Reassessing the Landscape - SEC

There is one month to go in the season. That means one month until Championship Saturday. With conference seasons in full swing and some already nearing conclusions, it's time to reassess the major BCS conferences (ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, sorry Big East, you stink and Cincinnati is going to win you for the 3^rd time in 4 years) continuing today with the SEC. Previously: ACC, Pac-12

West Division (in order of current standings)

LSU (9-0, 6-0) – Les Miles now needs to keep his team focused. Despite his incredible job of outcoaching Nick Saban last week, Miles has never had a perfect season. He will need it to seal a second National Championship. Other than a possible loss of focus (and we have seen this from Miles teams, notably last season's Tennessee game and the 2007 Kentucky game), the other issue is a possible quarterback issue. Jarrett Lee looked like a deer in headlights from early on against Alabama. I even remarked on twitter that if Lee keeps ducking and throwing off his back foot he would throw a couple of picks. Exactly what he did.

Predicted Finish: 13-0, 8-0 (wins over Western Kentucly, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia in SEC Championship Game)

Alabama (8-1, 5-1) – After losing the way they did, this team is ripe to be picked off by someone, but nobody on the remaining schedule has the personnel to manage it. Mississippi St. can't score enough and Auburn won't be able to stop Alabama enough. That said, this team should enjoy New Orleans this time around, something they didn't get to do the last time (2008 loss to Utah).

Predicted Finish: 11-1, 7-1 (wins over Mississippi St., Georgia Southern and Auburn)

Arkansas (8-1, 4-1) – Somehow are 8-1 and on the fringe of the National Championship race, but really need another Alabama loss. That said, there is no way they beat LSU on the road given the way we have seen them play in road games this season (let's be nice and say it hasn't been pretty).

Predicted Finish: 10-2, 6-2 (wins over Tennessee and Mississippi St., loss to LSU)

Auburn (6-3, 4-2) – Gene Chizik has done an incredible coaching job with this team, even moreso than last year. This team has a ton of talent on it, but it is really young and there are quarterback issues. How this team has gotten to six wins with the schedule it played is beyond my comprehension. It makes no sense.

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (win over Samford, losses to Georgia and Alabama)

Mississippi St. (5-4, 1-4) – Bulldogs looked great on offense early, but we didn't know how bad Memphis as a whole and the Auburn defense really were at that point. Then came LSU and the Tigers stuffed the Bulldogs in a burlap sack, beat them over the head with a baseball and dumped them down the river. I'm not sure if the Bulldog offense has extracted themselves from the sack yet, but they are out of the river now.

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 2-6 (win over Ole Miss, losses to Alabama and Arkansas)

Ole Miss (2-7, 0-6) – If Houston Nutt ever gets another job coaching I would be shocked. His ability to destroy every positive thing about a quarterback is nearly unprecedented. Given the talent Nutt inherited (Ed Orgeron may have been a terrible coach, but he's a great recruiter), the program should not be in this shoddy state.

Predicted Finish: 2-10, 0-8 (losses to Louisiana Tech, LSU and Mississippi St.)

East Division

Georgia (7-2, 5-1) – Cruise control through the SEC's weak underbelly continues. How on Earth did Georgia draw a West schedule without Alabama, LSU or Arkansas on it. Given that and the two losses to start the season, the jury is out on the Bulldogs. A loss to Auburn this week (likely gifting the East to South Carolina in the process) would at least give us what we want to know. Otherwise, it waits until the return trip to the Georgia Dome.

Predicted Finish: 10-3, 7-1 (wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech, loss to LSU in CCG)

South Carolina (7-2, 5-2) – There have been all sorts of issues and bizareness, but the season ultimately comes down to one thing: WTF were these guys doing against Auburn and how the heck did they lose?

Predicted Finish: 8-4, 5-3 (win over Citadel, losses to Florida and Clemson)

Florida (5-4, 3-4) – Given what we have seen out of Jacoby Brisset and Jeff Driskel, next year's offense doesn't look encouraging. I hope Charlie Weis and Will Muschamp are targeting an elite quarterback. He might get the chance to play as a freshman.

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (wins over South Carolina and Furman, loss to Florida St.)

Kentucky (4-5, 1-4) – Blowing out Ole Miss saved this season from spiraling into unmitigated disaster territory. That said, a bowl game looks increasingly unlikely given that Kentucky hasn't beaten Tennessee (even bad versions of Tennessee with decent Kentucky teams) since the mid-1980s.

Predicted Finish: 4-8, 1-7 (losses to Vanderbilt, Georgia and Tennessee)

Vanderbilt (4-5, 1-5) – Ditto Kentucky minus the unmitigated disaster part. Given a couple of years more and Vandy might be a legit 7-8 win team. And James Franklin will be a very rich man, coaching somewhere else. Possibly even at Maryland, where he was Coach in Waiting until bailing before being fired with the entire coaching staff just to start over from nothing.

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 3-5 (wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, loss to Wake Forest)

Tennessee (4-5, 0-5) – If it could go wrong in SEC play for Tennessee it will. For some reason, this team is cursed (blame Lane Kiffin if you like) and even when they do things right, it turns out wrong. Somehow though, they can still make a bowl game, even after they get steamrolled by Arkansas Saturday Night. They won't though because of the injuries.

Predicted Finish: 5-7, 1-7 (win over Kentucky, losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt)

Reassessing the Landscape - Pac-12

There is one month to go in the season. That means one month until Championship Saturday. With conference seasons in full swing and some already nearing conclusions, it's time to reassess the major BCS conferences (ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, sorry Big East, you stink and Cincinnati is going to win you for the 3^rd time in 4 years) continuing today with the Pac-12. Previously: ACC

North Division (in order of current standings)

Stanford (9-0, 7-0) – David Shaw has done a great job keeping the system going in the post-Jim Harbaugh era. It helps to have Andrew Luck, but he has done a good job keeping things rolling even in spite of injuries. For this team, the season comes down to this Saturday night against Oregon. Win and the Rose Bowl will likely be the minimum.

Predicted Finish: 12-1, 9-0 (wins over Oregon, Cal and Arizona St. in the Pac-12 Championship Game; loss to Notre Dame)

Oregon (8-1, 6-0) – This program is great, but they probably should avoid quality opponents in openers. When teams have a long period to prepare (more than a bye meaning bowl games and season openers), they can grind the offense to a halt with a good defensive line. Other than that, this offense has been its usual unstoppable self, blowing away Pac-12 defense after Pac-12 defense. Of course that means I am likely to pick against Oregon in the bowl game wherever they play if the opponent has any sort of defense. Until Oregon can figure that problem out, there is a ceiling on how high they can rise.

Predicted Finish: 10-2, 8-1 (wins over USC and Oregon St., loss to Stanford))

Washington (6-3, 4-2) – The one big positive surprise in a league filled with disappointing teams is this one. Steve Sarkisian has done an incredible job of getting Keith Price ready to play this season after he looked overwhelmed in his only action last season (at Oregon when Jake Locker was injured). Considering Locker was a first-round pick, I'm shocked that Price has been better than him in pretty much every way. Now that Sarkisian has his offense in place, he can work on the still woeful defense, especially against the run (as Stanford and Nebraska so ably exploited).

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 5-4 (win over Washington St., losses to USC and Oregon St.)

Cal (5-4, 2-4) – We basically have the same Cal team that we have had every year since the 2007 collapse. Spotty quarterback play means the playmakers can't get the ball when and where needed and the defense is good at home and bad on the road. The combination makes for a team near .500 and not a team like the 2004-early 2007 juggernauts that this program produced. That said, Jeff Tedford deserves every opportunity to turn it around again as this program was at the Indiana/Kansas level of bad and on probation when Tedford got there.

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 3-6 (win over Oregon St., losses to Stanford and Arizona St.)

Oregon St. (2-7, 2-4) – This season crashed and burned from the start. Losing to middling FCS opponents generally can't be recovered from, especially when the next week is a trip to Wisconsin (that started with a negative yardage punt). At this point, the season high is sending Arizona coach Mike Stoops to the unemployment line. When that is the only thing of note and Oregon remains on the schedule to blow you up again, it's been a bad year.

Predicted Finish: 3-9, 3-6 (win over Washington, losses to Cal and Oregon)

Washington St. (3-6, 1-5) – The Cougars have shown marked improvement, but they're still awful. The reason they have been so competitive in most games other than their own improvement is the cliff that much of the rest of the league seemed to drive off of after last season.

Predicted Finish: 3-9, 1-8 (losses to Arizona St., Utah and Washington)

South Division

UCLA (5-4, 4-2) – This team is an argument for what must be done eventually should be done immediately. If the powers that be believed Rick Neuheisel needed to go, they should have fired him right after that embarrassing loss to Arizona. Now, there is a chance Neuheisel will win his way into another year on the job, much to the consternation of many fans in Westwood. On the positive side, Neuheisel has a healthy, established quarterback for the first time in his tenure and it is doing wonders for the offense that suddenly looks like it can move the ball (much as it did early last season before the Pac-12 figured out the Bruins couldn't throw).

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 5-4 (win over Colorado, losses to Utah and USC)

Arizona St. (6-3, 4-2) – What a blow it. Losing to UCLA last week was inexcusable and all the good will obtained by Dennis Erickson and his staff by beating USC and Missouri early on has been squandered. I know this team has suffered more injuries than most, but most of the key players, especially on offense are still around. Given what we know now, there have been two unforgivable losses for this team (Illinois and UCLA), just like every year.

Predicted Finish: 8-5, 6-3 (wins over Washington St. and Cal, losses to Arizona and Stanford in Pac-12 Championship Game)

USC (7-2, 4-2) – It's been a good season at USC and if everyone comes back, there is a chance for one last hurrah before the scholarship losses really kick in a couple of years from now. There are still some troublesome things, but Lane Kiffin has certainly exceeded expectations this season. That said, Monte Kiffin and his defense are still not good, no matter what the Los Angeles media seems to think.

Predicted Finish: 9-3, 6-3 (wins over Washington and UCLA, loss to Oregon)

Utah (5-4, 2-4) – Before anyone brings it up, this is not a team that can't compete in a BCS conference. It is a team that is rebuilding and doesn't reload like a powerhouse. No shame there other than having the rebuilding year coincide with the first year in a new conference. Now that the schedule has eased up, the Utes have looked better and could help determine the division winner even though they won't be winning it themselves.

Predicted Finish: 8-4, 5-4 (wins over UCLA, Washington St. and Colorado)

Arizona (2-7, 1-6) – This was also a schedule induced nightmare, much like Utah. Last season started 7-1 and finished with Stanford, Oregon, USC, Arizona St. and Oklahoma St. in the bowl game. Other than Arizona St., the Wildcats weren't favorites against any of those teams and would not at any point have been favorites against any of those teams. This season, after the obligatory FCS sacrifice, the Wildcats played Oklahoma St., Stanford, Oregon and USC. Look familiar? That would explain the awful start, no matter what anyone thinks of the job Mike Stoops did or didn't do.

Predicted Finish: 5-7, 3-6 (wins over Colorado, Arizona St. and Louisiana-Lafayette)

Colorado (1-9, 0-6) – Obviously nobody knew quite the extent of the issues that infested Colorado under Dan Hawkins. No matter the coach, this team is facing a long rebuilding process as the talent level is abominable. At this point, Colorado would be a midpack team in the Mountain West or the WAC, making them a doormat here.

Predicted Finish: 1-12, 0-9 (losses to Arizona, UCLA and Utah)

Reassessing the Landscape - ACC

There is one month to go in the season. That means one month until Championship Saturday. With conference seasons in full swing and some already nearing conclusions, it's time to reassess the major BCS conferences (ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, sorry Big East, you stink and Cincinnati is going to win you for the 3^rd time in 4 years) starting today with the ACC.

Atlantic Division (in order of current standings)

Clemson (8-1, 5-1) – Exceeding expectations greatly, Clemson needs to finish strong and head into next year with momentum. Do that and they will be looked at as a National Championship contender to enter next season will all the returning talent. That said, this is still Clemson and the next stubbing of the toe could be just around the corner.

Predicted Finish: 11-1, 7-1 (wins over Wake Forest, NC State and South Carolina)

Wake Forest (5-4, 4-2) – A nice overachieving season to get back to bowl eligibility after a total disaster of a season last year. Next year might be the window of opportunity, at least talent wise, that 2006 was, but the ACC will be much stronger next season than it was then (remember that Wake Forest beat Reggie Ball led Georgia Tech in the CCG)

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 5-3 (wins over Maryland and Vanderbilt, loss to Clemson)

Florida St. (6-3, 4-2) – Playing well in obscurity right now and it will stay that way until next September. The Florida and Miami games are not going to be the tests or national showcases they normally are with all three programs not up to snuff this season. At this point, it looks like Florida St. is going to go 9-3 with no quality wins and just one bad loss. After they win the bowl game, they will be ranked in the top 10 to start next season and we will be right back where we were this season except the big non-conference game will be a not quite so big game against West Virginia instead of the Oklahoma tilt.

Predicted Finish: 9-3, 6-2 (wins over Miami, Virginia and Florida)

NC State (5-4, 2-3) – Tom O'Brien has done a decent job in season, all things considered. Unfortunetely for him, all things includes the offseason and his epic botching of the Russell Wilson situation, chucking his leader off the football. With the leadership void has come bad performances and inconsistency, even though replacement Mike Glennon has been good as Wilson's replacement.

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (wins over Boston College and Maryland, loss to Clemson)

Boston College (2-7, 1-5) – Since the moronic firing of Jeff Jagodzinski a few years ago, this program has been trending downward. This season, it finally fell off the cliff, as expected. A career assistant with a base in defense has no chance to win here. He just can't get the necessary offensive talent to ever score enough points and that has been the problem here ever since Jagodzinski was fired.

Predicted Finish: 2-10, 1-7 (losses to NC State, Notre Dame and Miami)

Maryland (2-7, 1-5) – Total Disaster. Randy Edsall has run a solid program into the ground in one single season. Admittedly, this program is not as good as the 9-4 record last suggested. Then again, this team looks headed for 2-10 and it is much better than the 2-10 depths of two years ago and what appears to be now. Given the returning talent, there is no excuse and if I were a booster, I would want the AD and coach's heads on a platter, now. This is as complete a failure in the first year for a coach that I can remember, even worse than Locksley (who was somehow on the candidate list here, a fact that should get the AD fired on the spot) was at New Mexico.

Predicted Finish: 2-10, 1-7 (losses to Notre Dame, Wake Forest and NC State)

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech (8-1, 4-1) – The Hokies looked like a darkhorse National Title Contender in the preseason playing against a pathetically weak schedule. Then Clemson exceeded expectations and that weak schedule was given a legitimate big game that the Hokies of course lost because they lose every big game early in the season, every year. Then came a great shootout win over Miami to right the ship and its been smooth sailing ever since. This week at Georgia Tech is the most important game of the season as it could decide the Coastal Division race.

Predicted Finish: 11-1, 7-1 (wins over Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia)

Georgia Tech (7-2, 4-2) – Had a bit of a lull against a Virginia team that is much improved and had a week to prepare and Miami where the Jekyll and Hyde Hurricanes had the good version show up. Then came the beatdown over Clemson (who didn't have the needed extra week to prepare for the triple option) and a return to the national rankings. Despite being in second place, Georgia Tech doesn't control its own destiny in the division, needed one more Virginia loss.

Predicted Finish: 8-4, 5-3 (win over Duke, losses to Virginia Tech and Georgia)

Virginia (6-3, 3-2) – The Cavs really seem to be hitting their stride in Mike London's second season, already becoming bowl eligible for the first time since 2007. They should win this week against Duke, then the sledding gets very tough with Florida St. and Virginia Tech. Still, this team controlling its own destiny in the divisional race at this point and already being bowl eligible makes the season an unqualified success, no matter what happens from here given the low expectations.

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (win over Duke, losses to Florida St. and Virginia Tech)

Miami (5-4, 3-3) – Who knows which Miami will show up from week to week. The suspended version lost to Maryland (in retrospect an awful loss) and there have been defeats to Kansas St., and the Virginia schools. Meanwhile, there have been surprise victories over Ohio St. and Georgia Tech. Given those results, making predictions about this obviously talented but flawed team seems absurd. They should win at least one more game to get bowl eligible though.

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (wins over South Florida and Boston College, loss to Florida St.)

North Carolina (6-4, 2-4) – If only they didn't have to play NC State as a favorite, things would generally look better... In all seriousness though, this team and coaching staff has done a great job after the administration allowed last seasons scandal to drift into this season by firing the coach on the eve of preseason practice. That 7 wins looks likely is a testament to the assembled talent and a good coaching job.

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 3-5 (win over Duke, loss to Virginia Tech)

Duke (3-6, 1-4) – The Blue Devils really need to stop scheduling Richmond (3 losses in 6 seasons to 3 different coaches) considering they keep losing to the FCS Spiders. Other than that, the season has been a success, as least by Duke standards. They aren't going to be winless in conference and they aren't going to win the least number of games in the conference (thank the bottom of the Atlantic Duke fans). That is all that can reasonably be asked here given the difficulties at this program.

Predicted Finish: 3-9, 1-7 (losses to Virginia, Georgia Tech and North Carolina)

Biggest Games Remaining (Conference Championship Game excluded)

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (Nov. 10)

Wake Forest @ Clemson (Nov. 12)

Clemson @ South Carolina (Nov. 26)

Virginia Tech @ Virginia (Nov. 26)

Miami @ Florida St. (Nov. 12)

Coaches on Hotseat

Frank Spaziani (Boston College) – Spaziani is likely done, but Gene DiFilippo could surprise and bring him back, especially since best offensive player Montel Harris redshirted due to injury. It would be a mistake, but his return is possible.

Randy Edsall (Maryland) – Edsall isn't getting fired, but he has done a horrible job, taking a team that won nine games a year ago and had the preseason All-ACC quarterback and turning them into a bumbling mess with two terrible quarterbacks.

Everett Winters (North Carolina) – Only an interim, presenting the previous coach with a game ball after the opening win and losing to in-state rival NC State for the 5^th time in a row make it unlikely he will be returning.

Tom O'Brien (NC State) – Stopped some of the bleeding by beating North Carolina (again). O'Brien botched the Wilson thing as mentioned above, but he could still reach the seven wins needed for bowl eligibility (needs seven because of two FCS teams). If he does that, O'Brien likely earns another season though it will be spent on the hotseat.

League Awards (so far)

Coach of the Year – Dabo Swinney (Clemson)

Player of the Year – Tajh Boyd (Clemson)

Freshman of the Year – Sammy Watkins (Clemson)

Biggest Surprise – Clemson has finally overcome the underachievement. That may not get them a conference title (the Conference Championship Game is likely to be a pick'em in a rematch against either Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech), but it has set the program up well for the future.

Biggest Disappointment – Florida St.'s collapse. The losses to Oklahoma and Clemson were totally understandable. The loss to Wake Forest is still befuddling and has cost the league some much needed cache. Having Florida St. ranked while they steamrolled the weak underbelly of the league would have looked much better than having an unranked and unworthy Florida St. do it.

Predicted Bowl Games for the League (remember that bowl games don't have to go in order of conference finish)

Clemson – BCS Orange

Virginia Tech – Peach (I refuse to use corporate names unless necessary, sorry Chick-fil-a though I do love your chicken)

Florida St. – Tangerine (some of you might know this as the Champs Sports)

Georgia Tech – Sun

NC State – Belk (the bowl game in Charlotte that has always been an unfortunate corporate names just got even worse)

Miami – Music City

North Carolina – Independence

Virginia – Military

Wake Forest – will land somewhere in place of a conference without an eligible team, but I haven't the slightest idea where