A Decision That Had To Be Made

So the United States finally fired National Team coach Bob Bradley. It took long enough for the powers that be at US Soccer to figure it out. Now, before I get going, I thought Bradley was a great coach for the US when he originally took the job. I also think he did a very good job at the helm of the US National Team, a team that, for all intents and purposes is like coaching Ole Miss in the SEC. The fans want success like a powerhouse while only possessing the talent and resources of a middle of the pack team. With the exception of those nations that can legitametly think about winning the World Cup in every single cycle (Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Italy), only the England job seems as difficult to meet fan expectations as the US job is. Needless to say, this is a difficult job and Bradley did a very good job with it.

Considering I liked Bradley as coach, why then did I start with saying words like finally and it took long enough to describe his firing. Those sentiments are gleamed from what I know in world soccer. And what I know is that coaches leading the same country into consecutive World Cups rarely do as well on the second trip and many do much worse than the presumed worst case scenario (just look at 2006 World Cup Final combatants France and Italy who both experienced among their worst World Cup tournaments ever in 2010 under the same coach). For that matter, the US should have learned from their own mistakes from 2002-2006. Bruce Arena remained employed by the US after his stunning success in 2002 reaching the quarterfinals. Then it all came undone in 2006 with only one gutsy performance aided by an own goad against Italy to show for that cycle. So knowing that, I was in favor of sending Bradley off to a nice club managing job somewhere (whether it be MLS or in England where his tactics are much more appreciated than they are here) instead of retaining him for another World Cup cycle.

On the positive side for the US side, Bradley's apprach became stale and the US results faltered well before they did under Arena leading up to 2006. This allowed US Soccer to get rid of Bradley with plenty of time to get a new program in order before World Cup qualifying begins. Heck, whoever the new coach is pretty much is starting anew at this point. The only drawback is no trip to the Confederations Cup in 2013 because of the ugly defeat to Mexico in the Gold Cup final.

Despite it being a firing, today should be a good day for US Soccer. As long as the new coach can figure out a solution to the long running left-back problem, the United States should be just fine as far as qualifying for the World Cup. The team also should advance out of the group stage again as long as they are not drawn into some sort of Group of Death like 2006. Will the team reach the quarterfinals again like in 2002? It's not likely. For one thing, even if rival Mexico were to somehow await in round 2 like then, the US talent level is no longer equal with Mexico's. The US would need an epically open draw, even moreso than the 2010 World Cup appeared to be to reach that far. At this point, we as a country need to have realistic expectations. Those should start with make round 2 and see what happens, not do better every single time. We don't have the talent base or the financial commitment for those kind of expectations.

World Cup Final Preview

We have reached the final and, as predicted right here on the AubieVegas blog, it is Netherlands vs Spain. Needless to say I am sticking with my original pick of a Dutch win. Here are three reasons why they will win along with two why they may not.

Reasons why the Netherlands will win
1. Wesley Sneijder might be the best player in the world. No that is not heresy in the Messi-Ronaldo realm. If Sneijder wins here, he will be the World Player of the Year. Consider he would have assisted on two goals in the Champions League final, been the best player on an Inter Milan club that won the treble and then been the leading scorer and best player on the World Cup champion. Sneijer is playing for history here and it won't overwhelm him.

2. Arjen Robben has finally overcome his injury issues. Robben has been very well thought of for a long time except for injuries that he finally seemed to get past at Bayern Munich this last season. While not 100 percent early in the tournament, he has rounded into form looking especially dangerous against Brazil and Uruguay. His runs from the flanks could be the thing that finally breaks the Spanish defense.

3. The Dutch defense is actually competent. Remember the great Dutch attacking teams of the 90s. What was their problem. The defense was awful. The Dutch attack had to be great even for survival and when it lagged just a little bit in 2001, the Netherlands missed the World Cup entirely. This unit, while not great, is finally good enough to prop the offense up i the case of a bad day and it doesn't even need a superhuman goalkeeping performance like it needed in years past either. Spain will not find this team easy to break down.

Reasons why the Netherlands could lose to Spain
1. The Spanish midfield is simply incredible. Being able to leave Andres Iniesta on the bench to start games is a incredible luxury. The Spanish have incredible depth. This also means they can mix and match at forward to determine the best course of action whether that be David Villa, Fernando Torres, both, or someone else (not likely save for injury)

2. The Dutch always choke. Scoring just two minutes into the game on a penalty against West Germany in the 1974 final then not threatening again despite some of the best offensive talent ever. The 1998 loss to Brazil where they dominated the game and looked like Brazil, except in their finishing. Blowing countless European Championships despite having the best team. I could keep going, but I won't. Just know that they have tried and won despite themselves this time. Late goals conceded and un-Dutch like defensive postures have made things more difficult than it really has had to be and expect this to be the same. It could be the undoing.

Final Prediction: Netherlands 2, Spain 1 (Extra Time, no penalties)

World Cup QF Preview + Rankings

We have our World Cup quarterfinals set to begin in the morning with Brazil-Netherlands in the match that I believe will produce the tournament winner. In these quarterfinals, we have a good mix of traditional powers and interlopers with one former power resurgent.

Let's get to the power rankings. Remember that these are to this point in the tournament. I believe the Netherlands are going to win the tournament, but they haven't been the most impressive team meaning they aren't number one here... yet

1. Argentina - The machine rolls on. Despite getting a controversial goal to open the scoring against Mexico, Argentina was clearly the better team and deserved to win. Messi has been driving this team despite not scoring. What happens if he starts to find the bag of the net?
2. Brazil - Only a meaningless, scoreless draw with Portugal stains the records of the Brazilians who did their usual job of taking Chile apart (just the same as in qualifying). In Brazil, the question if this team wins the tournament is will they be beloved like many of their predecessors or looked upon with disdain like the defensive minded 1994 champs?
3. Netherlands - This has not been a typical Dutch tournament. No massive goal scoring barrage in the group stage and no displays of 'Total Football' yet the Dutch are in the quarterfinals with no blemishes on the record. Can this team really do what its much more heralded predecessors failed to?
4. Germany - Quarterfinals for Germany and now the tournament really starts. This is 13 trips to this stage in a row for the Germans who looked very strong in two of their four games and average at best in the other two. Which German team will show up for the Argentina challenge?
5. Spain - Spain seem to not really have it all together. They aren't scoring with their usual panache but the defense looks nearly impenetrable. Only Chile with its super power attack and Switzerland with one of the flukiest goals scored in the tournament have even managed to score so far.
6. Uruguay - Looked shaky against South Korea and somehow managed to gift France a point with a 0-0 draw at the start of the group stage. Should continue to enjoy living on the easy side of the bracket.
7. Ghana - Fortunate to survive the United States, Ghana seems to be on borrowed time. Only the lack of a true powerhouse in the next round gives the Black Stars a chance.
8. Paraguay - That game against Japan was pathetic. Can we send them home with the Japanese? Too bad someone had to win, even on penalties. After that display, one can only hope they go home soon. Welcome in the tournament: OVERSTAYED

Weekend in Review - June 26-27

The three big stories of the weekend past

1. Fedor loses - For those who don't follow MMA, let me give you an idea how big this is. This is the MMA equivalent of Notre Dame beating UCLA basketball to end the winning streak in the 1970s, Buster Douglas over Mike Tyson in boxing or Appalachian St. over Michigan in college football. Fedor put together a winning streak that will never be matched with 27 wins in a row all as a heavyweight and finishing most of the fights. Props to Fabricio Werdum for managing to be the guy to finally beat Fedor, but the big story is Federo's loss and what it does to the MMA landscape (a topic for a much larger post)

2. USA out of the World Cup - USA gave a good effort against Ghana, at least once Ricardo Clark was out of the game after the first half hour and really deserved better in the second half but a lack of quality finishing in front of net did them in. While coach Bob Bradley made good adjustments in this game (and every other), his starting lineup was unforgivably bad. Robbie Findlay should not have seen the field except maybe as a sub where his legs could have been even more useful and Ricardo Clark is completely useless as an offensive player at his position combined with bad giveaways and occasional defensive lapses. Had those two been relegated to the bench to start, I think we get a different result.

3. World Cup Referees - The only reason Sunday wasn't a terrible day to be a referee is because the refs are so protected by FIFA that they don't have to answer for their calls after matches. England, while not the better team and beaten mercilessly in the second half should have had a goal and that might have changed the game. Mexico gave up its first goal because Argentina was two yards offside. Then the video screen in the stadium showed the goal and the Mexicans went ballistic. Then the Mexicans melted down after a promising start to that point. With both incidents, the referees had a bad day. This isn't higher on the story list in part because the right team won both games anyway.

Where was the urgency for Italy?

As many of you know, Italy lost 3-2 to Slovakia and crashed out of the World Cup in the group stage today. I covered many of the reasons why Italy was in trouble the other day and while those certainly played a role here, they are not the reason Italy is going home right now and Slovakia advancing.

Today, Italy played with no urgency or intensity until it was too late. At the end of the game trailing by two goals, Italy looked dangerous and managed to score twice while giving up a goal, looking truly dangerous offensively for the first time in the tournament.

Where was that Italy early in this game when they trailied by one knowing they needed at least a tie? Where was that Italy in the game against Paraguay when they pressed forward but didn't really look dangerous and needed a goalkeeping blunder to tie? Where was that Italy while holding the ball 72% of the time against New Zealand?

The answer to all of those is the offense had no real heart. The Italians seemed to think they were the defending champions in an easy group and could just coast through. They played as though all others were beneath them and that might have worked had the team been at usual Italian standrads, but as I wrote the other day, this team was not. It was old and creaky on defense and lacked target forwards in the event it fell behind leaving Italy with grave problems when a lack of effort and focus is added to the mix.

World Cup Final Group Games Review, A & B

Group A - Uruguay 1, Mexico 0 ans South Africa 2, France 1

The big story here is of course the continued French meltdown. The only thing that went right for 10-men France was the goal they got to at least go home better than 2002 when they failed to score a goal. Of course some people saw this coming see here where I said France would "collapse in a mass of infighting and egos behind their hated coach" back in early May.

For the South Africans, the win was huge despite becoming the first host to crash out at the group stage. They can hold their heads high after a nice draw against Mexico and a win against France. A good showing for a team that was clearly outmanned and outgunned, particularly defensively.

In Mexico, fans are excited despite the loss and I don't know why. Failure against Uruguay equals another second round match with Argentina, just like four years ago. The result will likely be the same and Mexico will crash out in round two again, just like in 2006, 2002, 1998, and 1994. At least they are consistent.

For Uruguay, the draw has opened, possibly all the way to the semifinals. They should defeat South Korea as heavy favorites and the US offense may stand as the most imposing possibility in the quarters. If you had told Uruguay when they qualified they would win their group, play South Korea in round 2 and then play a traditional minnow or an out of form England or Germany to reach to quarters, they would have probably called you crazy but that is what is likely.

World Cup Power Rankings

Rankings all the teams at the World Cup 1-32 based on performances so far

1. Argentina - still all sorts of questions at the back, but have only conceded one goal so far while dismantling South Korea and Nigeria
2. Brazil - still the most talented team and probably the favorite to win, the defensive lapses allowing late goals in both games is a bit of concern
3. Netherlands - Haven't really gotten it going but have gotten two wins. If this team improves its form throughout the tourney, my pick to win has a really good chance
4. Chile - against both Switzerland and Honduras, the Chileans had the two most dominating 1-0 wins anyone will ever see. Neither team seemed to belong on the pitch with the Chileans
5. Spain - Here is the proof of this tourney's mediocrity. I am rewarding Spain's possession and acknowledging their dominance earlier today in the easy win over Honduras. Nobody has really had better results and the Swiss were incredibly lucky.
6. Denmark - Yes, I know the Danes lost 2-0 to the Dutch, but the attacking display they put on against Cameroon was stunning and the loss to the Dutch isn't really punishable in these rankings considering I picked the Netherlands to win the whole tournament
7. Ghana - No they haven't been impressive and should have gotten more than a draw against 10-man Australia, but they are atop a difficuklt group with one game to play. Results do matter here.
8. South Korea - The first game against Greece was a clinic. The second against Argentina was a clinic against them, but they showed well until the avalanche at the end.
9. United States - The US is getting a bump up for the terrible call that went against them, but they have played smart, strong soccer, at least in the second half of both matches, which is more than can be said of most teams.
10. Paraguay - Had a beautiful set piece goal against Italy and dominated Slovakia. With only New Zealand left, passage to round two seems assured
11. Portugal - One awful 0-0 draw and a destruction of a team leave many thinking Portugal is on track. I beg to differ though they will be progressing to round two barring a catastrophe.
12. Germany - Ranked higher than their results dictate because the result against Serbia was a loss because of bad refereeing. They might now make it out of round one despite being the best team in the group.
13. Uruguay - Considering they won a match 3-0 they probably should be higher, but 0-0 against France in the state they are in leaves them ranked here.
14. Mexico - The Mexicans have been fine in the tourney but a 1-1 draw against host minnow South Africa is concerning, espcially the lack of detail defensively late in that game.
15. Slovenia - Lucky to have not blown a two goal lead against completely against the United States, Slovenia needs just a draw to advance
16. Serbia - Beaten by Ghana and lucky against Germany, Serbia still is in good shape. Just win against Australia and go through to round two
17. Japan - An upset of Cameroon was nice, but a 1-1 goal differential after two matches is throughly average and boring
18. Greece - Terrible against South Korea and better against Nigeria, the Greeks are still in huge trouble: Argentina is next
19. Switzerland - Yes they beat Spain, but they looked awful against Chile and basically didn't want to have the ball against Spain. This ranking is as much about their negative football as it is their form
20. England - Pretty much awful since Gerrard's goal early against the USA. They are not in full meltdown mode like their French neighbors, but  the tabloids will be fun to read if they fail to advance
21. Australia - Unfortunate victims of two red cards thus far, they need lots of help to advance because of the shoddy goal differential from the 4-0 beating at the hands of Germany.
22. Slovakia - The Swiss with less defense and no big upset to prop them up
23. Ivory Coast - Unlucky. Probably going out of the tourney no matter what unless they can score at least 6 against North Korea
24. Algeria - Awful offensively, but a goalkeeping howler away from total control of own destiny. Likely needs at least one goal against the attack happy United States
25. Italy - Old and tired, read my last post and it will explain everything
26. New Zealand - No talent but still a couple of 1-1 draws. At least entertaining on the way out of the tourney
27. Nigeria - Somehow still have a chance to get out of their group despite playing terrible football all tourney long.
28. South Africa - The hosts just don't have the offensive horses. Probably will get a win against France though to save face.
29. Honduras - No real chance to get out of the group, but the Swiss do offer a chance at a win.
30. Cameroon - Out of the tourney in a rash of awful defending. While the attack was strong and a victory would have been taken with better finishing, really should have lost to Denmark by a score of 8-6. Yes, the defense really was that bad
31. North Korea - Great showing against Brazil keeps North Koreans out of the cellar despite 7-0 thrashing at the hands of Portugal
32. France - really who else could it be. This is exhibit A in bad team chemistry, selfishness and bad coaching in soccer for generations to come. I'm rooting for them to somehow go through only so the entertaining infighting can continue

Why the USA will never win a World Cup Part 2

Let me preface this by saying there is nothing wrong with the education mentality in the United States. It is just different and lends itself better to other sports when put under this microscope. The system of play through high school and then go to college before entering the draft works fine in football and basketball and a hybrid of the soccer system and the college sports system works great in hockey and baseball. Soccer is a different animal entirely.

Let me also state that last night's loss to the Czech Republic, while helping prove my point (the Czechs fielded their second class players except in goal and will not be in the World Cup), I had already planned this piece before that game.

Champions League Final Preview

Tomorrow is the final of the European Champions League, the most prestigious non-World Cup soccer competition in the world. It airs on Fox (the first time it has ever been aired on network television after being on ESPN in recent years) at 1:30 CT, 11:30 PT.

Teams involved: Inter Milan, champions of Italy and Bayern Munich, champions of Germany

Storylines: The story starts with both teams attempt to become the first in their countries history to claim the treble (the treble is winning a league title, a national cup title and the European title in the same season) and the first since Manchester United in 1999 to complete it.

Inter relies on punishing defensive tactics and just enough scoring from strikers like Samuel Eto'o. The defensive tactics are something of a club tradition having gone back to the founding of the club. Manager Jose Mourniho (dubbed by the British media the 'Special One') has maximized his talent this season after many years of spectacular Champions League failures including blowing leads and a forfeit after their fans threw flairs at rival AC Milan's goalkeeper Dida in the middle of last decade as you can see below.

Why the USA won't win the World Cup anytime soon - Part 1

Way back in the mid-1990s after the United States hosted the 1994 World Cup and exceeded expectations by reaching the knockout stages and MLS was formed soon after, soccer was riding high in the United States. US soccer created a plan to win the World Cup by 2010. While the US has greatly improved, a World Cup title is not going to happen this year and its not going to happen anytime soon. Here is a look at some of the reasons why the Americans remain at a disadvantage compared to the rest of the world in soccer.

People in the US play sports other than soccer. In much of the rest of the world, kids play soccer first and everything else 2nd.

More after the jump