Early College Football Conference Projections

Today begins way too early College Football Previews. This is short blips on three conferences. The other BCS leagues will follow next week and the Non-BCS leagues will follow after that.

Pac-12

LaMichael James of Oregon runs away from the Stanford defense.

The North appears to be Oregon against Stanford though I think Stanford is overrated. I also think Oregon St. will bounce back a bit from last season's disappointment. Even with that, it division is Oregon's to lose. Cal will also be improved, but not enough to beat Oregon at Autzen Stadium and the Washington schools are not at a point to challenge for division titles at this point in either of their rebuilding processes. Expect Oregon to win this division fairly easily.

In the South, the best team last year was Arizona and that team seems to have all sorts of issues and baggage considering they carry a five game losing streak into the season and have to go to Oklahoma St. in week two, just a few months after getting clobbered by the Cowboys in a bowl game. Considering USC is ineligible to win the division and Colorado is starting over with a new coaching staff, that leaves underachiving UCLA, pinheaded (at least on defense with loose cannon Vontaze Burfict) Arizona St. and league newcomer Utah to compete with Arizona for the title. With how wide open it is, no outcome should be surprising here. I am picking UCLA to bounce back after last season's disaster on the basis that the near biblical plague level of injuries to quarterbacks and offensive linemen has to stop at some point and when it does this year, the offense will finally look competant for the first time under Rick Neuheisel.

Conference Title Game: Oregon over UCLA

Big Ten

Former NC State quarterback Russell Wilson may be the key
Wisconsin's season, if he enrolls there to lead the Badgers.

The other expanded league offers the idiocy of the Ohio St. situation. With players suspended and the coaching staff under siege, it won't matter this seasons. Ohio St. will still win its division, though with a loss or two thrown in. The reason being that they host Wisconsin and only two out of three out of the Nebraska, Michigan St., Michigan triumvarate will be needed to win it. To the rest other than quarterbackless Wisconsin (who becomes the favorite if NC State quarterback Russell Wilson enrolls there), good luck surviving, you will need it though I expect a better season out of Penn St.

In the other division (don't ask me the name, I still can't figure out which is the Leaders and which is the Legends), Nebraska appears to be the class of the division with Michigan St. trailing behind. Iowa is a possible threat, but I don't expect the Hawkeyes to challenge for the division title even if they do exceed expectations.

Conference Title Game: Ohio St overturns a regular season loss to Nebraska to send Jim Tressel out a winner.

SEC

The key to SEC West race lies above: Alabama hosts
LSU and Arkansas at Bryant-Denny Stadium

In the West, Auburn loses everything after winning the National Title last season. The Tigers will be lucky to even win seven games against one of the more grueling schedules in all of college football. With the champs out of the way, it comes down to Arkansas, LSU and Alabama (Mississippi St. will be good and might even determine the division champ by beating one of the top three but they won't go the minimum 2-1 against those three while also winning every other game needed to win the division). All appear loaded and all have quarterback issues to fix. The ultimate tiebreaker here will be homefield. Alabama gets both LSU and Arkansas at home to see them through.

In the East, Georgia will be the best team by the end of the season, but South Carolina will beat the Bulldogs early and make it stand up to win the division for a second straight year. Tennessee is still a year or two away from being a real contender again (not that it mattered when average Tennessee teams won the east in 2004 and 2007) and Florida is just a mess offensively right now despite the overwhelming talent level there. The Gators will ultimately be fine under new coach Will Muschamp, but before another year of suffering.

Conference Title Game: Alabama over South Carolina

College Basketball Conference Previews – Mountain West

Team Capsules are in order of predicted finish. Records are current as of the begging of the day on Thursday December 16

San Diego St. - 11-0, Quality wins at Gonzaga and Cal and vs St. Mary's and Wichita St.

The Aztecs are led by the rare NBA prospect running through the Mountain West, Kawhi Leonard. He is just one rebound on the season from averaging a double-double and the difference he makes in the lineup is immense. Witness the close game with Cal Poly over the weekend when Leonard didn't play. With Leonard in the lineup, only Gonzaga has eve been close to the Aztecs. In addition to Leonard, the Aztecs have three others averaging double figures in scoring and the team from top to bottom is the most athletic in the Mountain West.

UNLV – 9-2, Quality wins over Wisconsin and Virginia Tech, Bad loss to UC Santa Barbara

Don't pay any attention to the loss against UCSB. The Rebels have one or two games like that every season where they outplay the opposition but can't shoot straight and lose. Normally it happens in conference play, but this season they got one out of the way a bit earlier. This team is a veteran squad and they will get it figured out despite a very disheartening last three halves of basketball after leading Louisville at the half. That said, the Rebels need to figure it out quick with a trip to Kansas St. ahead. Even if they don't have it all back in working order by that game, they should still be in very good shape for an NCAA Tourney bid.

BYU – 10-0, Quality wins over South Florida, St. Mary's and Arizona (by blowout)

The Cougars are definitely good again, but they have been tested by some teams that aren't as good as usual. UCLA will be yet another of those team this week. Jimmer Fredette is the best pure shooter in college basketball, but he alone won't be enough to beat San Diego St., a much more athletic team or UNLV, a team that matches up very well with the Cougars. Nonetheless, the NCAA Tournament is likely again before BYU vacates the Mountain West.

New Mexico – 7-1, Quality win over Arizona St., Loss was blowout at Cal

Lobos seem to be doing a good job replacing Darrington Hobson, last season's conference player of the year. Other than the two games mentioned against Pac-10 teams, we haven't seen the Lobos play any team with much of a pulse. We will learn much more about this team and if they are a real contender for an at-large tourney berth during a three-game stretch starting next week against Colorado, Texas Tech and Dayton, all away from home.

TCU – 7-4, Quality wins over Houston, USC and Texas Tech, Bad losses to Rider and Northern Iowa

The Horned Frogs have been all over the map so far this season and it all has to do with a very inconsistent offense. In each of the seven wins, TCU has scored at least 74 points while not getting past 61 in any of the four losses. They also need to do a better job of rebounding getting beaten on the boards in three of the four losses and getting absolutely hammered on the glass (-15) in the blowout loss to Nebraska. This team is not a tournament team, but it will likely win a couple of games against the teams in front of them while giving those games back to the bottom end of the league.

Utah – 6-3, No Quality wins, no bad losses

The Utes are nothing if not consistent. Michigan, Utah St. and Oral Roberts are the three best teams they played and Utah lost to them all. The other six are not in that same class and the Utes have beaten all of them. That is the sign of a well-coached but talent-deficient roster. In fact, once you get beyond Will Clyburn and Josh Watkins, nobody else on the team can score at all. Against the better teams on the schedule with decent athletes and defensive stoppers, that is a problem and it will certainly be a problem against the top four in this league.

Colorado St. - 4-3, no quality wins, bad loss to Sam Houston St.

The Rams were supposed to take the step forward and get near the top four in the league this season. While there is still time for coach Tim Miles and his team to do that, it doesn't look good so far. In fact, Colorado St. looks like a mirror of Utah thus far: two scorers (Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin) and nobody else that can be counted on for any offense whatsoever. With that in mind, this team is not good enough on defense or on the boards to overcome the lack of a 3^rd scoring option.

Wyoming – 4-6, no quality wins, littered with bad losses

The Cowboys are a bad basketball team. They can't score (under 70 points per game) and share the ball even worse (just 10.1 assists per game) while being unable to defend at the high level needed to overcome that. If they beat any team in the top four, that will cost a seed line or two when it comes to Selection Sunday.

Air Force – 6-2, No quality wins, no real bad losses all things considered

The Falcons just don't have the talent and aren't likely to ever have the talent to compete in the Mountain West on a consistent basis. The great run of a few years ago was the combination of the right coach at the right time in a down league where normal powers BYU, UNLV and New Mexico were all playing well below historical levels. Considering where these guys are headed after school, I hope they can win a few games, but it doesn't look likely (other than against Wyoming and maybe Colorado St. or TCU).

College Basketball Conference Previews – SEC West

Let's just be honest here. The SEC West stinks. There is nobody good. A loss by a bubble team to any team from the West except maybe Mississippi St, and Arkansas is a possibly critical blow to NCAA Tournament hopes. Yes, it's that bad. In fact, other than those two, the rest of the West should be preparing for trying to make a run through the conference tournament. They are non-BCS second class citizens.

Team capsules are in order of predicted finish

Mississippi St. - 6-2 so far with no quality wins and losses to Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee St.

The Bulldogs are only on top with that resume because of the weakness of the other teams in the division and the presence of top recruit Renardo Sidney who will finally become eligible to play when the team squares off against Virginia Tech. In fact, this team can erase quite a bit of the bad non-conference performance without Sidney by winning against the Hokies and then doing well at the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii with a field that includes a game against Washington St. and the presence of big resume builders Baylor, Butler, and Florida St. Also, the Bulldogs divert to Las Vegas for a neutral court game against St. Mary's. Win most or all of those and this team is NCAA Tourney good. They won't, but will win enough to get onto the bubble come March.

Arkansas – 6-1 so far with wins over Oklahoma and Seton Hall (not good but still BCS conferences) and a loss to UAB.

Not much was expected of Arkansas coming into the season, so the 6-1 record is a surprise. That said, there is still a lack of talent here and while the SEC West likely won't exploit that, games against the East and against Texas A&M and Texas likely will. The Hogs will win enough to see the NIT, but are not a serious threat to make the NCAA Tournament.

Ole Miss – 6-2 with no quality wins and losses to the two best teams they played (Dayton and Miami)

Chris Warren is a heck of a player and might be the best player in the division, but there is painfully little talent other than him. The remaining schedule until SEC play begins is easy and the Rebels should be 11-2, but that won't be good enough to overcome a .500 at best record because there aren't a whole lot of wins available against the better teams in the East.

LSU (6-3), Alabama (4-5) and Auburn (3-5) – I place these teams here collectively because they are all awful basketball teams. In fact, if any of these teams were in the Big Ten, Big 12 or Big East, I might call for a winless conference season. They will avoid that fate because of each other and the weakness of other teams in the West. In fact, it would qualify as one of the upsets of the season if any of these teams beat a team other than South Carolina from the East. They are that bad and lack that much talent. In fact, an all-star team comprised of players from these teams still would have almost no chance of making the NCAA Tournament. As for quality wins, between them, the closest is probably LSU's nine point home LOSS to Memphis. Needless to say, any loss to one of these three teams would be highly damaging to a bubble teams and might cost a seed line or even two for a lock team.