Giro d'Italia Power Poll – Final Stage Time Trial Preview

The Giro d'Italia is down to one day: a final day time trial to decide everything with the overall winner and the composition of the final podium still in doubt. Here is my predicted final top 10 (current position in parenthesis) along with my thoughts on the entire race for each.

1 Ryder Hesjedal (2), Garmin – Tomorrow is the biggest time trial of Hesjedal's life. He might never get another opportunity to win a Grand Tour. This is it. He is better than his rival Rodriguez in the discipline and he will need to be to make 31 seconds up over 31 km. As for the race as a whole, Hesjedal has ridden a smart race ever since the Team Time Trial put him in great position back on stage 4. His only two bobbles have been the day after his two big attacks putting him basically level with where he would have been had he not attacked. He is the big favorite to win the Giro tomorrow.

2 Joaquim Rodriguez (1), Katusha – JRod is not exaclty a specialist in the time trial. OK, he stinks. To win tomorrow he will need the time trial of his life and if he has an off day, De Gendt and Scarponi are in range of catching him. Even so, this has been a big move forward for Rodriguez after his implosions while leading in the last two Vuelta a Espana's. Speaking of the Vuelta, this year's course is heavy on mountains (quite possibly heavier than last year's Giro believe it or not) and therefore might be Rodriguez's best chance to win a Grand Tour if he loses tomorrow (that is assuming he can beat a pssobily still not on form Contador in the mountains).

3Thomas De Gendt (4), Vaconsoleil – Today was the biggest ride of De Gendt's life, racing into contention. He is likely too far back to catch Hesjedal even though he is the best time trialist among the contenders. If he recovers well and is on form, I think he has a good shot to win the stage and as long as he's not awful he should make up 27” needed to catch Scarponi. Not a bad race for a guy who was thought to maybe have a shot at a stage win in a breakaway.

4 Michele Scarponi (3), Lampre – The defending champion has not had a great race. Bad stage 1 time trial and bad team time trial really hurt and his attacks in the mountains have been largely unsuccessful. There is no way he beats Hesjedal or De Gendt in a time trial if either is even close to on form. Still, he will be no worse than fourth as there is no way anyone behind De Gendt possibly catches him with the time gaps that currently exist.

5 Ivan Basso (5), Liquigas – An ok time trialer, Basso pretty much sits in no man's land. Only Cunego is within a minute in either direction so it is difficult to see Basso gaining or losing a place in the standings. Still, this race has been a failure and marks the end of the line as a Grand Tour contender for the two-time Giro champion. In addition, Basso's tactics blew up his Liquigas team. The entire team has been burned out working for him. I suspect it might have been the same in 2010 when Basso last won the Giro except his main teammate was Vincenzo Nibali and Nibali has turned out to be pretty darn good since then (won Vuelta in 2010, 3^rd in Giro last year moved up to 2^nd when Contador was stripped, podium finishes in two monuments this year).

6 Rigerberto Uran (7), Team Sky – Good time trial skills should equal a chance to at least catch Cunego in the GC. I think he will do that and this race will be looked at very successfully by himself and his Team Sky managers.

7 Damiano Cunego (6), Lampre – I don't even know what to say here. Cunego is weak against the clock and is a tactical nightmare and wild card, but he gets results. Finished second today at Stelvio and is going to turn in another top 10 GT finish (to go with his fluky 2004 Giro win).

8 Sergio Henao (11), Team Sky – I have no idea how good or bad Henao is in the time trial, but he can't possibily be any worse at this level than Pozzovivo, Nieve or Gadret, his closest rivals. This was a good learning experience for Henao. I expect him to be back and contending for the podium in this race soon.

9 Mikel Nieve (9), Euskatel – Carrot Power. Nieve didn't get his stage win (though his team did get one this year) like he did last year, but this will have been a very successful race if he can stay in the top 10. With Gadret behind, it shouldn't be a problem, even if Nieve inherited his team's allergy to good time trials.

10 Dominico Pozzovivo (8), Colnago -Truly pathetic in the time trial, Pozzovivo is a climbers climber who can't even descend well. Given those limitations, it is surprising that he has done this well. I suspect he will remain in the top 10 only because 12^th place Dario Cataldo (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) is too far back to catch him and 10^th place John Gadret (Ag2r) is similarly awful in the time trial.

Giro D'Italia Stage 20 - De Gendt's ride for the ages caps best GT stage in years

Today's stage: Utter brutality. Mortirolo (one of the three most difficult climbs in Europe along with the Zoncolan and the Angliru) and then a summit finish atop the Passo Dello Stelvio (highest ever finish for a Grand Tour stage)

Who won today's stage? Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil) defied conventional wisdom and attacked on the upped slopes of the Mortirolo. The GC leaders never saw him again. At one point on the Stelvio, it looked like De Gendt had a shot at the race lead also, but he has settled into fourth place going into the time trial. The ride itself was one of the more incredible long distance attacks we have seen in recent years (rivaled only by Andy Schleck's attack on the Galibier stage in last year's Tour de France) and is now the biggest win of De Gendt's career, by far.

What matters in the GC race? A remaking and moving of the pieces entering the final stage time trial tomorrow. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads the race after a late attack dropped his rivals. He finished 4^th on the stage. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) is still second, but he now trails by 31 seconds. Michele Scarponi (Lampre) is 3^rd, 1'51” behind and De Gendt moved from 8^th to 4^th with his incredible ride, now 2'18” behind and with a chance at the podium tomorrow.

What matters in the other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Oh what might have been for Mark Cavendish (Team Sky). He has lost the lead to Rodriguez by one point with only the time trial left. Had Cavendish won the sprint on Thursday, he would have this jersey locked down. Instead, he needs the best time trial of his life to score points tomorrow and retake the jersey on the final day. It looks unlikely though Rodrgiuez is also unlikely to score points tomorrow (and he really doesn't care either given that he is the overall leader).

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) managed to get himself in the early breakaway and scored enough points on the early climbs to seal the final blue jersey. With Rabottini in the break, none of the other outside shots that were possibilities bothered to contest today.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Sergio Henao (Team Sky) played good teammate today. At one point, Hesjedal dropped all but a few riders. Henao had managed to stay with Hesjedal and could have continued on and possibly taken the jersey from his teammate Rigerberto Uran. Instead, Henao dropped back and helped pace Uran up the Stelvio to protect the higher overall position and leave the jersey in the hands of his teammate.

Biggest surprise: De Gendt attacked from so far away. The Mortirolo, fearsome though it is, was thought to not be decisive this year because of the 20 km flat run up to the Stelvio. Instead, it played the same role as the Passo Lavaze did yesterday. De Gendt sent a teammate up the road just a little bit and then attacked himself, like Roman Krueziger (Astana) did yesterday. Then De Gendt rode away with the race though he didn't fade as bad as Krueziger did yesterday. The tactics were solid and the ride was superb, helped a bit by. De Gendt is a most deserving winner, but the amount of his time gap was helped by...

Biggest disappointment: ...the GC staring match. In the valley between the Mortirolo and the Stelvio, the top six GC men (Rodriguez, Hesjedal, Scarponi, Basso, Uran and Pozzovivo) all stared at each other, nearly coming to a total stop as all refused to work, attempting to make Hesjedal and his Garmin team do the pacemaking. This continued all the way nearly to the top of the Stelvio. Had De Gendt not faded in the final two kilometers, he would be leading the GC right now because of this since he actually got a lead on the day of over five minutes and at one point was ahead of Hesjedal on Virtual GC (the overall standings if the stage was stopped on the spot). Then, after making Hesjedal do all the work, Scarponi and Rodriguez attacked (Basso, Pozzovivo and Uran get a pass as they were dropped by Hesjedal on the Stelvio before the attacks started). Considering De Gendt is as good a time trialer (maybe even better) as Hesjedal, Rodriguez and Scarponi stupidly nearly let another threat to the overall enter the picture. As it is, De Gendt is a threat to their podium places now.

Other items of note: Four riders including Robbie Hunter (Garmin) and stage 18 winner Andrea Guardini (Farnese Vini) were disqualified from the race today for holding onto cars... The question for Mark Cavendish now is, “Was it worth it?” We will see. Cavendish has difficulties (that's an understatement) in the mountains and suffered all week in an attempt to win the Red Jersey (and complete his collection of Grand Tour points jerseys having already won the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana competitions). I suspect the answer won't come until the end of July. That would be the Olympic Road Race, being held on home roads in London and likely a sprint finish.

What is coming tomorrow? The final time trial for all the marbles. Hesjedal is most certainly the favorite as Rodriguez is notoriously bad in the time trial (remember that he lost four minutes in a stage 17 time trial while leading the 2010 Vuelta a Espana) while Hesjedal is good. Further down, De Gendt is excellent if Hesjedal has a bad day tomorrow and he is likely more of a threat than Scarponi is if we get further down the line. Extended preview of the time trial later today.

Giro d'Italia Stage 17 - And the race is on, finally

Today's stage: A brutal day of climbing. This is the second year in a row the Passo Giau has been in the race and the second year in a row it has destroyed the peloton despite not being a summit finish. Of course some of that is because the Passo Giau day has been, for 2 years now, the single most brutal day of Grand Tour climbing there is. This year, there were three other climbs, one of them aanother category 1 and another a category 2 that ascended for 30 km.

Who won today's stage? Overall leader Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) took a 6-man sprint over Ivan Basso (Liquigas), Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin), Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Rigoberto Uran (Team Sky) and Dominico Pozzovivo (Colnago) after the descent from the Giau climb.

What matters in the GC race? The race has now exploded. The six men who contested the final sprint now are in the top seven overall in the race with only Benat Intxausti (Movistar) also in the top seven. Rodriguez still leads Hesjedal by 30 seconds (no time bonuses today, same for Friday-Sunday) and Basso by 1'22”. The three of them and defending champion Scarponi (trails Rodriguez by 1'36”) are the only true contenders left for the overall victory because most of the others who could make up their time gaps (this applies mostly to Pozzovivo) are horrible in the time trial. Also of note in the GC was the explosion of Astana. Roman Krueziger was out the back of the front group before the Giau even started and is now 20^th, 12'53” behind and Paulo Tiralongo was dropped on the Giau and fell to 8^th, 4'13” behind.

What matters in the other competitions?

Red Jersey (Points) – Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) still leads and he has a chance a points again tomorrow. But his lead is only one point over Rodriguez, the most likely winner in this competition now.

Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) smartly got himself in the breakaway today. He took points on the first three climbs and now has a significant advantage over everyone else.

White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Former leader Sergio Henao (Team Sky) cracked on the Giau along with almost everyone else who managed to even get that far. He is still second in the classification and trails his teammate Uran by 1'46”. The only other rider in any sort of shouting distance is Gianluca Brambilla (Colnago) at 3'33” behind. Everyone else is at least 13 minutes behind Uran.

Biggest surprise: Astana cracked. The entire team. Those who have been reading know I have long thought Krueziger would crack. Still, I expected Tiralongo to be able to hang around and he didn't. He didn't even finish with the second group today and now Astana has been pretty much reduced to stage hunting from here with Tiralongo 8^th and Krueziger 20^th. Maybe they can spring Kevin Seeldrayers for a stage win as he looked good in the breakaway today.

Biggest disappointment: Whatever happened to cause Sylvester Szmyd's (Liquigas) mechanical. Szmyd had been safely riding at the back of the lead group all day just waiting for the Giau to pace Basso up and detonate the entire peloton. Then Szmyd had a mechanical issue with his bike on the lower slopes and that was the end of him for the day. I wonder what the last group would have looked like had Szmyd been there. Most likely Uran and Scarponi's hopes for this Giro would be over considering they were dropped by Pozzovivo at the top of the Giau and chased back to the lead group.

Other items of note: The total number of withdrawn riders is 29... Given that everyone is continuing to make the time cuts, I expect the number to not grow much more with only four days left to race... One big surprise a bit further down the GC was Jose Rujano's (Androni-Giacattoli) complete implosion today. The pint sized climber was near the front and won 2 stages last years. Today, he lost over 30 minutes in a stunning implosion.

What is coming tomorrow? A sign that suffering is about to commence. 139 km straight downhill for a sprint finish. Considering Cavendish is basically the only sprinter still in the race, he is the easy choice for tomorrow. Then comes the suffering on Friday and Saturday with two most difficult stages.

Giro d'Italia Daily - Stage 1 TT

Today's stage: A short, flat 8.7 km time trial in Denmark to kick of the Giro d'Italia

Who won today's stage? Taylor Phinney (BMC) won the biggest race of his young career thus far and it doubles as the first thing BMC has won all season. Geraint Thomas (Team Sky) was second and Alex Rasmussen (Garmin-Barracuda) was 3^rd riding in his home country.

What matters in the GC race? We have a Giro that, for the most part, is even more allergic to time trials than usual. The generally accepted GC contenders are Michele Scarponi (Lampre, 135^th place), Ivan Basso (Liquigas-Cannondale, 35^th place), Joaquin Rodriguez (Katusha, 44^th place), Frank Schleck (Radio Shack-Nissan-Trek, 108^th place) and Roman Krueziger (Astana, 29^th place). Given those results, it's obvious what this Giro will be about (mountains, always mountains) unless darkhorse Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Barricuda, 17^th place) has better climbing legs than expected.

What matters in the other competitions? Nothing so far. Phinney qualifies for the young riders category too so he leads everything right now.

Biggest surprise: Nothing. Many in the cycling world thought Phinney, Thomas and Rasmussen were all possible stage winners. Them finishing on the podium is no shock.

Biggest disappointment: Scarponi's ride in the pink jersey was terrible. After being presented with last year's pink jersey after Alberto Contador was disqualified, Scarponi got the honor of starting in the pink jersey and starting last. He then turned in a worse time than Frank Schleck. The same Frank Schleck who despises time trials and also didn't know he was racing the Giro until teammate Jakob Fuglsang was injured a week ago.

Other items of note: The sprinters will not be happy. For the most part these first stage time trials are shorter and leave them close enough to take the overall lead with time bonuses. Given the length though, the sprinters are a bit too far back for that to happen as the longer a time trial gets, the better the specialists in the discipline do.

What is coming tomorrow? Long, boring, dull sprint day. Maybe crosswinds will play a role, but barring that, it will be a long processional that catches the breakaway 15 km before the finish and finishes in a bunch sprint, likely to be won by either Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) or Tyler Farrar (Garmin-Barracuda).