College Football Picks

The strange week with two big games and nothing else really important (unless you love the ACC) turned into one of the best of the season. I went 1-1 on my expanded picks with Texas Tech winning and Georgia playing about as bad as I have seen a Georgia team play. That brings my season record to 63-31. This week brings one of the better looking schedules of the season with 6 matchups of ranked opponents.

Game of the Week - Texas Tech vs Oklahoma St.
I understand that LSU-Alabama has a bigger storyline (hence College Gameday in Baton Rouge), but this is the bigger game. The Cowboys are continuing their run of the gauntlet with another road game. Both of the previous ones (Missouri and Texas) have been tight games with lower than expected scores. I expect this to follow the same pattern. Ultimately, Texas Tech won't max out again, but Oklahoma St. won't be able to on the road. The teams are even, and if the execute even;y, give the edge to the home team, barely
Texas Tech 31, Oklahoma St. 30

LSU vs Alabama
LSU is still way overrated. Alabama will prove that in this game. I expect the Alabama offense to shred the LSU defense (not unlike what they did to Georgia, but it won't be that bad at halftime). LSU's offense with its inexperienced quarterbacks will stay in it for awhile before finally falling by the wayside early in the 3rd (like their defeat against Georgia).
Alabama 38, LSU 24

USC vs Cal
There are two major problems for Cal in this game. First, the game is in November. USC hasn't lost a game in November under Carroll. Second, Cal is currently ranked. When USC plays ranked teams, bad things usually happen to opponent because USC comes in very focused. Since the middle of 2002 (when USC lost to Kansas St. and Washington St. on the road), the only ranked teams to beat USC are Texas in the Vince Young Rose Bowl and Oregon last year in Sanchez's first road start. Cal won't be the third. They aren't good enough at quarterback to stay in this game.
USC 27, Cal 7

Utah vs TCU
When TCU beat BYU, I said I wasn't sue who was the best team, but I was picking with the home team in the Thursday game coming off the short week. The same logic applies here. Teams coming off short week's just don't win Thursday road games unless they are significantly better or had a bye week before the game. Neither of those applies here.
Utah 20, TCU 13

Northwestern vs Ohio St.
Ohio St. needs to pay attention or this will be trouble. The Buckeyes are favored, but Northwestern is pretty good and still could reach the Rose Bowl with the right results. I expect the early kickoff to help Northwestern as well. Ohio St., while still winning, hasn't performed very well in these morning kickoffs (see sluggish against Ohio, Troy, and Purdue). I expect the same here. If Bacher were completely healthy or Kafka had more experience at quarterback, I might pick the upset, but I just can't pull the trigger on it.
Ohio St. 17, Northwestern 10

North Carolina vs Georgia Tech
Another big game in figuring out who is going to the BCS from the ACC. With Georgia Tech's left tackle out injured and North Caroina being strong against the run, I expect North Carolina to win at home.
North Carolina 21, Georgia Tech 14

Virginia Tech vs Maryland
The only one loss team in the ACC is about to have two. A road Thursday game at Virginia Tech is about as sure a path to an ACC loss as you get and I am confident in the Hokies despite possibly not having either of their top quarterbacks and Maryland's bipolar play this season.
Virginia Tech 17, Maryland 7

West Virginia vs Cincinnati
Cincinnati is a good team, but not a great one. West Virginia might finally be hitting its stride after the slow start. I expect the Mountaineers to start slowly (again), but stay in the game and pull away in the second half.
West Virginia 31, Cincinnati 17

Vanderbilt vs Florida
Unbelievably, Vanderbilt can put itself in the SEC East lead once again with a win. Meanwhile, Florida is trying to stay in the national title chase at a place where they have traditionally struggled and won ugly. It was a close call on the road in this game in both 1996 and 2006. That will be the same story here, but the score won't reflect it too much because the Vanderbilt offense is as inept as many of their conference brethren (including Auburn, Tennessee, and Mississippi St.).
Florida 31, Vanderbilt 3

Iowa vs Penn St.
Iowa stinks. They have 5 wins because of the weakness of their conference and it will show here. Penn St., even in a hostile environment, wins big.
Penn St. 41, Iowa 13