Saturday night we have two major cards going head-to-head as Strikeforce crowns a top contender for its light heavyweight championship and the UFC crowns another Ultimate Fighter champion.
Strikeforce Predictions – Card airs live from Scottrade Center in St. Louis 7PM PT on Showtime
Dan Henderson vs Renato 'Babalu' Sobral
First of all, throw everything from the first match between these two completely out the window. It was ten years ago in a crazy Japanese promotion with different rules. Also, it was before Henderson realized he could knock people out and before Babalu really learned how to submit people in an MMA fight. In this fight there are three factors in play: Henderson's stand up advantage, Henderson's wrestling against Babalu's submission game and the age/wear and tear factor. Obviously, Henderson is the better striker. He is the only one who has one punch knockout power and his striking has been better than Babalu's for some time now. On the ground, the two will nullify each other as Henderson likely won't want this on the ground and Sobral may not be able to get it there. The age factor is more of a concern for Henderson. He is 40 and looked terrible in his last fight and while Sobral is no youngin at 35, he hasn't seemed to lose a step recently. At the end, I think Henderson takes the decision here. He won't get submitted on the ground when it does go there and while his wrestling isn't great anymore, Babalu isn't an incredible take down artist. Henderson may gas because of his age, but only after winning two rounds.
Henderson by decision
Paul Daley vs Scott Smith
Smith is in his first fight at 170. That bodes ill for him as he likely won't have the energy to pull off another comeback from the dead if he even survives long enough for that to matter. I fully expect Daley, with no threat of a take down from Smith to win easily. It's just a matter of how long it takes to finish it.
Daley by TKO round 2
Robbie Lawler vs Matt Lindland
Lindland is old and losing steam, a one-trick wrestler type of fighter, and has trouble with southpaws. Lawler is young, has decent take down defense (though bad submission defense once someone gets hi down) and is a southpaw. This won't be pretty for the old man.
Lawler by KO round 1
Antonio Silva vs Mike Kyle
Kyle is a light heavyweight fighting a 265 pounder on short notice without having any noticeably better skills. I'll quote Kid Nate of bloodyelbow.com here, “Silva should pillage Kyle like a Viking horde on vacation at an Irish monastery in 1066.”
Silva by TKO round 2
Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale
Stephan Bonnar vs Igor Pokrajac
Pokrajac is terrible and Bonnar is over the hill. Why is this the main event? Anyway, even an over the hill and no longer developing Bonnar should take this easily. It will likely be slow moving and boring on the way to a decision though.
Bonnar by decision
Jonathan Brookins vs Michael Johnson
This is a crap shoot just like all Ultimate Fighter Championship matches are. What we saw on the show and in the house doesn't much matter. There was no training camp there like there was here. Flip a coin and it comes up...
Brookins by decision
Kendall Grove vs Demian Maia
Grove is a possible upset winner here. Maia despite his reputation hasn't looked quite the same since getting his clock cleaned by Nate Marquart at UFC 102 in August 2009. His take downs that he was getting before haven't been there and his standup, while improving, still isn't great. Grove is inconsistent, but I think he will stuff the take down and then take a close controversial decision on the feet.
Grove by decision
Rick Story vs Johny Hendricks
Both are about equal in overall talent. Hendricks is the better wrestler though. Under those circumstances, always go with the wrestler by decision.
Hendricks by decision
Leonard Garcia vs Nam Phan
Is Phan significantly better than Garcia? No. Can Phan finish Garcia? No. Then Phan will lose because nearly every close decision that Garcia is involved in goes to Garcia.
Garcia by decision.
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