There is one month to go in the season. That means one month until Championship Saturday. With conference seasons in full swing and some already nearing conclusions, it's time to reassess the major BCS conferences (ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, sorry Big East, you stink and Cincinnati is going to win you for the 3rd time in 4 years) continuing today with the SEC. Previously: ACC, Pac-12
West Division (in order of current standings)
LSU (9-0, 6-0) – Les Miles now needs to keep his team focused. Despite his incredible job of outcoaching Nick Saban last week, Miles has never had a perfect season. He will need it to seal a second National Championship. Other than a possible loss of focus (and we have seen this from Miles teams, notably last season's Tennessee game and the 2007 Kentucky game), the other issue is a possible quarterback issue. Jarrett Lee looked like a deer in headlights from early on against Alabama. I even remarked on twitter that if Lee keeps ducking and throwing off his back foot he would throw a couple of picks. Exactly what he did.
Predicted Finish: 13-0, 8-0 (wins over Western Kentucly, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia in SEC Championship Game)
Alabama (8-1, 5-1) – After losing the way they did, this team is ripe to be picked off by someone, but nobody on the remaining schedule has the personnel to manage it. Mississippi St. can't score enough and Auburn won't be able to stop Alabama enough. That said, this team should enjoy New Orleans this time around, something they didn't get to do the last time (2008 loss to Utah).
Predicted Finish: 11-1, 7-1 (wins over Mississippi St., Georgia Southern and Auburn)
Arkansas (8-1, 4-1) – Somehow are 8-1 and on the fringe of the National Championship race, but really need another Alabama loss. That said, there is no way they beat LSU on the road given the way we have seen them play in road games this season (let's be nice and say it hasn't been pretty).
Predicted Finish: 10-2, 6-2 (wins over Tennessee and Mississippi St., loss to LSU)
Auburn (6-3, 4-2) – Gene Chizik has done an incredible coaching job with this team, even moreso than last year. This team has a ton of talent on it, but it is really young and there are quarterback issues. How this team has gotten to six wins with the schedule it played is beyond my comprehension. It makes no sense.
Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (win over Samford, losses to Georgia and Alabama)
Mississippi St. (5-4, 1-4) – Bulldogs looked great on offense early, but we didn't know how bad Memphis as a whole and the Auburn defense really were at that point. Then came LSU and the Tigers stuffed the Bulldogs in a burlap sack, beat them over the head with a baseball and dumped them down the river. I'm not sure if the Bulldog offense has extracted themselves from the sack yet, but they are out of the river now.
Predicted Finish: 6-6, 2-6 (win over Ole Miss, losses to Alabama and Arkansas)
Ole Miss (2-7, 0-6) – If Houston Nutt ever gets another job coaching I would be shocked. His ability to destroy every positive thing about a quarterback is nearly unprecedented. Given the talent Nutt inherited (Ed Orgeron may have been a terrible coach, but he's a great recruiter), the program should not be in this shoddy state.
Predicted Finish: 2-10, 0-8 (losses to Louisiana Tech, LSU and Mississippi St.)
East Division
Georgia (7-2, 5-1) – Cruise control through the SEC's weak underbelly continues. How on Earth did Georgia draw a West schedule without Alabama, LSU or Arkansas on it. Given that and the two losses to start the season, the jury is out on the Bulldogs. A loss to Auburn this week (likely gifting the East to South Carolina in the process) would at least give us what we want to know. Otherwise, it waits until the return trip to the Georgia Dome.
Predicted Finish: 10-3, 7-1 (wins over Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech, loss to LSU in CCG)
South Carolina (7-2, 5-2) – There have been all sorts of issues and bizareness, but the season ultimately comes down to one thing: WTF were these guys doing against Auburn and how the heck did they lose?
Predicted Finish: 8-4, 5-3 (win over Citadel, losses to Florida and Clemson)
Florida (5-4, 3-4) – Given what we have seen out of Jacoby Brisset and Jeff Driskel, next year's offense doesn't look encouraging. I hope Charlie Weis and Will Muschamp are targeting an elite quarterback. He might get the chance to play as a freshman.
Predicted Finish: 7-5, 4-4 (wins over South Carolina and Furman, loss to Florida St.)
Kentucky (4-5, 1-4) – Blowing out Ole Miss saved this season from spiraling into unmitigated disaster territory. That said, a bowl game looks increasingly unlikely given that Kentucky hasn't beaten Tennessee (even bad versions of Tennessee with decent Kentucky teams) since the mid-1980s.
Predicted Finish: 4-8, 1-7 (losses to Vanderbilt, Georgia and Tennessee)
Vanderbilt (4-5, 1-5) – Ditto Kentucky minus the unmitigated disaster part. Given a couple of years more and Vandy might be a legit 7-8 win team. And James Franklin will be a very rich man, coaching somewhere else. Possibly even at Maryland, where he was Coach in Waiting until bailing before being fired with the entire coaching staff just to start over from nothing.
Predicted Finish: 6-6, 3-5 (wins over Kentucky and Tennessee, loss to Wake Forest)
Tennessee (4-5, 0-5) – If it could go wrong in SEC play for Tennessee it will. For some reason, this team is cursed (blame Lane Kiffin if you like) and even when they do things right, it turns out wrong. Somehow though, they can still make a bowl game, even after they get steamrolled by Arkansas Saturday Night. They won't though because of the injuries.
Predicted Finish: 5-7, 1-7 (win over Kentucky, losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt)
Biggest Games Remaining (Conference Championship Game excluded)
LSU vs Arkansas (Nov. 25)
Georgia vs Auburn (Nov. 12)
Auburn vs Alabama (Nov. 26)
Georgia Tech vs Georgia (Nov. 26)
South Carolina vs Clemson (Nov. 26)
Coaches on Hotseat
Houston Nutt (Ole Miss) is gone and while he has been coaching (and will continue to coach through the end of the regular season), he has been a dead man walking for quite some time, like getting blown out by Vanderbilt.
Derek Dooley (Tennessee) – His presence on the hot seat at all at this point is appalling. Dooley inherited a smoking crater of a program with no recruits after Lane Kiffin basically torched the place on the way out of town. He deserves at least two more years as this program fell apart right before he got there. For those who want a bigger name and never accepted Dooley, you're insane. Your school hired Kiffin. Because of that stupid decision, you are stuck with what was available when Kiffin bailed. And you have to support to keep from having to way overpay for the next coach.
Joker Phillips (Kentucky) – Though in his second year like Dooley, this hot seat is more understanble. For one thing, Phillips had been an assistant and Coach-in-Waiting so there was continuity. Also, the program has slipped since he took over, especially on offense (his specialty).
Mark Richt (Georgia) – Probably safe after this seven game winning streak, but losing to both Auburn and Georgia Tech might tempt the superiors to do something rash and stupid.
League Awards (so far)
Coach of the Year – Gene Chizik (Auburn)
Player of the Year – Brad Wing (LSU)
Freshman of the Year – ???, not much in the way of impact freshmen this season in this league
Biggest Surprise – Vanderbilt looks like they could be a team to be reckoned with in the future.
Biggest Disappointment – The offenses in this league (non-Arkansas division) have regressed back to their 2005 states of ill repute.
Predicted Bowl Games for the League (remember that bowl games don't have to go in order of conference finish)
BCS National Title Game – LSU
BCS Sugar – Alabama
Capital One – Georgia
Cotton – Arkansas
Outback – South Carolina
Peach – Auburn
Gator – Florida
Music City – Vanderbilt
Liberty – Mississippi St.
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