Reassessing the Landscape - Pac-12

There is one month to go in the season. That means one month until Championship Saturday. With conference seasons in full swing and some already nearing conclusions, it's time to reassess the major BCS conferences (ACC, Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, sorry Big East, you stink and Cincinnati is going to win you for the 3^rd time in 4 years) continuing today with the Pac-12. Previously: ACC

North Division (in order of current standings)

Stanford (9-0, 7-0) – David Shaw has done a great job keeping the system going in the post-Jim Harbaugh era. It helps to have Andrew Luck, but he has done a good job keeping things rolling even in spite of injuries. For this team, the season comes down to this Saturday night against Oregon. Win and the Rose Bowl will likely be the minimum.

Predicted Finish: 12-1, 9-0 (wins over Oregon, Cal and Arizona St. in the Pac-12 Championship Game; loss to Notre Dame)

Oregon (8-1, 6-0) – This program is great, but they probably should avoid quality opponents in openers. When teams have a long period to prepare (more than a bye meaning bowl games and season openers), they can grind the offense to a halt with a good defensive line. Other than that, this offense has been its usual unstoppable self, blowing away Pac-12 defense after Pac-12 defense. Of course that means I am likely to pick against Oregon in the bowl game wherever they play if the opponent has any sort of defense. Until Oregon can figure that problem out, there is a ceiling on how high they can rise.

Predicted Finish: 10-2, 8-1 (wins over USC and Oregon St., loss to Stanford))

Washington (6-3, 4-2) – The one big positive surprise in a league filled with disappointing teams is this one. Steve Sarkisian has done an incredible job of getting Keith Price ready to play this season after he looked overwhelmed in his only action last season (at Oregon when Jake Locker was injured). Considering Locker was a first-round pick, I'm shocked that Price has been better than him in pretty much every way. Now that Sarkisian has his offense in place, he can work on the still woeful defense, especially against the run (as Stanford and Nebraska so ably exploited).

Predicted Finish: 7-5, 5-4 (win over Washington St., losses to USC and Oregon St.)

Cal (5-4, 2-4) – We basically have the same Cal team that we have had every year since the 2007 collapse. Spotty quarterback play means the playmakers can't get the ball when and where needed and the defense is good at home and bad on the road. The combination makes for a team near .500 and not a team like the 2004-early 2007 juggernauts that this program produced. That said, Jeff Tedford deserves every opportunity to turn it around again as this program was at the Indiana/Kansas level of bad and on probation when Tedford got there.

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 3-6 (win over Oregon St., losses to Stanford and Arizona St.)

Oregon St. (2-7, 2-4) – This season crashed and burned from the start. Losing to middling FCS opponents generally can't be recovered from, especially when the next week is a trip to Wisconsin (that started with a negative yardage punt). At this point, the season high is sending Arizona coach Mike Stoops to the unemployment line. When that is the only thing of note and Oregon remains on the schedule to blow you up again, it's been a bad year.

Predicted Finish: 3-9, 3-6 (win over Washington, losses to Cal and Oregon)

Washington St. (3-6, 1-5) – The Cougars have shown marked improvement, but they're still awful. The reason they have been so competitive in most games other than their own improvement is the cliff that much of the rest of the league seemed to drive off of after last season.

Predicted Finish: 3-9, 1-8 (losses to Arizona St., Utah and Washington)

South Division

UCLA (5-4, 4-2) – This team is an argument for what must be done eventually should be done immediately. If the powers that be believed Rick Neuheisel needed to go, they should have fired him right after that embarrassing loss to Arizona. Now, there is a chance Neuheisel will win his way into another year on the job, much to the consternation of many fans in Westwood. On the positive side, Neuheisel has a healthy, established quarterback for the first time in his tenure and it is doing wonders for the offense that suddenly looks like it can move the ball (much as it did early last season before the Pac-12 figured out the Bruins couldn't throw).

Predicted Finish: 6-6, 5-4 (win over Colorado, losses to Utah and USC)

Arizona St. (6-3, 4-2) – What a blow it. Losing to UCLA last week was inexcusable and all the good will obtained by Dennis Erickson and his staff by beating USC and Missouri early on has been squandered. I know this team has suffered more injuries than most, but most of the key players, especially on offense are still around. Given what we know now, there have been two unforgivable losses for this team (Illinois and UCLA), just like every year.

Predicted Finish: 8-5, 6-3 (wins over Washington St. and Cal, losses to Arizona and Stanford in Pac-12 Championship Game)

USC (7-2, 4-2) – It's been a good season at USC and if everyone comes back, there is a chance for one last hurrah before the scholarship losses really kick in a couple of years from now. There are still some troublesome things, but Lane Kiffin has certainly exceeded expectations this season. That said, Monte Kiffin and his defense are still not good, no matter what the Los Angeles media seems to think.

Predicted Finish: 9-3, 6-3 (wins over Washington and UCLA, loss to Oregon)

Utah (5-4, 2-4) – Before anyone brings it up, this is not a team that can't compete in a BCS conference. It is a team that is rebuilding and doesn't reload like a powerhouse. No shame there other than having the rebuilding year coincide with the first year in a new conference. Now that the schedule has eased up, the Utes have looked better and could help determine the division winner even though they won't be winning it themselves.

Predicted Finish: 8-4, 5-4 (wins over UCLA, Washington St. and Colorado)

Arizona (2-7, 1-6) – This was also a schedule induced nightmare, much like Utah. Last season started 7-1 and finished with Stanford, Oregon, USC, Arizona St. and Oklahoma St. in the bowl game. Other than Arizona St., the Wildcats weren't favorites against any of those teams and would not at any point have been favorites against any of those teams. This season, after the obligatory FCS sacrifice, the Wildcats played Oklahoma St., Stanford, Oregon and USC. Look familiar? That would explain the awful start, no matter what anyone thinks of the job Mike Stoops did or didn't do.

Predicted Finish: 5-7, 3-6 (wins over Colorado, Arizona St. and Louisiana-Lafayette)

Colorado (1-9, 0-6) – Obviously nobody knew quite the extent of the issues that infested Colorado under Dan Hawkins. No matter the coach, this team is facing a long rebuilding process as the talent level is abominable. At this point, Colorado would be a midpack team in the Mountain West or the WAC, making them a doormat here.

Predicted Finish: 1-12, 0-9 (losses to Arizona, UCLA and Utah)

Biggest Games Remaining (Conference Championship Game excluded)

Stanford vs Oregon (Nov. 12)

Stanford vs Notre Dame (Nov. 26)
Oregon vs USC (Nov. 19)
USC vs UCLA (Nov. 26)
Utah vs UCLA (Nov. 12)

Coaches on Hotseat

Mike Stoops (Arizona) is already gone.

Rich Neuheisel (UCLA) – Yes, he's still on the hotseat, big win over Arizona St. notwithstanding. Realistically, he needs to either beat USC or win the conference title game. Considering UCLA isn't likely to be in the Championship Game without beating USC, Neuheisel better figure out a way to make it happen.

Paul Wulff (Washington St.) - His team has improved, but he has a new athletic director. When the career record includes seven wins in four years, the new athletic director is generally going to bring his own man in.

Jeff Tedford (Cal) – I don't think he will be canned this season, especially considering the homefield is undergoing renovations and Cal is playing in a baseball stadium across the San Francisco Bay, but if Cal loses out to fall to 5-7 and out of a bowl game while getting destroyed by Stanford, its' possible.

Mike Riley (Oregon St.) - Another that I think is safe, but you never know if they get blown out in the rivalry game on the heels of two straight failed seasons. Given his work in elevating the program out of the coach killing spiral of death that it was, I expect the old guard boosters to ensure he stays though.

Dennis Erickson (Arizona St.) - His teams are undisciplined, he is old and the team has underachieved every season since his first one. He needs to recover and win the division or he's likely gone, especially considering his contract is up at the end of the year and he can be fired buyout free at that point.

League Awards (so far)

Coach of the Year – Steve Sarkisian (Washington)

Player of the Year – Andrew Luck (Stanford)

Freshman of the Year – De'Anthony Thomas (Oregon)

Biggest Surprise – Washington's improvement post-Locker

Biggest Disappointment – Oregon St.'s total collapse

Predicted Bowl Games for the League (remember that bowl games don't have to go in order of conference finish)

BCS Rose – Stanford

Alamo – Oregon

Holiday – Arizona St.

Sun – Washington

Las Vegas – UCLA

Kraft Fight Hunger – Cal

New Mexico – Utah