One of the biggest UFC events of the year is tomorrow night though it has received very little coverage and hype in the mainstream media compared to previous Brock Lesnar title defenses.
Main Event – Brock Lesnar vs Cain Velasquez
Lesnar is a huge beast of a fighter, but he only survived Carwin because of better cardio and that won't be a huge advantage here. I think Velasquez will frustrate Lesnar because of his excellent defensive wrestling and win decisively in the stand up eventually leading to a finish on the ground in the championship rounds.
Cain Velasquez by TKO round 4
Jake Shields vs Martin Kampmann
Kampmann has been close to a title shot before but blew it by having a bad gameplan against Paul Daley. Here, the problem won't be the gameplan but the opponent. Shields is going to control this fight and might actually get a finish with elbows on the ground available to him again after fighting in Strikeforce where elbow can't be used.
Shields by TKO round 2
Diego Sanchez vs Paulo Thiago
Sanchez has been overrated for quite some time and while Thiago is no world-beater, he is much better than Sanchez at this weight. That said, Sanchez has a chance if he can find some power, but with him openly talking about dropping back to 155, there is no way he wins here.
Thiago by decision
Matt Hamill vs Tito Ortiz
Ortiz isn't healthy. I'm not buying his statement that he is, and even if he is, there is that pesky ring rust thing to deal with. With no explosiveness, Ortiz can't work his takedowns and Hamill wins the fight in a boring decision.
Hamill by decision
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Brendan Schaub
Schaub is no top caliber heavyweight. Only top level heavyweights beat Gonzaga. That said, this fight involves Gabriel Gonzaga. It won't get out of round one no matter the winner.
Gonzaga by submission round 1
Ryan Jensen vs Court McGee
When in doubt, use the Joe Silva principle. The winner of this fight is whoever UFC matchmaker Joe Silva thinks in more marketable. McGee as an Ultimate Fighter winner is that guy.
McGee by decision
Patrick Cote vs Tom Lawlor
Cote is still recovering from his injuries suffered to his knee in the Anderson Silva fight, but that won't matter here. Lawlor isn't very good and Cote is an ex title challenger.
Cote by TKO round 2
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