Fighting Fridays – Strikeforce: Diaz vs Daley Preview and Predictions

Main Event: Strikeforce Welterweight Title, Nick Diaz (c) vs Paul Daley

With the purchase of Strikeforce by UFC parent company Zuffa, this bout both takes on added significance and loses some luster at the same time. What is lost is championship relevance. With Strikeforce under Zuffa control, this championship is just another lower league title right now. At the same time, it is a chance to impress the new bosses and get in position for a shot at UFC gold somewhere down the line (at least for Diaz, Daley has other issues).

As for the fight itself, Diaz has a huge advantage on the ground and has a small advantage striking, but not in the power department. I expect this fight to go a lot like the fight with Evangelista Cyborg Santos did in January, but without the foolish takedown setting the submission up. On the other side, Daley has one-punch knockout power, but at we saw in the Josh Koscheck fight last year, it can be nullified by a strong wrestler. Diaz is not a strong wrestler despite his good jiu-jitsu game.

Ultimately, Diaz is going to wear Daley out. Diaz has shown an incredible chin in his career and this will be no exception. Daley might even win a round or two early, but Diaz and his relentless volume striking will eventually carry the day.

Diaz by decision.

Strikeforce Lightweight Title, Gilbert Melendez (c) vs Tatsuya Kawajiri

Melendez gets a chance to continue his run through the non-UFC lightweight division with a rematch against Kawajiri who he beat in PRIDE in a classic match back in 2006. Since then, Melendez has just gotten better while Kawajiri has slipped a little getting knocked out by Eddie Alvarez and facing less than stellar competition.

In this fight, Kawajiri will also have to deal with the issues his countryman Shinya Aoki dealt with last year: the Unified Rules and the cage. Kawajiri has done very well over his career cutting the ring off and cornering opponents into the clinch where he can then work a very American style game of takedowns, top control and ground and pound. He is certainly better suited to the cage than Aoki, but he may find the tool shed empty in his attack without some of the knees and kicks to downed opponents that have been available to him. At the same time, Kawajiri will have to deal with elbows to the head while on the ground for the first time (and also the first time in Strikeforce). With all those changes and both fighters being four year older since the first bout, I don't see too many ways to victory for Kawajiri.

Melendez by decision

Gegard Mousasi vs Keith Jardine

A short notice fight after Mike Kyle was injured, Jardine will come to fight with his trademark awkward striking and ability to brawl. That said, he has no chance of winning this fight that way. Jardine only has one path to victory and that is a top control decision. The reason of course is that Mousasi possesses K-1 level striking and Jardine's chin remains an enigma easily solvable by left-look at this point in his career. Mousasi will find that KO button if Jardine keeps this standing.

Mousasi by KO, round 3

Shinya Aoki vs Lyle Beerbohm

First things first. If bright colors scare you and ridiculous patterns from the early 90s frighten you, wait for awhile to tune in because this fight will scar your eyes between whatever crazy bright Japanese pants Aoki wears and Beerbohm and his 'fancy pants'. That said, this fight looks sadly one-sided. Beerbohm doesn't have the striking to win without going to the ground. Going to the ground is just about the worst thing anyone can do with Aoki. Hopefully Fancy Pants gets out with all of his limbs still in one piece.

Aoki by submission, round 2

UFC 125 Preview

UFC 125 is Saturday night and while normally I would offer predictions, I just can't bring myself to care about this event. There are a multitude of reasons that I think are relevant and that will cause many fans to pass on this card, quite possibly making it one of the least watched title fights since the Ultimate Fighter and subsequent boom in the sport.

The Date – I get that the UFC always tries to have a year end card. Others than last year's injury riddled bust, they have done a good job, but this year is a whole different animal. Sports fans in general are going to be tired Saturday. They will have been watching football all day and while the hardcore fans will order this card, they order every card. The UFC needs casual fans and to crossover into the regular sporting conscience if it wants to be a truly major sport. Holding a championship fight card on New Year's the night before the end of the NFL season and after an entire day of college football is just not a way to draw any casual fans.

The Main Event – Let's face it, Frank Edgar and Gray Maynard, the main event combatants, are relatively boring fighters who have the charisma of doorknobs. There is just no way to sell this fight and while it probably needed to happen, putting it as the Main Event on one of the biggest cards of the year is not a great idea to keep it as one of the biggest cars of the year. In addition, Maynard really only has one route to victory and its a boring one: grind Edgar out for a decision from top control. While he did that successfully once before, it was one of the more boring MMA fights I ever watched. Re-watching that fight earlier today was about as boring as can be and 15 minutes of my life that I will never get back.

The Co-Main Event – Brian Stann and Chris Leben is just bad. I realize that Jose Aldo was injured and couldn't fight but this is still a terrible co-Main. Stann is barely a main card level fighter and while Leben is exciting, he is not an elite fighter at the level of many other co-Main fighters. Considering this fight has little to no relevance in the middleweight championship picture, it is not worthy as a co-Main. In addition, this fight makes no sense for Leben. Back in the summer, Leben beat Yoshihiro Akiyama who got a Main Event against Michael Bisping. Why does Leben, the winner of that fight, get the lightly regarded Stann?

That said, there are some good things on this card. Mainly, everything else. The rest of this card looks very enjoyable (with the exception of Phil Baroni, why is he still in the UFC?). Too bad the fights will be televised by Ion (where are they on my channel list in some cases, or in untelevised limbo for the others. I would really like to see both Mike Brown and Antonio McKee but that's not an option and I would like to watch Josh Grispi and Marcus Davis if I can remember to turn to it and I can find Ion. The matchmaking looks good, just not enough with a terrible couple of fights on the top of the card.

Fighting Fridays – Strikeforce: Henderson vs Sobral and Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale Predictions

Saturday night we have two major cards going head-to-head as Strikeforce crowns a top contender for its light heavyweight championship and the UFC crowns another Ultimate Fighter champion.

Strikeforce Predictions – Card airs live from Scottrade Center in St. Louis 7PM PT on Showtime

Dan Henderson vs Renato 'Babalu' Sobral

First of all, throw everything from the first match between these two completely out the window. It was ten years ago in a crazy Japanese promotion with different rules. Also, it was before Henderson realized he could knock people out and before Babalu really learned how to submit people in an MMA fight. In this fight there are three factors in play: Henderson's stand up advantage, Henderson's wrestling against Babalu's submission game and the age/wear and tear factor. Obviously, Henderson is the better striker. He is the only one who has one punch knockout power and his striking has been better than Babalu's for some time now. On the ground, the two will nullify each other as Henderson likely won't want this on the ground and Sobral may not be able to get it there. The age factor is more of a concern for Henderson. He is 40 and looked terrible in his last fight and while Sobral is no youngin at 35, he hasn't seemed to lose a step recently. At the end, I think Henderson takes the decision here. He won't get submitted on the ground when it does go there and while his wrestling isn't great anymore, Babalu isn't an incredible take down artist. Henderson may gas because of his age, but only after winning two rounds.

Henderson by decision

Paul Daley vs Scott Smith

Smith is in his first fight at 170. That bodes ill for him as he likely won't have the energy to pull off another comeback from the dead if he even survives long enough for that to matter. I fully expect Daley, with no threat of a take down from Smith to win easily. It's just a matter of how long it takes to finish it.

Daley by TKO round 2

Robbie Lawler vs Matt Lindland

Lindland is old and losing steam, a one-trick wrestler type of fighter, and has trouble with southpaws. Lawler is young, has decent take down defense (though bad submission defense once someone gets hi down) and is a southpaw. This won't be pretty for the old man.

Lawler by KO round 1

Antonio Silva vs Mike Kyle

Kyle is a light heavyweight fighting a 265 pounder on short notice without having any noticeably better skills. I'll quote Kid Nate of bloodyelbow.com here, “Silva should pillage Kyle like a Viking horde on vacation at an Irish monastery in 1066.”

Silva by TKO round 2

Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale

Stephan Bonnar vs Igor Pokrajac

Pokrajac is terrible and Bonnar is over the hill. Why is this the main event? Anyway, even an over the hill and no longer developing Bonnar should take this easily. It will likely be slow moving and boring on the way to a decision though.

Bonnar by decision

Jonathan Brookins vs Michael Johnson

This is a crap shoot just like all Ultimate Fighter Championship matches are. What we saw on the show and in the house doesn't much matter. There was no training camp there like there was here. Flip a coin and it comes up...

Brookins by decision

Kendall Grove vs Demian Maia

Grove is a possible upset winner here. Maia despite his reputation hasn't looked quite the same since getting his clock cleaned by Nate Marquart at UFC 102 in August 2009. His take downs that he was getting before haven't been there and his standup, while improving, still isn't great. Grove is inconsistent, but I think he will stuff the take down and then take a close controversial decision on the feet.

Grove by decision

Rick Story vs Johny Hendricks

Both are about equal in overall talent. Hendricks is the better wrestler though. Under those circumstances, always go with the wrestler by decision.

Hendricks by decision

Leonard Garcia vs Nam Phan

Is Phan significantly better than Garcia? No. Can Phan finish Garcia? No. Then Phan will lose because nearly every close decision that Garcia is involved in goes to Garcia.

Garcia by decision.

Fighting Fridays – UFC 121 Preview

One of the biggest UFC events of the year is tomorrow night though it has received very little coverage and hype in the mainstream media compared to previous Brock Lesnar title defenses.

Main Event – Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez

Lesnar is a huge beast of a fighter, but he only survived Carwin because of better cardio and that won't be a huge advantage here. I think Velasquez will frustrate Lesnar because of his excellent defensive wrestling and win decisively in the stand up eventually leading to a finish on the ground in the championship rounds.

Cain Velasquez by TKO round 4

Jake Shields vs Martin Kampmann

Kampmann has been close to a title shot before but blew it by having a bad gameplan against Paul Daley. Here, the problem won't be the gameplan but the opponent. Shields is going to control this fight and might actually get a finish with elbows on the ground available to him again after fighting in Strikeforce where elbow can't be used.

Shields by TKO round 2

Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago

Sanchez has been overrated for quite some time and while Thiago is no world-beater, he is much better than Sanchez at this weight. That said, Sanchez has a chance if he can find some power, but with him openly talking about dropping back to 155, there is no way he wins here.

Thiago by decision

Matt Hamill vs Tito Ortiz

Ortiz isn't healthy. I'm not buying his statement that he is, and even if he is, there is that pesky ring rust thing to deal with. With no explosiveness, Ortiz can't work his takedowns and Hamill wins the fight in a boring decision.

Hamill by decision

Gabriel Gonzaga vs Brendan Schaub

Schaub is no top caliber heavyweight. Only top level heavyweights beat Gonzaga. That said, this fight involves Gabriel Gonzaga. It won't get out of round one no matter the winner.

Gonzaga by submission round 1

Ryan Jensen vs Court McGee

When in doubt, use the Joe Silva principle. The winner of this fight is whoever UFC matchmaker Joe Silva thinks in more marketable. McGee as an Ultimate Fighter winner is that guy.

McGee by decision

Patrick Cote vs Tom Lawlor

Cote is still recovering from his injuries suffered to his knee in the Anderson Silva fight, but that won't matter here. Lawlor isn't very good and Cote is an ex title challenger.

Cote by TKO round 2

Fighting Fridays: UFC 120 Preview

UFC 120 airs Saturday night on tape delay on Spike TV. Here is a preview of the three relevant fights on the main card.

Main Event: Michael Bisping vs Yoshihiro Akiyama
Let me start this by saying I like Akiyama. He always comes to fight and is in entertaining scraps. That said, this is going to be too much for him. I know the dangers of looking at MMAth but Chris Leben was steamrolled by Bisping while on steroids a couple of years ago while a presumably clean (and therefore not as good) version of Leben upset Akiyama only two weeks after fighting previously. Bisping, while lacking power, is a more well-rounded fighter who is truly dangerous on the ground while Akiyama would probably fair much better in the welterweight division where he wouldn’t be such a small guy.
Bisping wins by unanimous decision

Co-Main Event: Dan Hardy vs Carlos Condit
I am also a big fan of Condit. He always brings it just as Akiyama does. The difference here is that Condit is better than Akiyama and drew a much better matchup in the wrestling deficient Hardy. I expect Condit to try his luck standing and get tagged but not knocked out before taking things to the ground. Once on the ground, Condit will control this fight and ultimately get the submission that Greg Jackson teammate Georges St. Pierre could not.
Condit by submission Round 2

John Hathaway vs Mike Pyle
Hathaway burst onto the scene by destroying Diego Sanchez so bad that Sanchez finally went crawling back to Greg Jackson’s camp. Here, Hathaway is the prohibitive favorite at home and while he won’t finish Pyle, he will never be in any real danger of losing the fight.

Fighting Fridays – Strikeforce: Diaz vs Noons 2

Below is the first fight between the two fought for Elite XC's 160 pound title and won by Noons via doctor's stoppage for a cut.

What can be gleamed from the first fight?

Noons was getting the better of Diaz in the standup game as can be expected from someone with his standup pedigree as a semi-successful boxer and kickboxer. Despite being a primarily stand up fighter, Noons was able to stuff Diaz's takedowns and even hit the knee that opened the fight ending cut on Diaz when Diaz was shooting for the takedown. Also, Noons was able to get up from the ground the one time the fight went there.

What can be thrown out?

Diaz had surgery not long after that fight and his cut problems (he had been opened up many times before that fight) have gone away. Diaz has also greatly improved his boxing game since then neglecting the ground game but not needing it in his long win streak since that fight. Diaz also seemed to lack explosiveness in the first fight, but that was fought closer to Noons ideal weight at 160 pounds. This fight will be at a more Diaz-friendly weight of 170.

What else will affect this fight?

Gas tank Noons has never been really deep into a fight in MMA. How will he react and will his gas tank hold up against the superior conditioning of Diaz in the 4^th and 5^th rounds? How will the jump in weight affect Noons. Noons has never fought above 160 in his MMA career. This fight is being fought at 170. Will the extra weight hinder him in any way and will he be execute the same gameplan as the first fight when Diaz isn't sapped from a difficult weight cut.

The pick: Noons by TKO, Round 3.

I think Noons is a very live underdog here and I believe he will win this fight. Diaz is the better overall fighter, but this is a bad matchup.

Picks for other main card bouts:

Sarah Kaufman over Marloes Coenen

Josh Thomson over Gesias “JZ” Cavalcante

Tyron Woodley over Andre Galvao

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Fighting Fridays - WEC 51 Review

Jose Aldo may end up the best ever in MMA – Aldo destroyed Manny Gamburyan last night. It took a round to get going and then it was over. Combined with the leg kick fest that was the Faber fight, finishing Mike Brown and the double knee knockout of Cub Swanson, Aldo is on a roll like nothing we have seen since Anderson Silva's first few UFC fights. It's too bad he isn't getting the exposure of the UFC since he might be the best fighter in the world. After a couple more dominant wins, it may be time for Aldo to change weight classes. The only problem to getting more dominant wins is a current lack of challengers.

On second thought, the Korean Zombie-Garcia fight from earlier this year was even more sloppy than everyone thought it was in the first place – Jung (the Korean Zombie) was knocked out in spectacular fashion against George Roop. Roop's headkick was a thing of beauty, but it was allowed by Jung's lack of defense. Jung has an incredible chin, but even the best of chins can only take so much damage before failing. As for Garcia, he just looked awful in the final two rounds against Mark Hominick. He strayed from the gameplan (if in fact there was one) and swung for the fences only hitting air most of the time. Even when he did connect after the first round, he was usually eating two punches to land one.

Cerrone-Varner needs to end before Cerrone does something really stupid – Cerrone won the fight and Varner immediately offered a rematch to finish the trilogy. That should not be made anytime soon. Cerrone, while an entertaining fighter, is likely to do something that leaves a black mark on the sport if that fight is made because of his hatred of Varner. To recap last night, Cerrone won the fight and Varner tried to bury the hatchet as has been done in many heated trash talking feuds such as Penn-Sherk and Hughes-Serra. Cerrone wanted none of it and shoved Varner away with his forearm. Considering that Cerrone is the man who said he wanted to kill Varner in the cage a few weeks ago, this is not behavior that should be tolerated and it certainly shouldn't come up again in a few short months. If there is a 3^rd fight to be made between these two, make it be earned by one of them winning the title and the other earning his way back to number one contender status.

This night was a good night of fights in general, but bad by WEC standards – It seemed watching the fights that there was no true standout like there has been in the past. It was exciting but there was a meh factor here especially with nobody at all thinking there was any chance for Aldo to lose.

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Fighting Fridays – How to fix the lack of finishes in MMA

Lately, there have been many high-profile MMA matches that have been boring and haven't had any finality other than a nullification of offense by one allowing positional control and nothing more to dictate the winner of the fight (usually by a wrestler but not always). Recent examples of this include Josh Koscheck-Paul Daley, Gray Maynard-Kenny Florian, Frankie Edgar-BJ Penn, Gilbert Melendez-Shinya Aoki and the Nik Lentz-Andre Winner fight that may have cost the UFC thousands of pay per view buys (just as the sloppy but entertaining Leonard Garcia-Chan Sang Jung fight helped gain thousands of buys for the WEC pay per view). This is a look at how to make it better while.

3 things to do to help fix the problem

1. Finishing bonuses instead of win bonuses – The best way encourage finishes is to change the way it works. Jon Fitch makes lots of money by winning. He makes half that if he loses. What if it changed and instead he only makes his show money if he doesn't finish the fight. I think at that point he would make the attempt to finish instead of riding out decision after decision. To combat complaining, the usually discretionary locker room bonuses that many fighters receive should be reserved for those fighters who make every effort to finish but can't for some reason. Remember the St. Pierre-Fitch fight. Fitch was destroyed in that fight and St. Pierre threw the kitchen sink at him trying to finish and Fitch withstood it. It happens. At the same time, many of Fitch's wins over the past few years have been strike for a minute, get a take down, hold him down, rinse and repeat in each round, get a unanimous decision.
2. Change judging criteria or the judges – Each round should be judged by damage done. If the guy on the bottom does more damage, he should win the round, not the guy who took someone down and did nothing with it. The fact that Clay Guida actually won on one card in his fight against Diego Sanchez last year is a travesty. Also, pushing a guy against the cage and nullifying offense while doing no damage in a round (ala Randy Couture-Brandon Vera) should result in a 10-10 round, not a 10-9 round in favor of the staller.
3. Stand fighters up if they stall on the ground from top position – This should be self-explanatory. With the rules that are in place, there are rules against stalling. The most common place where this happens is on the ground. While this leaves the interpretation open to the referee, it is better than the ride out a decision mentality that seems to have infected top level MMA. Especially with the wrestlers at this point, there is a problem. They have trained so long in wrestling that they get into positions and just stall from top position knowing it will get them a win, just like in their amateur days. That needs to be stopped.

3 things not to do

1. Yellow cards – Many people lover the Pride Fighting Championships in Japan. One reason is that there was always action going on in the ring in part because of the yellow card system. Stall too long and get yellow carded resulting in a standup on when on the ground and a 10% purse reduction. This would not work under athletic commission rules though and there would be many issues along the way with the referee having too much power. The ability to stand fighters up is one thing, but being able to take their money too would be way too much more many fighters to handle.
2. Change the rules to give the ground fighters more tools – Many want 12-6 elbows to the head and some would also like to see headbutts brought back and while MMA is a violent sport, bringing these things back would be a step backwards while still trying to get MMA regulated in many areas. Also, MMA has, to this point, a very good safety record. There is no point in jeopardizing that for some more violence and allowing ground fighters to more easily finish fights while having the losers suffering greater head trauma as a result.
3. Get rid of number one contender matches – Yes, many of these matches have been boring mostly because they have been fought conservatively. Getting rid of them would be a mistake though. I believe putting fighters through them helps the quality of the more important championship matches by putting them through a pressure cooker of a fight before the title is on the line. Sometimes, for whatever reason, there is no need or ability to have a top contender match and that is fine, but getting rid of them, conservatively fought as they have been, would be a disservice.