Strikeforce: Fedor vs Henderson Review

Fight of the Night: Henderson vs Fedor. There is no question here. All one round of that fight was great. Now normally there might be some trepidation at putting a one round fight as fight of the night, but not tonight. The rest of the card was pathetic. Even the recap was exceptionally boring. As for the fight itself, both Fedor and Henderson rocked each other. Neither had ever been knocked out, but Fedor's chin surprisingly gave way first before the 40 year old Henderson's.

KO of the Night: There was only one tonight and Henderson's KO of Fedor was the one. It was a spectacular one hitting Fedor flush with a shot going under the arm from the side after a scramble. Not many Ko's will ever be seen like that.

Submission of the Night: Miesha Tate submits Marloes Coenen with an arm-triangle. I have to say this was surprising. Coenen, while having no takedown defense is a very good submission artist with strong defense. Her getting submitted by a simple arm-triangle, even against an accomplished grappler like Tate, is shocking.

Worst of the Night: Everything else. Where do I start? Let's just do this in list form. It will be easier to follow.

Scott Smith is a shot fighter. At 32 years old. His movement looked like he was 52 and he did nothing in the fight until his opponent went to the Kalib Starnes running man defense the last 30 seconds.

Tarec Saffedine has no power whatsoever. Anyone with any power at all would have knocked out Smith tonight. Considering he is, by his original trade, a kickboxer, Saffedine is never going to finish anyone. On top of that, he ran scared to secure his decision victory for the last minute.

Tyron Woodley is someone who I have no interest in ever watching fight again. His performance, while effective, was a pathetic display of everything wrong with the rules that currently favor wrestlers by prioritizing positional control. Woodley went for takedowns, threw strikes only from safe positions, and held Daley down. He even won the first round without completing a takedown after holding Daley against the cage because he nullified Daley's offense (I would argue it might should have been a 10-10 round). This was just miserable.

As for Daley, he looked like he forgot you need to throw punches to win until it was far too late. Even from the bottom when he was there, Daley did nothing. He threw no strikes and made no attempts at anything until late in the 3^rd round other than trying to stay on his feet. Too bad too as Henderson showed what can happen if someone with power connects, even from an awkward striking position.

Afterward, Woodley bored us once again in his interview. We did get some unintentional entertainment from his mother screaming at cageside about thanking God for the decision victory. It was amusing and totally out of place. It also showed all the ways people don't like having faith shoved down their throats and brought up in certain situations. Even as a Christian myself, I though her screaming about it was over the top, especially since she could be heard in the cage during her son's interview.

Next up, we had Robbie Lawler fighting with no urgency against Tim Kennedy. Of course, we already knew that would happen given that Lawler fell asleep during the press conference to hype the fight on Thursday.

As for Kennedy, he fought well, then gave an uncomforatable interview about how bleeding and cuts don't matter and then playing to his military rooots to get a big pop from the crowd, pro wrestling style. Ugh.

In the midst of all of this, the announcing crew of Gus Johnson, Mauro Ranallo and Frank Shamrock was worse than they have ever been. Maybe this was because I was paying attention more to them with the cards, but they were miserable tonight. Shamrock, not every round is close. Gus, you don't have to get excited like the end of an NCAA Tournament game for simple grappling positions in undercard fights. Mauro, normally I would be annoyed with your bad puns and catchphrases, but tonight it wasn't so bad. The catchphrases gave us on twitter much to laugh about, the only good thing we had during the first three fights on this card.

Final thoughts: The Tate-Coenen title fight was decent and the main event was stellar. That said, it still doesn't wash the taste of the first three fights out of my mouth. I honestly have no interest in seeing any of the first three winners fight ever again. That is a problem for Strikeforce going forward because I know I'm not the only one and these guys are the likely contenders for Strikeforce belts in the future.

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UFC 129 Quick Thoughts

Georges St. Pierre's legacy is being affected by his fear of losing – St. Pierre regularly talks about his place in MMA history. At this point, he is looking like one who will go down as a respected, dominant champion that is not loved. The most loved fighters are the ones who finish fights and leave everything in the cage or ring. How often can that be said of St. Pierre? Even with the eye injury he suffered, St. Pierre should have done more to try to finish the fight. Of course this is the fifth fight in a row we can say that about.

Jake Shields needs to go train elsewhere for a little while – Cesar Gracie's camp has been great for Shields and his teammates the Diaz brothers and Gilbert Melendez, but Shields lacks the stand-up talent his teammates have. He should go to the Netherlands and train for a good six months in Dutch-style kickboxing with the likes of Ernesto Hoost and Alistair Overeerm. It may not make him a good striker (he lacks the talent for that), but it was help him be able to use his striking to get fights against superior strikers with good takedown defense to the ground like Jon Fitch does.

Mark Hominick will get another title shot at some point, and it will end the same way this did – Hominick earned a lots of respect from fight fans for continuing to fight with that hematoma on his head and then dominating round 5. That said, he only dominated against Aldo because Aldo was gassed. Hominick is good enough to earn a rematch after a few fights, but I don't think he has anything for the champ no matter what he does.

Jose Aldo is better than we all thought – I know that sounds weird after a fight where he was dominated in the final round, but Aldo was sick, reportedly had a difficult weight cut and, despite being the champion, was fighting in his UFC debut. He still may have some weaknesses against wrestlers, but nobody else at featherweight has any chance against him when he's right.

Lyoto Machida is not back yet – Yes, his footwork issues from the Rampage Jackson fight were corrected and he looked much more like the Machida that knocked out Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans to win the light heavyweight title than the tentative fighter that struggled in two fights with Shogun Rua. That said, Randy Couture lacked the athletic ability and quickness at his age to keep up. After the first round, I asked my friends who I was watching the fight with if the knockout was going to be one where Couture got clipped or was is going to be spectacular. We got our answer with an incredible knockout, but no answers about Machida because of Couture's obvious age-related athletic disadvantages.

It was a great career for Couture – There is no shame in getting beat like that. In fact, going back to the tradition of Japanese MMA, it was an honorable way to go out, getting knocked out by a younger and obviously superior fighter. Over his career, Randy accomplished lots and he truly deserves his place among the all-time greats despite his fairly pedestrian 19-11 record.

Trying to submit Ben Henderson is foolhardy – In my preview, I wrote that Henderson would win because Mark Bocek would try to submit him and fail, ultimately getting blasted by punches in the process. That is exactly how is happened. Henderson looked to be in danger of being submitted quite a few times during the fight and every time he calmly waited for an opportunity to escape, did so and then pounded Bocek immediately after the escape. One take away from this fight is that some submission attempts leave you vulnerable if the fighter escapes.

Bocek will be fine in the lightweight division – He a solid fighter that will continue to grow as a fighter and show he deserves his place on the roster. He might never be a title contender, but his solid jiu-jitsu will stop many in the coming months and years. This was just an awful matchup against a fighter that seemingly can't be submitted and has a pretty good stand up game.

Rory MacDonald is potential champion in the future – Only 21 years old, MacDonald looked incredible against Nate Diaz. In fact, his spectacular suplexes reminded me of watching Jon Jones fight Stephen Bonnar on the UFC 94 undercard. It will take MacDonald a bit longer than Jones did and he is no sure thing, especially with St. Pierre ruling the top of his division, but MacDonald is one to watch out for.

Nate Diaz should go back to lightweight – He doesn't have as large a frame as his brother Nick does and Nate can get thrown around against bigger, stronger welterweights. Combine that with a lack of takedown defense (or overconfidence in his game from the back if you choose) and it is a recipe for disaster at welterweight.

Jake Ellenberger is developing nicely – Maybe he should get that rumored fight with Jon Fitch as some point that never happened. Ellenberger seems like he would have as good a chance as anyone else at beating Fitch right now. That was a nice knockout or Sean Pierson.

Ivan Menjivar is a possible future bantamweight contender – I know that sounds insane considering he lost to Brad Pickett not long ago, but that was as much a function of getting acclimated to cutting to 135 pounds as anything else. It's amazing to think his first career loss was at welterweight to St. Pierre in St. Pierre's first fight. Also, his contendership is directly tied to his ability to finish opponents. He has finished 17 of his 22 wins and we all know Dana White loves fighters who finish, especially at the lighter weights where the lack of size makes KOs harder to come by.

Pablo Garza and his coaches are great planners – That is the only way to explain planning a flying triangle and then hitting it to finish a fight. Just a great job of breaking down an opponent and finding a weakness.

John Makdessi picked the wrong card to have a spectacular knockout – Makdessi dominated Kyle Watson and then setup and executed a beautiful spinning back fist knockout in the third round. On most other cards, this would have easily been knockout of the night, but not here with Machida's crane kick KO of Couture.

Next up for each fighter

St. Pierre should fight Nick Diaz. There are no other fights left for him a welterweight right now. With that fight happening, the UFC can figure out what to do with Carlos Condit, BJ Penn and Jon Fitch at the top of the division. As this point, Condit should probably fight the winner of Penn/Fitch 2 whenever it happens for the title shot after Diaz if he beats Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 132

Jake Shields should get one of the up and comers from the undercard. A fight against Ellenberger makes a lot of sense right now. Either that of the winner of Thiago Alves/Rick Story fight next month.

Jose Aldo seems to be being pushed into a quick title defense this August against Chad Mendes. Should be good.

Mark Hominick will get some time off and then I expect him in the Co-Main Event of a UFC Fight Night type card in Canada in the fall.

Lyoto Machida is in flux right now. He has fought most of the division's top fighters except Forrest Griffin. If Griffin beat Shogun Rua again this summer that should be the fight. Otherwise, I have no idea. Maybe Ryan Bader to see how he would do against a top wrestler as Evans looked to strike with Machida and paid for it.

Ben Henderson should keep moving up the card. At this point, the question is how high. The easiest thing would be if Anthony Pettis beat Clay Guida next month, then Henderson should fight Guida next.

Rory MacDonald has shown he's ready for a bigger test at welterweight. Give him the loser of Alves/Story or Kim assuming he loses to Condit.

UFC 129 Preview

UFC 129 airs this Saturday with the main card airing on Pay Per View at 8 CT/6PT (an hour earlier than normal), preliminary fights airing on Spike TV an hour before that and five more fights airing before that on Facebook.

Main Event: UFC Welterweight Title, Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields

Shields is legitimately the biggest test St. Pierre has faced since regaining his championship from Matt Serra at UFC 83. He is a big welterweight (big enough to have fought successfully at middleweight off and on for quite some time including wins over Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Dan Henderson and UFC Middleweight top contender Yushin Okami) with rudimentary striking but an impressive and aggressive ground game that grinds out decisions Jon Fitch style or submits opponents from top position depending on the opposition. With a win streak that dates back to 2005, Shields is a formidable threat on the ground.

Opposing Shields is St. Pierre, the most dominant force in the UFC today. Since losing to Matt Serra, St. Pierre has relied on his wrestling to overwhelm and dominate opponents defeating wrestler after wrestler with their own style while also running over striking based challengers. Nobody has been close to him at any point since he regained the title.

As for the fight, I expect this to be different from many of St. Pierre's recent wins. First, I believe Shields is St. Pierre's equal in the ground game. Hopefully, Georges hasn't forgotten how to strike. He is going to have a big advantage in that area and I expect he will keep it standing. The other difference is that Shields will get it to the ground and take a round of St. Pierre for the first time since the first Josh Koscheck fight way back at UFC 74. It won't help him win, but Shields will gain respect enough that once he wins a few fights in a row, he won't be perpetually stuck in Jon Fitch land never receiving another title opportunity.

St. Pierre by decision – Shields chin is impeccable and will keep him from being knocked out, but St. Pierre will win this on the feet.

Co-Main Event: UFC Featherweight Title, Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick

Many have been saying Hominick has a chance in this fight recently. I don't buy it. While he has good technical striking, Aldo is on another level. That and Hominick is not a new import to this division like future contenders will be. I expect the aura of invincibility that Aldo has around him from his WEC days to be shattered fairly soon, but it won't come here against the average Hominick. I expect him to be a nice gatekeeper in this division, but nothing more. Closest profile, title challengers Joe Stevenson and Gabriel Gonzaga who were never great but earned title shots in weak divisions before being dispatched at the competition got better.

Aldo by TKO, round 3

Main Card: Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida

Couture is being booked in the Japanese style of retirement fight here. In Japan, when fighters are retiring, they usually go out on the wrong end of an ugly beating intentionally set forth for them by the promotion. That will be the case here. I see no way for Couture to win other than the pin him to the cage strategy he used to beat Brandon Vera. I expect that Machida has studied and knows this and will have his footwork issues from the Rampage Jackson fight corrected to keep it from happening. With that problem out of the way, Couture's weakening chin comes into play. Machida will find it at some point and it will be lights out, just as it was against Lesnar and Liddell.

Machida by KO, round 2

Vladimir Matyushenko vs Jason Brilz

Brilz seems like a poor man's Matyushenko. That is generally not a good thing. The 'Janitor' takes it unless age quickly and unexpectedly becomes a factor.

Matyushenko by decision

Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson

When we last saw Henderson, he was on the wrong end of Anthony Pettis' incredible 'Showtime Kick' to finish out the WEC. What we know from that and previous fights is that he is nearly impossible to finish (between surviving that kick even though it cost him the decision and all of Donald Cerrone's submissions back in 2009, Henderson seems impervious to pain) and he can submit opponents if an opening is left for him. On the other side, Bocek is a submission wizard with some flaws in his striking game. I think that spells trouble here. Henderson isn't getting submitted and while he lack power in his strikes, I think he pitter patters his way to a decision victory.

Henderson by decision

Spike TV Undercard

Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald – Diaz is the better fighter and as long as he doesn't try anything stupid (you never know with a Diaz), he should win. Diaz by decision

Sean Pierson vs Jake Ellenberger – Ellenberger is a monster. He is going to tear Pierson up on the ground on the way to a dominate wrestling decision win. Ellenberg by decision.

Facebook Undercard

Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts – Roberts by decision

Ivan Menjivar vs Charlie Valencia – Menjivar by decision

Jason MacDonald vs Ryan Jensen – MacDonald by TKO

John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson – Makdessi by decision

Yves Jabouin vs Pablo Garza – Garza by TKO

Strikeforce: Diaz vs Daley Thoughts

The Strikeforce welterweight and lightweight divisions should be folded into the UFC, much like the the WEC's divisions above lightweight were folded into the UFC before the eventual absorption of the entire promotion. The reason for this is that the champions have cleaned out their divisions.

Gilbert Melendez has taken two of three from Josh Thomson and beaten Kawajiri and Aoki. Other than a possible fight with K.J. Noons that really is below his level despite its potential for entertainment, there is nothing left for Melendez. As for the other guys, Aoki's contract is up meaning he can be signed to the UFC right now and Kawajiri and Thomson are obviously on the downsides of their careers now. In addition, Lyle Beerbohm was the one prospect that Strikeforce had in this division and he has lost two straight now in short order.

As for Diaz' welterweight division, there is nobody left other than prospects. While the Daley fight was good, the previous two fights were against Cyborg Santos (the male version, just as mean, not as good as the female one) and Noons, a blown up lightweight who is returning to lightweight in his next fight. The only thing left for him is to go back to the UFC and get back to business in the Octagon. It has been awhile and Diaz has improved a ton since leaving the UFC a few years ago and he is still young (only 27, somehow). Also, he would be a fresh face for Georges St. Pierre (assuming St. Pierre beats Diaz teammate Jake Shields) to take on, something the UFC is always looking for in their eternal quest to avoid giving Jon Fitch another title shot.

The Jardine-Mousasi decision was a travesty in the highest order, but the result might be the fight we really want to see. With the draw, Mousasi likely can't be pushed into a title shot with Dan Henderson now. Instead, he needs another win (maybe in a rematch with Jardine, or maybe over former champ Rafael Cavalcante). The door has been opened for Henderson to fight Fedor Emelianenko, possibly at light heavyweight and the fight needs to happen. Neither has anything on the horizon with Fedor out of the Heavyweight GP and Henderson having no title challenger and Strikeforce likely headed towards pay per view, this fight is one of the few they have that has the potential to sell well.

Lyle Beerbohm will never be more than a journeyman. Beerbohm hasn't developed any sort of striking game at all in his young career. Without it, he's got a problem. Nobody wants to go to the ground against Aoki. It's totally foolhardy and yet, that where Beerbohm took the fight because he had no other options.

Paul Daley might want to forget about MMA and move to Kickboxing. The It's Showtime promotion in Europe likely offers bigger paydays than he will be getting going forward in MMA with no major organizations outside of the Zuffa umbrella and no reason for Dana White to keep him around at this point. Daley desperately needed to win and hold the Strikeforce belt. In addition he needed to hold it and defend it for long enough that the fans overruled Dana White's wishes and demanded he be brought back to the Octagon. He didn't and while he may get one more Strikeforce fight (Business as usual right), time is running out.

Can we please re-organize the Showtime announcing team. I actually kind of like Frank Shamrock despite all his flaws as an analyst. He really needs another strong analyst, maybe a trainer to join him in the booth (Miletich who is already on the payroll there?). That analyst is most certainly not Mauro Ranallo. Mauro is a good announcer and passionate fan of the sport, but an analyst he is not. He has been an adequate play-by-play man over the years as well. Simply put, move Mauro over to play-by-play full time and get rid of Gus Johnson and we are on to something. As for Gus, I like him, but this sport isn't his thing in the same was Al Michaels wasn't well suited to the NBA during his tenure as the top announcer there. Go back to college basketball and the NFL where you belong Gus.

Fighting Fridays – Strikeforce: Diaz vs Daley Preview and Predictions

Main Event: Strikeforce Welterweight Title, Nick Diaz (c) vs Paul Daley

With the purchase of Strikeforce by UFC parent company Zuffa, this bout both takes on added significance and loses some luster at the same time. What is lost is championship relevance. With Strikeforce under Zuffa control, this championship is just another lower league title right now. At the same time, it is a chance to impress the new bosses and get in position for a shot at UFC gold somewhere down the line (at least for Diaz, Daley has other issues).

As for the fight itself, Diaz has a huge advantage on the ground and has a small advantage striking, but not in the power department. I expect this fight to go a lot like the fight with Evangelista Cyborg Santos did in January, but without the foolish takedown setting the submission up. On the other side, Daley has one-punch knockout power, but at we saw in the Josh Koscheck fight last year, it can be nullified by a strong wrestler. Diaz is not a strong wrestler despite his good jiu-jitsu game.

Ultimately, Diaz is going to wear Daley out. Diaz has shown an incredible chin in his career and this will be no exception. Daley might even win a round or two early, but Diaz and his relentless volume striking will eventually carry the day.

Diaz by decision.

Strikeforce Lightweight Title, Gilbert Melendez (c) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri

Melendez gets a chance to continue his run through the non-UFC lightweight division with a rematch against Kawajiri who he beat in PRIDE in a classic match back in 2006. Since then, Melendez has just gotten better while Kawajiri has slipped a little getting knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and facing less than stellar competition.

In this fight, Kawajiri will also have to deal with the issues his countryman Shinya Aoki dealt with last year: the Unified Rules and the cage. Kawajiri has done very well over his career cutting the ring off and cornering opponents into the clinch where he can then work a very American style game of takedowns, top control and ground and pound. He is certainly better suited to the cage than Aoki, but he may find the tool shed empty in his attack without some of the knees and kicks to downed opponents that have been available to him. At the same time, Kawajiri will have to deal with elbows to the head while on the ground for the first time (and also the first time in Strikeforce). With all those changes and both fighters being four year older since the first bout, I don't see too many ways to victory for Kawajiri.

Melendez by decision

Gegard Mousasi vs Keith Jardine

A short notice fight after Mike Kyle was injured, Jardine will come to fight with his trademark awkward striking and ability to brawl. That said, he has no chance of winning this fight that way. Jardine only has one path to victory and that is a top control decision. The reason of course is that Mousasi possesses K-1 level striking and Jardine's chin remains an enigma easily solvable by left-look at this point in his career. Mousasi will find that KO button if Jardine keeps this standing.

Mousasi by KO, round 3

Shinya Aoki vs Lyle Beerbohm

First things first. If bright colors scare you and ridiculous patterns from the early 90s frighten you, wait for awhile to tune in because this fight will scar your eyes between whatever crazy bright Japanese pants Aoki wears and Beerbohm and his 'fancy pants'. That said, this fight looks sadly one-sided. Beerbohm doesn't have the striking to win without going to the ground. Going to the ground is just about the worst thing anyone can do with Aoki. Hopefully Fancy Pants gets out with all of his limbs still in one piece.

Aoki by submission, round 2

Five thoughts from UFC 128

It will take an epic effort to beat Jon Jones anytime soon – There are just no light-heavyweights that have the physical tools that Jon Jones has. The massive reach advantage and overall physical gifts can't be matched within the division (or possibly in the next one up either). The only ones with the type of skill set even seemingly capable of challenging Jones are a way off from contention. Only Anderson Silva and his Matrix level striking that he wants to keep in the middleweight division, Phil Davis with athleticism but no reach and Lyoto Machida who, as an elusive counter punching backpeddler has befuddled pretty everyone other than Shogun Rua, even seem to have a skill set that can trouble Jones. Considering that Silva is a middleweight and Davis and Machida are a long ways off from title shots at this point, the Jones era very well might be here.

Urijah Faber and Dominick Cruz should be coaching on The Ultimate Fighter – There is no better way to introduce the bantamweight division to the UFC than with an Ultimate Fighter coaching gig. With the existing rivalry that these two already have (Faber successfully defended his featherweight title when both fought at that weight in the WEC and handed Cruz his only career loss), there will be plenty of coaches drama and competitiveness on display. Also, Faber's assistants are likely to be his teammates from Team Alpha Male and all could use the extra exposure in their introductions to the UFC audience.

PRIDE is finally close to having the coffin closed – I started watching this sport as a fan of PRIDE. That said, the love shown by many hardcore PRIDE fans and disrespect shown by many UFC fans of the ear has been detrimental to attracting new hardcore fans to the major sites. Mirko Crocop's loss (likely a career ender) eliminates him from the picture at heavyweight just as Fedor Emelianenko's recent Strikeforce losses have done to him. Shogun Rua, while still likely to have a nice career in front of him, isn't likely to be champion again unless Jon Jones continues to grow and is forced to move to heavyweight. Rampage Jackson will likely get a shot at Jones, but it isn't likely to end well. The rest of the big PRIDE superstars are all on the downside of their careers if they even have a career left at this point. Only marginal PRIDE fighters Anderson Silva and Alistair Overeem remain at thee top of their weight classes at this point. To this I say bravo on great careers, thanks for the memories and don't hold on too long ala Chuck Liddell and his millions times being knocked out at the end of his career.

The Lightweight division is jammed – Jim Miller won again in the lightweight division and asked for a title shot. The problem he has is that it's not coming anytime soon no matter what he does. The title is tied up in the Edgar-Maynard trilogy at this point and the winner there is almost certainly getting the Anthony Pettis-Clay Guida winner after that. In addition, Miller has losses to both Edgar and Maynard, not a plus when trying to move into contention over guys where the matchups would be fresh. It seems the UFC is matching higher level contenders up with low-level lightweights hoping for upsets like Melvin Guillard's win over Evan Dunham and Dennis Siver's win over George Sotiropoulos to thin the contenders out. Even with those, the division is just a mess with all the WEC guys in the mix right now.

Anderson Silva, Georges St. Pierre and Jon Jones should stay right where they are – No superfights are needed. While St. Pierre will have cleaned out the welterweight division after beating Shields (if he in fact does so next month at UFC 129), Silva still has at the very least a rematch with Yushin Okami to finish off the middleweights. At the same time, many on the major MMA sites are now clamoring for Anderson Silva against Jon Jones instead of St. Pierre. Hold on with that. Jones has lots of work to do before he fights Silva unless Silva is permanently moving up. With that, the clamor is more for Silva to have some challenges once again. I really think people want to see Silva challenged by someone credible and they could care less who that is. It's not about St. Pierre or Jones or anyone else. It's all about Silva and the lack of competition he has faced at middleweight over the years.

UFC 128: Jones vs Rua preview

The most highly anticipated UFC fight card in quite some time airs Saturday night on pay per view. It is one of the more stacked cards in a long time as the depth of talent in place after the WEC merger really shows through for the first time this card.

Main Event – Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua vs Jon Jones

Rua is the more experienced fighter here, but I don't see a way to victory for him here other than a punchers chance with his power. Jones is just an awful matchup for him with his length and wrestling ability. While Rua will test Jones on the ground, unless there is a glaring submission defense hole that nobody other than Rua has any idea about, Jones will eventually win this fight by TKO on the ground.

Main Card fights

Urijah Faber vs Eddie Wineland – Wineland, the first WEC bantamweight champ will be a difficult test for Faber in his second fight at the weight and I actually think Wineland, after a couple of years of struggles but still only 26, will win the fight. I just don't believe Faber won't take the type of risks that got him knocked out in the first fight against Mike Brown and Wineland certainly has plenty of power to make that Faber's reality again.

Jim Miller vs Kamal Shalorus – Like recent fights involving Evan Dunham and George Sotiropolous, Miller is being put in with a dangerous guy he is supposed to beat as a showcase on the way to title contention. Like those two, he is going to lose, though it will be by decision after a sloppy kickboxing match.

Nate Marquart vs Dan Miller – Miller is average and coming in on short notice. Marquart is not in a title eliminator or title fight here. That combination means it will be a short night.

Brendan Schaub vs Mirko Crocop – PRIDE is dead. Crocop is old, injured and falling apart after many wars. Fans need to get that in their head. Schaub by KO.

Spike TV Prelims

Luiz Cane vs Eliot Marshall – What is Marshall's strategy? If it is to make this a standup fight, he is going to sleep. If it is to grind out a decision, that will be the result. Cane is going to win, by KO.

Anthony Njokuani vs Edson Barboza Jr. - Barboza is a polished striker and Njokuani isn't. This won't be pretty as Barboza picks him apart.

Facebook Prelims

Ricardo Almeida vs Mike Pyle – Almeida wins a boring jiu-jitsu match, bu decision.

Kurt Pellegrino vs Gleison Tibau – Pellegrino might could make 145. Tibau might could fight at 170 Size makes all the difference in a fight that is otherwise even. Tibau by decision.

Untelevised Prelims

Joseph Benavidez vs Ian Loveland – Why is the number two ranked bantamweight in the world not even on the facebook stream. Benavidez will take that as a slap in the face and take his frustration out on poor Mr. Loveland. Benavidez by whatever finish he feels like using, round one.

Raphael Assuncao vs Erik Koch – Assuncao is a better wrestler, but he likes to stand and bang. That will be his undoing against the Duke Roufas trained Koch.

Nick Catone vs Costantinos Philippou – I have no idea. I've at least seen Catone fight before. I wasn't impressed. Philippou by decision.

UFC buys Strikeforce... WHAT???

I awoke Saturday morning to the news that the UFC has bought main competitor Strikeforce giving them a monopoly on top-level MMA considering the collapse of Japanese promotions Sengoku and DREAM. I took a couple of days to think about this before writing this piece on the winners and losers in the deal.

Winners

Fans of superfights – At some point, there will be some big superfights between the best fighters in the two promotions. We will get to enjoy them.

Low-level UFC fighters – Some UFC fighters who need more seasoning can now be sent over to Strikeforce instead of being cut. It just gives them more opportunities to make it in the big show.

Current Strikeforce fighters – There is now a possible road to the UFC if they want it and there are now likely to be performance bonuses the likes of which they have not been receiving before

Losers

Mid-level fighters – There is now no negotiating leverage once its time to renegotiate. Jake Shields and Dan Henderson type fighters are just not getting the type of deals they got in the process of switching organizations anymore and anyone else who wants a big raise like that isn't getting it.

Fighters on the UFC blacklist – Paul Daley and Josh Barnett have a home, for now. Once the assumed UFC absorption of Strikeforce once the Showtime contracts expire happens, these guys are pretty much done in high-level MMA.

Showtime – The executives at Showtime hate Dana White and now they have to work with him. This is a bad day for them.

UFC Live on Versus 3 Fight Card Preview and Predictions

UFC Live on Versus 3 takes place tomorrow night on Versus (I hope you can find the channel by now despite its placement away from the sports channels on many cable and satellite systems).

Main Event: Diego Sanchez vs Martin Kampmann

This is one of the better free tv main events we've had from the UFC in awhile, probably since the last time either of these two guys showed up in a free main event (Sanchez against Clay Guida and Kampmann against Carlos Condit, both back in 2009). In Sanchez's return to welterweight, he looked bad in the first round until his cardio (that seemed to be missing at times when he was at lightweight) kicked in and he took it to Paulo Thiago last October. At that same event, Kampmann did his usual. He fought his fight and he made one major mistake that cost him against Jake Shields. To some degree, I view this fight as seeing if Sanchez is worthy of being at the top of the division. Kampmann's skill set will never make him a true contender (he's not bad at anything but has no overwhelming strength to rely on, an increasingly more dangerous problem to have in the current MMA landscape), but he beat anyone who isn't a contender that gets put in front of him.

As far as the fight itself goes, Sanchez will push the pace, Kampmann will do what he usually does and Sanchez will win the fight with his cardio in round three after splitting the first two rounds. Despite my fairly by the books prediction here, it should be an exciting fight that will win fight of the night barring a surprise finish here.

Sanchez by decision

Versus Card

C.B. Dollaway vs Mark Munoz

Both were extremely gifted college wrestlers that have been locked in the middle end of the middleweight division for quite some time. While both are looked at as disappointments considering the credibility they bring as wrestlers, neither really has a ton of experience. Dollaway in particular has never seemed like he was going to put it all together. He obviously has the talent, but with the exception of some inventive submissions (he is most likely to win submission of the night here), the complete package just isn't there. Opposite him stands Munoz, a wrestler who has a much better standup game than Dollaway, but whose wrestling hasn't transferred over to MMA as expected. The winner here stays on track to possibly reach the upper tier of the division while the loser is back to preliminaries and facebook fights despite what would be by that time, a wealth of experience in the UFC.

In the fight, expect a sloppy kickboxing match. The wrestling will cancel out and Dollaway's robotic striking will limit his ability to finish takedowns against Munoz while Munoz's inability to make his wrestling work in MMA will do much the same. With that happening, expect Munoz, the better striker, to impose his will over the final two rounds on his way to a decision win.

Munoz by decision

Alessio Sakara vs Chris Weidman

This fight appears to be a mismatch, especially in the experience category. That said, Sakara has wrestling issues at times and Weidman has shown he can wrestle in his four pro fights to date. Even coming in as a late replacement, Weidman will win if his cardio holds up. It will for the first two rounds and he will survive the third to take a decision win.

Weidman by decision

Brian Bowles vs Damacio Page

Bowles is the better fight and this is a showcase fight as long as his rebuilt hands hold up when he hits Page, and he will hit Page. Expect this to be very quick as Bowles has the best knockout power in the bantamweight division.

Bowles by TKO, round 1

Facebook Preliminaries

Joe Stevenson vs Danny Castillo

Stevenson has the better reputation and has fought much better competition over his career, but I wonder how much of that reputation is the Ultimate Fighter and favorable matchups, especially considering he has been largely uncompetitive against even good competition let alone great competition over the last couple of years. Here, he faces a middling former WEC lightweight, but that lightweight is fighting for his job and he knows it. That will be enough against the overrated Stevenson.

Castillo by decision

Steve Cantwell vs Cyrille Diabate

If Cantwell is over his injury issues, he wins this easily. Diabate has one huge win over Luiz Cane and a whole bunch of nothing in his career other than that. Cantwell is the better wrestler and has a very good jiu-jitsu game in addition to that. He should be able to get Diabate to the ground and submit him, unless the 18 month injury layoff has totally sapped him as a fighter.

Cantwell by submission, round 2

Under card

Thiago Tavares vs Shane Roller – Roller by decision

Takeya Mizugaki vs Reuben Duran – Mizugaki by decision

Rob Kimmons vs Dongi Yang – Yang by decision

Rousimar Palhares vs Dave Branch – Palhares by submission round 1

Igor Pokrajac vs Todd Brown – Pokrajac by TKO round 2

MMA Monday Review - 10 Thoughts on UFC 126

Jon Jones is still a prospect. It just that he's a prospect for pound-for-pound number one and not just light heavyweight champion – Jones athletic pedigree is at a level that nobody else in the UFC can match. MMA as a sport is still in its infancy and the money is not at a level that it can draw athletes like Jon Jones away from football or basketball on a consistent basis. Because of that, his freakish ability makes him a threat against anyone, and, at only 23 years old, he could ultimately go down as the best ever before everything is said and done (and even if not the best ever, he is a possible double-weight champion).

Rashad Evans should be getting his cut to middleweight ready now – Evans has said he won't fight his close friend and training partner Jones. Since Jones is now the top contender in Evans weight class and Evans is a smaller light heavyweight, he should be getting ready to cut to middleweight and make a run at the winner of the Anderson Silva-GSP superfight (assuming it eventually happens).

Anderson Silva should fight Yushin Okami before Georges St. Pierre – I believe this not because Silva needs to prove anything against Okami. Its more that with GSP wanting additional time to bulk up to be a legit middleweight it will leave Silva with close to a year off. Putting him in the cage with Okami during the summer leaves plenty of time for him to get healthy and put in a full training camp before a possible year end fight with GSP.

Who would've ever thought we would see a fight end on a Steven Seagal movie kick? - That was just a ridiculous kick and certainly one of the more impressive knockouts we have seen in a long time.

Forrest Griffin is not going to like the fight that seems to be in his future – I see Lyoto Machida in Griffin's future and that just seems to be an awful matchup for Griffin. Though a win would put him right in the thick of title contention.

Where does Rich Franklin go from here? - Franklin has now hit a dead end in two weight classes and seems destined for the senior circuit considering he has lost to Anderson Silva twice, Vitor Belfort, Dan Henderson and Griffin. Maybe he fights the winner of the Lil Nog-Ortiz fight but I don't see any real major fights for him. He also may have another trip to Europe as a weak headliner in his future.

Miguel Torres may lose a few fans, but he will regain his bantamweight title in the process – Torres finally fought with some self control and a gameplan after years of crazy brawls that finally caught up to him. If he is able to continue to use his incredible reach advantage, a return to the Bantamweight Title is a good bet.

Donald Cerrone is not a title caliber fighter, but there is a place for him in the UFC – Cerrone came over from the UFC and promptly won fight of the night in his first outing. He will never be a title contender, but a career not unlike that of Chris Lytle making a ton of money with bonuses and having a solid job even in the event of losses is not a bad place to be. The guy never puts on a boring fight.

Should Vitor Belfort consider going back to Light Heavyweight? - Having been dispatched by Silva in short order, Belfort is also at a crossroads. Being a former champion at 205 and holding a win over Franklin, Belfort is realistically not too far from title contention at that weight class. Three wins could get him there and it will take at least that to get back to that level at middleweight as well... Where the result would be the same.

Ryan Bader is still a future Light Heavyweight Champ – Someday fairly soon, I think the 23 year old Jon Jones will continue growing into his frame and be forced to move up to heavyweight. At that point, Bader's wrestling could easily re-emerge as a title threat in the only division where wrestlers have really struggled in the UFC. Despite the one-sided loss, it is only one loss.

UFC 125 Preview

UFC 125 is Saturday night and while normally I would offer predictions, I just can't bring myself to care about this event. There are a multitude of reasons that I think are relevant and that will cause many fans to pass on this card, quite possibly making it one of the least watched title fights since the Ultimate Fighter and subsequent boom in the sport.

The Date – I get that the UFC always tries to have a year end card. Others than last year's injury riddled bust, they have done a good job, but this year is a whole different animal. Sports fans in general are going to be tired Saturday. They will have been watching football all day and while the hardcore fans will order this card, they order every card. The UFC needs casual fans and to crossover into the regular sporting conscience if it wants to be a truly major sport. Holding a championship fight card on New Year's the night before the end of the NFL season and after an entire day of college football is just not a way to draw any casual fans.

The Main Event – Let's face it, Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard, the main event combatants, are relatively boring fighters who have the charisma of doorknobs. There is just no way to sell this fight and while it probably needed to happen, putting it as the Main Event on one of the biggest cards of the year is not a great idea to keep it as one of the biggest cars of the year. In addition, Maynard really only has one route to victory and its a boring one: grind Edgar out for a decision from top control. While he did that successfully once before, it was one of the more boring MMA fights I ever watched. Re-watching that fight earlier today was about as boring as can be and 15 minutes of my life that I will never get back.

The Co-Main Event – Brian Stann and Chris Leben is just bad. I realize that Jose Aldo was injured and couldn't fight but this is still a terrible co-Main. Stann is barely a main card level fighter and while Leben is exciting, he is not an elite fighter at the level of many other co-Main fighters. Considering this fight has little to no relevance in the middleweight championship picture, it is not worthy as a co-Main. In addition, this fight makes no sense for Leben. Back in the summer, Leben beat Yoshihiro Akiyama who got a Main Event against Michael Bisping. Why does Leben, the winner of that fight, get the lightly regarded Stann?

That said, there are some good things on this card. Mainly, everything else. The rest of this card looks very enjoyable (with the exception of Phil Baroni, why is he still in the UFC?). Too bad the fights will be televised by Ion (where are they on my channel list in some cases, or in untelevised limbo for the others. I would really like to see both Mike Brown and Antonio McKee but that's not an option and I would like to watch Josh Grispi and Marcus Davis if I can remember to turn to it and I can find Ion. The matchmaking looks good, just not enough with a terrible couple of fights on the top of the card.

Fighting Fridays – Strikeforce: Henderson vs Sobral and Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale Predictions

Saturday night we have two major cards going head-to-head as Strikeforce crowns a top contender for its light heavyweight championship and the UFC crowns another Ultimate Fighter champion.

Strikeforce Predictions – Card airs live from Scottrade Center in St. Louis 7PM PT on Showtime

Dan Henderson vs Renato 'Babalu' Sobral

First of all, throw everything from the first match between these two completely out the window. It was ten years ago in a crazy Japanese promotion with different rules. Also, it was before Henderson realized he could knock people out and before Babalu really learned how to submit people in an MMA fight. In this fight there are three factors in play: Henderson's stand up advantage, Henderson's wrestling against Babalu's submission game and the age/wear and tear factor. Obviously, Henderson is the better striker. He is the only one who has one punch knockout power and his striking has been better than Babalu's for some time now. On the ground, the two will nullify each other as Henderson likely won't want this on the ground and Sobral may not be able to get it there. The age factor is more of a concern for Henderson. He is 40 and looked terrible in his last fight and while Sobral is no youngin at 35, he hasn't seemed to lose a step recently. At the end, I think Henderson takes the decision here. He won't get submitted on the ground when it does go there and while his wrestling isn't great anymore, Babalu isn't an incredible take down artist. Henderson may gas because of his age, but only after winning two rounds.

Henderson by decision

Paul Daley vs Scott Smith

Smith is in his first fight at 170. That bodes ill for him as he likely won't have the energy to pull off another comeback from the dead if he even survives long enough for that to matter. I fully expect Daley, with no threat of a take down from Smith to win easily. It's just a matter of how long it takes to finish it.

Daley by TKO round 2

Robbie Lawler vs Matt Lindland

Lindland is old and losing steam, a one-trick wrestler type of fighter, and has trouble with southpaws. Lawler is young, has decent take down defense (though bad submission defense once someone gets hi down) and is a southpaw. This won't be pretty for the old man.

Lawler by KO round 1

Antonio Silva vs Mike Kyle

Kyle is a light heavyweight fighting a 265 pounder on short notice without having any noticeably better skills. I'll quote Kid Nate of bloodyelbow.com here, “Silva should pillage Kyle like a Viking horde on vacation at an Irish monastery in 1066.”

Silva by TKO round 2

Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

Stephan Bonnar vs Igor Pokrajac

Pokrajac is terrible and Bonnar is over the hill. Why is this the main event? Anyway, even an over the hill and no longer developing Bonnar should take this easily. It will likely be slow moving and boring on the way to a decision though.

Bonnar by decision

Jonathan Brookins vs Michael Johnson

This is a crap shoot just like all Ultimate Fighter Championship matches are. What we saw on the show and in the house doesn't much matter. There was no training camp there like there was here. Flip a coin and it comes up...

Brookins by decision

Kendall Grove vs Demian Maia

Grove is a possible upset winner here. Maia despite his reputation hasn't looked quite the same since getting his clock cleaned by Nate Marquart at UFC 102 in August 2009. His take downs that he was getting before haven't been there and his standup, while improving, still isn't great. Grove is inconsistent, but I think he will stuff the take down and then take a close controversial decision on the feet.

Grove by decision

Rick Story vs Johny Hendricks

Both are about equal in overall talent. Hendricks is the better wrestler though. Under those circumstances, always go with the wrestler by decision.

Hendricks by decision

Leonard Garcia vs Nam Phan

Is Phan significantly better than Garcia? No. Can Phan finish Garcia? No. Then Phan will lose because nearly every close decision that Garcia is involved in goes to Garcia.

Garcia by decision.

UFC/WEC Merger – What does it mean?

For those who haven't seen the news, the UFC and its little sister organization the WEC merged today effective January 1^st. What does it mean?

There are two more UFC titles to contest

Considering that PPVs with title fights draw double the number of buys on average than cards without a title fight, having two more titles is a valuable proposition for the UFC. Add to that that featherweight champ Jose Aldo has already the biggest drawing non-UFC pay per view in MMA history (WEC 48 against Urijah Faber) and there are some new big draws in the UFC

Fight cards that were starting to look weak should start getting deeper again

In the first couple of years after the Ultimate Fighter, fight cards were stacked with great fights among top level fighters even on the undercard and sometimes stretching to the preliminary card. In the last year and a half as the UFC has put on more fight cards on, the depth has suffered on many cards, especially those on free TV or held in Europe. Those European cards should have some halfway decent headliners again instead of Michael Bisping (a great draw in Europe but not worth anything in the US) especially since there is now the possibility of an occasional title fight, especially from the lighter weight classes. The fight night cards also should start regaining depth as many of the WEC fighters coming over have been fighting for free on Versus anyway.

The lightweight division has some time to work itself out

With the winner of the final WEC Lightweight Title fight between Ben Henderson and Anthony Pettis getting an instant title shot, the lightweight division has some time to work out a new contender from the masses behind Maynard and Edgar.

WEC fighters get some bigger paydays

The lack of pay certainly had the possibility of stunting the growth in the WEC divisions as the top fighters were making no more and 20-30k instead of the 100k many UFC fighters make. The fight night bonuses also get a whole lot bigger. Previously, most WEC cards were in the 10-15k range. Now the Fight Night and Ultimate Fighter cards are usually at 25-30k and numbered events generally around 60-70k.

The Ultimate Fighter might produce a contender again

The Ultimate Fighter had a great influence on the sport even beyond its reach as early seasons produced many top contenders. Forrest Griffin, Diego Sanchez, Kenny Florian, Josh Koscheck, Rashad Evans, Keith Jardine, Michael Bisping, Nate Diaz, Gray Maynard and Ryan Bader all entered the UFC off of the Ultimate Fighter. There have been none recently except Roy Nelson and he was already an established fighter who was on the Ultimate Fighter to get into the UFC because his physique limited his options otherwise. Now, lighter weight classes will be in the mix and they will be in the mix soon. Considering that the first time each weight class has been used, it has produced a contender (even if not in that same weight class), there is the possibility of featherweights and bantamweights producing contenders from the show extending its life span and relevance.

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UFC 121 Review

UFC 121 was last Saturday. Here are my thoughts on the event.

Brock Lesnar needs to learn how to gameplan better

It may not have mattered in his loss to Cain Velasquez, but Lesnar came out way too quickly in his fight with Velasquez. His pace was unsustainable for any length of time and when he threw everything at the challenger in the first minute and nothing worked, he broke mentally. Combine this with a slow start against Shane Carwin when Lesnar was overwhelmed and nearly finished and its clear there is problem in first round gameplanning. Once again, it may not have made a difference in the result, but I believe Lesnar could have gotten into the 3^rd or 4^th round and tested both his own and Velasquez's cardio.

It is not the era of Velasquez yet

Joe Rogan was talking at the end of the broadcast about this possibly being a new era. While Velasquez was incredibly impressive, let's not get ahead of ourselves like we did with Lyoto Machida. Velasquez has yet to defend the title and Junior don Santos appears to have the most refined stand up game among UFC heavyweights. If dos Santos can stay off his back, he has a real chance to dethrone Velasquez in his first title defense. Also, no heavyweight has successfully defended the heavyweight title more than twice. Get to three defenses and we can talk era of Velasquez.

Diego Sanchez made the correct decision

Sanchez started off at Greg Jackson's camp and while he was still semi-successful while he was away, it is clear he is a better fighter with Jackson's gameplanning. Sanchez started slow against Paulo Thiago, but then imposed his will against the Brazilian wearing him down and while he was put in tough spots after getting the advantage still, Thiago had been worn down and could not finish off his submission attempts. Credit Sanchez for realizing what he needed to do and go back to Jackson's camp and credit both for working together and successfully implementing a good gameplan with nice adjustments as the fight went on

Gabriel Gonzaga is done

Brendan Schaub is not a top caliber heavyweight at this point. That said, he took apart gabriel Gonzaga who once looked like the next big thing in the UFC heavyweight division. Gonzaga looked slow and disinterested with no way to avoid getting picked apart by the jab. He also has lost his jiu-jistu game despite holding a black belt and being one of the more accomplished heavyweight grapplers in the UFC.

The welterweight title picture is a mess

Jake Shields, Jon Fitch and Carlos Condit have moved to the front of the welterweight class behind challenger Josh Koscheck and Georges St. Pierre. Considering Fitch and Shields are like watching paint dry when they fight, matching them up with each other, while eliminating one of them from title contention, would be one of the most boring fights the UFC could make and it would have to be at the top of the card. The better move is probably to send Shields to the title shot against the winner of St. Pierre/Koscheck and have Fitch and Condit fight a number one contender fight.

Tito Ortiz is done

Ortiz looked healthy but old against Matt Hamill. Considering his age, the UFC should just release him unless they are going to do the rumored third Liddell-Ortiz fight. If they do that fight, it should not be a main event (unless its a fight night or a Euro card) and the winner should be fed to the next big thing in the light heavyweight division after that with neither getting anywhere a major contender.

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Fighting Fridays – UFC 121 Preview

One of the biggest UFC events of the year is tomorrow night though it has received very little coverage and hype in the mainstream media compared to previous Brock Lesnar title defenses.

Main Event – Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez

Lesnar is a huge beast of a fighter, but he only survived Carwin because of better cardio and that won't be a huge advantage here. I think Velasquez will frustrate Lesnar because of his excellent defensive wrestling and win decisively in the stand up eventually leading to a finish on the ground in the championship rounds.

Cain Velasquez by TKO round 4

Jake Shields vs Martin Kampmann

Kampmann has been close to a title shot before but blew it by having a bad gameplan against Paul Daley. Here, the problem won't be the gameplan but the opponent. Shields is going to control this fight and might actually get a finish with elbows on the ground available to him again after fighting in Strikeforce where elbow can't be used.

Shields by TKO round 2

Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago

Sanchez has been overrated for quite some time and while Thiago is no world-beater, he is much better than Sanchez at this weight. That said, Sanchez has a chance if he can find some power, but with him openly talking about dropping back to 155, there is no way he wins here.

Thiago by decision

Matt Hamill vs Tito Ortiz

Ortiz isn't healthy. I'm not buying his statement that he is, and even if he is, there is that pesky ring rust thing to deal with. With no explosiveness, Ortiz can't work his takedowns and Hamill wins the fight in a boring decision.

Hamill by decision

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Brendan Schaub

Schaub is no top caliber heavyweight. Only top level heavyweights beat Gonzaga. That said, this fight involves Gabriel Gonzaga. It won't get out of round one no matter the winner.

Gonzaga by submission round 1

Ryan Jensen vs Court McGee

When in doubt, use the Joe Silva principle. The winner of this fight is whoever UFC matchmaker Joe Silva thinks in more marketable. McGee as an Ultimate Fighter winner is that guy.

McGee by decision

Patrick Cote vs Tom Lawlor

Cote is still recovering from his injuries suffered to his knee in the Anderson Silva fight, but that won't matter here. Lawlor isn't very good and Cote is an ex title challenger.

Cote by TKO round 2

Fighting Fridays: UFC 120 Preview

UFC 120 airs Saturday night on tape delay on Spike TV. Here is a preview of the three relevant fights on the main card.

Main Event: Michael Bisping vs Yoshihiro Akiyama
Let me start this by saying I like Akiyama. He always comes to fight and is in entertaining scraps. That said, this is going to be too much for him. I know the dangers of looking at MMAth but Chris Leben was steamrolled by Bisping while on steroids a couple of years ago while a presumably clean (and therefore not as good) version of Leben upset Akiyama only two weeks after fighting previously. Bisping, while lacking power, is a more well-rounded fighter who is truly dangerous on the ground while Akiyama would probably fair much better in the welterweight division where he wouldn’t be such a small guy.
Bisping wins by unanimous decision

Co-Main Event: Dan Hardy vs Carlos Condit
I am also a big fan of Condit. He always brings it just as Akiyama does. The difference here is that Condit is better than Akiyama and drew a much better matchup in the wrestling deficient Hardy. I expect Condit to try his luck standing and get tagged but not knocked out before taking things to the ground. Once on the ground, Condit will control this fight and ultimately get the submission that Greg Jackson teammate Georges St. Pierre could not.
Condit by submission Round 2

John Hathaway vs Mike Pyle
Hathaway burst onto the scene by destroying Diego Sanchez so bad that Sanchez finally went crawling back to Greg Jackson’s camp. Here, Hathaway is the prohibitive favorite at home and while he won’t finish Pyle, he will never be in any real danger of losing the fight.

Fighting Fridays – Strikeforce: Diaz vs Noons 2

Below is the first fight between the two fought for Elite XC's 160 pound title and won by Noons via doctor's stoppage for a cut.

What can be gleamed from the first fight?

Noons was getting the better of Diaz in the standup game as can be expected from someone with his standup pedigree as a semi-successful boxer and kickboxer. Despite being a primarily stand up fighter, Noons was able to stuff Diaz's takedowns and even hit the knee that opened the fight ending cut on Diaz when Diaz was shooting for the takedown. Also, Noons was able to get up from the ground the one time the fight went there.

What can be thrown out?

Diaz had surgery not long after that fight and his cut problems (he had been opened up many times before that fight) have gone away. Diaz has also greatly improved his boxing game since then neglecting the ground game but not needing it in his long win streak since that fight. Diaz also seemed to lack explosiveness in the first fight, but that was fought closer to Noons ideal weight at 160 pounds. This fight will be at a more Diaz-friendly weight of 170.

What else will affect this fight?

Gas tank Noons has never been really deep into a fight in MMA. How will he react and will his gas tank hold up against the superior conditioning of Diaz in the 4^th and 5^th rounds? How will the jump in weight affect Noons. Noons has never fought above 160 in his MMA career. This fight is being fought at 170. Will the extra weight hinder him in any way and will he be execute the same gameplan as the first fight when Diaz isn't sapped from a difficult weight cut.

The pick: Noons by TKO, Round 3.

I think Noons is a very live underdog here and I believe he will win this fight. Diaz is the better overall fighter, but this is a bad matchup.

Picks for other main card bouts:

Sarah Kaufman over Marloes Coenen

Josh Thomson over Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante

Tyron Woodley over Andre Galvao

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Fighting Fridays - WEC 51 Review

Jose Aldo may end up the best ever in MMA – Aldo destroyed Manny Gamburyan last night. It took a round to get going and then it was over. Combined with the leg kick fest that was the Faber fight, finishing Mike Brown and the double knee knockout of Cub Swanson, Aldo is on a roll like nothing we have seen since Anderson Silva's first few UFC fights. It's too bad he isn't getting the exposure of the UFC since he might be the best fighter in the world. After a couple more dominant wins, it may be time for Aldo to change weight classes. The only problem to getting more dominant wins is a current lack of challengers.

On second thought, the Korean Zombie-Garcia fight from earlier this year was even more sloppy than everyone thought it was in the first place – Jung (the Korean Zombie) was knocked out in spectacular fashion against George Roop. Roop's headkick was a thing of beauty, but it was allowed by Jung's lack of defense. Jung has an incredible chin, but even the best of chins can only take so much damage before failing. As for Garcia, he just looked awful in the final two rounds against Mark Hominick. He strayed from the gameplan (if in fact there was one) and swung for the fences only hitting air most of the time. Even when he did connect after the first round, he was usually eating two punches to land one.

Cerrone-Varner needs to end before Cerrone does something really stupid – Cerrone won the fight and Varner immediately offered a rematch to finish the trilogy. That should not be made anytime soon. Cerrone, while an entertaining fighter, is likely to do something that leaves a black mark on the sport if that fight is made because of his hatred of Varner. To recap last night, Cerrone won the fight and Varner tried to bury the hatchet as has been done in many heated trash talking feuds such as Penn-Sherk and Hughes-Serra. Cerrone wanted none of it and shoved Varner away with his forearm. Considering that Cerrone is the man who said he wanted to kill Varner in the cage a few weeks ago, this is not behavior that should be tolerated and it certainly shouldn't come up again in a few short months. If there is a 3^rd fight to be made between these two, make it be earned by one of them winning the title and the other earning his way back to number one contender status.

This night was a good night of fights in general, but bad by WEC standards – It seemed watching the fights that there was no true standout like there has been in the past. It was exciting but there was a meh factor here especially with nobody at all thinking there was any chance for Aldo to lose.

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Weekend Review: Non-College Football Edition

Things here at aubievegas tend to get skewed heavily towards college football, especially in season. That said, there are other things going on that are important. Here are some things that caught my eye outside of college football over the weekend.

The scoring of the Evan Dunham-Sean Sherk fight at UFC 119 was terrible, but its not entirely unexpected. Cecil Peoples was a judge and he has been involved in more high profile judiging screw up and controversies than any other judge in MMA. For the record, Peoples was one of the two judges that gave the fight to Sean Sherk over Dunham and he is also the only judge who I can identify by name because he has been involved in so many issues including the Bisping-Hamill and Machida-Rua fights that went to controversial decisions. It's too bad too because the judging ruined what might have been the only truly good fight of the night.

The baseball pennant races are missing something. We have an all-out sprint to the finish between three teams in the NL West and a close race in the AL East. The problem is there is no urgency yet. In the Al East, the outcome only matters for which team hosts game seven of a potential LCS between the Rays and Yankees. Nothing more. In the NL West, the wildcard fallback along with the Braves involvement in that race actually takes away something from the race. As long as there is a wildcard, we will never see another race like the San Francisco-Atlanta pennant race in 1993.

Why did the Chargers kick to Leon Washington again? He had already taken one back for a touchdown. Once a guy takes one back in a game, the rule should be to kick away from him for the remainder of the game. Instead the Chargers kicked to him again and paid for it with a 1-2 start that might actually hurt them since they have already lost a game to the 3-0 Chiefs.

The main event of UFC 119 between Frank Mir and Mirko CroCop was atrocious. Nothing happened at all during the fight except Mir's knee to finish the the fight and the boos were loud and warranted. It was so bad that Dana White didn't give Frank Mir a Knockout of the Night bonus despite being the only knockout of the night.

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Fighting Fridays – UFC 119 and DREAM 16 Preview

Two major MMA cards take place this weekend, here is a preview of what will happen:

Best fight of the weekend: Hideo Tokoro vs Joachim Hansen

These two always keep coming forward and while the fight isn't really relevant in the rankings, nothing else this weekend is going to make a huge impact either. If nothing else, this will be entertaining from start to finish and worth DVR'ing at least for those who have HDNet.

Worst fight of the weekend: Hiroyuki Takaya vs Chase Beebe

While DREAM has booked the best fight of the weekend, they also booked the worst. Beebe is among the most boring fighters in the sport and Takaya isn't going to bring out the best in him from what little I have seen of him.

Safest Pick: Gegard Mousasi over Tatsuya Mizuno

Mousasi was sent back to DREAM by Strikeforce to rebuild his confidence against the weak light heavyweight division in DREAM. After this fight, mission accomplished and Strikeforce can book Mousasi against Rafael Cavalcante in a possible fireworks laden showdown.

Possible Upset: Mirko 'CroCop' Filipovic over Frank Mir

CroCop, while not his fearsome self of the past has shown he is still a capable fighter in recent fights while Mir has been up and down and all over the place. For CroCop, even as he has struggled, it has been very difficult to take him down and keep him there. Mir may not be able to it and it that's the case, I see CroCop outpointing Mir standing to take a close decision win.

Picks of all the fights:

UFC 119 – Saturday night on Pay Per View

Main Card

CroCop over Mir

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira over Ryan Bader

Chris Lytle over Matt Serra

Evan Dunham over Sean Sherk

Melvin Guillard over Jeremy Stephens

Spike TV Prelims – 6PM PT on Spike TV

Joe Doerksen over C.B. Dollaway

Matt Mitrione over Joey Beltran

Prelims

Thiago Tavares over Pat Audinwood

Steve Lopez over Waylon Lowe

T.J. Grant over Julio Paulino

Mark Hunt over Sean McCorkle

DREAM 16 – Friday night, 11PM PT on HDNet

Ikuhisa Minowa over Satoshi Ishii

Mousasi over Mizuno

Shinya Aoki over Marcus Aurellio

Jason Miller over Kazushi Sakuraba (how many more beatings can he take)

Hansen over Tokoro

Mitsuhiro Ishida over Akiyo Nishiura

Michihiro Omigawa over Cole Escovedo

Beebe over Takaya

Takeshi Inoue over Kazuyuki Miyata

Yusuke Kawaguchi over James Thompson