A strong 8-3 week last week (the Texas Tech-Kansas game was added Friday after the original picks came out) brings the season record to 62-29.
A change this week. The slate of games outside of Texas Tech vs Texas and Florida vs Georgia is terrible. So terrible that I am completely uninterested in watching them or picking them. Only two games this week, but both with expanded analysis.
Game of the Week - Texas Tech vs Texas
Strengths for Texas
Colt McCoy - McCoy has been the best quarterback in the country so far. He is completing over 80% of his passes and will probably continue to carve up the Texas Tech defense like he has everyone else he has played.
Defensive Line - The defensive line destroyed the quick passing game of Missouri while the game was still in doubt and did just enough to hold the Oklahoma St. offense. They have generated a ton of pressure against opposing quarterbacks.
Coaching - Every major staff member has played a role in a national title (Muschamp at LSU in 2003. That experience cannot be underestimated.
Strengths for Texas Tech
Passing Game - Nobody has stopped this offense in over a year. Graham Harrell is the best a quarterback has looked in this system, ever, and that's saying something considering the numbers put up by previous trigger-men in this system. It helps to have Michael Crabtree, the best receiver in college football there to throw to as well.
Offensive Line - The Red Raiders have given up just 3 sacks all season (and two were in one drive during garbage time against Kansas last week) and have paved the way for the best running game of the Leach era in Lubbock.
Run Defense - The stats aren't great, but Texas Tech has clamped down on runners as needed so far. They will do so again, making sure Texas is the one-dimensional outfit it was against Oklahoma St. and not the still unbalanced but capable of running team they were against Oklahoma and Missouri.
Weaknesses for Texas
Pass Defense - The Texas secondary is still atrocious. Its a simple formula, keep the quarterback upright, throw all over Texas. Oklahoma did so to the tune of 35 points, all in the air. Missouri couldn't keep the quarterback upright and Oklahoma St. had issues with that too. Texas Tech will have no problem with that meaning the weakish Texas secondary will have to play its best game of the season.
Running Game - Colt McCoy is the leading rusher. While a strong runner, he is no Vince Young or Tim Tebow or Terrell Pryor on the ground. McCoy being the leading rusher is the main symptom of an underachieving running game.
Weaknesses for Texas Tech
Pass Defense - Nebraska and Texas A&M bombed away on these guys and stayed in the game (and Nebraska should have won in overtime). Texas is a few levels beyond those schools in the passing game.
Receivers - Texas has a blueprint for stopping this offense, last year's tape when, for three quarters, only Crabtree did anything. Bump the Texas Tech receivers at the line with talented corners (something lacking in the Big 12 this year), and they can get rattled (other than Crabtree who will need to be double covered).
X-Factor - The Running Game
In major rivalry games, whoever runs the ball usually wins. While not the main focus of these offenses, that will be the case here as whoever runs the ball better in the few attempts made to do so will win the game because it means the defense is off balance.
Intangibles Edge
Texas Tech is playing the biggest game in school history. They should be able to harness that momentum and the crowd in what should be a crazy environment.
Pick - Follow the Texas-Oklahoma guide I used. I said then that Oklahoma would win 7 of 10, but I had a feeling that this was one of the losses. Same here. Texas is the better team, but it just seems like Texas Tech's night.
Texas Tech 41, Texas 37
Undercard - Georgia vs Florida
Why Florida should win - The offense has clicked over the last two weeks leading to blowout victories over LSU and Kentucky. If that Florida offense shows up to complement the special teams and defense Florida has been playing all season, nobody in college football stands a chance.
Why Georgia should win - Florida's only games against decent defenses were games against Tennessee and Miami won with special teams and defense. The Georgia defense should shut the Florida offense down and the Georgia offense has been really, really good save for the first half against Alabama.
The reality of the situation - Both teams are probably overrated. Both teams reputations are built on the SEC (which is down this season and not the best conference like usual) and in particular built on beating LSU, one of the most overrated teams in the country. Florida has great special teams and added motivation, but Georgia has been more consistent and seems like they have a higher gear still to be reached. They will reach that level after falling behind early.
The Pick - Georgia 35, Florida 34
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