Rollin' with the Bruins in the Smoking Crater (I mean Pac-12)

The Smoking Crater is the second of my power conference tournament previews. And trust me, this will be ugly and probably really wrong. Other than predicting Utah and USC as losers, every game, no matter what, even when they played each other, there were no right answers in the Pac-12 this season. Nonetheless, I will try.

Wednesday – First Round

8 Washington St. vs 9 Oregon St. - Washington St. swept Oregon St. this season, but the way they played against UCLA suggests they gave up when Washington came back to beat them in Pullman a couple of weeks ago. Needless to say, I am picking the Beavers, a perennially underachiving team that at least did something the rest of the league didn't: win a decent non-conference game (Texas on a neutral court).

5 UCLA vs 12 USC – See the opening. Predicting anything but a USC or Utah loss is foolhardily stupid.

7 Stanford vs 10 Arizona St. - Arizona St. was nearly in that same Utah/USC category until they went and beat Arizona on Sunday. That said, they still won't be winning here.

6 Colorado vs 11 Utah – Ditto the UCLA/USC entry.

Thursday – Second Round

1 Washington vs 9 Oregon St. - Washington needs wins. Oregon St. is irrelevant. On a neutral court at noon, even Washington won't screw this one up.

4 Arizona vs 5 UCLA – Arizona already screwed the season up by losing to Arizona St. on Saturday. On the other hand, UCLA looks galvanized and semi-unified for once after the SI report. Nothing like controversy to bring a team together. Given those situations, UCLA will be winning this game.

2 Cal vs 7 Stanford – Cal already blew this once. It won't make the same mistake again.

3 Oregon vs 6 Colorado – Eventually, Colorado's great run will end. That time is not now. The Buffs pushed Oregon in Eugene on Thursday and will finish the job and Oregon's tourney hopes this Thursday.

Friday – Semifinals

1 Washington vs 5 UCLA – We just saw this game the other day at basically a neutral site in Los Angeles. Rinse, repeat. This is a great matchup for UCLA.

2 Cal vs 6 Colorado – I just don't trust Cal to have any consistency from day to day. Not that I trust Colorado either. Flip a coin. Comes up Colorado.

Saturday – Final

5 UCLA vs 6 Colorado – Before someone criticizes me for a 5-6 matchup in the final, remember that this is the Pac-12 Tournament and it causes screwy things to happen. Remember that in the last 10 years there has been a 4-6 and a 3-8 final. On to the game, Colorado has no answer for the UCLA post game. It's only hope is to live by the 3 and considering that will be the case for two games before it won't be happening again. UCLA in the NCAA's, maybe as the only Pac-12 team if this bracket actually occurs.

Tournament Questions

Any bid thieves bubble teams should be scared of?

Everybody. There are no locks in this league, but its likely to get two teams in. An Oregon-Washington final could make three so there are things to be very afraid of in this league.

Most likely flame-out

Arizona. The Wildcats threw its only at-large lifeline away by losing to Arizona St. on Sunday. Given that, who knows the mindset of this teams entering the tournament. Also, UCLA is bad matchup and that is almost sure to be the first game.

How many NCAA bids for this league?

I think it will be two. The tournament champion and whichever gets further of Cal and Washington. If Cal and Washington play each other in the final, both go and everyone else stays home.

College Basketball's Smoking Crater

It's February. Time to reassess the college basketball world as teams get an idea of what is needed to make the NCAA Tournament. Today we start conference by conference with the Pac-12.

What has transpired so far? Nothing good. The league is the joke of the national college basketball scene with writers and analysts everywhere piling on. The mid-major leagues that share the Western half of the US are eons better, at least at the top and the Mountain West is better at the bottom too.

Biggest surprise – Colorado has remained in the race, trailing leaders Cal and Washington by just one game. How much of this is the Buffaloes actually being good and how much is the rest of the league being horrible enough that a bad Buffalo team could stay in the race is up for debate though.

Biggest disappointment – Can I say everyone? No? OK, fine, Arizona. The Wildcats are barely in the RPI top 100 after being ranked in the preseason top 25. Just an awful year in Tucson from the young Wildcats where nearly everything that could go wrong without debilitating injuries or transfers has happened.

NCAA Tournament Locks – None. This league has only one lock. That would be the conference tournament champions. Everyone will be takings its chances. Yes, it is that bad.

Should be in the tournament – The regular season champion. Whoever emerges from the morass in the second half of the conference season should get into the NCAA Tournament, especially if that team is Cal.

Squarely on the bubble – Cal, Oregon, Washington, Stanford

These four (along with Colorado) are in ok position given the computer numbers as long as they put together huge runs in the second half of the conference season. Realistically, these teams (other than Stanford) are fighting for the league title and the likely bid that will come with it. As for Colorado, the Buffaloes lack quality wins (the best non-conference win was against Georgia and that is depreciating rapidly given the Bulldogs lost to Auburn last night) and have the worse RPI of any contender. A Colorado league title would likely become an indictment of the entire league and doom it to one-bid no matter what.

Autobid or bust – Colorado, Arizona, Oregon St., UCLA, Washington St., USC, Arizona St. and Utah

For a major conference with 12 teams, that is a huge list at this point in the season.

Final thought – This might take years to get out of. The Pac-12 is so bad this season that the perception will hurt for years to come (like what happened after the 1999 football disaster that set the league back for years in the National Title race until the rise of USC even though there were worthy teams in the league). Next year it appears that nobody other than maybe Arizona will have any expectations at all, putting the league squarely on par with mid-majors that have to prove themselves every time out against other major conference teams. Given that, the Pac-12 won't return to its former glory (it was only four years ago that six out of 10 in the Pac-10 made the tournament and a credible case for a seventh was available) until the stink of this season wears off, however long that takes.

Reassessing the Landscape - Pac-12

There is one month to go in the season. That means one month until Championship Saturday. With conference seasons in full swing and some already nearing conclusions, it's time to reassess the major BCS conferences (ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, sorry Big East, you stink and Cincinnati is going to win you for the 3^rd time in 4 years) continuing today with the Pac-12. Previously: ACC

North Division (in order of current standings)

Stanford (9-0, 7-0) – David Shaw has done a great job keeping the system going in the post-Jim Harbaugh era. It helps to have Andrew Luck, but he has done a good job keeping things rolling even in spite of injuries. For this team, the season comes down to this Saturday night against Oregon. Win and the Rose Bowl will likely be the minimum.

Predicted Finish: 12-1, 9-0 (wins over Oregon, Cal and Arizona St. in the Pac-12 Championship Game; loss to Notre Dame)

Oregon (8-1, 6-0) – This program is great, but they probably should avoid quality opponents in openers. When teams have a long period to prepare (more than a bye meaning bowl games and season openers), they can grind the offense to a halt with a good defensive line. Other than that, this offense has been its usual unstoppable self, blowing away Pac-12 defense after Pac-12 defense. Of course that means I am likely to pick against Oregon in the bowl game wherever they play if the opponent has any sort of defense. Until Oregon can figure that problem out, there is a ceiling on how high they can rise.

Predicted Finish: 10-2, 8-1 (wins over USC and Oregon St., loss to Stanford))

Washington (6-3, 4-2) – The one big positive surprise in a league filled with disappointing teams is this one. Steve Sarkisian has done an incredible job of getting Keith Price ready to play this season after he looked overwhelmed in his only action last season (at Oregon when Jake Locker was injured). Considering Locker was a first-round pick, I'm shocked that Price has been better than him in pretty much every way. Now that Sarkisian has his offense in place, he can work on the still woeful defense, especially against the run (as Stanford and Nebraska so ably exploited).

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 5-4 (win over Washington St., losses to USC and Oregon St.)

Cal (5-4, 2-4) – We basically have the same Cal team that we have had every year since the 2007 collapse. Spotty quarterback play means the playmakers can't get the ball when and where needed and the defense is good at home and bad on the road. The combination makes for a team near .500 and not a team like the 2004-early 2007 juggernauts that this program produced. That said, Jeff Tedford deserves every opportunity to turn it around again as this program was at the Indiana/Kansas level of bad and on probation when Tedford got there.

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 3-6 (win over Oregon St., losses to Stanford and Arizona St.)

Oregon St. (2-7, 2-4) – This season crashed and burned from the start. Losing to middling FCS opponents generally can't be recovered from, especially when the next week is a trip to Wisconsin (that started with a negative yardage punt). At this point, the season high is sending Arizona coach Mike Stoops to the unemployment line. When that is the only thing of note and Oregon remains on the schedule to blow you up again, it's been a bad year.

Predicted Finish: 3-9, 3-6 (win over Washington, losses to Cal and Oregon)

Washington St. (3-6, 1-5) – The Cougars have shown marked improvement, but they're still awful. The reason they have been so competitive in most games other than their own improvement is the cliff that much of the rest of the league seemed to drive off of after last season.

Predicted Finish: 3-9, 1-8 (losses to Arizona St., Utah and Washington)

South Division

UCLA (5-4, 4-2) – This team is an argument for what must be done eventually should be done immediately. If the powers that be believed Rick Neuheisel needed to go, they should have fired him right after that embarrassing loss to Arizona. Now, there is a chance Neuheisel will win his way into another year on the job, much to the consternation of many fans in Westwood. On the positive side, Neuheisel has a healthy, established quarterback for the first time in his tenure and it is doing wonders for the offense that suddenly looks like it can move the ball (much as it did early last season before the Pac-12 figured out the Bruins couldn't throw).

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 5-4 (win over Colorado, losses to Utah and USC)

Arizona St. (6-3, 4-2) – What a blow it. Losing to UCLA last week was inexcusable and all the good will obtained by Dennis Erickson and his staff by beating USC and Missouri early on has been squandered. I know this team has suffered more injuries than most, but most of the key players, especially on offense are still around. Given what we know now, there have been two unforgivable losses for this team (Illinois and UCLA), just like every year.

Predicted Finish: 8-5, 6-3 (wins over Washington St. and Cal, losses to Arizona and Stanford in Pac-12 Championship Game)

USC (7-2, 4-2) – It's been a good season at USC and if everyone comes back, there is a chance for one last hurrah before the scholarship losses really kick in a couple of years from now. There are still some troublesome things, but Lane Kiffin has certainly exceeded expectations this season. That said, Monte Kiffin and his defense are still not good, no matter what the Los Angeles media seems to think.

Predicted Finish: 9-3, 6-3 (wins over Washington and UCLA, loss to Oregon)

Utah (5-4, 2-4) – Before anyone brings it up, this is not a team that can't compete in a BCS conference. It is a team that is rebuilding and doesn't reload like a powerhouse. No shame there other than having the rebuilding year coincide with the first year in a new conference. Now that the schedule has eased up, the Utes have looked better and could help determine the division winner even though they won't be winning it themselves.

Predicted Finish: 8-4, 5-4 (wins over UCLA, Washington St. and Colorado)

Arizona (2-7, 1-6) – This was also a schedule induced nightmare, much like Utah. Last season started 7-1 and finished with Stanford, Oregon, USC, Arizona St. and Oklahoma St. in the bowl game. Other than Arizona St., the Wildcats weren't favorites against any of those teams and would not at any point have been favorites against any of those teams. This season, after the obligatory FCS sacrifice, the Wildcats played Oklahoma St., Stanford, Oregon and USC. Look familiar? That would explain the awful start, no matter what anyone thinks of the job Mike Stoops did or didn't do.

Predicted Finish: 5-7, 3-6 (wins over Colorado, Arizona St. and Louisiana-Lafayette)

Colorado (1-9, 0-6) – Obviously nobody knew quite the extent of the issues that infested Colorado under Dan Hawkins. No matter the coach, this team is facing a long rebuilding process as the talent level is abominable. At this point, Colorado would be a midpack team in the Mountain West or the WAC, making them a doormat here.

Predicted Finish: 1-12, 0-9 (losses to Arizona, UCLA and Utah)

Early College Football Conference Projections

Today begins way too early College Football Previews. This is short blips on three conferences. The other BCS leagues will follow next week and the Non-BCS leagues will follow after that.

Pac-12

LaMichael James of Oregon runs away from the Stanford defense.

The North appears to be Oregon against Stanford though I think Stanford is overrated. I also think Oregon St. will bounce back a bit from last season's disappointment. Even with that, it division is Oregon's to lose. Cal will also be improved, but not enough to beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium and the Washington schools are not at a point to challenge for division titles at this point in either of their rebuilding processes. Expect Oregon to win this division fairly easily.

In the South, the best team last year was Arizona and that team seems to have all sorts of issues and baggage considering they carry a five game losing streak into the season and have to go to Oklahoma St. in week two, just a few months after getting clobbered by the Cowboys in a bowl game. Considering USC is ineligible to win the division and Colorado is starting over with a new coaching staff, that leaves underachiving UCLA, pinheaded (at least on defense with loose cannon Vontaze Burfict) Arizona St. and league newcomer Utah to compete with Arizona for the title. With how wide open it is, no outcome should be surprising here. I am picking UCLA to bounce back after last season's disaster on the basis that the near biblical plague level of injuries to quarterbacks and offensive linemen has to stop at some point and when it does this year, the offense will finally look competant for the first time under Rick Neuheisel.

Conference Title Game: Oregon over UCLA

Big Ten

Former NC State quarterback Russell Wilson may be the key
Wisconsin's season, if he enrolls there to lead the Badgers.

The other expanded league offers the idiocy of the Ohio St. situation. With players suspended and the coaching staff under siege, it won't matter this seasons. Ohio St. will still win its division, though with a loss or two thrown in. The reason being that they host Wisconsin and only two out of three out of the Nebraska, Michigan St., Michigan triumvarate will be needed to win it. To the rest other than quarterbackless Wisconsin (who becomes the favorite if NC State quarterback Russell Wilson enrolls there), good luck surviving, you will need it though I expect a better season out of Penn St.

In the other division (don't ask me the name, I still can't figure out which is the Leaders and which is the Legends), Nebraska appears to be the class of the division with Michigan St. trailing behind. Iowa is a possible threat, but I don't expect the Hawkeyes to challenge for the division title even if they do exceed expectations.

Conference Title Game: Ohio St overturns a regular season loss to Nebraska to send Jim Tressel out a winner.

SEC

The key to SEC West race lies above: Alabama hosts
LSU and Arkansas at Bryant-Denny Stadium

In the West, Auburn loses everything after winning the National Title last season. The Tigers will be lucky to even win seven games against one of the more grueling schedules in all of college football. With the champs out of the way, it comes down to Arkansas, LSU and Alabama (Mississippi St. will be good and might even determine the division champ by beating one of the top three but they won't go the minimum 2-1 against those three while also winning every other game needed to win the division). All appear loaded and all have quarterback issues to fix. The ultimate tiebreaker here will be homefield. Alabama gets both LSU and Arkansas at home to see them through.

In the East, Georgia will be the best team by the end of the season, but South Carolina will beat the Bulldogs early and make it stand up to win the division for a second straight year. Tennessee is still a year or two away from being a real contender again (not that it mattered when average Tennessee teams won the east in 2004 and 2007) and Florida is just a mess offensively right now despite the overwhelming talent level there. The Gators will ultimately be fine under new coach Will Muschamp, but before another year of suffering.

Conference Title Game: Alabama over South Carolina