Picks failure, reviewing my preseason college football rankings

Here we go, a chance for me to get skewered (and believe me, there is one team I completely missed on preseason more than almost anyone along with the usual array of hits and misses everyone has). That said, I'm starting with what I did right. I want to feel good about myself before I criticize myself and allow all my readers to make fun of me. Then I will offer some defense, flimsy though it may be for my awful picks from the preseason.

Teams I pegged pretty well (preseason ranking in parenthesis)

LSU (1) – Obviously I had the Tigers pegged, until the National Title Game.

Alabama (2) – Same with the Crimson Tide.

Boise St. (5) – I thought Boise St. had a loss in there somewhere, I just didn't know where.

Oregon (7) – Finished higher than this, but this ranking was based on a two-loss projection so I will say I had it right.

South Carolina (12) – And to think I was worried that I had overrated this team in the preseason.

Michigan St. (14) – Finished a bit higher, but was ranked right in this area before the crapshoot that is the bowl game.

Georgia (15) – Ditto Michigan St.

West Virginia (16) – If not for October this team could have finished in the top 5.

Teams that I was a bit off, but within reason

Oklahoma (3) – Injuries destroyed the offense in November. Still, this wasn't a top 5 team. Top 10 with all the players most likely.

Wisconsin (4) – Beaten on a pair of Hail Mary's and that is it in the regular season.

Virginia Tech (13) – This was as much a schedule ranking as anything. In fact, I picked this team to go to the National Title Game because I thought it would go undefeated against a pathetic schedule. And it did except Clemson was much better than expected.

TCU (22) – I expected early growing pains and I got them. Still, this team improved a ton and I never thought it would win in Boise.

BYU (25) – Won 10 games, but against the 10 weakest teams on the schedule. Lost to Texas and Utah, two teams nobody has ranked as this point.

Teams I overrated by a lot

Nebraska (6) – I thought the defense would play well in the Big Ten (it didn't) and I thought Taylor Martinez would play better as a sophomore (he did, but not by much).

Florida St. (8) – Another ranking that was product of the weak ACC schedule. I have learned my lesson. I won't be doing this again. And I also won't be picking Florida St. to beat West Virginia in September 2012. Prove something first.

Missouri (9) – Played well but didn't get wins against the toughest schedule in the country. This team really should have been better considering the talent on hand.

Texas A&M (10) – Everybody missed this because nobody knew that the definition of collapse is Aggies (Utah St. also fits this bill, at least in the collapse sense).

Notre Dame (11) – First came the ND turnover machine with RAGE FACE. Then Michigan was a heck of a lot better than expected. Also, USC and Stanford were top 10 teams. There were four losses.

Mississippi St. (17) – In retrospect, we should have seen this coming. The numbers didn't support a 9-4 record in 2010 and there were losses on the defense that carried this team to that record. Oops.

Ohio St. (21) – I'm not taking any blame for this. Nobody had any idea how this was going to turn out.

Pittsburgh (24) – A pathetic pick on my part and a pathetic team.

Teams I underrated by a lot

Stanford (18) – I refused to bow at the altar of Luck in the preseason. I paid for it by looking like a dimwit. Moving on.

USC (19) – The first half of the season, this looked like it belonged in the section above this one. Then the Trojans suddenly became the destroyers or old and jumped way, way up the rankings as others lost.

Arkansas (20) – Took advantage of an offense challenged SEC. Also played consistently, allowing a move to a legit top 10 finish.

Oklahoma St. (23) – May God have mercy on my soul for missing this pick by this much (especially since the rest of the world had this team in the top 10). In my defense, I saw a team with an average defense (cost them dearly in the one loss) and an offense that lost its coordinator and had the players teaching the new coordinator the offense since he came from a different background. The coordinator thing reminded me of Auburn's overhyped 2003 team and I ranked accordingly, especially with said average defense. And I paid for it. And I will continue to pay for it.

Unranked teams that finished ranked

Michigan – The defense was light years better than anyone expected. Everyone knew the offense was going to still be good.

Baylor – RGIII was a known commodity, but he went to another level and the defense got just enough stops to win him some games and the Heisman.

Kansas St. - Won more one possession games than any team in the BCS era. I expect a regression to the mean next season and a 6-6 type season.

Southern Miss – Only ranked because voters value not losing. Didn't really beat anyone other than Houston.

Houston – Ditto, only beat Penn St.

Clemson – That offense is going to be nearly impossible to defend if everyone stays healthy. Heck, it was nearly impossible to defend early in the season this year before Sammy Watkins got banged up and Tajh Boyd lost his consistency.

Penn St. - Exactly like we thought in the preseason. No offense, all defense. Of course that defense was incredible, before the collapse of everything at Penn St.

Week 6 College Football Top 25

This is a resume ranking. I am only looking at what teams have accomplished thus far, not at what they might do ahead or what I think they will do. Believe me, if this were a traditional ranking system of the the power poll variety, Auburn wouldn't be within 20 miles of the top 25 and Kansas St., Michigan and Illinois would be ranked somewhere in the teens and maybe lower in some cases.

1 LSU (6-0) – Another week, another blowout win. Given the schedules, there is no way LSU drops out of the top spot before the Alabama game unless they lose and that's not going to happen (at Tennessee, Auburn before that)

2 Alabama (6-0) – Ole Miss and Tennessee all that remains before the big game. Just playing the string out here until then.

3 Oklahoma (5-0) – Sooners clocked Texas to move back in front of Clemson and control their own destiny in the national title chase. Win out (including the title game) and win the national title.

4 Clemson (6-0) – Poor Clemson. Finally over the yips and they are pretty much in Boise St. territory. At least should enjoy their moment the next two weeks until College Gameday shows up in Atlanta for their game against Georgia Tech.

5 Wisconsin (5-0) – Given Nebraska's struggles with Ohio St. the question must still be asked, who has Wisconsin beaten. The answer is nobody until Penn St., Illinois stretch in November (never thought I would type those words).

6 Kansas St. (5-0) – Remember that this is a resume ranking. Wildcats aren't this good in a power poll. Remember that they started 4-0 last season before being taken behind the woodshed against Nebraska.

7 Boise St. (5-0) – If Boise St. wants to win the National Title, they need to schedule more aggressively. Playing Georgia (good) and 4 non-AQs from weaker league (ouch) just won't cut it for a non-AQ team in the title chase. Only ranked in front of AQ undefeateds now because many haven't hit the meat of their schedules yet.

8 Michigan (6-0) – Wolverines have shown some vulnerabilities, but the collapse of their league means they might actually be title contenders.

9 Oklahoma St. (5-0) – The schedule actually kind of kicks in this week with the trip to Texas. Blow them up like Kansas was blown up last week, and this ranking will be much higher next week.

10 Illinois (6-0) – The fact that Zook is 6-0 just shows the sorry state of the Illinois schedule.

11 Georgia Tech (6-0) – Other than North Carolina, the best win is against Kansas. I think that says enough.

12 Stanford (5-0) – The schedule so far would be an insult to the Little Sisters of the Poor. Next week's game against Washington can't get here quick enough.

13 Arizona St. (5-1) – Sun Devils are one mind numbingly stupid loss to Illinois from a top 5 ranking (17-14 in a game that actually wasn't played at noon ET)

14 Baylor (4-1) – Defenseless Bears continue to win, blowing up Iowa St. I want to see them against a real defense though.

15 Arkansas (5-1) – Razorbacks are probably underranked here (resume or power ranking it doesn't matter). They appear headed to 10-1 going into the LSU game.

16 Oregon (4-1) – Ducks have gotten the offense in gear since the LSU debacle. The schedule gets into gear Saturday (Arizona St. visits Autzen with College Gameday along for the ride).

17 West Virginia (5-1) – Mountaineers continue to play only one half of football. That one half usually is enough, especially in the Big East.

18 Texas (4-1) – While bad, that beating was no worse than the ones suffered in 2000 or 2004 when Oklahoma was cruising to the title game.

19 Penn St. (5-1) – I can't believe they have won enough to force me to rank this team given the state of the offense (Nittany Lion games are totally unwatchable, possibly even for fans of the team).

20 Nebraska (5-1) – Well that was ugly. Take the win Nebraska and be thankful the comeback at the end was being led by Bauserman and not Braxton Miller. The defense has some major issues.

21 Washington (4-1) – Huskies are surprisingly very good. Wins over Cal and Utah are nice and the Nebraska loss was at least a game.

22 Notre Dame (4-2) – Now that the turnover machine has been fixed, Notre Dame looks really good. I expect them to be 9-2 when they head to Stanford on Thanksgiving weekend.

23 North Carolina (5-1) – Tar Heels have done well working through another year of adversity. I'm actually kind of rooting for these guys now, dirty program though it was.

24 Auburn (4-2) – Anybody with half a brain could see these guys had little chance against Arkansas. That they still might somehow cobble together 8 wins is a testament to the weakness of the SEC this season.

25 South Carolina (5-1) – With Stephen Garcia gone entirely, maybe this team can finally just play football, especially on offense where the team struggled all season until last week's 54-3 win over Kentucky.

Others

Florida (4-2) – With Tennessee's demise against Georgia, the Gators have no quality wins. The losses aren't really black marks though.

Houston (6-0) – The only win of note is a home game that was a struggle against UCLA. This will continue to be the case until the SMU game in mid-November. Despite the weakness, this schedule is not a total abomination though like the Hawaii 2007 undefeated schedule was.

Georgia (4-2) – Four straight wins, but they have been unimpressive on offense and playing against a ton of bad offenses, pumping their defensive rankings up. Probably will be in with another win this weekend though (despite playing Vanderbilt's awful offense).

Virginia Tech (5-1) – Beating Miami was a start, but the Hurricanes have a losing record at this point.

Wake Forest (4-1) – The loss to Syracuse hasn't quite been canceled out yet. Win this week and a ranking is assured (plays Virginia Tech, that ultimatum also goes for the Hokies)

Week 5 Top 25

Now that we have a few weeks of games in the books, its time for a new Top 25. I rank teams according to what they have done (resume ranking) looking only at scores, who they beat and how they have looked while doing it.

1 LSU (5-0) – Wins over Oregon, Mississippi St. and West Virginia all away from home are the best collection of wins in the country. Also, teams seem to have no hope going against the defense, even though both Oregon and West Virginia scored some points on it.

2 Alabama (5-0) – Alabama's collection of wins is nearly as good as LSU's with a road wins against Penn St. and Florida and a win over Arkansas. The Crimson Tide are edged out by a slight margin mostly because it seems they have no deep threat. Based on what we have seen so far (independent of expectations and talent level), that lack of a deep threat could be a big problem against LSU.

3 Clemson (5-0) – The big surprise of the early season, Clemson had beaten Auburn, Florida St. and Virginia Tech. The Tigers have a great offense (despite the uneven game in Blacksburg) and showed their defense is pretty good too by shutting down the Hokies on the road. Given the rest of the schedule, the question must be asked” Could schizophrenic Clemson actually go undefeated?

4 Oklahoma (4-0) – Another week, another ho hum win. The Florida St. and Missouri wins look like high quality wins and the Sooners get a shot at another this week with the Red River Shootout against Texas. That said, Missouri was way too close for comfort and could have beaten the Sooners had they played even average in the middle two quarters.

5 Wisconsin (5-0) – The Badgers are the most dominant team in the country, but other than Nebraska, Wisconsin has played a steaming pile of poo for a schedule (not entirely their fault that the wheels fell off of Oregon St. this season) and will continue to do so. Just know that Ron Zook is the biggest obstacle between the Badgers and a perfect record entering the B1G Championship Game.

6 Boise St. (4-0) – Another week, another ho hum win where the starters were out early. Sadly for Boise, the schedule is not what it has been in previous years. Georgia is not the level of Virginia Tech from last year or Oregon the year before. TCU is not what they were. There is no Oregon St. this year. There is also no real credible challenger in the Broncos new league. Given that, other than the Georgia game, non-conference games against Toledo, Nevada, Fresno St. and Tulsa aren't good enough to get this team to the National Championship barring a total collapse at the top of the polls.

7 Michigan (5-0) – The Notre Dame win is good and destroying teams 58-0 always looks good. I think they are really good, but not top 10 good in reality.

8 Oklahoma St. (4-0) – Texas A&M win looks good, but not great given the Aggies collapse against Arkansas. Arizona win looks terrible. The wheels have come off the bus there, leaving no non-conference victory of note on the resume.

9 Illinois (5-0) – The fighting Zooks have one huge win (Arizona St., my top one-loss team) and collection of unimpressive wins against middling competition and blowouts over bad teams. Given the garbage many teams have played to this point, that's good for a high ranking here even if I don't believe there is any way this keeps up.

10 Kansas St. (4-0) – Beating Miami on the road and Baylor looks very good given the lack of quality wins out there from many teams. As long as you do like I do and write off the 10-7 win over Eastern Kentucky as first game jitters and an aberration, things look good here even if there is no way the Wildcats will be beating any of the top Big 12 teams.

Rest of the Top 25 after the jump

AP Poll Review - Week 4

I have given the AP Poll a few weeks to get the kinks out. There should be some semblance of order and logic there. There won't be, but we can always hope.

Just as in the preseason, I will be using the pollstalker at pollspeak.com to evaluate the voters and see all the ballots.

Most Overrated Team: Nebraska (9) – The Cornhuskers has big questions on offense and were really good on defense, at least that was the conventional wisdom. Well, the defense stinks (Washington eviscerated it but couldn't do anything defensively and Fresno St. went up and down the field all game long) and the offense, while strong right now, is just doing what it did against the soft early schedule a year ago. I suspect the Nebraska we have seen so far will not be there all season long and if the defense remains average, the Cornhuskers will lose at least 3 games in Big Ten play.

Most Underrated Team: West Virginia (16) – The Mountaineers have been inconsistent, but they have played some very good football. I expect them to put it all together this week in a huge game against LSU and have a chance to win the game at the end, especially with their spread passing game (a bit different than the spread running games LSU has devoured thus far).

Five craziest votes:

Jeremy Sampson votes TCU 19^th and Baylor 20^th: There is so much wrong with this its astounding. Later in the season, a case might could be made for this. Now though. Baylor is 2-0 and BEAT TCU. TCU has two wins and it is viable to vote them in the poll, just not in front of Baylor. Get your preseason biases out of here, especially when there are early head-to-head matchups involved.

Dirk Facer votes Arizona St. over Illinois: Really. Some guys make this too easy. Arizona St. lost to Illinois, Saturday. Illinois hasn't lost a game yet. How is this justifiable? Was Arizona St.'s ugly overtime win over Missouri really that powerful a victory? (No)... Moving On

Eight dimwits are still voting for Auburn: Have these guys not watched Auburn play? The defense is wretched by FCS standards, let alone SEC/Top 25 standards. The offense is good, but the big win over Mississippi St. looks quite average right now given what LSU did to the Bulldogs. Also, Utah St. is still Utah St. and Auburn still needed a miracle to pull that game off. Realistically, this team should be 0-3 right now, not getting top 25 votes.

Three Notre Dame voters still exist: To the three of you. I don't care how many yards they have put up. They are a 1-2 team with a crippling turnover problem (seriously, they still turned it over 3 more times in the win over Michigan St.). There is no justifiable reason to vote the Irish in the Top 25 right now. Get back to me when you get above .500

The awfulness that is Craig James: There are so many places to go with this, especially considering James is already the most vilified (seriously) analyst in college football we might have ever seen. With his terrible ballot, we can now see he is unqualified to this too. At least he got his top 4 right. The rest though... Florida St. is still at five, even with an injured quarterback. He thinks Michigan is a top 20 team (you can argue that on resume right now, but there is no way James is a resume voter in the blogging sense of it). His 22-25 teams in order are: TCU (I don't agree but whatever), Mississippi St. (1-2 with losses to awful defense Auburn and an offenseless performance where they looked like they couldn't beat a high school team against LSU), Auburn (you already read my thoughts on them being ranked earlier, but then its compounded by ranking them behind Mississippi St. who they beat and have a better record then) and Notre Dame (mind-numbing stupidity we have here). I could go on but I really don't want to. That this guy has a vote and his shiny analyst position given all the things he has done that are, at the very least, in gray areas (trying to be nice here) is quite sickening, especially considering he is also bad at his job.

Poll trends:

Overreacting early in the season – The conventional wisdom has always been its better to lose early than late. It's a lie. Losing in September is a recipe for poll burial (unless you're TCU for some reason). You fall so far back, there is no making it up. Teams that lose in October don't fall as far, making that the best month to lose in. This season, we have already seen Florida St., Oregon fall from the top 10 in losses to teams ranked in the top 3. Had both of those teams started 6-0 and lost the same games in late October, the punishment would have been a drop to about the 7 spot with still plenty of time to climb back up.

The most important thing is still not losing – Only 3 teams with a loss are currently ranked. All the others, even if they have a decent to good win are somewhere on the outskirts of the poll at best. A case can be made at the very least for Arizona St. (win over Missouri before Illinois loss) and Maryland (win over Miami who then beat Ohio St. before losing to West Virginia). Certainly what those teams have done is more impressive than Arkansas and Virginia Tech (3 cupcake snacks for Arkansas and two plus East Carolina for Virginia Tech).

Non-BCS schools get no love – The only way to get any respect from outside the power conferences is to play in the Mountain West. If you don't have then, forget about the top 25. You can make a good case that what Florida International out of the Sun Belt has done so far is better than much of the rest of the country and better than many ranked teams. They currently have 4 points. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has 8 points and Georgia 7. O Really?

Biggest Poll Games This Week:

8 Texas A&M vs 7 Oklahoma St. - Expect a wild shootout here (and I mean that considering this game has been a wild shootout for about four year running now). The Cowboys can't be stopped for the most part, but their defense is flammable to say the least and Texas A&M has shown an elite level offense.

16 West Virginia vs 2 LSU – LSU has been great defensively in two hyped tests against spread offenses so far. This one comes against a little different form of spread that matches up a bit better. The West Virginia spread passing game has the potential to give LSU headaches meaning Jarrett Lee and the LSU offense will have to finish those drives that ended in field goals against Mississippi St. with touchdowns.

3 Alabama vs 14 Arkansas – We really don't know much about Arkansas. They haven't played anyone. We can say the same about Alabama, at least on defense. The Penn St. offense is that bad, believe me (and if you don't I sentence you to watching all of Penn St.'s offensive plays against Temple, you are allowed to cry afterward) and while I am nearly certain the Alabama defense will be dominant nobody can really be positive quite yet.

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Week 2 College Football Rankings

Rankings a combination of how good I believe teams are right now and resume so far. Teams that have no wins are ineligible until they win a game. Next week will require a win over an FBS opponent (which everyone under any consideration will have).

1 LSU (1-0) – The best win of week one belongs to LSU, but the offense was atrocious, even with 40 points on the board. With Jarrett Lee in at quarterback instead of Jordan Jefferson, there is less ability for gamebreaking plays (and there wasn't much in the first place).

2 Boise St. (1-0) – Easily the second best win, if you want to put Boise St. number one because of style points, I wouldn't argue. They dominated. If you want to have them lower because you believe there is no chance they would beat Alabama or Oklahoma, I might argue before giving you the point. Either way, this is a top 5 team again.

3 Alabama (1-0) – Beating Kent St. proved exactly nothing we didn't already know. One possible snag: no deep threat at all offensively. If that gets figured out in practice this week, I expect a Penn st. skid mark on Saturday. There may be one anyway.

4 Oklahoma (1-0) – Week 2 and the Sooners already have a bye week. The lack of a conference title game and games in December means the Big 12 gets two of them. In this case, Oklahoma gets its practice week for the big showdown against Florida St.

5 Wisconsin (1-0) – If Russell Wilson is as good against Big Ten defenses as he looked against UNLV, this team is playing for the National Title unless Oklahoma and the SEC Champ go undefeated.

6 Florida St. (1-0) – The defense did its job shutting out Louisiana-Monroe (this is like a badge of honor for presumed national contenders who play them including 2010 LSU, 2008 Auburn and Ole Miss). The offense has a week to get everything working before Oklahoma.

7 Texas A&M (1-0) – Easy win over SMU. Now its on to the bye week and the official defection to the SEC, followed by Armageddon.

8 Nebraska (1-0) – Looked good against FCS Chattanooga, even throwing some Tom Osbourne triple option into the system. Who knows how that will work against more competent defenses with more athletes. I wold say we will see soon, but upcoming opponents Fresno St. and Washington look awful on that side of the ball.

9 Stanford (1-0) – Andrew Luck looked really good and so did Stanford. I'm still not sold on them and San Jose St. is in the running for worst FBS team, but that was as impressive a first week beatdown as anyone had.

10 Mississippi St. (1-0) – The impressive beatdown against a team among the worst in FBS also applies here. The victim was Memphis though. Things get tougher, at least in theory, this week against Auburn in what could be a track meet.

Preseason Top 25 – Ranked by how good the teams are now

I could really care less about the projection at this point. It's all about how good I believe the teams are going into the season. Yesterday, I projected Virginia Tech into the national title game because of an easy schedule. They are not a top two team right now and they won't start ranked there. Also, teams that I have projected to much lower bowl games will start higher. I think LSU is really, really good. I think they will wilt against the toughest schedule in all of college football (at least if you think 10-2 is wilting).

1 LSU – Tigers have a great defensive line, but neutral site game against Oregon and road games against Alabama and West Virginia in addition to the rest of the SEC schedule will keep the Tigers from BCS glory.

2 Alabama – An easy early schedule (made easier by the injury issues in the Arkansas backfield) will allow whoever the new quarterback to work into the system. There is an upset out there somewhere, but the Tide will still solidly win the SEC West as long as the QB situation is settled by the LSU game.

3 Oklahoma – Sooners are really good, but their road issues over the last few seasons have been atrocious and Florida St. is a really hard early road game.

4 Wisconsin – Russell Wilson elevates this team a lot. With the Wisconsin running game, Wilson will be able to play as the mistake-free efficient quarterback he was as a freshman, not the risk taking interception prone man he was last year at NC State.

5 Boise St. - Kellen Moore is back and so is nearly everyone else outside of the receivers. That means another possible run at BCS glory and another year of hatred from most of the country (in particular SEC fans who will throw Georgia under the bus if the Bulldogs lose the opener to Boise).

6 Nebraska – The Cornhuskers will have their usual dominant defense. They start here now, but I don't believe in QB Taylor Martinez as an elite quarterback and I think his limits limit the ceiling of Nebraska. The Cornhuskers will slide as other teams improve throughout the season.

7 Oregon – Nobody in the Pac-12 has the king of defensive line that has now consistently killed Oregon the last couple of seasons, but opening opponent LSU does. Along with a rebuilding defense that leaves the Ducks susceptible to a shootout loss like the 2009 loss to Stanford, repeating last season's national title game trip looks way too steep.

8 Florida St. - Seminoles very well might be back, but I think they are still one step away. They are close though and beating Oklahoma at home in week 3 will show that.

9 Missouri – Tigers are loaded. Only an elite quarterback stands between them and a run at the national title. Too bad Blaine Gabbert left early for first round NFL draft riches.

10 Texas A&M – Don't let the current SEC controversy distract. The Aggies are a legit contender this season with a really strong offense. If they can get a pass rush without standout Von Miller, they could beat anyone on the schedule.

Pre-Spring Top 25 - LSU and Oklahoma start on top

Some programs have started college football spring practice and most will have done so within the next couple of weeks. With that said, its time for a very early look at the top 25. This will change as we get closer to the season and position battles are completed and players drop off of teams for whatever reason.

1LSU (11-2, 7^th last season) – The Tigers return most of the roster and the entire core aside from Steven Ridley who foolishly entered the NFL Draft. As long as LSU gets average quarterback, the difficult schedule won't be a problems with the possible exception of the trip to Alabama.

2Oklahoma (12-2, 8^th) – Sooners are loaded again, but where will they blow it this time? It happens every year. The only question is which game and then can a one-loss Oklahoma make it through this season?

3Oregon (12-1, 2^nd) – Suffer heavy losses, but get the stars back for another run at the title. The schedule is a whole different animal this year though with Stanford on the road and a neutral site game against LSU to open the season.

4Ohio St. (12-1, 6^th) – If the Buckeyes survive the suspensions, they will be better for it down the stretch and in future seasons. The question is if Ohio St. can get through the first six (five with suspended players and the re-adjustment game) undefeated with Miami, Michigan St. and Nebraska all on the schedule.

5Texas A&M (9-4, 14^th) – Why so high? The Aggies lost only one game after Ryan Tannehill was inserted as the starter (against LSU) and 19 starters return. I expect the best Texas A&M team since the 1998 Big 12 Champs.

6Alabama (10-3, 11^th) – I'm not as sold as every analyst seems to be that Alabama is just going to plug any old inexperienced quarterback and win the national title again. I just don't believe that is happening with consecutive quarterbacks.

7Florida St. (10-4, 17^th) – Loads of talent returning and the quarterback position will be just fine without Christian Ponder.

8Boise St. (12-1, 10^th) – Only really lost the receivers and some of the line. Kellen Moore and much of the nasty defense return. Might be starting with a slightly lower profile but very much still a title contender.

9Oklahoma St. (11-2, 12^th) – With all its draft eligible stars back, the Cowboys should be plenty good, depending on how well the offense works with former coordinator Dana Holgerson in West Virginia.

10Stanford (12-1, 4^th) – Offense will be explosive, but I'm not sold on the defense at this point and Owen Maricic will be missed greatly.

11Wisconsin (11-2, 5^th) – The Badger running game will be revved up and ready to go with all its guys back. Just beware of a week 3 date with Northern Illinois, not coached by former Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Doersen.

12South Carolina (9-5, NR) – The SEC East title came a year early because of the down division. This season is actually the year the Gamecocks were built for and it will show, as long as Spurrier doesn't play musical quarterbacks again.

13Missouri (10-3, 22^nd) – How does a team lose a first-round early entry quarterback and move up to start the next season? When the team was built for next season and everyone is returning except for said early entry quarterback. If Gabbart had stayed, this team is in the top 5.

14West Virginia (9-4, NR) – Beware the Mountaineers. With Dana Holgerson in the fold calling plays and a favorable Big East schedule, a national title run is possible if West Virginia can pull a home upset of LSU in late September.

15Arkansas (10-3, 13^th) – Despite Tyler Wilson's great performance in relief at Auburn, I need to see him against a real passing defense before I anoint this team a contender like some are. The Auburn secondary was a joke until late in the season last year.

16Maryland (9-4, 19^th) - Randy Edsall is in an unfortunate position (though he placed himself there). The last coach won nine games and was considered to be boring and stuck at a ceiling so he was forced out. Edsall is much the same in personality and style of offense and has capped out at eight wins for UConn. There will be little to no grace period here, but the team is good enough that it shouldn't matter.

17Florida (8-5, NR) – Gators problems were less lack of talent and more bad coaching, execution and play calling. Will Muschamp and Charlie Weis will get that fixed to some degree, but it will take a couple of years to fully get away from spread offense jitterbug, speedster athletes.

18Penn St. (7-6, NR) – The team was incredibly young last season and Joe Paterno knows it. When they mature next season, JoePa is going to get his one last shot at a national title. As for this season, nine wins and a solid ranking look doable.

19Virginia Tech (11-3, 16^th) – The Hokie defense slipped last season while the offense picked up the slack. With a new starter, the defense needs to regain its previous form.

20Notre Dame (8-5, NR) – Quarterback controversy at the Golden Dome: take the super talented guy who put up good numbers but lost and is coming off two major knee surgeries or the guy who lacks the same overall skills but won four games in a row down the stretch. It's a truly tough call.

21TCU (13-0, 3^rd) – Frogs will be plenty good, but top ten isn't happening this season, even if it takes until the Boise St. road trip at the end of the year to figure that out.

22Mississippi St. (9-4, 15^th) – Bulldogs should be improved again under Dan Mullen. Of course with the East in a little better shape this season, the record could be the same or a game worse.

23Michigan St. (11-2, 18^th) – Sparty just isn't that good. Ranked because I would feel bad not ranking an 11-2 team with most of the roster back from a year ago. That said, Spartans were incredibly lucky last season and were steamrolled in the two toughest games (at Iowa and Alabama in the bowl game)

24Nebraska (10-4, 21^st) – Who knows what we are going to get out of this offense. It still has no identity. If they find one, look out because the defense will be strong again.

25Louisville (7-6, NR) – Year two is quantum leaf year many times and while this isn't a national title run waiting to happen, the Cardinals could win the Big East if West Virginia falters.

Others Considered (in no certain order)

Auburn (14-0, 1^st) – Just lost too much to be ranked in the preseason. Beat Mississippi st. in week two and that will be rectified.

Arizona St. (6-6, NR) – Just didn't accomplish enough to be ranked despite returning virtually the entire team.

Georgia (6-7, NR) – Make or break year for Mark Richt. Georgia could easily win the SEC this season or could be coach hunting in December. Either would please many Georgia fans.

Arizona (7-6, NR) – After a five game losing streak to finish the season, Wildcats must be wondering what they did to deserve the punishment they are about to receive. Rematches with five of the six team Arizona lost to happen before the end of October including another game against bowl opponent Oklahoma St.

USC (8-5, NR) – Trojans still ineligible for post season and still insufferable.

Syracuse (8-5, NR) – Orange reclamation project is in full swing after bowl berth last season. Now the goal is to protect the home field where Syracuse was run over all season.

Georgia Tech (6-7, NR) 0 The Triple-option hit a speed bump last season, but Georgia Tech shouldn't be down to long.

Texas (5-7, NR) – The problems here run much deeper than Florida. Until they prove they have the talent, Texas will remain here (and clubbing UCLA early doesn't count).

San Diego St. (9-4, NR) – Team is fairly loaded for new coach Rocky Long. Would be ranked easily if Brady Hoke had stayed.

NC State (9-4, 20^th) – Still unknown exactly what Russell Wilson is doing. Whether its baseball or football, Wolfpack should be decent still

Post-season Wrap up – Computer Rankings

College football season is over :(

It's time to take a look at the season that was beginning today with the overall computer rankings, post bowl game.

Top 25

1 Auburn (14-0, 195.14) – Of course the Tigers are the top team with wins over five teams in this top 25 and two more wins over South Carolina who is ranked 26. In any sort of resume ranking that does not included margin of victory (like this one), Auburn absolutely has to be the top team.

2 Oklahoma (12-2, 172.29) – Oklahoma is highly ranked in this computer as usual. A strong non-conference schedule plus drawing the better teams from the Big 12 North means a very high ranking.

3 TCU (13-0, 167.54) – TCU is nowhere near Auburn in part because they played an overall schedule weaker than every BCS league team according to the computer. Some of that, of course was not playing themselves as every other Mountain West team played a schedule that equaled much or the Big Ten, Big East and ACC schedules.

4 Stanford (12-1, 167.08) – Cardinal are ranked higher than Pac-10 brethren Oregon in part because of better non-conference schedule and in part because the win over Virginia Tech makes up some of the ground lost by Oregon's win over Stanford.

5 Ohio St. (12-1, 162.00) – While the Buckeyes beat no elite teams other than Arkansas, they beat a lot of above average teams and didn't lose a lot of games or lose to a bad team.

6 LSU (11-2, 159.46) – Once again, a strong non-conference schedule carries a team as North Carolina and West Virginia are a lot more adventurous than many others attempted. Add a bowl win over Texas A&M and the resume looks really good.

7 Oregon (12-1, 154.85) – Next season's non-conference game should fix this problem. Tennessee was way way down this season. LSU next year won't be.

8 Oklahoma St. (11-2, 147.38) – Cowboys just won a lot of games to get this high. Also benefited from being in a Big 12 that was and still is overrated in the computers.

9 Missouri (10-3, 142.46) – Most Overrated Team – And now we see the proof of the overratedness of the Big 12 in the computers. Missouri's non-conference wins over Miami (OH), San Diego St. and Illinois all carried a ton more weight than it was thought they would before the season. Other than Illinois, the others were meant to be cupcakes, not 9 or 10 win teams.

10 Boise St. (12-1, 139.00) – Broncos win over Virginia Tech turned out to be one of the valuable of the season by anyone despite the Hokies problems against elite teams, though the win confirms Boise as an elite team, at least for this season.

11 Alabama (10-3, 138.54) – It seems nearly everybody (including the computers) agrees on Alabama: supremely talented that underachieved a little bit and had some bad luck. The result is a ranking between 8 and 12 and not many people will argue that.

12 Michigan St. (11-2, 136.62) – Sparty is also pretty overrated by this computer, but the lack of margin of victory explains that. If margin of victory was included, the losses to Alabama and Iowa would look much worse while many of the close wins would also cause problems for the Spartans.

13 Nevada (13-1, 135.29) – The best season in Nevada history could have been better, a lot better, if the Wolfpack had shown up for the first half in Hawaii (they trailed 17-0 at halftime en route to a 27-21 loss). That said, an undefeated Nevada was never going to the BCS as long as TCU remained undefeated.

14 Virginia Tech (11-3, 132.29) – Hokies loss to James Madison, even with the short week and hungover from Boise explanations is still the most befuddling loss of the season, by far.

15 Arkansas (10-3, 130.92) – It seems this team should be higher with its wins over Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi St. and South Carolina and only elite losses, but the Razorbacks didn't even attempt to play even an average team other than Texas A&M in the non-conference

16 Wisconsin (11-2, 130.08) – Most Underrated Team. Rankings like this are why many people look at the computers and yell and scream to high heaven when they get a shot to influence the national title race. The reason of course is Wisconsin's schedule that in the non-conference included an average at best Arizona St. team and three cupcakes including San Jose St. and Austin Peay along with not missing any of the awful teams in Big Ten play.

17 Texas A&M (9-4, 128.92) – I have been really high on this team all season for some reason. Oddly, except Oklahoma, every team the Aggies beat is ranked below them and all four teams that beat Texas A&M are ranked higher than this.

18 Florida St. (10-4, 124.36) – Seminoles will be overwhelming ACC favorites next season after finally getting thins turned around this year. It turns out the Oklahoma loss wasn't as bad as everyone thought when it happened.

19 Utah (10-3, 117.85) – Another overrated team, the Utes benefit from Notre Dame's winning streak to end the season helping to not kill the ranking and the surprising strength of the middle of the Mountain West this season

20 Nebraska (10-4, 113.29) – Cornhuskers were awful in the bowl game, but the reason for the ranking being down here is the terrible non-conference schedule (Washington was the only team with a pulse) and the ugly loss to Texas (not to mention losing the rematch to Washington in the bowl game).

21 NC State (9-4, 108.92) – Wolfpack seemed a lot more Jekyll and Hyde-ish then they actually were. With the exception of a bad loss to East Carolina, the only losses were toss ups at best and this team finally didn't lose to anyone terrible in conference play, the first time in quite some time that can be said.

22 West Virginia (9-4, 103.15) – The Big East does get a top 25 team here, somehow. The Mountaineers can thank win over Maryland outside of the conference and LSU's elite status for that. It certainly wasn't earned by going 5-2 in the crappy Big East.

23 Notre Dame (8-5, 102.15) – Everyone thought the Irish were cooked after losing to Tulsa. It turns out that wasn't a bad loss and Notre Dame was just fine. In fact, had Notre Dame won that game and the Navy game the week before, they would have been in the top 15, even with the loss to Michigan (that was a worse loss than losing to either Tulsa or Navy turned out to be)

24 Mississippi St. (9-4, 101.08) – Proof the SEC West was the best collection of team in college football: Mississippi St. won nine games and got into the top 25 despite not winning a game against a team that finished above them in the division standings. It helps to beat everyone else on the schedule.

25 Maryland (9-4, 100.54) – Terps turned out to be one of the biggest surprises of the season. Would have finished higher if the bowl opponent had been a bit better. East Carolina was one of the worst teams to make a bowl game this season (and was the worst on defense).

Final 2010 College Football Rankings

1 Auburn (14-0) – Perfect season in the SEC and a BCS Title is good enough for me. Also has by far the best overall resume with wins over Oregon, LSU, Arkansas, Alabama, Mississippi St. and South Carolina (x2)

2 Oregon (12-1) – I see no reason to drop the Ducks just because they lost a close game to the best team. There was nothing in that game that made me think TCU was any better

3 TCU (13-0) – This season's TCU team is probably the best non-BCS team ever (yes better than the two Utah teams and the two Boise St. teams) and the win over a truly motivated Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl is better than any win any of their predecessors had

4 Stanford (12-1) – And now we start the hype for Andrew Luck's Heisman run. The Cardinal were very impressive in the 2^nd half dismantling of Virginia Tech

5 Wisconsin (11-2) – I still think they are the Big Ten's best team despite the loss. Should have run the ball more in the Rose Bowl. TCU didn't have enough beef on the defensive line to stop it

6 Ohio St. (12-1) – The suspended players shouldn't have been allowed to play in the Sugar Bowl, but they all made a huge contribution to the victory

7 LSU (11-2) – I think Les Miles turned down Michigan because he might have another national title team on his hands here next season

8 Oklahoma (12-2) – And this team, with all of its underclassmen putting off the draft, will be LSU's main competition

9 Nevada (13-1) – Wolfpack probably aren't quite this good, but only one loss and the win over Boise St. gets them this high

10 Boise St. (12-1) – Will start high again next season with Kellen Moore back. Wondering when the effects of coordinator drain start to hit this program (DC Justin Wilcox left for Tennessee last offseason, OC Bryan Harsin is now at Texas)

11 Alabama (10-3) – Crimson Tide played as complete a game as anyone has played all season in destroying Michigan St.

12 Oklahoma St. (11-2) – Cowboys were one of the few Big 12 teams that didn't fall flat on their face during bowl season. How will they overcome the loss of OC Dana Holgerson?

13 Arkansas (10-3) – This team should have finished 12-1. Blew the game against Alabama and should have finished off Ohio St. Never would have thought 10-3 could be underachievement for this program

14 Texas A&M (9-4) – Aggies finally seem to have some forward momentum after a decade in the wilderness. Still don't have quite enough overall talent to compete with a team like LSU on a neutral field

15 Mississippi St. (9-4) - 5^th place in the division isn't supposed to end up 15^th in the country, but the top five in the SEC West went 44-2 against everyone else

16 Virginia Tech (11-3) – Blowout loss to Stanford more proof this program isn't quite elite and ACC is second-tier until someone dethrones them

17 Florida St. (10-4) – Seminoles are going to be very good next year. It appears the Sunshine state rivalry has swung back in their favor

18 Michigan St. (11-2) – I really wanted to drop Sparty lower for that shameful bowl performance (and almost did considering the Iowa blowout), but 11 wins in a BCS league, no matter how watered down is still impressive

19 Maryland (9-4) – Terps might about to be headed for the wilderness. This team fired its coach for changes sake like morons. If there is any justice, they will fall off the table entirely for the next decade or so

20 NC State (9-4) – This Wolfpack played worse than its record and has more talent than its record. They still confound me, even after the season.

21 Nebraska (10-4) – Another team that performed shamefully in the bowl season, though I can't really blame them after the Big 12 rigged the bowl matchups to give them a meaningless bad matchup in the same place as last season on the way out

22 Missouri (10-3) – Still like this team, but Gabbart's interception at the end was brutal and the loss in Lincoln was pretty ugly

23 Central Florida (11-3) – It was about as ugly as bowl games get, but the win over Georgia was needed for legitimacy

24 Utah (10-3) – Didn't really beat anyone and not really impressive along the way. Still ranked because conquests Air Force and San Diego St. were impressive during the bowl season

25 Tulsa (10-3) – Todd Graham did a great job in his four years here before leaving. This seems like the high point for the foreseeable future at this program

Others Considered

South Carolina (9-5) – Five losses is just too much if there are any bad losses and that Kentucky loss stands out like an albatross

USC (8-5) – Same as above (even if Washington managed to win its bowl game)

Connecticut (8-5) – Giving a token nod to the Big East champion here, nothing more. Not at all deserving of the top 25 with losses to Temple and Michigan on the resume along with a blowout bowl loss

San Diego St. (9-4) – Four losses by 15 combined points was a great season, maybe a little too good since Brady Hoke is now the coach at Michigan

Hawaii (10-4) – Up and down and all over the place, the co-WAC champs (yes they shared the title with Boise St. and Nevada) had losses outside of conference play to USC, Tulsa and Colorado

Final AubieVegas Regular Season Rankings

1 Auburn (13-0) – Cam Newton is going to win the Heisman barring some nefarious voting from the integrity block that fears another Reggie Bush situation.
2 Oregon (12-0) – Another week, another second half deluge though it wasn't nearly as big this week. The Ducks shouldn't count on one of their patented second half rallies against Auburn, by far the best second half team they have faced.
3 TCU (12-0) – Frogs might want to be in the national title game, but the Rose Bowl is a nice consolation for a non-BCS team considering the circumstances.
4 Wisconsin (11-1) – The Badgers offense will be tested for the first time in quite some time when they face TCU in the Rose Bowl.
5 Stanford (11-1) – The Cardinal pass the eye test, but they lack quality victories. A win over Virginia Tech if they get it will be the best of the season by far.
6 Ohio St. (11-1) – Ditto Stanford. Replace Virginia Tech with Arkansas.
7 Michigan St. (11-1) – Probably deserved better than their bowl fate considering the record and the win over Wisconsin. One misnomer: the Spartans are not in this spot because they started lower than Wisconsin and Ohio St. They are in this spot because they got obliterated by a 7-5 team and Ohio St, is the biggest marquee name in the Big Ten.
8 Arkansas (10-2) – The defense hasn't been great during this winning streak, but that might even make the Razorbacks more attractive to bowl organizers. Remember the factors for bowl committees: fan base, marquee name for TV, winning, big offense preferably with average defense.
9 Nevada (12-1) – Wolfpack did a good job of not letting down against Louisiana Tech finishing the season with the needed win to share the WAC title.
10 Boise St. (11-1) – Ho hum win over Utah St. Nothing to see here.
11 LSU (10-2) – The lack of a passing game really killed this team this season. Offensive Coordinator Gary Crowton is still likely on the hot seat going into bowl season.
12 Texas A&M (9-3) – The Aggies have been among the best teams in the country since Ryan Tannehill was inserted as the starting quarterback. If he had been the starter the whole season, the Aggies likely would have beaten both Oklahoma St. and Arkansas (nothing could have saved the Aggies in their terrible performance against Missouri)..
13 Oklahoma (11-2) – Another year, another Big 12 title. Ho hum. Years like this one at Oklahoma under Bob Stoops have generally included a run at the national title the next season.
14 Missouri (10-2) – Too bad the offense hasn't been at its usual level this season. If it was, the Tigers likely would have run the table opposite the best defense Missouri has ever had.
15 Virginia Tech (11-2) – 11 straight wins and the ACC title. The Hokies are the overlords of the ACC. All they need to do is figure out how to win big intersectional games. This years loss to Boise St. just follows the pattern started by losses in recent years both in the regular season and bowl games to the likes of LSU, USC, Auburn and Kansas.
16 Nebraska (10-3) – As it turns out, the offense really isn't all that better than last season. The defense is just as good though that doesn't help when a team can't score against any quality opponents.
17 Oklahoma St. (10-2) – The Cowboys offense is one of the best in the country. The defense, while improved over previous years was still the achilles heel of this team, as usual.
18 South Carolina (9-4) – Gamecocks just had no answer for Cam Newton. After the performance Saturday, maybe the original plan of stopping Newton as a passer is the better way to stop him. It didn't work either way for South Carolina, but at least they kept it close the first time.
19 Alabama (9-3) – As it turned out, this team was way overrated to begin the season. Other than the early road win over Arkansas, this team really didn't beat any one of true consequence.
20 Utah (10-2) – The Utes now get one last non-BCs all-star bowl against Boise St. before joining the big boy ranks. Next season, the Utes could very easily be back in the Las Vegas Bowl as the BCS league overlord.
21 West Virginia (9-3) – Mountaineers defense is really good. If the offense hadn't taken a nap midseason, the team would be 11-1 and headed to the Orange Bowl to play Virginia Tech.
22 Florida St. (9-4) – Just had no answers for Virginia Tech's offense. Things are finally looking up after a few years in the wilderness, but the talent level hasn't returned to normal yet.
23 Hawaii (10-3) – Warriors have one huge quality win over Nevada and not much else. Still, that is enough without any truly awful losses this season to get into the back of the rankings.
24 Mississippi St. (8-4) – Bulldogs had a great season, but still finished 5th in the SEC West That isn't good, but winning every non-division game helped quite a bit.
25 Maryland (8-4) – Terps have been very good this season on the scoreboard despite being average at everything. This is exactly like nearly every other Terps team in the last five seasons except last year's 2-10 disaster.

Others Considered
Nobody – If I could stop the list after 22, I would. Hawaii, Mississippi St. and Maryland don't deserve to be ranked and even Florida St. and West Virginia are marginal. Other than 8-4 NC State who lost every step up game and has a bad loss to East Carolina, nobody is even close. Sorry non-BCS teams, you need to avoid having four losses to get ranked or beat some quality non-conference team (Central Florida lost to both NC State and Kansas St.). Sorry other BCS conference teams, you need to avoid five losses.

Championship Week Top 25

1 Auburn (12-0) – Tigers finally move to number one. The sheer number of wins over highly ranked opponents trumps Oregon's dominance.

2 Oregon (11-0) – That said, Oregon is really 1A and if both Auburn and Oregon win the championship game will be one heck of a game.

3 TCU (12-0) – The Horned Frogs get to sit and wait and hope for a loss by one of the top two. I don't think it is coming, but if it is, Auburn is the more likely because of the quality of its opponent

4 Wisconsin (11-1) – Badgers are just owning teams right now. The question of course is how good are defenses Wisconsin is playing (really bad) and can this type of run extend against an elite defense like TCU's?

5 Stanford (11-1) – Cardinal are probably undeserving of their number four ranking and might even be undeserving of this rankings. They really haven't beaten anyone of note.

6 Ohio St. (11-1) – Buckeyes smoked Michigan as expected to share another Big Ten title. Now awaiting the call from the Sugar Bowl.

7 Michigan St. (11-1) – Sparty really should get a BCS game this season, but it won't because of the two teams from one league rule. Can we just trade Michigan St. out for the Big East champ but keep the payouts each would have received the same?

8 Arkansas (10-2) – Razorbacks are playing great football right now and would be incredibly dangerous in a playoff if there was one with its offense.

9 Nevada (11-1) – Wolfpack just pulled off biggest win in school history. Now must win at Louisiana Tech to finish off the league title campaign.

10 Boise St. (10-1) – Broncos have had a great run in the WAC. Let's not forget that as they move on to the Mountain West next season.

11 LSU (10-2) – Finally ran out of magical 4^th quarter plays. It was bound to happen eventually.

12 Texas A&M (9-3) – Now begins the Big 12 section of these rankings. Most of the next few teams are from that league and all have at least one win and one loss against the others top teams in the league. Texas A&M gets my nod as the top one because it is playing the best right now and the extra loss is to Arkansas, a loss I believe all of the others would have taken too.

13 Nebraska (10-2) – Winners of the North get a chance to take the conference title out of the league with them.

14 Missouri (10-2) – Nobody knew at the time that the blown lead to a very average Texas Tech would cost Missouri a shot at the league title.

15 South Carolina (9-3) – A team to break up the Big 12 monotony, they got housed by Arkansas early this month but have been amazing since. They have a decent chance to knock off Auburn Saturday.

16 Oklahoma (10-2) – Back to the Big 12 where inconsistent Oklahoma resides next. The Sooners are good enough to beat any team in these rankings including Auburn and Oregon on a given day, but also flaky enough to lose to nearly anyone on a given day as well.

17 Oklahoma St. (10-2) – The defense collapsed in the two biggest games of the year. It's still a problem. 51 points to Nebraska and 47 to Oklahoma won't cut it.

18 Virginia Tech (10-2) – Amazingly, Hokies are the first team to get through ACC regular season conference schedule unscathed since Florida St. in 2000.

19 Alabama (9-3) – Well that didn't go to plan. IF you had told Alabama fans they were going to have a 24-0 lead, they would have taken it too the bank. Now the Tide has some legit question marks going into next season.

20 Florida St. (9-3) – Seminoles are truly on the way back. I don't expect arrival to happen quite yet though as Virginia Tech is just a better team this season.

21 Utah (10-2) – Utes have struggled the last two weeks, but gotten two tough wins to close out its Mountain West tenure on a high note.

22 West Virginia (8-3) – Mountaineers have one of the best defenses in the country. They are the only one to not allow more than 21 points in a game all season.

23 Hawaii (9-3) – Now things get murky. Warriors have a couple of blight worthy losses to Colorado and USC, but have one huge win over Nevada, even if it came on the islands.

24 Mississippi St. (8-4) – Bulldogs don't really have any big wins considering the state of the Florida offense right now. They also have no bad losses for the first time in recent memory.

25 Maryland (8-4) – Terps finally did something well in throwing for over 400 yards in the upset of NC State over the weekend

Arizona (7-4) – Wildcats have lost three in a row and have watched signature victory Iowa fall off a cliff as well. A nice team that took advantage of a weak first half schedule and an overrated signature opponent.

Northern Illinois (10-2) – 10 wins is nice, but there is nothing of note in those ten wins and a loss to Iowa St. in blowout fashion on the resume.

NC State (8-4) – Wolfpack are here as much because they managed to beat Central Florida on the road as anything else. They are really inconsistent, just like most of their ACC brethren.

Central Florida (9-3) – Golden Knights are heavy favorites to win Conference USA again. George O'Leary has done a heck of a job with this team.

San Diego St. (8-4) – Aztecs most important item is keeping Brady Hoke. Everything else should be secondary.

Week 12 Top 25 - Oregon remains on Top

1 Oregon (10-0) – Almost losing at Cal is no worse than Auburn doing the same at Kentucky and the Ducks have obliterated everyone else including top 10 Stanford and USC while Auburn has struggled into the fourth quarter nearly every week.
2 Auburn (11-0) – That said about Oregon, Auburn has also played a much tougher schedule. I just happen to think that Auburn would have struggled just the same while still winning against many of the teams on Oregon's schedule.
3 Boise St. (9-0) – Get a promotion back to the number three spot with another blowout win and its not because TCU was not impressive, its because the rest of TCU's schedule weakened greatly and Utah is nowhere near what anyone thought.
4 TCU (11-0) – The win over San Diego St. was impressive despite the close final score. The situation actually reminds me of something that happened in 1994. That year, Penn St. allowed Indiana back into the game late after a slow start and dominating middle. The outcome was never really in doubt, but Nebraska jumped the Nittany Lions never to be seen again even though both teams went undefeated.
5 Wisconsin (9-1) – 83 points? Maybe just a little bit of overkill there Badgers. I know you need to be ranked highly but that was ridiculous. At what point does a team have enough?
6 LSU (9-1) – Somehow scored 51 points without getting 300 yards of total offense. Normally this might be a concern, but LSU has done this all season. In fact, the score was eye-popping because LSU finally annihilated someone on the scoreboard the way a team of their ranking should.
7 Ohio St. (9-1) – Buckeyes smoked Penn St. in the 2nd half. That was as complete a half as I have seen played against a quality opponent all season by anyone.
8 Stanford (9-1) – Cardinal struggled against Arizona St., but many other teams including Oregon, Wisconsin and USC have as well. Especially on the road, there is no need to punish Stanford for the closer than expected win.
9 Nebraska (9-1) – Cornhuskers seemed bored against Kansas, just as they did against South Dakota St. early this season. The next week, they obliterated Washington. Texas A&M better hope the same thing doesn't happen to them.
10 Oklahoma St. (9-1) – This kind of season was supposed to happen last season for the Cowboys. Kudos to Mike Gundy for getting it right this year with a team that doesn't have as much talent.
11 Alabama (8-2) – Tide blowout of Mississippi St. was likely their best game of the season. The offense will be fine whoever is in there against Auburn and the defense finally looked good again for the first time against a quality opponent since the Penn St. game.
12 Arkansas (8-2) – Razorbacks continue to roll up huge numbers. Since the back-to-back games against Alabama and Texas A&M where they were largely held in check, the Hogs have been frighteningly good on offense (of course that didn't help at Auburn).
13 Missouri (8-2) – The Tigers have been much better than advertised this season and have now won eight games for the 5th consecutive season. I never though I would see that.
14 Michigan St. (9-1) – A case could be made for Sparty to be ranked above Wisconsin and Ohio St. considering the head-to-head line. I have no desire to make it considering how bad the Iowa loss was. If Michigan St. wins out including a big road win at Penn St. I would be willing to revisit though.
15 Texas A&M (7-3) – Aggies probably should have made the quarterback change earlier than they did. If they had, maybe the Aggies would be in the driver's seat in the Big 12 South right now.
16 Oklahoma (8-2) – Still having problems on the road. Good luck the next two weeks. You are going to need it. At Baylor and at Oklahoma St. await.
17 South Carolina (7-3) – Congrats on winning the SEC East. Also, I am willing to write off the Arkansas game entirely as the game meant nothing as long as there are no slip ups against inferior opponents before the rematch with Auburn in Atlanta.
18 Virginia Tech (8-2) – Have made a nice recovery from the James Madison debacle. Now the toughest remaining game come. At Miami. The way Va Tech has been playing though makes me think they have this handled.
19 Nevada (9-1) – Won a tough game at Fresno St. Now just have to beat patsy New Mexico St. to set up a huge showdown with Boise St. to get a share of the conference title.
20 Miami (7-3) – Once again writing off loss number three which was to Virginia in the Jacory Harris injury game, at least for now. Steven Morris looks like the real deal at quarterback and might be better than Harris even now.
21 USC (7-3) – Another week, another win over an Arizona school and a resume that seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses. Too bad there wasn't a major national power on the non-conference schedule this season.
22 Mississippi St. (7-3) – Bulldogs might be overrated here, but the three losses aren't bad losses and the win at the Swamp (even if everyone else seems to be winning there this season) is still pretty valuable.
23 NC State (7-3) – Haven't lost to North Carolina since Tom O'Brien got to Raleigh and if they win this week, there is just one win between them and the division title.
24 Arizona (7-3) – Has a week off to figure things out, but the next game isn't likely to go very well. Oregon is just too good at home for this team.
25 Iowa (7-3) – Losing to Northwestern again is just bad. You would think by now that the Hawkeyes wouldn't overlook the Wildcats any more.

Others Considered
San Diego St. (7-3) – Impressive in defeat against TCU, the Aztecs have been good all season and are about to make coach Brady Hoke very rich, whether it be at San Diego St. or somewhere else.
Northwestern (7-3) – The win over Iowa validates this team to some degree, but I want to see them play this week without Dan Persa and I still remember that this team lost to Purdue and nearly lost to Minnesota.
Maryland (7-3) – Terps are shockingly still in the ACC Title chase a year after a 2-10 season despite not really doing anything well. I don't know if this is an indictment against the ACC (of which there are already many) or a sign of good coaching.
Michigan (7-3) – I know everybody on the Purdue offense is injured at this point. I don't care, holding them to 16 points is pretty good. Maybe the Michigan defense does have a prayer (or maybe I am just grading it on a different scale). I hope the run defense is ready for the battering ram that is coming at it this week.
Florida St. (7-3) – Seminoles just won the who can screw up tons of talent more bowl with Clemson. Of course it took a fluky 55 yard field goal to do it, but a win is a win.

Top 25 - TCU jumps Auburn, for now

1 Oregon (9-0) – Did nothing wrong while incinerating Washington. This week's game at Cal could have been difficult except for Kevin Riley's season ending injury. Brock Mansion has no chance against these guys based on what we saw at Washington St. last week.

2 TCU (10-0) – Impressively throttled Utah just like last season. Now its wait and see if someone above them in the BCS rankings loses. Considering what is happening at Auburn right now, it is a very good possibility.

3 Auburn (10-0) – As long as they keep winning, the Tigers will be fine. The drop to number two this week is as much punishment for scheduling an FCS team at this point in the season as anything. Win against Georgia Saturday and all is fine rankings wise.

4 Boise St. (8-0) – Broncos may be getting a raw deal this season, but at least in my eyes they have a chance to prove they are as good or better than TCU. All they have to do is continue to blow everyone up, road game at Nevada included.

5 Wisconsin (8-1) – As lucky as they were early on against Arizona St., the Badgers have morphed into the Big Ten's best team since then. Because of various national opinions and perceptions, Wisconsin has no chance at the title game even with losses in front of them. Enjoy the Rose Bowl guys (as long as you beat Michigan).

6 LSU (8-1) – LSU's route to the championship game (convoluted though this would seem): get Cam Newton declared ineligible, then win out and make the argument that the only game lost was to an ineligible player and that the team is really undefeated in the SEC.

7 Ohio St. (8-1) – Not sure if I like the Buckeyes this high, but they have been mostly blowing teams out despite lacking quality wins. Missing Michigan St. really hurts the Buckeyes this season.

8 Stanford (8-1) – Cardinal probably have best frontline players among one-loss teams, but the defensive depth that caused them to capitulate at Oregon is still a potential issue. That said, the Cardinal should easily cruise to 11-1 with the remainng schedule.

9 Nebraska (8-1) – The loss to Texas is terrible, but the rest of the body of work is really quite good. That said, the Cornhuskers should be happy with a possible Big 12 title. They most certainly would get blown up by Oregon and might by the other three undefeateds as well.

10 Oklahoma St. (8-1) – Cowboys might have the best route to the championship game of any one-loss contender. Win out and avenge the loss to Nebraska along the way and see what happenes. I don't think it helps, but it is more of a chance than many of the others ranked in front of them have.

11 Alabama (7-2) – Crimson Tide's win over Arkansas is all that keeps them this high at this point. Take that one game away and the resume looks very ordinary.

12 Arkansas (7-2) – Stuck with Alabama in these rankings, the Razorbacks offense has been nearly unstoppable, especially before the 4^th quarter, all season long. Too bad the defense sprung leaks at bad times against both teams from the state of Alabama.

13 Missouri (7-2) – Ugly loss to Texas Tech followed ugly loss to Nebraska. Tigers are near crisis point and are only ranked this highly because nearly everyone of consequence behind them also lost last week.

14 Mississippi St. (7-2) – Considering who the losses are against, the Bulldogs could make a case for being ranked higher. If they beat Alabama and Arkansas the next two weeks, expect to see them up with some of the elite one loss teams in these rankings.

15 Arizona (7-2) – Get the benefit of the doubt for beating Iowa still. Lose once more (other than the Oregon game) and the bottom likely falls out of this ranking.

16 Iowa (7-2) – Hawkeyes are stuck behind the head-to-head defeat at Arizona still. That said, the win over Michigan St. is strong and a win over Ohio St. would be even better.

17 Michigan St. (9-1) – Normally the record might push Spartans past Iowa despite head-to-head loss, but the depth of the beating only two weeks ago makes that difficult.

18 Oklahoma (7-2) – Sooners still have issues on the road and don't seem likely to correct them this season. That portends bad news at Oklahoma St. at the end of the season.

19 Virginia Tech (7-2) – It appears Boise St. beat the Hokies twice and that the James Madison loss was a fluke. Hokies are rolling in the ACC.

20 Utah (8-1) – With no elite wins and only three semi-quality wins (Pittsburgh, Iowa St and Air Force), Utes could be ranked nearly anywhere. I have no idea what to do with them.

21 Nevada (8-1) – Ditto Utah but with less quality wins (Cal?).

22 South Carolina (6-3) – Gamecocks looked horrible against Arkansas, but that was to be expected. Everyone knew the game meant absolutely nothing.

23 Miami (6-3) – I'm writing off the Virginia loss as a quarterback injury combined with wanting to try and save the redshirt of the obvious number two option. Steven Morris probably wins the Virginia game if he is in there from the point of Jacory Harris' injury which would have the Canes at 7-2.

24 Penn St. (6-3) – Nittany Lions have their own issue: it appears they chose the wrong quarterback to start this season. Matt McGloin's stats look very similar to Rob Bolden except one area: yards per pass. There, McGloin is good and Boldin in below average. The injury forced change has made Penn St. a much better team.

25 Florida (6-3) – Gators appear to have found their offense the last two weeks. That said, those defenses aren't exactly stellar. South Carolina is a much better test, even banged up though they are.

Others Considered

San Diego St. (7-2) – Only two plays from being undefeated, one of which was a replay call that got the officials suspended. This team is really good.

Texas A&M (6-3) – Aggies have improved considerably since Jerrod Johnson was benched. Still not sure how good they are though. May have been the beneficiary of some nice scheduling considering the opponents were inept Kansas and road challenged Oklahoma.

Michigan (6-3) – Wolverines can't stop anyone, but the offense is top five caliber. At the very least a fun team to watch.

Kansas St. (6-3) – Blowing out Texas just doesn't mean what it used to. Early Kansas St. conquest UCLA also pulled the feat off.

USC (6-3) – Trojans continue to hold their hex over Arizona St. Winning streak over the Sun Devils stretches all the way back to the Paul Hackett era.

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Week 10 Top 25

1 Oregon (8-0) – Ducks offense might be the best we've ever seen in college football. The real test will be when a team gets a full month to prepare. This offense failed against elite defenses twice in that situation last year.

2 Auburn (9-0) – Cam Newton probably shouldn't even play this week as Auburn hosts a disgraceful game against Chattanooga. When I was a student there I hated the annual 1AA patsy and I hate it even more now. You're telling me Louisiana Tech wasn't available this year?

3 Boise St. (7-0) – Broncos continue to win and continue to fall further out of the national title race. Really need Virginia Tech to continue playing good football as it hits the meat of its schedule.

4 TCU (9-0) – Baylor's continued strong play propped TCU up past Boise St. in the BCS a week earlier than expected. The question now is can they hold it by winning one of the biggest games of the season so far.

5 Wisconsin (7-1) – Why are they top one-loss team? Beat Ohio St., also beat Iowa on road (not much better than that this season) and Michigan St. just got killed by Hawkeyes making head-to-head loss less relevant. They also have a one-two punch at running back that is having a better season than the one at Alabama.

6 Alabama (7-1) – They are good, but the resume isn't great yet. Florida and Penn St. fell off the map making Arkansas the only win of note thus far. Win out over LSU, Mississippi St. and Auburn and the resume will be in line with the ranking.

7 Utah (8-0) – Utes have still played nobody, but the test from Air Force will help a lot when the TCU game is close in the 4^th quarter.

8 LSU (7-1) – Tigers should be ready to play as Alabama comes to town, but the 230 CT start hurts as does the lack of any real offense should they need to come from behind.

9 Nebraska (7-1) – Get a lucky bump because of head-to-head win over Missouri and my belief that Missouri is still pretty good. The loss to Texas is garish.

10 Missouri (7-1) – Gave a good effort after being run out of the building in the first quarter, but a good effort doesn't always win games, especially when the execution is bad.

11 Ohio St. (8-1) – Buckeyes blew up Minnesota as expected. Everything rides on the Nov. 20 game at Iowa for them.

12 Oklahoma (7-1) – Sooners smoked Colorado at home (who doesn't) and now await winner of Oklahoma St.-Baylor game to determine co-front runner in Big 12 South. Yes it really has come to that.

13 Stanford (7-1) – Andrew Luck has looked flawless most of the season so far. He was even good in the loss at Oregon. I don't expect this week's big home test against Arizona to be any different.

14 Arizona (7-1) – The question in that Stanford-Arizona game is who will be the Arizona quarterback and will he be effective. Matt Scott has been good, but Washington and UCLA are among the worst in the conference on defense while Nick Foles is still hurt but may play Saturday night.

15 Iowa (6-2) – I think the Hawkeyes are better than this, but they can't be ranked in front of a team they lost to who also has a better record.

16 Oklahoma St. (7-1) – I am starting to believe after this team won without its star receiver and with its defense.

17 Michigan St. (8-1) – Sparty finally got nailed at Iowa. Now they need to refocus and smoke the teams they need to. Style points are now necessary to win a BCS tiebreaker that will be likely.

18 South Carolina (6-2) – Marcus Lattimore is the offense and he was needed after the defense took the second half off allowing the inept Tennessee offense back into the game.

19 Mississippi St. (7-2) – It is a legit question: how will the team react to the death of teammate Nick Bell? The Bulldogs are in the midst of a bye week to grieve right now before playing Alabama.

20 Virginia Tech (6-2) – There are some making good points that Va. Tech hasn't played anyone of note during its six game winning streak. While that may be true, the streak has been impressive as the Hokies offense has exploded for the first time since Michael Vick was the quarterback.

21 Arkansas (6-2) – Ryan Mallett broke the school record for passing yards again. This is either a sign that there is no passing tradition at all at Arkansas or the Razorbacks are playing way too many patsies.

22 Baylor (7-2) – Four wins from one of the most improbable conference title seasons ever. Of course, a case can be made these are all tougher than anything the Bears have seen other than TCU.

23 NC State (6-2) – Gut check win at home for Wolfpack throws ACC Atlantic into chaos and puts NC State in control of the division.

24 Florida St. (6-2) – Seminoles may have just coughed up the Atlantic division with Christian Ponder's fumble. Ouch. Same old ACC.

25 Illinois (5-3) – Best three loss team in country is surprising Illinois. Beat Michigan on Saturday and its likely the Illini will finish with nine wins. A shocking development since coach Ron Zook used the hire a new staff to keep a job for an extra year plan in the off season. This appears to be a rare time where it will work for longer.

Others Considered

USC (5-3) – The loss to Washington is awful so, despite playing well in every other game, the Trojans can't be ranked with three losses.

Hawaii (7-2) – Carrying a loss to USC and one bad one to Colorado. Ouch.

Nevada (7-1) – The best case of any of these teams, but a home win over Cal is virtually worthless right now.

Maryland (6-2) – The West Virginia loss looks worse right now and while Clemson is probably forgivable considering the schizo nature of that program, 31-7 is not.

Florida (5-3) – The debacle in the swamp on offense against Mississippi St. is still too fresh to re rank the Gators, especially since the win was over Georgia and that almost shouldn't count.

Week 9 Top 25

1 Oregon (7-0) – The point a minute offense goes on the road where its not quite a point a minute. It probably won't matter at USC where there are major defensive problems and a lack of depth, but it could catch up later on at Cal, a team that looks like world beaters at home.

2 Auburn (8-0) – Cam Newton is the best player in the country and Nick Fairley might be the best defensive player in the country. That equals one of the best teams in the country, but with Georgia having rounded into form, that game looks nasty along with the Alabama game.

3 Boise St. (6-0) – Play tonight against Louisiana Tech. Ho hum. Wake me next Saturday when Hawaii comes to town and the real conference schedule (if there is a real portion in the WAC) begins.

4 TCU (8-0) – Horned Frogs destroyed Air Force and have given up 10 points in four conference games. With UNLV on the slate this week, it could become 10 points against in five conference games.

5 Missouri (7-0) – Tigers are for real. That probably doesn't matter with a road trip to Lincoln to play Nebraska.

6 Michigan St. (8-0) – It's now a one game season for Sparty. Win Saturday at Iowa and cruise the rest of the way with no Ohio St. on the schedule.

7 Alabama (7-1) – The whole bye week things doesn't matter this week. The Tide have a bye too and should be very scared of LSU. The Tigers have been lucky, but the defense is really really good. Despite all the yards they gave up to Auburn, they held the Tigers to 24 points. DO that at home and it could be enough against Alabama.

8 Wisconsin (7-1) – Badgers have the best back-to-back wins of the season so far with the victories over Ohio St. and Iowa in consecutive weeks. Now they need to take care of business and get some help to win the Big Ten.

9 Utah (7-0) – Utes continues to blow teams up on the JV portion of the schedule. This week they move into slightly more difficult territory though Air Force has lost most of its luster the last two weeks losing to San Diego St. and getting destroyed at TCU.

10 LSU (7-1) – The luck finally ran out for Les Miles and his Tigers. They now need a lot of help in the SEC title race, help they aren't likely to get.

11 Ohio St. (7-1) – Buckeyes are in the same spot as Wisconsin, but probably need more help with no really difficult games left for the Badgers. The way things are going, Ohio St. should enjoy Orlando. They haven't been there for a bowl game in quite some time.

12 Oklahoma (6-1) – Sooners are actually still in decent shape in the national title race as the computers still love them (5^th place) and there is the possibility of a rematch with Missouri.

13 Nebraska (6-1) – Cornhuskers got the gut check win they needed over Oklahoma St. Now they must win again or the Big 12 title is completely gone as a loss to Missouri would leave them two games behind and without the tiebreaker.

14 Arizona (6-1) – Backup quarterback Matt Scott was impressive against Washington and the Wildcats are in capable hands. It won't help them when they go to Oregon, but it could lead to a 10-2 regular season.

15 Stanford (6-1) – Washington St. week is always a good week to have the off week in Pac-10 play. Cardinal were not impressive at all, but they got the much needed win.

16 Florida St. (5-1) – ACC title hopes are on the line this week for the Seminoles at NC State. Win and it should be clear sailing even if there is a slip up somewhere. Lose and nearly everyone in the division is in play as usual.

17 South Carolina (5-2) – As long as Marcus Lattimore plays, I am confident this team will win the SEC East and prove worthy of being ranked somewhere. Without him, they are as good (or bad) as everyone else in the sad sack SEC East.

18 Iowa (5-2) – Hawkeyes didn't drop too far after home loss to Wisconsin because the teams behind them lack the wins needed to jump them. I wish the rankings could be cut off here. Nobody else is really worthy and even these guys are way higher than a team with their resume would normally be at this point in the season.

19 Virginia Tech (6-2) – Exhibit 1 for my point in the Iowa blip. Virginia Tech has done nothing out of conference play, play in a weak conference and lost to an FCS team. Yet I have them in the top 20.

20 Mississippi St. (6-2) – Bulldogs have done a good job to reach top 25, but they really aren't that good as the close game against UAB showed. Probably due for a big fall with Alabama and Arkansas still on the schedule.

21 Arkansas (5-2) – This team stinks in the second half of games. The question is if they can get enough of a lead in the first half to hold on for the win. Against elite teams, that strategy hasn't worked all that well.

22 Miami (6-2) – I'm not sold on Miami and think they are going to get run by Virginia Tech just like they did against Florida St. and Ohio St. That said six wins is six wins and Pittsburgh is playing a little better to give one of the wins some extra value.

23 Oklahoma St. (6-1) – No defense at all in Stillwater. Its back to where this team was two years ago as opposed to last years underrated defense and overrated offense.

24 Baylor (6-2) – Bears at six wins, bowl eligible and in top 25 is more an indictment of everyone else than show of Baylor strength. The offense is really good though.

25 USC (5-2) – I still don't think they are any good at all, but nobody else is either and considering they won at Hawaii, they get the nod here over Hawaii and Nevada who lost on the islands.

Others considered

Hawaii (6-2) – Too bad they didn't beat USC. Would be a shoo-in for the rankings even with the ugly loss to Colorado on the record.

Kansas St. (5-2) – Wildcats are good, but not great or even very good. Should manage eight wins which might get them back into top 25 at the rate things are going this season.

West Virginia (5-2) – Ugly loss to Syracuse, but everyone knew something like that was coming for this team at some point. Win a couple of Big East games against even average teams and the Mountaineers should be back.

Nevada (6-1) – Loss to Hawaii is still too recent to rank this team in front of Warriors. Don't have signature win either considering everyone who Cal has played on the road has had similar results against the Golden Bears.

NC State (5-2) – Top 25 teams don't lose to East Carolina this season.

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