Nov 10, 2011

Week 11 College Football Picks

Results thus far
Last Week: SU 6-4, ATS 6-3-1
Season to date: SU 60-40, ATS 50-47-3

Game of the Week – Stanford (-3.5) vs Oregon (Pac-12 North Championship)
The whole season for Stanford has been built around this game after losing only this game last season. It is a lot of pressure, but it is at home, something last season's game was not. Because of the home field, because of the extra motivation, because of everything on the line and because the Oregon offense hasn't been tested away from home since being stomped by LSU, Stanford will win the game, even if Oregon shows up healthy (a big questionmark at this point).
Stanford 42, Oregon 34

Georgia Tech vs Virginia Tech (-1)
Over the last few seasons, there have been only two ways to stop the triple option. Number one is for Georgia Tech to stop the option themselves (a feat they easily managed against Miami).Number two is to have a good defense with a bye week to prepare (the debacle at Virginia). Considering Georgia Tech can perform number one almost any given week and number two is also in effect and Virginia Tech has a good offense of their own, it is easy to see why I am leaning the way I am.
Virginia Tech 30, Georgia Tech 20

Penn St. vs Nebraska (-3.5)
Good luck predicting this. Given everything that has transpired at Penn St. this week, I don't think any result would be surprising (other than Penn St. scoring 50 because no amount of extra effort and even execution is going to get this offense that high against any competent defense). That said, I think there is a big advantage for Penn St. here. That is the bye week. Despite all the issues, Paterno was there to help prep the team before the scandal and the current staff has been doing most of the work anyway, so I think Penn St. will be prepared and ready to play. I also think, on senior day, the effort will be there (I think a crash will be coming after this though) and the Nebraska defense has been average right along with the offense this season. The game will be ugly, just like most this season and Penn St. will win, just like most this season. At least, for a day, normalcy will reign.
Penn St. 17, Nebraska 10

Georgia (-13) vs Auburn
Those who read the SEC Reassessment post yesterday already know I am picking Georgia. This is why: First, Auburn is way overrated and has overachieved greatly to get to six wins by this point. On a down by down basis, they were beaten by Utah St. and Mississippi St. and probably should have lost the South Carolina game as well. At the same time, the Georgia defense has revived after a few years in the toilet. Yes, the opposition as been bad, but I think Auburn's offense this season is closer to that opposition than it was the last few seasons. The Georgia defense is going to kill it and the offense will move easily against the suspect Auburn defense.
Georgia 34, Auburn 20

Boise St. (-15.5) vs TCU
TCU's defense flat out isn't up to its normal standards. Considering its normal standards would have a difficult time winning here, I can't imagine a scenario where TCU wins without that defense suddenly finding its 2008-10 form. Kellen Moore, you're field day awaits.
Boise St. 38, TCU 17

Kansas St. vs Texas A&M (-4.5)
Who will respond better to its recent foibles. Kansas St. coming off of getting torched the last two weeks or Texas A&M and its continued forgetfulness that the 2nd half (and in particular the 3rd quarter) must be played, not ignored to win. Given what we know, I expect A&M to be the winner here. Reason: They can throw. Teams that can throw can obliterate the Kansas St. defense and there are now two weeks of tape showing how badly the K-St. Defense can be burned. I expect Texas A&M to take advantage.
Texas A&M 45, Kansas St. 31

USC (-12.5)vs Washington
Washington isn't ready on defense to win this type of game yet. Before you mention the Huskies have won this game the last two years, remember that USC those years wasn't as good as this season. Matt Barkley is going to have field day against a Washington defense that is going to have to sell out to stop the run.
USC 37, Washington 28

Florida St. (-9) vs Miami
Miami has ACC schizophrenia. They also have a good offense and a bad defense. Florida St. is much the same, but with better overall talent and they seem to be gaining some consistency.
Florida St. 34, Miami 30

Cincinnati (-3.5) vs West Virginia
The Mountaineer defense has collapsed. No question. Against Zach Collaros and the Cincinnati offense, that is the worst thing in the world. Knowing that the only way I can pick West Virginia is in a shootout, I can't do it. Cincinnati has more ways to win and could beat West Virginia is said shootout.
Cincinnati 41, West Virginia 31

Iowa vs Michigan St. (-2.5)
Top 7 teams in the Big Ten (Michigan St., Michigan, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Penn St., Iowa) have not beaten another team in that group in a road game. That will be continuing here, much though I loathe picking a team that lost to Minnesota. Of course that same miserable Minnesota team nearly won in East Lansing last week so maybe I shouldn't feel so bad.
Iowa 24, Michigan St. 23

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