The Big East was overrated, but there was no way to know in advance and take less teams from the league – With only two of the 11 conference teams that made the tournament in the Sweet 16, the Big East has had an awful tournament thus far. Even worse, both Big East teams that made the Sweet 16 did so by beating conference rivals in round two. Even if those teams would have been in the Sweet 16 anyway (and that is almost certainly the case with UConn), it looks bad for the league. That said, the non-conference results early are what set the Big East up for the 11 bid season. There was no way to tell that Big East teams were overrated when they were steamrolling early tournament fields in New York, Orlando and Maui and winning big nationally televised games all over the place. Who knew that the matchups at that point were all generally so favorable?
Florida suddenly looks a lot like the 2006 team – The Gators surprised almost everyone (I actually did pick the Gators) in winning the national title in 2006 as a three seed. This season, there was collective shock that Florida got a two seed, but they have looked very good. Plenty of inside scoring and a point guard who can take the game over have set Florida up. The win over UCLA is particularly impressive considering the Bruins played a pretty good game and it didn't matter. Add to that a suddenly easier draw with top-seed Pitt out and you have a team that can reach the Final Four. Get any coach with two titles to the Final Four and I'll take my chances.
The ACC was better than previously thought – No the close wins by Duke and North Carolina aren't the proof of that though a loss by either in their close Sunday games would have greatly changed this entry. Clemson's performance back on Thursday against West Virginia on short-rest and Florida St.'s Sweet 16 run are the things that have convinced me. Now, with three teams all favorites in the Sweet 16, there is the possibility of three ACC teams in the Elite 8.
Kansas better reach the Final Four – The Jayhawks have watched the draw open like nothing anyone sees. Normally if a draw opens like this, it is because the top seed lost, not everybody else of regular season consequence. Now, Kansas has to beat a 12 seed and either a 10 or an 11. Shouldn't be too hard for what is nearly everyone's National Champ or National Runner-up.
Kentucky needs to avoid conventional wisdom – Conventional wisdom (and many analyst on both ESPN and the CBS/Turner collaboration) says the way to stop Ohio St. is to stop Jared Sullinger in the paint and take him out of the game. Wrong. Don't double Sullinger. You get lit up from outside if you do. Penn St. tried it late in the regular season and watch Jon Diebler hit 10 threes. Wisconsin did to finish the regular season and watched Ohio St. shoot 14-15 from the 3-point line. George Mason tried it too and watched the Buckeyes blow them off the court with 16 threes. Let Sullinger get his points. It's the only chance since all of Ohio St.'s shooters seem to be in a zone right now. It's better to give up two to Sullinger rather than three to the shooters and still watch Sullinger get his points too.
San Diego St. needs to play better – The Aztecs are plenty good enough to win the West Region if they play well, but they have to play much better. Nothing like the Temple game that was excruciating to watch on Saturday afternoon. The Aztecs need to shoot better or they will get run out of the gym. The closest team to BYU (with Davies) in personnel is the next opponent: Connecticut, with Kemba Walker playing the Jimmer role.
BYU still has post issues – Without Brandon Davies, BYU has played well in this tournament, but lost in the blowout over Gonzaga is that the Cougars were crushed on the glass again. The blowout was fueled by hot shooting from Jimmer's running mate Jackson Emery opening up the floor for Jimmer. What it means is that BYU is now like so many jump shooting teams that have gone out of the tournament around this point. They can't win if they cold anymore and they certainly won't beat Florida if Emery and Jimmer aren't hitting from outside.
The Final Four will be – Ohio St., Duke, Kansas and Florida
Ohio St. will come out of the East. They are shooting too well to be dethroned by young, largely tournament neophyte teams like Kentucky and North Carolina. Duke will win the West behind Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith. Arizona and San Diego St. don't have the guard play to hang with the Blue Devils and Connecticut is still too dependent on one player to beat Duke with everything on the line. Kansas has an easy draw and will take advantage. The only way I see them losing is if Kevin Anderson goes off for some ridiculous number like 40-45 points for Richmond and can't be stopped. VCU plays at the wrong tempo to threaten Kansas and Florida St. doesn't have enough scoring to top the Jayhawks. Finally, Florida is just better than post-Davies BYU and will likely be facing a tired Wisconsin or Butler team after those teams slug in out Thursday night. Also, Butler doesn't have the inside depth needed to handle Florida and Wisconsin has not beaten a higher seeded team in the tournament since Bo Ryan became the coach there. It won't happen now.
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