Day after Bracket thoughts

The most deserving team to make the field is South Florida. The Bulls only won one-game against the top 50 in 11 tries. Also, it lost to Old Dominion (worst Old Dominion team in a long time), Auburn (would be ok as a football loss, in basketball not so much) and Penn St. (ditto Auburn thought). To compound the issue, I have to ask if the committee watched the Notre Dame-South Florida game in the Big East Tournament on Thursday. If they did, there is no way South Florida could possibly be included by the eye test, unless it was an eyesore test. That was the worst non-Pac-12 power conference game I saw all season (to be fair I missed the annual game where somebody in the Big Ten beat Illinois in a game that doesn't reach 45 points for either team).

Thank you to the committee for getting it right about the Pac-12. All season long I have been calling this league the smoking crater. And with good reason. At this point, the only reason the league has a second team in the NCAA Tournament is because Pac-12 money bought enough bad home games that a few of teams had decent RPIs after conference play. As someone who lives in a Pac-12 city, it was horrible. Of course I have to root for Cal in the play-in game though for one simple reason: the game is against South Florida. I implore everyone not to watch. It's going to be abominable.

With the exception of Oral Roberts (who should have been in over South Florida and was the team bumped when St. Bonaventure stole the Atlantic 10 auto-bid on Sunday morning), nobody has even close to a legit beef about being left out of this field. As for Oral Roberts, it's not their fault Xavier's whole team was suspended after brawling when they beat them, staining the main quality win. Also, I wouldn't argue this case except that Iona has basically the same case from a weaker conference (not that Iona's conference tourney champ is a 15 while Oral Roberts' is a 14) and Iona got in.

The bubble teams were awful this year, especially from the power conferences. Let's be realistic here. That the likes of Northwestern, Washington, and Seton Hall were within a hundred miles of the bubble shows how bad this season was at the bubble level. The top teams are really good this year. The level below them down to the 8 seeds is also better than usual. Everybody else stinks. That's not to say there won't be upsets. It's just that very few of them will come from power conference teams at that level.

The committee missed on a few seeds. Memphis and Creighton are underseeded. Both should be 7's (and therefore avoid top seeds in round 2 though there isn't a big difference between the ones and twos this season unless you are in Syracuse or Kentucky's bracket). Notre Dame and Florida both should be 8's, just to offer a solution. The Irish played in that God-awful game against South Florida mentioned earlier. That alone should be punishment of a seed line. Florida, though talented, just hasn't put it together this season at all. The gators are way overrated, even on the 7 seed line.

Obviously that 14 for the play-in winner has to do with BYU's bizarre bracketing guidelines, but it is unfair for Marquette. As a 3 the Golden Eagles will get an at-large team, something that has never happened in tournament history. And though some will argue, at-large teams are pretty much always better than the usual riffraff that fills the 14 line (though this season might be a notable exception with South Dakota St., St. Bonaventure and Belmont on that line as well).

Final Four Picks

South – Kentucky

Comeon. Unless you think Wichita St. is going to shoot the lights out from 3 in the Sweet 16, there is no credible case to be made for any other teams here despite some talented rosters. Iowa St. lacks perimeter talent. Connecticut lacks chemistry and won't find it by round 2. Indiana has to beat Wichita St. at less than full strength and barely beat Kentucky at home at full strength in a game where they maxed out their potential. That won't happen again. From the other side does anyone expect inconsistent UNLV or Baylor to be able to beat Kentucky in what would have the be the 4^th consecutive well-played for either team. And Duke can't defend teams with athletic guards or post players. What is Kentucky built on? Athletic guards and post players.

East – Vanderbilt

The Commodores toughest game likely will be the first one. If Vandy beats Harvard, what remains are a bunch of teams where Vandy is the worst matchup possible from its seed line or any surrounding it. The Commodores have more than enough outside shooting to blow up the Syracuse zone, especially if the Orange continue to give up offensive rebounds at an alarming rate. Before Syracuse, Wisconsin won't be able to score enough to beat Vandy. In the Elite 8, either Ohio St. with no outside shooting and a center that can be taken off his game or hot and cold Florida St. await. I pick Vandy in either game.

Midwest – Kansas

I just can't bring myself to pick this year's North Carolina team. They look an awful lot like the UConn team that lost to George Mason in 2006 (a game Mason had no business winning). Given that, I think the consistent team (Kansas) will win if they play though North Carolina could be ripe for an early exit, even against an easy draw.

West – Missouri

The Tigers have the best guards in the country. They also have Ricardo Ratliffe. Ratliffe's presence will allow Missouri to pound a litany of guard oriented rosters on the way to the Elite 8 as Florida in round 2 and either Marquette or Murray St. in the Sweet 16 won't be able to stop Ratliffe and all of the guards. From there it will be a game against a defense oriented team (either Michigan St., Louisville or New Mexico). That spells trouble for the defense oriented team as no team has stopped the Missouri guards all season and those teams aren't built to outscore Missouri.

National Champ – Kentucky

Full disclosure. My bracket won't have Kentucky, but that is only because everyone is going to pick Kentucky. I want to win my various bracket contests and picking the correct champion while everyone else in the field picks the favorite is a good way to do it if the favorite doesn't win. If the favorite wins, its likely I'm not winning anyway. That said, Kentucky is the best team. Nobody really has answers except for Vanderbilt and I can't bring myself to pick Vanderbilt over Kansas in the Final Four so Kentucky will win. Easily. Anthony Davis is just that good.

NCAA Tournament Weekend Review

The Big East was overrated, but there was no way to know in advance and take less teams from the league – With only two of the 11 conference teams that made the tournament in the Sweet 16, the Big East has had an awful tournament thus far. Even worse, both Big East teams that made the Sweet 16 did so by beating conference rivals in round two. Even if those teams would have been in the Sweet 16 anyway (and that is almost certainly the case with UConn), it looks bad for the league. That said, the non-conference results early are what set the Big East up for the 11 bid season. There was no way to tell that Big East teams were overrated when they were steamrolling early tournament fields in New York, Orlando and Maui and winning big nationally televised games all over the place. Who knew that the matchups at that point were all generally so favorable?

Florida suddenly looks a lot like the 2006 team – The Gators surprised almost everyone (I actually did pick the Gators) in winning the national title in 2006 as a three seed. This season, there was collective shock that Florida got a two seed, but they have looked very good. Plenty of inside scoring and a point guard who can take the game over have set Florida up. The win over UCLA is particularly impressive considering the Bruins played a pretty good game and it didn't matter. Add to that a suddenly easier draw with top-seed Pitt out and you have a team that can reach the Final Four. Get any coach with two titles to the Final Four and I'll take my chances.

The ACC was better than previously thought – No the close wins by Duke and North Carolina aren't the proof of that though a loss by either in their close Sunday games would have greatly changed this entry. Clemson's performance back on Thursday against West Virginia on short-rest and Florida St.'s Sweet 16 run are the things that have convinced me. Now, with three teams all favorites in the Sweet 16, there is the possibility of three ACC teams in the Elite 8.

Kansas better reach the Final Four – The Jayhawks have watched the draw open like nothing anyone sees. Normally if a draw opens like this, it is because the top seed lost, not everybody else of regular season consequence. Now, Kansas has to beat a 12 seed and either a 10 or an 11. Shouldn't be too hard for what is nearly everyone's National Champ or National Runner-up.

Kentucky needs to avoid conventional wisdom – Conventional wisdom (and many analyst on both ESPN and the CBS/Turner collaboration) says the way to stop Ohio St. is to stop Jared Sullinger in the paint and take him out of the game. Wrong. Don't double Sullinger. You get lit up from outside if you do. Penn St. tried it late in the regular season and watch Jon Diebler hit 10 threes. Wisconsin did to finish the regular season and watched Ohio St. shoot 14-15 from the 3-point line. George Mason tried it too and watched the Buckeyes blow them off the court with 16 threes. Let Sullinger get his points. It's the only chance since all of Ohio St.'s shooters seem to be in a zone right now. It's better to give up two to Sullinger rather than three to the shooters and still watch Sullinger get his points too.

San Diego St. needs to play better – The Aztecs are plenty good enough to win the West Region if they play well, but they have to play much better. Nothing like the Temple game that was excruciating to watch on Saturday afternoon. The Aztecs need to shoot better or they will get run out of the gym. The closest team to BYU (with Davies) in personnel is the next opponent: Connecticut, with Kemba Walker playing the Jimmer role.

BYU still has post issues – Without Brandon Davies, BYU has played well in this tournament, but lost in the blowout over Gonzaga is that the Cougars were crushed on the glass again. The blowout was fueled by hot shooting from Jimmer's running mate Jackson Emery opening up the floor for Jimmer. What it means is that BYU is now like so many jump shooting teams that have gone out of the tournament around this point. They can't win if they cold anymore and they certainly won't beat Florida if Emery and Jimmer aren't hitting from outside.

The Final Four will be – Ohio St., Duke, Kansas and Florida

Ohio St. will come out of the East. They are shooting too well to be dethroned by young, largely tournament neophyte teams like Kentucky and North Carolina. Duke will win the West behind Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith. Arizona and San Diego St. don't have the guard play to hang with the Blue Devils and Connecticut is still too dependent on one player to beat Duke with everything on the line. Kansas has an easy draw and will take advantage. The only way I see them losing is if Kevin Anderson goes off for some ridiculous number like 40-45 points for Richmond and can't be stopped. VCU plays at the wrong tempo to threaten Kansas and Florida St. doesn't have enough scoring to top the Jayhawks. Finally, Florida is just better than post-Davies BYU and will likely be facing a tired Wisconsin or Butler team after those teams slug in out Thursday night. Also, Butler doesn't have the inside depth needed to handle Florida and Wisconsin has not beaten a higher seeded team in the tournament since Bo Ryan became the coach there. It won't happen now.

Big East Conference Tournament Preview

The Big East Conference Tournament begins tomorrow in New York. It has a crazy format, at least for a major conference because of the size of the league (16 teams) and the desire to reward teams for strong play in the conference season. Hence, we have the double bye.

Here is the bracket in this crazy monstrosity along with predictions of every game.

First Round Games

Connecticut vs DePaul – UConn has struggled down the stretch but this is as close to a layup as any top team in the country will have in its first conference tournament game. UConn wins big,

Seton Hall vs Rutgers – Seton Hall has underachieved all season, but has come to life in the last week smashing both St. John's and Marquette. That momentum will carry them through this game against scrappy but generally untalented Rutgers.

Villanova vs South Florida – Villanova has been in free fall for awhile now, but even they aren't going to manage to blow this game. South Florida is just a bad basketball team.

Marquette vs Providence – Marquette is in desperation mode and can't afford a loss as the one Big East bubble team at this point. Despite what some say about teams and not conferences earning bids, Marquette may not want to test the limits of the committee by losing. Unfortunately for them, they are playing Marshawn Brooks and Providence. The Friars will defend just enough to pull the upset behind a huge game from their star (who set the conference record for points in a game a couple of weeks ago).

Second Round Games

Georgetown vs Connecticut – Georgetown is also in free fall though it is injury based. Without Chris Wright, the Hoyas aren't beating UConn here.

St. John's vs Seton Hall – St. John's will be ready here after getting stomped by Seton Hall last week. The Red Storm will play well and Seton Hall couldn't possibly shoot as well from 3-point land as they did last week.

Cincinnati vs Villanova – Cincinnati has rounded into form at the same time Villanova has collapsed. Those trends will continue here unless Villanova's guard finally break their shooting slump. They won't.

West Virginia vs Providence – Providence won't defend well enough to win two games in this tournament. Mountaineers win even though the offense still sometimes has issues.

Quarterfinal Games

Pittsburgh vs UConn – Pitt usually plays very well in this tournament and UConn will be playing its third game in three days. The fatigue will set in and Pitt will advance.

Syracuse vs St. John's – Syracuse had a mid-season bobble but has seemingly recovered. I think the Syracuse zone will suffocate St. John's and take the Orange to victory.

Notre Dame vs Cincinnati – Notre Dame is the more-veteran team, the better team, the more-talented team and the team with more to play for (number one seed). That should guide the Irish to an easy win.

Louisville vs West Virginia – A rematch of last weekend's Preston Knowles stupidity game will end with the same result. West Virginia will take confidence from the win last Saturday.

Semifinal Games

Pittsburgh vs Syracuse – This is just an awful matchup for Syracuse as we saw during the season. Pitt will break Syracuse, again.

Notre Dame vs West Virginia – Ditto here except West Virginia has the advantage and the confidence of having beaten Notre Dame a few weeks ago.

Final

Pittsburgh vs West Virginia – Don't mess with a streak. Pittsburgh is the better team but the top seed might be locked up by game time and teams with the double bye don't win this tournament.

Projected Postseason

Pittsburgh – 1 seed

Notre Dame – 2 seed

Louisville – 4 seed

Syracuse – 4 seed

St. John's – 5 seed

West Virginia – 5 seed

Cincinnati – 7 seed

Georgetown – 9 seed

Connecticut – 6 seed

Villanova – 9 seed

Marquette – First Four

Others will miss postseason

Selection Sunday is 3 weeks away – Time to examine the possible tourney field

A couple of weeks ago, I posted the teams that in my opinion are locks. That number has grown by a bit over the last couple of weeks. Today, I will look at the entirety of the bubble though, conference by conference (in order of conference strength). There are 37 at-large bids and 31 automatic qualifiers making a field of 68 teams. Assuming right now that teams that are locked will win conference tournaments, there are 20 spots available for non-locks. This is a ridiculously soft-bubble and any team that doesn't get in has no right to complain (though Seth Greenberg of Virginia Tech will probably stage his annual cry-fest after being excluded as one of the last teams out, again).

Big East

Locks: Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Connecticut, Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia and St. John's

Currently in the tourney: Cincinnati, Marquette

Still alive but on the outs: none

The Big East looks very good for 10 teams and very well might keep all bids currently assigned to it. The winner of the Cincinnati-Marquette game on March 2 is almost certainly going and as long as there is no collapse, the other looks good though Cincinnati has a brutal schedule from here out that could leave them on the outside. If you believe that the committee might not want to invite so many teams from one league, the loser of that March 2 game might be screwed.

Big 12

Locks: Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M

Currently in the tourney: Missouri, Kansas St., Nebraska

Still alive but on the outs: Baylor

Yes, I have both Kansas St. and Nebraska in the field right now, but both have work to do to stay there. Baylor would likely be in Nebraska's spot had they not lost to Texas Tech on Saturday. Realistically, the Bears can still play their way in, but this is a six-bid league. Missouri is probably the closest thing to a lock not classified as such. Losing out would tempt fate.

Big 10

Locks: Ohio St., Purdue, Wisconsin

Currently in the tourney: Michigan St.

Still alive but on the outs: Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan

Michigan St. only has one bad loss (the blowout at Iowa) and over half of its 14 wins are against the top 100 in the RPI. Minnesota has an injury issue at point guard and they have shown they are not an NCAA Tournament team since the injuries occurred. Illinois has a very similar profile to the one that got them left out despite a truckload of quality wins last year. The Illini have wins over North Carolina and Wisconsin to carry them but are hung with an albatross of a loss against Illinois-Chicago (6-22, 291 RPI). They also are staring at two more almost certain losses with road games against Ohio St. and Purdue remaining. 20-13 and a loss in the Big Ten quarters isn't going to cut it.

ACC

Locks: Duke, North Carolina

Currently in the tourney: Florida St., Boston College

Still alive but on the outs: Virginia Tech, Clemson

Florida St. has injury issues just like Minnesota, but they have responded better meaning their entire profile hasn't been invalidated. Boston College was one of my last teams in so there is much work to be done. Virginia Tech and Clemson submarined themselves with awful losses last week. The Hokies completed getting swept by Virginia while Clemson lost to NC State. Ouch.

SEC

Locks: Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Currently in the tourney: Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama

Still alive but on the outs: none

Alabama gets in because there is no way a 13-3 power conference team possibly gets left out of the field and the Crimson Tide are likely going to finish there (the won't win at Florida). With Alabama in the field, there are no bubble teams on the outside right now though Tennessee is getting close to Illinois profile territory.

Pac-10

Locks: Arizona

Currently in the tourney: UCLA, Washington

Still alive but on the outs: Washington St.

UCLA and Washington both took losses over the weekend making their upcoming game in a couple of weeks that much bigger. Arizona continues to steam towards a possible protected seed after beating Washington. Sweep the LA schools this week and a top four seed becomes a real possibility, an unthinkable thought in this league on January 1.

Mountain West

Locks: BYU, San Diego St.

Currently in the tourney: UNLV

Still alive but on the outs: Colorado St.

UNLV got the big road win over Colorado St. they needed to stay 3^rd in the league pecking order. Now the attention turns to Saturday's nationally televised CBS showdown between BYU and San Diego St. The world that has only seen highlights finally gets to watch The Jimmer play! Trust me, its worth tuning for.

Atlantic-10

Locks: Xavier, Temple

Currently in the tourney: none

Still alive but on the outs: Duquesne, Dayton, Richmond

Temple moves up to the lock line after winning all its games lately. The others beyond the top two are on life support at this point and are near dropping off of this list entirely. It looks like the only way this league is matching last year's three bids is a bid-stealer in the conference tournament.

CAA

Currently in the tourney: George Mason, Old Dominion

Still alive but on the outs: VCU

This league got a ton of help on BracketBuster weekend. All three top teams won making the regular season champion a lock for the field. Of course we don't know who will be the regular season champ will be though George Mason looks likely at this point. Old Dominion has a very good profile and looks solid right now while VCU has the weakest at-large profile, they are holding a bubble comparison victory over UCLA.

Conference-USA

Currently in the tourney:

Still alive but on the outs: Memphis, UTEP, UAB, Southern Miss

This league could end up with two bids or one. It all depends on the conference tournament. There is likely an at-large here for the champ, or for Memphis if they finish second and lose the conference tourney final to UTEP (the conference tourney is at UTEP).

Horizon

Currently in the tourney: Butler

Still alive but on the outs: Cleveland St., Valparaiso

Butler sneaks back in the field after being left for dead a few weeks ago. Valpo hasn't gotten any love as an at-large, but with an RPI that has now snuck into the top 50 and the current lead in the conference standings, maybe the Crusaders aren't as far off as everyone thinks.

Missouri Valley

Currently in the tourney: none

Still alive but on the outs: Missouri St., Wichita St.

This league probably had its at-large hopes extinguished after getting steamrolled during the BracketBuster weekend. The best hope it probably a Missouri St. sweep to the final only to lose to Wichita St. there.

WCC

Currently in the tourney: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Still alive but on the outs: none

St. Mary's committed profile assassination last week with its two losses. Had they won both games, they would be one home win against Gonzaga this week from lockdom. Instead, the Gonzaga game is a who can stay in the field game.

WAC

Currently in the tourney: Utah St.

Still alive but on the outs: none

Utah St. got the win they needed against St. Mary's. With the quality win, a run to the WAC final should be enough though the Aggies probably shouldn't tempt fate, especially if St. Mary's collapse continues.