Picks failure, reviewing my preseason college football rankings

Here we go, a chance for me to get skewered (and believe me, there is one team I completely missed on preseason more than almost anyone along with the usual array of hits and misses everyone has). That said, I'm starting with what I did right. I want to feel good about myself before I criticize myself and allow all my readers to make fun of me. Then I will offer some defense, flimsy though it may be for my awful picks from the preseason.

Teams I pegged pretty well (preseason ranking in parenthesis)

LSU (1) – Obviously I had the Tigers pegged, until the National Title Game.

Alabama (2) – Same with the Crimson Tide.

Boise St. (5) – I thought Boise St. had a loss in there somewhere, I just didn't know where.

Oregon (7) – Finished higher than this, but this ranking was based on a two-loss projection so I will say I had it right.

South Carolina (12) – And to think I was worried that I had overrated this team in the preseason.

Michigan St. (14) – Finished a bit higher, but was ranked right in this area before the crapshoot that is the bowl game.

Georgia (15) – Ditto Michigan St.

West Virginia (16) – If not for October this team could have finished in the top 5.

Teams that I was a bit off, but within reason

Oklahoma (3) – Injuries destroyed the offense in November. Still, this wasn't a top 5 team. Top 10 with all the players most likely.

Wisconsin (4) – Beaten on a pair of Hail Mary's and that is it in the regular season.

Virginia Tech (13) – This was as much a schedule ranking as anything. In fact, I picked this team to go to the National Title Game because I thought it would go undefeated against a pathetic schedule. And it did except Clemson was much better than expected.

TCU (22) – I expected early growing pains and I got them. Still, this team improved a ton and I never thought it would win in Boise.

BYU (25) – Won 10 games, but against the 10 weakest teams on the schedule. Lost to Texas and Utah, two teams nobody has ranked as this point.

Teams I overrated by a lot

Nebraska (6) – I thought the defense would play well in the Big Ten (it didn't) and I thought Taylor Martinez would play better as a sophomore (he did, but not by much).

Florida St. (8) – Another ranking that was product of the weak ACC schedule. I have learned my lesson. I won't be doing this again. And I also won't be picking Florida St. to beat West Virginia in September 2012. Prove something first.

Missouri (9) – Played well but didn't get wins against the toughest schedule in the country. This team really should have been better considering the talent on hand.

Texas A&M (10) – Everybody missed this because nobody knew that the definition of collapse is Aggies (Utah St. also fits this bill, at least in the collapse sense).

Notre Dame (11) – First came the ND turnover machine with RAGE FACE. Then Michigan was a heck of a lot better than expected. Also, USC and Stanford were top 10 teams. There were four losses.

Mississippi St. (17) – In retrospect, we should have seen this coming. The numbers didn't support a 9-4 record in 2010 and there were losses on the defense that carried this team to that record. Oops.

Ohio St. (21) – I'm not taking any blame for this. Nobody had any idea how this was going to turn out.

Pittsburgh (24) – A pathetic pick on my part and a pathetic team.

Teams I underrated by a lot

Stanford (18) – I refused to bow at the altar of Luck in the preseason. I paid for it by looking like a dimwit. Moving on.

USC (19) – The first half of the season, this looked like it belonged in the section above this one. Then the Trojans suddenly became the destroyers or old and jumped way, way up the rankings as others lost.

Arkansas (20) – Took advantage of an offense challenged SEC. Also played consistently, allowing a move to a legit top 10 finish.

Oklahoma St. (23) – May God have mercy on my soul for missing this pick by this much (especially since the rest of the world had this team in the top 10). In my defense, I saw a team with an average defense (cost them dearly in the one loss) and an offense that lost its coordinator and had the players teaching the new coordinator the offense since he came from a different background. The coordinator thing reminded me of Auburn's overhyped 2003 team and I ranked accordingly, especially with said average defense. And I paid for it. And I will continue to pay for it.

Unranked teams that finished ranked

Michigan – The defense was light years better than anyone expected. Everyone knew the offense was going to still be good.

Baylor – RGIII was a known commodity, but he went to another level and the defense got just enough stops to win him some games and the Heisman.

Kansas St. - Won more one possession games than any team in the BCS era. I expect a regression to the mean next season and a 6-6 type season.

Southern Miss – Only ranked because voters value not losing. Didn't really beat anyone other than Houston.

Houston – Ditto, only beat Penn St.

Clemson – That offense is going to be nearly impossible to defend if everyone stays healthy. Heck, it was nearly impossible to defend early in the season this year before Sammy Watkins got banged up and Tajh Boyd lost his consistency.

Penn St. - Exactly like we thought in the preseason. No offense, all defense. Of course that defense was incredible, before the collapse of everything at Penn St.

Season in Review – Stoops finally goes down in flames at Arizona, a few years later than expected

Reviewing the season, important team by important team. Alphabetically. If I skip your team, it was probably irrelevant.

Season in 3 sentences – Arizona was plowed by quality team after quality team early on (the same ones that plowed it to end last season). Then Mike Stoops was fired. After that, Arizona played like the middling Pac-12 team it usually is.

Season Expectations – Contending in the wide open Pac-12 South was expected. The Wildcats didn't necessarily have to win, but the meltdown that occurred with the early season schedule destroyed this team. Only a home game against UCLA to kick start some decent play allowed anything salvageable to come from this year.

Team MVP – Nick Foles. Foles did everything he could this season, throwing for over 4000 yards with a 2-1 TD-INT ratio and a 69% completion rate. Not that it helped opposite a defense that could generously be called poor.

Biggest Game – Oregon St. 37, Arizona 27; After starting 1-4 against a stretch that 90% of the country would have started 1-4 against (FCS team, at Oklahoma St., Stanford, Oregon, at USC) after collapsing down the stretch last season (losses to the same four teams and Arizona St.), a win was needed to get the program on the right track. Also, bowl hopes still remained if the ship could turn against the last place Oregon St. Beavers. Instead, Arizona laid an egg and Stoops was gone before the next game.

Bowl Game – None. Though this team was talented enough to beat Oregon St. and Colorado and get to one.

Historic Comparison – 2001 Kentucky. Big passing game, no running game or defense to speak of. Nick Foles is a heck of a lot better than Jared Lorenzen ever was though. Had that Kentucky team played this Arizona team's schedule it would have won more than two games. Had this Arizona team played that Kentucky team's schedule, it likely would have managed a third win but not four like it really won this year.

What Comes Next? Wholesale changes. Rich Rodriguez and the spread option are coming. The Wildcat personnel, if a quarterback can be found, should be fairly ready for this considering Arizona has been running a spread passing game for the last few years. On defense, the 3-3-5 is coming. In Pac-12 play, that looks like a good thing with prolific offenses all over the place and only one of those schools (Stanford) doing it by traditional power football.

College Football Postseason Review - Alabama

Reviewing the season, important team by important team. Alphabetically. If I skip your team, it was probably irrelevant.

Season in 3 sentences – Started number two in the preseason and never saw number one during the regular season after getting passed by LSU's superior resume. Lost in the Game of the Century at home to LSU but was granted a rematch in the National Championship Game, controversially. Then obliterated poor LSU in the rematch to take the National Championship.

Season Expectations – It was National Title or bust. Consider that part of the equation met, but winning the SEC is close to being as important and Alabama struck out on that count, losing the division and the conference in that Game of the Century loss to LSU.

Team MVP – Trent Richardson. Richardson was the engine that made the offense go all season. At times when AJ McCarron struggled, he was the offense. That said, the defense was really the engine and if there was a dominant defender on this team (none were more dominant than many others on the roster) he would have beat Richardson out.

Biggest Game – Alabama 38, Arkansas 14; No, I'm not picking the Game of the Century of the Year. It's result was invalidated to some degree in the National Championship game. Beating Arkansas by such a large margin was one of the keys to Alabama getting the nod for the championship game and it showed the offense could score enough points to allow the defense to do its thing.

Bowl Game – Beat LSU 21-0 in the BCS Championship Game; Just a horrifying beatdown. The Alabama defense took the LSU offense behind the woodshed and the result would kindly be described at abuse. It was just flat out brutal and violent.

Historic Comparison – 2003 LSU. This Alabama team is a bit better than that LSU team that won a share of the National Championship, but the comparison remains. Dominant defense (this one better than that one) and good enough offense (the 03 LSU offense was probably a bit better than this Alabama offense). The common denominator on both teams: Nick Saban as head coach.

What Comes Next? A team that looks a whole lot like 2010 Alabama. Young in some key places, returning quarterback, strong running game. Should be good to pencil in 10 wins and then see what happens from there with a brutal schedule (open against Michigan, at Arkansas, at LSU along with the rest of SEC play). 11-1 should be good enough for SEC Championship game next season and an SEC Championship with less that two losses is pretty much an automatic ticket to the National Title Game barring bizarro circumstances (loss is to Michigan who goes undefeated and either Oregon or USC also goes undefeated only scenario I can see).

Ten Best Games of the Bowl Season

Rose Bowl – Oregon 45, Wisconsin 38

The game that had everything (except maybe a kick return touchdown). Offense from everywhere, a defensive touchdown and a bit of controversy/insanity at the end with the failed spike by Russell Wilson (with two seconds left, always just run a play because a spike leaves you at the mercy of the referee and clock operator). Add that it was the Rose Bowl and it was a true Rose Bowl between the champions of the Pac-12 and Big Ten played when it should be played on New Year's with perfect weather, and it gets even better.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. 41, Stanford 38 (OT)

And if the Rose Bowl didn't have everything, this game did. Andrew Luck was nearly perfect in the game, but it wasn't enough as his coach chose to put in on the foot of the kicker in true NFL-bred conservative fashion at the end and paid for it when the freshmen kicker missed both at the end of regulation and in overtime.

Outback Bowl – Michigan St. 33, Georgia 30 (3OT)

This wasn't a particularly well played game, but it was certainly entertaining as these teams tried to outmistake their opponents. Ultimately, Georgia succeeded in part because Mark Richt got too conservative in overtime and left it to the kicker, a very bad proposition this season.

New Orleans Bowl – UL-Lafayette 32, San Diego St. 30

Of course, not every kicker was awful at the end of games. Before we get to him, remember that the quarterbacks shot it out in this game (before the Alamo Bowl redefined the definition of shootout in football) with a combined 905 yards passing between the two teams. Still, the story was the kicker, Brett Baer, who made a 50-yarder to win the game as time expired.

Idaho Potato Bowl – Ohio 24, Utah St. 23

Utah St. played and a MAC team played. Both of those were sure signs of entertainment this season. And in the end, Utah St. played to early season form, blowing a lead in the 4^th quarter, allowing Ohio to score with under 20 seconds to go and steal the win.

Alamo Bowl – Baylor 67, Washington 56

Keith Price is a superstar. He was incredible for Washington and minted himself a superstar. The Baylor running game was also amazing, even if it was against Matador defense waving them through. Oh yeah, the Heisman Trophy winner was in this game too. This game was a ton of fun, but its not at the top because I like the thought of defense in football. I don't want my football scores to be higher than my basketball scores.

Whatever they're calling the game in Charlotte now – NC State 31, Louisville 24

Nothing spectacular here. Just a solid, fun game in front of a decent crowd that I enjoyed watching. Sometimes that's all a bowl game needs to be, especially early in the bowl season before the bigger, badder teams get fired up.

Sugar Bowl – Michigan 23, Virginia Tech 20 (OT)

The end was great. Ot was enjoyable. The game was close. It was a BCS game. Why is it ranked so low? It was a BCS game that shouldn't have been and it was boring for most of the game, especially in the first half.

Military Bowl – Toledo 42, Air Force 41

MACtion against the triple-option? Sign me up anytime, especially in a bowl game like this one. And it delivered everything we expect. Points everywhere and a close game decided an a failed two-point conversion on a fake PAT. The big surprise: a real throwing presence (159 yards passing) from normally ground bound Air Force.

Poinsettia Bowl – TCU 31, Louisiana Tech 24

It's a formula that works at least once for a good game in every bowl season: favorite plays lethargically because of either rust or lack of desire (or both) before waking up to take the win in a closer than expected fashion at the end. That is exactly how this one was as TCU slept through much of the game before scoring 14 points to comeback and then put the game away.

Cycling Season in Review - Best Race Days

5 Ronde Van Vlaanderen – Fabian Cancellara vs the World. The World won, but not behind any expected person. Because Sylvain Chavanel was ahead in the breakway, his QuickStep teammate Tom Boonen didn't have to do any work. Amazingly, Boonen attacked and Cancellara not only answered but dropped Boonen, bridging up to the solo Chavanel. It was an amazing display from the overwhelming favorite Cancellara. With all of the energy output though and Chavanel no longer working because he was working for teammate Boonen, Cancellara burned all his energy and he and Chavanel were caught. From there, it was a frantic ride with attacks coming from all over from a select group. Philippe Gilbert had a go at it (about the only time he had a go and failed all season). Cancellara tried to go again but was marked fairly easily by everyone. Ultimately, Nick Nuyens from Cancellara's former Saxo Bank team won the race and many were left to wonder. For Cancellara, he obviously attacked too early, goaded into an attack by Boonen. For Boonen, he broke the field and created the select group, but he caused his teammate up the road to be reeled in earlier than expected and earlier than necessary. As for Chavanel, he had to work for Boonen, but he seemed to have the legs to stay with Cancellara where nobody else had in 2010. Had he not had to sit in behind Cancellara and wait for Boonen, could he have won heads up in a sprint? Lots of questions to go along with a surprise winner on the final year of the current course (not that anyone knew how radically the course would be changing at the time).

4 Paris-Roubaix – The other major cobbled classic, Paris-Roubaix was also expected to be the domain of Cancellara, defending champion for the second straight week (Paris-Roubaix is just a week after De Ronde). Unfortunately for him, he was done in by Garmin-Cervelo successfully executing the tactic that Boonen blew up the week before. Johann van Summeren was in the lead group while Cancellara and Garmin leader Thor Hushovd dueled in the second group. Hushovd didn't make the same mistake as Boonen did though and Cancellara's gigantic attack to reel the front group in wasn't enough as he had no help from Hushovd with his teammate up the road winning the race. It was Van Summeren's only significant result of the season. No podiums, no wins, nothing other than the 'Hell of the North'.

3 Giro d'Italia Stage 15 – Ultimately inconsequential in the overall race at the Giro d'Italia, this day was easily the best day of racing at the tragedy marred Giro. Over the Cima Coppi and claiming the King of the Mountains competition all at the same time was Stefano Garzelli, giving himself a nice retirement gift in his final Giro. His ride also kept Alberto Contador from a jersey sweep. The stage was won by Mikel Nieve, who was in the group with Garzelli before being dropped on the Passo Giau climb. After that point, Nieve remained in a kind of no man's land, ahead of the splintering breakaway but well behind Garzelli until Garzelli started to fade. Nieve eventually made it back and passed Garzelli on the final climb to Val di Fassa. Garzelli finished second on the stage and Contador finished 3^rd, having clawed back nearly 9 minutes of a gap that at one point was over 10 minutes and had Nieve as the GC leader on the road. In addition to front group, Vincenzo Nibali put in a ferocious attack on a descent, but he was reeled in by the rest of the group and later dropped. It was an unjust day in an unjust season for Nibali. This was the day that cost him 2^nd place, basically because he attacked. He later would fail to produce much in the Vuelta a Espana, just like everyone else who rode the Giro.

2 Tour de France Stage 18 – The climb to Col du Galibier was expected to be supremely important. It ended up being decisive. Andy Schleck's attack from well away from the final climb went unanswered. At one point, he was over four minutes ahead. In the group behind, there was no organization or ability to work together (except for a possible alliance between Spaniard Sammy Sanchez and Alberto Contador). With the lack of organization, eventual race leader Cadel Evans took it upon himself. He rode a long time trial regained two of the lost minutes from Schleck, leaving himself in range of catching Schleck either the next day on Alpe d'Huez or on the time trial the final day (or real racing). Additionally, Thomas Voeckler shockingly retained his yellow jersey for one final day, managing to only get dropped by Evans at the very end. That was much better than the fate of Contador, who cracked along with his ally Sanchez under the pressure from Evans.

1 Tour de France Stage 19 – The next day brought the iconic Alpe d'Huez climb along with ascending the Galibier from a different side. It was also a shorter stage, opening up some different tactics. Not long after the breakaway formed, Contador attacked. He later said that he knew the race was done, he felt like he had the legs, and he basically attacked that early for the fun of it. Evans, Schleck and Voeckler has no idea this was the case though and marked the attack. Evans would have a mechanical issue and Voeckler would get dropped, but this stage was far from over. At that point, Evans went back into the same grinding mode he was in the day before and brought the field back together himself at the foot of Alpe d'Huez. From there, Contador attacked again, but was eventually caught, passed and dropped by Voeckler's young French teammate Pierre Rolland, confirming a new French star and giving that country some hope in a sport where it has struggled for some time.

Cycling Season in Review - Best Rider

Over the next few days, I will be reviewing the cycling season that was. If you missed it, I already ran down the team of the year. Today is rider of the year.

5 Mark Cavendish (HTC-High Road) – Seven Grand Tour stage wins, the Tour de France Green Jersey and the Rainbow Jersey for winning the World Championship. Cavendish had an incredible year and confirmed himself as the absolute best sprinter in the world. Once he got going after a slow start, Cavendish was rarely beaten in any sprints he contested.

4 Tony Martin (HTC-High Road) – Despite all of Cavendish's success, he wasn't even the most omportant part of his team. Tony Martin won seven races this season including overtaking Fabian Cancellara as the king of the time trial. This season, Martin won the time trial at Paris-Nice to win the race overall, won the time trial at the Criterium du Dauphine, won the time trial at the Tour de France, won the time trial at the Vuelta a Espana and then finished it off with a Rainbow Jersey in the World Time Trial championship.

3 Cadel Evans (BMC) – Tour de France champion guarantees a spot on this list and normally would be ranked higher, but Evans didn't contend in any major classic this season (remember that he has won Fleche-Walloone and a World Championship) nor did he even ride another Grand Tour. That said, his accomplishments beyond his Tour de France victory are still quite good: overall wins in Tirenno-Adriatico and the Tour of Romandie. Also a second place finish at the Criterium du Dauphine.

2 Alberto Contador (Saxo Bank-Sungard) – Why is the rider who finished fifth in the Tour de France ranked in front of Evans in the year end rankings here? Simple, his Giro d'Italia victory was completely dominating and had he shown up at the Tour de France with that form, he would have destroyed Evans and the rest of the field. Contador also managed to win a couple of early season Spanish stage races as well.

1 Philippe Gilbert (Omega Pharma-Lotto) – Is there any other choice? Gilbert won 17 times this season including winning Liege-Bastogne-Liege to cap off an unprecedented Ardennes triple (the only previous Ardennes triple winner was the obviously doped up and later caught Davide Rebellin). Additionally, Gilbert won a Tour de France stage, the Clasica San Sebastian and GP Quebec. Just a dominating season from start to finish.