Results
Last week: SU: 8-2, ATS: 4-6)
Season SU: 25-15, ATS: 17-22-1
Game of the Week – Florida vs Alabama in the Star Wars fans need not apply bowl
Florida is being undersold here. The Gators are really good again and I think the Swamp is a great equalizer. In addition, the Gators special teams are really good and could change matters in this game. With all that said, the Gators won't win. They don't have the receivers to threaten Alabama downfield (most of the Gators big passing plays have been on short passes to running backs) and an offense needs everything to not get the life sucked out of them when facing the Alabama defense (see Arkansas and its lack of a running back last week).
Alabama 20, Florida 13
Wisconsin vs Nebraska – Welcome to the Big Ten Cornhuskers. The goal is to make you suffer for a little while
If anyone is wondering about that tagline, they only need to look at Nebraska's early Big Ten schedule. A cross divisional draw of Wisconsin, Ohio St. and Penn St. is just ridiculous considering who the Cornhuskers miss. The first one though is the most difficult. That would be this one. I expect Nebraska to try and shorten this game by running the football and playing strong defense. It won't work. The Nebraska pass defense has been average at best this season (see getting shredded by Washington and giving up a whole bunch of points to Fresno St.) and Wisconsin with Russell Wilson can now throw the ball in addition to its usual running game. When Wisconsin starts to get the offense going, Taylor Martinez won't be able to keep up and I say Taylor Martinez because he is pretty much the entire offense (save for a few cameos by Rex Burkhead each game).
Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 20
Clemson vs Virginia Tech – The big game that's an afterthought
In fact, this game is huge (let's just face the fact that ESPN placed this game in its oddball timeslot on ESPN2 a few weeks ago when it never expected Clemson to beat either Auburn of Florida St.). Clemson is one of only two real challenging games on the Virginia Tech schedule before a possible ACC Championship Game and the Hokies get them while they are playing well and banishing the demons of Clemson teams past. Their hope in this game comes with running back David Wilson who has looked explosive and will be running against a defense ranked 85th against the run despite Florida St. never really attempting to run last week. The problem comes against the Clemson offense that has shredded Auburn's awful defense and Florida St.'s very good defense the last two week. That Clemson offense has been very un-Clemson like (except for the Tajh Boyd interception last week) and will somehow deliver Clemson a big road win over a Hokies team that should be untested but isn't because their offense hasn't been ready to play for much of the season.
Clemson 27, Virginia Tech 24 (I already know this pick is likely to go awry so please don't make too much fun of me when Clemson become the Clemson we have known for the last 20 years and loses by 30).
Iowa St. vs Texas
The Iowa St. offense stinks. Period. They are a one-man army (though Steele Jantz is a pretty good one-man to have). Against the Texas defense that has already killed two bad offenses this season, that won't be good enough as long as Case McCoy plays halfway decently. He will.
Texas 28, Iowa St. 10
Kansas St. vs Baylor
Baylor is the ultimate one-man band offense, but that one-man has been the best player in the country so far. Against Kansas St. on the road, he will have to be again as the Kansas St. running game is going to put some points on the board against the bad Baylor defense. At the end, Griffin will finally make a mistake and the Wildcats will somehow be 4-0 despite nearly losing to Eastern Kentucky in week 1 (even playing that close is shameful) and Miami in week 4 (not so shameful).
Kansas St. 41, Baylor 35
Texas A&M vs Arkansas – The big game that wasn't
Both A&M and Arkansas lost big games last week. This game will be decided by which team gets over the hangover better because I think the teams are even in most areas. That team will be Texas A&M. I think the general excitement around the program after being officially accepted unconditionally by the SEC will help them get over the disappointment better than Arkansas who saw any real hopes of a conference or national title disappear and probably any hopes at a second straight at-large BCS berth as well. Both teams would be advised to remember they have a running game.
Texas A&M 34, Arkansas 21
South Carolina vs Auburn
The Gamecocks have been terrible on offense thus far this season other than Marcus Lattimore (blame Steve Spurrier, whose quarterback head games have finally caught up to him). The Tigers have been even worse on defense (except for two huge plays against Mississippi St.). Something has to give here. If it's Lattimore's body (119 touches in 4 games already after missing parts of 3 games to injuries last season), Auburn pulls the upset. If Lattimore holds up, the Auburn defense will give (and give and give and give and give) and much-maligned quarterback Stephen Garcia won't need to throw. Sadly for my Tigers, Lattimore won't break down until later in the season.
South Carolina 34, Auburn 24
Utah vs Washington
Good luck Utah. You are going to need it. Somehow, Washington's offense has improved greatly after losing a first-round draft pick quarterback (or if you listened to me last season and before you don't need the somehow). The reason is that Keith Price has been incredible thus far. Given that he already shredded the Nebraska defense on the road (the Huskies lost because of no defense and one of the more boneheaded special teams plays you'll ever see), I expect he will do the same to Utah. Given those parameters, Utah won't score enough points to keep up in this game, even at home against a bad defense. I just don't believe in their offense to score like that right now (and don't bring up the 54 points against BYU unless you really think Washington is going to turn it over seven times like BYU did).
Washington 31, Utah 21
Ohio St. vs Michigan St.
I don't like this Ohio St. team at all, but Sparty looks bad. In fact, it looks like Alabama took more than a pound of flesh in the bowl game last season. We just haven't seen Michigan St. against enough competent opposition to prove it yet. Ohio St. isn't good either without the suspended players, but Braxton Miller is clearly better than Joe Bauserman (architect of one of the worst major conference quarterback games in a long time in the loss to Miami) and the Buckeyes are at home. That will be good enough this week.
Ohio St. 24, Michigan St. 16
Georgia vs Mississippi St. - Bulldog Bowl 2011
Mississippi St. is not very good at all and they are way overrated. The blowout over Memphis to start the season made everyone overrate them instead of looking at how bad Memphis really is (in the conversation with New Mexico and Western Kentucky for worst team in the country). Then the loss to Auburn was looked at as Auburn refusing to lose (the Tigers aren't good either and only won the even game because of homefield and both a dumb play call and bad execution at the end). After that was LSU and Mississippi St. never looked threatening (Oregon and West Virginia at least moved the ball whereas Mississippi St. might as well have punted on 1st down the whole second half). Then was overtime against Louisiana Tech (do I really need to explain this?). Despite all of that, they have a chance this week. The reason why is that Georgia is way overrated too. They were terrible against Boise St., made mind-numbingly dumb mistakes to lose to South Carolina in a game they should have won and tried everything they could to give away last week's game to Ole Miss (the Rebels aren't just bad, they are miserably awful). Now that I have spent 1/4 of this post explaining why these teams suck, I am picking Georgia. Chris Relf can't throw and he will need to to beat Georgia on the road.
Georgia 31, Mississippi St. 20
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