What can be gleamed from the first fight?
Noons was getting the better of Diaz in the standup game as can be expected from someone with his standup pedigree as a semi-successful boxer and kickboxer. Despite being a primarily stand up fighter, Noons was able to stuff Diaz's takedowns and even hit the knee that opened the fight ending cut on Diaz when Diaz was shooting for the takedown. Also, Noons was able to get up from the ground the one time the fight went there.
What can be thrown out?
Diaz had surgery not long after that fight and his cut problems (he had been opened up many times before that fight) have gone away. Diaz has also greatly improved his boxing game since then neglecting the ground game but not needing it in his long win streak since that fight. Diaz also seemed to lack explosiveness in the first fight, but that was fought closer to Noons ideal weight at 160 pounds. This fight will be at a more Diaz-friendly weight of 170.
What else will affect this fight?
Gas tank Noons has never been really deep into a fight in MMA. How will he react and will his gas tank hold up against the superior conditioning of Diaz in the 4th and 5th rounds? How will the jump in weight affect Noons. Noons has never fought above 160 in his MMA career. This fight is being fought at 170. Will the extra weight hinder him in any way and will he be execute the same gameplan as the first fight when Diaz isn't sapped from a difficult weight cut.
The pick: Noons by TKO, Round 3.
I think Noons is a very live underdog here and I believe he will win this fight. Diaz is the better overall fighter, but this is a bad matchup.
Picks for other main card bouts:
Sarah Kaufman over Marloes Coenen
Josh Thomson over Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante
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