The most deserving team to make the field is South Florida. The Bulls only won one-game against the top 50 in 11 tries. Also, it lost to Old Dominion (worst Old Dominion team in a long time), Auburn (would be ok as a football loss, in basketball not so much) and Penn St. (ditto Auburn thought). To compound the issue, I have to ask if the committee watched the Notre Dame-South Florida game in the Big East Tournament on Thursday. If they did, there is no way South Florida could possibly be included by the eye test, unless it was an eyesore test. That was the worst non-Pac-12 power conference game I saw all season (to be fair I missed the annual game where somebody in the Big Ten beat Illinois in a game that doesn't reach 45 points for either team).
Thank you to the committee for getting it right about the Pac-12. All season long I have been calling this league the smoking crater. And with good reason. At this point, the only reason the league has a second team in the NCAA Tournament is because Pac-12 money bought enough bad home games that a few of teams had decent RPIs after conference play. As someone who lives in a Pac-12 city, it was horrible. Of course I have to root for Cal in the play-in game though for one simple reason: the game is against South Florida. I implore everyone not to watch. It's going to be abominable.
With the exception of Oral Roberts (who should have been in over South Florida and was the team bumped when St. Bonaventure stole the Atlantic 10 auto-bid on Sunday morning), nobody has even close to a legit beef about being left out of this field. As for Oral Roberts, it's not their fault Xavier's whole team was suspended after brawling when they beat them, staining the main quality win. Also, I wouldn't argue this case except that Iona has basically the same case from a weaker conference (not that Iona's conference tourney champ is a 15 while Oral Roberts' is a 14) and Iona got in.
The bubble teams were awful this year, especially from the power conferences. Let's be realistic here. That the likes of Northwestern, Washington, and Seton Hall were within a hundred miles of the bubble shows how bad this season was at the bubble level. The top teams are really good this year. The level below them down to the 8 seeds is also better than usual. Everybody else stinks. That's not to say there won't be upsets. It's just that very few of them will come from power conference teams at that level.
The committee missed on a few seeds. Memphis and Creighton are underseeded. Both should be 7's (and therefore avoid top seeds in round 2 though there isn't a big difference between the ones and twos this season unless you are in Syracuse or Kentucky's bracket). Notre Dame and Florida both should be 8's, just to offer a solution. The Irish played in that God-awful game against South Florida mentioned earlier. That alone should be punishment of a seed line. Florida, though talented, just hasn't put it together this season at all. The gators are way overrated, even on the 7 seed line.
Obviously that 14 for the play-in winner has to do with BYU's bizarre bracketing guidelines, but it is unfair for Marquette. As a 3 the Golden Eagles will get an at-large team, something that has never happened in tournament history. And though some will argue, at-large teams are pretty much always better than the usual riffraff that fills the 14 line (though this season might be a notable exception with South Dakota St., St. Bonaventure and Belmont on that line as well).
Final Four Picks
South – Kentucky
Comeon. Unless you think Wichita St. is going to shoot the lights out from 3 in the Sweet 16, there is no credible case to be made for any other teams here despite some talented rosters. Iowa St. lacks perimeter talent. Connecticut lacks chemistry and won't find it by round 2. Indiana has to beat Wichita St. at less than full strength and barely beat Kentucky at home at full strength in a game where they maxed out their potential. That won't happen again. From the other side does anyone expect inconsistent UNLV or Baylor to be able to beat Kentucky in what would have the be the 4th consecutive well-played for either team. And Duke can't defend teams with athletic guards or post players. What is Kentucky built on? Athletic guards and post players.
East – Vanderbilt
The Commodores toughest game likely will be the first one. If Vandy beats Harvard, what remains are a bunch of teams where Vandy is the worst matchup possible from its seed line or any surrounding it. The Commodores have more than enough outside shooting to blow up the Syracuse zone, especially if the Orange continue to give up offensive rebounds at an alarming rate. Before Syracuse, Wisconsin won't be able to score enough to beat Vandy. In the Elite 8, either Ohio St. with no outside shooting and a center that can be taken off his game or hot and cold Florida St. await. I pick Vandy in either game.
Midwest – Kansas
I just can't bring myself to pick this year's North Carolina team. They look an awful lot like the UConn team that lost to George Mason in 2006 (a game Mason had no business winning). Given that, I think the consistent team (Kansas) will win if they play though North Carolina could be ripe for an early exit, even against an easy draw.
West – Missouri
The Tigers have the best guards in the country. They also have Ricardo Ratliffe. Ratliffe's presence will allow Missouri to pound a litany of guard oriented rosters on the way to the Elite 8 as Florida in round 2 and either Marquette or Murray St. in the Sweet 16 won't be able to stop Ratliffe and all of the guards. From there it will be a game against a defense oriented team (either Michigan St., Louisville or New Mexico). That spells trouble for the defense oriented team as no team has stopped the Missouri guards all season and those teams aren't built to outscore Missouri.
National Champ – Kentucky
Full disclosure. My bracket won't have Kentucky, but that is only because everyone is going to pick Kentucky. I want to win my various bracket contests and picking the correct champion while everyone else in the field picks the favorite is a good way to do it if the favorite doesn't win. If the favorite wins, its likely I'm not winning anyway. That said, Kentucky is the best team. Nobody really has answers except for Vanderbilt and I can't bring myself to pick Vanderbilt over Kansas in the Final Four so Kentucky will win. Easily. Anthony Davis is just that good.
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