NCAA Full Tournament Review – Because only reviewing Kentucky's win over Kansas in a sloppy game would be dull

Champion: Kentucky. The Wildcats were the best team all season long and that didn't change during the tournament. Relative to the competition, this is one of the most dominant teams in recent memory (anyone who doubts that after the relatively underwhelming second half in the title game needs to go search for the remains of Baylor after the Elite Eight). Even during the great game with Indiana (more on that later), there was never really a sense that Kentucky wasn't in control. If only Christian Watford hadn't beaten the buzzer in the first game back in December, we might have seen a perfect team (believe me Kentucky would have had more urgency against Vanderbilt in the SEC Tourney if perfection was still on the line).

Best Player: Anthony Davis, Kentucky. He just takes over games on defense and his offense is more than good enough to allow things to run through him. Playing against him is nearly unfair, especially if Kentucky's 3-point shooters are on their game. Amazingly, he was the best player on the floor by a wide margin in the championship game even though he didn't score in the first half.

Best Game: Kansas over North Carolina in the Elite Eight. Don't let the score color the thought process. This was a great game where Kansas made a huge run at the end. The first half was drawing Kentucky-Duke 92 comparisons on twitter (crazy but still, and most likely because of the lackluster tournament to that point) and was incredible basketball. The second half was a tight defensive affair that still held all of its entertainment value. Admittedly, this game doesn't win most years, but there were no truly fantastic moments in this year's tournament that could elevate some other game.

Honorable Mentions Best Game:

Kentucky over Indiana in the Sweet 16 – An incredible game of offensive execution on both sides. Still, I never got the sense Kentucky was really in trouble.

Indiana over VCU 61 in the Third Round (ugh) – Good, well-played slow tempo game where Indiana just made the right plays down the stretch and VCU couldn't win it at the buzzer.

North Carolina over Ohio in the Sweet 16 – A game made by the absence of point guard Kendall Marshall still was great theater down the stretch as Ohio threw everything it had at the favored Tar Heels before succumbing in overtime.

Biggest Upset: Norfolk St. over Missouri in Second Round. This was just inconceivable to pretty much everyone, particularly those that watched Missouri disembowel Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament final just a few days earlier. This game was bigger than Lehigh's 15 over 2 upset over Duke for a few reasons. For one, the efficiency stats actually showed that Norfolk St. was overseeded at 15 and should have been in a play in game while Lehigh looked more like a 14 seed. Second, Missouri was being passed at least to the Elite Eight if not the Final Four while Duke was considered a potential upset victim as early as a possible second round matchup with Xavier. Third, Norfolk St. played one of the worst tournament games in history the next time out against Florida. The Gators shut the engine down before halftime and won by 34. This is normal in 1 vs 16 games, but Florida was a 7 seed (if a 7 that underachieved during the regular season).

Best Comeback: 3-way tie between Louisville over Florida in the Elite Eight, BYU over Iona in the First Four and Western Kentucky over Mississippi Valley St. in the First Four. For Louisville, they turned up the pressure and Florida wilted late under it at the Elite Eight stage, just as they did last season against Butler. BYU coming back against Iona seemed inconceivable at one point. The Cougars were down 25 and Iona was basically shooting against air. Then BYU got the defense going and Iona couldn't hit the water from a boat. The best thing, it wasn't a change at halftime. It basically changed on a dime with no rhyme, reason or adjustments. Western Kentucky's comeback might have been the most improbable of them all with no reason to believe there was hope down 16 with only 37 points on the board with 5 minutes to go. The battle was to see if the Hilltoppers could reach 50 (my money would have been on no), not if they could win the game like they did.

Best Conference: SEC. It helps the have the champs, but the others in the tournament also puller their weight. Florida took advantage of some hapless teams and good matchups to come within a minute of the Final Four as a 7-seed. Alabama looked good in a one-point loss to Creighton and Vanderbilt lost at the expectation for its seed. Overall, it looks good while others were all over the map results wise.

Worst Conference: Mountain West. And thus ends a pathetic year for Western basketball. Nobody Rocky Mountains west managed to make the Sweet 16 and the standard bearer for this season was the MWC. From the league, only New Mexico showed well, pushing eventual Final Four participant Louisville to the final minute after winning its first game. Everyone else was bad. Colorado St. was meekly dispatched by Murray St. San Diego St. was upset by NC State and UNLV was awful for most of the game in handing the smoking crater (that's Pac-12 for those who don't know) its only win. Just horrid.

Other thoughts:

This normally would be a much longer post, but I can't bring myself to type that much more. The tournament, for all the lauding the committee got for getting the bracket right, ended up with a generally boring and awful tournament.

The whole tournament was a boring march to the Kentucky coronation. Even when Louisville tied the game in the Final Four, there was never a sense Kentucky was even in trouble. It dulled the proceedings everywhere, especially with no buzzer beaters or great moments late in any other game.

Missouri's loss and Louisville's ascension from the West stripped the tournament of its entertainment value. Both team got a lot of coverage during the regular season. Everybody loved watching Missouri and its entertaining brand of basketball. Nobody liked watching and its limited roster play up tempo games that still didn't reach 60 points. With Missouri gone and Louisville advancing, it bored the nation and annoyed many who picked Missouri to the Final Four and Louisville as an early upset victim (I only did one of those).

The committee needs to stop matching non-power conference teams in the first round when possible. There was no need for Wichita St./VCU or Saint Louis/Memphis (the games involving the Mountain West and non power teams were largely unavoidable given that ¾ of the ones in the tournament were seeded either 6 or 11 and the other one was a 5 meaning there was no ability to seed adjust). In addition, I think BYU-Iona and Cal-USF should have had the matchups juggled in the First Four. It would make everyone happier because everyone likes seeing the small schools take shots at the bigger ones (and lose) and it would also lend more legitimacy to a team like Murray St. that beat Colorado St. but no power conference teams the entire season.

Congrats to Kentucky. Hopefully next year is better.

NCAA Tournament Opening Thursday in Review

Best game of the day – Syracuse 72, UNC-Asheville 65

For much of the game, it actually looked like Asheville was going to win. Then the zebras got involved. Let it be noted that the day a 16 finally beats a 1, it will be in a year when a non-Power Conference school happens to be a 1 seed. And in that year, it will be in part because the zebras did not get involved. As an aside, that this was the best game of the day shows how awful a day it was, and don't anyone trying to spin it make you believe otherwise. And for those that didn't see it, let's just say if you had either a rooting or betting interest in Asheville winning, you would be screaming... still... 12 hours after the fact.

Honorable Mention – Colorado 68, UNLV 64

Only notable because we got one of the very few frantic finishes with Colorado failing miserably down the stretch against the UNLV press but having just enough legs to avoid coughing up a 20 point lead.

Upset of the day – VCU 62, Wichita St. 59

Considering there were all of two seed upsets all day, one of them had to win. And considering some were thinking Wichita St. had the best chance of anyone to beat Kentucky in this tournament (ha ha to the people who have mancrushes on Pomeroy and his efficiency ratings, its only a tool, just like the RPI and our own eyes), this counts, even if it was perpetuated by upset king VCU (of the Final Four run from the First Four just last season).

Honorable Mention – Colorado 68, UNLV 64

The 22-4 run UNLV ran off to get back in the game after being down 20 was what everyone expected here. Not the other 35 minutes of play where UNLV looked like a bad Pac-12 team.

Player of the day – Jae Crowder, Marquette

25 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals. That is one heck of game in an easy Marquette win over BYU. And if someone wants to question me, look at the stat line again.

Honorable Mention – Royce White, Iowa St.

Best player on the court in the Iowa St/Connecticut game. 15 points, 13 rebounds and playing the point from the power forward position, effectively. Great game for White.

Coach of the Day – Mark Few, Gonzaga

For all of Gonzaga's reputation as a bracket buster and powerful team in the tournament, the results really haven't been there for quite some time. Even the Sweet 16 runs in recent years have been expected because of seeding. While this was also an expected win, the margin and way it was done to poor West Virginia was eye opening.

Honorable Mention – Rick Pitino, Louisville

Nice job by Pitino getting his team ready to play. After losing in the first round last season, Louisville could have easily come out nervous and tight and lost again. After winning the Big East Tournament last week, Louisville could have easily come out lackadaisical and lost. The Cardinals did neither and played its most disciplined offensive game of the season for a workmanlike win over Davidson.

Bonehead of the Day – Roscoe Smith, Connecticut

Some context here:

Today:

I don't know why I'm surprised (also note Calhoun's reaction in both clips, exactly the same). UConn has alternately played like pinheads or selfish jerks all season and often both. This fits the pinhead category...

Honorable Mention – Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut

… and this one fits the selfish jerk category, especially considering this was in the final minute of a blowout loss.

The hardest league to win on the road in will live up to its reputation (aka UNLV will win MWC Tourney)

Thursday – First Round

1 San Diego St. vs 8 Boise St. - Boise St. has been rather bad away from home this season. On a neutral floor, this won't be pretty.

4 Colorado St. vs 5 TCU – TCU has been a pest all season at home. They aren't at home and Colorado St. desperately needs a win, at least in this game for its NCAA Tournament hopes.

2 New Mexico vs 7 Air Force – Replace Boise St. from the first game with Air Force and that will be the result.

3 UNLV vs 6 Wyoming – We just saw this game in the same building last weekend. And it didn't end well for Wyoming, just as this one will not.

Friday – Semifinals

1 San Diego St. vs 4 Colorado St. - San Diego St. is safely in the NCAA Tournament field. Colorado St. is not. The Rams will have more motivation and will get the upset win against an Aztec team looking ahead a little bit.

2 New Mexico vs 3 UNLV – Nobody beats UNLV in Vegas this year. Though the ugly blowout New Mexico laid on the Rebels in the The Pit makes me at least pause, I don't think New Mexico can replicate that in Las Vegas.

Saturday – Final

3 UNLV vs 4 Colorado St. - Colorado St. will be playing with house money if it indeed is in the final on Saturday. Good thing because if they are in this game and UNLV is indeed the opponent, I expect the Rams to get run off the floor, especially after what happened in Fort Collins last week.

Questions for the Mountain West Tournament

Any potential bid thieves?

Colorado St. is a bubble team capable of winning this thing. Further down, virtually everyone except Boise St. beat everyone at home. That confidence means anyone below the locks is a potential bid thief, if somebody can knock UNLV out of this thing.

Should the tournament be held on a team's home floor?

Absolutely. Is it an advantage for UNLV? Yes. That said, doubling the attendance throughout the tournament compared to when it was in Denver is a nice thing and its not like the other schools are shut out of tickets. When BYU was still in this league it traditionally brought a ton of fans. Heck, the 2007 final was only about a 60/40 split between UNLV and BYU fans.

How many bids for the league?

Four. If Colorado St. beats San Diego St. that will lock a fourth team in whether that be the Rams themselves or a bid thief from the other side of the bracket.

Welcome to the Kentucky Invitational. Hope you have you're at-large bid ready if you're not UK.

SEC is up next on the conference tournament previews and there's no sense in burying the lead here. Kentucky is going to win the tournament. Hope I didn't spoil it already. For everyone else, there is still NCAA seeding and the bubble to play for.

Thursday – First Round

8 LSU vs 9 Arkansas – Arkansas has won all of one game away from home all season. It doesn't really matter who the Razorbacks are playing, I'm not picking them on a neutral court.

5 Alabama vs 12 South Carolina – A classic don't lose game and Alabama won't lose.

7 Ole Miss vs 10 Auburn – Pretty much every tournament needs to have a first round upset and this is the most likely one, especially since there really isn't much to play for unless you are one of the fools who thinks Ole Miss is still on the bubble (they aren't, their RPI just makes it appear so because Andy Kennedy is a smart scheduler).

6 Mississippi St. vs 11 Georgia – Mississippi St. lost to Georgia not long ago. They would be advised to not repeat the mistake. They won't, even if the chemistry issues around this team start flaring... again

Friday – Second Round

1 Kentucky vs 8 LSU – Anyone in this league is just a sacrifice for Kentucky. Wildcats roll.

4 Florida vs 5 Alabama – Florida is the most overrated team in all of college basketball this season. Alabama is pretty average. Makes for a good game, especially when one team is trying to avoid the 8-9 game and the other is trying to avoid the First Four. When in doubt, go with the guards in tournament play. Sadly, that means Florida.

2 Tennessee vs 10 Auburn – Tennessee desperately needs this game. Auburn will just be happy to have gotten the win needed to ensure a .500 finish at this point.

3 Vanderbilt vs 6 Mississippi St. - The Mississippi St. pinhead complex is going to show up at some point in this tournament. And is won't be at the end either. Well, maybe the Bulldogs end which will come right here against Vandy's experienced playmakers.

Saturday – Semifinals

1 Kentucky vs 4 Florida – Anyone in this league is just a sacrifice for Kentucky. Wildcats roll. Also, notice that these matchups consist entirely of teams from the old SEC East, as usual.

2 Tennessee vs 3 Vanderbilt – Tennessee may have beaten Vandy at home last Saturday, but I still think the Commodores are a better team and this game will show it.

Sunday – Final

1 Kentucky vs 3 Vanderbilt – Vandy is the only team in the SEC that can even harbor thoughts of beating Kentucky. That said, they will still be sacrificed for the 3^rd time this season, just not in as gruesome a manner as the rest of the league.

SEC Tournament Questions

Any bid-thieves?

None, at least of the auto-bid variety. Can anyone out there envision a scenario where anyone other than Kentucky or maybe fellow tourney-lock Vanderbilt wins this event? I didn't think so.

Most likely flame-out

Mississippi St. The obvious character and chemistry issues on this team could blow up at basically any time, including the first round.

How many bids for the SEC?

Kentucky, Florida and Vanderbilt are all going for sure. Alabama only needs to not lose to South Carolina. Beyond that, I think Tennessee and Mississippi St. fall one win short, leaving us with four SEC teams.

Picking against Kansas in the Big 12 is foolhardy, but I'm doing it anyway

Round 3 of my conference tournament previews hits on the Big 12 today.

Wednesday – First Round

8 Oklahoma vs 9 Texas A&M – How did the punditry at large miss so badly on Texas A&M in the preseason. The Aggies were a preseason top 25 team that was just awful, even from early on. Meanwhile, year 1 of the next Lon Kruger rebuild is ahead of schedule. That Oklahoma is ahead of schedule with an 8^th place finish should so everyone how far they have to go. That will be shown here too, even if Texas A&M still can't score.

7 Oklahoma St. vs 10 Texas Tech – This won't be pretty. Bad though they were at times, Oklahoma St. beat Missouri and Texas this season. Texas Tech probably couldn't beat the bottom of the Pac-12.

Thursday – Second Round

4 Baylor vs 5 Kansas St. - Baylor has been slumping. Kansas St. has been up and down. Given that I think I will go with the up and down team and pick the up, especially in an even matchup.

1 Kansas vs 9 Texas A&M – A&M can't score. Blowout awaits.

2 Missouri vs 7 Oklahoma St. - Yes, Oklahoma St. did beat Missouri in Stillwater. That game means nothing here. Missouri is going to be highly motivated to get a rematch with Kansas and also motivated to put the poor Cowboys in their place, again.

3 Iowa St. vs 6 Texas – For all the talent and thoughts about anything, there is a convenient explanation for how this game is going to go: Iowa St. has more talent than Texas, at least this season.

Friday – Semifinals

1 Kansas vs 5 Kansas St. - Commencing next round of Kansas voodoo hex over Kst. In 3-2-1...

2 Missouri vs 3 Iowa St. - This is just a bad matchup for Iowa St. The Cyclones just can't stop Missouri from scoring.

Saturday – Final

1 Kansas vs 2 Missouri – These two have played two absolute classics with both blowing what should have been sure wins on the other's home floor. This isn't a home floor. In fact, it is going to be about as neutral as it gets. Given that, go with the better team and I think Missouri is the better team.

Questions for the Big 12

Any possible bid thieves bubble teams should be worried about?

No way, no how. There are five locks in this league and while Texas may win a game or two, it won't win three. All of the teams playing on day 1 have no chance whatsoever of getting through this thing.

Most likely flame-out

Baylor has been struggling since the beginning of February (also coinciding with most talented played Perry Jones basically becoming invisible on offense). That won't change here, even if the Bears beat Kansas St. on Thursday.

How many NCAA bids for this league?

Five bids. The top five are all locks and the sixth team isn't getting in without some sort of run here. Considering I think Texas will lose its first game against Iowa St., I think the Longhorns are not getting in.

Syracuse to win Big East tournament (shocking, I know)

So for the power conference tournaments (and the Mountain West) I will be picking every game of the tournaments, bracket style. Enjoy reading my failures during my dry-run for next week. Today we start with the Big East.

Tuesday – First Round

9UConn vs 16DePaul – Connecticut is bad and plays like a collection of talented player that don't really like each other. DePaul is awful though. UConn wins.

12St. John's vs 13Pittsburgh – At some point Pitt might play up to its talent level again. Of course at some point needs to be now because there is no more down the road. Of course I think the Panthers will manage it, at least in this game since I don't believe in St. John's at all.

10Seton Hall vs 15Providence – Seton Hall is in meltdown mode. Have fun in the NIT guys.

11Rutgers vs 14Villanova – We just saw this game last week. It was ugly on Thursday and Villanova won. It will be just as ugly this week and Villanova will win again.

Wednesday – Second Round

8West Virginia vs 9UConn – An NCAA play-in game will be won by West Virginia. The Mountaineers just play better together, allowing them to overcome the Connecticut talent advantage.

5Georgetown vs 13Pittsburgh – Pitt is traditionally very good in this event. Georgetown often seems to not care. Combine that with Pitt having beaten Georgetown once this season and I'm picking the upset.

7Louisville vs 15Providence – Louisville can't score. Providence can. Providence can't defend, Louisville can. This will be a closer than expected game (though nothing like the 30 point beatdown Providence laid on Louisville in January). And Louisville will win, much to the dismay of those who like to see scoring.

6USF vs 14Villanova – USF has to have this game for its surprise NCAA Tournament hopes. It will get it, especially against this season's awful Villanova team.

Thursday – Quarterfinals

1Syracuse vs 8West Virginia – Syracuse is going to roll. West Virginia just doesn't have the talent to make this work.

4Cincinnati vs 13Pittsburgh – Pitt will be exhausted by this point after two tough games. And they will be dispatched by a Cincy team that still might need a win or two to make the NCAA's (thank you awful non-conference schedule)

2Marquette vs 7Louisville – Louisville can't score. Marquette can. Both teams can defend. This bodes ill for Louisville.

3Notre Dame vs 6USF – USF is going to the tournament. I just don't believe in Notre Dame, even with Mike Brey's great coaching job.

Friday – Semifinals

1Syracuse vs 4Cincinnati – Cincy just isn't going to be able to hit enough shots against the Syracuse zone to outscore the Orange and outscore it will have to be.

2Marquette vs 6USF – The run ends here for USF as Marquette is clearly better than the Bulls and will show it, sending USF right back to the bubble.

Saturday – Final

1Syracuse vs 2Marquette – A rare 1 vs 2 matchup will end with the better team hoisting the trophy. Syracuse is just a better team than Marquette and they have the size to exploit Marquette's lack of post defenders.

Tournament Questions

Are there any possible bid thieves that bubble teams should be scared of?

Probably not in this tournament. There are teams good enough at the bottom, but five game in five days is nearly impossible and I see no chance for anyone to pull that off for the second year in a row. Also, any of the bubble teams won't be bid thieves with a big run. If Connecticut, West Virginia, Cincinnati, South Florida or Seton Hall make the final, it will be in win or lose there.

Most likely flame-out

Georgetown. The Hoyas might draw the roughest matchup possible in its first game against the only lower division team in the league to beat them. Also, Georgetown just doesn't bother in this tournament quite often, preferring the time off when a tourney bid looks assured.

Can anyone beat Syracuse?

No. Nobody can. Had Fab Melo not been suspended I think we are looking at a perfect Syracuse team right now. With him, nobody comes close to this team.

How many NCAA bids for the league?

8. Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame and Louisville are locks. Cincinnati, USF and West Virginia will win their way in during this tournament (though either USF or West Virginia will be ticketed for Dayton and the First Four) while Connecticut and Seton Hall will fall short.

Conference Tournament Primer

Conference Tournaments. Some love them. Some hate them (me, me, me). Regardless, they are important, given they will give us a large chunk of the NCAA Tournament field. Some are more important than others though and given most fans are fans of power conference teams, I am going to give you the teams to root for and against in many upcoming tournaments. Tournament by tournament.

Power Conferences

ACC – March 8-11

Protected Seeds Rooting for: Favorites. A surprise winner here would certainly be seeded around 13 and could send a quality mid-major champion further down the bracket. No 3-seed wants to see a team like the MAC champion drawn across from them like Georgetown did as a three a few years ago (the Hoyas were stomped, badly).

Bubble Teams Rooting for: Favorites. There are bubble teams all over the place in this league. Other bubble teams understandably don't want those teams like Miami to win a game in the conference tournament.

Big East – March 6-10

Protected Seeds Rooting for: Any of the collection of middling bubble teams on the low end of the conference bracket. Those teams have tons of bad losses, but also good wins. Better to see them seeded as high as possible to get the teams full attention.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: West Virginia, Cincinnati and UConn to crash out early. Let's be realistic. The worst teams that have any prayer here are at the least on the bubble, but those same bubble teams will have difficult early matchups that could be quite costly if they become losses.

Big 12 – March 7-10

Protected Seeds Rooting For: Baylor to crash out early. Baylor crashing out could open a protected seed for somebody else. Other than that, the top of the bracket doesn't really care here (assuming Texas isn't winning this thing).

Bubble Teams Rooting For: Kansas-Missouri 3. Everybody wants to see this game and this would also eliminate a bid thief (say Oklahoma St. who has looked decent and beat both Missouri and Texas this season).

SEC – March 8-11

Protected Seeds Rooting For: Kentucky to dispatch of Florida and Vandy. The other teams up top don't want Florida and Vandy making a run at a top four seed and they prefer Kentucky go into the tournament as the heavy favorite. Flying under the radar is good.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: A tournament that actually goes to form. Remember this is the league that produced a bid thieving Georgia team not too long ago and nearly had Mississippi St. steal a bid a couple of seasons ago, falling in the final.

Big Ten – March 8-11

Protected Seeds Rooting For: Ohio St. The Buckeyes have been asleep at the wheel the last few weeks and have hurt their seeding. That said, nobody wants to play them so the higher seeds would prefer them be seeded higher in the bracket.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: An early Northwestern defeat. That happens, strike one team from the list.

Pac-12 – March 7-10

Protected Seeds Rooting For: Cal, Washington or Arizona. The rest of the league would be seeded in the 13-15 range and protected seeds really don't want a power conference team in the first round, even a bad one.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: Total chaos. Total chaos means we get a Pac-12 Tourney like a few years ago when only one of the top four seeds wins its first game. We get that this season and it could mean one-bid for this league.

Multi-bid leagues

Mountain West – March 8-10

Protected Seeds Rooting For: A Bid-Thief. The rest are threats to steal a protected seed still.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: UNLV to protect its home court. This should be self-explanatory. Also, an early Colorado St. loss wouldn't hurt.

Atlantic-10 – March 6-11

Protected Seeds Rooting For: An early Temple defeat. Temple is on pace for a protected top four seed as of now. Teams like Vandy, Florida and the Mountain West teams that want that top four seed want a Temple loss.

Bubble Teams Rooting for: A Temple sweep and mayhem other than that. This league is a mess. Someone other than Temple is going to get in, but nobody knows who. For that matter, if everything breaks right here lots of other somebodies could get in and no bubble team outside of this league wants that.

Missouri Valley – March 1-4

Protected Seeds Rooting For: Wichita St. vs Creighton 3 in the final. This would keep the Missouri Valley far, far away in the first round of the tournament. A bid thief would not.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: Ditto. There are two locks in this league and everyone else is a potential bid thief.

WCC – Feb 29-March 5

Protected Seeds Rooting For: They don't really care. Everyone from this league is likely to be seeded in an area where protected seeds will see them in round two if they are still around.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: Gonzaga vs St. Mary's 3. Once again, there are two locks. There is also a bubble team though, so an early loss for BYU wouldn't hurt.

Conference USA – March 7-10

Protected Seeds Rooting For: A Bid Thief (non-bubble). A thief would likely be around a 13 or 14 and be easy pickings for some 3 or 4 seed.

Bubble Teams Rooting For: A Bid Thief (non-bubble). A bid thief would also mean bad losses for the bubble teams in this league.

Everybody else should be fairly self explanatory.

The top teams want the worst team humanly possible to win the conference tournaments while the bubble teams want the best teams to win to remove them from the at-large pool.

College Basketball's Smoking Crater

It's February. Time to reassess the college basketball world as teams get an idea of what is needed to make the NCAA Tournament. Today we start conference by conference with the Pac-12.

What has transpired so far? Nothing good. The league is the joke of the national college basketball scene with writers and analysts everywhere piling on. The mid-major leagues that share the Western half of the US are eons better, at least at the top and the Mountain West is better at the bottom too.

Biggest surprise – Colorado has remained in the race, trailing leaders Cal and Washington by just one game. How much of this is the Buffaloes actually being good and how much is the rest of the league being horrible enough that a bad Buffalo team could stay in the race is up for debate though.

Biggest disappointment – Can I say everyone? No? OK, fine, Arizona. The Wildcats are barely in the RPI top 100 after being ranked in the preseason top 25. Just an awful year in Tucson from the young Wildcats where nearly everything that could go wrong without debilitating injuries or transfers has happened.

NCAA Tournament Locks – None. This league has only one lock. That would be the conference tournament champions. Everyone will be takings its chances. Yes, it is that bad.

Should be in the tournament – The regular season champion. Whoever emerges from the morass in the second half of the conference season should get into the NCAA Tournament, especially if that team is Cal.

Squarely on the bubble – Cal, Oregon, Washington, Stanford

These four (along with Colorado) are in ok position given the computer numbers as long as they put together huge runs in the second half of the conference season. Realistically, these teams (other than Stanford) are fighting for the league title and the likely bid that will come with it. As for Colorado, the Buffaloes lack quality wins (the best non-conference win was against Georgia and that is depreciating rapidly given the Bulldogs lost to Auburn last night) and have the worse RPI of any contender. A Colorado league title would likely become an indictment of the entire league and doom it to one-bid no matter what.

Autobid or bust – Colorado, Arizona, Oregon St., UCLA, Washington St., USC, Arizona St. and Utah

For a major conference with 12 teams, that is a huge list at this point in the season.

Final thought – This might take years to get out of. The Pac-12 is so bad this season that the perception will hurt for years to come (like what happened after the 1999 football disaster that set the league back for years in the National Title race until the rise of USC even though there were worthy teams in the league). Next year it appears that nobody other than maybe Arizona will have any expectations at all, putting the league squarely on par with mid-majors that have to prove themselves every time out against other major conference teams. Given that, the Pac-12 won't return to its former glory (it was only four years ago that six out of 10 in the Pac-10 made the tournament and a credible case for a seventh was available) until the stink of this season wears off, however long that takes.

Four Point Play College Basketball MLK Weekend Review

12 Most Important Results from the weekend (with Monday being a Holiday, there were extra games so I chose to make it part of the weekend too)

Northern Iowa 61, Missouri St. 60 – Huge win for Northern Iowa as it tries to recapture its early season form. For Missouri St., this loss was likely at at-large deathknell. 8 losses is too many in the Missouri Valley with so far to go in the season.

San Diego St. 69, UNLV 67 – Great game though the better team didn't win. UNLV shot poorly, especially in the first half and nearly salvaged a tough road win anyway. For San Diego St., this was a needed win after a month playing patsies and creampuffs. Now a trip to The Pit awaits.

Northwestern 81, Michigan St. 74 – Northwestern got the one back that it gave away with the home loss to Illinois. Now it needs some road wins. Michigan St. won't be hurt much and should learn from the experience. Its defense overplayed the perimeter all game long and paid for it on back door cuts all game long. Consider this a learning experience in case the Spartans run into a Princeton style offense down the road (like say Georgetown...)

Connecticut 67, Notre Dame 53 – Big road win for a UConn team that has struggled on the road. Snapping Notre Dame's 29 game home winning streak is a nice accomplishment.

Mississippi St. 56, Alabama 52 – Another slog in the SEC. Alabama normally wins these though the loss really doesn't hurt in the long run.

Oklahoma 82, Kansas St. 73 – Oklahoma might have life yet in the second best conference in the country. Kansas St. is still in good position, but it quickly falling out of the conference title chase with a 1-3 start (how brutal is this opening to conference play: at Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, at Oklahoma).

Dayton 79, La Salle 75 – Dayton is still up and down, but it appears to be one of the two best teams in the Atlantic 10 (along with reviving Xavier). La Salle has a chance to join that group and still is an upper echelon team, just not a title contender.

Colorado St. 95, TCU 89 (2OT) – Survive and move on. Colorado St. still has a shockingly high RPI of 22. If it can hold home court in Mountain West play against UNLV, San Diego St. and New Mexico, a surprise run at an at-large bid could be in the cards.

Ohio St. 80, Indiana 63 – Expected blowout. Indiana on the road is not nearly as good as Indiana at home and Indiana seems to be coming off cloud 9 of late (struggled against Penn St., lost to Minnesota and then blown out at Ohio St.).

Wichita St. 75, Indiana St. 65 – With how well Wichita St. is playing, the Missouri Valley looks like it has two solid at-large teams now (Wichita St. and Creighton).

Kansas 92, Baylor 74 – Everyone knew this was coming. No way is anyone ever making through the Big 12 undefeated other than maybe Kansas itself. The environments are way too difficult to run the table, as Baylor learned tonight.

Marquette 74, Louisville 63 – Louisville looks like a team in the throes of collapse. It shoud have never given up 74 points to Marquette considering it normally plays stout defense and everyone else in the country has figured out that Marquette's point guards can't shoot and when Marquette's point guards can't penetrate because the defense lays off them and makes them shoot, Marquette can't score. The Cardinals just don't have it right now and look like this years candidate for Big East team to go from top 10 to miss the NCAA Tournament entirely.

5 Worst Losses from the weekend

South Florida 56, Seton Hall 55 – Conference road games are tough, especially when the travel is as long as this game was.

Florida St. 90, North Carolina 57 – Normally this would go in the above category, but losing by 33 to a team that sometimes feels like it won't score 33 in a game is just awful. Given this result, I hesitate to call North Carolina a National Title contender. There is no way it can win six straight NCAA Tournament games if a game like this gets thrown in.

Boston College 61, Virginia Tech 59 – And here lie the NCAA hopes of Virginia Tech and Seth Greenburg. At least we won't have to hear him complain on the ESPN Selection Special this season.

Richmond 76, Temple 65 – Since beating Duke, Temple has gone in the tank. It seems to be like Dayton right now: up and down and all over the place.

Bradley 78, Northern Iowa 67 – Remember that big Northern Iowa win from the first entry above? This invalidates I and probably another big win too. Just a terrible loss.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Michigan vs Michigan St. - There are only four ranked teams playing tomorrow and the other two won't be heard from on this blog tomorrow unless they lose in some bizarre fashion. Thus, the other two get top billing since they are playing each other. Michigan has a chance to really jumble the conference standings in a league that looks as balanced as any in the country while Michigan St. can put some distance between itself and a couple of the contenders.

Florida St. vs Maryland – Bubble battle. Florida St. has traditionally used its big January home win over Duke or North Carolina (it seriously beat one at home every year) as a springboard to a nice run. Doing that again will be a tough assignment as Maryland has quietly become one of the better teams in the ACC.

Purdue vs Iowa – Which Iowa will show up? If good Iowa shows up, it could win, even on the road. If bad Iowa shows up, maybe Fran McCaffery will destroy another chair like he did against Ohio St. last week.

Final Thought on the long weekend in College Basketball

Baylor lost tonight (as expected). That leaves two undefeated teams. These two seem to have a better chance than nearly all the others in recent years to actually run the table in the regular season and its for far different reasons. The reasons for Murray St. are well chronicled. The Racers play in the OVC, home of exactly nobody, especially with Morehead St. down after losing Kenneth Faried from last season's surprise NCAA Tournament game winner. For Syracuse, the reasons are much more nuanced. For one, nobody in college basketball can match the depth of the Orange. For another, the Big East schedule makers did Syracuse a big favor (unknowingly). Looking at the conference schedule, Syracuse has managed to avoid road games with Seton Hall, West Virginia, Marquette and Georgetown. Combine that with a down year in the league and you get a schedule tailormade for success. Do I think Syracuse will go undefeated? No. They will lose one of the three game stretch of Georgetown, Connecticut, at Louisville in February or the road game at UConn after that. Still, its amazing that the possibility is even being considered.

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 12

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

St. Mary's 83, Gonzaga 62 – The king is dead! In every sense of the word, this was a blowout. At least on this night, Gonzaga had no chance, getting stomped despite only two points from St. Mary's leading scorer, Rob Jones. As we move forward this season, the Gaels have now become the favorite in the WCC after blowing both BYU and Gonzaga away already.

Duke 61, Virginia 58 – Virginia can certainly compete at the top of the ACC. Duke is still Duke. Nothing has really changed as both are NCAA Tournament teams and both should cruise through the rest of the ACC other than North Carolina fairly easily on the way to a semifinal rematch at the ACC Tournament.

Minnesota 77, Indiana 74 – Minnesota is back from the dead, ending Indiana's Assembly Hall win streak. Who would've thunk it. For Indiana, it was apparent that it was playing well above its head to reach the top 10. Are the Hoosiers a legit top 20 outfit? Yes. Top 10? Not quite yet.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Boston College 59, Clemson 57 – And thus the ACC below Virginia continues is further descent to Pac-12 level depths.

10 Biggest Games of the Weekend

San Diego St. vs UNLV (Saturday) – The Mountain West begins with the biggest game of the season in that league. UNLV has looked really good all season long while San Diego St. has been a surprise after losing a good chunk of the production from last year's team. Along with the games against New Mexico, this series will decide the league, much like the Gonzaga-St. Mary's-BYU games in the WCC.

Ohio St. vs Indiana (Sunday) – Poor Indiana. It lost at home to Minnesota. Now it gets to go on the road and play Ohio St. in a revenge game with the Buckeyes coming off a loss. This won't be pretty. Expect a come back to Earth beatdown.

Florida St. vs North Carolina (Saturday) – This might be the last, best chance for a fourth ACC team to step forward as a contender for an NCAA bid. The Seminoles have historically beaten either Duke or North Carolina at home around this time as a launching pad to a tournament bid. Given the weakness of the rest of the ACC, a win here could give Florida St. the confidence needed to pile up a high win total.

Northern Iowa vs Missouri St. (Friday) – One of three huge games in the Missouri Valley this weekend where the top six teams all play each other. Missouri St. doesn't have much of an at-large resume, but it is the defending conference champion. Northern Iowa is in better shape overall, but is hurting at 2-3 in the league. It needs a win here, because a loss would make seven or even eight league losses likely and that kind of record, even with good non-conference work, would need the auto-bid.

Stanford vs Colorado (Saturday) – A real live Pac-12 game that matters. Though it would have mattered more had Colorado not lost to Cal tonight. Given that, the Buffs need to win, or they will have already drifted back to the Pac while the Bay Area teams step forward as the class of this weak league.

Illinois St. vs Creighton (Friday) – Another major Missouri Valley game. Illinois St. is certainly 6^th in the top six pecking order in the Missouri Valley, but playing at home, the Redbirds could pick Creighton off and use it to launch forward in conference play, though the at-large hopes look slim no matter.

Indiana St. vs Wichita St. (Sunday) – The third MVC game of import and Wichita St. needs to win it desperately while Indiana St. is trying to remain in contact with the league leaders in league play.

Missouri vs Texas (Saturday) – Missouri got a little exposed by Kansas St. last week and Texas really needs a big win to revive its flagging NCAA Tournament hopes. Of course Missouri is much tougher to beat in Columbia and Texas, while talented, lacks the frontcourt personnel Kansas St. has to kill Missouri and its lack of inside play or depth.

Northwestern vs Michigan St. (Saturday) – These are games that need to be won to make an NCAA Tournament Northwestern. Of course Northwestern knows this, but it hasn't mattered. Still no NCAA Tournament berths in program history, though surviving this season's Big Ten in one piece very well might get the Wildcats their first.

Mississippi St. vs Alabama (Saturday) – This game is important for placement purposes in the SEC. IT is likely that one of these two will get the fourth bye in the SEC Tournament along with Kentucky, Florida (assuming the Gators right the ship) and Vanderbilt.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Why is Baylor getting lost in the discussion of perfect teams? The answer is the schedule. Syracuse is number one and has a cushy schedule for awhile. Murray St. has the curiosity factor to go with its pathetic Ohio Valley schedule. Baylor has back-to-back games against Kansas and Missouri coming up next week. Good luck with that Bears, though the media attention will remain the same because Baylor remains the forgotten undefeated.

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 11

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Alabama 69, LSU 53 – Different sport, same result. This one solidifies Alabama's standing in the top five of the SEC, a likely five bid league. It also leaves LSU in a world of hurt at the top team outside that group of five.

Temple 62, Saint Louis 57 – Huge win for Temple coming off the loss to Dayton. The Owls needed this one to show beating Duke wasn't a fluke. For Saint Louis, more up and down play (with more down that up recently) leaves it in need wins before the trip to Xavier in two weeks.

Memphis 60, Southern Miss 58 – Did you Southern Miss has a top 20 RPI? Therefore, this is a huge win for the largely lacking in quality wins Memphis, especially as the computer numbers weaken in Conference USA. As for Southern Miss, it would be in the tournament if the season ended today, but taking losses to anyone in Conference USA is a dicey proposition.

Worst Loss from Tonight

St. Bonaventure 81, Dayton 73 – As sure as the sun rises, Dayton will be all over the place. At this point would it surprise anyone if Dayton beat a team like Syracuse of Kentucky only to lose to a terrible Pac-12 team in a theoretical situation?

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

St. Mary's vs Gonzaga – Time for game one of the best series in the country outside of the power conferences. As usual, these teams are on top of the WCC, though winning this doesn't make a league title as automatic as it used to with BYU now in the league. That said, the winner here is likely a tournament lock barring a pretty bad collapse in February.

Duke vs Virginia – Time to see where Virginia fits in the ACC picture. It is obviously the 3^rd best team, but is it closer to North Carolina and Duke or Maryland and NC State? This game will answer that question.

Purdue vs Wisconsin – Purdue is a bubble team right now with a couple of bad losses (Butler and Penn St.). It has been better at home and the Boilermakers can bury reeling Wisconsin in the Big Ten with a win tomorrow. Almost a must win for the tournament hopes of the Badgers.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

What's happening at Pitt. The normally solid Panthers have collapsed this season. Tonight, the collapse reached its likely lowpoint: getting blitzed at home by Rutgers while scoring only 39 points. For the Panthers, there is likely no fix on the horizon. Nobody knows when Tray Woodall will be back and even he won't help this team a ton given the putrid shooting we saw tonight. When Jay Bilas refuses to tell his twitter followers what channel the game is on for their own good, you know its gotten, especially on offense.

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 9

Special Editor's Note: This is Post #500 on the blog. Thanks to everyone who reads.

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Cincinnati 68, Georgetown 64 – Just a huge win for Cincinnati after taking a bad loss against St. John's over the weekend. Now the Bearcats need to build on it. Meanwhile, the Hoyas, coming off it annual loss at West Virginia got beat the game after losing in Morgantown again. This happens every year.

Connecticut 64, West Virginia 57 – Speaking of the Mountaineers, they found out that UConn is a much better team at home than they showed on the road in losses to Seton Hall and Rutgers last week.

St. Mary's 87, San Francisco 72 – Another game, another win for St. Mary's as the Gaels attempt to wrap a bid up well before Championship Week this season.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Oklahoma St. 72, Oklahoma 65 – Ouch. Bedlam just confirmed that Lon Kruger has a long way to go at Oklahoma still and also confirmed that neither of these teams will be in the NCAA Tournament field.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Creighton vs Northern Iowa – This is a huge game for Northern Iowa. The Missouri Valley is likely to get two bids, but three is a stretch and four is really pushing it. Considering Northern Iowa is either 3^rd of 4^th in line right now, winning against the unquestioned top dog would be huge.

Illinois vs Ohio St. - Illinois continues to cruise along beating teams is should by closer than expected margins and losing to the better teams on the schedule. Ohio St. is one of the better teams, but Illinois has generally not played those better teams at home so far.

Kansas St. vs Baylor – Can Kansas St. knock off another undefeated team at home after crushing Missouri on Saturday? Possibly, but it will be more difficult. Baylor has better and bigger inside players than Missouri making them a more difficult matchup for Kansas St.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

As usual, the world forgot about college basketball while finishing up football season. I wish I hadn't considering how bad the LSU-Alabama game was. Evidently, we all missed a good game between Cincinnati and Georgetown during the football game.

Four Point Play Weekend College Basketball Review - Jan. 8

10 Most Important Results from the Weekend

Kansas St. 75, Missouri 59 – All of Missouri's warts were on display in this road game. And all of them have to do with either a lack of height or a lack of depth. The Tigers have just seven scholarship players and very little inside. When things start going bad on the road against a team with good post players (and Kansas St. has good post players), it can spiral out of control quickly if the Missouri three point shooters are even a little off their games.

Notre Dame 67, Louisville 65 (2OT) – We have more proof Louisville was way overrated at number four a couple of weeks ago. We also have proof Notre Dame remains a tough out now that it has adapted to playing without injured Tim Abromitis.

West Virginia 74, Georgetown 62 – As sure as the sun rises, Georgetown gets stomped in Morgantown. Consider the Hoyas among the happiest parties once West Virginia actually gets to the Big 12. Georgetown is likely sick of being West Virginia's stepping stool to its annual January-February run from the bubble to five or six seed in the tournament.

Michigan 59, Wisconsin 41 – And the Wisconsin collapse continues, this time with a listless and generally bad effort at Michigan. For Michigan, it is a quality win (for now) that helps in the bounce back from losing at Indiana.

Syracuse 73, Marquette 66 – Another game, another 23-1 Syracuse run and another win for Syracuse. If the Orange can bottle the effort and energy of its every game big run for the entire game, it will win the National Championship. Yes, Syracuse looks that good for stretches of most every game.

Arkansas 98, Mississippi St. 88 – The jury is now out on both teams. Mississippi St. has a good resume, but it appears as thought the Bulldogs will struggle in road games again. Arkansas hasn't been tested away from home, but winning this game at least makes it relevant in the SEC.

Xavier 67, Fordham 59 – Only important because Xavier remembered the feeling of winning. That said, Tu Holloway is still playing badly (as evidenced by his goose egg in the scoring column in this game) and he will need to be better to get Xavier to the NCAA Tournament.

LSU 81, Ole Miss 55 – With this result, we can extinguish what remaining at-large hopes Ole Miss had. We can also say that LSU at least has a chance if it can continue to play this well.

Seton Hall 66, Providence 57 – Providence had a golden opportunity to pick up a very high value win against a team coming off a big win at home. Instead, the Friars were beaten fairly soundly by the biggest surprise in all of college basketball this season.

3 Worst Losses from the Weekend

Tennessee 67, Florida 56 – A second appearance here in recent weeks doesn't bode well for Florida, a team that lacks inside players and is especially prone to streaky shooting.

Rutgers 67, Connecticut 60 – A second appearance here as a winner in recent weeks bodes well for the future at Rutgers. For UConn, this second road loss in a week shows the road will be incredibly difficult again, just as it was last season (remember that UConn finished 9^th in the regular season Big East standings mostly because it struggled mightily in road games) before catching fire on neutral courts.

Wake Forest 58, Virginia Tech 55 and Clemson 79, Florida St. 59 – And thus the ACC below the top three begins its best Pac-12 impressions.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

LSU vs Alabama in BCS Football National Championship Game – Yes, it's football, but it's also big for basketball. In recent years, top football schools have been using the football programs to help boost the recruiting of the basketball programs. Most notable among them are Florida and Ohio St. who followed up their national title game showdown in football with one in basketball as well. Obviously, both of these schools are a long way away in basketball, but both seem to be back on the right track this season after a few years in the wilderness. Winning here in football won't guarantee basketball success, but it certainly won't hurt at all.

Georgetown vs Cincinnati – Cincinnati also took a bad loss over the weekend to St. John's. Now, it needs to bounce back and quickly or risk falling off the bubble. Despite its recent hot streak since the Xavier brawl, Cincinnati is still the same team that lost to Presbyterian and was blown off the floor by Xavier before the brawl.

Connecticut vs West Virginia – For West Virginia, it got its annual home win over Georgetown last game. Can the Mountaineers continue the run as it has the last few seasons on the road? For Connecticut, getting home is a chance to get back on track after a lost week on the road. Both teams need this game in the muddled Big East race.

Final Thought on the weekend in College Basketball

Both now and when the NCAA Tournament roll around, there are always arguments about which system is better for crowning a champion: the BCS or the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Most come down on the side of the NCAA Tournament. That said, why can't both sports just be different. That is ok. The NCAA Tournament is great for college basketball, even if it nearly invalidates the whole regular season. The BCS is great for college football, even if it doesn't give us the neat little controversy free ending we say we want (we don't really because if that were the case, why are we still discussing BCS controversies years later while never mentioning the great NCAA Tournament finals played over the last few years). Both systems have their flaws that many would like to see improved (more restrictive field in basketball, blow the whole system up in football), but why not leave it as it is? Since the advent of the NBA age restriction, college basketball has begun to thrive once again while college football has continued its growth to become a monolith dwarfed only by the NFL in American sports. Once again, why not leave everything alone and be happy with that?

Four Point Play Daily CBB Review and Weekend Preview - Jan 5

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Indiana 73, Michigan 71 – At this point, killing Indiana under a barrage of 3's would be recommended in Bloomington. Don't do that and Indiana will figure out a way to win the game. The Hoosiers still need to prove these results can be had on the road, but there is no doubt the program is back to where it needs to be.

DePaul 84, Pittsburgh 81 – I don't think DePaul is an at-large contender, but neither is Pittsburgh at this point. The Panthers have suffered some bad losses and have now lost four in a row with little value in the non-conference to fall back on (Tennessee and Oklahoma St. are far cries from their recent solid selves). Now, Pitt must win against Rutgers or risk having this turn into an 8-game losing streak with at Marquette, at Syracuse and Louisville coming up.

Oregon 78, Stanford 67 – Ugh. Pac-12 hoops. At this point, it would be merciful to just say one-bid league and be done with it after the top four teams in the league all lost tonight (well done Cal, Arizona and Washington)

Worst Loss from Tonight

Penn St. 65, Purdue 45 – Strike Purdue from the at-large list. The profile just won't be there if games like this show up on the resume, especially with the loss to Xavier rapidly deteriorating and an ugly loss to a bad Butler team on the resume.

10 Biggest Games of the Weekend

Syracuse vs Marquette – When things aren't going well, this is not a trip that one wants to see on the schedule. For Marquette, with its biggest wins (Ole Miss, Washington and Wisconsin) losing value and having lost three out of five, things aren't going well.

Kansas St. vs Missouri – Another day, another test for undefeated and depthless Missouri. Eventually, the lack of depth in the front court is going to catch up with the Tigers. This game is a good possibility as Kansas St. has a pretty good front court.

Iowa vs Ohio St. - Which Iowa is the real Iowa. Is it the one that beat Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road over the last week, or is it the one that lost badly to Creighton, Campbell?!?, Clemson, Northern Iowa and Iowa St.? The Hawkeyes don't necessarily have to beat Ohio St. to prove its the former, but getting blown out wouldn't be good, especially at home.

West Virginia vs Georgetown – Georgetown continues its run through the top of the Big East. A win here on the road would confirm the Hoyas as the second choice behind Syracuse. For West Virginia, big home games like this are the ones needed for at-large bids.

Arkansas vs Mississippi St. - Is Arkansas for real? The Razorbacks have piled up a gaudy record against some awful opponents, losing bizarrely at home to Houston and getting torched on the road against UConn and Oklahoma. If the Razorbacks are for real, it beats a talented but vulnerable Mississippi St. team at home.

Temple vs Dayton – Temple and Dayton are the top two teams in the A-10 pecking order after their big wins on Wednesday and collapse of Xavier. The winner here is a the conference front runner and almost certain to get an NCAA bid barring a major February collapse.

Providence vs Seton Hall – A huge chance for Providence to get a big win after Seton Hall disemboweled UConn earlier this week. For the Pirates, its a chance to solidify its status as the most underrated team in the country (RPI 4, no bad losses, truckload of decent wins and a blowout win over UConn).

Michigan vs Wisconsin – Wisconsin needs to stop the bleeding. Yes, there is a big win over UNLV and a win over BYU on the resume. Not much else right now and already carrying two home losses, the Badgers can ill afford to fall to 1-3 in Big Ten play.

Minnesota vs Purdue – Huge game between teams trying to stay on the bubble. At this point, the loser can probably kiss all hopes goodbye.

NC State vs Maryland – Ditto. The difference being the much weaker ACC as opposed to the strong Big Ten Minnesota and Purdue play in.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Where are the bids going to come from? As of right now, I have no idea and that means some undeserving teams in the field come March. Part of the problem: the Pac-12 is historically awful and the ACC is way down. Normally, those leagues can realistically shoot for 10 bids between them. This year, it looks like there will six at the most. Worse yet, the other power conferences (besides the Big Ten) look unable to pick up the slack. Then, when delving further, there are not a lot of strong mid-majors. The Mountain West, WCC, Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley and Conference USA all look poised for the usual. The rest are all one bid this season. Where are the bids coming from?

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 4

After a few nights away because of travel, sickness and football, its time for the return of the 4-Point Play.

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Temple 78, Duke 73 – Just a huge win for Temple in its quest for an at-large bid should it be needed, placing the Owls on top of the Atlantic 10 pecking order. As for Duke, this just confirms what we already suspected. The team will win a lot of games but is inherently flawed. The result will be some odd road losses and a seed of 2 or 3 instead of 1.

Dayton 79, Saint Louis 72 (OT) – Another gigantic win for the inconsistent Flyers puts them second in the A-10 pecking order behind Temple. Now they need to not collapse in February (again) and they need middling BCS conference victims Wake Forest, Minnesota and Ole Miss to not collapse in conference play so those wins retain value alongside the win over Alabama. For Saint Louis, things still look ok, but not great as the collection of BCS conference victims looks a whole lot more impressive than it actually is this season (Washington, Boston College, Villanova, and Oklahoma).

Georgetown 73, Marquette 70 – Huge comeback for Georgetown that seems to validate the Hoyas even more. For Marquette, there might be some reason to worry now as the Wisconsin ship is taking on water right now, the losses pile up (that's three in five games) and a trip to the Carrier Dome awaits on Saturday. Uh oh.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Iowa 64, Minnesota 62 – This isn't a terrible loss, but Minnesota can't afford losses to anyone that isn't likely to compete for a tournament berth and Iowa (even with the win at Wisconsin to go with this one) isn't a contender. It appears that the loss of Trevor Mbakwe has finally caught up to this team.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Indiana vs Michigan – By far the biggest game of the night. Can Michigan succeed where Kentucky and Ohio St. failed: in Bloomington. I suspect someone will manage a win there before the end of the season, the question is who.

Oregon vs Stanford – Two of the front runners in the Pathetic 12 go at it with Stanford trying to get to 3-0 and establish itself a credible at-large case (Cardinal are only Pac-12 school with any semblance of a decent collection of wins with Oklahoma St. and NC State in its victim list) while Oregon tries to recover from getting trounced at Washington and get back in the chase.

Oregon St. vs Cal – Time to scrape the bottom of the barrel here. Thanks Pac-12 for stinking and making Thursday nights so bad. I have nothing else interesting to say about this game.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Xavier lost again tonight, this time to La Salle to drop to 9-5 on the season and 1-5 since the brawl with Cincinnati. What has happened to Xavier can now be explained, I think. The Xavier roster was one built upon being tough and scrappy. Being fighters. Now that there has been a real fight, that image and identity has been stripped. Without it, Xavier just doesn't know how to play. In effect, it looks lost on the court. Until the Muskateers find a new identity (or is allowed to regain its old one), the team is destined to losing games because of a lack of toughness and lack of fight like what happened tonight.

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Dec. 29

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Vanderbilt 74, Marquette 57 – The Vanderbilt team everyone expected this year finally showed up and it was a scary thing indeed as a very good Marquette team got squished at home. For Vanderbilt, this will likely be the game that turns this disappointing season around and it wouldn't surprise me if the Commodores went on a big winning streak. For Marquette, maybe it was a bit overrated after beating Wisconsin on the road, but there will be no major issues going forward.

Cincinnati 56, Oklahoma 55 – Oklahoma is surprisingly improved under first year coach Lon Kruger making this a much needed quality win for Cincinnati when it was needed and unexpected in the preseason.

St. Mary's 98, BYU 82 – BYU looked totally unprepared for the new road atmosphere it was about to face. Considering how good St. Mary's is, that was going to be a big problem. As for St. Mary's it now has the inside track to bid number two from the WCC. The question for BYU is if there is a bid number three.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Rutgers 85, Florida 83 (2OT) – Right now, a loss to a five-loss Big East team on the road doesn't look horrible. When that Big East team turns into a 16 loss version like everyone expects, it will be an ugly loss on the resume for Florida.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Dayton vs Ole Miss – This is a huge bubble game. Dayton could really use another name to win to go with its huge collection of both quality wins and bad losses. Ole Miss plays in the weaker end of the SEC schedule (no more divisional play, but divisional scheduling still remains), so a head-to-head win over a fellow bubble team might be necessary.

Seton Hall vs West Virginia – Seton Hall had its doors blown off by Syracuse to start Big East play earlier this week. Still, it is in good shape for a bid as long as that beating doesn't linger and Big East play doesn't eat it alive. Of course, West Virginia is a quality opponent that could accelerate the process of Seton Hall falling down the spiral.

Old Dominion vs Missouri – ODU has not gotten off to a great start (6-6), but the real attraction is undefeated Missouri in a true road game for the first time this season. How will Missouri respond in a close game and will they play well in the first completely hostile environment of the season (there have been three neutral site games)?

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

The carcass known as the Pac-12 finally got conference play under way and not a moment too soon. At least now, the league can beat up on each other and maybe even get a dominant team or two to separate from the pack and maybe get two teams into the NCAA Tournament.

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Dec. 28

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Baylor 54, Mississippi St. 52 – Baylor showed some real grit to take this game. The Bears would prefer an up and down high tempo game. Instead, they got a grinding, slug it out affair. Big props to the Bears for winning in a game that isn't suited to its style of play against a quality opponent.

Georgietown 71, Louisville 68 – The Hoyas are really good, but the story here is Louisville. The Cardinals haven't looked good in awhile and probably should have already lost a game or two. This and the coming beatdown against Kentucky will bring Louisville back to Earth and refocus them as they get healthy.

Syracuse 75, Seton Hall 49 – Seton Hall had been great this season. It still isn't ready for primetime, as this turnover laden performance showed. It doesn't help to have the best player on the floor if no one else on the roster could ever get off the bench for the other team.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Missouri St. 77, Creighton 65 – Ouch. Missouri St. is now 7-5 and Creighton stubs its toe to start Missouri Valley play. Not what the league or its standard bearer wanted.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Marquette vs Vanderbilt – Vandy has had all sorts of problems this early season. Now, it must win here to salvage whatever remains of its preseason credibility. For Marquette, life was good until getting smoked in Baton Rouge by LSU 10 days ago. It now looks to continues its rebound.

St. Mary's vs BYU – Welcome to the WCC BYU. St. Mary's is among the tougher welcoming committees that could be found (only Gonzaga would be tougher) and the winner gets the inside track to bid number two in what looks like a two bid league (though three is possible if everything breaks right).

Belmont vs Marshall – In the preseason, it was thought this would be Belmont's last chance to impress the committee before the inevitable power ranking slide in conference play. Now, its the other way around. Marshall remains on the fringe of at-large contention and needs major wins to really get in. Belmont is already prepping for the conference tournament after losing five times in the non-conference schedule.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Undefeated teams. 1976 Indiana was the last two finish a season undefeated. 1991 UNLV the last to take an undefeated record to the NCAA Tournament. This season, we are down to just four already with Indiana and Louisville's losses tonight. The most likely of the four to go undefeated: not Syracuse, or Baylor, or Missouri (heck, there's a decent chance Baylor and Missouri split with each other). No. It's Murray St, out of the Ohio Valley Conference for that exact reason: the Ohio Valley Conference. The Racers are undefeated and should be favored in all of its games the remainder of the regular season. Sadly, while that may get the Racers to the NCAA Tournament undefeated, I see no reason to believe there is a possibility of a perfect National Championship season. Everyone else plays too tough a competition and Murray St. just isn't tested enough to be ready fro deep NCAA Tournament games.

Four Point Play Dec. 27

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Illinois 81, Minnesota 72 (2OT) – Illinois desperately needed this after getting drilled by UNLV and falling short in a comeback attempt against Missouri. It almost blew it to a Minnesota teams that has adapted well after the injury to Trevor Mbakwe behind a greatly improved Ralph Sampson III. Both teams should be fine in the long run.

Notre Dame 72, Pittsburgh 59 – Uh oh for Pittsburgh. The Panthers haven't had a great non-conference run and losing to Notre Dame to start Big East play won't help. As for Notre Dame, this win might start the climb out of the hole the Irish dug for itself in non-conference play.

Wisconsin 64, Nebraska 40 – Wisconsin is really good. Previously 8-3 Nebraska is 8-4 and obviously not ready for primetime.

Worst Loss from Tonight

St. John's 91, Providence 67 – St. John's is not good this season. The win moved the Red Storm to 7-5. Providence was thought to be good, but nobody knew because its strong record was countered with a weak schedule. I guess we now know which way the Friars are going.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Syracuse vs Seton Hall – Seton Hall is one of the surprises of the season so far. Now, on the road, we get to see how legit the Pirates are.

Baylor vs Mississippi St. - Baylor continues its pre-Big 12 insanity tour with a game against top 15 SEC power Mississippi St. The Bears should win (Miss St. is overrated in the top 15) and carry a truckload of momentum into Big 12 play.

Michigan St. vs Indiana – Michigan St. has rebounded well from getting beat by North Carolina and Duke to start the season. Now, the Spartans get to test Indiana at home, the first really good team to get that chance (sorry NC State). I think the Spartans will pass with flying colors, leaving Indiana to doubt how it got to where it is.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

The RPI is a mess right now. I know we aren't supposed to evaluate these things until later, but there is no way Northern Iowa is a top 5 team or Long Beach is a top 15 team (though those teams are very good and a threat to win a game in the NCAA Tournament if given that opportunity). With that known, we need an alternative to the RPI. What that is, I don't know, but I do know the RPI is a flawed system, at best.

Four Point Play College Basketball Review - Dec. 23

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

UNLV 85, Cal 68 – Another nice notch for UNLV and yet another stinging failure for the Pac-12. You know its bad when the national media is calling you the WAC-12 and some might think its a complement.

Baylor 83, West Virginia 81 (OT) – Baylor is learning how to win the close game that it didn't win early last season. It also is being tested in ways that will only help come March. West Virginia showed very well and should comfortably make the tournament as long as conference road game don't overwhelm the youngsters.

Long Beach St. 64, Auburn 43 – Despite five losses, Long Beach St.'s schedule has been tough enough that an incredible run through the Big West might get them back in the at large conversation. This win over Auburn will be middling in the end, but its still a nice get along with the wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier with a shot at Kansas St. coming Sunday.

Worst Loss from Tonight

UCLA 71, Richmond 63 – I know I'm burying Richmond again (3^rd time in the last three weeks), but nobody had a truly bad loss and losing to bad Pac-12 teams (even improved ones) is never a good way to avoid this category.

EDIT: Evidently my brain malfunctioned when it skipped the Wagner win over Pittsburgh on the score website tonight. Needless to say, losing to NEC teams is never a good idea when looking for high seeds and respect as a Big East team.

Upcoming Schedule

Until Tuesday, only game in the Diamond Head Classic are on the schedule for anyone. Here are preview capsules for all remaining games.

Kansas St. vs Long Beach St. - The big question is if Long Beach St. can stand up to the length of Kansas St. inside. If it can, it can win this game because the 49ers have the advantage, though slightly, in the backcourt.

Auburn vs UTEP – I'm sure this is a game Auburn coach Tony Barbee wanted to avoid since he recruited much of the UTEP roster when he was the Miners head coach. As for the game, Auburn is one of the worst 8-2 teams anyone has ever laid eyes on. UTEP should win.

Clemson vs Hawaii – Clemson has looked bad since getting to Hawaii (and really for much of the season). Hawaii never was thought to be good and still isn't even after beating reeling Xavier. This game has the potential to look a lot like the Auburn-Hawaii game: close but ugly as heck to watch.

Xavier vs Southern Illinois – Ugh. Southern Illinois has totally collapsed from its level of a few years ago when it was a top five NCAA Tournament seed. At this point though, the Salukis might be in better shape than Xavier, where the program might be collapsing before our eyes after the Cincinnati brawl.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

As weird as the schedule is, the Diamond Head Classic fills a nice niche on the schedule. With nothing else going around Christmas, this has turned into a nice event, even if the arena is half empty and the games are on Christmas. Before anyone complains about the Christmas games, remember that the players are still on campus no matter what. I'm sure they would rather play and spend Christmas in Hawaii then spend it in the athletic dorms with practice on Christmas morning.

Four Point Play Midweek Review Dec. 22

Since we missed the last two nights (life sometimes intervenes in blogging), this will take on a more weekend review like tone.

Most Important Results Since Tuesday

Missouri 78, Illinois 74 – The Braggin' Rights game is one of the highlights of the season and this was no exception. Missouri did everything it could to blow this for quite some time, until it realized success was a possibility. Then the game turned back around and Missouri finished it off.

Ohio 76, Northern Iowa 59 – Huge win for Ohio that needed a quality win to validate its 9-1 start, now 10-1 after this win. For Northern Iowa, as long as the sting doesn't linger, this shouldn't hurt too much as Ohio has a chance to rack up a pretty gaudy record in the MAC.

Louisville 69, Charleston 62 – Another tough win for Louisville. The Cardinals keep winning these games, but D-Day is coming soon. Kentucky is on the horizon. Charleston is good, but its no at-large contender in a year that looks like it is going to have a lot of strong mid-major at-large contenders.

Gonzaga 71, Butler 55 – Another win for Gonzaga that could turn out to be a good win in the end even if Butler isn't in the tournament. As for Butler, this team looks a lot like the Xavier team from about 4-5 years ago that was young and not great. That team won its conference tournament and went to the NCAA's as a 14 seed, then started its run of A-10 championships and easy safe at-large passage the next season.

Baylor 72, St. Mary's 59 – Another good win for Baylor and another missed opportunity for St. Mary's.

UCLA 89, UC Irvine 60 – Notable only that UCLA is finally over .500 this season after its wretched start.

Long Beach St. 68, Xavier 58 – Finally another big win for the extremely overscheduled 49ers. Xavier very well might have tanked its entire season with that fight against Cincinnati. Even with Tu Holloway back, it looked bad tonight.

North Carolina 82, Texas 63 – For once, Texas lacks the talent to compete with North Carolina. Normally, it lacks the cohesion and chemistry needed.

Seton Hall 69, Dayton 64 – Another nice win for Seton Hall, a team that looks like this year's surprise Big East tournament team. For Dayton, the bubble is looking quite likely at this point.

Creighton 87, Northwestern 79 – If Northwestern is to ever make the NCAA Tournament, it needs to figure out how to win games like this one. Creighton, even with the loss to St. Joe's last week, is moving closer to NCAA lock.

Alabama 69, Oklahoma St. 52 – Nice turn around win for Alabama after struggling recently. For Oklahoma St., the NIT beckons, if its lucky.

Middle Tennessee St. 68, Ole Miss 56 – Big win for the at-large hopes of Sun Belt based Middle Tennessee, adding it to the wins over Belmont and UCLA. For Ole Miss, getting waxed like this really hurts.

Florida 82, Florida St. 64 – For Florida St. it's really simple. If they give up 80 points, they are screwed. The Florida guards can get to 80 quite easily if you don't guard well.

Kansas 63, USC 47 – The USC offense continues to not bother. Too bad too considering the defense is near elite level (and not just by Pac-12 standards).

Georgetown 70, Memphis 59 – Another decent win for Georgetown and more proof that Memphis should not see the top 25 in the preseason under any circumstance no matter how much talent until Josh Pastner figures out how to coach along with his excellent recruiting.

Worst Losses Since Tuesday

Duquesne 75, George Mason 64 – CAA teams can't lose to middling Atlantic 10 opponents and make the tournament. It makes them look like middling Atlantic 10 opponents that won't make the tournament.

Houston Baptist 72, Santa Clara 71 – Ouch, there goes the neighborhood for Santa Clara, a team that lacks quality wins and now needs a top 2 finish in the WCC (fat chance).

Louisiana-Lafayette 61, Central Florida 60 – And thus the good of the UConn win is erased.

UTEP 61, Clemson 48 – And the ACC continues its pathetic play below North Carolina, Duke and Virginia.

Rice 65, Texas A&M 58 – The Aggies just can't score. It will kill them against better offensive teams in conference play like Kansas, Kansas St. and especially Baylor and Missouri.

Butler 71, Stanford 66 – And here lies the carcass of the final Pac-12 team to not be featured in this section this season.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

UNLV vs Cal – This is the final chance for both Cal and the Pac-12. No pressure here Bears. For UNLV, this game could set it up on a path towards a top 4 seed, possibly even as high as two if everything breaks right.

West Virginia vs Baylor – West Virginia is no tournament lock, but a win here at a neutral sight would do wonders, especially since Baylor looks like one of this season's elite teams and currently is still undefeated.

Long Beach St. vs Auburn-Hawaii winner – Long Beach St. needs to win the Diamond Head Classic and smoke the Big West to get into at-large contention. It's opponent in the semifinals is still unknown as Auburn and Hawaii are playing a close game in the first half as I write.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Programs are fragile, especially below the Power Conferences. Xavier should take that thought to heart as it tries to refocus after getting stomped again, this time by Long Beach St. After that fight against Cincinnati, if Xavier collapses, it could bring about the collapse of the entire program. The reason is simple: perception is everything. The perception would be of thuggish losers below the top level of the sport. That would mean easy pickins for negative recruiters. And the fall of the program. Xavier, for program reasons, needs to steady the ship. And that needs to start tomorrow against the loser of the Auburn-Hawaii game.