final 100 meters before being caught.

Biggest disappointment: Sagan was collected in the crash. The finish was slightly uphill today which suits Sagan and would possibly limit some of the top end speed that can neutralize him in a bunch sprint. That was all for naught for Sagan after being collected in the Farrar crash.

Other items of note: Argos-Shimano sprinter Marcel Kittel was forced to abandon the race today. He was unable to recover from his various stomach ailments that have limited him all tour long. For his team, it was second guessed when John Degenkolb was left at home and it looks worse now even though Tom Veelers had done decently in the sprints thus far... Team Sky interestingly came to the front and gave Cavendish a bit of help today for the first time all race. I wonder if that will be the case tomorrow with a mountain stage on Saturday.

What is coming tomorrow? One last sprint day before the mountains. There is only one categorized climb tomorrow. Like today, I feel sorry for whoever ends up on breakaway duty.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) 3. Mark Renshaw (Rabobank)

Jul 4, 2012

Tour de France Stage 4 - Greipel sprints to victory as Cav crashed behind him


Today's stage: A long procession to a bunch sprint.

Who won today's stage? Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) used a perfect lead out from his team to defeat a reduced field after a crash just inside 3km to go. Among those not involved because of the crash were stage favorite Mark Cavendish (Team Sky).

What matters in the GC race? The 3 km rule took effect today. It states that if involved in a crash on a non-summit finish with 3km or less to go then everybody in the group gets the same time. That means we still have a top 3 of Fabian Cancellara (RSNT), Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) and Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS).

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Peter Sagan (Liquigas) got a huge bonus on his points quest with Cavendish being involved in the crash. Sagan finished fifth on the stage and now leads Matthew Goss (Orica-GreenEdge) by 55 points, Greipel by 60 and Cavendish by 61.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) finally took a day off from breakaway duty with not enough points available to threaten him in this competition.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group. Barring a crash this won't change until stage 7 with a mountain top finish.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – The 3 km rule being applied also means there was no change here, not that it was likely with a bunch sprint finish.

Biggest surprise: Nothing. Nothing at all. This was a by the books sprint stage. Early breakaway goes and takes a big lead. Big lead is eroded by the peloton when it decides it wants to chase. Breakaway is caught. Crash near the end takes a few contenders out. Sprint. With the exception of the crash that often happens, this is the patter for every bunch sprint in cycling.

Biggest disappointment: Cavendish was collected in the crash. After using Matt Goss' Orica-GreenEdge train as his own personal lead out for the intermediate sprint, Cavendish looked like the strongest man for the sprint for sure, but the crash deprived us of the battle.

Other items of note: Martin Tjallingi (Rabobank) was forced to abandon after his injuries from yesterday's crash. He somehow managed to finish the stage with a broken pelvis. In addition Tom Danielson (Garmin-Sharp) lost a lot of time yesterday meaning he won't be replicating his top 10 from a year ago, especially carrying a major shoulder injury... Over at the Tour of Austria, Jakob Fuglsang (RSNT) took the stage win and the race lead today.

What is coming tomorrow? More sprinting. There isn't even a categoriezed climb at all on the route tomorrow.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEdge)

Jul 3, 2012

Tour de France Stage 3 - Another Saganesque Victory


Today's stage: A one-day classic disguised as part of a stage race.

Who won today's stage? Peter Sagan (Liquigas) won his second stage in three days. While he isn't automatic in a sprint like he was in California or Switzerland, these hilly stages are easy marks for him right now.

What matters in the GC race? Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) finished with the main group and retained the yellow jersey, but not without a few tense moments as 3rd place Sylvain Chavanel (OPQS) attacked and nearly stole the stage and the jersey on the final climb. Among the overall threats, Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) is still the top man and everyone else still has the same time as before.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Sagan extended his lead in the Green jersey competition with his stage win. His main competition is defending champion Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) who freelanced his way to top points in the intermediate sprint remaining in range of catching Sagan.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) got himself in the break for the 3rd day day in a row. This allowed him extend his lead. He is sure to retain the jersey tomorrow as there aren't enough points available for anyone to pass him. Maybe he will take a mch needed rest and avoid the breakaway tomorrow.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after also finishing with the group.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – With a large group finishing together, there was no change here. Team Sky retains the lead and they will continue to wear the new yellow helmets that go along with leadership in this competition. In other words, ditto yesterday. This doesn't figure to change until the mountains.

Biggest surprise: Morkov in the break again. He is likely to pay dearly later, but his team's new second sponsor Tinkoff has to be pleased with all of the screen time they have gotten thus far. Still, when was the last time someone was in the break three days in a row? Not even anyone from the FDJ breakaway squad from last season managed that.

Biggest disappointment: Nobody really challenged Sagan. It was too easy considering Sagan had a chance to celebrate with a running man dance on the bike as he won. At least Chavanel tried with his big attack. Everyone else either had nothing for Sagan or didn't bother trying as they saved energy for GC assaults later.

Other items of note: Today was a festival of crashes. Early on Astana leader Jani Brajkovic crashed (he is fine and still sits 13th overall). Later, Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) and Kanstantin Siutsou (Team Sky) collided and caused a decent sized pile up. Siutsou was forced to abandon because of his injuries. Finally, there was a large pile up that included Farrar again, JJ Rojas (Movistar), Johnny Hoogerland (Vacansoleil), Simon Gerrans (Orica-GreenEdge) and many others. As a result of the crashes, many were stuck behind the main field where the Movistar team drove forward and dropped everyone. Notable among those that lost time some amount of time: Christian Vandevelde (Garmin-Sharp), Tom Danielson (Garmin-Sharp) and Thomas Voeckler (Europcar). Also of note, Rojas was forced to abandon.

What is coming tomorrow? Sprinters awaken again. Tomorrow is pancake flat for the final run in and has no climbs above category 4 at all. This means sprinters all the way.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) 2. Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) 3. Kenny Van Hummel (Vaconsoleil)

Jul 1, 2012

Tour de France Stage 1 - The Sagan Rampage Continues


Today's stage: A hilly stage around the area near where the Liege-Bastogne-Liege classic takes place.

Who won today's stage? Peter Sagan (Liquigas-Cannondale) continued his reign of terror that started when he won five stages of the Tour of California in May followed by four stage wins at the Tour de Suisse. Today, he beat Fabian Cancellara (RSNT) and Edvald Boasson Hagen (Team Sky) in a three man sprint.

What matters in the GC race? Cancellara finished second on the stage and retained his yellow jersey for another day. Behind him, not much happened. Everyone of consequence finished with the main group except for Chris Horner (RSNT) who lost a minute and Peter Velits (OPQS) who lost 2 minutes because of an ill-timed puncture.

What matters in other competitions?
Green Jersey (Points) – Cancellara now also leads this competition. Behind him are Sagan, and Boasson Hagen meaning Sagan will wear the jersey tomorrow as Cancellara is in yellow.
Polka Dot Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michael Morkov (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff) was in the breakaway and absorbed the most points on the hills of today's course to take the first KoM jersey of the race.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Tejay van Garderen (BMC) retained his white jersey finishing with the main group. Boasson Hagen remains second after being involved in the final sprint for the stage victory.
Team Classification (Calculated by adding the three best times on each team each day) – With a large group finishing together, there was no change here. Team Sky retains the lead and they will continue to wear the new yellow helmets that go along with leadership in this competition.

Biggest surprise: Nothing. Sagan winning this stage given his talents and recent hot streak should surprise nobody. Cancellara finishing second because he dragged someone with a better sprint to the finish line with him should also surprise nobody (it happened at Milan-San Remo earlier this season and usually happens at least once in every Tour de France).

Biggest disappointment: The GC guys didn't try anything today. The final climb was fairly steep and many non-climbers were spat out the back of the peloton. Guys like Gesnik and Nibali need to find time whenever possible in this race because of all the time trial kms.

Other items of note: Tony Martin (OPQS) saw his personal nightmare Tour continue. He fell just 11 km into the race after his puncture yesterday in the prologue. He hurt his wrist but did finish the stage... There were two other crashes, one of which collected Luis Leon Sanchez (Rabobank) and caused him to lose four minutes today. The Sanchez crash also collected two Movistar riders and Team Sky's Michael Rogers. The other crash caused no injury but was a larger pile up.

What is coming tomorrow? Sprinty. Sprint. Tomorrow is nearly pancake flat. It is fast men all the way for a bunch sprint finish as the race crosses into France for the first time.

Tomorrow's prediction: 1. Peter Sagan (Liquigas) 2. Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano) 3. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky)

Jun 25, 2012

Tour de France Green Jersey Preview


The Tour de France is upon us. Most know about the overall victory and the yellow jersey that comes with it. For many riders, the yellow jersey is nothing more than a pipe dream. They lack the talent for climbing or more likely just have a heavier build. These riders become sprinters or all-rounders. They excel at winning races on flatlands or on moderately hilly courses (just not mountains). For these riders, there is another competition, the Green Jersey, one of the most prestigious titles in cycling outside of winning a Grand Tour or a Monument.

It's Power Ranking time

1 Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) – The defending champion of this classification. Cavendish was on point away from winning the equivalent competition at the May Giro d'Italia. Still, he is not the overwhelming favorite he has been in the past as he was smoked in sprints by Marcel Kittel (more on him later) recently and is pointed as much if not more to the Olympic Road Race in his home country just a week after the end of the tour. Considering Cavendish also does not have a sprint train dedicated to him like in previous years (he rides for Team Sky sharing the team with overall favorite Bradley Wiggins), his favorite status is tenuous at best despite his long record of stage victories and last year's green jersey in this race.

2 Peter Sagan (Liquigas) – Another rider without a sprint train (much of the team will be devoted to GC hope Vincenzo Nibali), Sagan may not need it. If the stage is possible to end in a sprint and has any sort of climbing to drop other sprinters, Sagan is going to win. For those that doubt that, look at his wins at the Tour of California and Tour de Suisse over the last month and a half. The only reason he isn't number one is that he hasn't beaten Cavendish in any of those races (Cavendish was busy elsewhere) and this is his first Tour de France. Cavendish won four stages his first time out but didn't finish the race and he won five stages in another tour but lost the green jersey to single stage winner Thor Hushovd. A similar thing could fell the inexperienced Sagan here.

3 Marcel Kittel (Argos-Shimano) – Kittel has been winning races everywhere for two years now, but most have been lower level races as he races for a Pro Continental team. Still, he is a threat and he beat Cavendish twice at the recent Ster ZLM Toer in the Netherlands. Once again though, inexperience is a likely culprit here as Kittel has never raced the Tour de France before and was beaten soundly by Sagan at the Vuelta last August.

4 Matt Goss (Orica-GreenEgde) – Cavendish's former teammate at HTC-Columbia, Goss will have a sprint train at his disposal as there are no GC threats on his team. Still, Goss has yet to beat Cavendish head-to-head (since parting ways, Goss has finished second to Cavendish four times including the World Championships last year and only won when Cavendish crashed) and therefore cannot be considered a real threat until he does.

5 Andre Greipel (Lotto-Belisol) – Another former Cavendish teammate, Greipel won a stage last year and seems likely to do so again this year. Still, a green jersey seems like a longshot as Greipel is inconsistent at best when it comes to winning day in and day out like what is needed at the Tour de France.

6 Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) – The old war horse here, Petacchi's career seems dead, but he is listed this high because many thought he was done two years ago when he won the Green Jersey. Write him off at your own risk.

7 Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Sharp) – Farrar vs Cavendish was thought a couple of years ago to be the next great sprint rivalry, but Farrar has not held his end of the bargain up. He has lacked form all season, then he crashed in the Giro d'Italia and watched his teammate Ryder Hesjedal win the whole race (in a huge upset). This means he has no sprint train like he normally does and combined with his lacking form, he is unlikely to win a stage this year.

8 JJ Rojas (Movistar) – Second place last year, he lacks the top end speed to really contend in this competition, especially as everything that he does well is done better by Sagan. Still deserves a mention though.

9 Kenny Van Hummel (Vacansoleil) – More like to win a stage than Petacchi, Farrar or Rojas, but he realistically has no chance at the Green Jersey. In his first Tour de France three years ago, Van Hummel spent the entire race in the mountains racing against the time cut before falling on a descent during stage 17. While his struggle was popular (he was the last finisher on every mountain stage until his crash) with people speculating about whether the organizers would “Kill Kenny” by DQ'ing him on the time cut, it also showed he is unlikely to ever win a green jersey as he is unlikely to ever get over the mountains with enough energy to compete in the final sprint often needed to win the green jersey.

10 Philippe Gilbert (BMC) – Would be ranked higher, much higher, if he was on a different team. That he is on the team of defending champion Cadel Evans means he won't get to ride for himself at all after the Stage 2 Liege race that runs by his hometown. Still, I expect him to find a stage win somewhere and to finish in the points top ten.