Post-season Wrap up – Computer Rankings

College football season is over :(

It's time to take a look at the season that was beginning today with the overall computer rankings, post bowl game.

Top 25

1 Auburn (14-0, 195.14) – Of course the Tigers are the top team with wins over five teams in this top 25 and two more wins over South Carolina who is ranked 26. In any sort of resume ranking that does not included margin of victory (like this one), Auburn absolutely has to be the top team.

2 Oklahoma (12-2, 172.29) – Oklahoma is highly ranked in this computer as usual. A strong non-conference schedule plus drawing the better teams from the Big 12 North means a very high ranking.

3 TCU (13-0, 167.54) – TCU is nowhere near Auburn in part because they played an overall schedule weaker than every BCS league team according to the computer. Some of that, of course was not playing themselves as every other Mountain West team played a schedule that equaled much or the Big Ten, Big East and ACC schedules.

4 Stanford (12-1, 167.08) – Cardinal are ranked higher than Pac-10 brethren Oregon in part because of better non-conference schedule and in part because the win over Virginia Tech makes up some of the ground lost by Oregon's win over Stanford.

5 Ohio St. (12-1, 162.00) – While the Buckeyes beat no elite teams other than Arkansas, they beat a lot of above average teams and didn't lose a lot of games or lose to a bad team.

6 LSU (11-2, 159.46) – Once again, a strong non-conference schedule carries a team as North Carolina and West Virginia are a lot more adventurous than many others attempted. Add a bowl win over Texas A&M and the resume looks really good.

7 Oregon (12-1, 154.85) – Next season's non-conference game should fix this problem. Tennessee was way way down this season. LSU next year won't be.

8 Oklahoma St. (11-2, 147.38) – Cowboys just won a lot of games to get this high. Also benefited from being in a Big 12 that was and still is overrated in the computers.

9 Missouri (10-3, 142.46) – Most Overrated Team – And now we see the proof of the overratedness of the Big 12 in the computers. Missouri's non-conference wins over Miami (OH), San Diego St. and Illinois all carried a ton more weight than it was thought they would before the season. Other than Illinois, the others were meant to be cupcakes, not 9 or 10 win teams.

10 Boise St. (12-1, 139.00) – Broncos win over Virginia Tech turned out to be one of the valuable of the season by anyone despite the Hokies problems against elite teams, though the win confirms Boise as an elite team, at least for this season.

11 Alabama (10-3, 138.54) – It seems nearly everybody (including the computers) agrees on Alabama: supremely talented that underachieved a little bit and had some bad luck. The result is a ranking between 8 and 12 and not many people will argue that.

12 Michigan St. (11-2, 136.62) – Sparty is also pretty overrated by this computer, but the lack of margin of victory explains that. If margin of victory was included, the losses to Alabama and Iowa would look much worse while many of the close wins would also cause problems for the Spartans.

13 Nevada (13-1, 135.29) – The best season in Nevada history could have been better, a lot better, if the Wolfpack had shown up for the first half in Hawaii (they trailed 17-0 at halftime en route to a 27-21 loss). That said, an undefeated Nevada was never going to the BCS as long as TCU remained undefeated.

14 Virginia Tech (11-3, 132.29) – Hokies loss to James Madison, even with the short week and hungover from Boise explanations is still the most befuddling loss of the season, by far.

15 Arkansas (10-3, 130.92) – It seems this team should be higher with its wins over Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi St. and South Carolina and only elite losses, but the Razorbacks didn't even attempt to play even an average team other than Texas A&M in the non-conference

16 Wisconsin (11-2, 130.08) – Most Underrated Team. Rankings like this are why many people look at the computers and yell and scream to high heaven when they get a shot to influence the national title race. The reason of course is Wisconsin's schedule that in the non-conference included an average at best Arizona St. team and three cupcakes including San Jose St. and Austin Peay along with not missing any of the awful teams in Big Ten play.

17 Texas A&M (9-4, 128.92) – I have been really high on this team all season for some reason. Oddly, except Oklahoma, every team the Aggies beat is ranked below them and all four teams that beat Texas A&M are ranked higher than this.

18 Florida St. (10-4, 124.36) – Seminoles will be overwhelming ACC favorites next season after finally getting thins turned around this year. It turns out the Oklahoma loss wasn't as bad as everyone thought when it happened.

19 Utah (10-3, 117.85) – Another overrated team, the Utes benefit from Notre Dame's winning streak to end the season helping to not kill the ranking and the surprising strength of the middle of the Mountain West this season

20 Nebraska (10-4, 113.29) – Cornhuskers were awful in the bowl game, but the reason for the ranking being down here is the terrible non-conference schedule (Washington was the only team with a pulse) and the ugly loss to Texas (not to mention losing the rematch to Washington in the bowl game).

21 NC State (9-4, 108.92) – Wolfpack seemed a lot more Jekyll and Hyde-ish then they actually were. With the exception of a bad loss to East Carolina, the only losses were toss ups at best and this team finally didn't lose to anyone terrible in conference play, the first time in quite some time that can be said.

22 West Virginia (9-4, 103.15) – The Big East does get a top 25 team here, somehow. The Mountaineers can thank win over Maryland outside of the conference and LSU's elite status for that. It certainly wasn't earned by going 5-2 in the crappy Big East.

23 Notre Dame (8-5, 102.15) – Everyone thought the Irish were cooked after losing to Tulsa. It turns out that wasn't a bad loss and Notre Dame was just fine. In fact, had Notre Dame won that game and the Navy game the week before, they would have been in the top 15, even with the loss to Michigan (that was a worse loss than losing to either Tulsa or Navy turned out to be)

24 Mississippi St. (9-4, 101.08) – Proof the SEC West was the best collection of team in college football: Mississippi St. won nine games and got into the top 25 despite not winning a game against a team that finished above them in the division standings. It helps to beat everyone else on the schedule.

25 Maryland (9-4, 100.54) – Terps turned out to be one of the biggest surprises of the season. Would have finished higher if the bowl opponent had been a bit better. East Carolina was one of the worst teams to make a bowl game this season (and was the worst on defense).

College Football Computer Rankings – Final Regular Season

I know these are a week after the BCS. I don't care. The Army-Navy game matters in the computers and if you don't believe one game can change things, look at the controversy that one FCS playoff game caused when its omission kept Boise St. from being ranked correctly in front of LSU in the BCS Standings (the official standings were changed).

With each team will be its conference standing according to the computer and its overall record. There are some major differences from both the BCS computers and the human polls. I suspect that is because this formula values schedules almost as much as victories. As a note, Boise St. would have likely finished 5^th in front of Ohio St. had they beaten Nevada. As for Oklahoma, the computer loves the Big 12 this season (mirroring the BCS computers) and the win over Florida St. is one of the most valuable non-conference victories of the season (along with Boise St. over Virginia Tech, Arkansas over Texas A&M and Notre Dame over Utah). Also, Auburn is such a dominant number one here that had they lost to South Carolina, they would still likely be the top team and would certainly be no worse than number two.

Top 25

1 Auburn – SEC #1, 13-0

2 Oklahoma – Big 12 #1, 11-2

3 Oregon – Pac 10 #1, 12-0

4 Stanford – Pac 10 #2, 11-1

5 Ohio St. – Big 10 #1, 11-1

6 TCU – MWC #1, 12-0

7 Missouri – Big 12 #2, 10-2

8 LSU – SEC #2, 10-2

9 Michigan St. – Big 10 #2, 11-1

10 Wisconsin – Big 10 #3, 11-1

11 Boise St. – WAC #1, 11-1

12 Virginia Tech – ACC #1, 11-2

13 Oklahoma St. – Big 12 #3, 10-2

14 Arkansas – SEC #3, 10-2

15 Texas A&M – Big 12 #4, 9-3

16 Nevada – WAC #2, 12-1

17 Alabama – SEC #4, 9-3

18 Nebraska – Big 12 #5, 10-3

19 Utah – MWC #2, 10-2

20 Florida St. – ACC #2, 9-4

21 West Virginia – Big East #1, 9-3

22 South Carolina – SEC #5, 9-4

23 Navy – Ind #1, 9-3

24 NC State – ACC #3, 8-4

25 USC – Pac 10 #3, 8-5

Conference Rankings (including FCS conferences)

This section will include the best and worst teams in each league and their rankings just to get a snapshot of the range teams in each conference fell into. This takes into account games through last weekend meaning it includes the Army-navy game, SWAC championship and FCS Quarterfinal games played over the weekend.

1 Big 12 – Best Team: Oklahoma (2), Worst Team: Kansas (105)

2 SEC – Best Team: Auburn (1), Worst Team: Vanderbilt (157)

3 Big 10 – Best Team: Ohio St. (5), Worst Team: Minnesota (127)

4 Pac-10 – Best Team: Oregon (3), Worst Team: Washington St. (133)

5 FBS Independents – Navy (23), Notre Dame (27), Army (101)

6 ACC – Best Team: Virginia Tech (12), Worst Team: Wake Forest (128)

7 Big East – Best Team: West Virginia (21), Worst Team: Rutgers (122)

8 WAC – Best Team: Boise St. (11), Worst Team: San Jose St. (193)

9 Mountain West – Best Team: TCU (6), Worst Team: New Mexico (195)

10 FCS Colonial (CAA) – Best Team: Delaware (31), Worst Team: Towson (213)

11 Conference USA – Best Team: Tulsa (38), Worst Team: Memphis (201)

12 FCS Southern – Best Team: Appalachian St. (56), Worst Team: Citadel (203)

13 MAC – Best Team: Northern Illinois (53), Worst Team: Akron (218)

14 FCS Missouri Valley – Best Team: North Dakota St. (98), Worst Team: Youngstown St. (198)

15 FCS Independents – Old Dominion (117), Georgia St. (132), Lamar (194)

16 FCS Big Sky – Best Team: Eastern Washington (62), Worst Team: Idaho St. (233)

17 FCS Southland – Best Team: Stephen F. Austin (81), Worst Team: SE Louisiana (229)

18 FCS Ivy League – Best Team: Penn (67), Worst Team: Princeton (238)

19 FCS SWAC – Best Team: Texas Southern (82), Worst Team: Mississippi Valley St. (242)

20 Sun Belt – Best Team: Troy (115), Worst Team: Western Kentucky (212)

21 FCS Ohio Valley – Best Team: Jacksonville St. (85), Worst Team: Austin Peay (231)

22 FCS Northeast (NEC) – Best Team: Robert Morris (100), Worst Team: St. Francis (PA) (239)

23 FCS Great West – Best Team: UC Davis (140), Worst Team: North Dakota (216)

24 FCS Patriot – Best Team: Lehigh (84), Worst Team: Bucknell (241)

25 FCS Pioneer – Best Team: Jacksonville (87), Worst Team: Valparaiso (240 and would be worse, much worse if margin of victory was considered)

26 FCS MEAC – Best Team: Bethune-Cookman (102), Worst Team: Howard (244 and Last, 243 North Carolina A&T is also in this league)

27 FCS Big South – Best Team: Liberty (143), Worst Team: Presbyterian (234)

Yes, I know that most of the FBS teams can beat most of the FCS teams. It's just that pretty much all of the FCS teams that would have any chance whatsoever in games against the bottom half of FBS leagues are all in the same conferences in the FCS. The CAA, Southern, Missouri Valley and Big Sky have pretty much had the market cornered on the FCS title for awhile now and that isn't going to change. Remember also that James Madison, conqueror of Virginia Tech, finished 8^th out of 10 teams in the CAA. That league in particular has some very good teams it (Villanova didn't win that league either and they were unlucky to beat Temple, a team that finished ranked 61 despite its lack of a bowl bid).

For Entertainment Only – Computer Rankings Week 3

Below is the new top 25. For those who follow the actual BCS computers, notice that this looks a little different from those that have been released. Much of that is because the computer rankings the BCS rankings uses that have released rankings thus far use last season's results until a certain point in the season so there is a baseline starting point. Those that haven't been released yet are likely to look more like this: chaotic and seemingly inaccurate at this point in time.

1. Arizona (Pac-10, 3-0)
2. Oklahoma (Big 12, 3-0)
3. Missouri (Big 12, 3-0)
4. Temple (MAC, 3-0)
5. Stanford (Pac-10, 3-0)
6. Alabama (SEC, 3-0)
7. Texas (Big 12, 3-0)
8. NC State (ACC, 3-0)
9. Florida (SEC, 3-0)
10. South Carolina (SEC, 3-0)
11. Auburn (SEC, 3-0)
12. Michigan (Big Ten, 3-0)
13. TCU (MWC, 3-0)
14. Nevada (WAC, 3-0)
15. Northwestern (Big Ten, 3-0)
16. Boise St. (WAC, 3-0)
17. USC (Pac-10, 3-0)
18. Michigan St. (Big Ten, 3-0)
19. Fresno St. (WAC, 3-0)
20. Nebraska (Big 12, 3-0)
21. Wisconsin (Big Ten, 3-0)
22. Oklahoma St. (Big 12, 3-0)
23. Appalachian St. (FCS Southern, 3-0)
24. Penn St. (Big Ten, 2-1)
25. Florida St. (ACC, 2-1)

Thoughts on the rankings and conference rankings after the jump

For Entertainment Only – Computer Rankings Week 2

Yes, aubievegas has computer rankings. Once there is more data in the system, these will look a lot more accurate. For those who don't know how computer rankings work, data from the results is entered into the computer with a formula to rank team based on the results of the games. As there are more games played and therefore more results entered, the rankings will become more and more accurate.

Over the last few seasons I have kept up these rankings for my own entertainment making tweaks here and there with the intention of eventually publishing them during a season. Here they are and feel free to laugh as them because they are pretty funny right now. I only publish now for entertainment purposes. Take these with a grain of salt until at least the first week of October, but likely until the beginning of November.

In these past years, the system has been quite accurate once I worked the initial kinks out of the system. In 2006, it said Florida was deserving over Michigan and also thought one-loss Big East champ Louisville was more deserving than the Wolverines too. Of course after the bowl season, Florida was the champ and Louisville finished in the top 5 of the polls.

In the crazy 2007 season, the computer liked LSU virtually from beginning to end with the Tigers never dropping below number two after the early season win over Virginia Tech. It also liked Big East champ West Virginia despite the loss to Pitt at the end to go to the title game over Ohio St. and all the other flawed contenders. As for the Buckeyes, they were clearly overrated in a weak Big Ten and the computer had Ohio St. pegged 5^th going into the bowl season. We all know what happened to Ohio St. while West Virginia steamrolled favored Oklahoma. Also of note, Hawaii who reached the BCS played the schedule ranked 120 and last (no FCS teams then) and was ranked outside the top 25 by the computer. Interestingly enough, the schedule bump from playing Georgia moved Hawaii to the 25^th ranking after the bowl season, but everybody now knows that team had no business in the Sugar Bowl unless they bought tickets.

In 2008, the system favored Oklahoma in the Big 12 tiebreaker as every computer did much to the consternation of the people who favored Texas by head-to-head victory. It also liked Florida over Alabama even before the SEC title game when the Gators ended Alabama's perfect season. Also, Utah, while perfect and deserving of its BCS berth finished 4^th after the bowl games behind Florida, Oklahoma and Texas and was 7^th when the regular season finished.

Last season, the computer continued its good run (though it absolutely hated Boise St. in part because it didn't like the Pac-10 or its champ Oregon). Interestingly, the computer thought Florida was the 2^nd best team after the regular season even with Texas undefeated and the Gators having just lost to Alabama. After watching the bowl game, a case can certainly be made that that was the case.

One final note, the system ranks FCS teams so some of them do appear in the top 25 here. Last season, only FCS runner up Villanova finished in the top 25 and that was on the strength of playing in the strongest FCS league, reaching the championship game and beating nine-win Temple during the season. Many more teams were ranked highly, especially early in the season.

Current Top 25 and Conference Rankings after the jump