Showing posts with label Joaquim Rodriguez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joaquim Rodriguez. Show all posts

Aug 18, 2012

Vuelta a Espana Stage 1 TTT Review


There are two things wanted by most neutral fans in a Team Time Trial. A close, suspenseful race and unintentional comedy (who can forget Skil-Shimano riding with half their team in a ditch on a farm after overshooting a turn during the 2009 Tour de France TTT). Today, we got both as one team crashed (not seriously) and the final team to race won the stage after a number of close calls for potential lead changes.

The rundown, team by team in reverse order of finish with prospects for the rest of the race.

Caja Rural: As expected, this team finished last. They are pretty much allergic to the time trial as a discipline and also have no prospects for GC on the roster. This is the Spanish version of the Pro Continental team that is here to be sacrificed to everybody else. The goal is simply to get into breakaways and maybe steal a stage win somewhere.

Garmin-Sharp: Normally, this is one of the best TTT teams in the world. They won the TTT at the Giro and also recently at the Tour of Utah (though none of the Utah riders are here) and also finished 8th with about a C- level team in the TTT at the Eneco Tour. Things started out nicely (early leader at the first time check) before a crash killed their chances (unintentional comedy checked off) and hurt Andrew Talansky's hopes for a top 10 on GC. Talansky is nearly 1'30 behind the leaders already.

Andalucia: The other Spanish Pro Continental sacrifice, Andalucia has few well-known riders and will be looking for breakaways the whole race. This was still a decent race for them despite 20th place as they were within 10 seconds of Lampre and RadioShack.

Argos-Shimano: The former Skil-Shimano has improved greatly since the horrible TTT in the 2009 Tour de France referenced earlier, but they still aren't good. This team figures to be working hard tomorrow as they brought the best sprinter in the field (John Degenkolb) so it is likely they didn't work super hard on this stage, especially with no GC contender on the team.

FDJ: Only in this race because World Tour rules say they have to be, FDJ didn't send anyone of note to the race (Arnold Jeannesson is the best and his claim to fame is being the guy who got hurt allowing Thiabult Pinot to ride the Tour de France) and will be on the Caja Rural/Andalucia breakaway plan.

RadioShack: Good luck and Godspeed. This team seems like it is collapsing in on itself with all the insanity going on and no results to speak of outside of Fabian Cancellara's first week of the Tour de France. The team lined up here doesn't look great, but maybe that will be better for a team that hasn't looked much like a team for most of the season and has been even worse off since Andy Schleck was injured during the Criterium du Dauphine in June. Even with Maxime Monfort here, this appears to be a rudderless ship.

Lampre: They can't do TTT's. They showed that on home roads in the Giro. That and a team built around Cunego looks likely to disappoint, especially since Cunego is more likely to be targeting the World Championships (on a course suited for his talents) and the Giro di Lombardia. I have no expectations for this team. None, whatsoever.

Cofidis: An ok ride in this TTT, but this race is about one thing and one thing only: getting David Moncoutie one last Vuelta King of the Mountains victory before he rides off into retirement.

Liquigas: Question A for this team is if they are even going to exist two months from now. Given the exodus of riders and lack of those entering the team (that we know of), it seems like the team is collapsing with Liquigas pulling out as a sponsor next year. Question B is what on Earth are they doing here? The two star GC men of the team (Nibali and Basso) are in the United States for the US Pro Cycling Challenge starting on Monday and team leader Eros Capecchi has seemed to have maxed out as a domestique career wise. Also, Peter Sagan is in Germany and up and coming start Moreno Moser is in the United States with Nibali and Basso. Whatever, given the low level roster this team brought, Liquigas put in a good ride today.

Vacansoleil: Lost 35 seconds which isn't great for Thomas de Gendt, but this team has brought a bunch of breakaway artists along with de Gendt. Not great support for a possible Grand Tour podium run (though de Gendt had basically no support for his podium at the Giro). I wonder what this team will do in the ongoing transfer season to support de Gendt as he is obviously far more talented than most imagined.

Ag2r: Considering the two stars of the team (John Gadret and Nicolas Roche, who hate each other by the way) can't time trial, only losing 34 seconds and finishing in 12th place is a great ride for this team. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see what happens as Roche is leaving the team for Saxo Bank at the end of the season. Is Roche on his own, especially if Gadret is close to him in the standings, and will Roche work to support Gadret if called upon to do so?

Astana: Anything this team does here is gravy on top of an incredibly successful season. They won the Amstel Gold, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Olympics and two stages of the Giro. Still, I expect at least a stage win somewhere long the line as Tour de France KoM runner up Fredrik Kessiakoff and early Giro contenders before fading Paolo Tiralongo are here.

Orica-GreenEdge: A disappointing result today after winning at Eneco. It shows the value of a top level individual time trialist (Svein Tuft who won the ITT at Eneco after pacing the team in the TTT). This team doesn't look super strong though and I expect little out of them here.

Euskatel: That Euskatel managed to finish a TTT in the top 10 with Samuel Sanchez not in the team is bordering on miraculous. This could mean good things for the carrots as team leader Igor Anton is not starting 90 seconds behind this year. The team should animate stage 3 as it is a home stage for them. The biggest question, other than Anton's form is his bike handling. He crashed out as the leader in 2010 and also crashed out in 2008.

Katusha: That they finished with a good result isn't as surprising as it was when they finished second in the Giro. Joaquim Rodriguez has obviously improved as a time trialist (even if he's still below average) and Denis Menchov is here to support him as well. This is one of the teams with legitimate GC ambitions as Rodriguez was second at the Giro. If he falters, Menchov has won three Grand Tours and Daniel Moreno has a similar skill set as Rodriguez and could factor into the equation as well.

Saxo Bank: It's a about Contador. Alberto Contador, coming off his suspension, rode at the front of the team all race today. The team is all in for Contador and will be hoping the long layoff without racing won't have hurt his explosiveness too much. With only two seconds lost to rival Chris Froome, this was a successful day.

Lotto-Belisol: The team of Jurgen Van Den Broeck did quite well today and Van Den Broeck will be happy not to have to share domestiques with a big sprinter like he had to with Andre Griepel at the Tour de France. Good start today.

Team Sky: It was a big shock when they didn't take the lead today with Chris Froome and Richie Porte on the roster. Still, this is a really strong climbing team with Froome as the lead man and Porte, Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao on the roster to try and control the race just as the Tour de France was controlled.

BMC: No major GC threats. Just redemption today after a crash filled debacle in the TTT at Eneco where they lost over 2 minutes. The team brings Philippe Gilbert and Alessandro Ballan building form for the World Championships and maybe an outside GC threat (top 10) with Brent Bookwalter.

Omega Pharma Quick Step (OPQS) – This team is mostly building form for the World Championships as well. Maybe Tony Martin would have a prayer on a flatter course, but this thing is most certainly not flat. Still a good result today for a team that has a lot of good time trialers on the roster.
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Rabobank: Team redemption is off to a good start with a second place today. Still, today isn't what ultimately matters on this team. It is keeping Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema upright and getting the through to the finish both in the top 10 on GC with one of them preferably on the podium.

Movistar: The huge shock of the day. Nobody expected a TTT win from Movistar. Out of 36 fans on the podiumcafe predictor game, only one thought Movistar would finish in the top 5. Despite the win, there is still reason for Movistar to worry. Defending Vuelta champion JJ Cobo was dropped at the end and didn't finish with the team (he lost five seconds). This is troubling to say the least.

Aug 16, 2012

Vuelta a Espana (aka kill the peloton with climbs) Preview


It's Vuelta time

After the highs of the Tour de France and the Olympics and a long season already, the cycling peloton (minus a few top riders that either are done for the year or with US leanings) heads to Spain for the Vuelta a Espana. Normally, the Vuelta is the red-headed stepchild of the three Grand Tours, drawing a weaker field reserved for Spaniards who aren't going to ever win the Tour de France, riders that crashed out of the Tour de France and those that targeted the Giro d'Italia and need some late season racing. This year though, a combination of factors has seemingly elevated the Vuelta above it's normal perch.

The field: Last year, JJ Cobo (now Movistar, then the now defunct Geox-TMC) shocked the cycling world, coming from nowhere to beat out of nowhere Chris Froome (Team Sky) and a recovering from crash Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) on a course that didn't suit Wiggins nearly like the recent Tour de France course that Wiggins won on did. This year, Cobo is about the 6th choice in the field. While part of that is Cobo (the guy has done basically nothing all season), part of that is the rest of the field. It is one of the strongest Vuelta fields I have ever seen.

Starting at the top, we have Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff). Contador hasn't raced all season because of his suspension, but he is still the best Grand Tour rider in the peloton and is also by far the most explosive attacker in the mountains. He enters as the favorite despite little racing up to this point (he did finish 4th overall at the recent Eneco Tour in his first race back after the suspension).

Also, Froome is back and while he was beaten by Cobo last year, that was by a combination of time bonuses and Froome waiting for Wiggins on the Angliru climb allowing Cobo to get away. Beyond that, Froome is much more of a favorite than Cobo in part because he followed up his Vuelta breakthrough last year with an equally impressive result in the Tour de France (2nd to his teammate Wiggins). The big question about Froome is how he will recover from his Tour de France effort and the Olympic effort that followed (Froome raced for Great Britain in the road race and then won the Bronze Medal in the time trial).

Beyond the two favorites and the defending champion Cobo, the two podium finishers from the Giro are also here. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) was likely salivating at the thought of this course, until Contador's suspension came down and allowed him to race here. Rodriguez does everything Contador does, just not as well. If Contador is off form, Rodriguez could find himself in a similar position to the Giro, battling for the race lead into the final days. The big difference here is that the time trial that cost Rodriguez the win at the Giro is much earlier, allowing him to retake time in the mountains that remain after that.

Giro 3rd place Thomas de Gendt (Vacansoleil) is also here for his first meaningful riding post-Giro (he got married on the day of the first stage of the Tour de France). In his last two Grand Tours, de Gendt has been incredibly strong in the final week and especially the final days of the race (at the 2011 Tour, he was five on both the Alpe d'Huez stage and the time trial and then won the Passo del Stevio stage at the Giro and finished in the top five of the time trial there as well). If he can keep from losing time early in the race (no easy task, especially here), de Gendt could be a threat for the podium again in the final week.

Also, the crashed and wrecked contingent of the Tour de France is stronger this season than in recent years. In particular, Rabobank's Dutch pair of Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema are both here. Gesink has long been tapped for Grand Tour success because of his incredible climbing ability (which he used to win the Tour of California on the Mount Baldy stage in May), but he generally struggles to stay on his bike, crashing with regularity. His teammate Mollema was 4th in this race last season but was caught along with Gesink and entire Garmin team in the stage 6 crash in the Tour de France. He will be looking to rebound and save a particularly disappointing season.

The route: The other thing that has upped the Vuelta's prestige this season is the route, especially after a couple of average bordering on dull and totally uninspired routes at the Giro and the Tour. (Seriously, the Giro, while great in the final week was dull as can be for the two weeks before that and the Tour de France was suffocated by the two long time trials without enough mountains close to the finish to dent the Team Sky train).

Here, there are mountains and summit finishes pretty much everywhere. Enough that I expect everyone in the peloton to crack at least once during the race. The key thing is to manage the race, not crack on a key stage, and limit the time losses when the inevitable crack comes.

The mountains start right off the bat with summit finishes in stages 3 and 4. After that there is a mix of sprints, uphill finishes and a time trial (along with a summit finish in Andorra on stage 8). Then the race gets insane. Stages 14-16 are all summit finishes with the stage 16 finale a monstrous climb to Cuitu Negru that includes ramps up to 23% in gradient. Still, that is not the climax. The climax comes on the second to last day when the Bola del Mundo makes its return after a one year absence on a stage with three category one climbs and a category 2 climb before the peloton even reaches the foot of the fearsome Bola del Mundo. Needless to say, with 10 summit finishes in the race, this is a spectacle for the climbers (and one that likely will kill the legs of any serious contenders here before the World Championships and the Giro di Lombardia for those that will target those races).

Final pick: Contador. He will struggle early in the race, likely ceding time on stage 3 or stage 4 before getting his legs under himself and smashing the field on stage 14-16 and possibly again at Bola del Mundo.

May 27, 2012

Hesjedal confirms his victory - Giro d'Italia Final Stage


Today's stage: The time trial to solve it all in Milan.

Final Race Results – Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) finished 6th place on the stage and took 47 seconds from Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) to win the Giro d'Italia on the final day. His win is his first Grand Tour victory (previous best 6th in 2010 Tour de France), the first for Canada (previous best: Steve Bauer, 4th in 1988 Tour de France) and the first for the Garmin team (previous best 4th from Christian Vandevelde in 2008 Tour de France and Bradley Wiggins in 2009 Tour de France). It is also only the second time the pink jersey has changed hands on the final day (1984 previously when Francisco Moser overtook Laurent Fignon). Rodriguez, to his credit in defeat, finished 25th on the stage in one of the better time trial performances of his career. In all likelihood, he will enter the August Vuelta a Espana as the second favorite behind the returning from suspension Alberto Contador (team undecided, likely Saxo Bank). Further behind, Thomas De Gendt (Vaconsoleil) finished 5th on the stage and overtook Michele Scarponi (Lampre) for the 3rd spot on the final podium. This completed the final podium with no Italians on it in their home Grand Tour for the first time since 1995 and only the 4th time ever.

Who won today's stage? Still, it was a happy day for Italy. Former national time trial champion Marco Pinotti (BMC) won today's stage with a dominating performance.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) was unable to finish in the top 15, and for that matter was unable to beat Rodriguez in the time trial and therefore was unable to beat Rodriguez. This is the second Grand Tour in a row that Rodriguez has won this competition along with the Vuelta last year.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) only had to finish the time trial today to finish off his King of the Mountains classification victory. He did so and sealed the final blue jersey.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rigoberto Uran (Team Sky) lost some time to teammate Sergio Henao, but it was nowhere near enough to lose this jersey in the end.

Biggest surprise: Rodriguez was as good as he was today. Rodriguez gave it a good go today. This was a far cry from the horrible performance in the 2010 Vuelta time trial when Rodriguez lost over 5 minutes to stage winner Peter Velits and lost 3'30”-4' to all of the other GC contenders. What an improvement even if it wasn't enough to take the top prize today.

Biggest disappointment: Where was Roman Krueziger (Astana) today? While he lost a bunch of time on that one awful day earlier in the race, he was thought to be among the better time trialers among the overall contenders. Today, he didn't bother to try, finishing 85th on the stage. Part of that is there was no overall placing to protect and none to gain. He was sitting in a no man's land in the standings. Still, given that Krueziger is much better than Hesjedal in the time trial and Hesjeda finished 6th, Krueziger might could have won this stage entirely had he tried.

Other items of note: There were two other short stage races finishing around Europe today. At the Ronde van Belgie (Tour of Belgium), Tony Martin (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) recovered from his injuries suffered when he was hit by a car in training in April and won the race overall. Andre Greipel (Lotto Belisol) earlier had won the first three stages... At the Bayern Rundfahrt, Michael Rogers (Team Sky) finished off an overall victory that included two stage wins. Also notable there was Alessandro Petacchi (Lampre) winning the other three stages that Rogers didn't win.

What is coming next for the peloton? Most of the top contenders at the Giro will take some time off before returning for the Vuelta a Espana in August. Others will join the rest rest of the peloton in preparation mode. The Tour de France starts in five weeks. In that time, most of the contenders will be racing in either the Criterium du Dauphine or Tour de Suisse. In addition, many countries have their national championships between now and the Tour de France with France, Belgium, UK, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands all racing four weeks from now. The United States is racing this weekend. David Zabriskie (Garmin) won his 7th time trial championship yesterday and the national championship road race is tomorrow in Greenville, South Carolina. Blogwise, I will be updating weekly about cycling until the Tour de France begins on June 30, then it is back to daily coverage.

May 26, 2012

Giro d'Italia Power Poll – Final Stage Time Trial Preview


The Giro d'Italia is down to one day: a final day time trial to decide everything with the overall winner and the composition of the final podium still in doubt. Here is my predicted final top 10 (current position in parenthesis) along with my thoughts on the entire race for each.

1 Ryder Hesjedal (2), Garmin – Tomorrow is the biggest time trial of Hesjedal's life. He might never get another opportunity to win a Grand Tour. This is it. He is better than his rival Rodriguez in the discipline and he will need to be to make 31 seconds up over 31 km. As for the race as a whole, Hesjedal has ridden a smart race ever since the Team Time Trial put him in great position back on stage 4. His only two bobbles have been the day after his two big attacks putting him basically level with where he would have been had he not attacked. He is the big favorite to win the Giro tomorrow.

2 Joaquim Rodriguez (1), Katusha – JRod is not exaclty a specialist in the time trial. OK, he stinks. To win tomorrow he will need the time trial of his life and if he has an off day, De Gendt and Scarponi are in range of catching him. Even so, this has been a big move forward for Rodriguez after his implosions while leading in the last two Vuelta a Espana's. Speaking of the Vuelta, this year's course is heavy on mountains (quite possibly heavier than last year's Giro believe it or not) and therefore might be Rodriguez's best chance to win a Grand Tour if he loses tomorrow (that is assuming he can beat a pssobily still not on form Contador in the mountains).

3Thomas De Gendt (4), Vaconsoleil – Today was the biggest ride of De Gendt's life, racing into contention. He is likely too far back to catch Hesjedal even though he is the best time trialist among the contenders. If he recovers well and is on form, I think he has a good shot to win the stage and as long as he's not awful he should make up 27” needed to catch Scarponi. Not a bad race for a guy who was thought to maybe have a shot at a stage win in a breakaway.

4 Michele Scarponi (3), Lampre – The defending champion has not had a great race. Bad stage 1 time trial and bad team time trial really hurt and his attacks in the mountains have been largely unsuccessful. There is no way he beats Hesjedal or De Gendt in a time trial if either is even close to on form. Still, he will be no worse than fourth as there is no way anyone behind De Gendt possibly catches him with the time gaps that currently exist.

5 Ivan Basso (5), Liquigas – An ok time trialer, Basso pretty much sits in no man's land. Only Cunego is within a minute in either direction so it is difficult to see Basso gaining or losing a place in the standings. Still, this race has been a failure and marks the end of the line as a Grand Tour contender for the two-time Giro champion. In addition, Basso's tactics blew up his Liquigas team. The entire team has been burned out working for him. I suspect it might have been the same in 2010 when Basso last won the Giro except his main teammate was Vincenzo Nibali and Nibali has turned out to be pretty darn good since then (won Vuelta in 2010, 3rd in Giro last year moved up to 2nd when Contador was stripped, podium finishes in two monuments this year).

6 Rigerberto Uran (7), Team Sky – Good time trial skills should equal a chance to at least catch Cunego in the GC. I think he will do that and this race will be looked at very successfully by himself and his Team Sky managers.

7 Damiano Cunego (6), Lampre – I don't even know what to say here. Cunego is weak against the clock and is a tactical nightmare and wild card, but he gets results. Finished second today at Stelvio and is going to turn in another top 10 GT finish (to go with his fluky 2004 Giro win).

8 Sergio Henao (11), Team Sky – I have no idea how good or bad Henao is in the time trial, but he can't possibily be any worse at this level than Pozzovivo, Nieve or Gadret, his closest rivals. This was a good learning experience for Henao. I expect him to be back and contending for the podium in this race soon.

9 Mikel Nieve (9), Euskatel – Carrot Power. Nieve didn't get his stage win (though his team did get one this year) like he did last year, but this will have been a very successful race if he can stay in the top 10. With Gadret behind, it shouldn't be a problem, even if Nieve inherited his team's allergy to good time trials.

10 Dominico Pozzovivo (8), Colnago -Truly pathetic in the time trial, Pozzovivo is a climbers climber who can't even descend well. Given those limitations, it is surprising that he has done this well. I suspect he will remain in the top 10 only because 12th place Dario Cataldo (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) is too far back to catch him and 10th place John Gadret (Ag2r) is similarly awful in the time trial.

Giro D'Italia Stage 20 - De Gendt's ride for the ages caps best GT stage in years


Today's stage: Utter brutality. Mortirolo (one of the three most difficult climbs in Europe along with the Zoncolan and the Angliru) and then a summit finish atop the Passo Dello Stelvio (highest ever finish for a Grand Tour stage)

Who won today's stage? Thomas De Gendt (Vacansoleil) defied conventional wisdom and attacked on the upped slopes of the Mortirolo. The GC leaders never saw him again. At one point on the Stelvio, it looked like De Gendt had a shot at the race lead also, but he has settled into fourth place going into the time trial. The ride itself was one of the more incredible long distance attacks we have seen in recent years (rivaled only by Andy Schleck's attack on the Galibier stage in last year's Tour de France) and is now the biggest win of De Gendt's career, by far.

What matters in the GC race? A remaking and moving of the pieces entering the final stage time trial tomorrow. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) still leads the race after a late attack dropped his rivals. He finished 4th on the stage. Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) is still second, but he now trails by 31 seconds. Michele Scarponi (Lampre) is 3rd, 1'51” behind and De Gendt moved from 8th to 4th with his incredible ride, now 2'18” behind and with a chance at the podium tomorrow.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – Oh what might have been for Mark Cavendish (Team Sky). He has lost the lead to Rodriguez by one point with only the time trial left. Had Cavendish won the sprint on Thursday, he would have this jersey locked down. Instead, he needs the best time trial of his life to score points tomorrow and retake the jersey on the final day. It looks unlikely though Rodrgiuez is also unlikely to score points tomorrow (and he really doesn't care either given that he is the overall leader).
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) managed to get himself in the early breakaway and scored enough points on the early climbs to seal the final blue jersey. With Rabottini in the break, none of the other outside shots that were possibilities bothered to contest today.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Sergio Henao (Team Sky) played good teammate today. At one point, Hesjedal dropped all but a few riders. Henao had managed to stay with Hesjedal and could have continued on and possibly taken the jersey from his teammate Rigerberto Uran. Instead, Henao dropped back and helped pace Uran up the Stelvio to protect the higher overall position and leave the jersey in the hands of his teammate.

Biggest surprise: De Gendt attacked from so far away. The Mortirolo, fearsome though it is, was thought to not be decisive this year because of the 20 km flat run up to the Stelvio. Instead, it played the same role as the Passo Lavaze did yesterday. De Gendt sent a teammate up the road just a little bit and then attacked himself, like Roman Krueziger (Astana) did yesterday. Then De Gendt rode away with the race though he didn't fade as bad as Krueziger did yesterday. The tactics were solid and the ride was superb, helped a bit by. De Gendt is a most deserving winner, but the amount of his time gap was helped by...

Biggest disappointment: ...the GC staring match. In the valley between the Mortirolo and the Stelvio, the top six GC men (Rodriguez, Hesjedal, Scarponi, Basso, Uran and Pozzovivo) all stared at each other, nearly coming to a total stop as all refused to work, attempting to make Hesjedal and his Garmin team do the pacemaking. This continued all the way nearly to the top of the Stelvio. Had De Gendt not faded in the final two kilometers, he would be leading the GC right now because of this since he actually got a lead on the day of over five minutes and at one point was ahead of Hesjedal on Virtual GC (the overall standings if the stage was stopped on the spot). Then, after making Hesjedal do all the work, Scarponi and Rodriguez attacked (Basso, Pozzovivo and Uran get a pass as they were dropped by Hesjedal on the Stelvio before the attacks started). Considering De Gendt is as good a time trialer (maybe even better) as Hesjedal, Rodriguez and Scarponi stupidly nearly let another threat to the overall enter the picture. As it is, De Gendt is a threat to their podium places now.

Other items of note: Four riders including Robbie Hunter (Garmin) and stage 18 winner Andrea Guardini (Farnese Vini) were disqualified from the race today for holding onto cars... The question for Mark Cavendish now is, “Was it worth it?” We will see. Cavendish has difficulties (that's an understatement) in the mountains and suffered all week in an attempt to win the Red Jersey (and complete his collection of Grand Tour points jerseys having already won the Tour de France and Vuelta a Espana competitions). I suspect the answer won't come until the end of July. That would be the Olympic Road Race, being held on home roads in London and likely a sprint finish.

What is coming tomorrow? The final time trial for all the marbles. Hesjedal is most certainly the favorite as Rodriguez is notoriously bad in the time trial (remember that he lost four minutes in a stage 17 time trial while leading the 2010 Vuelta a Espana) while Hesjedal is good. Further down, De Gendt is excellent if Hesjedal has a bad day tomorrow and he is likely more of a threat than Scarponi is if we get further down the line. Extended preview of the time trial later today.

May 25, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 19 - All suffer as the mountains really take their toll


Today’s stage: Slow, painful, mountain craziness. A war of attrition with three category 1 climbs and a summit finish at Alpe di Pampeago.

Who won today’s stage? Roman Krueziger (Astana) attacked on the category 2 Passo Lavaze between the two passages of the Pampeago climbs and then held on for dear life as the GC contenders nearly closed him down on the final climb of the Pampeago.

What matters in the GC race? Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) finished second on the stage and closed his deficit to Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) down to 17”. Considering all of the top climbers are likely to lose time to Hesjedal in the time trial, the Canadian may have won himself the Giro today. Further down, Ivan Basso (Liquigas) burned his entire team and then burned himself up, losing 35” to Hesjedal and falling to 4th place overall, 1’45” behind Rodriguez.

What matters in other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – Mark Cavendish is still in the lead, assuming he finishes within the time cut (he is still on the course as I write). Nonetheless, unless he somehow pulls a major result in the time trial or Rodriguez explodes tomorrow, Rodriguez will win this category as the difference is only 13 points.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Stefano Pirazzi (Colnago) scored a handful of points today to close the defecit to 21 points against Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini). If Pirazzi wants to contest this, he should get himself in the break tomorrow while Rabottini can basically seal this up if he goes in the break.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Rigoberto Uran (Team Sky) finished with the top GC men and easily retained his lead over teammate Sergio Henao in this category. Only a meltdown would keep Sky from winning this category with one of the two men as only Ginaluca Brambilla (Colnago) is within 15 minutes of Uran (4’57” back).

Biggest surprise: Krueziger had legs again. After his explosion the other day losing 12 minutes, Krueziger rode like he was trying to save his career (which he very well might have been doing). It was still a shock when he was able to hold off the leaders and take the stage victory and it also saved the Giro for his team considering teammate Paulo Tiralongo lost 17 minutes today.

Biggest Disappointment: Liquigas’ tactical failure, all race long. All race long, Liquigas had set the pace even though they weren’t the leaders of the Giro. All race long, Liquigas’ domestiques burned themselves up in service of Ivan Basso. It all came to a head today. Liquigas burned everybody up way too quickly because of the tired legs. Sylvester Szymd, Liquigas super climber domestique, even blew early, unable to contribute on either pass of the Pampeago. The rest were gone by early through the second ascent. Then Basso himself, who everybody was working for, failed to even hold the wheel of Hesjedal and Scarponi first, then Rodriguez, Pozzovivo and Uran. It was a stunning failure of the entire team, one that botched this race badly in 2010 but got away with it anyway and again last season (though Nibali couldn’t have beaten Contador under any circumstance, especially on that course).

Other iteams of note: Though he had been sick, the extent of Benat Intxausti’s (Movistar) capitulation today was impressive. He had been 6th overall, but finished with the final grupetto and lost over 40 minutes today… It was a good thing the descent off the category 1 Passo Manghen was not set up to be decisive because had it been there would have been major safety issues. The road is tight, narrow and technical and riders would have been in real danger if there was any incentive to take risks on the descent… There were a few riders that abandoned today. Most notable was Androni Giacattoli leader Jose Rujano who lost a ton of time on Wednesday and was struggling again today.

What is coming tomorrow? Even more mountain pain. The names Motirolo and Stelvio are feared by every cyclist. Put them together and stage is truly a monster. Especially with the stage finish atop the Stelvio at the highest point ever for a Grand Tour stage finish, this will be difficult for everyone.

May 23, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 17 - And the race is on, finally


Today's stage: A brutal day of climbing. This is the second year in a row the Passo Giau has been in the race and the second year in a row it has destroyed the peloton despite not being a summit finish. Of course some of that is because the Passo Giau day has been, for 2 years now, the single most brutal day of Grand Tour climbing there is. This year, there were three other climbs, one of them aanother category 1 and another a category 2 that ascended for 30 km.

Who won today's stage? Overall leader Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) took a 6-man sprint over Ivan Basso (Liquigas), Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin), Michele Scarponi (Lampre), Rigoberto Uran (Team Sky) and Dominico Pozzovivo (Colnago) after the descent from the Giau climb.

What matters in the GC race? The race has now exploded. The six men who contested the final sprint now are in the top seven overall in the race with only Benat Intxausti (Movistar) also in the top seven. Rodriguez still leads Hesjedal by 30 seconds (no time bonuses today, same for Friday-Sunday) and Basso by 1'22”. The three of them and defending champion Scarponi (trails Rodriguez by 1'36”) are the only true contenders left for the overall victory because most of the others who could make up their time gaps (this applies mostly to Pozzovivo) are horrible in the time trial. Also of note in the GC was the explosion of Astana. Roman Krueziger was out the back of the front group before the Giau even started and is now 20th, 12'53” behind and Paulo Tiralongo was dropped on the Giau and fell to 8th, 4'13” behind.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) still leads and he has a chance a points again tomorrow. But his lead is only one point over Rodriguez, the most likely winner in this competition now.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Matteo Rabottini (Farnese Vini) smartly got himself in the breakaway today. He took points on the first three climbs and now has a significant advantage over everyone else.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Former leader Sergio Henao (Team Sky) cracked on the Giau along with almost everyone else who managed to even get that far. He is still second in the classification and trails his teammate Uran by 1'46”. The only other rider in any sort of shouting distance is Gianluca Brambilla (Colnago) at 3'33” behind. Everyone else is at least 13 minutes behind Uran.

Biggest surprise: Astana cracked. The entire team. Those who have been reading know I have long thought Krueziger would crack. Still, I expected Tiralongo to be able to hang around and he didn't. He didn't even finish with the second group today and now Astana has been pretty much reduced to stage hunting from here with Tiralongo 8th and Krueziger 20th. Maybe they can spring Kevin Seeldrayers for a stage win as he looked good in the breakaway today.

Biggest disappointment: Whatever happened to cause Sylvester Szmyd's (Liquigas) mechanical. Szmyd had been safely riding at the back of the lead group all day just waiting for the Giau to pace Basso up and detonate the entire peloton. Then Szmyd had a mechanical issue with his bike on the lower slopes and that was the end of him for the day. I wonder what the last group would have looked like had Szmyd been there. Most likely Uran and Scarponi's hopes for this Giro would be over considering they were dropped by Pozzovivo at the top of the Giau and chased back to the lead group.

Other items of note: The total number of withdrawn riders is 29... Given that everyone is continuing to make the time cuts, I expect the number to not grow much more with only four days left to race... One big surprise a bit further down the GC was Jose Rujano's (Androni-Giacattoli) complete implosion today. The pint sized climber was near the front and won 2 stages last years. Today, he lost over 30 minutes in a stunning implosion.

What is coming tomorrow? A sign that suffering is about to commence. 139 km straight downhill for a sprint finish. Considering Cavendish is basically the only sprinter still in the race, he is the easy choice for tomorrow. Then comes the suffering on Friday and Saturday with two most difficult stages.

May 20, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 15 - Rodriguez back in pink and Cunego is crazy


Today's stage: Another high mountain day with a summit finish. This one only finished atop a category 2 climb, not that that means anything in the Giro d'Italia.

Who won today's stage? Matteo Rabottini (Farnese-Vini) led from the breakaway from 18 km. He crash on a descent. He was caught by new overall leader Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) in the final km. And he won the stage anyway by outsprinting Rodriguez.

What matters in the GC race? Ryder Hesjedal's (Garmin) second stay in the pink jersey was short as he was dropped on the final climb by Rodriguez and now trails by 30” overall. Beyond him, nody else now sits within a minute. Ivan Basso (Liquigas) is 3rd and the Astana pair of Tiralongo and Krueziger are 4th and 5th.

What matters in the other competitions? - Note this section will be completed as best as possible but will be incomplete due to time constraints.
Red Jersey (Points) – Rodriguez scored more points to tighten his grip on second place today. Notably, Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) finished inside the time cut yesterday and then got 3rd place at the early intermediate sprint in his hunt to score enough points to win this competition.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Michel Golas (Omega Pharma QuickStep) can't climb high mountains. That doesn't matter. He still leads right now. The most likely winner right now is yesterday's stage winner Andrey Amador (Movistar) who has shown decent climbing ability and an ability to get into nearly every breakaway or major chase group to chase points.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Sergio Henao (Team Sky) put some distance between himself and teammate Rigoberto Uran. With Damiano Caruso (Liquigas) working for Ivan Basso and Peter Stetina (Garmin) working for Ryder Hesjedal, this is a teammate battle from here.

Biggest surprise: Rabottini had something left in the tank to take the sprint. When Rodriguez caught and passed Rabottini, it looked like curtains. Then Rabottini found another wind and sprinted past Rodriguez to keep his deserved stage win.

Biggest disappointment: Damiano Cunego (Lampre) was thought (or ok, he thought in his own mind) that he was an overall contender in this race. This would be fine, except his teammate Michele Scarponi is the defending champion and sits in 6th overall. Not that this matters to Cunego. He just does what he wants. If he worked for his team instead of trying crazy attacks like yesterday and today, both himself and his teammate Scarponi would be in better shape. Case in point, Scarponi attacked today. Cunego was up the road but had no energy to help. Scarponi blew by like nothing was happening and then cracked himself. Both lost time today. Had Cunego just stayed with the bunch, the 1-2 attack could have worked, but that's not possible for Cunego. In reality, it never has been. When he won the Giro, Cunego basically stole the team leadership on the road from teammate Gilberto Simoni. He has tried these things ever since, and it has never worked.

Other items of note: Robert Gesink (Rabobank) showed in the Tour of California that he is all the way back from his broken femur suffered last season. He won the Mt. Baldy queen stage and will win the Tour of California today. Giving himself tons of momentum going into the Tour de France... There were mass abandonments today in the Giro. Most notably, Frank Schleck abandoned (Shocking I know) citing should pain.

What is coming tomorrow? A much deserved rest day followed by a possible sprint stage for Cavendish (and believe me it will be Cavendish as most of the other sprinters have gone home).

May 19, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 14 - Finally mountains and Hesjedal regains the lead


Today's stage: The first summit finish of this year's race. Big mountains, welcome to the Giro, a little later than normal.

Who won today's stage? Andrey Amador (Movistar) got in his third breakaway of the race and used a daredevil descent from the first major climb and was the only man with any energy left at the end to take a 3 man sprint over Jan Barta (NetApp) and Alessandro de Marchi (Androni Giocattoli).

What matters in the GC race? Former leader Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin-Barracuda) regained the pink jersey with a well-timed attack of the GC favorites. He finished 4th on the stage and gained 26 seconds on Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) and the rest of the favorites.

What matters in the other competitions? - Today and tomorrow other obligations mean this section will be incomplete as some contenders are still on the course as I write and the results are tabulated slowly by the race organizers.
Red Jersey (Points) – Currently unknown. Other than leader Mark Cavendish (Team Sky), most of the other sprinters went home after yesterday's stage. As I right, Cavendish is still on the course and in danger of either missing the time cut or not finishing at all. No matter, Rodriguez is likely the leader here either in reality or virtually as there is no way Cavendish is going to hold him off in the mountains. More on this tomorrow.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Amador and Barta took top points today. It is unclear who holds the jersey. More on this tomorrow as well.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – Damiano Caruso (Liquigas) burned himself up working for teammate Ivan Basso. This allowed the Team Sky pair of Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao to pass him in the standings here. Uran is the leader, as he was for much of the race last year.
Team Classification – Considering there are many riders still on the course, nobody has any idea how this category looks right now though Astana and Team Sky are the best bets. More on this later.

Biggest surprise: Sandy Casar (FDJ) followed his great performance in the breakaway a couple of days ago by showing some climbing legs and finishing with the GC group. Given he has now survived a summit finish and is in 4th place, he looks like a possible top 5-top 10 finisher. He certainly won't get anymore breakaway leash.

Biggest disappointment: The politics of Astana. It had been fairly obvious for awhile now that Roman Krueziger is not going to win his coveted Giro d'Italia. He collapses in bad weather in the mountains, every year, and every year, there is at leas one rainy mountain stage. Krueziger was dropped by the GC group today on the final climb. At the same time, teammate Paulo Tiralongo has alreaady won a mountain stage in this year's race and was in front of Krueziger in the overall standings entering the day. When Hesjedal attacked, Tiralongo looked like the only guy with the legs to go with him but had to wait for Krueziger until Krueziger cracked. Now, there is a question of leadership because Krueziger is the big money guy. There shouldn't be. Tiralongo should be the leader with Krueziger in the super domestique role. Will it happen like that? I have no idea.

Other items of note: In California, we finally had a road stage where Peter Sagan (Liquigas) didn't win. Of course that is because the breakaway actually succeeded with Sylvain Georges (Ag2r-La Mondiale) taking the stage win. Of course Sagan won the sprint easily to take second.

What is coming tomorrow? More climbing. Four categorized climbs with a category 1 climb at the midway point and a summit finish atop a category 2 climb. Expect the GC men to be out in full force again, especially after climbing lots today and a rest day on Monday.

May 17, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 12 Review


Today's stage: Short, climby medium mountain stage with no big climb to force a separation as the end. In other words, breakaway territory.

Who won today's stage? Lars Bak (Lotto-Belisol) got his stage win he was searching for in his home country of Denmark by successfully attacking his breakaway companions with 1.5 km to go in the race.

What matters in the GC race? A couple of the breakaway guys were actually in range of the overall lead and remade the GC standings. Sandy Casar (FDJ) finished second on the stage and is now 3rd overall and Ivan Santaromita (BMC) was also in the break and is now 5th. None of the true contenders lost or gained any time today.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – No changes here as none of the breakaway riders that absorbed all the points are even in the top 10 in this category. Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) still leads Matt Goss (GreenEdge) with overall leader Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) and Dominico Pozzovivo (Colnago) not too far behind.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – As expected, someone in the breakaway went looking for King of the Mountain points and Michal Golas (Omega Pharma-QuickStep) got enough of them to take the lead in this category from Miguel Rubiano (Androni-Giacatolli).
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here. Damiano Caruso (Liquigas) still leads followed by Team Sky's Colombian pairing of Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao
Team Classification – Nevermind what I said yesterday about this not heating up until the high mountains. With the way this breakaway formed and the teams in it, this was remade today with Movistar leading followed by Liquigas and then BMC. Also of note is how far down Orica GreenEdge is. The Australian team is over 2 hours down is over 40 minutes down on the next weakest team. That's mostly because they brought a team of no climbers to a climbing based race.

Biggest surprise: Casar and Santaromita's presence in the breakaway. Considering how close they were to the lead, I'm surprised they got the leash they did from the peloton and that leash almost cost Rodriguez his pink jersey.

Biggest disappointment: Why did Liquigas do the chasing? Shouldn't Katusha, the team of the overall leader be the team chasing the break to keep the leader's jersey. What was Liquigas thinking doing all the work for Katusha? It makes no sense. Then again, Liquigas in this race often makes no sense. They win in spite of their bad tactics on occasion (see 2010 with weird chases and being complicit in allowing the huge breakaway to ride away with the race).

Other items of note: Over at the Tour of California, Peter Sagan (Liquigas) took stage 4 in a sprint, just like the first three stages. I would write a full post about that race if something interesting happened. Alas, it's the same every day: early climbing allows breakaway to go, followed by peloton catching somewhere along the line, the race fully coming back together and Sagan winning a bunch sprint over Heinrich Haussler (Garmin). That said, Sagan won't be winning today. It's time trial day in Californina... We lost three more Giro riders today. William Bonnet (FDJ) finally abandoned. He had been struggling with injuries since crashing in Denmark. Mads Christensen (Saxo Bank) also abandoned and Tomasz Marczynski (Vacansoleil) finished outside the time cut.

What is coming tomorrow? 122 km sprint stage. Seriously. This would qualify as a sign that pain and suffering is about to come the peloton in a very short period. A stage like this in the Giro always means summit finish in the high mountains the next day and possibly longer and that is exactly what is coming. Short sprint day tomorrow followed by two days of high mountain summit finishes.

May 15, 2012

Giro d'Italia Stage 10 - New leader


Today's stage: A stage for the explosive climbers. Sprinters need not apply despite no categorized climbs until the finish.

Who won today's stage? Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) might as well have has his name written all over this finish. As long as there was no breakaway winner, he was always the overwhelming favorite here and there was no breakaway winner. That equaled an easy looking stage victory for Rodriguez.

What matters in the GC race? Rodriguez also swiped the leader's pink jersey from Ryder Hesjedal (Garmin) by taking six seconds and a time bonus. Rodriguez now leads by 17 seconds with the Astana pair Paolo Tiralongo and Roman Krueziger 3rd and 4th. Also, onlt six riders remain within a minute of the lead though many more are still in contention.

What matters in the other competitions?
Red Jersey (Points) – This was thought to be a sprinters competition this year after years of GC men winning this along with overall contention. Then the crashes came. With only one sprint stage in the final week, it appears as though the sprinters aren't going to score enough points, especially with Rodriguez and Domenico Pozzovivo (Colnago) now in striking distance without having been in any of the high mountains. That said, Matt Goss (GreenEdge) still leads and Mark Cavendish (Team Sky) is still second.
Blue Jersey (King of the Mountains) – Miguel Rubiano (Androni Giacattoli) still leads after his presence in the breakaway on stage 6. He will likely lead until next weekend when the high mountains hit for the first time. At some point this week, I expect him to try his hand in a breakaway again for more points.
White Jersey (Best Young Rider) – No changes here. Damiano Caruso (Laquigas) still leads followed by Team Sky's Colombian pairing of Rigoberto Uran and Sergio Henao
Team Classification – The main news here is the slipping of Garmin into fourth place. Liquigas still leads Astana with Movistar 3rd. This category still has yet to really heat up though with no high mountains thus far.

Biggest surprise: Bartosz Huzarski (NetApp) took second on the stage. Huzarski is from the smallest team in the race and comes from a cycling backwater (Poland). Great ride by him today.

Biggest disappointment: Where were some of the big names? Frank Schleck (RadioShack Nissan) lost 26 seconds he couldn't afford to lose considering how bad he is at time trials. Hesjedal's Garmin teammates were also unable to stay with the pace leaving their leader isolated and alone to counter attacks on the final climb.

Other items of note: Over at the Tour of California, Peter Sagan (Liquigas) took stage 2 in a sprint, just like stage 1. With many of the big sprinters in Italy, Sagan has free reign over the field and likely will until the time trial on Thursday... Pippo Pozzato (Farnese Vini) didn't take the start today after being injured in the bunch sprint crash he caused yesterday.

What is coming tomorrow? It's another sprint stage. Therefore, we have possible carnage as there is a U-turn 400m before the finish. Given this nonsense and the course for sprinters both at the Tour de France and the Olympics this year, I would have to consider letting a breakaway go or even just going home as a sprinter given the points jersey is now an unlikely proposition. That said, I see a likely bunch sprint with a crash at the U-turn taking out a contender or two.