UFC 129 airs this Saturday with the main card airing on Pay Per View at 8 CT/6PT (an hour earlier than normal), preliminary fights airing on Spike TV an hour before that and five more fights airing before that on Facebook.
Main Event: UFC Welterweight Title, Georges St. Pierre vs Jake Shields
Shields is legitimately the biggest test St. Pierre has faced since regaining his championship from Matt Serra at UFC 83. He is a big welterweight (big enough to have fought successfully at middleweight off and on for quite some time including wins over Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Dan Henderson and UFC Middleweight top contender Yushin Okami) with rudimentary striking but an impressive and aggressive ground game that grinds out decisions Jon Fitch style or submits opponents from top position depending on the opposition. With a win streak that dates back to 2005, Shields is a formidable threat on the ground.
Opposing Shields is St. Pierre, the most dominant force in the UFC today. Since losing to Matt Serra, St. Pierre has relied on his wrestling to overwhelm and dominate opponents defeating wrestler after wrestler with their own style while also running over striking based challengers. Nobody has been close to him at any point since he regained the title.
As for the fight, I expect this to be different from many of St. Pierre's recent wins. First, I believe Shields is St. Pierre's equal in the ground game. Hopefully, Georges hasn't forgotten how to strike. He is going to have a big advantage in that area and I expect he will keep it standing. The other difference is that Shields will get it to the ground and take a round of St. Pierre for the first time since the first Josh Koscheck fight way back at UFC 74. It won't help him win, but Shields will gain respect enough that once he wins a few fights in a row, he won't be perpetually stuck in Jon Fitch land never receiving another title opportunity.
St. Pierre by decision – Shields chin is impeccable and will keep him from being knocked out, but St. Pierre will win this on the feet.
Co-Main Event: UFC Featherweight Title, Jose Aldo vs Mark Hominick
Many have been saying Hominick has a chance in this fight recently. I don't buy it. While he has good technical striking, Aldo is on another level. That and Hominick is not a new import to this division like future contenders will be. I expect the aura of invincibility that Aldo has around him from his WEC days to be shattered fairly soon, but it won't come here against the average Hominick. I expect him to be a nice gatekeeper in this division, but nothing more. Closest profile, title challengers Joe Stevenson and Gabriel Gonzaga who were never great but earned title shots in weak divisions before being dispatched at the competition got better.
Aldo by TKO, round 3
Main Card: Randy Couture vs Lyoto Machida
Couture is being booked in the Japanese style of retirement fight here. In Japan, when fighters are retiring, they usually go out on the wrong end of an ugly beating intentionally set forth for them by the promotion. That will be the case here. I see no way for Couture to win other than the pin him to the cage strategy he used to beat Brandon Vera. I expect that Machida has studied and knows this and will have his footwork issues from the Rampage Jackson fight corrected to keep it from happening. With that problem out of the way, Couture's weakening chin comes into play. Machida will find it at some point and it will be lights out, just as it was against Lesnar and Liddell.
Machida by KO, round 2
Vladimir Matyushenko vs Jason Brilz
Brilz seems like a poor man's Matyushenko. That is generally not a good thing. The 'Janitor' takes it unless age quickly and unexpectedly becomes a factor.
Matyushenko by decision
Mark Bocek vs Ben Henderson
When we last saw Henderson, he was on the wrong end of Anthony Pettis' incredible 'Showtime Kick' to finish out the WEC. What we know from that and previous fights is that he is nearly impossible to finish (between surviving that kick even though it cost him the decision and all of Donald Cerrone's submissions back in 2009, Henderson seems impervious to pain) and he can submit opponents if an opening is left for him. On the other side, Bocek is a submission wizard with some flaws in his striking game. I think that spells trouble here. Henderson isn't getting submitted and while he lack power in his strikes, I think he pitter patters his way to a decision victory.
Henderson by decision
Spike TV Undercard
Nate Diaz vs Rory MacDonald – Diaz is the better fighter and as long as he doesn't try anything stupid (you never know with a Diaz), he should win. Diaz by decision
Sean Pierson vs Jake Ellenberger – Ellenberger is a monster. He is going to tear Pierson up on the ground on the way to a dominate wrestling decision win. Ellenberg by decision.
Facebook Undercard
Claude Patrick vs Daniel Roberts – Roberts by decision
Ivan Menjivar vs Charlie Valencia – Menjivar by decision
Jason MacDonald vs Ryan Jensen – MacDonald by TKO
John Makdessi vs Kyle Watson – Makdessi by decision
Yves Jabouin vs Pablo Garza – Garza by TKO
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