There is one month to go in the season. That means one month until Championship Saturday. With conference seasons in full swing and some already nearing conclusions, it's time to reassess the major BCS conferences (ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, sorry Big East, you stink and Cincinnati is going to win you for the 3rd time in 4 years) starting today with the ACC.
Atlantic Division (in order of current standings)
Clemson (8-1, 5-1) – Exceeding expectations greatly, Clemson needs to finish strong and head into next year with momentum. Do that and they will be looked at as a National Championship contender to enter next season will all the returning talent. That said, this is still Clemson and the next stubbing of the toe could be just around the corner.
Predicted Finish: 11-1, 7-1 (wins over Wake Forest, NC State and South Carolina)
Wake Forest (5-4, 4-2) – A nice overachieving season to get back to bowl eligibility after a total disaster of a season last year. Next year might be the window of opportunity, at least talent wise, that 2006 was, but the ACC will be much stronger next season than it was then (remember that Wake Forest beat Reggie Ball led Georgia Tech in the CCG)
Predicted Finish: 7-5, 5-3 (wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt, loss to Clemson)
Florida St. (6-3, 4-2) – Playing well in obscurity right now and it will stay that way until next September. The Florida and Miami games are not going to be the tests or national showcases they normally are with all three programs not up to snuff this season. At this point, it looks like Florida St. is going to go 9-3 with no quality wins and just one bad loss. After they win the bowl game, they will be ranked in the top 10 to start next season and we will be right back where we were this season except the big non-conference game will be a not quite so big game against West Virginia instead of the Oklahoma tilt.
Predicted Finish: 9-3, 6-2 (wins over Miami, Virginia and Florida)
NC State (5-4, 2-3) – Tom O'Brien has done a decent job in season, all things considered. Unfortunetely for him, all things includes the offseason and his epic botching of the Russell Wilson situation, chucking his leader off the football. With the leadership void has come bad performances and inconsistency, even though replacement Mike Glennon has been good as Wilson's replacement.
Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (wins over Boston College and Maryland, loss to Clemson)
Boston College (2-7, 1-5) – Since the moronic firing of Jeff Jagodzinski a few years ago, this program has been trending downward. This season, it finally fell off the cliff, as expected. A career assistant with a base in defense has no chance to win here. He just can't get the necessary offensive talent to ever score enough points and that has been the problem here ever since Jagodzinski was fired.
Predicted Finish: 2-10, 1-7 (losses to NC State, Notre Dame and Miami)
Maryland (2-7, 1-5) – Total Disaster. Randy Edsall has run a solid program into the ground in one single season. Admittedly, this program is not as good as the 9-4 record last suggested. Then again, this team looks headed for 2-10 and it is much better than the 2-10 depths of two years ago and what appears to be now. Given the returning talent, there is no excuse and if I were a booster, I would want the AD and coach's heads on a platter, now. This is as complete a failure in the first year for a coach that I can remember, even worse than Locksley (who was somehow on the candidate list here, a fact that should get the AD fired on the spot) was at New Mexico.
Predicted Finish: 2-10, 1-7 (losses to Notre Dame, Wake Forest and NC State)
Coastal Division
Virginia Tech (8-1, 4-1) – The Hokies looked like a darkhorse National Title Contender in the preseason playing against a pathetically weak schedule. Then Clemson exceeded expectations and that weak schedule was given a legitimate big game that the Hokies of course lost because they lose every big game early in the season, every year. Then came a great shootout win over Miami to right the ship and its been smooth sailing ever since. This week at Georgia Tech is the most important game of the season as it could decide the Coastal Division race.
Predicted Finish: 11-1, 7-1 (wins over Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia)
Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2) – Had a bit of a lull against a Virginia team that is much improved and had a week to prepare and Miami where the Jekyll and Hyde Hurricanes had the good version show up. Then came the beatdown over Clemson (who didn't have the needed extra week to prepare for the triple option) and a return to the national rankings. Despite being in second place, Georgia Tech doesn't control its own destiny in the division, needed one more Virginia loss.
Predicted Finish: 8-4, 5-3 (win over Duke, losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia)
Virginia (6-3, 3-2) – The Cavs really seem to be hitting their stride in Mike London's second season, already becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. They should win this week against Duke, then the sledding gets very tough with Florida St. and Virginia Tech. Still, this team controlling its own destiny in the divisional race at this point and already being bowl eligible makes the season an unqualified success, no matter what happens from here given the low expectations.
Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (win over Duke, losses to Florida St. and Virginia Tech)
Miami (5-4, 3-3) – Who knows which Miami will show up from week to week. The suspended version lost to Maryland (in retrospect an awful loss) and there have been defeats to Kansas St., and the Virginia schools. Meanwhile, there have been surprise victories over Ohio St. and Georgia Tech. Given those results, making predictions about this obviously talented but flawed team seems absurd. They should win at least one more game to get bowl eligible though.
Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (wins over South Florida and Boston College, loss to Florida St.)
North Carolina (6-4, 2-4) – If only they didn't have to play NC State as a favorite, things would generally look better... In all seriousness though, this team and coaching staff has done a great job after the administration allowed last seasons scandal to drift into this season by firing the coach on the eve of preseason practice. That 7 wins looks likely is a testament to the assembled talent and a good coaching job.
Predicted Finish: 7-5, 3-5 (win over Duke, loss to Virginia Tech)
Duke (3-6, 1-4) – The Blue Devils really need to stop scheduling Richmond (3 losses in 6 seasons to 3 different coaches) considering they keep losing to the FCS Spiders. Other than that, the season has been a success, as least by Duke standards. They aren't going to be winless in conference and they aren't going to win the least number of games in the conference (thank the bottom of the Atlantic Duke fans). That is all that can reasonably be asked here given the difficulties at this program.
Predicted Finish: 3-9, 1-7 (losses to Virginia, Georgia Tech and North Carolina)
Biggest Games Remaining (Conference Championship Game excluded)
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (Nov. 10)
Wake Forest @ Clemson (Nov. 12)
Clemson @ South Carolina (Nov. 26)
Virginia Tech @ Virginia (Nov. 26)
Miami @ Florida St. (Nov. 12)
Coaches on Hotseat
Frank Spaziani (Boston College) – Spaziani is likely done, but Gene DiFilippo could surprise and bring him back, especially since best offensive player Montel Harris redshirted due to injury. It would be a mistake, but his return is possible.
Randy Edsall (Maryland) – Edsall isn't getting fired, but he has done a horrible job, taking a team that won nine games a year ago and had the preseason All-ACC quarterback and turning them into a bumbling mess with two terrible quarterbacks.
Everett Winters (North Carolina) – Only an interim, presenting the previous coach with a game ball after the opening win and losing to in-state rival NC State for the 5th time in a row make it unlikely he will be returning.
Tom O'Brien (NC State) – Stopped some of the bleeding by beating North Carolina (again). O'Brien botched the Wilson thing as mentioned above, but he could still reach the seven wins needed for bowl eligibility (needs seven because of two FCS teams). If he does that, O'Brien likely earns another season though it will be spent on the hotseat.
League Awards (so far)
Coach of the Year – Dabo Swinney (Clemson)
Player of the Year – Tajh Boyd (Clemson)
Freshman of the Year – Sammy Watkins (Clemson)
Biggest Surprise – Clemson has finally overcome the underachievement. That may not get them a conference title (the Conference Championship Game is likely to be a pick'em in a rematch against either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech), but it has set the program up well for the future.
Biggest Disappointment – Florida St.'s collapse. The losses to Oklahoma and Clemson were totally understandable. The loss to Wake Forest is still befuddling and has cost the league some much needed cache. Having Florida St. ranked while they steamrolled the weak underbelly of the league would have looked much better than having an unranked and unworthy Florida St. do it.
Predicted Bowl Games for the League (remember that bowl games don't have to go in order of conference finish)
Clemson – BCS Orange
Virginia Tech – Peach (I refuse to use corporate names unless necessary, sorry Chick-fil-a though I do love your chicken)
Florida St. – Tangerine (some of you might know this as the Champs Sports)
Georgia Tech – Sun
NC State – Belk (the bowl game in Charlotte that has always been an unfortunate corporate names just got even worse)
Miami – Music City
North Carolina – Independence
Virginia – Military
Wake Forest – will land somewhere in place of a conference without an eligible team, but I haven't the slightest idea where
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