May 26, 2012

Giro D'Italia Stage 20 - De Gendt's ride for the ages caps best GT stage in years


Today's stage: Utter brutality. Mortirolo (one of the three most difficult climbs in Europe along with the Zoncolan and the Angliru) and then a summit finish atop the Passo Dello Stelvio (highest ever finish for a Grand Tour stage)

Who won today's stage? Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil) defied conventional wisdom and attacked on the upped slopes of the Mortirolo. The GC leaders never saw him again. At one point on the Stelvio, it looked like De Gendt had a shot at the race lead also, but he has settled into fourth place going into the time trial. The ride itself was one of the more incredible long distance attacks we have seen in recent years (rivaled only by Andy Schleck's attack on the Galibier stage in last year's Tour de France) and is now the biggest win of De Gendt's career, by far.

What matters in the GC race? A remaking and moving of the pieces entering the final stage time trial tomorrow. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads the race after a late attack dropped his rivals. He finished 4th on the stage. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) is still second, but he now trails by 31 seconds. Michele Scarponi (Lampre) is 3rd, 1'51” behind and De Gendt moved from 8th to 4th with his incredible ride, now 2'18” behind and with a chance at the podium tomorrow.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – Oh what might have been for Mark Cavendish (Team Sky). He has lost the lead to Rodriguez by one point with only the time trial left. Had Cavendish won the sprint on Thursday, he would have this jersey locked down. Instead, he needs the best time trial of his life to score points tomorrow and retake the jersey on the final day. It looks unlikely though Rodrgiuez is also unlikely to score points tomorrow (and he really doesn't care either given that he is the overall leader).
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) managed to get himself in the early breakaway and scored enough points on the early climbs to seal the final blue jersey. With Rabottini in the break, none of the other outside shots that were possibilities bothered to contest today.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Sergio Henao (Team Sky) played good teammate today. At one point, Hesjedal dropped all but a few riders. Henao had managed to stay with Hesjedal and could have continued on and possibly taken the jersey from his teammate Rigerberto Uran. Instead, Henao dropped back and helped pace Uran up the Stelvio to protect the higher overall position and leave the jersey in the hands of his teammate.

Biggest surprise: De Gendt attacked from so far away. The Mortirolo, fearsome though it is, was thought to not be decisive this year because of the 20 km flat run up to the Stelvio. Instead, it played the same role as the Passo Lavaze did yesterday. De Gendt sent a teammate up the road just a little bit and then attacked himself, like Roman Krueziger (Astana) did yesterday. Then De Gendt rode away with the race though he didn't fade as bad as Krueziger did yesterday. The tactics were solid and the ride was superb, helped a bit by. De Gendt is a most deserving winner, but the amount of his time gap was helped by...

Biggest disappointment: ...the GC staring match. In the valley between the Mortirolo and the Stelvio, the top six GC men (Rodriguez, Hesjedal, Scarponi, Basso, Uran and Pozzovivo) all stared at each other, nearly coming to a total stop as all refused to work, attempting to make Hesjedal and his Garmin team do the pacemaking. This continued all the way nearly to the top of the Stelvio. Had De Gendt not faded in the final two kilometers, he would be leading the GC right now because of this since he actually got a lead on the day of over five minutes and at one point was ahead of Hesjedal on Virtual GC (the overall standings if the stage was stopped on the spot). Then, after making Hesjedal do all the work, Scarponi and Rodriguez attacked (Basso, Pozzovivo and Uran get a pass as they were dropped by Hesjedal on the Stelvio before the attacks started). Considering De Gendt is as good a time trialer (maybe even better) as Hesjedal, Rodriguez and Scarponi stupidly nearly let another threat to the overall enter the picture. As it is, De Gendt is a threat to their podium places now.

Other items of note: Four riders including Robbie Hunter (Garmin) and stage 18 winner Andrea Guardini (Farnese Vini) were disqualified from the race today for holding onto cars... The question for Mark Cavendish now is, “Was it worth it?” We will see. Cavendish has difficulties (that's an understatement) in the mountains and suffered all week in an attempt to win the Red Jersey (and complete his collection of Grand Tour points jerseys having already won the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana competitions). I suspect the answer won't come until the end of July. That would be the Olympic Road Race, being held on home roads in London and likely a sprint finish.

What is coming tomorrow? The final time trial for all the marbles. Hesjedal is most certainly the favorite as Rodriguez is notoriously bad in the time trial (remember that he lost four minutes in a stage 17 time trial while leading the 2010 Vuelta a Espana) while Hesjedal is good. Further down, De Gendt is excellent if Hesjedal has a bad day tomorrow and he is likely more of a threat than Scarponi is if we get further down the line. Extended preview of the time trial later today.

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