BCS Bowl Projections and the race to the title game Week 10

Projections are made with future results in mind. Also note that the teams projected may not be the most deserving teams. That is the way bowl games work.

National Championship – LSU vs Oklahoma

LSU is going to win out. Not much question there. In the other spot, I think everyone else except Boise St. gets beat amongst the undefeated teams. At that point, Oklahoma, as the team doing the beating of Oklahoma St., jumps Boise into the title game.

Rose Bowl – Stanford vs Ohio St.

Ohio St. is going to win out. Do that and all they need is a Penn St. loss to either Nebraska or Wisconsin to reach the Big Ten Championship Game. Given the current turmoil off the field at Penn St., I like the Buckeyes chances. As for Stanford, I project a loss, but to Notre Dame, not this week to Oregon.

Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma St. vs Wisconsin

Oklahoma St. slides right in replacing Oklahoma as the Big 12 rep. As for Wisconsin, they will be irresistible at 2 losses for any bowl game with the traveling horde that follows them. If available, this bowl will take Oklahoma and Nebraska in less than a second, even if one or both are not entirely deserving.

Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Boise St.

The game everyone really wants to see, and it happens when the Fiesta passes on Boise St. after having had them twice in the last five years.

Orange Bowl – Clemson vs Cincinnati

This bowl is still paying for all the favors it took in the pre-BCS era and for the Iowa-USC matchup in 2002. Given that they are stuck with the ACC Champion (though Clemson is, by far, the best non-Florida St. or Miami tv draw in the league) and the last pick, this matchup is destined to suck this season.

National Title Contenders

LSU – Win out, play for National Title

Oklahoma St. - Win Out, play for National Title

Alabama – Get a wholescale collapse, 2007-style while winning out. Either that or get an Arkansas win over LSU and steal the tiebreaker at the end.

Stanford – Win out and get either and Oklahoma St. or LSU loss. Don't be alarmed at number 4 ranking this week. As soon as they beat Oregon, that will be rectified.

Boise St. - Win out and get a lot of help. Among the contenders, Boise needs almost. If LSU remains undefeated, Stanford, Oklahoma St., Oklahoma obviously trump Boise. Oregon and Alabama could be done in by the voters not wanting a title game rematch.

Oklahoma – Win out and get a Stanford loss. Would beat Oklahoma St. along the way. Might need Oklahoma St. to remain undefeated until Bedlam game as well (likely).

Oregon – Win out, hope for a collapse from everyone else and hope the voters prefer a non-conference rematch instead of a conference rematch. Likely done for in the National Title Race without 2 LSU losses to eliminate them.

Arkansas – Win out and win the tiebreaker for the SEC West. Ideally, this would be with an Auburn win over Alabama to eliminate Alabama entirely as winning the 3-way tiebreaker looks impossibly bleak for Arkansas. Also needs a loss by two of Oklahoma St., Oklahoma and Stanford.

Everybody else is completely cooked in the National Title race.