For Entertainment Only – Computer Rankings Week 2

Yes, aubievegas has computer rankings. Once there is more data in the system, these will look a lot more accurate. For those who don't know how computer rankings work, data from the results is entered into the computer with a formula to rank team based on the results of the games. As there are more games played and therefore more results entered, the rankings will become more and more accurate.

Over the last few seasons I have kept up these rankings for my own entertainment making tweaks here and there with the intention of eventually publishing them during a season. Here they are and feel free to laugh as them because they are pretty funny right now. I only publish now for entertainment purposes. Take these with a grain of salt until at least the first week of October, but likely until the beginning of November.

In these past years, the system has been quite accurate once I worked the initial kinks out of the system. In 2006, it said Florida was deserving over Michigan and also thought one-loss Big East champ Louisville was more deserving than the Wolverines too. Of course after the bowl season, Florida was the champ and Louisville finished in the top 5 of the polls.

In the crazy 2007 season, the computer liked LSU virtually from beginning to end with the Tigers never dropping below number two after the early season win over Virginia Tech. It also liked Big East champ West Virginia despite the loss to Pitt at the end to go to the title game over Ohio St. and all the other flawed contenders. As for the Buckeyes, they were clearly overrated in a weak Big Ten and the computer had Ohio St. pegged 5^th going into the bowl season. We all know what happened to Ohio St. while West Virginia steamrolled favored Oklahoma. Also of note, Hawaii who reached the BCS played the schedule ranked 120 and last (no FCS teams then) and was ranked outside the top 25 by the computer. Interestingly enough, the schedule bump from playing Georgia moved Hawaii to the 25^th ranking after the bowl season, but everybody now knows that team had no business in the Sugar Bowl unless they bought tickets.

In 2008, the system favored Oklahoma in the Big 12 tiebreaker as every computer did much to the consternation of the people who favored Texas by head-to-head victory. It also liked Florida over Alabama even before the SEC title game when the Gators ended Alabama's perfect season. Also, Utah, while perfect and deserving of its BCS berth finished 4^th after the bowl games behind Florida, Oklahoma and Texas and was 7^th when the regular season finished.

Last season, the computer continued its good run (though it absolutely hated Boise St. in part because it didn't like the Pac-10 or its champ Oregon). Interestingly, the computer thought Florida was the 2^nd best team after the regular season even with Texas undefeated and the Gators having just lost to Alabama. After watching the bowl game, a case can certainly be made that that was the case.

One final note, the system ranks FCS teams so some of them do appear in the top 25 here. Last season, only FCS runner up Villanova finished in the top 25 and that was on the strength of playing in the strongest FCS league, reaching the championship game and beating nine-win Temple during the season. Many more teams were ranked highly, especially early in the season.

Current Top 25 and Conference Rankings after the jump

1. South Carolina (2-0, SEC)
2. Oklahoma (2-0, Big 12)
3. Fresno St. (1-0, WAC)
4. Michigan (2-0, Big Ten)
5. USC (2-0, Pac-10)
6. Florida (2-0, SEC)
7. Oklahoma St. (2-0, Big 12)
8. Texas (2-0, Big 12)
9. Michigan St. (2-0, Big Ten)
10. Temple (2-0, MAC)
11. Missouri (2-0, Big 12)
12. Arizona (2-0, Pac-10)
13. Maryland (2-0, ACC)
14. Boston College (2-0, ACC)
15. Texas A&M (2-0, Big 12)
16. Houston (2-0, C-USA)
17. Northern Iowa (1-0, FCS Missouri Valley)
18. Massachusetts (2-0, FCS CAA)
19. Arizona St. (2-0, Pac-10)
20. Indiana (1-0, Big Ten)
21. Furman (1-0, FCS Southern)
22. Notre Dame (1-1, Ind)
23. Toledo (1-1, MAC)
24. Hawaii (1-1, WAC)
25. BYU (1-1, MWC)

As you might can tell here, things are a bit fluid. With only the games played so far, the computer can't even yet tell what teams are patsies and what teams aren't leading to oddball things like Arizona St. being ranked in the top 20 after having beaten two FCS teams and Fresno St. being ranked 3^rd with just one win (admittedly a likely quality one over Cincinnati). Oddly, we also have BYU ranked 25^th despite its ugly head-to-head loss to Air Force on Saturday (Falcons are ranked 37^th).

Conference Rankings (including FCS conferences) – these are much more likely to give us an accurate picture earlier in the season. Last season, the order didn't change at all from the middle of October until the Pac-10 soiled itself during the bowl season. Right now, take these as signs about the future this season. The BCS leagues will still likely rise to the top and the FCS leagues will likely sink as the season goes on. Also, some leagues (SEC in particular) are ranked lower early on because they have already played conference games meaning more losses early on. Once that evens out, those that play early conference games will usually rise provided they win their October and November non-conference games. As a note, the Ivy League is not ranked because it doesn't begin play until next week.

1. Big 12 (highest: Oklahoma (2), lowest: Colorado (127))
2. Pac-10 (highest: USC (5), lowest: Oregon St. (130))
3. Big Ten (highest: Michigan (4), lowest: Wisconsin (132))
4. SEC (highest: South Carolina (1), lowest: Tennessee (169))
5. ACC (highest: Maryland (13), lowest: Clemson (172))
6. WAC (highest: Fresno St. (3), lowest: Idaho (136))
7. Mountain West (highest: BYU (25), lowest: Colorado St. (183))
8. Big East (highest: South Florida (49), lowest: Syracuse (193))
9. Conference USA (highest: Houston (16), lowest: UAB (231))
10. MAC (highest: Temple (10), lowest: Eastern Michigan (235))
11. FCS CAA (highest: Massachusetts (18), lowest: Rhode Island (237))
12. FCS Missouri Valley (highest: Northern Iowa (17), lowest: Western Illinois (202))
13. FCS Southern (highest: Furman (19), lowest: Samford (196)
14. FCS Southland (highest: Stephen F. Austin (47), lowest: Northwestern St. (216))
15. FCS Big Sky (highest: Weber St. (61), lowest: Northern Colorado (212))
16. Sun Belt (highest: Middle Tennessee (91), lowest: North Texas (194))
17. FCS Patriot (highest: Georgetown (131), lowest: Bucknell (221))
18. FCS Great West (highest: Cal Poly (73), lowest: North Dakota (236))
19. FCS Northeast (highest: Duquesne (72), lowest: Monmouth (244, last))
20. FCS Big South (highest: Liberty (38), lowest: Coastal Carolina (220))
21. FCS Pioneer (highest: Dayton (63), lowest: Marist (229))
22. FCS Ohio Valley (highest: Jacksonville St. (28), lowest: UT-Martin (240))
23. FCS SWAC (highest: Jackson St. (63), lowest: Texas Southern (239))
24. FCS MEAC (highest: Morgan St. (97), lowest: Delaware St. (243))

Reaction – Surprisingly, the WAC looks halfway decent so far this season. It likely won't drop below 8^th barring a conference collapse over the next two weeks. That is good news for Boise St. who likely can count on the same kind of support from the actual BCS computers. Last year, the Broncos struggled to remain in the top 20 on this computer because of its schedule. In the BCS leagues, the SEC is ranked 4^th, but as I explained earlier, the three conference games played thus far hurt the league temporarily.