Top 10 teams in the BCS
1 Auburn
2 Oregon
3 Boise St.
4 TCU
5 Michigan St.
6 Missouri
7 Alabama
8 Utah
9 Oklahoma
10 Wisconsin
What it really means – the real national title picture. Teams higher up are closer to the title game if they win out
1 Auburn – An undefeated SEC Champion isn't going to get left out under any circumstances no matter what
2 Oregon – The Ducks are a strong number one in the polls and have room to improve in the computers which they will if they keep winning
3 Missouri – Missouri has two high profile games remaining, one this week at Nebraska and a possible Big 12 Title game along with a decent Kansas St. team. More than enough to jump Boise St., TCU and Michigan St. as the Big 12 is very strong in the computers
4 TCU – The howling from Big Ten territory if Michigan St. goes undefeated and doesn't pass TCU would be immense, but Baylor's ascension into the top 25 makes that win look much better along with Oregon St. and Utah. Michigan St. missing Ohio St. on the schedule in Big Ten play looks awful right now
5 Michigan St. - Already covered with no Ohio st. on schedule. Computer numbers are good now but could take a hit with weaker Purdue and Minnesota teams left on the schedule along with underachieving Penn St.
6 Boise St. - The voters seem to want the Broncos in the title game somehow if they can manage it. With most of the tougher WAC games coming (Fresno St., Hawaii and Nevada are all competent computer teams on par with the middle tier of most of the major conferences), the Broncos may not drop too much further in the computer component
7 Alabama – SEC fans will howl, but one-loss Tide aren't getting a major quality win in the SEC Title game and that hurts the chances if in fact Alabama runs the table
8 Utah – Utah simply won't jump Alabama even if they beat TCU and Notre Dame
9 Oklahoma – Win out and hope for chaos and an undefeated Missouri in the Big 12 Title game
10 Nebraska – Cornhuskers have the chance against Missouri to get back into the thick of things this week. After that, winning out with a win over Oklahoma is a must.
BCS Bowl Projections
National Title Game – Oregon vs Michigan St.
Ducks seem to be on cruise control heading into the toughest test of the season this Saturday at USC. Michigan St must win at Iowa, certainly possible if Wisconsin managed it, and then its downhill from there. I still don't think TCU is going to run the table impressive though they have been.
Rose Bowl – Boise St. vs Wisconsin
Boise will take the non-BCS Rose Bowl slot with a perfect record while Wisconsin is going to run the table with the toughest games behind them on the way to 11-1 and a Rose Bowl berth.
Orange Bowl – Virginia Tech vs Alabama
I still project Virginia Tech as the ACC Champion. Meanwhile, Alabama will be 10-2 with a win over Auburn allowing them to jump LSU (who will have the head-to-head win and also be 10-2) as the top at-large pick.
Sugar Bowl – Auburn vs Missouri
Auburn wins the SEC despite losing to Alabama (an Alabama loss at LSU in two weeks means an 11-0 Auburn would already have the West clinched going into the Iron Bowl) and faces Missouri who sneaks in over Nebraska despite a head-to-head loss because of a better record (Missouri will be 11-1 with only loss to Nebraska while Nebraska will be 11-2 with loss in Big 12 Title Game) and the nefarious unwritten bowl rule: if the bowl has an option, they prefer not to take a team coming off a lose in its final games because fans down on their team won't travel as well.
Fiesta Bowl – Oklahoma vs Pittsburgh
Oklahoma will win out to take the Big 12 while Pittsburgh seems to be rounding into form to takeover as the best of a sorry lot in the Big East.
Other at-large contenders by league after the jump
Pac-10
Stanford – If they finish 11-1, could easily be the pick over Wisconsin for the Rose Bowl.
Arizona – Victimized by the system, they need total carnage that isn't coming in the Big 12 to be an at-large team. Could beat Oregon to take the Pac-10 and head to the Rose Bowl though.
Big 12
Nebraska – Already covered in Sugar Bowl entry
Oklahoma St. - Not likely as an at-large, but winning out would equal the conference title and the Fiesta Bowl
Big Ten
Iowa – Really only a Rose Bowl contender. Can only be at-large by winning out and having Wisconsin take the league title and even then its a stretch with two losses
Ohio St. - Victim of a numbers game (leagues can only send two to the BCS) and not playing Michigan St. 11-1 might still send them to Orlando this season.
Michigan – Still with only two losses, the Wolverines are a possible team if they can win out. Its not likely, but they would be quite attractive to the bowls at 10-2
ACC and Big East
Conference Title or bust for all teams BCS chances
SEC
LSU – If they can beat Alabama and win out, they would be in great shape at 11-1, even without the division title.
Arkansas – Needs lots of help as even 10-2 would likely have them behind both Alabama schools in the pecking order.
Mississippi St. - Actually in better shape than Arkansas having Alabama left on the schedule. Unlikely, even more so than many of the others I have tagged as unlikely
Non-BCS League teams
TCU – 11-1 won't be good enough and still don't believe they will win at Utah
Utah – Ditto but looks like a better bet to beat Notre Dame than before. Still don't know how they will handle two big games in a row.
Nevada – 11-1 probably not good enough, but would be in the conversation with a win over Boise St. and an implosion not unlike what I am projecting in the Mountain West.
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