Oct 4, 2011

Week 5 Top 25

Now that we have a few weeks of games in the books, its time for a new Top 25. I rank teams according to what they have done (resume ranking) looking only at scores, who they beat and how they have looked while doing it.

1 LSU (5-0) – Wins over Oregon, Mississippi St. and West Virginia all away from home are the best collection of wins in the country. Also, teams seem to have no hope going against the defense, even though both Oregon and West Virginia scored some points on it.

2 Alabama (5-0) – Alabama's collection of wins is nearly as good as LSU's with a road wins against Penn St. and Florida and a win over Arkansas. The Crimson Tide are edged out by a slight margin mostly because it seems they have no deep threat. Based on what we have seen so far (independent of expectations and talent level), that lack of a deep threat could be a big problem against LSU.

3 Clemson (5-0) – The big surprise of the early season, Clemson had beaten Auburn, Florida St. and Virginia Tech. The Tigers have a great offense (despite the uneven game in Blacksburg) and showed their defense is pretty good too by shutting down the Hokies on the road. Given the rest of the schedule, the question must be asked” Could schizophrenic Clemson actually go undefeated?

4 Oklahoma (4-0) – Another week, another ho hum win. The Florida St. and Missouri wins look like high quality wins and the Sooners get a shot at another this week with the Red River Shootout against Texas. That said, Missouri was way too close for comfort and could have beaten the Sooners had they played even average in the middle two quarters.

5 Wisconsin (5-0) – The Badgers are the most dominant team in the country, but other than Nebraska, Wisconsin has played a steaming pile of poo for a schedule (not entirely their fault that the wheels fell off of Oregon St. this season) and will continue to do so. Just know that Ron Zook is the biggest obstacle between the Badgers and a perfect record entering the B1G Championship Game.

6 Boise St. (4-0) – Another week, another ho hum win where the starters were out early. Sadly for Boise, the schedule is not what it has been in previous years. Georgia is not the level of Virginia Tech from last year or Oregon the year before. TCU is not what they were. There is no Oregon St. this year. There is also no real credible challenger in the Broncos new league. Given that, other than the Georgia game, non-conference games against Toledo, Nevada, Fresno St. and Tulsa aren't good enough to get this team to the National Championship barring a total collapse at the top of the polls.

7 Michigan (5-0) – The Notre Dame win is good and destroying teams 58-0 always looks good. I think they are really good, but not top 10 good in reality.

8 Oklahoma St. (4-0) – Texas A&M win looks good, but not great given the Aggies collapse against Arkansas. Arizona win looks terrible. The wheels have come off the bus there, leaving no non-conference victory of note on the resume.

9 Illinois (5-0) – The fighting Zooks have one huge win (Arizona St., my top one-loss team) and collection of unimpressive wins against middling competition and blowouts over bad teams. Given the garbage many teams have played to this point, that's good for a high ranking here even if I don't believe there is any way this keeps up.

10 Kansas St. (4-0) – Beating Miami on the road and Baylor looks very good given the lack of quality wins out there from many teams. As long as you do like I do and write off the 10-7 win over Eastern Kentucky as first game jitters and an aberration, things look good here even if there is no way the Wildcats will be beating any of the top Big 12 teams.

Rest of the Top 25 after the jump


11 Texas (4-0) – And the problems was the quarterback. Entirely. Even on defense. Since Gilbert was yanked, this team has looked like the Texas we have known for years. They are still young and it will cost them against Oklahoma this week, but I expect 10 wins from these guys, somehow.

12 Georgia Tech (5-0) – Impressive on offense, but wins over Kansas and North Carolina do not a resume make, especially in football. The defensive issues (gave up 35 to NC State) are scary.

13 Arizona St. (4-1) – The Sun Devils wins over Missouri and USC look nice. At the same time, the loss on the road to Illinois doesn't look too bad. Also, it appears nobody in the Pac-12 other than Stanford and Oregon will be able to take advantage of the Sun Devils charitable ways (4 turnovers in win over Oregon St. last week).

14 Auburn (4-1) – The baby Tigers look a whole lot better now than they did when they lost to Clemson. For one thing, Clemson is really good (see number 3). For another, the defense has improved a ton in the last two weeks.

15 Stanford (4-0) – Here because of the zero in the loss column and nothing else. Among the undefeated teams, only Houston and Texas Tech claim a weaker set of wins. The Cardinal are only ranked this high because they have completely dominated that weak schedule (best wins: Arizona, UCLA, Duke).

16 Nebraska (4-1) – It was an ugly beatdown in Madison last Saturday, but everyone who goes to Madison will receive something similar this season. The win over Washington looks better every week though.

17 Florida (4-1) – No shame in losing at home to Alabama, even big, particularly when the starting quarterback gets hurt. Same for the upcoming road loss to LSU. The win over Tennessee remains the only thing of note, but it looks quite good right now.

18 Arkansas (4-1) – Ditto the Alabama thing from above. Ranked behind Florida because I value the Tennessee win over the Texas A&M win at this point.

19 South Carolina (4-1) – Shameful quarterback play all season finally got them tagged against Auburn (teams really need to learn to not let Auburn stay close, Clemson-style). The win against Georgia is the only really impressive victory. Looks like the same old South Carolina.

20 West Virginia (4-1) – The win over Maryland lost value last week with the Terps loss to Temple (and looks worse after Temple lost to Toledo this week). Beyond that, things look surprisingly barren though Marshall did beat Louisville, a win that helps the resume now, but hurts it once Louisville is on the resume later this season.

21 Washington (4-1) – Now winning road games for the first time in forever, the Huskies would be co-favorites in the Pac-12 South. Alas, they are in the North, where Oregon and Stanford reside. I expect Oregon's ranking to rise quickly as they start playing some real opponents (to go along with the LSU loss).

22 Tennessee (3-1) – Considering the circumstances (top WR Hunter injured early), the Florida loss is ok. The Cincinnati win looks better and better as the Bearcats look a lot more like the Brian Kelly version than last years shoddy outfit.

23 Oregon (3-1) – Only here because they are demolishing everyone. They really don't have a quality win (I don't count Arizona at this point) and Cal this week will be their best (yikes).

24 Notre Dame (3-2) – The turnover machine gets to go back in front of South Florida despite a head-to-head loss because I think the Irish are a better team with some other wins (as opposed to Notre Dame and nothing else) and because Pittsburgh beat the Bulls completing the Notre Dame > Pittsburgh > Sotuh Florida > Notre Dame loop meaning I can throw the head-to-head between those teams out when evaluating them.

25 Houston (5-0) – No losses and a win over UCLA gets you ranked, even if the defense is awful (42 points to UTEP, seriously?). Also allows me to work 6th year quarterback Case Keenum into the post.

Others considered

Texas Tech (4-0) – Nevada, Kansas, New Mexico, FCS does no a top 25 resume make, even with no losses. Every single team ranked above them would be 4-0 without question and many more ranked below would be too.

Michigan St. (4-1) – The offense looks awful. The defense great. I'll wait and see because Ohio St. doesn't look like a quality win and the only other opponent of note was Notre Dame (lost).

USC (4-1) – Arizona is not a quality team. Giving up 41 points to them at home is not good. Neither is struggling to put away Minnesota in the opener.

Virginia Tech (4-1) – Hokies have no wins of not and the offense might as well have not shown up against Clemson. Beat somebody even decent in ACC and this can be discussed again.

Baylor (3-1) – Suddenly don't look so good. TCU lost to SMU and the Bears themselves lost at Kansas St. Not good at all.

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