As usual, home team is listed first except in the neutral site game that are designated with the location of the game along with the time and network. All games are Saturday unless otherwise listed. Odds are accurate as 4PM PT Thursday at Station Casinos in Las Vegas.
Results
Last Week Straight Up: 9-6 Against the Spread: 11-4
Season Straight Up: 89-46, Against the Spread: 69-61-5
Editor’s Note: A review of my season picks will be up next week and then bowl picks will go up in two weeks before the first game and in phases after that since I wouldn't want to burden anyone with 35 picks in one post.
Game of the Week – SEC Championship Game – Auburn (-5) vs South Carolina at Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA, 1PM PT, CBS
Both teams have improved greatly since the late September matchup between these two teams in Auburn. The first meeting was Cam Newton's first real breakout game as he accounted for five touchdowns and Auburn came from behind to beat the favored comebacks helped by four South Carolina turnovers in the 4th quarter. Now, throw everything out from that game. At the time, Auburn was still figuring out how to use Cam Newton. At the time, South Carolina didn't know how dangerous he was a runner (they didn't even use a spy to defend him). At the time, Steve Spurrier lost his mind and pulled Stephen Garcia in favor of Connor Shaw in the 4th quarter (one of if not the worst in game coaching move of Spurrier's career). The only things that remain the same are that Alshon Jeffrey is an incredible receiver who will have a big game and he will be allowed that big game because the Auburn secondary stinks. Even with that though, I don't think South Carolina has the athletes on defense to win this game. They will shut down Newton on the ground this time, but the Tigers will still get some yardage on the ground and the Gamecock secondary has plenty of its own issues that will be exploited here. On the other side of the ball, Marcus Lattimore is going to get shut down again, just like the last game and if that is the case, does anyone really trust Garcia to win the game on his own? I didn't think so.
Auburn 34, South Carolina 30
Oregon St. vs Oregon (-16.5), 1230PM PT, ABC
Oregon St. has been completely schizophrenic since James Rodgers got hurt in the Arizona game. Since then, the Beavers have steamrolled Cal and USC, lost to UCLA and Washington St. (at HOME) and gotten clobbered by Stanford. The results of those games have been completely about motivation. When the other team is motivated to play, Oregon St. loses. When the other team is motivated to play and is a more talented, better team, ugliness to the nth degree ensues. Guess where Oregon falls.
Oregon 48, Oregon St. 10
Big 12 Championship Game – Nebraska vs Oklahoma (-5.5) from Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, TX, 5PM PT, ABC
Which Oklahoma is going to show up? The one that was around for close calls against Cincinnati, Utah St., and Air Force and lost to Texas A&M and Missouri loses handily. The one that appeared for the Baylor and Oklahoma St. games the last two weeks wins this in a walk. While it won't be at the level of the previous two weeks, good Oklahoma is going to be in Dallas and since Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez isn't healthy, the Cornhuskers won't be able to keep up.
Oklahoma 31, Nebraska 21
ACC Championship Game – Virginia Tech (-3.5) vs Florida St. from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, 445 PM PT, ESPN
These teams are just a couple of plays from having had truly special seasons. Virginia Tech is likely one stop against Boise St. from being undefeated and ranked number three right now (there is no way they lose the hangover game to James Madison if there is no hangover) while Florida St. is two plays from being 11-1 (no amount of changes could have gotten Florida St. a win at Oklahoma the way they played in that game). In this game though, Florida St. might very well need a miracle. They came out of the weaker side of the ACC and they struggled to do so. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech got its defense in order after a very shaky start to the season. Since getting lit up for all of September, nobody has really moved the ball consistently on the Hokies in October and November. Florida St. won't be the first and the defense, while significantly improved, is still a year away from being able to win games on its own again.
Virginia Tech 33, Florida St. 21
South Florida (-1.5) vs Connecticut, 5PM PT, ESPN2
Connecticut is playing for the BCS while holding a 7-4 record. What a joke. That said, Jordan Todman will rush for his usual 150 yards that he seems to get every week in Big East play while seemingly leading an offense that can't score and the uncertain South Florida quarterback situation will take its toll and doom the Bulls.
Connecticut 20, South Florida 10
West Virginia (-20.5) vs Rutgers, 9AM PT, ABC
Too bad West Virginia went to sleep at the wheel in mid-October. They are the best team in the Big East even if the standings won't agree. Rutgers with its pop gun offense poses no threat to the only defense in college football to hold every opponent this season to 21 points or less. With that in mind, the West Virginia offense doesn't even need to be good to win this game (a good thing because it won't be).
West Virginia 24, Rutgers 7
Cincinnati (-1.5) vs Pittsburgh, 9AM PT, ESPN
What a difference a year makes. Last season, this game was winner take all with one of the better finishes of the season in a wild shootout. This season, if there is a shootout, I don't like Pittsburgh's chances to avoid 6-6 in a season where they started ranked and were expected to win the conference going away. That is never good for a coaches' job security. Too bad for Panther fans Cincinnati is involved and Cincinnati specializes in playing shootouts.
Cincinnati 38, Pittsburgh 30
Conference USA Championship Game – Central Florida (-9.5) vs SMU, 9AM PT, ESPN2
June Jones has done a great job at SMU, but he's not all the way there yet. His team is in this spot because Houston lost both of its quarterbacks in the UCLA debacle and Tulsa still has no defense to speak of. Take that away and this year is a nice lateral move. Central Florida on the other hand has been great (except for that hiccup against Southern Miss). George O'Leary has done a great job getting the program there on solid footing and playing at home, his team is going to win this easily.
Central Florida 42, SMU 27
MAC Championship Game – Northern Illinois (-17.5) vs Miami (OH) from Ford Field in Detroit, MI, 4PM PT Friday, ESPN2
Mike Haywood might should win the national coach of the year award for his turnaround job at Miami going from 1-11 his first year and getting shutout the first two games to 8-4 and the MAC title game this season. That said, he has no chance here. Northern Illinois is by far the best team in the MAC this season and its not close (just like most of NIU's conference games this season).
Northern Illinois 44, Miami (OH) 20
Fresno St. vs Illinois (-5.5), 615PM PT Friday, ESPN2
Yes, this is an oddball matchup for this time of year, but if its half as entertaining as last season's over 100 point shootout between these two, it will be worth checking in on. For a game like this, motivation is the main factor. Illinois has it and Fresno St. doesn't. Illinois is trying to get to the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day to get its shot at an SEC (probably coach Zook's old Gators) while Fresno St. can't really better its positioning no matter what the result is here. Motivation matters in these weird games, just like in bowl games. That and Scheelhaase and Leshore are better players than anyone on the Fresno St. roster.
Illinois 35, Fresno St. 17
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