Showing posts with label College Basketball Nightly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Basketball Nightly. Show all posts

Apr 2, 2012

NCAA Full Tournament Review – Because only reviewing Kentucky's win over Kansas in a sloppy game would be dull

Champion: Kentucky. The Wildcats were the best team all season long and that didn't change during the tournament. Relative to the competition, this is one of the most dominant teams in recent memory (anyone who doubts that after the relatively underwhelming second half in the title game needs to go search for the remains of Baylor after the Elite Eight). Even during the great game with Indiana (more on that later), there was never really a sense that Kentucky wasn't in control. If only Christian Watford hadn't beaten the buzzer in the first game back in December, we might have seen a perfect team (believe me Kentucky would have had more urgency against Vanderbilt in the SEC Tourney if perfection was still on the line).

Best Player: Anthony Davis, Kentucky. He just takes over games on defense and his offense is more than good enough to allow things to run through him. Playing against him is nearly unfair, especially if Kentucky's 3-point shooters are on their game. Amazingly, he was the best player on the floor by a wide margin in the championship game even though he didn't score in the first half.

Best Game: Kansas over North Carolina in the Elite Eight. Don't let the score color the thought process. This was a great game where Kansas made a huge run at the end. The first half was drawing Kentucky-Duke 92 comparisons on twitter (crazy but still, and most likely because of the lackluster tournament to that point) and was incredible basketball. The second half was a tight defensive affair that still held all of its entertainment value. Admittedly, this game doesn't win most years, but there were no truly fantastic moments in this year's tournament that could elevate some other game.

Honorable Mentions Best Game:
Kentucky over Indiana in the Sweet 16 – An incredible game of offensive execution on both sides. Still, I never got the sense Kentucky was really in trouble.
Indiana over VCU 61 in the Third Round (ugh) – Good, well-played slow tempo game where Indiana just made the right plays down the stretch and VCU couldn't win it at the buzzer.
North Carolina over Ohio in the Sweet 16 – A game made by the absence of point guard Kendall Marshall still was great theater down the stretch as Ohio threw everything it had at the favored Tar Heels before succumbing in overtime.

Biggest Upset: Norfolk St. over Missouri in Second Round. This was just inconceivable to pretty much everyone, particularly those that watched Missouri disembowel Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament final just a few days earlier. This game was bigger than Lehigh's 15 over 2 upset over Duke for a few reasons. For one, the efficiency stats actually showed that Norfolk St. was overseeded at 15 and should have been in a play in game while Lehigh looked more like a 14 seed. Second, Missouri was being passed at least to the Elite Eight if not the Final Four while Duke was considered a potential upset victim as early as a possible second round matchup with Xavier. Third, Norfolk St. played one of the worst tournament games in history the next time out against Florida. The Gators shut the engine down before halftime and won by 34. This is normal in 1 vs 16 games, but Florida was a 7 seed (if a 7 that underachieved during the regular season).

Best Comeback: 3-way tie between Louisville over Florida in the Elite Eight, BYU over Iona in the First Four and Western Kentucky over Mississippi Valley St. in the First Four. For Louisville, they turned up the pressure and Florida wilted late under it at the Elite Eight stage, just as they did last season against Butler. BYU coming back against Iona seemed inconceivable at one point. The Cougars were down 25 and Iona was basically shooting against air. Then BYU got the defense going and Iona couldn't hit the water from a boat. The best thing, it wasn't a change at halftime. It basically changed on a dime with no rhyme, reason or adjustments. Western Kentucky's comeback might have been the most improbable of them all with no reason to believe there was hope down 16 with only 37 points on the board with 5 minutes to go. The battle was to see if the Hilltoppers could reach 50 (my money would have been on no), not if they could win the game like they did.

Best Conference: SEC. It helps the have the champs, but the others in the tournament also puller their weight. Florida took advantage of some hapless teams and good matchups to come within a minute of the Final Four as a 7-seed. Alabama looked good in a one-point loss to Creighton and Vanderbilt lost at the expectation for its seed. Overall, it looks good while others were all over the map results wise.

Worst Conference: Mountain West. And thus ends a pathetic year for Western basketball. Nobody Rocky Mountains west managed to make the Sweet 16 and the standard bearer for this season was the MWC. From the league, only New Mexico showed well, pushing eventual Final Four participant Louisville to the final minute after winning its first game. Everyone else was bad. Colorado St. was meekly dispatched by Murray St. San Diego St. was upset by NC State and UNLV was awful for most of the game in handing the smoking crater (that's Pac-12 for those who don't know) its only win. Just horrid.

Other thoughts:

This normally would be a much longer post, but I can't bring myself to type that much more. The tournament, for all the lauding the committee got for getting the bracket right, ended up with a generally boring and awful tournament.

The whole tournament was a boring march to the Kentucky coronation. Even when Louisville tied the game in the Final Four, there was never a sense Kentucky was even in trouble. It dulled the proceedings everywhere, especially with no buzzer beaters or great moments late in any other game.

Missouri's loss and Louisville's ascension from the West stripped the tournament of its entertainment value. Both team got a lot of coverage during the regular season. Everybody loved watching Missouri and its entertaining brand of basketball. Nobody liked watching and its limited roster play up tempo games that still didn't reach 60 points. With Missouri gone and Louisville advancing, it bored the nation and annoyed many who picked Missouri to the Final Four and Louisville as an early upset victim (I only did one of those).

The committee needs to stop matching non-power conference teams in the first round when possible. There was no need for Wichita St./VCU or Saint Louis/Memphis (the games involving the Mountain West and non power teams were largely unavoidable given that ¾ of the ones in the tournament were seeded either 6 or 11 and the other one was a 5 meaning there was no ability to seed adjust). In addition, I think BYU-Iona and Cal-USF should have had the matchups juggled in the First Four. It would make everyone happier because everyone likes seeing the small schools take shots at the bigger ones (and lose) and it would also lend more legitimacy to a team like Murray St. that beat Colorado St. but no power conference teams the entire season.

Congrats to Kentucky. Hopefully next year is better.

Mar 15, 2012

NCAA Tournament Opening Thursday in Review

Best game of the day – Syracuse 72, UNC-Asheville 65
For much of the game, it actually looked like Asheville was going to win. Then the zebras got involved. Let it be noted that the day a 16 finally beats a 1, it will be in a year when a non-Power Conference school happens to be a 1 seed. And in that year, it will be in part because the zebras did not get involved. As an aside, that this was the best game of the day shows how awful a day it was, and don't anyone trying to spin it make you believe otherwise. And for those that didn't see it, let's just say if you had either a rooting or betting interest in Asheville winning, you would be screaming... still... 12 hours after the fact.
Honorable Mention – Colorado 68, UNLV 64
Only notable because we got one of the very few frantic finishes with Colorado failing miserably down the stretch against the UNLV press but having just enough legs to avoid coughing up a 20 point lead.

Upset of the day – VCU 62, Wichita St. 59
Considering there were all of two seed upsets all day, one of them had to win. And considering some were thinking Wichita St. had the best chance of anyone to beat Kentucky in this tournament (ha ha to the people who have mancrushes on Pomeroy and his efficiency ratings, its only a tool, just like the RPI and our own eyes), this counts, even if it was perpetuated by upset king VCU (of the Final Four run from the First Four just last season).
Honorable Mention – Colorado 68, UNLV 64
The 22-4 run UNLV ran off to get back in the game after being down 20 was what everyone expected here. Not the other 35 minutes of play where UNLV looked like a bad Pac-12 team.

Player of the day – Jae Crowder, Marquette
25 points, 16 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 steals. That is one heck of game in an easy Marquette win over BYU. And if someone wants to question me, look at the stat line again.
Honorable Mention – Royce White, Iowa St.
Best player on the court in the Iowa St/Connecticut game. 15 points, 13 rebounds and playing the point from the power forward position, effectively. Great game for White.

Coach of the Day – Mark Few, Gonzaga
For all of Gonzaga's reputation as a bracket buster and powerful team in the tournament, the results really haven't been there for quite some time. Even the Sweet 16 runs in recent years have been expected because of seeding. While this was also an expected win, the margin and way it was done to poor West Virginia was eye opening.
Honorable Mention – Rick Pitino, Louisville
Nice job by Pitino getting his team ready to play. After losing in the first round last season, Louisville could have easily come out nervous and tight and lost again. After winning the Big East Tournament last week, Louisville could have easily come out lackadaisical and lost. The Cardinals did neither and played its most disciplined offensive game of the season for a workmanlike win over Davidson.

Bonehead of the Day – Roscoe Smith, Connecticut
Some context here:

Today:

I don't know why I'm surprised (also note Calhoun's reaction in both clips, exactly the same). UConn has alternately played like pinheads or selfish jerks all season and often both. This fits the pinhead category...
Honorable Mention – Jeremy Lamb, Connecticut
… and this one fits the selfish jerk category, especially considering this was in the final minute of a blowout loss.

Feb 2, 2012

College Basketball's Smoking Crater

It's February. Time to reassess the college basketball world as teams get an idea of what is needed to make the NCAA Tournament. Today we start conference by conference with the Pac-12.

What has transpired so far? Nothing good. The league is the joke of the national college basketball scene with writers and analysts everywhere piling on. The mid-major leagues that share the Western half of the US are eons better, at least at the top and the Mountain West is better at the bottom too.

Biggest surprise – Colorado has remained in the race, trailing leaders Cal and Washington by just one game. How much of this is the Buffaloes actually being good and how much is the rest of the league being horrible enough that a bad Buffalo team could stay in the race is up for debate though.

Biggest disappointment – Can I say everyone? No? OK, fine, Arizona. The Wildcats are barely in the RPI top 100 after being ranked in the preseason top 25. Just an awful year in Tucson from the young Wildcats where nearly everything that could go wrong without debilitating injuries or transfers has happened.

NCAA Tournament Locks – None. This league has only one lock. That would be the conference tournament champions. Everyone will be takings its chances. Yes, it is that bad.

Should be in the tournament – The regular season champion. Whoever emerges from the morass in the second half of the conference season should get into the NCAA Tournament, especially if that team is Cal.

Squarely on the bubble – Cal, Oregon, Washington, Stanford
These four (along with Colorado) are in ok position given the computer numbers as long as they put together huge runs in the second half of the conference season. Realistically, these teams (other than Stanford) are fighting for the league title and the likely bid that will come with it. As for Colorado, the Buffaloes lack quality wins (the best non-conference win was against Georgia and that is depreciating rapidly given the Bulldogs lost to Auburn last night) and have the worse RPI of any contender. A Colorado league title would likely become an indictment of the entire league and doom it to one-bid no matter what.

Autobid or bust – Colorado, Arizona, Oregon St., UCLA, Washington St., USC, Arizona St. and Utah
For a major conference with 12 teams, that is a huge list at this point in the season.

Final thought – This might take years to get out of. The Pac-12 is so bad this season that the perception will hurt for years to come (like what happened after the 1999 football disaster that set the league back for years in the National Title race until the rise of USC even though there were worthy teams in the league). Next year it appears that nobody other than maybe Arizona will have any expectations at all, putting the league squarely on par with mid-majors that have to prove themselves every time out against other major conference teams. Given that, the Pac-12 won't return to its former glory (it was only four years ago that six out of 10 in the Pac-10 made the tournament and a credible case for a seventh was available) until the stink of this season wears off, however long that takes.

Jan 16, 2012

Four Point Play College Basketball MLK Weekend Review

12 Most Important Results from the weekend (with Monday being a Holiday, there were extra games so I chose to make it part of the weekend too)

Northern Iowa 61, Missouri St. 60 – Huge win for Northern Iowa as it tries to recapture its early season form. For Missouri St., this loss was likely at at-large deathknell. 8 losses is too many in the Missouri Valley with so far to go in the season.

San Diego St. 69, UNLV 67 – Great game though the better team didn't win. UNLV shot poorly, especially in the first half and nearly salvaged a tough road win anyway. For San Diego St., this was a needed win after a month playing patsies and creampuffs. Now a trip to The Pit awaits.

Northwestern 81, Michigan St. 74 – Northwestern got the one back that it gave away with the home loss to Illinois. Now it needs some road wins. Michigan St. won't be hurt much and should learn from the experience. Its defense overplayed the perimeter all game long and paid for it on back door cuts all game long. Consider this a learning experience in case the Spartans run into a Princeton style offense down the road (like say Georgetown...)

Connecticut 67, Notre Dame 53 – Big road win for a UConn team that has struggled on the road. Snapping Notre Dame's 29 game home winning streak is a nice accomplishment.

Mississippi St. 56, Alabama 52 – Another slog in the SEC. Alabama normally wins these though the loss really doesn't hurt in the long run.

Oklahoma 82, Kansas St. 73 – Oklahoma might have life yet in the second best conference in the country. Kansas St. is still in good position, but it quickly falling out of the conference title chase with a 1-3 start (how brutal is this opening to conference play: at Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, at Oklahoma).

Dayton 79, La Salle 75 – Dayton is still up and down, but it appears to be one of the two best teams in the Atlantic 10 (along with reviving Xavier). La Salle has a chance to join that group and still is an upper echelon team, just not a title contender.

Colorado St. 95, TCU 89 (2OT) – Survive and move on. Colorado St. still has a shockingly high RPI of 22. If it can hold home court in Mountain West play against UNLV, San Diego St. and New Mexico, a surprise run at an at-large bid could be in the cards.

Ohio St. 80, Indiana 63 – Expected blowout. Indiana on the road is not nearly as good as Indiana at home and Indiana seems to be coming off cloud 9 of late (struggled against Penn St., lost to Minnesota and then blown out at Ohio St.).

Wichita St. 75, Indiana St. 65 – With how well Wichita St. is playing, the Missouri Valley looks like it has two solid at-large teams now (Wichita St. and Creighton).

Kansas 92, Baylor 74 – Everyone knew this was coming. No way is anyone ever making through the Big 12 undefeated other than maybe Kansas itself. The environments are way too difficult to run the table, as Baylor learned tonight.

Marquette 74, Louisville 63 – Louisville looks like a team in the throes of collapse. It shoud have never given up 74 points to Marquette considering it normally plays stout defense and everyone else in the country has figured out that Marquette's point guards can't shoot and when Marquette's point guards can't penetrate because the defense lays off them and makes them shoot, Marquette can't score. The Cardinals just don't have it right now and look like this years candidate for Big East team to go from top 10 to miss the NCAA Tournament entirely.

5 Worst Losses from the weekend

South Florida 56, Seton Hall 55 – Conference road games are tough, especially when the travel is as long as this game was.

Florida St. 90, North Carolina 57 – Normally this would go in the above category, but losing by 33 to a team that sometimes feels like it won't score 33 in a game is just awful. Given this result, I hesitate to call North Carolina a National Title contender. There is no way it can win six straight NCAA Tournament games if a game like this gets thrown in.

Boston College 61, Virginia Tech 59 – And here lie the NCAA hopes of Virginia Tech and Seth Greenburg. At least we won't have to hear him complain on the ESPN Selection Special this season.

Richmond 76, Temple 65 – Since beating Duke, Temple has gone in the tank. It seems to be like Dayton right now: up and down and all over the place.

Bradley 78, Northern Iowa 67 – Remember that big Northern Iowa win from the first entry above? This invalidates I and probably another big win too. Just a terrible loss.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Michigan vs Michigan St. - There are only four ranked teams playing tomorrow and the other two won't be heard from on this blog tomorrow unless they lose in some bizarre fashion. Thus, the other two get top billing since they are playing each other. Michigan has a chance to really jumble the conference standings in a league that looks as balanced as any in the country while Michigan St. can put some distance between itself and a couple of the contenders.

Florida St. vs Maryland – Bubble battle. Florida St. has traditionally used its big January home win over Duke or North Carolina (it seriously beat one at home every year) as a springboard to a nice run. Doing that again will be a tough assignment as Maryland has quietly become one of the better teams in the ACC.

Purdue vs Iowa – Which Iowa will show up? If good Iowa shows up, it could win, even on the road. If bad Iowa shows up, maybe Fran McCaffery will destroy another chair like he did against Ohio St. last week.

Final Thought on the long weekend in College Basketball

Baylor lost tonight (as expected). That leaves two undefeated teams. These two seem to have a better chance than nearly all the others in recent years to actually run the table in the regular season and its for far different reasons. The reasons for Murray St. are well chronicled. The Racers play in the OVC, home of exactly nobody, especially with Morehead St. down after losing Kenneth Faried from last season's surprise NCAA Tournament game winner. For Syracuse, the reasons are much more nuanced. For one, nobody in college basketball can match the depth of the Orange. For another, the Big East schedule makers did Syracuse a big favor (unknowingly). Looking at the conference schedule, Syracuse has managed to avoid road games with Seton Hall, West Virginia, Marquette and Georgetown. Combine that with a down year in the league and you get a schedule tailormade for success. Do I think Syracuse will go undefeated? No. They will lose one of the three game stretch of Georgetown, Connecticut, at Louisville in February or the road game at UConn after that. Still, its amazing that the possibility is even being considered.

Jan 13, 2012

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 12

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

St. Mary's 83, Gonzaga 62 – The king is dead! In every sense of the word, this was a blowout. At least on this night, Gonzaga had no chance, getting stomped despite only two points from St. Mary's leading scorer, Rob Jones. As we move forward this season, the Gaels have now become the favorite in the WCC after blowing both BYU and Gonzaga away already.

Duke 61, Virginia 58 – Virginia can certainly compete at the top of the ACC. Duke is still Duke. Nothing has really changed as both are NCAA Tournament teams and both should cruise through the rest of the ACC other than North Carolina fairly easily on the way to a semifinal rematch at the ACC Tournament.

Minnesota 77, Indiana 74 – Minnesota is back from the dead, ending Indiana's Assembly Hall win streak. Who would've thunk it. For Indiana, it was apparent that it was playing well above its head to reach the top 10. Are the Hoosiers a legit top 20 outfit? Yes. Top 10? Not quite yet.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Boston College 59, Clemson 57 – And thus the ACC below Virginia continues is further descent to Pac-12 level depths.

10 Biggest Games of the Weekend

San Diego St. vs UNLV (Saturday) – The Mountain West begins with the biggest game of the season in that league. UNLV has looked really good all season long while San Diego St. has been a surprise after losing a good chunk of the production from last year's team. Along with the games against New Mexico, this series will decide the league, much like the Gonzaga-St. Mary's-BYU games in the WCC.

Ohio St. vs Indiana (Sunday) – Poor Indiana. It lost at home to Minnesota. Now it gets to go on the road and play Ohio St. in a revenge game with the Buckeyes coming off a loss. This won't be pretty. Expect a come back to Earth beatdown.

Florida St. vs North Carolina (Saturday) – This might be the last, best chance for a fourth ACC team to step forward as a contender for an NCAA bid. The Seminoles have historically beaten either Duke or North Carolina at home around this time as a launching pad to a tournament bid. Given the weakness of the rest of the ACC, a win here could give Florida St. the confidence needed to pile up a high win total.

Northern Iowa vs Missouri St. (Friday) – One of three huge games in the Missouri Valley this weekend where the top six teams all play each other. Missouri St. doesn't have much of an at-large resume, but it is the defending conference champion. Northern Iowa is in better shape overall, but is hurting at 2-3 in the league. It needs a win here, because a loss would make seven or even eight league losses likely and that kind of record, even with good non-conference work, would need the auto-bid.

Stanford vs Colorado (Saturday) – A real live Pac-12 game that matters. Though it would have mattered more had Colorado not lost to Cal tonight. Given that, the Buffs need to win, or they will have already drifted back to the Pac while the Bay Area teams step forward as the class of this weak league.

Illinois St. vs Creighton (Friday) – Another major Missouri Valley game. Illinois St. is certainly 6th in the top six pecking order in the Missouri Valley, but playing at home, the Redbirds could pick Creighton off and use it to launch forward in conference play, though the at-large hopes look slim no matter.

Indiana St. vs Wichita St. (Sunday) – The third MVC game of import and Wichita St. needs to win it desperately while Indiana St. is trying to remain in contact with the league leaders in league play.

Missouri vs Texas (Saturday) – Missouri got a little exposed by Kansas St. last week and Texas really needs a big win to revive its flagging NCAA Tournament hopes. Of course Missouri is much tougher to beat in Columbia and Texas, while talented, lacks the frontcourt personnel Kansas St. has to kill Missouri and its lack of inside play or depth.

Northwestern vs Michigan St. (Saturday) – These are games that need to be won to make an NCAA Tournament Northwestern. Of course Northwestern knows this, but it hasn't mattered. Still no NCAA Tournament berths in program history, though surviving this season's Big Ten in one piece very well might get the Wildcats their first.

Mississippi St. vs Alabama (Saturday) – This game is important for placement purposes in the SEC. IT is likely that one of these two will get the fourth bye in the SEC Tournament along with Kentucky, Florida (assuming the Gators right the ship) and Vanderbilt.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Why is Baylor getting lost in the discussion of perfect teams? The answer is the schedule. Syracuse is number one and has a cushy schedule for awhile. Murray St. has the curiosity factor to go with its pathetic Ohio Valley schedule. Baylor has back-to-back games against Kansas and Missouri coming up next week. Good luck with that Bears, though the media attention will remain the same because Baylor remains the forgotten undefeated.

Jan 12, 2012

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 11

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Alabama 69, LSU 53 – Different sport, same result. This one solidifies Alabama's standing in the top five of the SEC, a likely five bid league. It also leaves LSU in a world of hurt at the top team outside that group of five.

Temple 62, Saint Louis 57 – Huge win for Temple coming off the loss to Dayton. The Owls needed this one to show beating Duke wasn't a fluke. For Saint Louis, more up and down play (with more down that up recently) leaves it in need wins before the trip to Xavier in two weeks.

Memphis 60, Southern Miss 58 – Did you Southern Miss has a top 20 RPI? Therefore, this is a huge win for the largely lacking in quality wins Memphis, especially as the computer numbers weaken in Conference USA. As for Southern Miss, it would be in the tournament if the season ended today, but taking losses to anyone in Conference USA is a dicey proposition.

Worst Loss from Tonight

St. Bonaventure 81, Dayton 73 – As sure as the sun rises, Dayton will be all over the place. At this point would it surprise anyone if Dayton beat a team like Syracuse of Kentucky only to lose to a terrible Pac-12 team in a theoretical situation?

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

St. Mary's vs Gonzaga – Time for game one of the best series in the country outside of the power conferences. As usual, these teams are on top of the WCC, though winning this doesn't make a league title as automatic as it used to with BYU now in the league. That said, the winner here is likely a tournament lock barring a pretty bad collapse in February.

Duke vs Virginia – Time to see where Virginia fits in the ACC picture. It is obviously the 3rd best team, but is it closer to North Carolina and Duke or Maryland and NC State? This game will answer that question.

Purdue vs Wisconsin – Purdue is a bubble team right now with a couple of bad losses (Butler and Penn St.). It has been better at home and the Boilermakers can bury reeling Wisconsin in the Big Ten with a win tomorrow. Almost a must win for the tournament hopes of the Badgers.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

What's happening at Pitt. The normally solid Panthers have collapsed this season. Tonight, the collapse reached its likely lowpoint: getting blitzed at home by Rutgers while scoring only 39 points. For the Panthers, there is likely no fix on the horizon. Nobody knows when Tray Woodall will be back and even he won't help this team a ton given the putrid shooting we saw tonight. When Jay Bilas refuses to tell his twitter followers what channel the game is on for their own good, you know its gotten, especially on offense.

Jan 9, 2012

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 9

Special Editor's Note: This is Post #500 on the blog. Thanks to everyone who reads.

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Cincinnati 68, Georgetown 64 – Just a huge win for Cincinnati after taking a bad loss against St. John's over the weekend. Now the Bearcats need to build on it. Meanwhile, the Hoyas, coming off it annual loss at West Virginia got beat the game after losing in Morgantown again. This happens every year.

Connecticut 64, West Virginia 57 – Speaking of the Mountaineers, they found out that UConn is a much better team at home than they showed on the road in losses to Seton Hall and Rutgers last week.

St. Mary's 87, San Francisco 72 – Another game, another win for St. Mary's as the Gaels attempt to wrap a bid up well before Championship Week this season.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Oklahoma St. 72, Oklahoma 65 – Ouch. Bedlam just confirmed that Lon Kruger has a long way to go at Oklahoma still and also confirmed that neither of these teams will be in the NCAA Tournament field.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Creighton vs Northern Iowa – This is a huge game for Northern Iowa. The Missouri Valley is likely to get two bids, but three is a stretch and four is really pushing it. Considering Northern Iowa is either 3rd of 4th in line right now, winning against the unquestioned top dog would be huge.

Illinois vs Ohio St. - Illinois continues to cruise along beating teams is should by closer than expected margins and losing to the better teams on the schedule. Ohio St. is one of the better teams, but Illinois has generally not played those better teams at home so far.

Kansas St. vs Baylor – Can Kansas St. knock off another undefeated team at home after crushing Missouri on Saturday? Possibly, but it will be more difficult. Baylor has better and bigger inside players than Missouri making them a more difficult matchup for Kansas St.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

As usual, the world forgot about college basketball while finishing up football season. I wish I hadn't considering how bad the LSU-Alabama game was. Evidently, we all missed a good game between Cincinnati and Georgetown during the football game.

Jan 8, 2012

Four Point Play Weekend College Basketball Review - Jan. 8

10 Most Important Results from the Weekend

Kansas St. 75, Missouri 59 – All of Missouri's warts were on display in this road game. And all of them have to do with either a lack of height or a lack of depth. The Tigers have just seven scholarship players and very little inside. When things start going bad on the road against a team with good post players (and Kansas St. has good post players), it can spiral out of control quickly if the Missouri three point shooters are even a little off their games.

Notre Dame 67, Louisville 65 (2OT) – We have more proof Louisville was way overrated at number four a couple of weeks ago. We also have proof Notre Dame remains a tough out now that it has adapted to playing without injured Tim Abromitis.

West Virginia 74, Georgetown 62 – As sure as the sun rises, Georgetown gets stomped in Morgantown. Consider the Hoyas among the happiest parties once West Virginia actually gets to the Big 12. Georgetown is likely sick of being West Virginia's stepping stool to its annual January-February run from the bubble to five or six seed in the tournament.

Michigan 59, Wisconsin 41 – And the Wisconsin collapse continues, this time with a listless and generally bad effort at Michigan. For Michigan, it is a quality win (for now) that helps in the bounce back from losing at Indiana.

Syracuse 73, Marquette 66 – Another game, another 23-1 Syracuse run and another win for Syracuse. If the Orange can bottle the effort and energy of its every game big run for the entire game, it will win the National Championship. Yes, Syracuse looks that good for stretches of most every game.

Arkansas 98, Mississippi St. 88 – The jury is now out on both teams. Mississippi St. has a good resume, but it appears as thought the Bulldogs will struggle in road games again. Arkansas hasn't been tested away from home, but winning this game at least makes it relevant in the SEC.

Xavier 67, Fordham 59 – Only important because Xavier remembered the feeling of winning. That said, Tu Holloway is still playing badly (as evidenced by his goose egg in the scoring column in this game) and he will need to be better to get Xavier to the NCAA Tournament.

LSU 81, Ole Miss 55 – With this result, we can extinguish what remaining at-large hopes Ole Miss had. We can also say that LSU at least has a chance if it can continue to play this well.

Seton Hall 66, Providence 57 – Providence had a golden opportunity to pick up a very high value win against a team coming off a big win at home. Instead, the Friars were beaten fairly soundly by the biggest surprise in all of college basketball this season.

3 Worst Losses from the Weekend

Tennessee 67, Florida 56 – A second appearance here in recent weeks doesn't bode well for Florida, a team that lacks inside players and is especially prone to streaky shooting.

Rutgers 67, Connecticut 60 – A second appearance here as a winner in recent weeks bodes well for the future at Rutgers. For UConn, this second road loss in a week shows the road will be incredibly difficult again, just as it was last season (remember that UConn finished 9th in the regular season Big East standings mostly because it struggled mightily in road games) before catching fire on neutral courts.

Wake Forest 58, Virginia Tech 55 and Clemson 79, Florida St. 59 – And thus the ACC below the top three begins its best Pac-12 impressions.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

LSU vs Alabama in BCS Football National Championship Game – Yes, it's football, but it's also big for basketball. In recent years, top football schools have been using the football programs to help boost the recruiting of the basketball programs. Most notable among them are Florida and Ohio St. who followed up their national title game showdown in football with one in basketball as well. Obviously, both of these schools are a long way away in basketball, but both seem to be back on the right track this season after a few years in the wilderness. Winning here in football won't guarantee basketball success, but it certainly won't hurt at all.

Georgetown vs Cincinnati – Cincinnati also took a bad loss over the weekend to St. John's. Now, it needs to bounce back and quickly or risk falling off the bubble. Despite its recent hot streak since the Xavier brawl, Cincinnati is still the same team that lost to Presbyterian and was blown off the floor by Xavier before the brawl.

Connecticut vs West Virginia – For West Virginia, it got its annual home win over Georgetown last game. Can the Mountaineers continue the run as it has the last few seasons on the road? For Connecticut, getting home is a chance to get back on track after a lost week on the road. Both teams need this game in the muddled Big East race.

Final Thought on the weekend in College Basketball

Both now and when the NCAA Tournament roll around, there are always arguments about which system is better for crowning a champion: the BCS or the NCAA Basketball Tournament. Most come down on the side of the NCAA Tournament. That said, why can't both sports just be different. That is ok. The NCAA Tournament is great for college basketball, even if it nearly invalidates the whole regular season. The BCS is great for college football, even if it doesn't give us the neat little controversy free ending we say we want (we don't really because if that were the case, why are we still discussing BCS controversies years later while never mentioning the great NCAA Tournament finals played over the last few years). Both systems have their flaws that many would like to see improved (more restrictive field in basketball, blow the whole system up in football), but why not leave it as it is? Since the advent of the NBA age restriction, college basketball has begun to thrive once again while college football has continued its growth to become a monolith dwarfed only by the NFL in American sports. Once again, why not leave everything alone and be happy with that?

Jan 6, 2012

Four Point Play Daily CBB Review and Weekend Preview - Jan 5

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Indiana 73, Michigan 71 – At this point, killing Indiana under a barrage of 3's would be recommended in Bloomington. Don't do that and Indiana will figure out a way to win the game. The Hoosiers still need to prove these results can be had on the road, but there is no doubt the program is back to where it needs to be.

DePaul 84, Pittsburgh 81 – I don't think DePaul is an at-large contender, but neither is Pittsburgh at this point. The Panthers have suffered some bad losses and have now lost four in a row with little value in the non-conference to fall back on (Tennessee and Oklahoma St. are far cries from their recent solid selves). Now, Pitt must win against Rutgers or risk having this turn into an 8-game losing streak with at Marquette, at Syracuse and Louisville coming up.

Oregon 78, Stanford 67 – Ugh. Pac-12 hoops. At this point, it would be merciful to just say one-bid league and be done with it after the top four teams in the league all lost tonight (well done Cal, Arizona and Washington)

Worst Loss from Tonight

Penn St. 65, Purdue 45 – Strike Purdue from the at-large list. The profile just won't be there if games like this show up on the resume, especially with the loss to Xavier rapidly deteriorating and an ugly loss to a bad Butler team on the resume.

10 Biggest Games of the Weekend

Syracuse vs Marquette – When things aren't going well, this is not a trip that one wants to see on the schedule. For Marquette, with its biggest wins (Ole Miss, Washington and Wisconsin) losing value and having lost three out of five, things aren't going well.

Kansas St. vs Missouri – Another day, another test for undefeated and depthless Missouri. Eventually, the lack of depth in the front court is going to catch up with the Tigers. This game is a good possibility as Kansas St. has a pretty good front court.

Iowa vs Ohio St. - Which Iowa is the real Iowa. Is it the one that beat Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road over the last week, or is it the one that lost badly to Creighton, Campbell?!?, Clemson, Northern Iowa and Iowa St.? The Hawkeyes don't necessarily have to beat Ohio St. to prove its the former, but getting blown out wouldn't be good, especially at home.

West Virginia vs Georgetown – Georgetown continues its run through the top of the Big East. A win here on the road would confirm the Hoyas as the second choice behind Syracuse. For West Virginia, big home games like this are the ones needed for at-large bids.

Arkansas vs Mississippi St. - Is Arkansas for real? The Razorbacks have piled up a gaudy record against some awful opponents, losing bizarrely at home to Houston and getting torched on the road against UConn and Oklahoma. If the Razorbacks are for real, it beats a talented but vulnerable Mississippi St. team at home.

Temple vs Dayton – Temple and Dayton are the top two teams in the A-10 pecking order after their big wins on Wednesday and collapse of Xavier. The winner here is a the conference front runner and almost certain to get an NCAA bid barring a major February collapse.

Providence vs Seton Hall – A huge chance for Providence to get a big win after Seton Hall disemboweled UConn earlier this week. For the Pirates, its a chance to solidify its status as the most underrated team in the country (RPI 4, no bad losses, truckload of decent wins and a blowout win over UConn).

Michigan vs Wisconsin – Wisconsin needs to stop the bleeding. Yes, there is a big win over UNLV and a win over BYU on the resume. Not much else right now and already carrying two home losses, the Badgers can ill afford to fall to 1-3 in Big Ten play.

Minnesota vs Purdue – Huge game between teams trying to stay on the bubble. At this point, the loser can probably kiss all hopes goodbye.

NC State vs Maryland – Ditto. The difference being the much weaker ACC as opposed to the strong Big Ten Minnesota and Purdue play in.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Where are the bids going to come from? As of right now, I have no idea and that means some undeserving teams in the field come March. Part of the problem: the Pac-12 is historically awful and the ACC is way down. Normally, those leagues can realistically shoot for 10 bids between them. This year, it looks like there will six at the most. Worse yet, the other power conferences (besides the Big Ten) look unable to pick up the slack. Then, when delving further, there are not a lot of strong mid-majors. The Mountain West, WCC, Atlantic 10, Missouri Valley and Conference USA all look poised for the usual. The rest are all one bid this season. Where are the bids coming from?

Jan 4, 2012

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Jan. 4

After a few nights away because of travel, sickness and football, its time for the return of the 4-Point Play.

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Temple 78, Duke 73 – Just a huge win for Temple in its quest for an at-large bid should it be needed, placing the Owls on top of the Atlantic 10 pecking order. As for Duke, this just confirms what we already suspected. The team will win a lot of games but is inherently flawed. The result will be some odd road losses and a seed of 2 or 3 instead of 1.

Dayton 79, Saint Louis 72 (OT) – Another gigantic win for the inconsistent Flyers puts them second in the A-10 pecking order behind Temple. Now they need to not collapse in February (again) and they need middling BCS conference victims Wake Forest, Minnesota and Ole Miss to not collapse in conference play so those wins retain value alongside the win over Alabama. For Saint Louis, things still look ok, but not great as the collection of BCS conference victims looks a whole lot more impressive than it actually is this season (Washington, Boston College, Villanova, and Oklahoma).

Georgetown 73, Marquette 70 – Huge comeback for Georgetown that seems to validate the Hoyas even more. For Marquette, there might be some reason to worry now as the Wisconsin ship is taking on water right now, the losses pile up (that's three in five games) and a trip to the Carrier Dome awaits on Saturday. Uh oh.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Iowa 64, Minnesota 62 – This isn't a terrible loss, but Minnesota can't afford losses to anyone that isn't likely to compete for a tournament berth and Iowa (even with the win at Wisconsin to go with this one) isn't a contender. It appears that the loss of Trevor Mbakwe has finally caught up to this team.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Indiana vs Michigan – By far the biggest game of the night. Can Michigan succeed where Kentucky and Ohio St. failed: in Bloomington. I suspect someone will manage a win there before the end of the season, the question is who.

Oregon vs Stanford – Two of the front runners in the Pathetic 12 go at it with Stanford trying to get to 3-0 and establish itself a credible at-large case (Cardinal are only Pac-12 school with any semblance of a decent collection of wins with Oklahoma St. and NC State in its victim list) while Oregon tries to recover from getting trounced at Washington and get back in the chase.

Oregon St. vs Cal – Time to scrape the bottom of the barrel here. Thanks Pac-12 for stinking and making Thursday nights so bad. I have nothing else interesting to say about this game.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Xavier lost again tonight, this time to La Salle to drop to 9-5 on the season and 1-5 since the brawl with Cincinnati. What has happened to Xavier can now be explained, I think. The Xavier roster was one built upon being tough and scrappy. Being fighters. Now that there has been a real fight, that image and identity has been stripped. Without it, Xavier just doesn't know how to play. In effect, it looks lost on the court. Until the Muskateers find a new identity (or is allowed to regain its old one), the team is destined to losing games because of a lack of toughness and lack of fight like what happened tonight.

Dec 30, 2011

Four Point Play College Basketball Review, Dec. 29

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Vanderbilt 74, Marquette 57 – The Vanderbilt team everyone expected this year finally showed up and it was a scary thing indeed as a very good Marquette team got squished at home. For Vanderbilt, this will likely be the game that turns this disappointing season around and it wouldn't surprise me if the Commodores went on a big winning streak. For Marquette, maybe it was a bit overrated after beating Wisconsin on the road, but there will be no major issues going forward.

Cincinnati 56, Oklahoma 55 – Oklahoma is surprisingly improved under first year coach Lon Kruger making this a much needed quality win for Cincinnati when it was needed and unexpected in the preseason.

St. Mary's 98, BYU 82 – BYU looked totally unprepared for the new road atmosphere it was about to face. Considering how good St. Mary's is, that was going to be a big problem. As for St. Mary's it now has the inside track to bid number two from the WCC. The question for BYU is if there is a bid number three.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Rutgers 85, Florida 83 (2OT) – Right now, a loss to a five-loss Big East team on the road doesn't look horrible. When that Big East team turns into a 16 loss version like everyone expects, it will be an ugly loss on the resume for Florida.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Dayton vs Ole Miss – This is a huge bubble game. Dayton could really use another name to win to go with its huge collection of both quality wins and bad losses. Ole Miss plays in the weaker end of the SEC schedule (no more divisional play, but divisional scheduling still remains), so a head-to-head win over a fellow bubble team might be necessary.

Seton Hall vs West Virginia – Seton Hall had its doors blown off by Syracuse to start Big East play earlier this week. Still, it is in good shape for a bid as long as that beating doesn't linger and Big East play doesn't eat it alive. Of course, West Virginia is a quality opponent that could accelerate the process of Seton Hall falling down the spiral.

Old Dominion vs Missouri – ODU has not gotten off to a great start (6-6), but the real attraction is undefeated Missouri in a true road game for the first time this season. How will Missouri respond in a close game and will they play well in the first completely hostile environment of the season (there have been three neutral site games)?

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

The carcass known as the Pac-12 finally got conference play under way and not a moment too soon. At least now, the league can beat up on each other and maybe even get a dominant team or two to separate from the pack and maybe get two teams into the NCAA Tournament.

Dec 27, 2011

Four Point Play Dec. 27

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Illinois 81, Minnesota 72 (2OT) – Illinois desperately needed this after getting drilled by UNLV and falling short in a comeback attempt against Missouri. It almost blew it to a Minnesota teams that has adapted well after the injury to Trevor Mbakwe behind a greatly improved Ralph Sampson III. Both teams should be fine in the long run.

Notre Dame 72, Pittsburgh 59 – Uh oh for Pittsburgh. The Panthers haven't had a great non-conference run and losing to Notre Dame to start Big East play won't help. As for Notre Dame, this win might start the climb out of the hole the Irish dug for itself in non-conference play.

Wisconsin 64, Nebraska 40 – Wisconsin is really good. Previously 8-3 Nebraska is 8-4 and obviously not ready for primetime.

Worst Loss from Tonight

St. John's 91, Providence 67 – St. John's is not good this season. The win moved the Red Storm to 7-5. Providence was thought to be good, but nobody knew because its strong record was countered with a weak schedule. I guess we now know which way the Friars are going.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Syracuse vs Seton Hall – Seton Hall is one of the surprises of the season so far. Now, on the road, we get to see how legit the Pirates are.

Baylor vs Mississippi St. - Baylor continues its pre-Big 12 insanity tour with a game against top 15 SEC power Mississippi St. The Bears should win (Miss St. is overrated in the top 15) and carry a truckload of momentum into Big 12 play.

Michigan St. vs Indiana – Michigan St. has rebounded well from getting beat by North Carolina and Duke to start the season. Now, the Spartans get to test Indiana at home, the first really good team to get that chance (sorry NC State). I think the Spartans will pass with flying colors, leaving Indiana to doubt how it got to where it is.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

The RPI is a mess right now. I know we aren't supposed to evaluate these things until later, but there is no way Northern Iowa is a top 5 team or Long Beach is a top 15 team (though those teams are very good and a threat to win a game in the NCAA Tournament if given that opportunity). With that known, we need an alternative to the RPI. What that is, I don't know, but I do know the RPI is a flawed system, at best.

Dec 23, 2011

Four Point Play College Basketball Review - Dec. 23

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

UNLV 85, Cal 68 – Another nice notch for UNLV and yet another stinging failure for the Pac-12. You know its bad when the national media is calling you the WAC-12 and some might think its a complement.

Baylor 83, West Virginia 81 (OT) – Baylor is learning how to win the close game that it didn't win early last season. It also is being tested in ways that will only help come March. West Virginia showed very well and should comfortably make the tournament as long as conference road game don't overwhelm the youngsters.

Long Beach St. 64, Auburn 43 – Despite five losses, Long Beach St.'s schedule has been tough enough that an incredible run through the Big West might get them back in the at large conversation. This win over Auburn will be middling in the end, but its still a nice get along with the wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier with a shot at Kansas St. coming Sunday.

Worst Loss from Tonight

UCLA 71, Richmond 63 – I know I'm burying Richmond again (3rd time in the last three weeks), but nobody had a truly bad loss and losing to bad Pac-12 teams (even improved ones) is never a good way to avoid this category.

EDIT: Evidently my brain malfunctioned when it skipped the Wagner win over Pittsburgh on the score website tonight. Needless to say, losing to NEC teams is never a good idea when looking for high seeds and respect as a Big East team.

Upcoming Schedule

Until Tuesday, only game in the Diamond Head Classic are on the schedule for anyone. Here are preview capsules for all remaining games.

Kansas St. vs Long Beach St. - The big question is if Long Beach St. can stand up to the length of Kansas St. inside. If it can, it can win this game because the 49ers have the advantage, though slightly, in the backcourt.

Auburn vs UTEP – I'm sure this is a game Auburn coach Tony Barbee wanted to avoid since he recruited much of the UTEP roster when he was the Miners head coach. As for the game, Auburn is one of the worst 8-2 teams anyone has ever laid eyes on. UTEP should win.

Clemson vs Hawaii – Clemson has looked bad since getting to Hawaii (and really for much of the season). Hawaii never was thought to be good and still isn't even after beating reeling Xavier. This game has the potential to look a lot like the Auburn-Hawaii game: close but ugly as heck to watch.

Xavier vs Southern Illinois – Ugh. Southern Illinois has totally collapsed from its level of a few years ago when it was a top five NCAA Tournament seed. At this point though, the Salukis might be in better shape than Xavier, where the program might be collapsing before our eyes after the Cincinnati brawl.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

As weird as the schedule is, the Diamond Head Classic fills a nice niche on the schedule. With nothing else going around Christmas, this has turned into a nice event, even if the arena is half empty and the games are on Christmas. Before anyone complains about the Christmas games, remember that the players are still on campus no matter what. I'm sure they would rather play and spend Christmas in Hawaii then spend it in the athletic dorms with practice on Christmas morning.

Dec 22, 2011

Four Point Play Midweek Review Dec. 22

Since we missed the last two nights (life sometimes intervenes in blogging), this will take on a more weekend review like tone.

Most Important Results Since Tuesday

Missouri 78, Illinois 74 – The Braggin' Rights game is one of the highlights of the season and this was no exception. Missouri did everything it could to blow this for quite some time, until it realized success was a possibility. Then the game turned back around and Missouri finished it off.

Ohio 76, Northern Iowa 59 – Huge win for Ohio that needed a quality win to validate its 9-1 start, now 10-1 after this win. For Northern Iowa, as long as the sting doesn't linger, this shouldn't hurt too much as Ohio has a chance to rack up a pretty gaudy record in the MAC.

Louisville 69, Charleston 62 – Another tough win for Louisville. The Cardinals keep winning these games, but D-Day is coming soon. Kentucky is on the horizon. Charleston is good, but its no at-large contender in a year that looks like it is going to have a lot of strong mid-major at-large contenders.

Gonzaga 71, Butler 55 – Another win for Gonzaga that could turn out to be a good win in the end even if Butler isn't in the tournament. As for Butler, this team looks a lot like the Xavier team from about 4-5 years ago that was young and not great. That team won its conference tournament and went to the NCAA's as a 14 seed, then started its run of A-10 championships and easy safe at-large passage the next season.

Baylor 72, St. Mary's 59 – Another good win for Baylor and another missed opportunity for St. Mary's.

UCLA 89, UC Irvine 60 – Notable only that UCLA is finally over .500 this season after its wretched start.

Long Beach St. 68, Xavier 58 – Finally another big win for the extremely overscheduled 49ers. Xavier very well might have tanked its entire season with that fight against Cincinnati. Even with Tu Holloway back, it looked bad tonight.

North Carolina 82, Texas 63 – For once, Texas lacks the talent to compete with North Carolina. Normally, it lacks the cohesion and chemistry needed.

Seton Hall 69, Dayton 64 – Another nice win for Seton Hall, a team that looks like this year's surprise Big East tournament team. For Dayton, the bubble is looking quite likely at this point.

Creighton 87, Northwestern 79 – If Northwestern is to ever make the NCAA Tournament, it needs to figure out how to win games like this one. Creighton, even with the loss to St. Joe's last week, is moving closer to NCAA lock.

Alabama 69, Oklahoma St. 52 – Nice turn around win for Alabama after struggling recently. For Oklahoma St., the NIT beckons, if its lucky.

Middle Tennessee St. 68, Ole Miss 56 – Big win for the at-large hopes of Sun Belt based Middle Tennessee, adding it to the wins over Belmont and UCLA. For Ole Miss, getting waxed like this really hurts.

Florida 82, Florida St. 64 – For Florida St. it's really simple. If they give up 80 points, they are screwed. The Florida guards can get to 80 quite easily if you don't guard well.

Kansas 63, USC 47 – The USC offense continues to not bother. Too bad too considering the defense is near elite level (and not just by Pac-12 standards).

Georgetown 70, Memphis 59 – Another decent win for Georgetown and more proof that Memphis should not see the top 25 in the preseason under any circumstance no matter how much talent until Josh Pastner figures out how to coach along with his excellent recruiting.

Worst Losses Since Tuesday

Duquesne 75, George Mason 64 – CAA teams can't lose to middling Atlantic 10 opponents and make the tournament. It makes them look like middling Atlantic 10 opponents that won't make the tournament.

Houston Baptist 72, Santa Clara 71 – Ouch, there goes the neighborhood for Santa Clara, a team that lacks quality wins and now needs a top 2 finish in the WCC (fat chance).

Louisiana-Lafayette 61, Central Florida 60 – And thus the good of the UConn win is erased.

UTEP 61, Clemson 48 – And the ACC continues its pathetic play below North Carolina, Duke and Virginia.

Rice 65, Texas A&M 58 – The Aggies just can't score. It will kill them against better offensive teams in conference play like Kansas, Kansas St. and especially Baylor and Missouri.

Butler 71, Stanford 66 – And here lies the carcass of the final Pac-12 team to not be featured in this section this season.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

UNLV vs Cal – This is the final chance for both Cal and the Pac-12. No pressure here Bears. For UNLV, this game could set it up on a path towards a top 4 seed, possibly even as high as two if everything breaks right.

West Virginia vs Baylor – West Virginia is no tournament lock, but a win here at a neutral sight would do wonders, especially since Baylor looks like one of this season's elite teams and currently is still undefeated.

Long Beach St. vs Auburn-Hawaii winner – Long Beach St. needs to win the Diamond Head Classic and smoke the Big West to get into at-large contention. It's opponent in the semifinals is still unknown as Auburn and Hawaii are playing a close game in the first half as I write.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Programs are fragile, especially below the Power Conferences. Xavier should take that thought to heart as it tries to refocus after getting stomped again, this time by Long Beach St. After that fight against Cincinnati, if Xavier collapses, it could bring about the collapse of the entire program. The reason is simple: perception is everything. The perception would be of thuggish losers below the top level of the sport. That would mean easy pickins for negative recruiters. And the fall of the program. Xavier, for program reasons, needs to steady the ship. And that needs to start tomorrow against the loser of the Auburn-Hawaii game.

Dec 20, 2011

Four Point Play College Basketball Review - Dec. 19

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

LSU 67, Marquette 59 – LSU has quite obviously improved to win a game like this. If it can win out the non-conference schedule (including a Jan. 2 game against Virginia), maybe it is a tournament contender after all. For Marquette, It was due to lay an egg. This loss will have little effect in the long run though tough game against Milwaukee and Vanderbilt remain before Big East play begins.

Cal 70, UC Santa Barbara 50 – It's come to this for the Pac-12. Beating UC Santa Barbara is a huge win for the league. That said, this was important for Cal to win in front of what might be a must win trip to UNLV Friday night.

Denver 57, Wyoming 46 – The best way for a low-major to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large is to play a bunch of middling to decent mid-majors, beat them all and pile up a huge win total. Denver is doing just that with wins over St. Mary's, Southern Miss, Utah St., Portland St., Boise St. and now Wyoming. All that remains now is to not slip up in the remaining non-conference games (there are two and at Colorado St. could be trouble) and roll to a 14-2 or 15-1 type record in Sun Belt play.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Davidson 80, Kansas 74 – This is gonna sting at least in the seeding department. Davidson is decent, but they are nowhere near the Steph Curry teams of a few years ago. The lack of depth on the Kansas roster is evident (just six bench points and only six players able to contribute anything offensively in pretty much every game) making winning yet another Big 12 title look like a long shot at best with Baylor and Missouri playing so well.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Northern Iowa vs Ohio – 10-1 mid-major that looks tournament bound against 9-1 low major that needs quality wins? Sign me up. Should be a good game. The biggest question is whether Ohio can score enough to get Northern Iowa off its patient half court game. Nobody has managed that feat yet this season (St. Mary's didn't really score a bunch, it just held Northern Iowa to 41 points).

Gonzaga vs Butler – The two main mid-major powers square off with neither in as good a shape as normal. Butler is below .500 and needed a late tip in to beat Purdue just to be close right now. Gonzaga was ranked for awhile this season and has some quality wins, but it can ill afford to slip up against a team with Butler's resume.

Arizona vs Oakland – Another day, another chance for the Pac-12 to embarrass itself. Oakland is a decent team in the Summit League, but Pac-12 teams should win games like this, especially at home. As a whole though, the league has failed in these games pretty much all season (Bay Area schools exempted).

Final Thought on the Night in College Basketball

I understand why teams do it, but some teams shouldn't need to play home games at other venues. Tonight, one reason Kansas lost was that it played Davidson in Kansas City instead of at home in Lawrence. I know the game was played in Kansas City for the fans there and because campus is now closed, but at some schools like Kansas it shouldn't be necessary. The building would be sold out no matter what. That goes for you too Illinois (lost to UNLV on Saturday at United Center) though there is at least a recruiting benefit there. That also goes for the Oklahoma schools that couldn't sell out an arena together in Oklahoma City for a doubleheader. When are schools going to learn that the on campus atmosphere is what makes regular season college basketball great?

Dec 19, 2011

Four Point Play Weekend in Review, Dec. 19

Important Wins from the Weekend

UNLV 64, Illinois 48 – The Rebels got revenge after getting stomped by the Illini is last year's NCAA Tournament and also validated that the win over North Carolina was no fluke. For Illinois, I know it has to play at the United Center for recruiting purposes each season, but its inability to win there is just killing them. This is five out of six losses over the last few seasons there.

Louisville 95, Memphis 87 – Memphis was way overrated in the preseason (again, just like every year under Josh Pastner) and this game showed why. The Tigers have as much talent as Louisville, but it just doesn't jell together the way it needs to in some way. Some games its on defense (like this one), other on offense (barely beating a terrible Tennessee team in Maui). As for Louisville, good start, but conference play and the Kentucky game will be a bit of a wake up call.

Baylor 86, BYU 83 – Perry Jones is a beast and it appears he made a good decision to come back to school for another year even though he would have been a top-10 pick in the draft. As for BYU, it has Matt Carlino now and he played well in his first game after becoming eligible after transferring from UCLA (what on Earth is Ben Howland doing considering he has no team this year and he has stocked New Mexico, UNLV and BYU with high level players). If he can score consistenly, BYU will be a threat to Gonzaga in the WCC.

Florida 84, Texas A&M 64 – Get a lead on A&M and the game is over. The Aggies just can't score (despite the 8-2, haven't reached 70 points since November 13). Florida jumped out 18-2 and the game was over.

Kansas St. 71, Alabama 58 – The Crimson Tide can't shoot from the outside. If a team can play a competent zone score on Alabama's tough defense, it should win, especially at home. This is exactly what Kansas St. did (and Georgetown and Dayton before the Wildcats).

Indiana St. 61, Vanderbilt 55 – What happened? Vanderbilt is on the short list for most underachieving team in college basketball after this loss, the first with Festus Ezeli though he's still working his way back into shape. Indiana St. now has the big win it needed for its resume as the Missouri Valley pushes for three or even four bids this seasons.

Gonzaga 71, Arizona 60 – Another game where the winner jumped out to a big lead and was never really challenged. Oddly, Arizona needed this a lot more than Gonzaga because of its weak league (the Pac-12 is that bad this season).

New Mexico 66, Oklahoma St. 56 – The Lobos got another middling BCS league win to go with its growing collection of middling BCS league wins over teams that won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. The current bad BCS body count for the Lobos: Oklahoma St., USC (whose game against Georgia merited no mention here), Boston College (just a miserable team), Washington St. (average Pac-12 team in an awful Pac-12) and Arizona St. (saved from being the worst team in the worst BCS conference only because Utah is now in the league).

Virginia 67, Oregon 54 – Good road win for Virginia. In Oregon's case, see all previous notes about how bad the Pac-12 is.

Worst Losses from the Weekend

Butler 67, Purdue 65 – This one is going to sting. The Butler name is good, but the team is 5-6. Unless Butler has suddenly rediscovered itself (doubtful), this portends trouble for Purdue once Big Ten play begins.

Bucknell 79, Richmond 65 – And thus ends the NCAA hopes of the Richmond Spiders.

Miami (OH) 66, Belmont 61 – And thus ends the NCAA at-large hopes of Belmont, who somehow regressed from last season with nearly the entire roster back.

Oral Roberts 64, Xavier 42 – I know there were suspended players, but getting blown out at hom by Summit League teams is never a good thing.

South Dakota St. 92, Washington 73 – I could make another wisecrack about the Pac-12, but what would that accomplish?

3 Biggest Games Tonight

LSU vs Marquette – LSU is a bad SEC team carrying losses to Coastal Carolina and South Alabama already. But the Tigers are at home and home court makes a big difference in college basketball. It probably won't matter, but there's a chance.

South Florida vs Cleveland St. - South Florida is an awful team (see 52-40 loss to Auburn last week), but Cleveland St. is an NCAA contender that needs wins over BCS conference opponents for perception and needs to avoid bad losses like this would be in reality.

Arizona St. vs Southern Miss – Southern Miss is off to a decent start, but other than Murray St. (2OT loss) and Ole Miss (won on Saturday at home), it has played nobody. Arizona St. is another nobody that is already playing out the string. If Southern Miss really is an NCAA contender, it drills the Sun Devils, even in Tempe.

Final Thought on the weekend in College Basketball

Thank God finals are over. We can finally get on with the season now. I understand the importance of finals, but it still stunts the season and gives us one incredibly boring week every year. Now, we can get back to the fun of basketball like this last weekend was.

Dec 15, 2011

Four Point Play College Basketball Review - Dec. 15

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Auburn 52, South Florida 40 – Huge win for Auburn at home. Does it make the Tigers an at-large contender? No way. Will it even help the resume at the end of the season? Probably not. That said, it was a huge win for Auburn after being taken apart by Seton Hall in its last game.

Cincinnati 78, Wright St. 58 – Brawl recovery began for Cincinnati and part one was passed with flying colors, even on the road. Now the Bearcats need to string some wins together after an underwhelming non-conference performance thus far.

UNLV 65, UTEP 54 – The Rebels finally got back home and won with the needed home cookin'. Now, its off to Chicago for a rematch with Aillinois after getting clubbed in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Charleston 71, Tennessee 65 – Tennessee is not a good team under Cuozo Martin this season. That said, it still has the overall talent that it should be beating teams like College of Charletson. Shameful effort again.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Gonzaga vs Oral Roberts – Oral Roberts is 7-3 and will help Gonzaga in the RPI. Gonzaga has a chance for what will be an under appreciated quality win.

Murray St. vs Lipscomb – The Racers have won 10 straight games to start the year with a win over Memphis. Now we see how good they really are. Tomorrow, they must overcome the post big win syndrome where many teams win a huge a game and then lose to an inferior team.

Belmont vs Troy – For Belmont the season is simple. Win out to the conference tournament final and hope the committee shines upon you.

Dec 14, 2011

Four Point Play Dec. 14

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Wisconsin 60, Milwaukee 54 – Yes, Wisconsin won the game (as it should of). Yes, the Badgers are going to the NCAA Tournament again this season. Even so, it needs Jordan Taylor to be the Jordan Taylor of last season to advance. If Taylor plays like he has this season thus far (shooting percentage down 7% and PPG 6.5 per game), Wisconsin won't go far in the NCAA's

Middle Tennessee 65, Belmont 62 – What little flickering at-large hopes Belmont had just petered out. For Middle Tennessee, splitting with Belmont doesn't look great for their own resume that appears good enough to at least get into the discussion.

UC Santa Barbara 65, San Diego 61 – Gritty win in San Diego by UC Santa Barbara in game 1 of a brutal five game road trip. That said, step one towards the NCAA Tournament started well. Of course the next four steps are all on the road and only one of those is a conference game.

Worst Loss from Tonight

None (again) – Once conference play starts, this should be full every night.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Richmond vs Iona – The last time we saw Richmond, they were being gutted by crosstown rival VCU. Iona has some decent wins, but also took a nasty loss over the weekend to Marshall in game four of its 8 game road trip through the month of December. The winner has a chance to right the ship and get into at-large contention (especially if its Richmond).

Auburn vs South Florida – Nobody has seen Auburn since Seton Hall made mincemeat out of them back in the SEC-Big East Challenge. Now, the Tigers get another Big East team, this one notoriously awful for many years and not a good road team. If Auburn really has improved, win this game in the first half.

Wright St. vs Cincinnati – Only important to see the reaction of Cincinnati players, coaches and Fans after the awful brawl against Xavier last week. Basketball wise, Cincinnati should smoke this team, even without its star players.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

This is a time of year when teams are susceptible to upsets. It happens every year. That said, it looks like the upsets aren't going to come in waves and while that means a dull regular season, it means a stellar NCAA Tournament with teams loaded with gaudy records.

Dec 12, 2011

Four Point Play College Basketball Review - Dec. 12

3 Most Important Results from Tonight

Oregon 79, Portland St. 70 – The Pac-12 really can't afford any more losses to teams like Portland St. At this point, the entire league except for Arizona and the Bay Area schools are pretty much in must win situations until conference play starts.

Rutgers 81, Monmouth 66 – The Big East could afford the hit where the Pac-12 can't, but its still nice to not lose to bad teams.

Oral Roberts 58, Arkansas-Little Rock 55 – Winning games like this on the road is what keeps low-major teams out of the First Four.

Worst Loss from Tonight

Fordham 74, Siena 59 – Remember when Siena was good? It wasn't long ago that the Saints were in the NCAA Tournament three years in a row, winning a game twice. Now, at 3-7 under a new coach, Siena is a reminder just how fickle success, especially at the mid-major level can be.

3 Biggest Games of Tomorrow

Milwaukee vs Wisconsin – 8-2 Milwaukee is off to a great start (despite being clobbered by Northern Iowa on Saturday). Now, they get Wisconsin at home with a chance to get a signature win before jumping into the teeth of Horizon League play.

Middle Tennessee vs Belmont – Round two between these Tennessee schools that both harbor (slim) at-large hopes. Belmont took the first in double overtime back in November and tomorrow night should be just as good. Too bad it won't be televised, even by ESPN3.

Oregon St. vs Illinois-Chicago – Same deal as Oregon tonight here. Oregon St., not only for themselves, but for its entire league, absolutely must win.

Final Thought on the night in College Basketball

Finals are really the dog days of college basketball season. Nobody is really playing at all right now and it will be like that for quite some time (until the weekend). It's good that the players get to study and take their finals, I just wish some of the teams that are already done would get together with the other teams that are done for a few big games. Not everybody is taking those finals this week.

Four Point Play Weekend in Review, Dec. 12

The Four Point Play is my nightly college basketball review and preview. Catch it Monday-Thursday in its shorter form and Sunday nights for a weekend review.

Most Important Results from Weekend

Indiana 73, Kentucky 72 – Is Indiana all the way back? Of course not. The Hoosiers are still one or two big recruiting classes away. That said, Christian Watford's buzzer beating three to win this game will be looked at a long time from now as the moment when Indiana's long, bumpy road ended.

VCU 73, Richmond 51 – Richmond surprisingly looked totally out of its league in this game. Not a good sign before A-10 play. As for VCU, the win was needed, but the CAA looks mediocre and one-bid level this season.

Wisconsin 62, UNLV 51 – Pacific timezone teams need to figure out a way to get games like this on the road in better time slots (or schedule all the return games for as late as humanly possible). A sleepy 11am Pacific time tip off meant UNLV never got into this game (neither did Wisconsin other than Ben Brust and his 25 points off the bench).

Michigan St. 74, Gonzaga 67 – Huge win for Michigan St. Teams generally don't play at The Kennel by choice and when they do, they usually end up like Notre Dame did a couple of weeks ago: beaten badly and awaiting revenge the next year.

St. Joseph's 80, Creighton 71 – After a few down years, Phil Martelli looks like he has St. Joe's trending upward again. As for Creighton, the tough road schedule finally got them once.

Kansas 78, Ohio St. 67 – Kansas did what it needed to do with Sullinger not in the lineup. Even without Sullinger, huge win for Kansas. For Ohio St., no big deal unless Sullinger doesn't play for awhile.

Northern Iowa 67, Milwaukee 51 – Best mid-major matchup of the weekend goes to the Missouri Valley. The Valley has recovered from its difficult last few seasons and looks like a three-bid league right now.

Murray St. 76, Memphis 72 – Racers got the huge win needed and are likely to enter the national rankings this week with a 10-0 record. Murray St. also looks good for an at-large, not that it will need it in the OVC. As for Memphis, the Tigers are on their way to underachieving for the 3rd year in a row under Josh Pastner.

Worst Losses from Weekend

Idaho 74, Oregon St. 60 – Mid-major can't lose games like this and make no mistake about it, the Pac-12 looks and feels like a mid-major league this season (more on that later)

Ball St. 58, Butler 55 – Thus the remaining remote chances of an at-large bid for Butler go extinct. Start prepping for the Horizon League Tournament.

LSU 64, Boise St. 45 – LSU is a bad SEC team. Them beating Boise St. by such a margin shows the Broncos good record was entirely weak schedule fueled.

3 Biggest Games for Monday (slim pickins, most Monday's are until the Big Monday package heats up in mid-January)

Oregon vs Portland St. - Nothing more than Pac-12 conference pride on the line here. The Ducks are a middle of the road team in a league that has no possibility of sending middle of the road teams to the NCAA Tournament. Portland St. is much the same in the WCC.

Rutgers vs Monmouth – Rutgers isn't as good as the teams above, but its Big East rivals would surely like to see a win here, if only to ensure Rutgers stay above 200 in the RPI.

Arkansas-Little Rock vs Oral Roberts – When I said slim pickins, I meant it. Arkansas-Little Rock is a bad Sun Belt team. Oral Roberts is a good Summit League team. Both are already playing for the conference tournament, at least as far as the NCAA's go.

Three Thoughts on the weekend in College Basketball

The smoking crater that is the Pac-12 – The Pac-12 continues to lose games at an alarming rate against anyone of significance. In addition, the league continues to lose games at an alarming rate to teams of no significance (see Oregon St. to Idaho above). If this keeps up, there is a possibility the league could fall to one bid if the league champion also wins the conference tournament. While I don't think that will happen and the Pac-12 will end up with three bids (one of them wholly undeserved), the fact that its a possibility is astounding for what has traditionally been one of the best leagues in college basketball. The true measure is that there appear to be no chances to improve computer rankings once conference play begins. Only Stanford, Arizona and Cal appear to have a chance at an at-large bid right now, and all of them come with serious resume warts.

Xavier and Cincinnati brawl – The brawl between these schools was just pathetic and has no place in college basketball (or really any sport at any level except maybe hockey). While Cincinnati should be embarrassed about how its players reacted and Yancy Gates should be suspended a lot longer than the six games he is after his cheap shot knockout punch, the school that really should be in trouble is Xavier. Xavier let Cincinnati's trash talk get to them and in response went way over the line. Cincinnati coach Mick Cronin said he tried to get the officials attention about the trash talk from Xavier and they did nothing other than issue a warning. The most damning thing about all of this is the comments in the post game from the Xavier players. It sounded like this was all premeditated because they felt disrespected, kind of like the goal was to beat Cincinnati, embarrass them and then then goad them into a fight to make them look like horrible people and destroy their season. Well, it worked. Of course if the Xavier administration and the Atlantic 10 weren't looking at their financial meal ticket being thrown away here, the Xavier season would be destroyed too.

Mid-major check in – This season, mid-majors look like the big beneficiaries of the Pac-12 meltdown, especially with the Big 12 and ACC also down from their usual levels. That said, the Atlantic 10 (other than slumping Rhode Island) looks like a Power conference when looking at the records and might be in line for four bids, maybe even five if things break right in conference play. The Missouri Valley has returned to prominence and could take three bids this season. The WCC looks like a two-bid league minimum and could reach three, even without a bid stealer. And the Mountain West has weathered the loss of BYU quite well with everyone in the league carrying a record above .500 (only league in college basketball that can say that right now) and UNLV having spent time in the national rankings after beating North Carolina. These leagues often are multi-bid leagues, but they are all exceeding expectations and past performances, making it more likely we will see a high number of them in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday.