Here we go, a chance for me to get skewered (and believe me, there is one team I completely missed on preseason more than almost anyone along with the usual array of hits and misses everyone has). That said, I'm starting with what I did right. I want to feel good about myself before I criticize myself and allow all my readers to make fun of me. Then I will offer some defense, flimsy though it may be for my awful picks from the preseason.
Teams I pegged pretty well (preseason ranking in parenthesis)
LSU (1) – Obviously I had the Tigers pegged, until the National Title Game.
Alabama (2) – Same with the Crimson Tide.
Boise St. (5) – I thought Boise St. had a loss in there somewhere, I just didn't know where.
Oregon (7) – Finished higher than this, but this ranking was based on a two-loss projection so I will say I had it right.
South Carolina (12) – And to think I was worried that I had overrated this team in the preseason.
Michigan St. (14) – Finished a bit higher, but was ranked right in this area before the crapshoot that is the bowl game.
Georgia (15) – Ditto Michigan St.
West Virginia (16) – If not for October this team could have finished in the top 5.
Teams that I was a bit off, but within reason
Oklahoma (3) – Injuries destroyed the offense in November. Still, this wasn't a top 5 team. Top 10 with all the players most likely.
Wisconsin (4) – Beaten on a pair of Hail Mary's and that is it in the regular season.
Virginia Tech (13) – This was as much a schedule ranking as anything. In fact, I picked this team to go to the National Title Game because I thought it would go undefeated against a pathetic schedule. And it did except Clemson was much better than expected.
TCU (22) – I expected early growing pains and I got them. Still, this team improved a ton and I never thought it would win in Boise.
BYU (25) – Won 10 games, but against the 10 weakest teams on the schedule. Lost to Texas and Utah, two teams nobody has ranked as this point.
Teams I overrated by a lot
Nebraska (6) – I thought the defense would play well in the Big Ten (it didn't) and I thought Taylor Martinez would play better as a sophomore (he did, but not by much).
Florida St. (8) – Another ranking that was product of the weak ACC schedule. I have learned my lesson. I won't be doing this again. And I also won't be picking Florida St. to beat West Virginia in September 2012. Prove something first.
Missouri (9) – Played well but didn't get wins against the toughest schedule in the country. This team really should have been better considering the talent on hand.
Texas A&M (10) – Everybody missed this because nobody knew that the definition of collapse is Aggies (Utah St. also fits this bill, at least in the collapse sense).
Notre Dame (11) – First came the ND turnover machine with RAGE FACE. Then Michigan was a heck of a lot better than expected. Also, USC and Stanford were top 10 teams. There were four losses.
Mississippi St. (17) – In retrospect, we should have seen this coming. The numbers didn't support a 9-4 record in 2010 and there were losses on the defense that carried this team to that record. Oops.
Ohio St. (21) – I'm not taking any blame for this. Nobody had any idea how this was going to turn out.
Pittsburgh (24) – A pathetic pick on my part and a pathetic team.
Teams I underrated by a lot
Stanford (18) – I refused to bow at the altar of Luck in the preseason. I paid for it by looking like a dimwit. Moving on.
USC (19) – The first half of the season, this looked like it belonged in the section above this one. Then the Trojans suddenly became the destroyers or old and jumped way, way up the rankings as others lost.
Arkansas (20) – Took advantage of an offense challenged SEC. Also played consistently, allowing a move to a legit top 10 finish.
Oklahoma St. (23) – May God have mercy on my soul for missing this pick by this much (especially since the rest of the world had this team in the top 10). In my defense, I saw a team with an average defense (cost them dearly in the one loss) and an offense that lost its coordinator and had the players teaching the new coordinator the offense since he came from a different background. The coordinator thing reminded me of Auburn's overhyped 2003 team and I ranked accordingly, especially with said average defense. And I paid for it. And I will continue to pay for it.
Unranked teams that finished ranked
Michigan – The defense was light years better than anyone expected. Everyone knew the offense was going to still be good.
Baylor – RGIII was a known commodity, but he went to another level and the defense got just enough stops to win him some games and the Heisman.
Kansas St. - Won more one possession games than any team in the BCS era. I expect a regression to the mean next season and a 6-6 type season.
Southern Miss – Only ranked because voters value not losing. Didn't really beat anyone other than Houston.
Houston – Ditto, only beat Penn St.
Clemson – That offense is going to be nearly impossible to defend if everyone stays healthy. Heck, it was nearly impossible to defend early in the season this year before Sammy Watkins got banged up and Tajh Boyd lost his consistency.
Penn St. - Exactly like we thought in the preseason. No offense, all defense. Of course that defense was incredible, before the collapse of everything at Penn St.
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