BCS Title Game – Alabama vs Oregon
Yes, I have finally come around on Alabama. I believed they were the best team all along (see the season long number one rankings from me) but thought they weren't invincible. Nothing has changed except that Florida is even worse than I thought and if Alabama and Florida played nine more times to make it ten, Alabama would win them all. On the other side, Oregon cleared one of its two toughest test last week against Stanford and will be favored in every game the rest of the year. Look out for the day after Thanksgiving where Alabama hosts Auburn and Oregon hosts Arizona in games that both could be battles of unbeatens (I should also mention Boise St.-Nevada is on that day as well).
Rose – Ohio St. vs Boise St.
Ohio St. won't run the table, but they will win the Big Ten again. Boise St. remains perfect and heads to the Rose Bowl. Ho hum, nothing changes here.
Sugar – Arkansas vs Nebraska
With Florida out of the mix, Arkansas moves into the vacated Alabama spot. Why Arkansas? Bowls don't like teams coming off losses. Arkansas will finish 10-2 with a win at the end over LSU and jump Auburn at either 11-1 or 10-2 because the Tigers will be coming off a loss to Alabama. The only exception to this is cold weather Midwestern teams who travel in huge numbers to get away from the cold, hence the presence of Nebraska here after losing the Big 12 Title Game to Oklahoma.
Orange – Virginia Tech vs Michigan St.
Virginia Tech is my new projected ACC Champ. I don't believe Miami quarterback Jacory Harris can stay interception free in enough big games to get Miami to the ACC Championship game and that division is the stronger division though NC State is certainly a threat despite losing to Virginia Tech last week. Michigan St. doesn't play Ohio St. and hasn't been in a BCS game since the BCS was started. The schedule works out well and while there is no way this team goes undefeated, 11-1 makes them an attractive option for the Orange Bowl.
Fiesta – Oklahoma vs West Virginia
Oklahoma wins the Big 12 and goes here as its anchor bowl. West Virginia will win the Big East and get shipped here as the last pick. Nobody wants the Big East Champ, even if it is the rabid traveling Mountaineer fans because the TV ratings will be way down. Maybe Bob Stoops can rectify his ugly loss to these guys from a few years ago.
Other serious contenders for BCS games after the jump
Pac-10
Arizona and Stanford – These two are grouped together because they are in a bad spot: Win the Pac-10 or bust. With Pac-10 anchor the Rose Bowl stuck taking a qualifying non-BCS team if they lose a title game participant and the Fiesta picking last, there is no place for these teams to go as at-larges, even at 11-1 unless there is some carnage above them to ensure a top four finish and the auto bid that comes with it. It is just another case of BCS rules put in to benefit others ultimately screwing the Pac-10, just like deserving Pac-10 teams being passed over in 1998 and 2004 to go along with USC being left out of the 2003 Title game.
SEC
Auburn – Could easily get picked over Arkansas, especially if they finish 11-1 with only a loss to Alabama. Of course, could also beat Alabama and play for the national title or lose before then, beat Alabama and head to the Sugar Bowl as the SEC Champ.
LSU – In the mix for everything, this team isn't getting through Florida, Auburn, Alabama and Arkansas without at least two losses and they could lose all four, unless Les Miles uses whatever lucky charm he has, again.
Florida – Everything is still on the table, but it depends on beating Alabama. The Gators have no route to the BCS without winning the league because the West is the stronger division and Florida played in the Sugar Bowl last season.
South Carolina – In the same position as Florida.
Big 12
Kansas St. - Bowls don't like this team, so winning the Big 12 is the only route through to a BCS game. Win tonight against Kansas St. and then we can really talk about it.
Missouri – Same as Kansas St. with the bigger games coming later. Also have issues with Oklahoma beyond just garden variety the Sooners are good issues.
Oklahoma St. - 11-1 with only a loss to a team in the title game gets the Cowboys to the Fiesta Bowl. Other than that its Conference Title or bust.
Texas – A 10-2 Texas would be highly desirable for a bowl game. I don't think there is any way they win out to reach 10-2 though.
ACC
The whole league is in win the league or bust mode. Duke, Virginia, Wake Forest, North Carolina and Boston College are likely toast. Everyone else is still involved.
Big East
Ditto ACC. Nobody is out of the race though because conference play hasn't started yet.
Big Ten
Michigan – Halfway to the 10 wins needed. Probably won't get there, but its is possible and bowl games want, in order: large horde of traveling fans, tradition laden program for TV ratings, a superstar player or two, and a team that plays a lot of shootouts for an entertaining high-scoring game. Michigan has it all as long as they get the wins.
Iowa – The uproar out of Pac-10 country will be deafening if Iowa goes and Arizona doesn't, but the Hawkeyes are much more desirable than the Wildcats at the very least for the Sugar and Orange Bowls, regardless of record.
Wisconsin – Large horde of traveling fans makes Badgers attractive to bowls, but likely won't have the wins unless they beat Ohio St. along the way.
Northwestern – Undefeated Wildcats miss both Ohio St. and Michigan meaning huge season is possible. Not an at-large contender, but the right combination of upsets could send an 11-1 Northwestern team to the Rose Bowl over 11-1 Ohio St. because of tie breaking procedures (In the event of no head to head matchup and same overall record, the Big Ten tiebreaker for automatic bid is team that has waited longer to play in Rose Bowl).
Non-BCS league teams
TCU – I don't believe they will run the table. Mortal lock for one of the games if they go 12-0.
Utah – Ditto TCU, but I believe the Utes will be the ones to conquer the Horned Frogs.
Nevada – Undefeated with a win over Boise St. could get the Wolfpack into the Fiesta Bowl, especially if TCU and Utah both lose a game.
Air Force – Ranked in the back of the top 25, any military academy that qualifies at least guarantees decent ratings and attendance. Even with a loss, this team is a sneaky contender.
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