It's February. Time to reassess the college basketball world as teams get an idea of what is needed to make the NCAA Tournament. Today we start conference by conference with the Pac-12.
What has transpired so far? Nothing good. The league is the joke of the national college basketball scene with writers and analysts everywhere piling on. The mid-major leagues that share the Western half of the US are eons better, at least at the top and the Mountain West is better at the bottom too.
Biggest surprise – Colorado has remained in the race, trailing leaders Cal and Washington by just one game. How much of this is the Buffaloes actually being good and how much is the rest of the league being horrible enough that a bad Buffalo team could stay in the race is up for debate though.
Biggest disappointment – Can I say everyone? No? OK, fine, Arizona. The Wildcats are barely in the RPI top 100 after being ranked in the preseason top 25. Just an awful year in Tucson from the young Wildcats where nearly everything that could go wrong without debilitating injuries or transfers has happened.
NCAA Tournament Locks – None. This league has only one lock. That would be the conference tournament champions. Everyone will be takings its chances. Yes, it is that bad.
Should be in the tournament – The regular season champion. Whoever emerges from the morass in the second half of the conference season should get into the NCAA Tournament, especially if that team is Cal.
Squarely on the bubble – Cal, Oregon, Washington, Stanford
These four (along with Colorado) are in ok position given the computer numbers as long as they put together huge runs in the second half of the conference season. Realistically, these teams (other than Stanford) are fighting for the league title and the likely bid that will come with it. As for Colorado, the Buffaloes lack quality wins (the best non-conference win was against Georgia and that is depreciating rapidly given the Bulldogs lost to Auburn last night) and have the worse RPI of any contender. A Colorado league title would likely become an indictment of the entire league and doom it to one-bid no matter what.
Autobid or bust – Colorado, Arizona, Oregon St., UCLA, Washington St., USC, Arizona St. and Utah
For a major conference with 12 teams, that is a huge list at this point in the season.
Final thought – This might take years to get out of. The Pac-12 is so bad this season that the perception will hurt for years to come (like what happened after the 1999 football disaster that set the league back for years in the National Title race until the rise of USC even though there were worthy teams in the league). Next year it appears that nobody other than maybe Arizona will have any expectations at all, putting the league squarely on par with mid-majors that have to prove themselves every time out against other major conference teams. Given that, the Pac-12 won't return to its former glory (it was only four years ago that six out of 10 in the Pac-10 made the tournament and a credible case for a seventh was available) until the stink of this season wears off, however long that takes.
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