Vuelta a Espana (aka kill the peloton with climbs) Preview

It's Vuelta time

After the highs of the Tour de France and the Olympics and a long season already, the cycling peloton (minus a few top riders that either are done for the year or with US leanings) heads to Spain for the Vuelta a Espana. Normally, the Vuelta is the red-headed stepchild of the three Grand Tours, drawing a weaker field reserved for Spaniards who aren't going to ever win the Tour de France, riders that crashed out of the Tour de France and those that targeted the Giro d'Italia and need some late season racing. This year though, a combination of factors has seemingly elevated the Vuelta above it's normal perch.

The field: Last year, JJ Cobo (now Movistar, then the now defunct Geox-TMC) shocked the cycling world, coming from nowhere to beat out of nowhere Chris Froome (Team Sky) and a recovering from crash Bradley Wiggins (Team Sky) on a course that didn't suit Wiggins nearly like the recent Tour de France course that Wiggins won on did. This year, Cobo is about the 6^th choice in the field. While part of that is Cobo (the guy has done basically nothing all season), part of that is the rest of the field. It is one of the strongest Vuelta fields I have ever seen.

Starting at the top, we have Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Tinkoff). Contador hasn't raced all season because of his suspension, but he is still the best Grand Tour rider in the peloton and is also by far the most explosive attacker in the mountains. He enters as the favorite despite little racing up to this point (he did finish 4^th overall at the recent Eneco Tour in his first race back after the suspension).

Also, Froome is back and while he was beaten by Cobo last year, that was by a combination of time bonuses and Froome waiting for Wiggins on the Angliru climb allowing Cobo to get away. Beyond that, Froome is much more of a favorite than Cobo in part because he followed up his Vuelta breakthrough last year with an equally impressive result in the Tour de France (2^nd to his teammate Wiggins). The big question about Froome is how he will recover from his Tour de France effort and the Olympic effort that followed (Froome raced for Great Britain in the road race and then won the Bronze Medal in the time trial).

Beyond the two favorites and the defending champion Cobo, the two podium finishers from the Giro are also here. Joaquim Rodriguez (Katusha) was likely salivating at the thought of this course, until Contador's suspension came down and allowed him to race here. Rodriguez does everything Contador does, just not as well. If Contador is off form, Rodriguez could find himself in a similar position to the Giro, battling for the race lead into the final days. The big difference here is that the time trial that cost Rodriguez the win at the Giro is much earlier, allowing him to retake time in the mountains that remain after that.

Giro 3^rd place Thomas de Gendt (Vacansoleil) is also here for his first meaningful riding post-Giro (he got married on the day of the first stage of the Tour de France). In his last two Grand Tours, de Gendt has been incredibly strong in the final week and especially the final days of the race (at the 2011 Tour, he was five on both the Alpe d'Huez stage and the time trial and then won the Passo del Stevio stage at the Giro and finished in the top five of the time trial there as well). If he can keep from losing time early in the race (no easy task, especially here), de Gendt could be a threat for the podium again in the final week.

Also, the crashed and wrecked contingent of the Tour de France is stronger this season than in recent years. In particular, Rabobank's Dutch pair of Robert Gesink and Bauke Mollema are both here. Gesink has long been tapped for Grand Tour success because of his incredible climbing ability (which he used to win the Tour of California on the Mount Baldy stage in May), but he generally struggles to stay on his bike, crashing with regularity. His teammate Mollema was 4^th in this race last season but was caught along with Gesink and entire Garmin team in the stage 6 crash in the Tour de France. He will be looking to rebound and save a particularly disappointing season.

The route: The other thing that has upped the Vuelta's prestige this season is the route, especially after a couple of average bordering on dull and totally uninspired routes at the Giro and the Tour. (Seriously, the Giro, while great in the final week was dull as can be for the two weeks before that and the Tour de France was suffocated by the two long time trials without enough mountains close to the finish to dent the Team Sky train).

Here, there are mountains and summit finishes pretty much everywhere. Enough that I expect everyone in the peloton to crack at least once during the race. The key thing is to manage the race, not crack on a key stage, and limit the time losses when the inevitable crack comes.

The mountains start right off the bat with summit finishes in stages 3 and 4. After that there is a mix of sprints, uphill finishes and a time trial (along with a summit finish in Andorra on stage 8). Then the race gets insane. Stages 14-16 are all summit finishes with the stage 16 finale a monstrous climb to Cuitu Negru that includes ramps up to 23% in gradient. Still, that is not the climax. The climax comes on the second to last day when the Bola del Mundo makes its return after a one year absence on a stage with three category one climbs and a category 2 climb before the peloton even reaches the foot of the fearsome Bola del Mundo. Needless to say, with 10 summit finishes in the race, this is a spectacle for the climbers (and one that likely will kill the legs of any serious contenders here before the World Championships and the Giro di Lombardia for those that will target those races).

Final pick: Contador. He will struggle early in the race, likely ceding time on stage 3 or stage 4 before getting his legs under himself and smashing the field on stage 14-16 and possibly again at Bola del Mundo.

Tour de France Team Previews – Rabobank

Team: Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Steven Kruijswijk, Luis Leon Sanchez, Laurens Ten Dam, Mark Renshaw, Maarten Tjallingii, Bram Tankink, Maarten Wynants

Team Goals: Place on final podium, win stages

Team Analysis: This is a strong team, but it likely has one too many captains. We saw last year with Bradley Wiggins' crash for Team Sky that having only one GC hope can equal a total disaster if GC is the main goal. That said, having more than two GC options can become a big problem, especially if there is no hierarchy or one does not want to ride as a domestique when called. Given that Mollema and Kruijwijk are both of basically equal level and there is no hierarchy between them, this could be a problem, especially if Gesink falters. That said, Gesink is the best hop for a high finish. He won the Tour of California and finished 4^th at the Tour de Suisse. Meanwhile, Mollema and Kruijwijk have had middling at best starts to the season. Considering that, maybe this team would have been better off splitting its GC hopes. Gesink was always going to France, but either Mollema or Kruijwijk probably should have been on the Giro-Vuelta plan, especially since Rabobank was awful at the Giro with no plan of action or results to speak of for anyone and seems to have not thought ahead to the Vuelta at all (especially with the World Championships on home soil).

After the GC, there is no hope (unless one of the GC guys wins a stage). Renshaw is still learning how to really sprint after years as a lead out man and he has no support at all. Because of the presence of 3 GC guys, there won't be any breakaway attempts from this team until all are out of the running and that isn't likely until the very end. In other words, its mountains or bust, in a year where the course suits time trial specialists more than climbers. Typical Rabobank mismanagement.

Prospects: Gesink is a real threat for a top five and a possible winner if Wiggins blows up in the mountains the final week and defending champ Cadel Evans has suddenly aged more than it seems. One of Kruijwijk and Mollema will finish in the back end of the top 10 as well while the other will become the superdomestique for this race before taking on solo team leadership for the Vuelta.

As for the rest, Renshaw will have a steady stream of 4^th and 5^th place finishes in the sprints with maybe a 2^nd. Ten Dam will be a good domestique as usual and Sanchez will be the one guy who gets some leeway to go into breaks early in the race if he chooses (remember that he won the infamous Johnny Hoogerland hit by a car stage from the break last year).

Still, this race is all about GC for Rabobank. If Gesink wins the race nothing else matters and the entire season was a success even if the team wins no more races until next year. If Gesink (or one of the others) finishes on the podium, it will validate the whole approach to the season Rabobank has taken. If not, it is time to re-evaluate and split some of this firepower up between races (much like what was done last year, top 10 for Kruijwijk in Giro, top 5 for Mollema in Vuelta, in a very successful season outside of France where Gesink crashed early and never recovered).